Apple may see royalties from Cingular subscriber growth

[AppleInsider]

Apple could see added perks from its exclusive iPhone distribution deal with Cingular, such as royalty payouts for helping to grow the wireless carrier's subscriber base.

According to Citigroup Investment Research analyst Michael Rollins, the Cupertino-based iPhone maker could receive as much as $250 - $300 for each subscriber it helps lure to Cingular's network beginning this June. The payouts would likely come over the life of the service contracts and represent very high-margin revenue for Apple, he said.

Rollins noted that the deal would be similar to an arrangement already in place between Cingular and Radio Shack, where the electronics retailer earns roughly $300 in total for closing new service contracts.

Although the terms of Apple's exclusive deal with Cingular have not been made public, the wireless carrier may be hoping to leverage such an incentive program with Apple to help offset expected declines in subscriber growth over the next few years.

After rising by an average of 25 percent in 2004, 2005 and 2006, global mobile phone subscriber growth is expected to fall to 12.8 percent in 2007, according to a research report released this week by iSuppli. The firm said the slowdown will continue in the years to come, with subscriber growth dropping to 9.6 percent in 2008, to 7 percent in 2009 and to 5.7 percent in 2010.

"The slowdown in new subscriber growth and the deceleration in mobile-phone sales translates directly into deteriorating market conditions for wireless carriers," said Dr. Jagdish Rebello, director and principal analyst for iSuppli. "Carriers and their mobile phone suppliers need new strategies to counter the impact of this phenomenon."

With fewer new subscribers to be found worldwide, carriers such as Cingular are also expected to focus on squeezing more revenue out of customers by offering enhanced services such as Internet access, mobile television and music playback capability.

For iPhone subscribers, some of these added costs are likely to arise in the form of monthly Internet data service packages, which will be required alongside standard service agreements and the initial cost of the $500+ device.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[Tommo_UK]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Apple could see added perks from its exclusive iPhone distribution deal with Cingular, such as royalty payouts for helping to grow the wireless carrier's subscriber base.]

I worked this out about 2 weeks ago and posted it.. as usual, Citigroup are late to the party, and yet again prove incapable of providing realistic estimates:

If Apple do have a revenue sharing arrangement with Cingular, and they do intend to sell 10m iPhones, then they will have to include guidance for such income in their Q-ahead numbers. If they get just $5/month per subscriber (which is about what RIMM get for their Blackberry email service from the networks), then as I've pointed out, that's 10m * $60 = $600m. That's pure profit - it will go straight into earnings - translating to about 40-50c in FY earnings in 2008/9 (or about a 15% boost to profits).

I can't stress this enough: 10m iPhones is a done deal or SJ wouldn't have mentioned the figure. That's $6 billion in revenue - about enough to add $1.50 to FY08 earnings - that's about 1 35-50% boost to profits - (or somewhat less if you assume a lot of those may be sold after the launch while still in FY07). On top of that, you can add another 50c from subscriber revenue sharing to FY08/09. So in total, the iPhone could be bringing in an additional $2 to FY08 earnings estimates - enough for a 65% earnings surprise for the year.

Its laughable - simply laughable - that this hasn't been more widely picked up in all the analysis. SJ would not just pluck anticipated sales out of thin air. Its a done deal, or as good as, or he wouldn't have mentioned it. Thus the earnings for FY08 are also a "done deal." You know what analysts are still estimating for FY08, having not adjusted their estimates after raising FY07 through the roof? A (sorry I'm giggling) 15% increase in earnings over FY07.

And that's if they only sell the expected 10m. What if they sell 15m? Or 20m?

Insane! I say a 60% earnings surprise for FY08 from here at a bare minimum. Possibly as high as 100%.

[CosmoNut]

Yeah, when the market gets SO saturated with phones that damn near everyone has one, you might see a downturn in growth. I suppose pulling subscribers from another carrier (because you are the only service with the iPhone) might help.

I'm really wondering how successful this little device is going to be. I think it could be successful but take a long time -- possibly longer than the iPod took -- to get widely accepted. At that point, however, Cingular won't be the only carrier in town to sell them, I bet.

[addabox]

With that kind of money coming in from ATT I wish Apple had used a bit of it to moderate the price of the iPhone.

I realize it doesn't really work that way, profit is profit, but...... damn. $300 per subscriber on top of $600 for the phone? I can see why Radio Shack might get a cut for acting as a reseller, but they don't make phones.

Also, are their any more ominous words than "With fewer new subscribers to be found worldwide, carriers such as Cingular are also expected to focus on squeezing more revenue out of customers....."

This is what lock-in does. Once the era of rapid expansion of the subscriber base is over, carriers have no incentive to try and attract customers with improved services or lower prices because movement between carriers is artificially restricted.

So instead they figure out ways to nickel and dime you.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by CosmoNut

I'm really wondering how successful this little device is going to be. I think it could be successful but take a long time -- possibly longer than the iPod took -- to get widely accepted. At that point, however, Cingular won't be the only carrier in town to sell them, I bet.

I disagree, this is going to take off in a big time. I predict 18M worldwide will happen long before 2008 comes to a close.

The media jumped on this so much that even my parents know a good deal about the soon-to-be-released iPhone. Hell, even SNL had an iPhone skit less than a week after it was announced.

I, for one, am going back to Cingular (a carrier I used and despised several years ago) and I'm finally getting a "smartphone" (something I've never really had an overwhelming interest to buy) all because of the iPhone.






PS: I'm going to the WWDC this year. I can finally see a keynote in person. Yee-F@#king-Haw for me.

[Porchland]

Originally Posted by CosmoNut

I'm really wondering how successful this little device is going to be. I think it could be successful but take a long time -- possibly longer than the iPod took -- to get widely accepted. At that point, however, Cingular won't be the only carrier in town to sell them, I bet.

I don't know. If the exclusivity is truly five years as reported and if AT&T/Cingular sells as many as they seem to think they will, they will have every incentive to re-up the exclusivity with Apple at the end of five years.

This could either be a head start for AT&T/Cingular or the beginning of a longterm exclusive alliance; I wouldn't just assume the other carriers will be on board in a few years.

[BlackSummerNight]

I'm agreeing with the other poster. I'm wondering how many people, besides non Mac fans will buy this. This is a very pricey device. Cingular is banking that people will break their contract to get this phone, but I don't see this happening. I'm sure this phone will be nice, but 18M before 08 is a reach. You've got to know that cell phones around the world are already more advanced. I'm getting one, but it's because I want to sync with itunes so I don't have to encode all my movies manually for my Windows smartphone.

Originally Posted by solipsism

I disagree, this is going to take off in a big time. I predict 18M worldwide will happen long before 2008 comes to a close.

The media jumped on this so much that even my parents know a good deal about the soon-to-be-released iPhone. Hell, even SNL had an iPhone skit less than a week after it was announced.

I, for one, am going back to Cingular (a carrier I used and despised several years ago) and I'm finally getting a "smartphone" (something I've never really had an overwhelming interest to buy) all because of the iPhone.






PS: I'm going to the WWDC this year. I can finally see a keynote in person. Yee-F@#king-Haw for me.

[TenoBell]

This report is lumping the iPhone to the fate of the general mobile phone market and its something quite different. The general feature phone market that gives away free phones with a two year plan is different from the smartphone market. The feature phone market is becoming saturated and will face a slow down, but the smartphone market has been growing are a faster rate.

The iPhone is more than only a mobile phone in the strictest sense I don't know if there really is a category for the iPhone. Its potential uses exceed current smartphones and is closer to the UMPC market. Except it does not literally take a desktop and shrink to a small device.

[TenoBell]

You've got to know that cell phones around the world are already more advanced.

There are different ways of looking at more advanced. A phone may have a lot of advanced features. But if you have to toggle through endless submenus and dialogue boxes to use much of its functionality, that makes using these advanced features an unpleasant experience. To simplify the actual use of the features that makes the over all experience of using the phone easy is just as important as the features themselves.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

"The slowdown in new subscriber growth and the deceleration in mobile-phone sales translates directly into deteriorating market conditions for wireless carriers," .... "Carriers and their mobile phone suppliers need new strategies to counter the impact of this phenomenon."

I like how they describe the deteriorating mobile phone market condition as a "phenomenon" when actually it has a very obvious cause. The mobile phone service providers are crooks. Their contracts are full of hidden costs, their customer service is terrible (I am speaking of verizon and at&t) and their billing is equally confusing. They charge you for the "right" to move your cell number to a new provider. When I was with verizon, I had the service rep tell me point blank, that when I make a phone call to someone else's cell on my plan (had free mobile to mobile), between 9am to 9pm, they took that out of my anytime minutes - not my m2m minutes. If that isn't crooked, I don't know what is.

Money is tight, people are cutting costs out of their budget. They are tired of signing $50/mo contracts and getting billed $80+ a month. No "phenomenon" here.

[physguy]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

There are different ways of looking at more advanced. A phone may have a lot of advanced features. But if you have to toggle through endless submenus and dialogue boxes to use much of its functionality, that makes using these advanced features an unpleasant experience. To simplify the actual use of the features that makes the over all experience of using the phone easy is just as important as the features themselves.

The other half of this is 'advanced to what user'? I still believe that Apple's strategy is not to 'take' part of the current smart phone market but to create/access a new easy-to-use smart phone market!! This market is potentially larger than the current smart market and, believe me, there are plenty of people out there that will pay $100's of dollars for something that they can easily use but these same people wouldn't put that money out for the current crop of phones.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by solipsism

The media jumped on this so much that even my parents know a good deal about the soon-to-be-released iPhone. Hell, even SNL had an iPhone skit less than a week after it was announced.

You're right. I was talking with friends (windows only users) over the weekend, and they were talking about wanting the new iPhone. Whether they buy one or not - I don't know. But I know that the *known* features of this new iPhone is enough for me to purchase one - even if it means I have to go back to at&t (rat bastards).

[melgross]

Originally Posted by addabox

With that kind of money coming in from ATT I wish Apple had used a bit of it to moderate the price of the iPhone.

I realize it doesn't really work that way, profit is profit, but...... damn. $300 per subscriber on top of $600 for the phone? I can see why Radio Shack might get a cut for acting as a reseller, but they don't make phones.

Also, are their any more ominous words than "With fewer new subscribers to be found worldwide, carriers such as Cingular are also expected to focus on squeezing more revenue out of customers....."

This is what lock-in does. Once the era of rapid expansion of the subscriber base is over, carriers have no incentive to try and attract customers with improved services or lower prices because movement between carriers is artificially restricted.

So instead they figure out ways to nickel and dime you.

This is just speculation. People have to stop accepting speculation as fact.

We may never know if this is true. If we do, it will take months.

[Benton]

If this referral fee occurs, there goes the preferred rate plan some people have speculated about. Some have thought a lower contract price might help offset higher initial costs.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

This report is lumping the iPhone to the fate of the general mobile phone market and its something quite different. The general feature phone market that gives away free phones with a two year plan is different from the smartphone market. The feature phone market is becoming saturated and will face a slow down, but the smartphone market has been growing are a faster rate.

The iPhone is more than only a mobile phone in the strictest sense I don't know if there really is a category for the iPhone. Its potential uses exceed current smartphones and is closer to the UMPC market. Except it does not literally take a desktop and shrink to a small device.

In what way is this more than a smart-phone?

My Treo 700p does everything this does except for WiFi. Being on Sprint, I can also watch live tv, should I be interested.

When I go to buy a program, and I have many, I don't have to get what is filtered through Palm. I can choose among thousands.

I also have two book readers, and keep about two dozen books on my memory card at any one time.

I won't argue the ergonomics of the iPhone, or the better screen, and hopefully, better keyboard, but that doesn't make it "more" than a smart-phone. jobs was very insistent that it be considered as a phone, not a computer.

I also use Sprints far faster data service.

Perhaps, sometime in the future, it will be different. But, we can only go by what we know, anything else is not valid.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Wally

I like how they describe the deteriorating mobile phone market condition as a "phenomenon" when actually it has a very obvious cause. The mobile phone service providers are crooks. Their contracts are full of hidden costs, their customer service is terrible (I am speaking of verizon and at&t) and their billing is equally confusing. They charge you for the "right" to move your cell number to a new provider. When I was with verizon, I had the service rep tell me point blank, that when I make a phone call to someone else's cell on my plan (had free mobile to mobile), between 9am to 9pm, they took that out of my anytime minutes - not my m2m minutes. If that isn't crooked, I don't know what is.

Money is tight, people are cutting costs out of their budget. They are tired of signing $50/mo contracts and getting billed $80+ a month. No "phenomenon" here.

Another cynic!

It has nothing to do with the fact that you don't want to spend any money for the services you want.

It has to do with the simple fact that as more people get cells, there are less people as a percentage of the population left who don't have them.

That causes a slowdown in growth. It happens in every area, not just here.

If something new comes out, and one person buys it out of a total of ten people, that's the minimum. when the next person buys one, it's 100% growth. When two more buy it, that's 100% growth again. But, if three more people buy it, the growth is now 75%, even though more people bought it than before.

But that now leaves just three more people. What happens to the growth rate? Even if you add an additional person to the number each year, the growth rate will be much less than before, and dropping.

[BlackSummerNight]

i don't know what smartphone you've used, but none that I've used had "endless submeus". But looking at who Apple is trying to attract with this phone, which I believe is the tech savy consumer, the price seems high. But it'll take the iPod route and get less expensive as the years pass.

Originally Posted by TenoBell

There are different ways of looking at more advanced. A phone may have a lot of advanced features. But if you have to toggle through endless submenus and dialogue boxes to use much of its functionality, that makes using these advanced features an unpleasant experience. To simplify the actual use of the features that makes the over all experience of using the phone easy is just as important as the features themselves.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by Tommo_UK

Insane! I say a 60% earnings surprise for FY08 from here at a bare minimum. Possibly as high as 100%.

And that's not including iPhone junior.

[physguy]

Originally Posted by BlackSummerNight

i don't know what smartphone you've used, but none that I've used had "endless submeus". But looking at who Apple is trying to attract with this phone, which I believe is the tech savy consumer, the price seems high. But it'll take the iPod route and get less expensive as the years pass.

But what is a 'tech savy consumer'??? Is it the 'geek' that can either already do everything or figure it out, or is it the 'savy user' that what to make use of the latest tech without have to dig down and do the equivalent of 'sudo make me a sandwich'. (And yes I know there is no command-line or sudo on the smart phone but its just hyperbole to get the point across) I think the later is what this phone is targeting. Users who could make use of this high-tech functionality but either don't want to, or don't have time to move up the learning curve on the current phones. This is always a hard market to appreciate for those who are the current tech users (and producers) because all the current actions and requirement seem obvious and simple to them.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by Tommo_UK

Insane! I say a 60% earnings surprise for FY08 from here at a bare minimum. Possibly as high as 100%.

Nice analysis.

Of course, it is now not a surprise any more, is it? (Here's hoping analysts don't bother with posts in Ai! 8)

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by CosmoNut

I'm really wondering how successful this little device is going to be. I think it could be successful but take a long time -- possibly longer than the iPod took -- to get widely accepted.

For a start every famous musician, movie star and millionaire will get one, not to mention most well known techies. That should be enough to get most of the planet at least interested in the device. Most people who own a Mac have an interest in the device too, and all owners of iPod's and phones might be; "look at this device". I think this iPhone will do alright.

[Johnny Mozzarella]

So to summarize...
Just about everyone is saying they are going to get one but they are skeptical if it is going to be successful.

I wonder If the kickback from Cingular only applies if the new customer signs up through an Apple retail store? Or if it will be tiered...$300 if Apple signs them up...only $150 if Cingular signs them up.

Also I'm so looking forward to the carriers trying to squeeze even more profits out of customers to compensate for declining growth. Isn't the future glorious?

History will repeat itself just like the iPod.
I remember friends saying "You spent how much for a MP3 player?!?!?! My CD walkman only cost $99!"
But then I pull my iPod out of my pocket and let them try it out.
Once they get it in their hands and caress the scroll wheel, their jaw drops and the drool starts to flow.
Before long they decide to get one and they start telling their friends about it.
And so the circle of life is complete.

[quinney]

Originally Posted by Porchland

I don't know. If the exclusivity is truly five years as reported and if AT&T/Cingular sells as many as they seem to think they will, they will have every incentive to re-up the exclusivity with Apple at the end of five years.

This could either be a head start for AT&T/Cingular or the beginning of a longterm exclusive alliance; I wouldn't just assume the other carriers will be on board in a few years.

During the exclusivity period, WiFi/WiMax networks will continue to roll out
at an accelerated rate across the US. It could be that in five years there will be
a satisfactory nationwide mobile VOIP capability in place. If it turns out that
way, Apple may not have to partner with a traditional phone company at all.

[TenoBell]

i don't know what smartphone you've used, but none that I've used had "endless submeus". But looking at who Apple is trying to attract with this phone, which I believe is the tech savy consumer, the price seems high. But it'll take the iPod route and get less expensive as the years pass.

I'll give an example.

To open a web link on the Blackberry. You use the scroll wheel to toggle up or down to highlight the link. You press the scroll wheel, that opens a drop down menu. You use the scroll wheel to toggle down the menu to "get the link". You press the scroll wheel and the link is opened. On top of that because the Blackberry does not support all web protocols parts of the web page will not be shown.

As demonstrated on the iPhone. To open a web link you press the link with your finger and it opens. Why would this need to be targeted to the tech savvy? It gets no more simple.

[CosmoNut]

Anyone else becoming deathly afraid of the dark overlord of communications that AT&T is becoming (again)? Let's look at what services they want to offer you:

Home Telephone (with long distance)
Cell Phone (with data)
High Speed Internet (with e-mail)
Satellite TV (until they can offer...)
IPTV

AT&T frightens me. There really is something appealing about not putting all my "eggs" in AT&T's "basket".

[Johnny Mozzarella]

Originally Posted by melgross

In what way is this more than a smart-phone?

My Treo 700p does everything this does except for WiFi. Being on Sprint, I can also watch live tv, should I be interested.

When I go to buy a program, and I have many, I don't have to get what is filtered through Palm. I can choose among thousands.

I also have two book readers, and keep about two dozen books on my memory card at any one time.

I won't argue the ergonomics of the iPhone, or the better screen, and hopefully, better keyboard, but that doesn't make it "more" than a smart-phone. jobs was very insistent that it be considered as a phone, not a computer.

I also use Sprints far faster data service.

Perhaps, sometime in the future, it will be different. But, we can only go by what we know, anything else is not valid.

Average phone = phone + PDA functions
Treo 700p = PDA + phone
iPhone = computer + phone

[melgross]

Originally Posted by CosmoNut

Anyone else becoming deathly afraid of the dark overlord of communications that AT&T is becoming (again)? Let's look at what services they want to offer you:

Home Telephone (with long distance)
Cell Phone (with data)
High Speed Internet (with e-mail)
Satellite TV (until they can offer...)
IPTV

AT&T frightens me. There really is something appealing about not putting all my "eggs" in AT&T's "basket".

The FCC's agreement that broke up AT&T was fine at the time. But, around the world, these companies are simply getting bigger and bigger. to compete with that, US companies have to merge again. Good, bad? Whatever.

[Neruda]

Originally Posted by melgross

In what way is this more than a smart-phone?

My Treo 700p does everything this does...

Everything? Your Treo has multi-touch and runs OS X?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella

Average phone = phone + PDA functions
Treo 700p = PDA + phone
iPhone = computer + phone

I will repeat. It is NOT a computer. What can this do, as a computer, that my 700p can't?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Neruda

Everything? Your Treo has multi-touch and runs OS X?

That has nothing to do with it.

Wake up!

OS X is Apple's OS, The Palm OS is on mine. Multitouch has nothing to do with it being a computer or not. If you read my earlier post, I granted that the iPhone has a better "keyboard".

[quinney]

Originally Posted by CosmoNut

Anyone else becoming deathly afraid of the dark overlord of communications that AT&T is becoming (again)? Let's look at what services they want to offer you:

Home Telephone (with long distance)
Cell Phone (with data)
High Speed Internet (with e-mail)
Satellite TV (until they can offer...)
IPTV

AT&T frightens me. There really is something appealing about not putting all my "eggs" in AT&T's "basket".

I hear you. With their recent acquisition of Bell South, they have gone a long way toward
reassembling the original AT&T, which was broken up for being monopolistic. Note, however,
that your model for the future has everything they offer going over high speed internet.
The home phone and cell phone will eventually be made obsolete by VOIP phones, and
as you state, satellite TV will be made obso by IPTV. If the only thing they charged me
for was high speed internet, it would be a single monthly fee rather than the confusing
complicated menu they currently use. Plus, I believe there will be several competitors who
will offer high speed internet as well. It will be much harder for them to be a monopoly
this time, than it was with the original AT&T with land line telephones.

This all assumes that we have "net neutrality", which everyone should make an effort
to support. Without it, big companies still would control too much.

[mmmdoughnuts]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

The iPhone is more than only a mobile phone in the strictest sense I don't know if there really is a category for the iPhone. Its potential uses exceed current smartphones and is closer to the UMPC market. Except it does not literally take a desktop and shrink to a small device.

Everyone repeat after me. THIS IS A PHONE! It may have the functionality beyond what typical or even current phones have, but the iPhone is just that, a phone. Anybody want proof. Try to use it with out a contract with a cellular service (ie Cingular/ATT). It won't work. Apple doesn't tell you what you can and cannot do with your Mac once it is yours. Your mac doesn't stop working if you for some reason you don't pay Apple 5 years down the road; Apple and ATT restrict what you can do with the phone and worse - they disable it (so you must throw your $500 in the crapper) when you stop paying the monthly extortion.

[TenoBell]

In what way is this more than a smart-phone?

First and foremost it uses OS X with applicable API's. Symbian, Palm, nor RIMM are not built on that type of foundation. Linux and WinCE are the only two that could adapt to become more of what the iPhone can be.

None of the current smartphones are designed to optimize human interaction with graphics the way that iPhone does. You don't control the software through buttons you touch the software itself. None of the current smartphones are built to be so graphically amorphous which inherently lends it self to various types of software.

When I go to buy a program, and I have many, I don't have to get what is filtered through Palm. I can choose among thousands.

A lesson that seems to resonate through electronics choice without a unifying vision does not really create the best end result.

Perhaps, sometime in the future, it will be different. But, we can only go by what we know, anything else is not valid.

I agree we can only speculate at the moment. But the signs are pretty clear. The iPhone will be an important platform for Apple. Its importance was highlighted being the only new product showcased at MWSF.

Some people were disappointed because they feel Apple only showed a phone. But this is more than only a phone.

[Neruda]

Originally Posted by melgross

That has nothing to do with it.
Multitouch has nothing to do with it being a computer or not. If you read my earlier post, I granted that the iPhone has a better "keyboard".

I understand your point: you can do everything on your treo that you can on the iPhone. But from a functionality standpoint there is no difference between a hammer and a rock (both can be used to hammer nails), but that doesn't make them funtionally equal...

My point was not that multi-touch makes the iPhone a computer (perhaps others are arguing this, I am not). I'm just questioning your assertion that your Treo can do everything the iPhone can. The treo does not have multi-touch, so in that specific regard your generalization is wrong.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by melgross

It has nothing to do with the fact that you don't want to spend any money for the services you want.

Um. Excuse me, but I am more than willing to pay for services I want, but when their contracts state you have a particular set of minutes (m2m - anytime etc.) and they pull from the most expensive set of minutes first (to rack your bill up), that is crooked. I hardly use my current plan which is worth about $50/mo - yet my phone bill is regularly $80+.

Originally Posted by melgross

It has to do with the simple fact that as more people get cells, there are less people as a percentage of the population left who don't have them.

Yeah. Thanks for the economics lesson.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by CosmoNut

Anyone else becoming deathly afraid of the dark overlord of communications that AT&T is becoming (again)?

Completely. I was blown away when they merged with SBC. I guess the DOJ has better things to do other than it's job.

[TenoBell]

Repeat after me. THIS IS A PHONE! It may have the functionality beyond what typical or even current phones have, but the iPhone is just that, a phone.

Yes it is a phone, yes a lot of its functionality is already in current phones. Lets say communication is the killer app. Ultimately that is what a computer and internet are mostly used for is communications in various ways.

What I'm simply saying is that Apple created a device that is optimized for various types of communication outside of wireless voice communication. They have done so in a way that is evolutionary and easier to use than most of the current devices.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

First and foremost it uses OS X with applicable API's. Symbian, Palm, nor RIMM are not built on that type of foundation. Linux and WinCE are the only two that could adapt to become more of what the iPhone can be.

But, that's not true. While I don't use CE or Symbian, the Palm has all of the relevent API's. Show me differently.

OS X mobile, or whatever it is is no different.

My Palm can be used on the internet. I can buy any program anyone cares to write for it. I can get full sized keyboards. It can print to printers. I can listen to music or watch video. I can do my own programming if I become a developer. It has a camera, and I can manipulate the images, with the proper program.

What can't I do that the iPhone, used as a computer, which Jobs insists it's not, can do?

None of the current smartphones are designed to optimize human interaction with graphics the way that iPhone does. You don't control the software through buttons you touch the software itself. None of the current smartphones are built to be so graphically amorphous which inherently lends it self to various types of software.

That means nothing. It's just the interface, which while great, doesn't give it any more computing abilities.

In fact, because it won't allow you to use anything other than a finger, it is FAR more limited than the one on my Palm. That is something that has disappointed me. I have drawing programs, which I use when barnstorming ideas. How can I do something like that on the iPhone, with just finger touch?

It eliminates possibilities that I have on my Treo.

A lesson that seems to resonate through electronics choice without a unifying vision does not really create the best end result.

I don't know what that's supposed to mean. It seems as though the vision is limited to a smartphone right now.

I agree we can only speculate at the moment. But the signs are pretty clear. The iPhone will be an important platform for Apple. Its importance was significant was highlighted as it being the only new product showcased at MWSF.

Some people were disappointed because they feel Apple only showed a phone. But this is more than only a phone.

It's not more than a phone right now. When it comes out, what will we be able to get with it? How many programs will be available? What kinds? Will Apple limit them to what Apple thinks we should have? What about keyboards, printers, exchanging information, programs, and phone data wirelessly? Will we be able to do that?

If we're able to get on the internet, why can't we just go to the iTunes store and buy content? Will they be monitoring our movements online?

Lots of questions.

There are too many questions that have to be answered. Jobs insists it is just a phone, as he has been doing, then we might find ourselves being restricted to what he thinks is appropriate, and you know just how determined he can be about that. He's screwed up products before when people started to do things with them that he didn't want.

Remember the original iMacs? They had that "porch" connector that companies were using to expand the unit's capability? Remember how he had it removed?

I'm sure others can point out many instances when he stopped something that went beyond what he wanted.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Neruda

I understand your point: you can do everything on your treo that you can on the iPhone. But from a functionality standpoint there is no difference between a hammer and a rock (both can be used to hammer nails), but that doesn't make them funtionally equal...

My point was not that multi-touch makes the iPhone a computer (perhaps others are arguing this, I am not). I'm just questioning your assertion that your Treo can do everything the iPhone can. The treo does not have multi-touch, so in that specific regard your generalization is wrong.

Your not talking about functionality. You're talking about convenience, pleasure.

I grant all that. It has a great interface—for most things, though there are troubling holes.

You are confusing multi-touch with something else. Multi-touch is of a great help in the interface, but does nothing else. It doesn't make this phone any more computer-like. It makes the keyboard work better. It makes it somewhat easier to select or resize something. But, there is nothing fundimental that it adds.

The lack of the ability to use a stylus is a BIG loss if this is to be thought of as a computer.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Wally

Um. Excuse me, but I am more than willing to pay for services I want, but when their contracts state you have a particular set of minutes (m2m - anytime etc.) and they pull from the most expensive set of minutes first (to rack your bill up), that is crooked. I hardly use my current plan which is worth about $50/mo - yet my phone bill is regularly $80+.

Everything may not be rosy, but billions are already using cell plans across the world, and the plans are no worse than anything else.

Remember it took quite a while for broadband to kick out the monthly minute plans from the ISP's. This might happen as well. A lot of those fees are various taxes. It's a pain all around, but I don't see anyone being ripped off wholesale.

Yeah. Thanks for the economics lesson.

Happy to have been of help.