Daily iPhone sales at Apple stores seven times that of AT&T stores

[AppleInsider]

The average Apple retail store sells as many iPhones in a single day as most AT&T retail stores sell in an entire week, say a team of analysts for investment research firm Piper Jaffray.

In their latest round of channel checks, Sr. Analyst Gene Munster and fellow Wireless Analyst Mike Walkley spent a considerable amount of time counting the number of iPhones leaving Apple and AT&T retail stores across the country.

Munster, who in a research note Tuesday said he spent 50 total hours at various Apple retail stores counting sales of the iPhone in two-hour intervals, reported that each Apple retail store sells an average of 21 iPhones per day. Paling in comparison were AT&T's stores which, according to Walkley's checks, sold just 21 iPhones per week.

Based on the pair's findings, Munster said Apple will likely hit its stated sales goal of 730,000 iPhones during the current September quarter ending the 29th, and may even sell as many as 804,000 units.

"We are in a unique position with iPhone channel checks, as the phone is only being sold in the U.S. at Apple and AT&T retail outlets, and Apple's online store," Munster explained. "Thus, we believe our checks accurately capture the market trends in the quarter."

For his part, Munster said his checks were roughly weighted between Apple's flagship stores (on the east and west coasts) and regular stores (in the Midwest). Given the average units sold in each two-hour period, he then extrapolated to a daily count using the average 11-hour retail day (10 a.m. to 9 p.m.).

Finally, the analyst took a weighted daily average for flagship stores and regular stores -- using 15 flagships (8 percent) and the remaining regular-sized stores (92 percent) -- for a final number of 21 iPhones per day at the average Apple store.

Using the same weighted average of flagship stores and regular stores, Munster -- who was also tracking Mac sales -- found that the average Apple retail store sells 55 Macs per day.

"This number implies 866,000 units from Apple retail stores; assuming another 17.4 percent of total Mac sales come from the Apple online store, and another 47 percent are sold through indirect channels, our estimates now suggest 2.0 million units for the September quarter," he wrote. "We note that this data should be supplemented with additional data, as the Mac channel is not as clean as the current iPhone channel, and we have no data with which we can compare our checks."

Munster maintained his Outperform rating on shares of Apple with a 12-month price target of $211 per share.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[SpamSandwich]

$211 would be the boss hog!

[MacTel]

If I were buying an iPhone, I would certainly not buy it from an AT&T store. I'd want the full Apple experience and I'm sure I can only get that at an Apple store.

[deepkid]

that's some fuzzy math he's done.

[bignumbers]

Is it just me, or does this guy have a lot of time on his hands to fly around the country to hang around Apple stores?

(I'll admit I didn't read his research note, so maybe he himself didn't do all the watching...)

He forgot one channel - Apple's online store, which I'm sure sells plenty of iPhones.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by deepkid

that's some fuzzy math he's done.

I agree.

...assuming another 17.4 percent of total Mac sales come from the Apple online store, and another 47 percent are sold through indirect channels...

I hope he explains these detaliled assumptions in his full write-up...

And 50 hours of observation to gather data on dozens of stores (in big cities and medium sized towns) doesn't sound like a very comprehensive survey...

[nagromme]

Originally Posted by bignumbers

Is it just me, or does this guy have a lot of time on his hands to fly around the country to hang around Apple stores?

(I'll admit I didn't read his research note, so maybe he himself didn't do all the watching...)

My thought too I think it was him. Don't they make interns for that?

(And yes, Apple--and AT&T I believe--sells iPhones online too. In fact, the massive sales numbers Apple announced for the first weekend did NOT include online sales IIRC--nor Sunday's sales. I'd be interested in the breakdown of online vs. walk-in purchases. I'm thinking online would be much higher, but the iPhone is an unpredictable case.)

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by bignumbers

Is it just me, or does this guy have a lot of time on his hands to fly around the country to hang around Apple stores?

(I'll admit I didn't read his research note, so maybe he himself didn't do all the watching...)

He forgot one channel - Apple's online store, which I'm sure sells plenty of iPhones.

This is not his free time... this is his JOB! And of course he's not doing it all (if any, which I doubt actually) - he's sending out unpaid summer interns to do the watching.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by cameronj

This is not his free time... this is his JOB! And of course he's not doing it all (if any, which I doubt actually) - he's sending out unpaid summer interns to do the watching.

Meanwhile, the interns are smoking pot behind the mall, picking up chicks and falling asleep.

[suhail]

now imagine how many Apple would sell if ATT releases the unlocking code for international travelers.

heck, if ATT is concerned about people unlocking their iPhones and switching their wireless provider, they should come-up with some sort of a dated unlock. Where the unlock functions for the travel duration, and once back in the U.S. the code expires and the iPhone is locked again.

I mean they should come-up with something!

[pmjoe]

Hmmm ... well there are two AT&T stores in my town, and the nearest Apple Store is 3 hours drive away. So, if Gene Munster, Mike Walkley and myself all got on trains going 50 miles an hour to the nearest Apple Store, what time would we meet? Well Piper Jaffray, come on, what time???

Of course I could just buy the iPhone online.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by pmjoe

Hmmm ... well there are two AT&T stores in my town, and the nearest Apple Store is 3 hours drive away. So, if Gene Munster, Mike Walkley and myself all got on trains going 50 miles an hour to the nearest Apple Store, what time would we meet? Well Piper Jaffray, come on, what time???

Of course I could just buy the iPhone online.

Online purchases represent the real mystery meat. Once sales are at an appreciable level, Steve & Pals will trumpet it, 'n thet's my gare-awn-tee!

[mrrippey]

Funny that Apple sells more than AT&T stores since my wife got hers from an AT&T store is it works great while my Apple purchased one is a dud that has to go for repairs (battery). Luck of the draw I guess.

Rippey

[monkeyastronaut]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Sr. Analyst Gene Munster and fellow Wireless Analyst Mike Walkley spent a considerable amount of time counting the number of iPhones leaving Apple and AT&T retail stores across the country.

They get paid to do that?

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by suhail

now imagine how many Apple would sell if ATT releases the unlocking code for international travelers.

Imagine how many Apple would sell if Apple had as many stores as AT&T!

Meanwhile, Steve Ballmer, giving thanks to God that Apple only has the stores they have!!

[kerryb]

iPhones are sold this quarter there will be characters on the web saying it is too little and a failure. So let's just prepare ourselves and ignore it when it happens.

[murphyweb]

It is too little and is a failiure!!

[lkrupp]

Originally Posted by murphyweb

It is too little and is a failiure!!

Apple should just take the thing off the market. It's causing too much stress to other cellphone makers and is upsetting the "sell it my way or else" crowd. Just get rid of it. Everyone will be happy again.

[ZagMac]

And is anyone else suspicious that they do their inventory checks by calling up the stores and asking them questions? Doesn't take much coaching for a store manager to give whatever reply the mothership wants them to. Man, I wish I was smart enough to get paid to travel to malls and watch things happen.

[anantksundaram]

Actually, his estimate of 2 million for this quarter checks out, if I am understanding it correctly.

He estimates 17.4% of total sales are online, and 47% through "indirect" channels, i.e., 35.6% were sold through Apple stores since the iPhone introduction. From his survey of 50 Apple stores, he estimates this 35.6% to equal approx. 800,000. Thus, his estimate of the total number sold is approx 2.25 million. Take out the 270,000 that Apple has already said sold in the first 36 hours (i.e., up to the end of the June quarter), and the estimate is therefore the roughly 2 million sold in the September quarter.

But one thing is not clear to me: What are these "indirect" channels (that account for 47%) he is referring to?

(One more thing: 50 is a decent-sized sample for this type of analysis, assuming it is a representative sample.)

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Actually, his estimate of 2 million for this quarter checks out, if I am understanding it correctly.

He estimates 17.4% of total sales are online, and 47% through "indirect" channels, i.e., 35.6% were sold through Apple stores since the iPhone introduction. From his survey of 50 Apple stores, he estimates this 35.6% to equal approx. 800,000. Thus, his estimate of the total number sold is approx 2.25 million. Take out the 270,000 that Apple has already said sold in the first 36 hours (i.e., up to the end of the June quarter), and the estimate is therefore the roughly 2 million sold in the September quarter.

But one thing is not clear to me: What are these "indirect" channels (that account for 47%) he is referring to?

(One more thing: 50 is a decent-sized sample for this type of analysis, assuming it is a representative sample.)

I read it as him switching to talking about Macs, not iPhone, when he was throwing around those higher numbers.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by suhail

now imagine how many Apple would sell if ATT releases the unlocking code for international travelers.
...
I mean they should come-up with something!

Yeah, because there are so many millions of international traveling smartphone users just waiting ...

(my point being you may be over estimating the number of people who travel internationally as a portion of the phone buying public. What could it be? 1%? .5%? .1%? Just because you want it, does not mean that it will have much effect on the overall market...)

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by cameronj

I read it as him switching to talking about Macs, not iPhone, when he was throwing around those higher numbers.

Oops..... you're right.....

[mdriftmeyer]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Meanwhile, the interns are smoking pot behind the mall, picking up chicks and falling asleep.

Right, because pussy in today's US Malls is so attractive. Of course, there are always those who find chubby chasing more than a sport I suppose.

[EagerDragon]

Difficult to see how Apple is going to sell 10 million iPhones by end of 2008.

Most of the sales comes from the 1800 AT&T stores and that comes out to be around 1.9 million a year or there about.

21 iPhones ber day for 150+ stores does not add up to the sales at AT&T. Sounds like AT&T salesman are not motivated to sell iPhones or are not well trained to do it. Either way AT&T can do a lot better.

I wonder why they don't sell as many as Apple stores?

Unless something changes, I do not see Apple getting 10 mil units by end of 2008.