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#1 |
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Kasper's Automated Slave
Join Date: Nov 1997
Posts: 6,151
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BofA echos reports of flash-based Apple sub-notebook in 2H07
Bank of America Securities this week joined a chorus of other Wall Street firms who say they believe Apple Inc. is working on flash-based notebook and video iPod designs for a release sometime later this year.
The financial reports arrive on the heels two recent AppleInsider pieces which similarly detailed the Cupertino-based company's plans to move into the flash-enabled sub-notebook and flash-based video iPod markets later this year. "We believe that Apple will introduce a new notebook, with flash based storage in [the second half of 2007]," analyst Keith Bachman wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "Turn on time will be shorter (with flash), and we imagine the form factor will be thinner, than existing notebooks." Bachman, who maintains a buy rating shares of the Mac maker, said he does not believe the capacity point for the new Apple notebook has been determined but expects it will end up around around 30GB. "We don’t yet know if Apple’s potential move into flash based notebooks is an anomaly or a trend, and we need to get a better handle on other vendors’ intentions to assess the impact to [hard disk drive makers] Western Digital Corp. and Seagate Technology," he told clients. "Our initial take on the recent developments is that the impact to the drive market from the encroachment of flash should be very small in 2007, outside of lower potential unit growth in the small form factor drives, such as 1.8 inch." Similarly, and speaking more broadly, the Bank of America analyst said he is not yet convinced that the notebook market will significantly shift to 30GB flash capacity in the near term, as the target ultra portable notebook market consists of only about 2 percent of total drive units (or about 6 percent - 7 percent of total notebooks). Another major deterrent is Microsoft's Vista operating system, he said, which would require about half the 30GB of drive space for installation compared to the 2GB – 4GB required by Apple's Mac OS X. "We believe that flash based Vista notebooks would be best suited for business travels that use the network as primary storage, meaning we think the impact to the drive market from the encroachment of flash should be relatively small, though admittedly more of a force than we previously figured," he wrote. In his note to clients, Bachman also echoed reports of forthcoming flash-based video iPods, which he said will arrive later this year as a complement to the current line of hard disk drive-based models. Overall, the analyst remains bullish on Apple shares, which have significantly outperformed the Nasdaq stock market over the last three months, rising some 4.2 percent compared to the Nasdaq's 2.7 percent decline. |
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#2 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,218
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So a 30GB iPhone can't be too far behind? Just when I was thinking I should put in my order in June (or whenever), I am tempted to wait until Christmas....
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#3 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 244
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why wait?
i'm getting the 8GB iPhone as soon as i possible can - within hours of announcement of availability.
if you want to wait for the 30 gig - possibly around christmas, why not wait for the HSPDA, 128 gig w/ built in GPS coming @ january '09? heck, why not wait for the full HD screen version w/ HD video recording capabilities coming in june 2010? or the 2012 model w/ 32 megapixel 10x optical zoom camera? no matter what you get it will be outdated VERY quickly. i'll buy in june, then again as soon as 2 things happen: a] my 2 year contract is up, then b] immediately after the next revision is out
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16gb iPhone // 17" MBP core2duo, stock // 17" lampshade iMac G4 1Ghz -- |
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#4 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,218
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Quote:
I can live with it going to 128GB; that is less of a qualitative leap, at least for me, than going from 8 to 30GB. I've wondered why Apple doesn't make the design a bit modular on products that are not that terribly inexpensive -- if such a significant capacity upgrade is likely to happen in the matter of a few months to a year after a release, they should be able to charge me a little extra (say $100), take out the 8GB, and put in the 30GB. |
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#5 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 646
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These claims are proof that Analysts have no idea what they are talking about.
I will only say this once: FLASH MEMORY IS NOT YET SUITABLE TO RUN A FULL-FLEDGED OS!!! Anyone informed about Flash memory also knows of its limited number of read/write cycles. Anyone informed about OSes know that there are tons and tons of R/Ws take place, especially on UNIX-based OSes. Anyone able to put 1 and 1 together also knows that running OS X on Flash will DESTROY it in a matter of a couple years. Two things need to happen first: 1) The ZFS file-system must be used. 2) Flash capacity needs to increase. #1 will append changes to a disk, not overwrite them, thus saving r/w cycles #2 will be necessary as a condition of #1. HD space will fill quicker, making 30GB feel much smaller. When both of these things happen, then we'll start seeing flash-only devices, but not before. I repeat: NOT BEFORE. -Clive |
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#6 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 151
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Interesting. I'm sure one day that the idea of storing our data magnetically on rotating platters will make our grandchildren laugh.
...but that day has not yet come |
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#7 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The kool-aid stand...
Posts: 2,187
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In the other thread that AI posted today this was said.
Quote:
I think 5 million hours will do. ![]()
Hardcore.
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#8 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 4
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This + Multi-touch support + Leopard multi-touch support = teh win
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#9 |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 805
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Current flash-memory has wear-leveling, which spreads writes out among the transistors. That adds dramatically to flash life. Additionally, the number of writes the flash can handle is way the heck up there, like a few million writes or so. That will give you the 4-5 years that a hard drive is gonna be rated for. More to the point, it's probably about as likely to fail under warranty as a 2.5" or 1.8" HDD.
Also, the Vista comment is flat-out false. 10-15 GB for Vista is largely swapfile and stuff. My OS X install uses about 5.5 GB of Virtual Memory on my HDD (with just email, browsing, and TextEdit open), and if you factor in iMovie, GarageBand, and stuff like that, you get near that 10-15 GB number overall. To fit easily in a 5 GB pre-install, Apple needs to slim down as much as Vista does. |
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#10 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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Quote:
If it gets oudated very quickly, then one might as well wait until the specs are up to desirable levels. Then, it will at least be sufficient for two or so years, even if it has been superseded. I still haven't replaced my 1gig nano or my 4G ipod, they served the desired tasks, and they still do. |
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#11 |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 805
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#12 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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Hard drives probably never reach that. They are replaced long before that. The system for measuring MTBF don't account for failure due to old age, where failure rates keep increasing after a certain age. Two papers that were released in the recent months showed that there really wasn't much of an infant mortality phenomenon, most drives in the test fail from old age. How they measure their drives is to operate a certain number of drives for a certain number of hours. From what I understand, if 1000 drives operate for 1000 hours each and only one drive dies, it has an MTBF of 1,000,000. That's what makes it somewhat disingenuous, because as I noted, old age doesn't become a factor in such a test.
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#13 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Georgia
Posts: 283
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Quote:
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#14 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA - TN
Posts: 889
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Quote:
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#15 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Paradise
Posts: 399
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I still don't get what incentive a manufacturer would have to go all-flash storage. It would seem more profitable to provide two drive bays in a 1.8" form factor and load one with a HDD and one with a flash drive, and either use ZFS to control the two, or get the OS or controller to manage them.
I don't need 160GB of drive space on my laptop, but I am currently using 140GB of it for various information. Relying on the network can really be a pain... mirroring it makes life much easier on the road. I hope solutions move us towards a more flexible architecture that can meet either mode of operation. |
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#16 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Olympia, WA
Posts: 169
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Quote:
What 15GB?!? That absurd! Another major deterrent is Microsoft's Vista operating system, he said, which would require about half the 30GB of drive space for installation compared to the 2GB – 4GB required by Apple's Mac OS X. |
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#17 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Northwest
Posts: 2,695
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Support. It's not the base filesystem for OS X.
But with that in mind, the HDD Industry isn't sitting on their collective asses and waiting to lose their business. They are working on solutions to provide solid state disk drives that have the benefits of their current drives with the benefits of solid state circuitry, without the detriments that are reality in flash based solid state drives. Intel will not surpass the Seagates and WD of the world. |
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#18 |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Non-Cupertino-based
Posts: 4,831
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No. I want to use my computer far longer than 570 years.
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AppleInsider's "journalists" are anything but.
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#19 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA - TN
Posts: 889
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#20 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Denmark
Posts: 131
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Mac OS X Boot is not possible on zfs formatted disks. Yet.
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#21 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Huntington, WV
Posts: 69
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flash-based laptop idea
the obvious problem with a flash-based subnotebook is the storage limitations. the other problem with the subnotebook itself is the inherent bulk associated with the optical drive. so... why not have a subnotebook with flash-based hard drive and an optional attachable hard drive/optical drive? b/c i could probably live without the extra hard drive and optical drive as i work mostly from a desktop, but i could see where people would want such options. essentially make the additional drives connect underneath the notebook. just a thought.
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#22 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 3,929
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I want to reiterate that I will not buy and will bitch constantly unless this notebook comes with crossfire sli GPU.
Nothing else will be adequate. ![]() |
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#23 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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#24 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 28
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#25 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Northwest
Posts: 2,695
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Quote:
You'd have to have 128 Gigs if not more of RAM to keep Graphic Artists, Render Farms, High end CAD, Film Production, High End Engineering Simulations, etc., satisfied. Reality is simple: These solid state drives make sense for small form factor, low footprint embedded devices as well as handheld devices like iPods and iPhone. It doesn't make sense for general computing. Until we start dealing with RAM in 3 dimensions cost effectively, organic computing, etc., the HDD isn't going anywhere other than to have its Mechatronics scale down to a point that makes it cost effective to use Solid state over platter based drives. |
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#26 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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#27 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 25
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#28 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: USA - TN
Posts: 889
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#29 |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Trenton Florida
Posts: 162
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FLASH!!! Doo Doo Doo Doo Dooooo ohhhhhhhh ohhhhhhhhhhhh....
Savior of the universe!!! "waaaher neeer Waaaaaher neeeeeeeaaar narh nah" FLASH!!! Doo Doo Doo Doo Doooo.... Could not resist ![]() |
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#30 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 165
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Quote:
Why am I reading yours this time? Well, I decided to read the whole thread, boring and interesting. You can always try to type things out all of the way with proper caps, it never hurts... I find a limited use of capitilization much more tasteful than almost no caps and a bunch of abbrieviations. Gripes aside. I will be interested in the flash technology when it will be able to do what most users need it to do on computers... Until then, keep it in small devices like the iPhone... But keep jacking up the memory... 8 GB isn't that big. |
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#31 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
![]() "Vat do you mean, 'Flash Gordon approachink?' " .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#32 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 1,196
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http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=6504
after reading this any one will believe what BofA to say about Apple ![]()
13.3" Core Duo MB Black | 500 GB WD Scorpio Blue | 2GB RAM | 10.5.6 | Viewsonic VX2255wmb 22" LCD
16GB iPhone 3G |
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#33 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 244
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size does matter
8 gigs isn't really that much, but i'm not putting my entire music library [42 gigs] on the thing. i'll put a few hundred songs, a few movies and a few tv shows on the thing. just autofill when i get bored of what's on there.
i just WISH it was a standard usb plug to charge/sync. that should be LAW... but for a subNotebook, i don't see a need for hard drive or optical drive. 16 gb would be enough, but 32 would be better, and give it 802.11n, make it a 10" multiTouch tablet with a slide out keyboard. maybe .5" thick? nice! Wow wow wee waa. my major question is WHAT is the target audience? i'm not going to buy a subnotebook to sit on the couch and surf the web/email with. i've got a laptop for that.
--
16gb iPhone // 17" MBP core2duo, stock // 17" lampshade iMac G4 1Ghz -- |
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#34 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Michigan
Posts: 3
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Yes and no with the analysts
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#35 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
MTBF and how many R/W cycles the drive can handle are not exactly the same thing, depending how tricky they wish to get with the language (though I'd like to assume that they MEAN 5 million hours of normal R/Ws can be accomodated). .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#36 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Planet Earth
Posts: 2,158
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This is exactly wrong. Surfing the web and using email would be core applications of a subnotebook. One of the target audiences for such a computer would be travelers. The computer has to support PowerPoint--and thus the complete Microsoft Office suite. Travelers--whether for lunch at a coffee shop or for conferences across the country or overseas--access wireless (and wired) networks for email and to communicate with their offices and others. Fly on any airplane and look around. Almost everyone is watching DVDs on his/her laptop. If the computer doesn't have an optical drive, then it must be really easy to copy DVDs to its flash drive and with enough space to accomodate the contents of two or three DVDs--and soon, two or three Blu-ray discs. Neither Apple nor any other manufacturer would be so stupid as to produce a subnotebook which forced its buyers to use a second larger notebook while on travel. It will take some ingenuity to provide travelers with the functionality that they need in an economically viable package.
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#37 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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#38 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 22
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I quite agree with Mr. Me. I need a small sub-compact for travel in particular. I am often on ships or in hotel rooms and I need web and email of course but also ichat, video conferencing (when bandwidth is available), and applications for word processing, spreadsheets and blogging.
I will jump at buying a sub-compact, especially with solid state storage. I would prefer it in the MacBook for price reasons, but will take it wherever it is. |
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#39 | |||
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 5,043
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Somehow I'm thinking we might see that in Leopard. #2 is both done and will never be done. 32GB is a usable size. HDDs will be bigger and cheaper for a long time to come. And flash only devices exist already in the embedded world running full fledged OS's doing things computers do...like run databases. There was a discussion on how long it would take MySQL to destroy aa 64MB flash chip...I don't recall the answer but it was long enough that the folks decided it was good enough for their product. When 32GBs gets below $300 (and available on the street) I'll likely buy some for the tablets I have. I think they only have 40GB as it is and given the wear and tear I don't expect those drives to last all that long anyway. Vinea |
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