Report: iPhone sales at AT&T stores remain higher than expected

[AppleInsider]

Sales of Apple's slick touch-screen handset at AT&T retail stores, which saw an immediate spike following a $200 price cut earlier this month, appear to have stabilized at levels much higher than one analyst had anticipated.

In a report released to clients earlier this month, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said iPhone sales increased as much as threefold at most Apple and AT&T stores in the first five days that followed Apple's 33 percent price cut on Sept. 5th.

The analyst, as part of that same report, estimated that sales of the device would inevitably fall back to more sound levels, stabilizing at an approximate 50 percent increase to the rates witnessed before the price reduction. But in a brief bulletin issued to investors Friday morning, Munster happily conceded that a steadying of such magnitude has yet to kick in.

Instead, he said checks by fellow wireless analyst Mike Walkley indicate that iPhone demand at AT&T stores remains up at a sustained rate of anywhere between 70 and 100 percent since the price cut. Assuming a 70 percent increase in demand versus his previous 50 percent estimate would mean Apple is tracking to sell 40,000 more iPhones during the three-month period ending Saturday than previously anticipated.

"While 40,000 additional phones in the September quarter may seem irrelevant, keep in mind that this incremental change is the result of only 21 days in the quarter at the lower iPhone price point," the analyst informed clients. "If you assume that this +70 percent run rate is sustainable, it would add [approximately ]170,000 phones to a full quarter."

Since Walkley is a Piper Jaffray analyst covering only the wireless sector, the bulletin released by Munster on Friday included no new data on sales rates for Apple's own retail stores. Obviously, however, those rates would be similar if not substantially higher than those experienced by AT&T shops.

Munster, who is now modeling Apple to sell 1.05 million iPhones during the Sept. quarter (up from 1.01 million), maintained his industry-leading $211 price target and Outperform rating on shares of the Cupertino-based company.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[MacTel]

The holiday season is coming so it will remain high as people buy the iPhone as gifts to themselves and others. It also helps that Apple is improving the iPhone software at a rapid pace. I'm sure more goodies are in store before the new year.

[Ireland]

Still say the price reduction was one of the best moves I've seen Apple make in the last few years. I was very surprised when Apple did this, they got off their high horse and made the right move. Now what price is that iPhone nano going to be? Early next year, maybe late this one, the iPhone is going to go to 16GB. So you'll be able to buy an 8GB or 16GB iPhone. Apple then needs a 4GB and 8GB iPhone nano to round off that product line. 2008 should be an interesting one.

[pmjoe]

A few weeks after a major price cut is a bit premature to gauge if sales are "sustained". They are likely to drop some in October and go back up over the Nov/Dec holiday season. Sounds like these guys aren't even smart enough to figure that one out.

I mean seriously, does anyone monitor these analysts' track record??? Most of what I read from them comes across as hypothesizing on half baked numbers. If it turns out they're wrong 90% of the time and/or stating the blatantly obvious the rest, do they deserve the press this site gives them?

[macshark]

Originally Posted by pmjoe

I mean seriously, does anyone monitor these analysts' track record??? Most of what I read from them comes across as hypothesizing on half baked numbers. If it turns out they're wrong 90% of the time and/or stating the blatantly obvious the rest, do they deserve the press this site gives them?

They state what is blatantly obvious half the time.
The other half, they are wrong about 50% of the time.
Which means you can safely ignore analyst recommendations when investing....

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by pmjoe

A few weeks after a major price cut is a bit premature to gauge if sales are "sustained". They are likely to drop some in October and go back up over the Nov/Dec holiday season. Sounds like these guys aren't even smart enough to figure that one out.

I mean seriously, does anyone monitor these analysts' track record??? Most of what I read from them comes across as hypothesizing on half baked numbers. If it turns out they're wrong 90% of the time and/or stating the blatantly obvious the rest, do they deserve the press this site gives them?

I gather you know dick all about the investing community. Perhaps you should do a bit of due diligence. These guys are monitored by the minute. In particular by their clients.

Piper Jaffray for example, with approximately 11 hundred employees netting over a half billion a year, you don't get that big being wrong 90% of the time. SO yes, they deserve the press they get.

[davebarnes]

"first five days that proceeded" should be "first five days that followed"

[eridium]

Originally Posted by pmjoe

I mean seriously, does anyone monitor these analysts' track record??? Most of what I read from them comes across as hypothesizing on half baked numbers. If it turns out they're wrong 90% of the time and/or stating the blatantly obvious the rest, do they deserve the press this site gives them?

Yeah Joe, I've been monitoring Gene Munster's predictions, and rather than half-baked, they've instead always come to fruition as well as or better than he's reported. I made $20k on AAPL stock this year, and many of my trade decisions were influenced by Gene's reporting. His track record is solid. What about yours?

[Kasper]

Originally Posted by eridium

Yeah Joe, I've been monitoring Gene Munster's predictions, and rather than half-baked, they've instead always come to fruition as well as or better than he's reported. I made $20k on AAPL stock this year, and many of my trade decisions were influenced by Gene's reporting. His track record is solid. What about yours?

Thanks,

K

[mark2005]

Originally Posted by pmjoe

A few weeks after a major price cut is a bit premature to gauge if sales are "sustained". They are likely to drop some in October and go back up over the Nov/Dec holiday season. Sounds like these guys aren't even smart enough to figure that one out.

I mean seriously, does anyone monitor these analysts' track record??? Most of what I read from them comes across as hypothesizing on half baked numbers. If it turns out they're wrong 90% of the time and/or stating the blatantly obvious the rest, do they deserve the press this site gives them?

What evidence do you have that makes you think waiting four weeks after a major price cut is more indicative of the steady state than two weeks? Have you done this before or is it just gut feel?

Gene Munster has been one of the most aggressive in projecting Apple results, and therefore, compared to other analysts, the closest to being right. Even so, he has consistently underestimated Apple's results over the last 3 to 4 years.

[eridium]

Originally Posted by Kasper

Thanks

Hey Kasper, I hope my comment was helpful in some way, and if not ... here's some more info for you.

StarMine, which I believe is a company in San Francisco, makes a business out of rating analysts. For AAPL it has a list of 25 analyst recommendations and assigns a confidence number to each firm. Piper Jaffray (Gene Munster) gets a 77, in the top ranks. Of the firms that are reputable and well-known, only Deutsch Bank rated higher at 80. Goldman Sachs = 77, UBS = 76 and then a precipitous drop for everyone else from there down. This is only for coverage of Apple stock.

Just FYI, perhaps you already knew this.

And thanks for all your work at AppleInsider, I love reading your site.

[davidf01]

Originally Posted by eridium

Hey Kasper, I hope my comment was helpful in some way, and if not ... here's some more info for you.

StarMine, which I believe is a company in San Francisco, makes a business out of rating analysts.

Just FYI, perhaps you already knew this.

so, average joe ... we are waiting :-)

what's your track record?

-- way 2 go eiridium! ... adding facts instead of just bloated opinions to a messageboard!

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by Ireland

Still say the price reduction was one of the best moves I've seen Apple make in the last few years. I was very surprised when Apple did this, they got off their high horse and made the right move.

It was indeed a great move by Apple. Puts an afterburner under iPhone sales, makes the iPhone the 'must have' gadget for the holidays, AND is just in time to meet the first of the 'iPhone clones', the LG VX10000 ('Voyager').

Which Verizon and LG are gonna announce next Wednesday (likely ship date is November-December):













Yep, it's touchscreen (tho' not multitouch), yep, it's 3G, yep it has a real HTML web browser (not WAP). And it opens up into a real QWERTY keyboard, as you can see.

Good as the iPhone? Highly doubt it (tho' it is on a better network, with much better high-speed data coverage).

But it may be 'good enough' to steal significant sales. iPhone price drop was a great counter, definitely helps preempt it, and the wave of other wannabees that'll be following in '08.

...