Goldman: iPhone to drive 'next big growth phase' for Apple

[AppleInsider]

Following a recent buying intention survey, investment bank Goldman Sach said it is increasingly confident in its estimates that Apple will sell more than 14 million iPhones through the 2008 holiday shopping season.

The survey, conducted in the US, UK, China, and India, found that the number of potential iPhone buyers is equivalent to 75 percent of the installed base of current iPod owners, with just under half of the potential buyers coming from respondents who have never owned an iPod.

In the US, 71 percent of respondents indicated interest in a potential Apple mobile phone, analyst David Bailey told clients, noting that the survey took place before the iPhone was unveiled in January.

Overall, Apple ranked as the No. 4 most desired handset brand in the US -- again, the results coming before the formal demonstration of iPhone, which broadly exceeded expectations.

"Some of the concerns about the unwillingness of consumers to switch carriers to get the handset they want seem misplaced, with 30 percent of UK respondents and 15 percent in the US suggesting that they would switch," Bailey wrote.

He said the results offer increased confidence that Apple will meet his previous sales estimates of at least 4 million units in 2007 and 10.5 million in 2008.

In his analysis, Bailey assumed 25 percent video iPod cannibalization in 2007 and 50 percent in 2008, concluding that iPhone alone could add an incremental 4 to 5 percent to Apple’s revenue growth in those two years.

"We think that iPhone starts the next big growth phase for Apple," he wrote, "making it a core holding, and believe that the stock should be bought on dips prior to the product’s launch in June."

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[EruIthildur]

I disagree that the iPhone will cut into iPod sales that much... I still plan on getting a big honkin' iPod for my music and an iPhone for my phone when glitches are ironed out and they open it to developers a little bit... At least the widgets.

I wonder what the query basis of the survey was?

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by EruIthildur

I disagree that the iPhone will cut into iPod sales that much... I still plan on getting a big honkin' iPod for my music and an iPhone for my phone when glitches are ironed out and they open it to developers a little bit... At least the widgets.

I don't think cannibalization is a valid concern anyway. A business has to obsolete their own products before someone else does. A business that rests on its laurels is a danger to itself.

I think there's always going to be some market for a dedicated product, but the question is how soon the integrated device is broadly preferred over a dedicated one simply on convenience, weight and so on.

[SpamSandwich]

A phone... an e-mail communications device... a cheese grater... THESE ARE NOT THREE SEPARATE DEVICES!

But seriously, if it weren't for at&t's service requirement, I'd certainly want an iPhone for myself. I'll wait it out with my new Samsung... for now. If a new, very cool iPod with multi-touch were introduced, however, I'd buy one tomorrow.

[freeny]

With the tiny hard drive size of the iPhone compared to that of a video iPod, I dont see very much cannibalization here. The iPhone does not fill my video iPod requirements and the iPod video does not fill my phone requirements. I would need both.

I am very confused as to why analysts feel there will be so much cannibalism...
How does 8gigs qualify as a "video iPod?"

[Sunbow]

There does seem to be a greater willingness here in the UK to swap mobile supplier than in the US and this survey seems to confirm that. Is there any obvious reason why there is less willingness in the US? Why wouldn't people swap to get the right phone?

Is it the geographical coverage of certain suppliers that just wins out in some areas? Or is there more to it?

[freeny]

Originally Posted by Sunbow

There does seem to be a greater willingness here in the UK to swap mobile supplier than in the US and this survey seems to confirm that. Is there any obvious reason why there is less willingness in the US? Why wouldn't people swap to get the right phone?

Is it the geographical coverage of certain suppliers that just wins out in some areas? Or is there more to it?

The carriers themeselves suck. people get very vendictive when a carrier screws them over. It happens allot. carriers get nasty reputations and people try to avoid them.

The fact is is that all the carriers suck and have screwd lots and lots of users. There will always be a portion of users that will refuse to go to a certain carrier because that was the last carrier to screw them over. So it really doesnt matter which carrier the phone went to because there will always be a group of people who dont like that company.

I am currently hating Sprint. I assume sometime next year I will be hating AT&T.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by EruIthildur

I disagree that the iPhone will cut into iPod sales that much... I still plan on getting a big honkin' iPod for my music and an iPhone for my phone when glitches are ironed out and they open it to developers a little bit... At least the widgets.

I wonder what the query basis of the survey was?

Don't forget that most iPods sold are either Nano's, or the much smaller Shuffles.

Most cannibalization will come from one of those camps, with the majority likely coming from the Nano buyers.

They will simply think of the iPhone as a Nano with a phone.

5G owners will look at the memory drop as a downgrade, and many will either not buy, or will buy both. Shuffle owners might find it to be too expensive, and more than they need.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

I don't think cannibalization is a valid concern anyway. A business has to obsolete their own products before someone else does.

That's an excellent point!

When my companies had to look at our products, we always had to find a way to not just improve them, but to make a newer product that was more compelling than the current one, and more compelling than the competition's as well—before they did.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by freeny

The carriers themeselves suck. people get very vendictive when a carrier screws them over. It happens allot. carriers get nasty reputations and people try to avoid them.

The fact is is that all the carriers suck and have screwd lots and lots of users. There will always be a portion of users that will refuse to go to a certain carrier because that was the last carrier to screw them over. So it really doesnt matter which carrier the phone went to because there will always be a group of people who dont like that company.

I am currently hating Sprint. I assume sometime next year I will be hating AT&T.

People don't hate their carriers as much as some think. The turnover rate is much less than for cable broadband, DSL, or most other subscription services.

The rates are, from what I remember, generally under 6%. As broadband also offers yearly, and multiyear contracts with fees for leaving, that's telling. Before, when you lost your current number, there could be an excuse, but no longer.

With all of the hatred of Cingular, and AT&T, on the boards, it must still be noted that it is the largest service, and gained over a million and a half new subscribers last reporting period. It now has over 61.5 million customers as of about a month ago.

I use Sprint, and I don't hate it, it's true, sometimes it's annoying.

[gregmightdothat]

Originally Posted by Sunbow

There does seem to be a greater willingness here in the UK to swap mobile supplier than in the US and this survey seems to confirm that. Is there any obvious reason why there is less willingness in the US? Why wouldn't people swap to get the right phone?

Is it the geographical coverage of certain suppliers that just wins out in some areas? Or is there more to it?

I don't know if it's the same in the UK, but in the US you generally have to pay around $100-200 (50-100 pounds) to break out of your contract and switch.

[JCG]

Originally Posted by Sunbow

There does seem to be a greater willingness here in the UK to swap mobile supplier than in the US and this survey seems to confirm that. Is there any obvious reason why there is less willingness in the US? Why wouldn't people swap to get the right phone?

Is it the geographical coverage of certain suppliers that just wins out in some areas? Or is there more to it?

The short answer is contracts. In the US the carriers almost always have a 1-2 year contract that you must sign with a heafty early termination fee to break the contract.

[McHuman]

Originally Posted by freeny

I am very confused as to why analysts feel there will be so much cannibalism...
How does 8gigs qualify as a "video iPod?"

Because the analysts know there will soon be 60gb flash iPhones that will cost $299. Look at the big picture.

[max_naylor]

Well duh! How much is this guy getting paid?

[Sunbow]

In the UK the contract periods have tended to be 12 months but have recently been extending out to 18. However, I think the tendency is not to feel any need to stick with the same supplier at the end of that period. With the early announcement of the iPhone, none of us will have a very long time to wait until our contract end dates by the time of the UK launch. I know I'll avoid the termination fee but will happily move after that.

I'm not aware of the same level of angst in the UK over mobile phone company antics as is seeming to be the case in the US.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by melgross

People don't hate their carriers as much as some think. The turnover rate is much less than for cable broadband, DSL, or most other subscription services.

The rates are, from what I remember, generally under 6%.

Mmm... no, Mel. The turnover rate for US wireless carriers is far higher than that. Monthly churn rates vary from around 1.2% (for the better carriers like Verizon or US Cellular) to over twice that, for companies that either suck (horrible customer service), or have spotty coverage (like say T-mobile not too long ago).

That translates to yearly turnover rates ranging from 15 to 30%. People bail on the their carriers all the time, and things aren't getting that much better.

With all of the hatred of Cingular, and AT&T, on the boards, it must still be noted that it is the largest service, and gained over a million and a half new subscribers last reporting period. It now has over 61.5 million customers as of about a month ago.

It's not hard to gain customers in a growing market. Cingular/ATT actually has over a million customers a month bail on them (their monthly churn rate averages around 1.8%, times that by 61 million and you'll get it), but, like most of the other carriers, they gain more than they lose because the market's still growing.

That will start to change in a couple of years though, as the US market finally nears cellphone saturation. The carriers have succeeded in pushing phones to everyone who could possibly need one, including bad credit risk customers (prepay) and kids (family plans), pretty soon only population growth will grow the base from here on out. And more carriers will either stagnate in customer count overall, or actually lose customers overall.

.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

I don't think cannibalization is a valid concern anyway. A business has to obsolete their own products before someone else does. A business that rests on its laurels is a danger to itself.

Great (and valid) point, but whenever I use it regarding Apple's Mac line-up, someone always whines.


.

[Oh Blah Dee Blah Dah]

If Goldman Sachs is so "confident" about Apple, why did it remove Apple from its "Recommended List" last month?

[DeaPeaJay]

Originally Posted by melgross

They will simply think of the iPhone as a Nano with a phone.

I don't think so. All the people who buy a nano do so because of the convenient size. There's no way they'd switch to a relatively clunky iPhone. (relative to the nano)

[TenoBell]

A business has to obsolete their own products before someone else does. A business that rests on its laurels is a danger to itself.

That's a great point Jeff.

Great (and valid) point, but whenever I use it regarding Apple's Mac line-up, someone always whines.

You also want to cannibalize your current product with something that will sell far better not something that is only marginal.

They will simply think of the iPhone as a Nano with a phone.

Yes Jobs did specify the cost of the iPhone. By thinking of the number of people who would buy an iPod and a smartphone. With the iPhone you are buying both in the same device.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Sunbow

In the UK the contract periods have tended to be 12 months but have recently been extending out to 18. However, I think the tendency is not to feel any need to stick with the same supplier at the end of that period. With the early announcement of the iPhone, none of us will have a very long time to wait until our contract end dates by the time of the UK launch. I know I'll avoid the termination fee but will happily move after that.

I'm not aware of the same level of angst in the UK over mobile phone company antics as is seeming to be the case in the US.

There isn't much angst here either.

It's mostly the people online, in forums like this one, who feel the angst.

It's like DRM. People online hate it, while the vast majority don't care in the least.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TBaggins

Mmm... no, Mel. The turnover rate for US wireless carriers is far higher than that. Monthly churn rates vary from around 1.2% (for the better carriers like Verizon or US Cellular) to over twice that, for companies that either suck (horrible customer service), or have spotty coverage (like say T-mobile not too long ago).

That translates to yearly turnover rates ranging from 15 to 30%. People bail on the their carriers all the time, and things aren't getting that much better.

I'd like to see those numbers, because I haven't seen anything like that.

One thing I have read is that churn rates in all industries are like divorce. The rates seem high, but most people don't divorce, or churn. What happens is that a certain number are doing it over and over again. Most people I know have never changed cell providers, but a couple have done so several times.

[quyote]
It's not hard to gain customers in a growing market. Cingular/ATT actually has over a million customers a month bail on them (their monthly churn rate averages around 1.8%, times that by 61 million and you'll get it), but, like most of the other carriers, they gain more than they lose because the market's still growing.[/quote]

Market growth has slowed down considerably. In the US, at least, more than a majority of people who will be getting cells have already done so.

That will start to change in a couple of years though, as the US market finally nears cellphone saturation. The carriers have succeeded in pushing phones to everyone who could possibly need one, including bad credit risk customers (prepay) and kids (family plans), pretty soon only population growth will grow the base from here on out. And more carriers will either stagnate in customer count overall, or actually lose customers overall.

This is already happening.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by freeny

How does 8gigs qualify as a "video iPod?"

Because it plays video? A quick number crunch shows that it can store maybe 12-16 hours of purchased video (depending on video type), which is probably what you can reasonably play on three or four charges anyway. Sansa sells a 2GB flash player that can play videos. Phones and PDAs with less than 1GB capacity often have video playback features.

The information that we do see publicly shows that the average owner of a video-capable player doesn't fill them up with videos or use them to watch videos as much as you'd think.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by DeaPeaJay

I don't think so. All the people who buy a nano do so because of the convenient size. There's no way they'd switch to a relatively clunky iPhone. (relative to the nano)

SOME of the people who buy a Nano do so because of the size.

The rest do so because of the price, amount of memory, and style (as opposed to size alone—color, coolness factor, etc).

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

You also want to cannibalize your current product with something that will sell far better not something that is only marginal.

Needed Mac products like a 15" MB, subnotebook, and minitower are only 'marginal' if you subscribe to the 'bad old' Apple thinking that their only market is the fixed base, i.e. we're selling Macs only to the same people, over and over again, so we best limit upgradability, severely limit the product line, and squeeze every last dime out of 'em.

Recent stats showing that half of all new Mac sales are to folks new to the platform (Windows switchers, folks new to computing) would seem to debunk that line of reasoning. And may be part of why Apple seems to be coming around... AppleInsider has run stories lately that a 15" MB and a subnotebook are in the works. So, looks like I'm 2 out of 3, and counting, though of course I won't count my new Macs 'til they're hatched. 8)

.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by melgross

I'd like to see those numbers, because I haven't seen anything like that.

No problemo:



Note where it says 'churn, percentage per month' near the bottom. Full article at
http://wireless.seekingalpha.com/article/25671

Basically, you made the same mistake that lots of people do... they think that churn rates are quarterly figures, not monthly.

The industry probably does them as monthly because, if they did them as quarterly, they'd all look like sheeite. And you've just experienced how well that works.

One thing I have read is that churn rates in all industries are like divorce. The rates seem high, but most people don't divorce, or churn. What happens is that a certain number are doing it over and over again. Most people I know have never changed cell providers, but a couple have done so several times.

Its likely that a small segment of the population is responsible for more than their share of the churn, but with most folks being on contracts these days, with hefty penalties for early termination, Joe and Jane Average seem to be churning at quite a high rate also.

Sometimes carriers break out their 'postpaid churn only' figures, and they aren't that much lower than their overall churn percentages- usually something like 20% lower than the overall figure. Bad credit prepay folks don't really exist in sufficient numbers to heavily skew the stats. Not to say that those are the only heavy churners, but they are the most often-cited sources of churn-skewing.

Market growth has slowed down considerably. In the US, at least, more than a majority of people who will be getting cells have already done so.

...This is already happening.

Yep, but the process hasn't fully run its course yet. If you look at US wireless carrier growth rates, they still exceed population growth by quite a lot. We have not hit market saturation yet, but we're getting there.

.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TBaggins

No problemo:



Note where it says 'churn, percentage per month' near the bottom. Full article at
http://wireless.seekingalpha.com/article/25671

Basically, you made the same mistake that lots of people do... they think that churn rates are quarterly figures, not monthly.

You have me on that. You're right, I thought the numbers were quarterly.

But, Cingular seems to be improving quickly.

I think all services are improving. Sprint used to have worse service than it does.

The industry probably does them as monthly because, if they did them as quarterly, they'd all look like sheeite. And you've just experienced how well that works.

That's possible, unless the FCC requires it.

Its likely that a small segment of the population is responsible for more than their share of the churn, but with most folks being on contracts these days, with hefty penalties for early termination, Joe and Jane Average seem to be churning at quite a high rate also. Sometimes carriers break out their 'postpaid churn only' figures, and they aren't that much lower than their overall churn percentages.

I don't know if this is required yet, or it's still voluntary, but some carriers, at least, offer pro rated early termination fees. So, as the contract go on, the fees get smaller. Some carriers can also be persuaded to pay those fees if you join them.

Yep, but the process hasn't fully run its course yet. If you look at industry growth rates, they exceed population growth by quite a lot. We have not hit market saturation yet, but we're getting there.

It will never totally complete. But, it's like Zeno's Paradox. Each time you take a step, you travel half the distance. no matter how close you get, you never quite get there.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by freeny

How does 8gigs qualify as a "video iPod?"

I'd happily buy something like that. My iPod doesn't have to hold my entire video collection, just maybe a half-dozen TV show episodes or the latest movie or two I'm interested in (plus 500- 1000 songs or so).

At half a gig per TV show eppy (and thats for hour-long shows), you don't really NEED a 30 gig vidPod, though some folks will of course insist on it. But they're not the whole market.

.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TBaggins

I'd happily buy something like that. My iPod doesn't have to hold my entire video collection, just maybe a half-dozen TV show episodes or the latest movie or two I'm interested in (plus 500- 1000 songs or so).

At half a gig per TV show eppy (and thats for hour-long shows), you don't really NEED a 30 gig vidPod, though some folks will of course insist on it. But they're not the whole market.

.

I'm happy someone here, besides Jeff, agrees with me on that.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by melgross

You have me on that. You're right, I thought the numbers were quarterly.

But, Cingular seems to be improving quickly.

I think all services are improving. Sprint used to have worse service than it does.

No problem Mel. Not trying to play a game of 'gotcha' either, just trying to impart some knowledge. I have a pretty good reservoir of it regarding wireless, as you may have noted.

Far as Cing/ATT goes, their improvements in churn are starting to stall out. They also have a continuing problem with their legacy TDMA customers, who are on AWESOMELY cheap & high-minute plans, don't want to switch to GSM, and are slowly having the rug pulled out from under them by Cing/ATT, prompting them to bail. Which ups churn for Cing/ATT.

But its not just that... Cing/ATT customer service pretty much licks nads, and is consistently rated as such (yes, JD Power has a 'licks nads' rating.... j/k). And their network, despite all the cute 'fewest dropped calls' ads, consistently finishes mid-pack to last in Consumer Reports and JD Power surveys. To put it nicely... as a carrier, they're just not 'all that', even by the low standards of the industry as a whole.

I don't know if this is required yet, or it's still voluntary, but some carriers, at least, offer pro rated early termination fees. So, as the contract go on, the fees get smaller. Some carriers can also be persuaded to pay those fees if you join them.

Pro-rated early termination fees are sort of a 'Holy Grail' in the US wireless industry... every consumer wants 'em, but the industry keeps saying 'no', because they're afraid of what it'd do to their (already horrendous) churn rates.

Its talked about, but it sure isn't required, or even widely offered.

It will never totally complete. But, it's like Zeno's Paradox. Each time you take a step, you travel half the distance. no matter how close you get, you never quite get there.

Cool. I love stuff like that... that and Occam's Razor. 8)


.

[Daddy B]

At the moment, the iPhone is said to be closed for 3rd party apps to be developed or even installed...

Imagine the potential of this thing if it were available for development...

http://www.freeTheIPhone.com

DB.

[TenoBell]

Needed Mac products like a 15" MB, subnotebook, and minitower are only 'marginal' if you subscribe to the 'bad old' Apple thinking that their only market is the fixed base, i.e. we're selling Macs only to the same people, over and over again, so we best limit upgradability, severely limit the product line, and squeeze every last dime out of 'em

Apple has done it both ways. Its had a sprawling product line up and a limited product line up.

To go along with what I said the 15" MacBook is very likely because notebook sales are high for every OEM across the industry. The mid tower is not very likely because desktop sales and profits are down for every OEM across the industry.

My iPod doesn't have to hold my entire video collection, just maybe a half-dozen TV show episodes or the latest movie or two I'm interested in (plus 500- 1000 songs or so).

I'm happy someone here, besides Jeff, agrees with me on that.

I never said people were storing their entire video collection on iPods. I said several times that 8GB isn't much for a device that stores software, contacts, SMS conversations, calendar appointments, documents, pictures, audio, as well as video. All of that together would easily fill 8GB.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Daddy B

At the moment, the iPhone is said to be closed for 3rd party apps to be developed or even installed...

Imagine the potential of this thing if it were available for development...

http://www.freeTheIPhone.com

DB.

That's not what Jobs said. He NEVER said that there would be no third party apps on the phone. He said that they would be approved by Apple, indicating that Apple would decide which ones make it.

I'm still not happy about the limitation, but third party software will be allowed.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

I never said people were storing their entire video collection on iPods. I said several times that 8GB isn't much for a device that stores software, contacts, SMS conversations, calendar appointments, documents, pictures, audio, as well as video. All of that together would easily fill 8GB.

I think that is understandable. I am also willing to allow a little leeway because it's a 1st generation product. For many reasons, I don't think I really even want the first generation product. I would expect the second generation (or otherwise just upgraded, Gen 1.5) to have 3G and double the memory, hopefully in early 08.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Apple has done it both ways. Its had a sprawling product line up and a limited product line up.

Under Jobs, its always tended to be the latter. Let's not count the 'Performa 6205 days', shall me? Brrrrr.

To go along with what I said the 15" MacBook is very likely because notebook sales are high for every OEM across the industry. The mid tower is not very likely because desktop sales and profits are down for every OEM across the industry.

15" MB is likely because to get larger than a 13" Mac notebook these days, you have to spend $2000, while on the PC side, 15" notebooks can now be had for $1000 less that. Even Apple knows when the Mac price premium is so high that they're going to get their lunch eaten.

Minitower is still up in the air, but I think there's a place for it... potential Windows switchers are used to buying them on the PC side and it'd be nice if Apple had something like that to help pull them off of the fence.

Its always easier to sell people what they want, as opposed to what you tell them they want. Notebooks are becoming more popular but desktops still account for 40 percent of Mac sales.

I never said people were storing their entire video collection on iPods. I said several times that 8GB isn't much for a device that stores software, contacts, SMS conversations, calendar appointments, documents, pictures, audio, as well as video. All of that together would easily fill 8GB.

8 GB ain't much, but it is doable for a vidPod, and yes, the iPhone as well. Not everyone is going to use either device to do all the things you mention. And some folks just do not want hard drives, for reasons of fragility, battery life, etc.

I agree with Jeff, obviously we're all going to be a lot happier in a few months/a year when 16GB flash-based vidPods and iPhones become viable.

.

[TenoBell]

I am also willing to allow a little leeway because it's a 1st generation product. For many reasons, I don't think I really even want the first generation product. I would expect the second generation (or otherwise just upgraded, Gen 1.5) to have 3G and double the memory, hopefully in early 08.

That's the problem too many people post that they will hold off until iPhone 2.0 Or people say iPhone 1 is nice but iPhone 2 should be great. Even in pro Apple publications such as MacWorld and MacLife, their initial reviews of the iPhone raise the question of 8GB being enough storage for a device with this amount of functionality. For Apple entering a new and highly competitive market this isn't good.

Admittedly I may be over estimating the ability of the largest hand-set makers to match the iPhone when it launches. But if I were Apple I would give them as little chance to match the iPhone 1 as possible.

Not everyone is going to use either device to do all the things you mention.

What would be the purpose of including all of that functionality to then say everyone won't use it because you know there isn't really enough storage to make it all easy to use. What about the people who will use it all.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

That's the problem too many people post that they will hold off until iPhone 2.0 Or people say iPhone 1 is nice but iPhone 2 should be great. Even in pro Apple publications such as MacWorld and MacLife, their initial reviews of the iPhone raise the question of 8GB being enough storage for a device with this amount of functionality. For Apple entering a new and highly competitive market this isn't good.

The problem isn't so much the capacity... 4 out of 5 people complaining tend to complain about the 'no 3G' factor. Let's face it, EDGE is rather slow. But Apple was forced into that for iPhone 1.0 once they settled for Cingular/ATT as their carrier, because Cing/ATT does not have a lot of 3G coverage yet, but they do have tons of 2.5G (EDGE) coverage.

What would be the purpose of including all of that functionality to then say everyone won't use it because you know there isn't really enough storage to make it all easy to use.

If you're not happy with 8 gigs, you'll have to wait for iPhone 2.0. Join the boat, I'm not happy with the 2.5G, so I'm right there with ya, even if its for different reasons.


.

[TenoBell]

The problem isn't so much the capacity... 4 out of 5 people complaining tend to complain about the 'no 3G' factor. Let's face it, EDGE is rather slow

There are a couple of ways to look at the wireless signals each have their pluses and minuses.

- 802.11g is faster and would be more preferable than EDGE or 3G. But it certainly is not ubiquitous or consistent.

- 3G in the iPhone wouldn't make much difference if you can't get a signal, slow as EDGE may be its better than nothing. By the time Cingular has its 3G act together Verizon and Sprint will be moving on to 4G.

- Most likely the far majority of the people buying an iPhone will live in major cities with ample 3G coverage. Why punish them with EDGE because of the few people who do not live in areas adequately covered by 3G.

If you're not happy with 8 gigs, you'll have to wait for iPhone 2.0. Join the boat, I'm not happy with the 2.5G, so I'm right there with ya, even if its for different reasons.

Its not so much about what I want personally. I'm more questioning the wisdom of how Apple is positioning the iPhone in light of its market and level of competition.

[ebrunn]

waits for the awesome "Cingular iPhone Plan" to be announced along with discounts

You know its coming. I dont really care about the EDGE. Im around wifi most of my day so I dont need it.

I was going to buy the iPhone even before it was announced. Somebody has to buy it first. I did it with the iPod and Im doing it with the iPhone.

[ebrunn]

Originally Posted by Daddy B

At the moment, the iPhone is said to be closed for 3rd party apps to be developed or even installed...

Imagine the potential of this thing if it were available for development...

http://www.freeTheIPhone.com

DB.

yeah, alot of restarting the phone becuase of apps freezing the phone.