September quarter iPod sales tracking around 10 - 11 million

[AppleInsider]

After examining iPod unit data from the month of July, researchers at Piper Jaffray say Apple is on track to sell 10 - 11 million iPods in total during the three-month period ending September 29th.

"Our analysis of iPod unit data from NPD for the month of July leads us to a preliminary iPod approximation of 10 million - 11 million for the September quarter," wrote analyst Gene Munster in one of several research notes released this week.

The analyst said his approximation is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data.

"When the second month of data is released, our analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure than what our analysis suggests based on the first month of data," he added, "so we believe investors should supplement this data point with other information."

Munster's approximation, which was issued early Wednesday, also does not factor in assumed demand for the new line of iPods that were announced several hours later. Shipments of those models could boost quarterly totals significantly, as Apple has three full weeks left in the September quarter to fill its distribution channels with the updated players.

Street consensus estimates for Apple's September quarter iPod shipments are presently at 10.6 million compared to Munster's model of 10.2 million.

Piper Jaffray maintains an Outperform rating on shares of Apple with 12-month price target of $211 per share.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[M.O.S.T]

Can this news PLEASE do the above to AAPL STOCK !!!!

[SpamSandwich]

I don't see the stock reacting appreciably to this news, especially since the market for Apple-range music players may be reaching a peak. I'd bet most of the growth will continue to happen on the low end, plus Wall Street ain't gonna like the $100 million screw-up due to Steve trying to keep iPhone sales on track. If Steve doesn't meet the numbers... then what happens? They fire him? Don't think so.

[M.O.S.T]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I don't see the stock reacting appreciably to this news, especially since the market for Apple-range music players may be reaching a peak. I'd bet most of the growth will continue to happen on the low end, plus Wall Street ain't gonna like the $100 million screw-up due to Steve trying to keep iPhone sales on track. If Steve doesn't meet the numbers... then what happens? They fire him? Don't think so.

I agree with that the iPod may be near a peak

Im just glad to see semi good news....With the iPod not having a refresh in about a year..... Plus the unknown if iPhone sales ate into iPod sales........ Good to see despite that - that they still sold 10ish Million iPods

[calguy]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I don't see the stock reacting appreciably to this news, especially since the market for Apple-range music players may be reaching a peak. I'd bet most of the growth will continue to happen on the low end, plus Wall Street ain't gonna like the $100 million screw-up due to Steve trying to keep iPhone sales on track. If Steve doesn't meet the numbers... then what happens? They fire him? Don't think so.

The market is always fickle. AAPL is going up and down like a yo-yo lately because of short term investors. It was 145 last week, now it's 132, but further back it was 145 and went down to 118. If I were a trader and not holding for the long term, I could be doing well for short term selling and buying following the trends of the past.

Overall, it is the long term and the bottom line at the end of the fiscal year that counts. AAPL income has been on a steady rise for the last 3 years along with the stock. So, that analysts quote for the stock to reach over 200 is very possible. Keep the faith investors and hold!

[Bergermeister]

Personally, I am doing my share to add to the figure.

Two iPods ordered this week!

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by M.O.S.T

I agree with that the iPod may be near a peak

Im just glad to see semi good news....With the iPod not having a refresh in about a year..... Plus the unknown if iPhone sales ate into iPod sales........ Good to see despite that - that they still sold 10ish Million iPods

What year are you in?

[S10]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I don't see the stock reacting appreciably to this news, especially since the market for Apple-range music players may be reaching a peak. I'd bet most of the growth will continue to happen on the low end, plus Wall Street ain't gonna like the $100 million screw-up due to Steve trying to keep iPhone sales on track. If Steve doesn't meet the numbers... then what happens? They fire him? Don't think so.

In fact the stock isn't reacting at all.. have you noticed how the stockmarket is doing in general these days? It's very nervous and over reacts on anything.

Wallstreet not liking the $100 million? well, first, that number is wrong and second it is peanuts compared to the billions Apple makes.


If you really think how the stockmarket works, use your knowledge in that field and become mega rich...

[alek_2]

There is still room for growth in home electronics sector; All of Mac computers should gain tv tuners with proper remotes - soon enough your beautiful 24'' iMac is your bedroom tv... Another 10 mil of these should push the stock close to google. Wishfull thinking? Who knows?

[macshark]

Originally Posted by alek_2

There is still room for growth in home electronics sector; All of Mac computers should gain tv tuners with proper remotes - soon enough your beautiful 24'' iMac is your bedroom tv... Another 10 mil of these should push the stock close to google. Wishfull thinking? Who knows?

Yes, there is still room for growth:

1. AppleTV should be fixed to output 1080i/p. Not so much for video, but for displaying iPhoto pictures on a large screen 1080i/p TV. Might as well add options for larger HDs - 250GB 2.5" drives are already shipping...

2. Tuners may not work as well these days as most people get their TV over cable and cable companies are trying hard to get rid of analog channels and move everything to digital. However, a cable-card slot in iMac would be the perfect solution.

3. A "headless" model that fits in between the Mac mini and the iMac is still the biggest hole in Apple's Mac portfolio.

4. An 12" super-light notebook.

12 month target of $211 per share. Yeah baby!

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I don't see the stock reacting appreciably to this news, especially since the market for Apple-range music players may be reaching a peak. I'd bet most of the growth will continue to happen on the low end, plus Wall Street ain't gonna like the $100 million screw-up due to Steve trying to keep iPhone sales on track. If Steve doesn't meet the numbers... then what happens? They fire him? Don't think so.

Well not to mention alot of those iPod were given away for free with the buy a mac get an ipod free deal. Im not sure how much that factors into the numbers.

[astromac]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I don't see the stock reacting appreciably to this news, especially since the market for Apple-range music players may be reaching a peak. I'd bet most of the growth will continue to happen on the low end, plus Wall Street ain't gonna like the $100 million screw-up due to Steve trying to keep iPhone sales on track. If Steve doesn't meet the numbers... then what happens? They fire him? Don't think so.

This will not cost Apple $100 million.

1. They hadn't sold a million iPhones by last Wednesday morning, maybe more like 800,000.

2. Some people won't take advantage of the rebate, leaving maybe 600,000.

So that brings it down do maybe $60 million or less. Also, the money must be spent at apple stores, so it might actually increase revenue if people buy things they wouldn't normally buy (bluetooth headset, iPhone case, etc.) So I think this will hurt them less than $30 million in profit. or maybe ~3% of their profit for the quarter.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by alek_2

There is still room for growth in home electronics sector; All of Mac computers should gain tv tuners with proper remotes - soon enough your beautiful 24'' iMac is your bedroom tv... Another 10 mil of these should push the stock close to google. Wishfull thinking? Who knows?

Let's see. A couple of grand for an iMac. Another 2-3 for software and all the rest of the goodies. And your spouse watching you surf the net and jump from channel to channel while you play with the remote. Plus a couple of your kids wanting the same thing.

Now that I think of it, you shouldn't have any problems. You'll be living alone.

[MacTel]

Originally Posted by macshark

Yes, there is still room for growth:

1. AppleTV should be fixed to output 1080i/p. Not so much for video, but for displaying iPhoto pictures on a large screen 1080i/p TV. Might as well add options for larger HDs - 250GB 2.5" drives are already shipping...

2. Tuners may not work as well these days as most people get their TV over cable and cable companies are trying hard to get rid of analog channels and move everything to digital. However, a cable-card slot in iMac would be the perfect solution.

3. A "headless" model that fits in between the Mac mini and the iMac is still the biggest hole in Apple's Mac portfolio.

4. An 12" super-light notebook.

12 month target of $211 per share. Yeah baby!

We sure we won't be seeing an iTablet. The iPhone and iPod touch took care of that idea. Many that would have bought an iTablet have probably bought one of the two devices.

[Booga]

Originally Posted by MacTel

We sure we won't be seeing an iTablet. The iPhone and iPod touch took care of that idea. Many that would have bought an iTablet have probably bought one of the two devices.

The only use-case I have for a tablet is something I could do on my old Newton 120 but still can't do on any Mac... do Visio/OmniGraffle-style diagrams quickly and easily. The rest is just icing. But when you're a systems engineer, that one capability is worth spending a rather larger amount on a laptop that has the tablet capability. (Oh, and docking. Please please please Apple, add a docking port.)

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Let's see. A couple of grand for an iMac. Another 2-3 for software and all the rest of the goodies.

Do you have 2-3 grand worth of software and accessories on your home computer?

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by alek_2

There is still room for growth in home electronics sector; All of Mac computers should gain tv tuners with proper remotes - soon enough your beautiful 24'' iMac is your bedroom tv... Another 10 mil of these should push the stock close to google. Wishfull thinking? Who knows?

iMac is still kind of expensive to use as a bedroom TV, and it's a bit on the small side now with respect to TVs.

[noirdesir]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

Do you have 2-3 grand worth of software and accessories on your home computer?

I'm using campus-wide licenses but if you add the street price for Adobe Illustrator, Photoshop, InDesign, Acrobat, Matlab, Mathematica, Office and Aperture together plus maybe 20 smaller apps at $50 each, you easily exceed 2k.

[Bergermeister]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

Do you have 2-3 grand worth of software and accessories on your home computer?

399 MS Office
079 iWork
079 iLife
029 QT Pro
099 .Mac
099 Toast
149 Omnigraffle Pro
1799 Adobe CS

Not to mention ConceptDrawPro, ConceptDrawMindMApPro, Frameforge3d, Aperture, and tons of little apps that total several hundred dollars.

Yep. I sure do.

[JeffDM]

noirdesr & Bergermeister; do either of your situations represent the common Mac user? I know one CAN spend a lot on software and accessories, I have quite a laundry list of stuff too. In a home setting, all the stuff you mention is not necessary to use the computer, except for certain education and professional work-at-home uses. I think users like us are likely at the very extreme end of the curve.

[mark2005]

Originally Posted by MacTel

We sure we won't be seeing an iTablet. The iPhone and iPod touch took care of that idea. Many that would have bought an iTablet have probably bought one of the two devices.

With the release of the iPod touch, I think the probability of a real "Tablet" has increased. Call it a Mac touch with a 12" screen, 32 or more likely 64GB flash, wifi, no DVD drive. Coming maybe as soon as January's MacWorld Expo if flash and display component prices decrease fast enough to meet price targets. Otherwise, April or Sept. Applications loaded via .Mac (the rumored Mobile Me) or another networked Mac. With Leopard, I think .Mac will gain much more capability to support Macs, iPhones, and iPod touch. The big difference will be that the Mac touch will have the full OS X for Mac and will run Mac OS X applications.

I think Apple is using the iPod touch and the Wifi store to drive wifi hotspot proliferation, which would be needed to make a Mac touch with just 32GB useful.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by astromac

This will not cost Apple $100 million.

1. They hadn't sold a million iPhones by last Wednesday morning, maybe more like 800,000.

2. Some people won't take advantage of the rebate, leaving maybe 600,000.

So that brings it down do maybe $60 million or less. Also, the money must be spent at apple stores, so it might actually increase revenue if people buy things they wouldn't normally buy (bluetooth headset, iPhone case, etc.) So I think this will hurt them less than $30 million in profit. or maybe ~3% of their profit for the quarter.

Remember, the people who bought it in the past two weeks will get $200 off, not $100. That about swamps the percentage of people who will walk away from the $100 rebate.

[Bergermeister]

Sorry, I didn't see "home" computer. That would be far less... take away the big ticket items and pretty much just go with with iLife and iwork, plus a few little apps. Max on my home machine would be 500 tops.

[Constable Odo]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

After examining iPod unit data from the month of July, researchers at Piper Jaffray say Apple is on track to sell 10 - 11 million iPods in total during the three-month period ending September 29th.

$211 a share has always been a PJ pipe dream. Apple would probably split long before that point. A bunch of numbers PJ never plugged in was the housing and credit collapse and unemployment snafu. It really doesn't matter how good iPods and iPhones are if the people can't afford them. Many of the Apple shorters are probably buying all their stock on credit, so at any point they hear some negative news and think the stock is going south, they sell off without looking at the big picture. They're useless chumps. Apple stock will be in the dumpster until strong holiday sales figures are proven. Right now the American economy is crap. Maybe it'll help get interest rate cuts.

The day the iPhone price was cut, 82 mil shares were traded. What sort of dipsticks set that fire sale in motion?

Good products obviously doesn't always equate to a high stock price. You really gotta convince (or convincingly lie to) investors that everything is PERFECT to get their trust. Or have some big name or institution just pushing a stock to keep it hot. What the heck makes BlackBerry stock so hot? The iPhone has the potential to smoke any model they got. Apple's profit margins are probably much better. Sure RIM sells to corporations, but the iPhone will sell in greater quantity with only a couple of models against all the multitude of BB models. I'll bet users will LOVE their iPhones and Touch's far more than some BlackBerry (OK that's just weird). What car manufacturer is building BlackBerry-ready cars? If the iPhone can ever get some corporate push e-mail server solution, kiss the BlackBerry reign goodbye.

So Apple's stock is currently stuck in quicksand and that's the name of that tune. A fair number of Apple stock investors have no balls and they're pathetic. Better luck next year on that high target price. I'm impatient for the stock to move up but I'll just have to stick it out a bit longer until some asshats come to their senses.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Constable Odo

$211 a share has always been a PJ pipe dream. Apple would probably split long before that point.

We don't know that, it's been beaten to death, but people put off by the price of an unsplit share really aren't thinking straight. I forget who, it might be Jobs, that said that they really don't feel the pressure to split as they might have in the past. Unsplit shares might even help with regards to your rant, if people think the price is too high because the price per share is high, then you don't want those investors. You want investors to look at the bigger picture.

Besides, even if it does split, if the price goes to $105.50 after a 2:1 split, then the projection would still be considered accurate. It's the same difference, 2 after-split shares at $105.50 would be the same money as an unsplit share at $211. I really don't know of anyone that doesn't adjust projections according to splits.