Firm sets whopping $205 price target on Apple shares

[AppleInsider]

Piper Jaffray on Friday hiked its price target on shares of consumer electronics maker Apple Inc. to $205, explaining that a newly developed model for booked iPhone revenues reveals substantial upside to his 2009 calendar year earnings estimates.

"In 12 months, shares of Apple will be trading on calendar year 2009 (CY09) numbers and therefore we are using CY09 numbers to set our 12 month price target," analyst Gene Munster told clients. "While it is early to be using '09 numbers, we believe that as '09 comes into focus, investors will start to put numbers around Apple's booked revenue metric."

Munster's published CY09 per-share earnings estimate currently sits at $4.82, but the inclusion of both the booked revenue methodology and ATT revenue share would bump that guesstimate to $7.31 per share, he said.

"Applying a 28x multiple on $7.31 leads to a $205 price target," the analyst wrote. "Our target multiple of 28x is in line with the three-year average price/earnings multiple based on two-year forward earnings-per-share."

Munster emphasized that his revised target is based on Apple's ability to sell 45 million iPhone units in 2009 but has little to do with iPhone sales in 2007 and 2008.

"One thing we learned with the iPod is that when a device is game-changing, the demand will come," he advised clients. "However, it is difficult to predict the inflection point. For example, in December 2004, Street expectations for iPod ran wild with investors anticipating 8 million iPods, but Apple only sold 4.6 million. It was feared at the time that the iPod would never go mainstream."

The analyst added that the value of Apple shares 12 months from now will largely dependent on whether the Street believes the company can sell 45 million iPhones in 2009 for an average price of $330.

"Conversations with investors over the past month suggest awareness of potential for iPhone units is high, but awareness of potential resulting impact to earnings is low," he wrote. "If Apple can sell 45 million units in CY09, the earnings power and historical multiple ranges suggest our price target is reasonable."

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[MauiMac]

"xplaining that a newly developed model for booked iPhone revenues reveals substantial upside to his 2009 calendar year earnings estimates."


...or maybe he just wants to push the price of AAPL up so he can make some $$$...

[melgross]

Originally Posted by MauiMac

"xplaining that a newly developed model for booked iPhone revenues reveals substantial upside to his 2009 calendar year earnings estimates."


...or maybe he just wants to push the price of AAPL up so he can make some $$$...

No.

[SpamSandwich]

What's their game here? Obvious... pump and dump.

[backtomac]

45 million iPhones in 09 seems very optimistic.

I can't see it happening without 1 or 2 more iPhone models.

Still Munster is a respected Apple analyst.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

What's their game here? Obvious... pump and dump.

Ah, I love the unfounded cynicism.

[tink]

pass the dutchie left hand side

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by melgross

Ah, I love the unfounded cynicism.

Hey, I'd love to believe Apple hits this $205 target, but seriously... are you looking at the same growth I am?

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by tink

pass the dutchie left hand side

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Hey, I'd love to believe Apple hits this $205 target, but seriously... are you looking at the same growth I am?

Do you mean the one on your arm? J/K.

I'm a bit on the fence about this one, but I think Apple's stock price grew more than that difference the first half of this year. Whether it will continue that far is anyone's guess. I think it's probably a tad optimistic, though not impossible.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Hey, I'd love to believe Apple hits this $205 target, but seriously... are you looking at the same growth I am?

I don't know what you're looking at.

If Apple can hit $23.5 billion this year, which looks to be somewhat conservative, and hit $28 to 29 billion 2008 end of year, they could also hit around $35 billion 2009 end of year.

If profits keep up with sales growth, and the phone sells well, then I don't see that number as being out of the ballpark. It's less than 50% higher than today's number.

But, it also depends on the market not imploding.

[Ptrash]

Originally Posted by melgross

I don't know what you're looking at.

If Apple can hit $23.5 billion this year, which looks to be somewhat conservative, and hit $28 to 29 billion 2008 end of year, they could also hit around $35 billion 2009 end of year.

If profits keep up with sales growth, and the phone sells well, then I don't see that number as being out of the ballpark. It's less than 50% higher than today's number.

But, it also depends on the market not imploding.

And Mel Gross's pace of posting not imploding! You're approaching 10,000 posts. At a conservative 3 minutes per post--two minutes to read the topic and previous posts, 30 seconds to type a response and 30 seconds of processing time (computer AND human)--that's about 500 hours, about a quarter of a year. Shit, over 3 years that's almost a month vacation time per! I think AI should give an award for the 10k milestone--10 share of Appl, maybe? If it was legal, the logical donor would be Apple--look at all the free publicity they get!.

PS At the rate I type, read and think (and my G4 Ibook and TWC process!), it'd take me a hundred years to reach 10k posts. Props to you!

[ajhill]

Look back at the last five years of AAPL share prices. It has gone up 1,000% in the last five years.

So to believe that the stock could go up 50% in the next 2.5 years is not optimistic. If anything its pessimistic. That's why Apple shares are going up. Apple has grown 1,000 in the last five years based mostly on iPod revenue. iPhone revenue was not part of that impressive growth. Combine iPod, Iphone, iTunes Music Store, New OSX Leopard release, Christmas, AppleTV(Don't right this one off yet, it will come back strong when Apple releases the firmware update to enable HD Movie RENTALS!)

With all those catalysts a rise of $65 in share price in 2.5 years seems like a low estimate. We'll look back and wonder why we didn't buy more.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by ajhill

Look back at the last five years of AAPL share prices. It has gone up 1,000% in the last five years.

So to believe that the stock could go up 50% in the next 2.5 years is not optimistic. If anything its pessimistic. That's why Apple shares are going up. Apple has grown 1,000 in the last five years based mostly on iPod revenue. iPhone revenue was not part of that impressive growth. Combine iPod, Iphone, iTunes Music Store, New OSX Leopard release, Christmas, AppleTV(Don't right this one off yet, it will come back strong when Apple releases the firmware update to enable HD Movie RENTALS!)

With all those catalysts a rise of $65 in share price in 2.5 years seems like a low estimate. We'll look back and wonder why we didn't buy more.

The $205 price target given is for 12 months from now, not 2.5 years from now.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

The $205 price target given is for 12 months from now, not 2.5 years from now.

Exactly. Seems way too optimistic, although I remain hopeful.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by melgross

I don't know what you're looking at.

If Apple can hit $23.5 billion this year, which looks to be somewhat conservative, and hit $28 to 29 billion 2008 end of year, they could also hit around $35 billion 2009 end of year.

If profits keep up with sales growth, and the phone sells well, then I don't see that number as being out of the ballpark. It's less than 50% higher than today's number.

But, it also depends on the market not imploding.

BTW, thanks for the CLWR suggestion!

[tink]

Originally Posted by tink

pass the dutchie left hand side

Joking aside, Apple is truly firing on all cylinders and delivering. I actually do believe this is just the beginning of the fruit from the convergence model Apple has been working consistently on all these years.

[polar315]

Think about that company out of Waterloo, Ont

RIMM

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#char...urce=undefined

Killer technology for tech addicts....

[jasenj1]

Doesn't Apple sell computers? I think I read that somewhere or heard it on a podcast I was listening to on my iPod.

In all seriousness, I believe Apple continues to grow on the computer sales side faster than the market in general. If they can keep their refresh cycle in sync with the rest of the manufacturers, and keep the OS updates coming, they have a good outlook for growth in that sector, too.

This whole iPod and iPhone craze is still disconcerting to me. "Dog, meet tail. Now wag."

- Jasen.

[potterhead4]

Originally Posted by jasenj1

Doesn't Apple sell computers? I think I read that somewhere or heard it on a podcast I was listening to on my iPod.

In all seriousness, I believe Apple continues to grow on the computer sales side faster than the market in general. If they can keep their refresh cycle in sync with the rest of the manufacturers, and keep the OS updates coming, they have a good outlook for growth in that sector, too.

This whole iPod and iPhone craze is still disconcerting to me. "Dog, meet tail. Now wag."

- Jasen.

Good point - from what I can see, this earnings forcast is essentially based entirely on the iPhone...I wonder if Munster took the iPhone's coattail effect into account when he wrote his analysis. The outrageous amounts of media attention the iPhone received had to be partially responsible for the increase in Mac sales last quarter.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

BTW, thanks for the CLWR suggestion!

hehe I thanked him yesterday. Up about 45% in a little over a month.

Originally Posted by polar315

Think about that company out of Waterloo, Ont

RIMM

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#char...urce=undefined

Killer technology for tech addicts....

They are doing well. Some of which I can't understand. I know the iPhone will not replace the Blackberry but RIMM jumping 30% on June 29th and an average of 4% gains per day seems a little odd. Way to go Research In Motion!

[appleaddict]

Hi guys! I'm new to the appleinsider forum!

Anyways, just wanted to share my view ...

I have been an Apple fan since the early 90's ... and I am so happy to see that Apple is finally being seen and recognized for its forward thinking.

I strongly believe that Apple is the next Microsoft (should have been this way long ago).

My theory is simple, MS got lucky early ... got people used to its product and kept copying Apple's innovation to stay ahead ... Apple has finally broke through the pack and taken a huge lead ....

Thanks to iPod people I realizing that Apple products are not only easy to use but elegant ... so now people will slowly switch to Apple ... and they won't be disappointed.

Apple might even surpass $200 before Christmas ... mark my word!!

Peace!

[ajhill]

There are two things that will boost earnings next week, both are from a statement about SanDisk earnings:

1. (Lots of Flash NAND sold (rumored 1/4 of which by Apple alone) Here's the quote: "Also we believe an insatiable appetite from Apple is sapping NAND supply, resulting in market-share gains for SanDisk."

2. That's great but what's even better is the low pricing on that NAND memory. Here's the quote: "SanDisk said earnings were hurt by ongoing declines in the average selling prices of NAND flash-memory chips."

Net results will be a statement from Apple saying that they made a ton of money bases on great margins and rising sales. And this is the slow quarter!!!

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Hey, I'd love to believe Apple hits this $205 target, but seriously... are you looking at the same growth I am?

I am. I bought at 35, 60, 78 and 138. At what point do you have any faith? At 35 all I read was... "It will never do better"

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by appleaddict

Hi guys! I'm new to the appleinsider forum!

Anyways, just wanted to share my view ...

I have been an Apple fan since the early 90's ... and I am so happy to see that Apple is finally being seen and recognized for its forward thinking.

I strongly believe that Apple is the next Microsoft (should have been this way long ago).

My theory is simple, MS got lucky early ... got people used to its product and kept copying Apple's innovation to stay ahead ... Apple has finally broke through the pack and taken a huge lead ....

Thanks to iPod people I realizing that Apple products are not only easy to use but elegant ... so now people will slowly switch to Apple ... and they won't be disappointed.

Apple might even surpass $200 before Christmas ... mark my word!!

Peace!

Here's hoping

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

I am. I bought at 35, 60, 78 and 138. At what point do you have any faith? At 35 all I read was ..." It will never do better"

In that case it must be worth 205! And when it's at 205 and someone says "maybe this is not a good investment anymore" then you can say you bought at 35, 60, 78, 138 and 205, so 350 should be easy.

Right?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by appleaddict

Hi guys! I'm new to the appleinsider forum!

My theory is simple, MS got lucky early ...

Apple might even surpass $200 before Christmas ... mark my word!!

1) Welcome to AI forums.

2) MS got lucky and they wre smart enough to know that a well-known company liek IBM would be a smart move.

From Wikipedia about Gary Kildall's CP/M. IBM's first choice for an OS.

"IBM approached Digital Research in 1980, at Bill Gates's suggestion, to license a version of CP/M called CP/M-86 for its upcoming IBM PC. ... Before explaining the purpose of their visit they insisted that DRI accept a standard non-disclosure agreement that required it not to reveal anything about the meeting and allowed IBM unfettered use of any information that DRI might disclose. On the advice of DRI attorney Gerry Davis, Dorothy refused to sign the agreement without Gary's approval."

DOS was based on CP/M and MS didn't own it or had ever used it before agreeing to sell it to IBM. A bold move, IMO. They certainly seized the moment.

3) I can see Apple breaking the $200 barrier before the calender years ends.

[g5man]

Originally Posted by cameronj

In that case it must be worth 205! And when it's at 205 and someone says "maybe this is not a good investment anymore" then you can say you bought at 35, 60, 78, 138 and 205, so 350 should be easy.

Right?

You bet aapl will hit $450 by jan 09. And you don't even need to add iPHone revenue into the mix that much. If Apple keeps growing their computer base at 30% a year for the next 2 years, the sky is the limit.

[DaveGee]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

What's their game here? Obvious... pump and dump.

Piper Jaffray isn't a firm that would first come to mind when 'pump n dump' gets brought up.... but who knows....

Dave

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Ptrash

And Mel Gross's pace of posting not imploding! You're approaching 10,000 posts. At a conservative 3 minutes per post--two minutes to read the topic and previous posts, 30 seconds to type a response and 30 seconds of processing time (computer AND human)--that's about 500 hours, about a quarter of a year. Shit, over 3 years that's almost a month vacation time per! I think AI should give an award for the 10k milestone--10 share of Appl, maybe? If it was legal, the logical donor would be Apple--look at all the free publicity they get!.

PS At the rate I type, read and think (and my G4 Ibook and TWC process!), it'd take me a hundred years to reach 10k posts. Props to you!

Well thanks, I think.

But, you should go to ARs, there are posters there with over 50 thousand posts. I don't even have 2 thousand there.

[DaveGee]

Originally Posted by solipsism

1) Gary Kildall's CP/M. IBM's first choice for an OS.

Gary Kildall, what a sad story..... I read one history rehashing account that if it is accurate was VERY sad indeed... Funny thing is, even with google I can't seem to find that 'rehash' ANYWHERE and yea I'm wearing my tinfoil hat... but that's **REALLY** strange.


Dave

[melgross]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Exactly. Seems way too optimistic, although I remain hopeful.

Don't forget that Apple's stock has just gone from $51 to $143.75 in less than twelve months. It's true that it was at $86 first, and then dropped back down, but still...

I certainly don't see over $200 by the end of the 2008 financial year to be farfetched.

It all depends on performance, and expectations.

First, we'll see how it does on the 25th.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

BTW, thanks for the CLWR suggestion!

Sure. It's moving now. I has some vague feelings about a Sprint deal, but couldn't pin it down.

Too bad the market dropped so far today, or it could have ended at $34.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by polar315

Think about that company out of Waterloo, Ont

RIMM

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#char...urce=undefined

Killer technology for tech addicts....

While RIM looks good now, I think it is in long term trouble.

Several companies that offer professional services for mobile use are working with the iPhone with secure services. This is what RIM does. At least two also offer remote phone sync, also a RIM service.

With Job's statement that we will see more Exchange support for the iPhone "soon", I don't think that RIM will remain with much of an advantage.

In addition, RIM has been branching out into the consumer market with the Pearl, and other similar models.

These don't have an alphanumeric keyboard. Some other models have small versions. None are easy to type on.

I've been reading reviews where people are shedding their Pearls for iPhones. this will slow, and possibly stop, RIM's expansion out of the corporate space.

with the services the iPhone is now already getting, is there any doubt that it will expand into the corporate space?

Not for me.

RIM will have to find more of a way to fight this than they have, in offering some more API's.

Long run—RIM is in trouble (not to mention Windows Mobile, and Palm (OOps! I just did mention them.)).

[melgross]

Originally Posted by appleaddict

Hi guys! I'm new to the appleinsider forum!

Anyways, just wanted to share my view ...

I have been an Apple fan since the early 90's ... and I am so happy to see that Apple is finally being seen and recognized for its forward thinking.

I strongly believe that Apple is the next Microsoft (should have been this way long ago).

My theory is simple, MS got lucky early ... got people used to its product and kept copying Apple's innovation to stay ahead ... Apple has finally broke through the pack and taken a huge lead ....

Thanks to iPod people I realizing that Apple products are not only easy to use but elegant ... so now people will slowly switch to Apple ... and they won't be disappointed.

Apple might even surpass $200 before Christmas ... mark my word!!

Peace!

Well, hello.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by DaveGee

Gary Kildall, what a sad story..... I read one history rehashing account that if it is accurate was VERY sad indeed... Funny thing is, even with google I can't seem to find that 'rehash' ANYWHERE and yea I'm wearing my tinfoil hat... but that's **REALLY** strange.


Dave

The story is that Kildall liked his leasure. He had a boat. He was on it when IBM wanted to meet. He didn't want to leave his boat and go to a meet.

IBM turned to Gates and asked what to do. Gates said that they just happened to have an OS that IBM might like. They had bought it shortly before, for $50 thousand, from Seattle Computer. A CP/M derivative, that became DOS.

[DaveGee]

Originally Posted by melgross

The story is that Kildall liked his leasure. He had a boat. He was on it when IBM wanted to meet. He didn't want to leave his boat and go to a meet.

IBM turned to Gates and asked what to do. Gates said that they just happened to have an OS that IBM might like. They had bought it shortly before, for $50 thousand, from Seattle Computer. A CP/M derivative, that became DOS.

Ummm when you said boat.... I think you were **really** thinking **plane**... but yea thats the gist of it... the specific story that I'd read was very detailed and even went into post IBM/MS deals and further developed into multimedia ideas that Kildall had that purportedly Gates stole....

[elroth]

Originally Posted by DaveGee

the specific story that I'd read was very detailed and even went into post IBM/MS deals and further developed into multimedia ideas that Kildall had that purportedly Gates stole....

How dare you imply that Microsoft stole ideas from someone else - shame on you for even thinking such a thing.

[nvidia2008]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

I am. I bought at 35, 60, 78 and 138. At what point do you have any faith? At 35 all I read was... "It will never do better"

This is a brilliant strategy for Apple shares. Well done mate. ...You have several "backup" or "deprecate" layers where you can shed your shares while still maintaining high profitability due to previously bought shares. At the same time you are poised to capture $5, $10, $20, etc. gains as the share price progresses.

[backtomac]

Originally Posted by melgross

Don't forget that Apple's stock has just gone from $51 to $143.75 in less than twelve months. It's true that it was at $86 first, and then dropped back down, but still...

I certainly don't see over $200 by the end of the 2008 financial year to be farfetched.

It all depends on performance, and expectations.

First, we'll see how it does on the 25th.

I'm worried about the 25th. Did you see the smack down google got for missing the numbers?

You're dead on about the expectations part. What is the street looking for inside the numbers? Do they want to see 1 million iPhones sold since it's intro? Are they going to look at Mac sales and scrutinize those? Even if Apple meets or beats the estimates any weakness in specific products such as iPod sales, Mac sales or iPhone sales could cause a big sell off. It's hard to predict what part of the number 'the street' will place the greatest importance.

Of course that could then be a buying opportunity.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by backtomac

I'm worried about the 25th. Did you see the smack down google got for missing the numbers?

You're dead on about the expectations part. What is the street looking for inside the numbers? Do they want to see 1 million iPhones sold since it's intro? Are they going to look at Mac sales and scrutinize those? Even if Apple meets or beats the estimates any weakness in specific products such as iPod sales, Mac sales or iPhone sales could cause a big sell off. It's hard to predict what part of the number 'the street' will place the greatest importance.

Of course that could then be a buying opportunity.

They'll look at all of that. then they will look at what Apple does and doesn't say in the conference call. Any hints, and depreciation.

I think that weakness in iPod sales is going to be difficult to analyze this time around, unless sales are either way above, or below expectations. Sales have drifted down the last few months, though are still well above last years numbers. I expected this after Jobs announced the iPhone in January. I'm sure many others did. Jobs talk of cannibalization shows that Apple expects it as well.

Will they beat the numbers? I think they will. Some analysts seem to be unsure of how many Macs were sold, giving numbers, but warning that the actual numbers may be higher.

The stock has moved up for a number of reasons. One is that there have been several companies with solutions to the lack of secure corporate email services for the iPhone. deep cuts into RIMs territory are seen.