Apple's Mac share inches upwards during first quarter

[AppleInsider]

Data just released by market research firm IDC indicates that Apple's share of the worldwide personal computer market rose slightly during the first calendar quarter of the year, despite the simultaneous launch of Microsoft's first major operating system upgrade in over five years.

For the three-month period ending March, the Mac maker registered a 2.6 percent global share, up from 2.5 percent during the December quarter and from 2.1 percent during the year-ago quarter.

"Due to Vista's January 30 release and the PC sales that resulted from pent-up demand after its lengthy delay, we expected a slight sequential downtick in Mac market share," said Gene Munster, an analyst with investment bank PiperJaffray & Co."But strong Mac sales in Apple's March quarter enabled the company to gain share despite stronger than normal PC sales."

The analyst expects year-over-year market share gains to continue for the Cupertino-based company on a quarterly basis, especially as it enters three quarters of significant product releases (iPhone, Leopard, new iPods) and the educational buying season (July).

In a note to clients on Monday morning, Munster offered three specific examples of why he expects Mac share will continue to rise in June and throughout the remainder of Apple's 2007 fiscal year.

First and foremost, he said, the company's dominance in the portable sector will only help to amplify Mac appeal as the industry continues its trends away from clunky desktop systems and towards notebooks. He also noted that iPod and iTunes users on the Windows side are increasingly switching to Macs because they offer superior media management.

"And with iPhone and Apple TV, Apple has carried its lead in music into two new product categories," Munster told clients. "These products will further expand its footprint in a market with growing demand for simple solutions for digital content management. So far Dell and HP have failed to deliver PCs that rival the Mac's superior media experience."



Another variable weighing in the favor of continued share gains, the PiperJaffray analyst said, is the Mac's growing cool factor as a brand, which is similarly gaining traction thanks to successful series of international television ads, the continued popularity of the iPod despite cheaper prices, and Apple's profitable and effective retail strategy.

"Since coming out of the Intel transition Mac market share has seen year-over-year increases, and year-over-year unit sales growth of about 30 percent, which have been about 3x the industry average of about 10 percent," said Munster.

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[petermac]

and I will be expecting even more in the 12 months after Mac OSX 10.5 launch.
Pete

[ksec]

With XServe aiming for usage in SME or part of Large Cooperation. As well as Education sector. May be leopard should help Mac jump pass the 5% market share mark?

[petermac]

If the iPhone halo effect is as successful as the iPod, I suspect Apple will be pushing 10% within a few years (3-4). As OS virtualization kicks in a and the average consumer understands it, the take up rate will only improve.
Pete

[samurai1999]

Originally Posted by petermac

If the iPhone halo effect is as successful as the iPod, I suspect Apple will be pushing 10% within a few years (3-4). As OS virtualization kicks in a and the average consumer understands it, the take up rate will only improve.
Pete

They also need a wider & more comprehensive range of Macs for the customer to choose from
- both the Laptop & Desktop ranges are very limited compared to other major manufacturers
- and I think this is limiting Apple's Mac sales growth at the moment.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Data just released by market research firm IDC indicates that Apple's share of the worldwide personal computer market rose slightly during the first calendar quarter of the year, despite the simultaneous launch of Microsoft's first major operating system upgrade in over five years.

If only more companies were like Apple's 'FileMaker'. That is, the software comes packaged for both Mac OS and Windows on the same CD. Great for developers. It's cross platform and you can load it on either your Mac or a PC or both at the same time (and at no extra cost).

Imagine the consequences if one could exchange, or even at the upgrade price get copies of Adobe CS3, Office, Quark, etc., for the Mac OS, if you had a licenced copies for your PC. Only till then will Apple get their deserved share.

For the likes of Adobe, Microsoft, Quark, etc., not only would their sales increase signicantly, but they could also restructure the illegal landscape significantly.

[solipsism]

1) F@#k marketshare! Apple went from 800,000 units to 1,600,000 units a quarter in 3 years. I expect to see 2M units for Q1 2008. That is what really matters. Not Apple computers being compared to every low-end, craptastic computer being sold throughout the world.

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

And with iPhone and Apple TV, Apple has carried its lead in music into two new product categories," Munster told clients. "These products will further expand its footprint in a market with growing demand for simple solutions for digital content management. So far Dell and HP have failed to deliver PCs that rival the Mac's superior media experience.

2) Of course not, they run Windows. As long as Windows is running on legacy code it will never be able to keep up to OS X. My suggestion to MS is to adopt Unix as a foundation. This is one aspect in which they should copy Apple.

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Another variable weighing in the favor of continued share gains, the PiperJaffray analyst said, is the Mac's growing cool factor as a brand, which is similarly gaining traction thanks to successful series of international television ads, the continued popularity of the iPod despite cheaper prices, and Apple's profitable and effective retail strategy.

3) I don't think people are paying $1000+ for something because it's cool. The "cool factor" may spark interest, but I think people are finally seeing the benefit of having using a modern OS.

[Restalot]

What I'd really like to see just once is market data on consumer purchases only excluding corporate purchases. Corporations supply millions of computers for business use that the end user didn't choose to use (and may not work on proprietary software and applications). It would be intresting to see how many home users are buying Mac now versus last year and the share gains in the home.

[purpleshorts]

Only 2.6% global market share? That's ALL? As an avid member of this lunatic fringe, I believe we should all bow our heads and observe a moment of silence for the 97.4% of the computer users out there. Poor devils.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by purpleshorts

Only 2.6% global market share? That's ALL? As an avid member of this lunatic fringe, I believe we should all bow our heads and observe a moment of silence for the 97.4% of the computer users out there. Poor devils.

That isn't users, it's computers. A good portion of these are slow running machines that have a stripped down version of Windows or *nx, and have limited functionality by design.

It's common to compare, especially among Windows users, to compare Mac/OS X's marketshare to Windows. But this is pretty pointless. As Apple customers (and stockholders) we should only look at OEM marketshare. Apple is 4th or 5th largest OEM behind HP, Dell, and Toshiba (and ???). That is the only aspect of the marketshare that remotely matters to me.

But I digress, the only factor that realy matters is that Mac sales are increasing each year.

[AISI]

Originally Posted by solipsism

1) F@#k marketshare! Apple went from 800,000 units to 1,600,000 units a quarter in 3 years. I expect to see 2M units for Q1 2008.

The first quarter is always down from the fourth quarter of the previous year, Apple can reach 2 million units before Q1 2008. The year-over-year growth can cool down to 25 percent, that would be enough to achieve 2 million units/quarter by year's end, to reach more than 7 million Macs in CY 2007 and to continue to outgrow the overall PC market. The last two quarters of the year could be huge for Apple.

Cal. Q1 06: 1.112 (3.93% YOY)
Cal. Q2 06: 1.327 (12.27% YOY)
Cal. Q3 06: 1.610 (30.26% YOY)
Cal. Q4 06: 1.606 (28.07% YOY)
Cal. Q1 07: 1.517 (36.42% YOY)
Cal. Q2 07: 1.659 (25% YOY)
Cal. Q3 07: 2.013 (25% YOY)
Cal. Q4 07: 2.008 (25% YOY)

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by AISI

The first quarter is always down from the fourth quarter of the previous year, Apple can reach 2 million units before Q1 2008. The year-over-year growth can cool down to 25 percent, that would be enough to achieve 2 million units/quarter by year's end, to reach more than 7 million Macs in CY 2007 and to continue to outgrow the overall PC market. The last two quarters of the year could be huge for Apple.

Cal. Q1 06: 1.112 (3.93% YOY)
Cal. Q2 06: 1.327 (12.27% YOY)
Cal. Q3 06: 1.610 (30.26% YOY)
Cal. Q4 06: 1.606 (28.07% YOY)
Cal. Q1 07: 1.517 (36.42% YOY)
Cal. Q2 07: 1.659 (25% YOY)
Cal. Q3 07: 2.013 (25% YOY)
Cal. Q4 07: 2.008 (25% YOY)

We are talking about the same quarter. Like many companies, Apple's fiscal year starts 3 months into the previous year, so Q1 2008 starts October 1st 2007.

[AISI]

Should have thought about that, sorry. This is a common cause of misunderstanding and to complicate matters even more, every company's fiscal year is different. Thanks God for the calendar year.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by AISI

Thanks God for the calendar year.

Ummmmmmmmm... Which one?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_calendars

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Ummmmmmmmm... Which one?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_calendars

Quick, Artoo... what does SuperShadow have to say about it?

[addabox]

This has probably been addressed in one of these market share threads, but:

I think I've read that Mac users tend to hang onto their computers much longer than PC users. It's understandable, if you're running a $300 machine, that if it starts to melt down from software troubles you just get a new one.

So I have to wonder how many of the PCs being sold are simply replacements for existing machines that are getting tossed. Obviously that is going to be at least somewhat the case for Macs as well, but my suspicion is that a greater percentage of Macs sold are sold as new machines, either to switchers or as an additional machine in a household.

Which would make "installed user base" a very interesting number, if there were any way to calculate it. My thought here is that PC sales can be thought of as adding water to a leaky bucket where as Mac sales just keep filling up, cumulatively. So at the end of the day the PC advocates can declare "Look at all the water we're using!" and have it count to the good.

[Abster2core]

Interesting data. As they say, Liars figure and figures lie.

http://pollux.arstechnica.com/journa.../2007/3/2/7296

http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Interesting data. As they say, Liars figure and figures lie.
http://pollux.arstechnica.com/journa.../2007/3/2/7296
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2

Judging my the list of old OSes, they aren't measuring market share, they're measuring installed base.

Windows XP 83.57%
Windows 2000 4.71%
Mac OS 3.94%
MacIntel 2.14%
Windows Vista 2.04%
Windows 98 1.36%
Windows NT 0.80%
Windows ME 0.70%
Linux 0.57%
Windows CE 0.03%
Windows 95 0.03%
PSP 0.02%
Hiptop 0.02%
Web TV 0.02%
Series60 0.01%

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Judging my the list of old OSes, they aren't measuring market share, they're measuring installed base.

Could you elaborate please?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Could you elaborate please?

I'm under the impression that market share refers to sales during a given timeframe, whereas installed base refers to usage at a given time.

There currently aren't new copies of WIn95/98/ME being sold that aren't part of a resale of an old computer, and then legacy OSes certainly aren't being accounted for by MS.

I figure these numbers reflect visitor's OS stats to a website or group of websites, not the sales of the OSesl hence installed base. Granted, I could be completely off here.

[nvidia2008]

Originally Posted by ksec

With XServe aiming for usage in SME or part of Large Cooperation. As well as Education sector. May be leopard should help Mac jump pass the 5% market share mark?

There is a lag time here of about 2 years, but there is definitely potential. Intel Macs, Leopard, the crappiness of Vista, and Adobe CS3 (still awaiting PremierePro and AfterEffects8 in mid2007) + FinalCutStudio2 will push Apple to the next step into corporate, edu, and creative pro/prosumer markets. Tim Cook/ Oppenheimer was smartest about their coment regarding upgrade cycles and review of creative industry expenditure budgeting, etc, etc.

Originally Posted by solipsism

1) F@#k marketshare! Apple went from 800,000 units to 1,600,000 units a quarter in 3 years. I expect to see 2M units for Q1 2008. That is what really matters. Not Apple computers being compared to every low-end, craptastic computer being sold throughout the world.

YES.

2) Of course not, they run Windows. As long as Windows is running on legacy code it will never be able to keep up to OS X. My suggestion to MS is to adopt Unix as a foundation. This is one aspect in which they should copy Apple.

Agreed. Anyone with half a brain at Microsoft should realise that they should target a whole new OS based on Unix for 2012 release (5 years away, hell, that's how long it took at least for Vista) and backward-compatible-ise it to ONLY Windows Vista apps. Not even Windows XP.

Originally Posted by Restalot

What I'd really like to see just once is market data on consumer purchases only excluding corporate purchases. Corporations supply millions of computers for business use that the end user didn't choose to use (and may not work on proprietary software and applications). It would be intresting to see how many home users are buying Mac now versus last year and the share gains in the home.

As home use increases, worker frustration with the craptitude of their Windows working environment will lead to increasing demand for Macs at work, IMHO.

Originally Posted by solipsism

Judging my the list of old OSes, they aren't measuring market share, they're measuring installed base.

Windows XP 83.57%
Windows 2000 4.71%
Mac OS 3.94%
MacIntel 2.14%
Windows Vista 2.04%
Windows 98 1.36%
Windows NT 0.80%
Windows ME 0.70%
Linux 0.57%
Windows CE 0.03%
Windows 95 0.03%
PSP 0.02%
Hiptop 0.02%
Web TV 0.02%
Series60 0.01%

Possibly. I don't have enough energy reserves to go into this more in-depth at this time. Gotta do some work stuff today... Heh.

[SpamSandwich]

Personally, I'll probably end up waiting one more year unless they introduce a new iMac soon...

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I'm under the impression that market share refers to sales during a given timeframe, whereas installed base refers to usage at a given time.

There currently aren't new copies of WIn95/98/ME being sold that aren't part of a resale of an old computer, and then legacy OSes certainly aren't being accounted for by MS.

I figure these numbers reflect visitor's OS stats to a website or group of websites, not the sales of the OSesl hence installed base. Granted, I could be completely off here.

Good enough.

Market share is simply a breakdown of the percentage of sales in dollars or units of a product or a number of products in a given market. Time is not a part of the formula or the calculation used to determine it, but it is referenced.

Researchers will use a number of criteria to determine market share. The obvious would be to determine how many units of each product in a given category where bought in the same region, in the same time frame. Cost of such an endeavor would be dependent on how you conducted the survey. Mail vs fax vs email. Invidual users vs distributors. Etc.

In the referenced article, the analysist simply based market share by calculating the number of different types of computers used to access a given web sites. This, as the researcher pointed out takes the premise that most pcs are used to access the internet; something that is not or may not be entirely correct and is therefore is subject to question.

What is most important here was the sudden and significant jump in share since Apple's switch to Intel. Because the methology was identical in both cases, the trend as determined by the difference in share is therefore less if not subject to question.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

<a bunch of stuff>

Nice post, Abster2Core, good explanation.

[AISI]

Originally Posted by addabox

So I have to wonder how many of the PCs being sold are simply replacements for existing machines that are getting tossed.

In May 2004 Gartner analysts expected "almost 100 million PCs to be replaced in 2004 and nearly 120 million more to be replaced in 2005." According to Gartner, worldwide PC shipments increased to 188.9 million in 2004 and 218.5 million in 2005. I don't know if Gartner's prediction about the replacement cycle was right but it looks like about 50-55 percent of all PC sold is a replacement.

Originally Posted by addabox

Obviously that is going to be at least somewhat the case for Macs as well, but my suspicion is that a greater percentage of Macs sold are sold as new machines, either to switchers or as an additional machine in a household.

During the latest conference call Peter Oppenheimer stated that "The stores sold 275,000 Macs during the quarter, representing 79% year-over-year growth. As we've been reporting for some time now, over 50% of the customers buying Macs in our stores were new to the Mac." 40-50 percent were loyal, repeat customers and when an existing Apple customer buys a Mac, it's a replacement purchase too, you don't buy a new +$1,000 computer for no reason.

Originally Posted by addabox

My thought here is that PC sales can be thought of as adding water to a leaky bucket where as Mac sales just keep filling up, cumulatively.

The Mac bucket is somewhat less leaky but not by an order of magnitude. And what's wrong with replacement purchases anyway?

Credit Suisse analyst R.Semple: "Based on our estimate for the current iPod lifecycle to be 1.5 years, down from over two years, we believe the company will still be able to deliver attractive growth despite a decline in the number of new iPod users each year. The key takeaway is that if any company can accelerate its product replacement cycle, it becomes less dependent on new user penetration for growth."

Replacement or not, those iPods are boosting Apple's revenue and profits and no one is complaining about this.