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#1 |
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Kasper's Automated Slave
Join Date: Nov 1997
Posts: 6,157
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About 25 percent of iPhone buyers are 'switchers' to AT&T - firm
About one quarter of consumers adopting Apple's heavily-hyped iPhone handset are 'switchers' to AT&T from other carriers, financial firm American Technology Research reported on Friday, citing unnamed sources.
"We find these numbers impressive, showing that a fair amount of customers are willing to pay high early cancellation fees (~$125-$200) to get out of their existing service contracts for an iPhone," analyst Shaw Wu wrote in the report. The analyst said the only other product in recent history to command a similar type of respect (at least in the beginning) was the Motorola RAZR in mid- to late-2004. Initially priced at $500 with a service contract and $800 without, the super-slim handset eventually saw subsidies and went on to enjoy phenomenal success, selling in excess of 50 million units. "We believe both instances indicate that high price points are not an issue for early adopters who purchase the first few million units," Wu told clients. Meanwhile, the analyst also cited sources in reiterating that Vodafone remains the front-runner and most likely carrier partner for iPhone in Europe, primarily due to its large subscriber base, broad geographic coverage, and investment in advanced technology. "However, due to AT&T's success and ability to gain new customers with iPhone in the USA, other carriers including Orange, T-Mobile and O2 are aggressively bidding for European iPhone rights, giving Vodafone stiff competition," Wu wrote. "From our understanding, there could be a scenario where iPhone has multiple carrier partnerships (maximizing its market potential) with each tailored for specific regions and/or countries, i.e. Vodafone in the UK, T-Mobile in Germany, and Orange in France." Regardless of which carrier gets picked for iPhone rights in Europe, the AmTech analyst believes Apple is in a strong position to end up with terms just as favorable as those granted by AT&T in the U.S, where the company collects bounties and recurring monthly service fees from the carrier. "We believe that potential carrier partners are more willing to accept Apple's tough terms and conditions given Apple's strong brand name and mainstream appeal and iPhone's ability to lure customers away from other carriers," he wrote. Over the next 2-3 years, Wu expects iPhone to bring smart phone technology into the mainstream, particularly as Apple rounds out the handset's product line with mid-range and entry-level offerings, just as it did with the iPod and portable media players. "We believe the iPhone is among must-own gifts for this year's holiday shopping season," he told clients. Wu, who maintains a 'Buy' rating on shares of the Cupertino-based Apple, said he's already seeing the potential for upside to his $165 per-share target. |
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#2 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Ansible
Posts: 11,817
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An intelligent well rounded review by Shaw. I guess he's been reading these forums lately.
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#3 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,224
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Quote:
So Wu's analysis may be overestimating the negative impact on ATT's competitors. The iPhone may well have expanded the market for mobile phones. |
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#4 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 132
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I wonder how many people did what I did...
I switched 2 days before the iphone came out. That way, I got 3 free camera phones, then bought 3 iphones and activated them. That way, I was an existing customer (so no problems with activation and portability), but switched for the iphone. I guess technically I was not an iphone switcher, but in reality, I was. |
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#5 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Jersey (new)
Posts: 1,001
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Quote:
I am only 6 months into a 2 year with Cing--AT&T and I figured that I would have to wait another year before getting the iPhone or end up with a really long contract or something. To be honest, I didn't want to be tempted to get the iPhone right away, so that was working for me, but I guess I should know if I was under a misapprehension...
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c. |
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#6 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 973
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#7 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Ansible
Posts: 11,817
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Quote:
If Wu's numbers are correct. Then 25% of a supposed 1M is 250k customers. If you assume that half of these were previous smartphone owners and half weren't and figure a monthly average of $60 for service, then the total yearly loss is $180,000,000. There is in no way to be accurate here without having more exacting figures but it does give you an idea of what the iPhone has already done for AT&T, why the other carriers aren't happy about it and how this is helping Apple's overseas negotiations. If we consider how many will be willing to switch once their contracts are up and, to a lesser degree, the ones who are willing to stay with AT&T because of the iPhone then we really start to see a massive revenue stream for AT&T and a noticeable dent in the other carriers in years to come. I just hope AT&T has decided to up their network to 3G in preparation for the next iPhone. Last edited by solipsism; 07-13-2007 at 11:13 AM.. |
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#8 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 747
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I have a feeling that a lot of switchers to ATT were already out of contract with their old carrier. I'm out of contract with ATT, but just keep paying them monthly. If I had been with Sprint I could have changed at no cost. One of the reasons why we were given a 6 month warning on the iPhone - about 25% of the 2 year contract customers will be able to let their old contract expire before the iPhone was available, and about 50% will eb free by the Christmas shopping season.
Ken
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#9 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 9
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Quote:
Also, I got &200 in rebates on my old/new phones and sold them for another $75. So in essence I went from a family plan with Sprint at $95 a month to a family plan with roll over with ATT/2 iPhones for $90 a month and sold equipment for $275.00. So all in all, it was a fair shift considering how I could not get a new Sprint phone very cheap, only a mere 100 rebate, so this way I got the phone I wanted, more minutes, data and such for slightly less. My contract that was 29 days old was null and voided by the iPhone which extended 2 years from the date I activated it. Very simple. |
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#10 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Jersey (new)
Posts: 1,001
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Quote:
![]() ![]() ![]() ARE YOU CALLINg ME STUPID??/? I am offended!!! ![]() ![]() ![]() Oh, wait. Wrong thread. ![]() I dunno. I always thought you had to wait until one contract was up to start another. Does that not apply to the iPhone because there are no consumer subsidies? Or was I just missing something all these years... Anyway, if that would have worked for anyone, Studiomusic makes other switchers look like fools if he really did get three free other phones in the bargan... Wish I was that smart...
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c. |
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#11 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: ASHLAND, KY
Posts: 1,818
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AI can you stop that HP add it takes forever to get rid of and is obtrusive
this gathering of competitors cutomers is a huge thing, it cost a bundle to switch a player in the "old pre iphone world" and europe, japan , asia etc are watching. i raised this in another post, but this is what AT&T wanted and what verizon was scared about. how much NOW will it cost verizon to get them back....maybe never, if apple keeps upgrading iphone, intergrates with ipod and boom a new business model. gee actually be able to keep your customers get away from the rebates and push this new sensation. other markets are listening VERY close,. having the iphone is a huge competitive edge regardless of the "network". it could make a number 2 or 3 or 4 in market number one for a long time
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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#12 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: ASHLAND, KY
Posts: 1,818
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Quote:
i hink apple making the announcement and the rumors lasting over 6 months "told" many to hold off extending their contract. thats me, i heard then waited...bingo will get the iphone. Christmas season will therefore be HUGE. this puts more momentum to the iphne and enhances SJ's negotiations with the other markets.
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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#13 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 535
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I'm with the poster who said he got three phones. I'm only getting one, but I plan on selling it to support my iPhone fix. I'm might just pay 30 bucks to get a nice phone and sell it for $250.00
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#14 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 199
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I held off renewing a contract with T-Mobile in anticipation of the iPhone being locked to a carrier. I left them paying no cancellation fee. |
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#15 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: NYC
Posts: 19,612
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#16 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: NYC
Posts: 19,612
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Quote:
If so, it then comes out to $240 million on a yearly basis. And that's just for the first 10 days of customers. We don't know how many more have signed up since the stores have started to be re-stocked. If this holds true for the rest of the year, and we see 5 million sales (one analyst is expecting 8 million!), the losses for other carriers, and the gains to ATT would be phenomenal. |
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#17 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 59
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Is it 25%, or 51%
USA Today is reporting that a survey conducted by Interpret of Santa Monica found that 51% of iPhone buyers were switchers to ATT, and this survey says 25%. Wonder who is right. (If either one)
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#18 |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 973
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Nope, doesn't apply to any phone or carrier that I'm aware of. You can always start up a new service of some kind and restart your two year commitment. The only thing that they really limit is when you can get a discount on a new phone, which is only with less than 6 months left on your contract.
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#19 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 206
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[QUOTE=Bageljoey;1111442]How did that work? did you sign up with 2 year contracts and then re-up for 2 more years on the iPhone? Or did the iPhone contract trump the existing contracts?
I am only 6 months into a 2 year with Cing--AT&T and I figured that I would have to wait another year before getting the iPhone or end up with a really long contract or something. To be honest, I didn't want to be tempted to get the iPhone right away, so that was working for me, but I guess I should know if I was under a misapprehension...[/QUOT this is how it works, i got 2 phones from att for free with a 2 years contract a month ago, when iphone came out i sold them on ebay, since there was 23 more months left on the contract, an i have got new phones the original contract gets cancel and you start fresh again for 2 year, some people don't know that you can always extend the contract again so you wont have to pay full price on your phones ![]() |
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#20 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 21
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Ok, so AI is in my daily rumor reading list.., but then again , so is Macrumors.com.
How about i just read an article from MR... citing some very incongruent stats with what is mentioned in this article. I find that very odd... that 2 entities "in the know" could be so far apart in their reports... Here is an excerpt from the MR article. ------------------------ USA Today reports that early iPhone adopters are overwhelmingly happy with their iPhones. In one of the first such studies, 90% of 200 owners said they were "extremely" or "very" satisfied with their phone. And 85% said they are "extremely" or "very" likely to recommend the device to others, says the online survey conducted and paid for by market researcher Interpret of Santa Monica, Calif. The firm surveyed 1,000 cellphone users July 6-10. Of course, early adopters are a special population and may not reflect the satisfaction of later consumers as a whole. Some other interesting statistics that came from the studies are included: • 51% of buyers were switching to AT&T from another carrier • 35% of carrier switchers paid an early termination fee (avg $167) to switch • 3 of 10 were first-time Apple customers. • for 4 of 10, the iPhone was their first iPod • New iPhone owners expected to pay about $35 more a month than their previous cellphone. Meanwhile, Forbes publishes a report that Telefonica SA's O2 mobile phone unit has reached an agreement to become the exclusive network partner for Apple's iPhone in the UK. Sales are reported to begin "shortly". Vodafone had reportedly been a front runner in negotiations but in the end felt that the commercial terms were not viable. ------------------------- 51% is alot different that the reported 25%.... and how does one guy say Vodafone is still the front runner... and another guy say O2 is.... ON THE SAME DAY? Someone needs to do some more digging |
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#21 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 240
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Ahh, hubris.
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#22 | ||
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Ansible
Posts: 11,817
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Quote:
The 25% for switchers is also half of what I've been reading and I would bet money that Apple has sold well over a million phones so far. Quote:
• 30% are new to Apple products • 40% have never owned an iPod • 51% came from other carriers (25% from Verizon) http://www.usatoday.com/tech/wireles...2-iphone_N.htm |
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#23 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: NYC
Posts: 19,612
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Quote:
One might be monitoring Apple stores, while the others' numbers might be from ATT stores. Different customers. I would imagine Apple customers would be more likely to buy their phones at an Apple store, if possible (due to the small number of stores), and the non-Apple people would likely go to ATT's stores. |
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#24 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Oregon
Posts: 10
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Quote:
Well what happens when Jobs influence rubs off, and ATT has fixed the issues in their network and service, and as iPhone prices continue dropping as we know they will in the coming years, there will be nothing to stop them. |
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#25 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: London
Posts: 192
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Quote:
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#26 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Ansible
Posts: 11,817
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Quote:
25% switchers at the $60/month plan is $3.6B over a two year contract. Obviously we double that for 50% switchers. From the one survey it will be Verizon losing the most here. If we assume that Apple is getting 10% ($6) in monthly returns for each iPhone customer from AT&T, and use the lowest figure of $60/month we see Apple generating an extra $1.4B in that same two year period on top of the revenue from the sale of the iPhone and accessories. |
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#27 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 8,453
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Quote:
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"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield, and government to gain ground."
—Thomas Jefferson Proud AAPL stock owner. |
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#28 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 719
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Quote:
However, what is more likely, is that the 1000 surveyed for the 51% outcome were from a specific region of the US that, perhaps, is a little more affluent than average, and so more people were willing to let go of current contracts. What's the real number? Well, you'd have to design a good survey (and not just do an "exit poll" at one or two locations -- which I suspect is how the 25% and 51% statistics were obtained). |
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#29 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 719
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#30 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 135
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I switched from Verison, but my contract had been up since December. No extra fees for me
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#31 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cleveland (Home) Chicago (School)
Posts: 158
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Quote:
(Looks like I was too late; but I think AI should report this too, or at least acknowledge it in their article). -=|Mgkwho
17" MBP
Last edited by mgkwho; 07-13-2007 at 12:49 PM.. |
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#32 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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I was month-to-month with Sprint for years at a time. I just started a new 2yr contract a couple months ago because I really needed to replace the old phone, it was starting to go bad. It was somewhat unfortunate that I found myself with extra money when the iPhone was released, but I didn't want to buy into a platform that's still effectively in beta.
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#33 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
Its not just Verizon, though. The way the cellular industry has worked for AGES is that the carriers have all the power, all the control, and when they shout "JUMP!", the cell phone makers are there to ask "How high?". ![]() The one cell phone maker who tried to go against that was Nokia, a few years back, and they were slapped down very hard for it by the carriers, and saw their worldwide marketshare drop for awhile. So Apple, coming out of the blue, making all those demands, must've looked very funny to Verizon, given what they were used to. Kind of like the mailroom boy telling the CEO to carry his backpack. ATT was the only large carrier willing to listen, because, well, they were getting beat up going head-to-head with Verizon, and they were going to lose the #1 spot among US carriers. Sprint's in worse shape now than ATT was then, but their problems have been piling only recently... back when Jobs was looking around for a partner, Sprint wasn't imploding as of yet. I personally love that Apple may be restoring some balance of power between the carriers and the phone makers. The carriers dictate to the phone makers what phones to make, what features to enable or disable, etc. etc., and of course the decisions are all based on what makes money for the carrier... even if that involves making the phone less good from a consumer point of view. ![]() The phone makers have never been super-happy with that, because they could probably make better phones without the carriers 'backseat designing' and insisting that certain features be removed or watered-down. ![]() .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#34 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
Of course, I'll still have to see where ATT's network is at then, before I'll even consider switching. .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#35 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Jersey (new)
Posts: 1,001
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I agree completely. It is easy to say in hindsight, after 6 months of iPhone mania and hype that no one could have expected and then an amazing first two weeks of iPhone release that Verizon is run by idiots. But they were in a dominant position back when Apple approached them and it probably seemed crazy for them to risk setting these new precedents when everything was working well for them with the status quo. With vision and guts they could have gone with the iPhone (imagine the juggernaught they would be) but it certainly did not seem so compelling a year ago.
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c. |
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#36 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: ASHLAND, KY
Posts: 1,818
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all the above is music (no pun intended) to SJ's ears, strengthens negotiations with other markets, pisses verizon's board to no end, major halo effect, look to higher stock prices. SJ is on top of the world, those switches won't ever go back, and any that switch from at&t will be low end POWER TO THE AP
PLE.
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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#37 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 535
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So you're ok with APple having all the power, but not a celluar carrier.....care to explain why. I'm sure it was Apple who crippled the bluetooth!
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#38 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
![]() I'm gonna guess it was Apple, though hopefully for good reasons (security, we haven't finished the file browser yet, etc.), and not reasons like why Verizon does it to most of their phones ("So that we can charge you for picture transfers, muhahahaha!!! ).And I did not say that Apple should have ALL the power, only that there should be a 'balance' of power between the phone makers and the carriers. Because, the carriers routinely run roughshod over the phone makers, often to the detriment of the consumer. Read up on it, its actually some pretty fascinating stuff. ![]() .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#39 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Maybe, depending on how the ATT network performs.
![]() .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#40 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 535
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I guess I'm just use to using a Cingular smartphone with no restrictions. I didn't see any type of restrictions on Cingular's phones, until the iPhone was introduced. Hell, my phone is even unlocked.
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Last edited by BlackSummerNight; 07-13-2007 at 02:26 PM.. |
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