Apple's U.S. Mac market share rises to 5.6 percent in Q2

[AppleInsider]

U.S. shipments of Apple's Mac computer line grew 26 percent during the second quarter of 2007, according to just released data from market research firm IDC.

The firm said Apple shipped 960,000 units within the U.S. during the three-month period, good enough for a 5.6 percent share of the overall U.S. PC market and fourth place on its list of top vendors.

Apple's U.S. share is up from 4.8 percent during the year-ago quarter when it shipped 761,000 units, according to IDC's historical data.

The Cupertino-based Mac maker was bested only by Dell, HP and Gateway, respectively. Dell maintained its rank as the top U.S. vendor, having shipped 4.85 million units for a 28.4 percent U.S. share. However, it continued to see its share of the market eroded by rivals, registering a near 11 percent yearly decline.

For its part, HP grabbed a 23.6 percent share through shipments of just over 4 million units, representing 26 percent growth year-over-year. In third place was Gateway, having edged Apple by a mere 5000 units as it saw growth decline more than 7 percent from the year-ago quarter.

Overall, IDC said the PC market accelerated to 7.2 percent growth during the quarter as aggressive competition and repositioning continued following a slow second half of 2006. The notebook market remained particularly strong, driven by consumer retail and channel activity. Although Desktop shipments continued to contract, shipment volume was higher than anticipated, the firm said.

From a worldwide perspective, PC shipments grew by 12.5 during the quarter, with Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) returning as the fastest growing region with volume increasing more than 20 percent from the same quarter one year ago. IDC also cited competitive market in the United States as helping boost overall growth with other regions expanding in line with or slightly behind forecasts.



"This was another strong quarter that sets the stage for solid growth in the second half of 2007 and 2008," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "The success of HP and Acer as well as the rapid changes occurring at Dell in recent quarters underline just how dynamic the PC market is these days. Despite the temptation to simplify, the market is not just about replacing systems at the lowest cost. System design, customer service, channel coverage, and market expansion are all playing key roles in winning business."

Apple did not rank amongst IDC's top worldwide PC vendors, and hence the company's worldwide shipment data was not available.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[eAi]

I wonder how far off the bottom of the worldwide table they are... I'd imagine the US is Apple's major market, followed fairly closely by Europe, so perhaps they double what they sell in the US?

[SpamSandwich]

Congratulations, Apple (c'mon, Steve we know you read AppleInsider...admit it )!

[AISI]

Originally Posted by eAi

I'd imagine the US is Apple's major market, followed fairly closely by Europe, so perhaps they double what they sell in the US?

In the second calendar quarter of 2006, Mac sales in the U.S. accounted for 57 percent of all Mac sales (760,000 out of 1.327 million). With 960,000 units sold in the U.S. this quarter, Apple will sell about 1.68 million Macs worldwide if the U.S./World ratio stays constant.

[MacGregor]

Good news, I sure hope this continues!

However looking at the table, even though we can see Apple move past anemic Gateway, I wouldn't be surprised if Acer and Lenevo (who are increasing share at more than twice Apple's rate) pass Apple. Dell continues to fall, but Apple is only picking up 1% a year, the others are picking up more. (One percent per year at its size is actually a sweet spot and I'm not sure Apple could do better and maintain quality.)

Still, it is good news and it is good for the industry as a whole to have a broader supply-side than one or two companies. If Apple can get to 10% in 5 years, that would be huge and a great foundation for further development on the next great platform/device of the future. By then, who knows how platform agnostic the internet and computing will become.

[mrpiddly]

If only apple realeased a $100 PC and then sold like a billion of them to developing nations. They would all run a OSX too. If apple ever did that and they actually sold a large number, that would make the tables turn quite a bit.


(i really dont wont this to happen and think that apple should instead focus on the high end of the market in all areas.)

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by MacGregor

Good news, I sure hope this continues!

However looking at the table, even though we can see Apple move past anemic Gateway, I wouldn't be surprised if Acer and Lenevo (who are increasing share at more than twice Apple's rate) pass Apple. Dell continues to fall, but Apple is only picking up 1% a year, the others are picking up more. (One percent per year at its size is actually a sweet spot and I'm not sure Apple could do better and maintain quality.)

Still, it is good news and it is good for the industry as a whole to have a broader supply-side than one or two companies. If Apple can get to 10% in 5 years, that would be huge and a great foundation for further development on the next great platform/device of the future. By then, who knows how platform agnostic the internet and computing will become.

I agree. I think Apple has probably already surpassed Gateway for Q3 from April to June. and that HP will overtake Dell in Q4 or Q1 2008. But as you say, Acer and Toshiba can very easily push Apple back to 4th or 5th place.

Still, I'm not concerned about any of this. As long as Apple is selling more than the previous year while maintaining it's margins I'm fine.

[Sunbow]

Originally Posted by AISI

In the second calendar quarter of 2006, Mac sales in the U.S. accounted for 57 percent of all Mac sales (760,000 out of 1.327 million). With 960,000 units sold in the U.S. this quarter, Apple will sell about 1.68 million Macs worldwide if the U.S./World ratio stays constant.

And given the lower penetration of Apple into businesses compared with the home suggests a much higher than 5.6% share of the home market. How soon might we all expect the 'halo effect' of these home sales to drive people at all levels of employment from new entrants to senior managers to 'demand' Macs? (Between now and around 2010 I suspect quite a few more managers who know the advantages of Macs will be achieving senior management positions and at present, it looks like this trend will continue.)

And how long will CIOs (who I get the impression have had some fairly authoritarian views about what IT people can use in their Companies) be able to resist moving to a more modern collaborative style of management and allow a wider range of systems to be used.

Tired old arguments about it being more expensive to manage mixed networks should be replaced with the realisation that the internet reveals, that many different client (and server) computers can work together and that diversity has its advantages (compare with nature (mono-cultures) etc. where there are serious risks to having one variety of something). Preparedness for 'Business Continuity' (in relation to cyber-threats and malware for example) is improved if we don't depend on one type of system that presents vulnerabilities that are common across all clients and servers in an organisation.

[aegisdesign]

I'm sure analysts love market share figures but it's meaningless for software developers. The important factor is that the market for software is growing by up to 26%* not that we've now got 5.6% of the entire PC market.

That's the important figure - the market for Mac software has grown 26%.

In the same time the market for the entire PC industry only grew 7.2%

The market for Mac software developers is increasingly healthy, more so than Windows.


* I say 'up to' as obviously some of those sales are to existing Mac users, not new users.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by Sunbow

And given the lower penetration of Apple into businesses compared with the home suggests a much higher than 5.6% share of the home market.

I agree. And there are all those crappy, cheap Windows PCs being used as a POS machine or a timecard clock or what ever other single use function that needs to tie into a server or access a printer. If we take machines running modern processors that were released within the last 18 months or machines that are $1000 or higher we find that Apple has significantly more marketshare. If they checked installed base vs. marketshare then we find that Mac lifespan is significantly higher than that of a budget PC and therefore has to be replaced more often thereby adding to the PC's marketshare. F#$k marketshare!

Originally Posted by Sunbow

And how long will CIOs ... be able to resist moving to a more modern collaborative style of management and allow a wider range of systems to be used.

A loooong time. If a company were to move to OS X then they are now locked into Apple hardware. By using x PC vendor they can switch to y PC vendor if the quality of x is sub-par or if y offers a better deal. All while maintaining the same OS.

The silver lining in this for Apple is if a company moves completely to web based applications without using ActiveX. This would also a mix of both Macs and PCs while still maintaining the same level pr productivity and access. It is my opinion that Apple's primary goal in select open standards is to make the transition into the workplace a future consideration. But will it work?

Originally Posted by Sunbow

Tired old arguments about it being more expensive to manage mixed networks should be replaced with the realisation that the internet reveals, that many different client (and server) computers can work together and that diversity has its advantages (compare with nature (mono-cultures) etc. where there are serious risks to having one variety of something).

That goes along with my silver lining statement above.

[PBG4 Dude]

For Apple to make inroads in business, they need serious database support. No, I don't mean FileMaker Pro either, I'm talking a dbms that can support hundreds of users and allow access to hundreds of gigabytes of data.

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by PBG4 Dude

For Apple to make inroads in business, they need serious database support. No, I don't mean FileMaker Pro either, I'm talking a dbms that can support hundreds of users and allow access to hundreds of gigabytes of data.

You have to wonder when Apple will unleash some enterprise database management solutions. They are hardly inexperienced given their little set up, aka iTunes. Or is someone going to ruin my day and tell me that all runs on PCs using MS File?

[Digital Disasta]

Am I the only one that gets kind of nervous when I hear that Apple is gaining market share? Yeah it's good for the company to grow, but I don't think it's so good for us on the other end. If more people are buying Macs more people are going to be looking for/making malicious software/spyware/viri. I like the fact that I do not have any spyware software or anti-virus software installed, or need to worry about any of it.

[Clive At Five]

I think Apple will top out at about 30% of the market share. I really think PCs will remain prominent in most workplaces and there will be a nearly a 50-50 dichotomy among home users... all this by 2015 or so. That is, if people still use computers by then.

-Clive

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by Digital Disasta

Am I the only one that gets kind of nervous when I hear that Apple is gaining market share? Yeah it's good for the company to grow, but I don't think it's so good for us on the other end. If more people are buying Macs more people are going to be looking for/making malicious software/spyware/viri. I like the fact that I do not have any spyware software or anti-virus software installed, or need to worry about any of it.

Double edged sword. In the early 90's we experienced Apple losing share and almost, but for SJ's return, going for good. I guess you either grow or die and the down side you mention of growing just has to be dealt with. Better to have my Mac and potential attacks down the road than no Mac. I suspect Apple will never allow the chaos PC users experience - no basis for this other than faith in Apple I guess.

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

I think Apple will top out at about 30% of the market share. I really think PCs will remain prominent in most workplaces and there will be a nearly a 50-50 dichotomy among home users... all this by 2015 or so. That is, if people still use computers by then.

-Clive

If you are even half right my AAPL will be worth enough by then to retire in real luxury . Here is hoping.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

If you are even half right my AAPL will be worth enough by then to retire in real luxury . Here is hoping.

You think?

How much do you figure it will be worth by then? I figure for anyone to retire in luxury, you must be assuming such a scenario would result in 10x your money right?

That makes Apple a 1.2 trillion dollar company. You think that's likely?

[vinea]

Given these numbers and how strong Toshiba is it would be hoped that the xMac frevor would die down a bit. Toshiba has no desktop line at all...which shows desktops are not required for share growth or a top 5 share position worldwide.

Vinea

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by cameronj

You think?

How much do you figure it will be worth by then? I figure for anyone to retire in luxury, you must be assuming such a scenario would result in 10x your money right?

That makes Apple a 1.2 trillion dollar company. You think that's likely?

Where does 10x come from? It is all relative to how much is invested.

[PBG4 Dude]

Originally Posted by cameronj

You think?

How much do you figure it will be worth by then? I figure for anyone to retire in luxury, you must be assuming such a scenario would result in 10x your money right?

That makes Apple a 1.2 trillion dollar company. You think that's likely?

Actually, if you invested in AAPL in 2002, you would have about 20x growth as of today.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Where does 10x come from? It is all relative to how much is invested.

I know - I was just throwing out a figure - if you already have 1,000,000 to invest in Apple and all you are hoping for is a double, you probably wouldn't have phrased it the way the OP did. So yeah, I just took a number out of thin air. Say you put 20,000 in Apple stock. That's a whole lot for most people, right? Even if you are "only" hoping for 5x, you still only get to 100,000 (not enough to retire in luxury in most universes), and Apple still has to nearly reach that magical 1 trillion mark.

My point is that while I think the growth prospects for Apple are outstanding in terms of product sales and profits, I don't think the potential for the stock to rise is nearly as good, since much of that, in my opinion, has already happened.

As illustration, look at Microsoft. It is priced in the same range as it was 5 years ago, but earnings have grown substantially since then.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by PBG4 Dude

Actually, if you invested in AAPL in 2002, you would have about 20x growth as of today.

Which illustrates my point. Apple already had it's 5 year period of making people rich. That's not going to happen in the next 5 years again.

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by cameronj

You think?

How much do you figure it will be worth by then? I figure for anyone to retire in luxury, you must be assuming such a scenario would result in 10x your money right?

That makes Apple a 1.2 trillion dollar company. You think that's likely?

I bought at just over $30 so already doing great I stuck a lot of my IRA in and so did the wife plus a lot more. I just knew Apple was about to go main stream.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by PBG4 Dude

Actually, if you invested in AAPL in 2002, you would have about 20x growth as of today.

Some of us have had more than 1,000% growth. Not bad.

[Electric Monk]

Originally Posted by eAi

I wonder how far off the bottom of the worldwide table they are... I'd imagine the US is Apple's major market, followed fairly closely by Europe, so perhaps they double what they sell in the US?

Japan used to be their number two market, but then they ignored it and Apple Japan shot themselves repeatedly in the head to avoid facing reality.

Point? I have no point. Just bitterness.

[vinea]

Originally Posted by Electric Monk

Japan used to be their number two market, but then they ignored it and Apple Japan shot themselves repeatedly in the head to avoid facing reality.

Point? I have no point. Just bitterness.

A ultraportable notebook would go a long way toward fixing that market. Dunno why the iMac does poorly.

Vinea

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

I bought at just over $30 so already doing great I stuck a lot of my IRA in and so did the wife plus a lot more. I just knew Apple was about to go main stream.

Outstanding! Wish I had done that too. The question remains, however, of what to do with your Apple shares now that you have a 500% profit? hold out and wait for another 500%? Or ask yourself if Apple's shares have seen the bulk of their fast increases.

My assumption is that I will hold Apple for another 6 months or so, or until it hits around $150. At that point I hope I'm smart enough to let someone else hold it as it deflates or treads water for a few years, as earnings catch up to stock price.

Nothing personal against anyone who disagrees - we're all here to make money (well at least those of us who hijacked this thread to talk about stocks ) Reasonable people can disagree about what will happen in the future of the stock market, right?

[e1618978]

Originally Posted by cameronj

I know - I was just throwing out a figure - if you already have 1,000,000 to invest in Apple and all you are hoping for is a double, you probably wouldn't have phrased it the way the OP did. So yeah, I just took a number out of thin air. Say you put 20,000 in Apple stock. That's a whole lot for most people, right? Even if you are "only" hoping for 5x, you still only get to 100,000 (not enough to retire in luxury in most universes), and Apple still has to nearly reach that magical 1 trillion mark.

My point is that while I think the growth prospects for Apple are outstanding in terms of product sales and profits, I don't think the potential for the stock to rise is nearly as good, since much of that, in my opinion, has already happened.

As illustration, look at Microsoft. It is priced in the same range as it was 5 years ago, but earnings have grown substantially since then.

If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by e1618978

If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...

I hope that was all tongue in cheek....

While you're throwing out crazy ideas, why not include Nokia at it's peak too, and don't forget about Adobe (after all, doesn't adobe make a lot of money from video editing software?) and of course you can't forget adding in the market value of Tivo (Apple TV) and why not also throw in a dash of Logitech (those Apple mice rock!)...

[Sunbow]

Originally Posted by PBG4 Dude

For Apple to make inroads in business, they need serious database support. No, I don't mean FileMaker Pro either, I'm talking a dbms that can support hundreds of users and allow access to hundreds of gigabytes of data.

Well clearly there are more powerful database systems than Filemaker but you'll need to specify tougher criteria than that to exceed Filemaker's limits!

Since Filemaker 7 you've been able to develop Filemaker DBs with up to 7 TeraBytes of data, 250 simultaneous Filemaker client users and (at the same time) 100 simultaneous web users (and you can also add in up to 50 ODBC clients).

For many, even quite large Company database projects (unless you are talking all staff in say a multi-national), Filemaker is a great product.

[Electric Monk]

Originally Posted by vinea

A ultraportable notebook would go a long way toward fixing that market. Dunno why the iMac does poorly.

Vinea

No built-in TV tuner is the first thing that comes to mind.

[e1618978]

Originally Posted by cameronj

I hope that was all tongue in cheek....

While you're throwing out crazy ideas, why not include Nokia at it's peak too, and don't forget about Adobe (after all, doesn't adobe make a lot of money from video editing software?) and of course you can't forget adding in the market value of Tivo (Apple TV) and why not also throw in a dash of Logitech (those Apple mice rock!)...

No, it wasn't a joke - companies don't magically stop growing once they get to 100 billion. The market for computers, electronics and phones will be larger 5 or 10 years from now than it currently is, and Apple is poised to take a big chunk of that business.

Sony will be bigger also, but not as big as Apple.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by e1618978

No, it wasn't a joke - companies don't magically stop growing once they get to 100 billion. The market 5 years for computers, electronics and phones will be larger 5 or 10 years from now than it currently is, and Apple is poised to take a big chunk of that business.

Sony will be bigger also, but not as big as Apple.

Yikes. I would counter that if it's not magic that stops them from growing at 100 billion, I do wonder what it is, because history shows that it's *something* (100 billion is of course arbitrary, the number is somewhere up there though, just look at the top 10 list of big companies and see if you find one that resembles Apple)

OK, well good luck. Hopefully you'll be right. Can I ask what your Apple stock holdings are, with a view of the future like that?

My Apple stock accounts for just under 10% of my total equity holdings, and that's getting very high for me. Can I also ask what your experience was in the bubble burst of 2000? Mine involved seeing my portfolio decline about 75% over 3 years while I repeatedly told myself that the companies I owned were leaders in huge and growing industries, that they couldn't possibly be overpriced. I have tried to learn from those mistakes.

[e1618978]

Originally Posted by cameronj

Yikes.

OK, well good luck. Hopefully you'll be right. Can I ask what your Apple stock holdings are, with a view of the future like that?

My Apple stock accounts for just under 10% of my total equity holdings, and that's getting very high for me. Can I also ask what your experience was in the bubble burst of 2000? Mine involved seeing my portfolio decline about 75% over 3 years while I repeatedly told myself that the companies I owned were leaders in huge and growing industries, that they couldn't possibly be overpriced. I have tried to learn from those mistakes.

I like to think that I have a pretty realistic view of market valuations - when Nortel was at $70 I told my friends that it was worth $5 and they laughed at me, and later stopped laughing as it dropped from $87 to 47 cents. I did lose quite a bit of money around that time (I think) - but it wasn't in internet stocks, it was with a company called Allied Products - and I lost money because they lied about their finances. Mostly I was trying to pay off a large business debt, which saved me from any market involvement.

I have my whole IRA in Apple stock, but that is 2% of my net worth.

Apple earnings growth is really good (P/E = 44, earnings growth 56%), and they have a low market share in everything except iPods (iTMS has high market share for online downloads, but they will take over most of the whole music industry, so I see iTMS as low market share inside the music industry rather than high share of downloads) so that growth has plenty of room to continue. I really think that the iPhone is still not priced in yet, and neither is the huge movie rental business that appleTV will turn into. Plus, apple will soon give us an earnings report, and I am guessing that they will report about 15 billion in cash - so only 105 billion in valuation (not 120) needs to be justified by earnings.

I am not selling my apple stock any time soon.

[AISI]

Originally Posted by e1618978

If Apple reaches its true potential, it will have the market cap of Sony (in 2000, at its peak) + Dell + Microsoft = $500 billion ($560/share). The computer market quadruples, and Apple takes 25% of it (= the whole current market). IMHO of course...

All this seems totally unrealistic, take a look at IDC's latest figures.

If the growth continues at the current pace (WW ~10%, US ~5%) the PC market won't quadruple anytime soon. Worldwide PC shipments will double in 7 years, PC sales in the U.S. will double in 15 years. Notebook sales are growing faster (WW and U.S. ~20%), in both cases notebook shipments will quadruple in 8 years.

We can sorta expect the WW market to double by 2014, if Mac sales keep growing steadily (25% YOY) over the next 7 years, Apple will take 6.74 percent of the worldwide market (33.7 million units out of 500.24 million) and 18.8 percent in the U.S. (18.5 million units out of 98.5 million).

[e1618978]

Originally Posted by AISI

All this seems totally unrealistic, take a look at IDC's latest figures.

If the growth continues at the current pace (WW ~10%, US ~5%) the PC market won't quadruple anytime soon. Worldwide PC shipments will double in 7 years, PC sales in the U.S. will double in 15 years. Notebook sales are growing faster (WW and U.S. ~20%), in both cases notebook shipments will quadruple in 8 years.

We can sorta expect the WW market to double by 2014, if Mac sales keep growing steadily (25% YOY) over the next 7 years, Apple will take 6.74 percent of the worldwide market (33.7 million units out of 500.24 million) and 18.8 percent in the U.S. (18.5 million units out of 98.5 million).

1. I think that worldwide computer usage is going to ramp faster than that - the 3rd world is getting richer at a much faster pace than it has in the past. China for example, has millions of people who are just now getting rich enough for luxury goods.

2. I think that Apple's market share will not grow at 25%, but will accelerate due to the crappyness of Vista and the halo effect.

[AISI]

Sorry but I'll take IDC's words over yours. And I don't see Apple selling tons of computers in China or in India just yet. First, they need to broaden the number of distribution points in Western Europe and increase sales in Japan, two well-established markets. In the previous post, Mac shipments are increasing by 25 percent a year, not Apple's market share. In this model market share gains are already accelerating over time (from 0.3 WW market share point in 2007 to 0.8 in 2014, and from 0.8 point of U.S. market share in 2007 to 3 full points gained in 2014).

[ericblr]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

You have to wonder when Apple will unleash some enterprise database management solutions. They are hardly inexperienced given their little set up, aka iTunes. Or is someone going to ruin my day and tell me that all runs on PCs using MS File?

Have you checked out http://www.sybase.com/partner/mac.

I dont know much about that kind of software but I just typed "enterprise database management solutions for mac" into google. and the above website came up.