Goldman: Apple prepping redesigned iMacs, full-screen iPods

[AppleInsider]

Apple Inc. is gearing up for several major product releases during the current quarter that should help drive earnings and higher share prices, including an overhaul to iMac and new full-screen iPods, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs.

"iPhone hype notwithstanding, with the heart of Apple’s product cycle about to begin, we want to stay with the stock," analyst David Bailey told clients in a research note Thursday. "In the September quarter, Apple will finish up a refresh of its entire Mac line-up, rounding it out with a redesigned iMac."

The analyst, who did not cite sources, said he also expects the company to launch a new family of iPods around the same time, which will pack significantly greater functionality at current price points,
"including the much-anticipated full screen video iPod."

Following Apple's earnings announcement and disclosure of initial iPhone sales figures on Wednesday, Bailey reduced his iPhone shipment forecast for the 2008 calendar year by 1 million units to 11 million units. However, he said Mac and iPod cycles still appear strong enough to generate higher volumes on their own.

"Stronger-than-expected retail traffic, a virtually complete revitalization in education, and the impact of Adobe’s CS3 in the commercial space should continue to drive better Mac sales and higher market share," the analyst wrote. "On the iPod side, we’ve changed our view about the level of cannibalization from iPhone based on early indications, particularly from the supply chain, about the coming video iPod which should be capable of driving an accelerated upgrade cycle."

Bailey also used Thursday's research note to increase his 2007 and 2008 calendar year per-share earnings estimates on the Mac maker to $3.71 and $4.30 from $3.58 and $4.30, respectively. However, the analyst said he found Apple's after-hours stock jump on Wednesday to be "somewhat perplexing" and would not be surprised to see the shares back off in the near term.

"That said, we do not expect our current earnings increase to be the last one, with even our current numbers yielding a new 12-month target price of $165 rolling the current multiple over to 2008 earnings," he wrote.

Bailey maintained his Buy rating on shares of Apple.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[psychodoughboy]

Well, AppleInsider -> Analysts -> AppleInsider.

[Commodus]

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought this! Many of these companies will literally wait until AI makes a definitive claim before they put out a report.

[trevorlsciact]

Haha, yepp this is how it works.

[Restalot]

Also from the pointing out the obvious news service... Earth = Round.

[age234]

Does it really make sense to release all this right at the end of the education season? All the students who were going the Mac + iPod route will have done so by the timeframe these guys are saying (I'm one of them)

[reallynotnick]

What? full screen, I wanted widescreen!

(yes I do know what they mean)

[nascarnate326]

God I hope the new iMac has alot of iMac G4 in it. I cant wait to dump my MacBook and get one of these.

[Denton]

Originally Posted by age234

Does it really make sense to release all this right at the end of the education season? All the students who were going the Mac + iPod route will have done so by the timeframe these guys are saying (I'm one of them)

Yes, it does make sense. Just as student shoppers begin to wane, Apple releases new computers and iPods to keep people coming into their stores. Apple has decided that the way to get students to buy their computers is to give them last year's iPod for free. So long as students keep buying into this marketing strategy, Apple won't care about whether students have all just bought last year's computer. It drives sales, so it works for Apple.

[SpamSandwich]

Doesn't it feel good to be the definitive source (AI), influencing billions of dollars of stock activity and decisions made with these 'analysts'.

[ecking]

I wish the new ipods dropped in a couple of weeks and just weren't eligible for the student thing, because I could really use a new ipod right now but I don't wanna buy what will obviously be outdated in 2 months.

[Denton]

Originally Posted by ecking

I wish the new ipods dropped in a couple of weeks and just weren't eligible for the student thing, because I could really use a new ipod right now but I don't wanna buy what will obviously be outdated in 2 months.

That is essentially what has happened the past couple of years. Only thing is that Apple released the new iPods about a week before the end of the student promotion. So we'll probably have to wait another seven weeks for iPods.

[BigMcLargehuge]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Apple Inc. is gearing up for several major product releases during the current quarter that should help drive earnings and higher share prices, including an overhaul to iMac and new full-screen iPods, according to investment bank Goldman Sachs.

How much useful information is there in that opening sentence? NONE! They would have been just as informative had they said "Apple Inc. is gearing ip for several majopr product releases because they are a company and that's what companies do, most of the time, we think, I guess."

"iPhone hype notwithstanding, with the heart of Apple’s product cycle about to begin, we want to stay with the stock," analyst David Bailey told clients in a research note Thursday. "In the September quarter, Apple will finish up a refresh of its entire Mac line-up, rounding it out with a redesigned iMac."

The analyst, who did not cite sources, said he also expects the company to launch a new family of iPods around the same time, which will pack significantly greater functionality at current price points, "including the much-anticipated full screen video iPod."

Is this Magic 8-Ballery of the highest order? "All signs point to yes!" No wonder "the analyst" didn't cite sources... most places frown if you say "In a recent question and answer session with my own ass..."

Following Apple's earnings announcement and disclosure of initial iPhone sales figures on Wednesday, Bailey reduced his iPhone shipment forecast for the 2008 calendar year by 1 million units to 11 million units. However, he said Mac and iPod cycles still appear strong enough to generate higher volumes on their own.

So that in 11 months they can revise their estimate to more closely match actual sales figures.

"Stronger-than-expected retail traffic, a virtually complete revitalization in education, and the impact of Adobe’s CS3 in the commercial space should continue to drive better Mac sales and higher market share," the analyst wrote. "On the iPod side, we’ve changed our view about the level of cannibalization from iPhone based on early indications, particularly from the supply chain, about the coming video iPod which should be capable of driving an accelerated upgrade cycle."

Nice that he identified the supply chain... is it manufactuing supply chain? Retail supply chain? Made it up as I went along supply chain?

Guess which one I think it is...

Bailey also used Thursday's research note to increase his 2007 and 2008 calendar year per-share earnings estimates on the Mac maker to $3.71 and $4.30 from $3.58 and $4.30, respectively. However, the analyst said he found Apple's after-hours stock jump on Wednesday to be "somewhat perplexing" and would not be surprised to see the shares back off in the near term.

a .13 change? Yet he's baffled by the maxim "what goes up must come down"?

"That said, we do not expect our current earnings increase to be the last one, with even our current numbers yielding a new 12-month target price of $165 rolling the current multiple over to 2008 earnings," he wrote.

Yeah, buy high...

Bailey maintained his Buy rating on shares of Apple.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

Commissions are hard to come by if no one sells or buys stock.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by age234

Does it really make sense to release all this right at the end of the education season? All the students who were going the Mac + iPod route will have done so by the timeframe these guys are saying (I'm one of them)

The education buying season started recently, and goes through August, even into september.

[melgross]

Has AI made an error here?

Did he estimate that 2008 earnings would go up from 4.30 to 4.30?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by age234

Does it really make sense to release all this right at the end of the education season? All the students who were going the Mac + iPod route will have done so by the timeframe these guys are saying (I'm one of them)

Adding to what Denton said, Apple would be remiss to offer new items with a student discounts which can garnish a free $200 rebate when buying a Mac and iPod on top of your student discount.

With so many products to release this holiday season Apple will probably release some of these in Aug and Sept before the Student ends. But these have historically been ineligible for the BAck To School offer.

Originally Posted by nascarnate326

God I hope the new iMac has alot of iMac G4 in it. I cant wait to dump my MacBook and get one of these.

What do you mean by "G4" in it. I really don't get it.

[superlatic_uk]

so basically hes saying new imacs, mac pros, macbooks, mini or mini replacement and ipods between now and sept 31st.

reading between the lines though it sounded like the imacs will be the last to be updated, which if this is the case, very much doubt they will be ready for the 7th.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by superlatic_uk

so basically hes saying new imacs, mac pros, macbooks, mini or mini replacement and ipods between now and sept 31st.

reading between the lines though it sounded like the imacs will be the last to be updated, which if this is the case, very much doubt they will be ready for the 7th.

I'd say the opposite. New iPods need to come out for the holiday season, but these need to be pushed back as far as possible to give the iPhone more breathing room. I expect the new iPods to be release around Spet. 16th, when the Back To School special ends.

I think October would be better but Leopard will have the October time slot.

I am expecting these new Macs in August. This gives two to three months of new Macs with Tiger. The longer the distance between this new HW and SW the less likely it will make people feel gypped (but we know this will happen anyway).

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by solipsism

What do you mean by "G4" in it. I really don't get it.

I think what was meant was styled or arranged similarly to the G4 model, with a heavy base and a light screen on a little boom.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I'd say the opposite. New iPods need to come out for the holiday season, but these need to be pushed back as far as possible to give the iPhone more breathing room. I expect the new iPods to be release around Spet. 16th, when the Back To School special ends.

That may be pretty accurate. I think mid-Sept. was when they've done several of their iPod updates.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

I think styled like the G4 model, with a heavy base and a light screen on a little boom.

Those days is over.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by melgross

Those days is over.

That may well be, but is there any particular reason why you think that?

[donebylee]

Originally Posted by superlatic_uk

so basically hes saying new imacs, mac pros, macbooks, mini or mini replacement and ipods between now and sept 31st.

reading between the lines though it sounded like the imacs will be the last to be updated, which if this is the case, very much doubt they will be ready for the 7th.

This sounds like too much in too little time. Why would Apple put all of its apples into one barrell when they don't have to?

Originally Posted by solipsism

I'd say the opposite. New iPods need to come out for the holiday season, but these need to be pushed back as far as possible to give the iPhone more breathing room. I expect the new iPods to be release around Spet. 16th, when the Back To School special ends.

I think October would be better but Leopard will have the October time slot.

I am expecting these new Macs in August. This gives two to three months of new Macs with Tiger. The longer the distance between this new HW and SW the less likely it will make people feel gypped (but we know this will happen anyway).

I doubt we will see new Mac Pros anytime soon. No Penryn MBs and Xeons, no new Mac Pros. I haven't seen anything that indicated that Intel is about to roll these out in the near future.

And I also wouldn't expect new iPods until later this year. I think Apple is getting more savvy about when they release products and making the most of all the fanfare. New iPods released in the holiday buying season would viturally guarantee Apple an outstanding quarter.

New iMacs and maybe an updated Macbook would easily cover this quarter along with continuing sales of the iPhone.

Start the October quarter out by releasing Leopard on Halloween (dress up like a Leopard and get to look like a looney in line at your local Apple Store). And end the quarter with a flurry of iPod sales as everyone buys the "must-have" present of the season.

And then a new Mac Pro for MacWorld. Maybe new Cinema Displays too.

[BlackSummerNight]

I just saw a report on Macrumors saying the iPods woudn't be fullscreen.

[donebylee]

Originally Posted by donebylee

...No Penryn MBs and Xeons, no new Mac Pros. I haven't seen anything that indicated that Intel is about to roll these out in the near future....

Mmmmk, just found this over at MacNN. If true then maybe we will see new Mac Pros this quarter.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

That may well be, but is there any particular reason why you think that?

Apple has abandoned that format. It was VERY unpopular in schools, which are the biggest iMac buying segment. It was also unpopular in business, which, believe it or not, is also a big segment of the iMac buying population.

The current designs are much more popular in both of those segments. Together they probably, from what I see, comprise at least half of iMac sales.

It was also more expensive to manufacture.

Apple has gone to the monitor format for good reason, I think. It will be some time until they find a better solution.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by donebylee

I doubt we will see new Mac Pros anytime soon. No Penryn MBs and Xeons, no new Mac Pros. I haven't seen anything that indicated that Intel is about to roll these out in the near future.

While I'm not sure about new Mac Pros soon either, we may see Penyrn for mobile, and Wolfdale (2 core), and Kentsfield (4 core) for the desktop sooner than you might think.

Intel has already, ahead of schedule, given out sample quantities of those chips to OEM's. I would imagine that includes Apple.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by melgross

Apple has abandoned that format. It was VERY unpopular in schools, which are the biggest iMac buying segment. It was also unpopular in business, which, believe it or not, is also a big segment of the iMac buying population.

The current designs are much more popular in both of those segments. Together they probably, from what I see, comprise at least half of iMac sales.

It was also more expensive to manufacture.

Apple has gone to the monitor format for good reason, I think. It will be some time until they find a better solution.

The construction of the new iMacs is also more durable and has less moving parts. Though I do miss my iMac with articulating arm. Those were so damn cool.

[donebylee]

Originally Posted by melgross

While I'm not sure about new Mac Pros soon either, we may see Penyrn for mobile, and Wolfdale (2 core), and Kentsfield (4 core) for the desktop sooner than you might think.

Intel has already, ahead of schedule, given out sample quantities of those chips to OEM's. I would imagine that includes Apple.

Hmmm, Penryn iMacs anyone???

[melgross]

Originally Posted by donebylee

Mmmmk, just found this over at MacNN. If true then maybe we will see new Mac Pros this quarter.

I don't see how this would affect the Mac Pro.

Apple is not likely to move to 4 chips on the desktop.

I'm also skeptical about seeing 4 chips in the small servers Apple has today.

Besides, these are 65nm chips, and will soon become obsolete.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by donebylee

Hmmm, Penryn iMacs anyone???

No doubt whatsoever.

[jonessodarally]

I assume similar concepts have been thrown out there countless times, but since i havent seen any mockups of one yet, i thought i'd contribute my 10 minutes. obviously the interface would be revamped but this is the best i could do with a quick google search for nano and shuffle to put it together.

[Marvin]

Originally Posted by Restalot

Also from the pointing out the obvious news service... Earth = Round.

Whoa, whoa, whoa I think I'll need to get an overpaid analyst to check that before I believe it.

This game can't be this easy I think I'll give it a go. Ok I'm going to make an analysis, hold onto your hats:

In the coming months, Apple is expected to roll out new iMacs, new keyboards and new ipods.

BOOM, now someone pay me.

What baffles me is how much work can they really be putting into reaching these empty conclusions to justify anything except a kick up the arse?

And more to the point, why is AI reporting it like it means anything to us and not important stories like that Gears of War is coming to the Mac?

[lantzn]

Originally Posted by solipsism

What do you mean by "G4" in it. I really don't get it.

Thanks for asking I'm glad I'm not the only one who doesn't get it.

[lantzn]

Originally Posted by melgross

Apple has gone to the monitor format for good reason, I think. It will be some time until they find a better solution.

Apple has trimmed the iMac design down to almost nothing since the original iMac. It's hard to imagine they could do anything else to what is basically a monitor now, accept keep making the components smaller and lighter. I've heard people miss the capability of adjusting the monitors height, like you could with the "arm" style model. Maybe they will add that feature to the stand of the new iMac.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by lantzn

Apple has trimmed the iMac design down to almost nothing since the original iMac. It's hard to imagine they could do anything else to what is basically a monitor now, accept keep making the components smaller and lighter. I've heard people miss the capability of adjusting the monitors height, like you could with the "arm" style model. Maybe they will add that feature to the stand of the new iMac.

Yes. Apple has simplified this design as much as possible. The ultimate in Bauhaus design philosophy of "design follows function."

Is it perfect ? No.

But, as you say, a slight improvement here and there. Once you have the best general design concept, all that remains is to refine it. So, unless Apple thinks that sales are going down, or are not improving enough, they likely won't find a reason to change it. I hope they do make incremental improvements, but keep it.

[melgross]

One thing I would like to see is a multi-touch screen. I've used touch screens, and they offer many advantages.

There are those here who dislike the very thought. But, then, there are those who hated the concept of the mouse, and drop down menus as well.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by jonessodarally

I like the look of that, but two things concern me. Battery life, and a shuffle without tactile feedback wouldn't really be a good thing IMO.

[Neil Anderson]

The iMac's non-adjustable height has incorporated one less thing to go wrong. The iMac's screen tilts, so there is some adjustment possible.

[Haggar]

I would like to see the iMac hardware designers locked in the repair center and forced to repair all iMacs themselves.