Fourth quarter Apple Mac and iPhone sales ahead of expectations

[AppleInsider]

Apple Inc. appears headed for yet another rosy fiscal fourth quarter, with sales of both Macs and its new iPhone handset tracking ahead of expectations, an American Technology Research analyst said Wednesday.

Advising clients in a research note, analyst Shaw Wu cited sources who indicate that the Cupertino-based firm's Mac business continues to see strength driven by back-to-school buying and share gains from Windows PC switchers.

In particular, Wu said, demand for the company's high-end MacBook Pros and new aluminum iMacs are robust, causing longer than normal lead times (7-10 days for MacBook Pros and 3-7 days for iMacs) on its online store.

"As expected, the entry-level iMac at $1199 is doing well due to its great value and attractive price point," the analyst wrote, "but what surprises us is the high-end $1799 model is also doing well with 'prosumer' customers attracted to its large 24-inch widescreen LCD that offers full HD (1920x1200) capability."

Meanwhile, there is no evidence that consumers are pausing their Mac sales in anticipation of receiving bundles copies of Mac OS X Leopard in the October timeframe, he said.

Wu has been modeling Apple to sell 1.95 million Mac systems during the current quarter ending September 29th, which would represent 21 percent growth in its computer business. However, his latest round of checks have lead him to believe that this estimate will "likely" prove conservative.

As a result, Wu appears to be joining fellow analysts at RBC Capital Markets, who indicated earlier this month that the company was flirting with the prospect of shipping 2 million Mac systems during the quarter -- a milestone it has never achieved in its 30-year history.

In his not to clients Wednesday, the American Technology Research analyst also took issue with reports that iPhone interest had waned in recent weeks, saying sales of the handset remain so strong that Apple will likely exceed its own guidance for unit sales of the device.

"We remain comfortable with our forecast of 770,000 units, above Apple's goal/plan/guidance of 730,000," he wrote. "Our sources indicate that sales are more evenly distributed between Apple and AT&T stores, whereas in the beginning there was a mix towards Apple stores. This could have a minor negative bias on 'bounty' revenue."

Wu maintained his Buy rating and $185 price target on shares of Apple, explaining that the company's strong brand loyalty, integrated product matrix, and proprietary interface technologies present a strong competitive advantage over would-be rivals.

Shares of Apple were trading up 3.48 percent (or $4.44) to $132 in early morning trading on the Nasdaq stock market, helped primarily by a report late Tuesday that said the company had finalized plans with carriers for the European launch of iPhone.

[amac4me]

I love it ... "share gains from Windows PC switchers"

[Coolie]

Meanwhile, there is no evidence that consumers are pausing their Mac sales in anticipation of receiving bundled copies of Mac OS X Leopard in the October timeframe, he said.

I never understood why anyone would put off a purchase of a Mac because they were waiting for Leopard. Tiger is mature, stable, and well-supported. I bought my new iMac knowing that I'd probably wait six months to a year before moving to the next generation Mac OS. For anyone doing anything mission-critical on a Macintosh, I would wait until 10.5.1 was released before switching.

[davebarnes]

Originally Posted by Coolie

I never understood why anyone would put off a purchase of a Mac because they were waiting for Leopard.

I don't either.
OK, I understand if Leopard is coming out next week and you don't really need a new computer, then wait.
But, why wait longer than that.
1. You really don't want to upgrade an existing machine with Leopard on announcement day. Do you? Not me. Great fear of not working.
2. Leopard is not expensive. $199 for the family pack works out to $40/machine in my house. This is peanuts compared to how much Adobe is charging me.

,dave

P.S. Took delivery of my new shiny 2.8GHz iMac yesterday. Very shiny. Very fast.

[Marc G]

I got my 2.8 yesterday as well. So far, fantastic.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by Coolie

For anyone doing anything mission-critical on a Macintosh, I would wait until 10.5.1 was released before switching.

So in other words, you are saying the reverse is true. That people may postpone their purchase because Leopard is too new?

Who does anything mission critical on a Mac?

[MacSuperiority]

Originally Posted by Coolie

I never understood why anyone would put off a purchase of a Mac because they were waiting for Leopard.

Uh... To save 140 bucks. Contrary to popular belief, not everyone can just waste this kind of money.

[mgkwho]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

In his not to clients Wednesday, the American Technology Research analyst also took issue with reports that iPhone interest had waned in recent weeks, saying sales of the handset remain so strong that Apple will likely exceed its own guidance for unit sales of the device.

I think you mean "note."

Isn't it funny how Wu changed his differences in estimates the weekend of June 29 to now? It just goes to show you, until an official company announcement is made, he's just basing his calculations on tiny surveys and existing Apple online store "data." What crap.

-=|Mgkwho

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by Coolie

I never understood why anyone would put off a purchase of a Mac because they were waiting for Leopard. Tiger is mature, stable, and well-supported. I bought my new iMac knowing that I'd probably wait six months to a year before moving to the next generation Mac OS. For anyone doing anything mission-critical on a Macintosh, I would wait until 10.5.1 was released before switching.

To put it simply, it's cheaper to get it for free. Even if I wanted to run 10.4, I already have install disks for it around so I could just put it on. Or even wait for 10.5.1 to buy a new machine.

Personally, I need the extended ram of 64 bit and plan on trying it out as soon as the OS and apps are available.

[David Stevenson]

Originally Posted by Coolie

I never understood why anyone would put off a purchase of a Mac because they were waiting for Leopard.

I'm just the opposite. I bought my 12" Powerbook because of the looming release of Tiger. I didn't want a new OS on my laptop. I'm quite willing to wait 6-12 months after release for Leopard to mature before I buy my next laptop.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Coolie

I never understood why anyone would put off a purchase of a Mac because they were waiting for Leopard. Tiger is mature, stable, and well-supported. I bought my new iMac knowing that I'd probably wait six months to a year before moving to the next generation Mac OS. For anyone doing anything mission-critical on a Macintosh, I would wait until 10.5.1 was released before switching.

This will happen shortly before Leopard is released, which is natural.

But, the release is still too far into the future to affect the buying of machines that people need now, or for school late August (many colleges have already started the new term), or early September.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by mstone

So in other words, you are saying the reverse is true. That people may postpone their purchase because Leopard is too new?

Who does anything mission critical on a Mac?

Quite a few. Assuming that you know what "mission critical" means.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by mgkwho

I think you mean "note."

Isn't it funny how Wu changed his differences in estimates the weekend of June 29 to now? It just goes to show you, until an official company announcement is made, he's just basing his calculations on tiny surveys and existing Apple online store "data." What crap.

-=|Mgkwho

It's not funny at all. Sales have been rising. They are higher now than they were then, hence the increase in estimate.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by melgross

Quite a few. Assuming that you know what "mission critical" means.

I guess getting my customer's junk mail designed and printed could be considered mission-critical. I tend to think of banking, defense, aircraft control as the sorts of things that are mission critical, none using Macs to my knowledge.

What's your definition of mission-critical?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by mstone

I guess getting my customer's junk mail designed and printed could be considered mission-critical. I tend to think of banking, defense, aircraft control as the sorts of things that are mission critical, none using Macs to my knowledge.

What's your definition of mission-critical?

Mission critical means anything that you do that your business needs to be done on time and properly, or your business suffers.

Interestingly, certain areas that you mentioned, such as defense, aircraft control, as well as medical and nuclear power stations, which you didn't mention, are areas that Apple's, and MS's statements particularly note are NOT areas for which their OS's are recommended.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by melgross

Interestingly, certain areas that you mentioned, such as defense, aircraft control, as well as medical and nuclear power stations, which you didn't mention, are areas that Apple's, and MS's statements particularly note are NOT areas for which their OS's are recommended.

Yes, I've read that as well. So that is why most of those industries either ignore the warning or opt for some hardened Solaris solution. I think the International Space Station is using i386 state-of-the-art stuff probably running a Russian version of DOS.

Whatever, Macs are made for fun stuff like web design, video editing and DTP. Always were, always will be. Despite your rather broad definition of mission-critical, nobody is gonna die if their iTunes pauses unexpectedly.

[grayum]

Originally Posted by mstone

Who does anything mission critical on a Mac?

err, erm, NASA?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by mstone

Yes, I've read that as well. So that is why most of those industries either ignore the warning or opt for some hardened Solaris solution. I think the International Space Station is using i386 state-of-the-art stuff probably running a Russian version of DOS.

Whatever, Macs are made for fun stuff like web design, video editing and DTP. Always were, always will be. Despite your rather broad definition of mission-critical, nobody is gonna die if their iTunes pauses unexpectedly.

No, but when my clients needed their work for broadcast in two hours, it better damn needed to be finished, and delivered. That's mission critical.

[grayum]

Originally Posted by mstone

Whatever, Macs are made for fun stuff like web design, video editing and DTP. Always were, always will be. Despite your rather broad definition of mission-critical, nobody is gonna die if their iTunes pauses unexpectedly.

Ah, creative industry work = fun! I do agree but as the last post says, there are many critical missions.....

[mstone]

Originally Posted by melgross

No, but when my clients needed their work for broadcast in two hours, it better damn needed to be finished, and delivered. That's mission critical.

You need better clients. I've turned clients away when their projects quit being fun. When I got into this line of work it was because my Mac hobby was taking up so much of my time that I had to quit my real job at the architect office. I never looked back, and the commercial art industry has been very good indeed. But if it ain't fun, I don't do it.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by mstone

You need better clients. I've turned clients away when their projects quit being fun. When I got into this line of work it was because my Mac hobby was taking up so much of my time that I had to quit my real job at the architect office. I never looked back, and the commercial art industry has been very good indeed. But if it ain't fun, I don't do it.

You're not much of a business person, or very professional. My company did several million in business a year. That's why we were a commercial lab, not a " Girls Only Want To have Fun" lab.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by melgross

You're not much of a business person, or very professional. My company did several million in business a year. That's why we were a commercial lab, not a " Girls Only Want To have Fun" lab.

I'm sorry you have to work so hard for your money. Absolutely no worries here at the beach. By the way, how is New York this time of year? Or any time of year for that matter?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by mstone

I'm sorry you have to work so hard for your money. Absolutely no worries here at the beach. By the way, how is New York this time of year? Or any time of year for that matter?

I retired three years ago at 54 when we sold the company. I love New York, can't stand the beach, way too boring. I prefer having excellent season's seats to the Metropolitan opera.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by melgross

I retired three years ago at 54 when we sold the company. I love New York, can't stand the beach, way too boring. I prefer having excellent season's seats to the Metropolitan opera.

Rock on!

[Marc G]

Originally Posted by MacSuperiority

Uh... To save 140 bucks. Contrary to popular belief, not everyone can just waste this kind of money.

For me, the release of leopard is a non issue since I would have to get a family pack anyway due to having 3 Macs (4 at the moment) in my house. I got my new iMac now so that I would have it all set up and properly configured before school starts.

[Marc G]

Originally Posted by melgross

I retired three years ago at 54 when we sold the company. I love New York, can't stand the beach, way too boring. I prefer having excellent season's seats to the Metropolitan opera.

Always nice to find a fellow opera buff. My only regret about being in Boston is that getting to the Met is difficult to do more than once a year.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Marc G

Always nice to find a fellow opera buff. My only regret about being in Boston is that getting to the Met is difficult to do more than once a year.

I've had seasons tickets for 28 years now. My wife says that even if we stopped going, the seats are too good to give up.

[Blah64]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

To put it simply, it's cheaper to get it for free. Even if I wanted to run 10.4, I already have install disks for it around so I could just put it on. Or even wait for 10.5.1 to buy a new machine..

Careful with that thinking, or at least don't mislead others who might misunderstand.

If you bought a retail copy of 10.4, those install disks will work fine on many different machines. But if you have install discs for 10.4 because they came with the iMac or MacBook you bought last year, don't count on it. Many install discs will only install on certain versions or certain classes of machines. Unfortunately, I know this from experience.