AmTech: iPhone to become fastest selling Apple product in history

[AppleInsider]

While acknowledging that Apple Inc.'s iPhone is not without its assortment of initial flaws, analysts for American Technology Research say the multi-function handset is likely to become the fastest selling product in Apple's history, trumping even the iconic iPod nano.

"Our sources indicate that iPhone will likely become the fastest selling product in Apple's history and not to mention likely among the fastest (if not the fastest) in consumer electronics," analyst Shaw Wu informed clients in a research report published Monday. "We estimate sales of about 250,000 units in two days (up from our previous view of 50,000). The previous fastest seller was iPod nano, which sold about 1 million units in about 17 days meaning, about 59,000 units per day."

From a "big picture" standpoint, Wu said iPhone represents the start of a potential revolution in both PC and mobile electronics industries, given his view that the device is not just a classic old school product in that "it is landscape changing, being the first true convergence device that combines the best media player (widescreen video iPod), a near full-function web browser (Safari), e-mail/contacts/calendar, and a cellular phone."

Over the next 2-3 years, the analyst believes Apple has the potential to become a top selling "smart" phone vendor, which could leverage the mobile category into the mainstream just as the company did with the iPod and portable media players.

During Wu's tests, he was most impressed with the user interface (UI), Safari web browser (particularly on Wi-Fi), and widescreen video Pod. He advised clients that the handset "offers by far the best internet experience on a smart phone (where we find [it] most unusable) and the closest thing to surfing on a PC."

"For the UI, we find the 'pinch in' and 'pinch out' to zoom in and out particularly innovative and we also like the simplicity of a single 'home' button to press in case one gets lost," he wrote. "And finally, we agree with Apple that it is the best iPod ever, but we believe the relatively small 4 GB and 8 GB storage capacities and shorter mixed usage battery life will limit cannibalization of stand-alone iPods."

While the AmTech analyst remains upbeat on iPhone and its prospects, he admits the product isn't without flaws. In particular, he found the virtual keyboard somewhat difficult to use and likely to require some practice. Additionally, he said, the battery life could be better.

"In our extreme testing conditions (in which we were literally using the product non-stop given our excitement), we get battery life closer to 3 1/2 hours," Wu wrote. "We noticed web surfing uses up the most battery life. When we get to more normal use patterns, we envision charging the iPhone every 1-2 days, similar to other smart phones."

The analyst also found iPhone's $499 and $599 price points to be "somewhat steep" and suggests that Apple round out the handset line similar to what has been done with iPod and Macs -- with high-end, mid-range, and low-end offerings.

Wu was unsurprised with the mixed reactions thus far surrounding the iPhone's virtual keyboard. "As we have mentioned in previous notes, there is a learning curve," he explained. "We find the multi-touch interface radical and revolutionary, which reminds us of the original Apple mouse in 1984. Back then, the feedback was that it was a toy and why would anyone want to use a mouse and icons when text and a keyboard were better."

"We all know what happened to mice and icons since then," Wu added.

Given his analysis of current and future iPhone sales, the analyst on Monday raised his unit, average-selling-price, and margin assumptions regarding the device due to a favorable sales mix towards 8GB models. "We are now modeling 250,000 units for the June quarter (up from 50,000) meaning we estimate Apple sold 125,000 iPhones per day, the fastest selling product in Apple's history, beating the previous best of about 59,000 iPod nanos per day," he told clients.

For the 2007 calendar year, Wu is now modeling Apple to sell 2 million iPhones (up from 1 million) and for 2008, 7 million (up from 5 million). In addition, he believes the company's gross margin is benefiting from a favorable component environment and MacBook pro refresh.

For fiscal 2007, the analyst's model calls for $23.5 billion in revenue and $3.50 in earnings-per-share (from $23.3 billion and $3.45) and for fiscal 2008, $30.2 billion and $4.10 (from $30 billion and $4.00).

"For the June quarter, we are now modeling $5.3 billion in revenue and $0.73 in earnings-per-share (from $5.22 billion and $0.70)," he wrote.

Don't forget to check out AppleInsider's own in-depth iPhone review.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

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[aaarrrgggh]

I've got a hunch they sold 250k units retail in the first two days, plus online sales. Not sure if they can record the sale before it ships, so it might not count as a sale for the June quarter, but this is good news for Apple stock.

(Good day to buy... down a dollar.)

[paxan]

hi , all

(quote macnn)
Apple's sales of the iPhone have more than exceeded estimates, according to senior analyst Gene Munster of PiperJaffray. The research group's rough sales figure of about 500,000 units......... (end quote)

so who right?

[anantksundaram]

Wu is talking nonsense. There is nothing more bogus than an analyst using his/her individual subjective consumer experience of a product to make judgments and predictions about large-scale usage and response. It is also unprofessional, and lazy.

(In my similarly subjective view) the virtual keyboard is simply brilliant -- indeed, far easier than anything I've seen or used on "smart"phones. As Mossberg pointed out, you just need to be a little patient with it, and go with the flow, that's all.

The "edit" magnifying glass feature, in particular, is sheer genius.

One missing feature (generic): I wish there was a way to select/cut/copy/paste text. Software update, Apple?

[johnsharrington]

I'm surprised to see so many people say the keyboard is difficult to use. I was typing extremely fast within minutes of activation. It is by far the easiest keyboard I have ever used. (on a phone) While I could type very fast on a BB, it was difficult to type one handed. the iPhone allows you to type with one or two hands very easily.

[BlackSummerNight]

I used the iPhone keyboard, and it's nice, but to say it's better than any other smartphone's physical keyboard is just nonsense. A regular QWERTY keyboard is still king.

[johnsharrington]

Originally Posted by BlackSummerNight

I used the iPhone keyboard, and it's nice, but to say it's better than any other smartphone's physical keyboard is just nonsense. A regular QWERTY keyboard is still king.

Are you challenging me to a type off?

I think it is better than a Qwerty keyboard. Aside from the obvious benefit of having a larger screen and a keyboard only when you need it, it is much easier to type with one hand. It is also adaptable and with some applications (maybe all after a software update) it can rotate with the phone to be used according to how you are using the phone.

I can certainly type as fast or faster than I could on my BB or old Treo. (I haven't timed it, but I will)

[BlackSummerNight]

I think I'll just have to be de-programmed from using my thumbs. I was amazed at how well I was able to type on the iPhone using one finger right from the start.

Originally Posted by johnsharrington

Are you challenging me to a type off?

I think it is better than a Qwerty keyboard. Aside from the obvious benefit of having a larger screen and a keyboard only when you need it, it is much easier to type with one hand. It is also adaptable and with some applications (maybe all after a software update) it can rotate with the phone to be used according to how you are using the phone.

I can certainly type as fast or faster than I could on my BB or old Treo. (I haven't timed it, but I will)

The guy who actually has the iPhone has had 5 people in his office all day wanting to play with his phone. Everyone leaves out saying, "I've got to get one of those."

[PBG4 Dude]

Originally Posted by BlackSummerNight

I think I'll just have to be de-programmed from using my thumbs. I was amazed at how well I was able to type on the iPhone using one finger right from the start.

Wait until you try it with two thumbs/fingers then. I can fly on this keyboard, but I've never used a smartphone before so I don't have any habits to unlearn.

[nagromme]

Clearly, people are not going to spend $499 on a PHONE (and media player, organizer, portable Internet, camera, maps, etc.)

(Yes, I know various other phones cost more anyway.)

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by nagromme

Clearly, people are not going to spend $499 on a PHONE (and media player, organizer, portable Internet, camera, maps, etc.)

No, they are not -- they are going to spend $599!

[aplnub]

Originally Posted by BlackSummerNight

I used the iPhone keyboard, and it's nice, but to say it's better than any other smartphone's physical keyboard is just nonsense. A regular QWERTY keyboard is still king.

That may be up to the person. I can fly faster on the iPhone than my 8703e Blackberry. No contest.

[samurai1999]

Looks like Steve's 'Third Leg' is performing well!


http://www.macrumors.com/2007/07/02/...250000-525000/

Can't wait until we get the 3G version in Europe!

[AISI]

Originally Posted by paxan

(quote macnn)
Apple's sales of the iPhone have more than exceeded estimates, according to senior analyst Gene Munster of PiperJaffray. The research group's rough sales figure of about 500,000 units......... (end quote)

so who right?

Who knows, sales estimates (over the weekend) are all over the map.

• David Bailey, Goldman Sachs: 700,000 units (original estimate: 350,000)
• Trip Chowdhry, Global Equities Research: 525,000 units
• Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: 500,000 units (original estimate: 200,000)
• Bill Shope, J.P. Morgan Securities: 312,000 units
• Shaw Wu, AmTech: 250,000 units (original estimate: 50,000)

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by BlackSummerNight

I think I'll just have to be de-programmed from using my thumbs. I was amazed at how well I was able to type on the iPhone using one finger right from the start.

The apple keyboard demo video claims that one should be proficient in two-thumb operation in a short time. I can't verify that though.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by paxan

(quote macnn)
Apple's sales of the iPhone have more than exceeded estimates, according to senior analyst Gene Munster of PiperJaffray. The research group's rough sales figure of about 500,000 units......... (end quote)

When writing out quotes you can use a special little cahracter called a "quotation mark" for quoting text. On a US keyboard it's just left of the return but you have to hold down shift while depressing it or you'll register an apostrophe. I just thought you should know.

Originally Posted by samurai1999

Looks like Steve's 'Third Leg' is performing well!

A half a million are comstantly touching Steve's third leg. I hope they washed their hands first.

Originally Posted by AISI

Who knows, sales estimates (over the weekend) are all over the map.

• David Bailey, Goldman Sachs: 700,000 units (original estimate: 350,000)
• Trip Chowdhry, Global Equities Research: 525,000 units
• Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: 500,000 units (original estimate: 200,000)
• Bill Shope, J.P. Morgan Securities: 312,000 units
• Shaw Wu, AmTech: 250,000 units (original estimate: 50,000)

Even if we go with the Wu low ball estimates why is the stock suffering today. That is at least a $150,000,000 in gross revenue this weekend alone. I hate the the stock market ever since the internet made it easy to trade. I can't predict a damn thing anymore!

[SpamSandwich]

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news... you know the drill.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news... you know the drill.

Except all this is all still rumor..... with completely wild, wide-ranging estimates (250K - 700K!?).

The "news" will be when Apple and ATT announce what the actual first week of sales were. We will see a flurry of earning estimate revisions from these folks...

[panamajack]

Here's a prediction: a 3G iPhone will be made available (along with the EDGE version) soon after the EU/Asian version is released.

Job's interview actually convinced me somewhat on their choice to go with EDGE for the time being. Nonetheless, giving North American customers a choice between EDGE and HSDPA would make a certain amount of sense until AT&T's 3G network gets more widespread.

Ditto for any Canadian iPhone release; seeing as HSDPA is only available in the Greater Toronto area, Canucks will probably be better served with EDGE.

[MacCentric]

I predict that their press release will come out when they hit the 1 million mark. I predict that this will happen before this Friday at 6pm.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by MacCentric

I predict that their press release will come out when they hit the 1 million mark. I predict that this will happen before this Friday at 6pm.

I concur. Hopefully we'll also get info on the number of new AT&T subscribers.

[waytogobuddy]

IN one of those 'I randomly actually have inside info" postings,
I was (benevolently) led to believe that the weekend total of iphone sales was 150 000. Apple tried to do 200 000, but literally couldn't move enough out the door.

my source used this info for the "launch" which I guess could mean just Friday, but the way the conversation was going, it seemed to mean the weekend.

This explains the stock movement a bit

And Wu consistently makes stuff up.

[Electric Monk]

Originally Posted by panamajack

Here's a prediction: a 3G iPhone will be made available (along with the EDGE version) soon after the EU/Asian version is released.

Job's interview actually convinced me somewhat on their choice to go with EDGE for the time being. Nonetheless, giving North American customers a choice between EDGE and HSDPA would make a certain amount of sense until AT&T's 3G network gets more widespread.

Ditto for any Canadian iPhone release; seeing as HSDPA is only available in the Greater Toronto area, Canucks will probably be better served with EDGE.

According to Engadget:

Originally Posted by Engadget

Ottawa and London Ontario, Montreal Quebec, plus Edmonton and Calgary Alberta are all seeing that fabulous HSDPA icon on their handsets. Nothing official out of Rogers Corporate yet, but the word is that bigger centers should be up and running by Q1 2008 with general rollout by end of the year

Doesn't matter as long as Rogers keeps charging $100 for 100 MB, of course.

As for 3G in North America? Over in my roadmap thread I predicted 3G for Christmas (or at Macworld).

[yama]

If the iPhone really has sold in the region of 700,000 units over the weekend, that is nothing short of staggering!

To put that into perspective, let's compare that with some other high profile devices which have been launched recently:

Wii: 600,000 units after 8 days.
Xbox 360: 326,000 units after 8 days.
PS3: 81,639 units after 24 hours.

I tried finding information about the Zune (you know, for fun) and the best I could find was that Microsoft is aiming to sell 1,000,000 by June i.e. 8 months after it launched in November last year.

Yet we still get reputable news sources like the BBC quoting that the iPhone launch numbers haven't been impressive... I dunno

[SpamSandwich]

These figures are complete horse***! They have no inside knowledge of sales at any other locations than the coastal cities... which I'm pretty certain have much higher interest than middle America!

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by waytogobuddy

IN one of those 'I randomly actually have inside info" postings,
I was (benevolently) led to believe that the weekend total of iphone sales was 150 000. Apple tried to do 200 000, but literally couldn't move enough out the door.

my source used this info for the "launch" which I guess could mean just Friday, but the way the conversation was going, it seemed to mean the weekend.

This explains the stock movement a bit

And Wu consistently makes stuff up.

I am sure I must be the only one -- but your post makes no sense at all.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by yama

I tried finding information about the Zune (you know, for fun) and the best I could find was that Microsoft is aiming to sell 1,000,000 by June i.e. 8 months after it launched in November last year.

Just over a month ago MS announced that it shipped one million Zunes. Which means absolutely nothing. If it did, Apple could say it shipped 1 million iPhones before they even went on sale last Friday.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Just over a month ago MS announced that it shipped one million Zunes. Which means absolutely nothing. If it did, Apple could say it shipped 1 million iPhones before they even went on sale last Friday.

That was people misinterpreting what an MS exec said:

"When we finish our fiscal year in June we'll have sold a little over a million Zunes."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl.../MICROSOFT.TMP

To find the quote, do a search or read to about a third of the way down.

They probably didn't sell over a million as of a month ago, but they might have three days ago, when their fiscal year ended.

[HHansen726]

If Apple releases a 3G model at Christmas time, don't you think those same people who made the purchases that enabled them to reach that mark will be angry enough to create the reverse? They will not want to purchase another phone so soon, even with 3G at the price at current or it might be higher. The Nokia N95 for example is costing over $700.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

That was people misinterpreting what an MS exec said:

"When we finish our fiscal year in June we'll have sold a little over a million Zunes."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl.../MICROSOFT.TMP

To find the quote, do a search or read to about a third of the way down.

They probably didn't sell over a million as of a month ago, but they might have three days ago, when their fiscal year ended.

Funny! The article I looked up to confirm what I had read last month linked directly to that article. I guess I should have gone that extra step.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by HHansen726

If Apple releases a 3G model at Christmas time, don't you think those same people who made the purchases that enabled them to reach that mark will be angry enough to create the reverse? They will not want to purchase another phone so soon, even with 3G at the price at current or it might be higher. The Nokia N95 for example is costing over $700.

These people waited in lines for hours and even days. The 1G iPhone will still have tremendous value and these people will be waiting in line again.

However, I don't think it will happen. We will see new Mac designs and maybe some upgraded (though not revamped) iPods just after the back to school deals end. I don't think we'll see a new iPhone model for the US until Macworld '08.


PS: Here in India the Nokia N95 is going for $900 and the PS3 for $1000 (after converting from Rupees). I'm not sure these prices can be bartered.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Funny! The article I looked up to confirm what I had read last month linked directly to that article. I guess I should have gone that extra step.

It's an honest mistake. There is also the question of whether sold means the end user has it or sold as in distributors or retailers has taken delivery of that many, in the hopes of finding an end user. For what it's worth, our Office Depot chain has Zunes at a clearance price of US$200 now.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by HHansen726

If Apple releases a 3G model at Christmas time, don't you think those same people who made the purchases that enabled them to reach that mark will be angry enough to create the reverse? They will not want to purchase another phone so soon, even with 3G at the price at current or it might be higher. The Nokia N95 for example is costing over $700.

No one has to upgrade their existing product for the next generation. If they choose to, they are free to do so, though I think it's silly unless there is some necessity. Some Apple fans do seem to have this "need" to upgrade at every generation and complain if the upgrade isn't big enough for them to make it worth it.

N95 is a bit of a different beast, but I think it was said several times on these boards that a lot of smart phones are more expensive than iPhone already. I think N95 is the one that has decent camera elements in it, rather unlike other phones with fixed focus lenses and pinhead sensors. Those improved camera elements do take more space and probably cost a lot more.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

That was people misinterpreting what an MS exec said:

"When we finish our fiscal year in June we'll have sold a little over a million Zunes."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl.../MICROSOFT.TMP

To find the quote, do a search or read to about a third of the way down.

They probably didn't sell over a million as of a month ago, but they might have three days ago, when their fiscal year ended.

Zune Insider states that the article you posted was also misquoted within that article. They even have an audio feed of the interview. I'm not sure if the link you both refer to has been corrected but I thought I'd point it out.

http://zuneinsider.com/archive/2007/...e-players.aspx

Original SF Chroncial podcast :: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfga...entry_id=16912

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Zune Insider states that the article you posted was also misquoted within that article. They even have an audio feed of the interview. I'm not sure if the link you both refer to has been corrected but I thought I'd point it out.

http://zuneinsider.com/archive/2007/...e-players.aspx

Original SF Chroncial podcast :: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfga...entry_id=16912

The article doesn't acknowledge any corrections that were made, I have not found out what the uncorrected text was. Archive.org doesn't have it and Google cache shows the same text.

Edit:
http://www.zune-online.com/news/zune...n-players.html

It was: "We've sold over a little over a million Zunes".

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh

Not sure if they can record the sale before it ships, so it might not count as a sale for the June quarter, but this is good news for Apple stock.

I don't see why not. There was still a transaction. They took my money.

[AISI]

If newswireless.net is to be believed we'll from Apple before the end of the week. Vodafone "will confirm Euro iPhone deal when one million phones are sold" - Thursday?

Originally Posted by newswireless.net

However, actual registrations through AT&T - not sales, but completed "activation" of iPhone accounts - showed that by last night, more than 600,000 users were online. At this rate, the magic million will be reached some time tomorrow (Wednesday) - possibly even sooner, say sources, who think that the number of customers who have bought (but still can't use) their iPhones is very high.

[waytogobuddy]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

I am sure I must be the only one -- but your post makes no sense at all.

um. complete sense apparently. As my post said, 150 000 phones.

http://blogs.business2.com/apple/200...-third-qu.html