Analyst weighs in on Leopard, expected Macworld launches

[AppleInsider]

Apple's upcoming release of Mac OS X Leopard could provide a major boost to the company's bottom line during the fall and could be bolstered even further by a new portable in January, according to a new report by analyst Gene Munster of investment firm Piper Jaffay.

The researcher maintained that Apple was "on track" to release Leopard by the end of October and that its timing could result in a surge of about $240 million to Apple's calendar fourth quarter results, even if adoption rates were similar to those from Mac OS X Tiger, which launched in April 2005. At the time, 15 percent of Apple's users bought either Tiger or a Mac preloaded with the software within six weeks of launch -- a feat possible due to the Mac maker's smaller customer base, but still widely believed to be a major accomplishment.

This uptake was expected to be higher as Apple's overall number of users running Mac OS X had nearly doubled from 12 to 23 million, Munster said. And unlike the launch of Windows Vista in January this year, Mac buyers were less likely to dent sales by waiting to receive the upgrade with a new computer, even as many enthusiasts upgraded or replaced existing systems specifically due to the new features.

"While we do not believe many consumers delay the purchase of a Mac because of Leopard, we expect its new features and updated look to be positive for Mac sales," the analyst wrote.

Munster supported the argument by drawing attention to projected Mac shipments in the quarter, which he predicted would range between 2.0 and 2.1 million units thanks in part to the new aluminum iMac and the back-to-school rush. iPhone and iPod sales traffic was likewise strong at retail outlets.

Apple was also unlikely to remain idle after the holiday season wrapped up, he added. The Piper Jaffray expert noted that the Cupertino, Calif.-based computer builder was most likely to expand its portable devices with at least one new system at Macworld show in January. Either a new Mac subnotebook or a multi-touch tablet was said to be '80 percent likely' for the IDG-run event.

Based on the new estimates, Piper Jaffray maintained its Outperform rating on Apple's stock, which surged 4 percent on Monday to close just short of $168.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[SpamSandwich]

Munster is smoking crack if he seriously thinks a tablet is coming soon. Sounds like these monkeys are pulling their old pump it up and sell, sell, sell tricks. Pure drivel.

[DigiH]

"had more than doubled from 12 to 23 million"

I'm not sure if this is a quote taken from the original report, but with my simple maths 23 is not quite the double of 12, definitely not "more"

Sorry, couldn't resist

[studiomusic]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Either a new Mac subnotebook or a multi-touch tablet was said to be '80 percent likely' for the IDG-run event.

Why can't they just say "We think they will do this or that" instead of saying 80% chance... and why not 99%? There's still that 1% that can save your butt!

BS, FUD (or the opposite?) to raise the stock price and take some profits. You will know when they have sold their shares when the price drops 5-7% in a day on a "bad outlook".

Just like Men At Work's first album... Business As Usual.

//glad I bought my stock in January!

[mdriftmeyer]

Originally Posted by studiomusic

Why can't they just say "We think they will do this or that" instead of saying 80% chance... and why not 99%? There's still that 1% that can save your butt!

BS, FUD (or the opposite?) to raise the stock price and take some profits. You will know when they have sold their shares when the price drops 5-7% in a day on a "bad outlook".

Just like Men At Work's first album... Business As Usual.

//glad I bought my stock in January!

In the Laws of Probability 80% probable isn't remotely the same as 99% probable.

[Ireland]

10" tablet please!!!

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by Ireland

10" tablet please!!!

With a 4:3 ratio display please.

[Sekio]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

"While we do not believe many consumers delay the purchase of a Mac because of Leopard, we expect its new features and updated look to be positive for Mac sales," the analyst wrote.

I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.

[David Stevenson]

Originally Posted by Sekio

I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.

Myself excluded. I bought a 12" powerbook weeks before Tiger was released because I didn't want a new OS. Accellerated my purchase by six months or so, and I'm glad I did.

[neven]

Originally Posted by Sekio

I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.

You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by neven

You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.

• Most Mac users aren't going to care about a measly $129 upgrade fee
• Some Mac users will DL a copy illegally since there is no authentication code (shame on you people!)
• Some will wait until 10.5.{1-3} is available before upgrading due to stability issues.
• Very few will hold off to save $129. The most likely reason to holdoff is to see if Apple releases new HW updates. The MacBooks, in particular, should be updated any day now.
• WIth about 50% of Mac users being "switchers" their knowledge of Leopard is pretty much nil as neven stated.

[studiomusic]

Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer

In the Laws of Probability 80% probable isn't remotely the same as 99% probable.

If they were using laws instead of pulling numbers out of ...er... a hat, then I would agree.
Either they have info or not, the rest is speculation.

[desarc]

half of all analysts believe that the quote "there is a '80 percent chance that new portables will come out in the %08 calendar year" is @40 percent accurate at satisfying a third of consumers...

i will take my $100 iPhone credit and pick up leopard with it... just what Jobs wants.

[g5man]

Originally Posted by neven

You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.

I beg to differ. last time 15% bought it within six weeks. If this time we have 20% out of 23 million we are looking at 4.6 million people buying the software. I think about 20% of those which is about 900K are waiting for Leopard before upgrading. There is no guarantee they will. But if new Macs and improved performance are part of the Leopard release, then we could see a surge of new Macs being sold.

I am one of those waiting.

[macshark]

All this and no target price upgrade for AAPL?

Only 432.09 till AAPL hits 600!

[SpamSandwich]

What's the calendar on Apple's quarter end? When's the next call?

[mattdeuce]

I've been dying to get my hands on a new imac... but with leopard so close, why would I buy a new imac only to upgrade it 3 weeks later. So, I'm sitting tight. I hate upgrades, but maybe that's just my bad history with windows upgrades, thus the reason I'm switching to a mac. Windows is an old dog with no new tricks. Guaranteed I'm buying a fully loaded imac on the day of the leopard release.

[walshbj]

I'm really curious about what will be the show-stopper at Macworld. I was kind of expecting a sub-notebook at the Leopard launch, but maybe that was giving the rumors too much merit.
Last year it was the iPhone. The year before was the Macbook Pro, wasn't it? I don't remember.

They must be holding something for Macworld. What is it??

[baygbm]

Originally Posted by Sekio

I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.

Me too.

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by solipsism

With a 4:3 ratio display please.

I'll think you'll find you meant 3:2, or 16:10 perhaps?

4:3? Hell no.

[thebeat]

will they be releasing the new Macbook Pro Penyrth processor at MACWORLD?

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by neven

You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.

It wasn't even mentioned in the last two press events either. While they did promote it a bit at MWSF and on the front of the Apple page, the only way anyone would know anything about Leopard or even that it exists would be to go to a Mac enthusiast site or spelunk a bit at Apple.com. I don't think there is even any promotional material at the Apple stores either. It's not a secret, but it seems like they are trying hard to not tell anyone about it.

Originally Posted by Ireland

I'll think you'll find you meant 3:2, or 16:10 perhaps?

4:3? Hell no.

On such a small display, some people consider that to be too short to be used as a computer display. Even shorter when you take out space for the default dock location and menu bar. For the same diagonal, widescreen does add width, but takes a disproportionate amount of the height in exchange.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by neven

You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.

Brilliant comment!

Include my wife in that group, despite the fact that she has used (her own -- to this date) Macs since 1984, has a husband who is a Mac fan: yet she does not know what Leopard is.

In fact, just today, when I told her that it's an improvement over Tiger, she asked, "What's Tiger?"

Sometimes, I think we do, indeed, fail to recognize that we might be the ones that might inhabit a parallel universe!

[jasenj1]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

It's not a secret, but it seems like they are trying hard to not tell anyone about it.

Sure, don't want to dissuade any ignorant consumers coming in to pick up a new computer. It'd be pretty bad to have a customer looking over a new iMac glance up and say, "What's that?" "Ah, it's a poster for our new OS that's coming out in a month." "Oh. I'll be back then."

I'm firmly in the waiting for Leopard camp. And I'm also waiting for new MacBooks - hopefully with x3100 graphics. We've been wanting a laptop for a few years now, but something else keeps getting in the way. This go 'round I'm determined to buy on day 1 - week 1 at the latest.

- Jasen.

[e1618978]

Originally Posted by Ireland

I'll think you'll find you meant 3:2, or 16:10 perhaps?

4:3? Hell no.

8.5:11, the same as a piece of paper, plus a little bit for the dock (so maybe 9.5:11).

[ifiredmyboss.com]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

What's the calendar on Apple's quarter end? When's the next call?

The qtr just ended

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by ifiredmyboss.com

The qtr just ended

Next end of Apple's quarter must be 10/25/07. Am I right?

[JustBrady]

Originally Posted by Sekio

I disagree. I know of a few people who are waiting for Leopard before upgrading their computers, myself included.

ditto

[mdriftmeyer]

Originally Posted by neven

You and a few friends don't constitute "most" Mac buyers. The typical Mac buyer doesn't pay attention to rumor sites, doesn't hang around Mac forums, and these days, the average Mac buyer probably doesn't know what Leopard is.

I've got PowerPC OS X and I'll buy 10.5 Family Pack, but I'm definitely waiting for the next phase of Mac Pro this coming MacWorld January before I buy another system.

The only problem I will have is dealing with 64 bit development.

I'll have to wait for the new hardware.

Then again, I could get present Mac Pro and then buy a second box, but I'd rather buy the upcoming Mac Pro and buy an upcoming XServe.

[drjjones]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Next end of Apple's quarter must be 10/25/07. Am I right?

The quarter ended 9/30/07.
This is also end of year .
Both to be reported 10 /22/07.

[desarc]

as for what's coming at macworld, how about apple pays a little attention to the "pro" hardware? anyone here remember when apple made computers for design/animation?

some new desktops would be nice. throw in yorkfield chips and some HD optical drives... and update the monitors - it's been a while. glass on the imac, why not the cinemas?

[TBaggins]

beep.

[TBaggins]

We need a new term to describe this phenomenon: "Leopard waiters".

Of which, I am one too. 'cept I may be waiting a good loooong time past the Leopard release. Why?

Well, I want a (new) 15" notebook this time around. But I'm not gonna shell out $2000 for one, which is what Stevie J seems to think is a good minimum for a 15" notebook, even though well-equipped 15" PC notebooks can be had for $1200 or so (and not so well-equipped for a lot less than that).

Yeah, we know, we KNOW... Apple notebooks are selling like hotcakes even so. And booyah for that, since I own Apple stock.

Thing is, Apple could be doing even better if their prices in some segments weren't so looney-tunes... such as $2K for a new notebook if one wants a screen larger than 13".

Sorry Steve, but the notebook segment has moved on... 13" is small now, 14-15" is standard these days. And $2K is now more than double the average notebook price ($938 as of Q2 '07... http://www.computerwire.com/industri...E-8921818C09FB )

So my choices are... a too-small screen at an 'almost sane' price (MB), or an average-sized screen at an outrageous price (MBP).

Sry, but at some point you have to say... screw that.

Someday, probably a looong time down the road, Apple will either price drop (lol... yeah, when Hell holds snowboarding tournaments), or they'll bring 15" screens to the MB lineup. Don't care how they get there, long as they do. I can wait to buy.

So, we'll see who's more stubborn... TBaggins, future Mac upgrader, or Steven P. "How can I wring even more money out of them?" Jobs.

If the wait is a long one, that's okay... I got plenty of time.


.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Brilliant comment!

Sometimes, I think we do, indeed, fail to recognize that we might be the ones that might inhabit a parallel universe!

We do. most Mac users have no idea about any of the issues we debate here.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Next end of Apple's quarter must be 10/25/07. Am I right?

What are you saying?

The quarter, as has been stated, ended 9/30/07. That was the forth quarter.

We are now in the first accounting quarter of 2008. That will end 12/31/07.

I know it sounds odd, but that's the way it is.

The call from analysts for the last quarter, which just ended, will be on the 22nd of this month.

I hope that cleared it up for you.

[backtomac]

A quetion for those with AAPL stock. Is it time to sell? Maybe take a little of the table and buy back after MacWorld? This run up in AAPL stock is quite amazing.

I not saying that I'm going to do this but the thought is definitely crossing my mind.

[clemo]

bollocks. who wants to pay 130 euros extra just for not being patient if he can. in addition, switchers are going to wait so they don't get accustomed to an old system and then have to relearn stuff.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by backtomac

A quetion for those with AAPL stock. Is it time to sell? Maybe take a little of the table and buy back after MacWorld? This run up in AAPL stock is quite amazing.

I not saying that I'm going to do this but the thought is definitely crossing my mind.

I'm holding. Unless you are just buying through an IRA, or equivalent, where you pay no taxes upon selling into profits, it might be dangerous to sell. without going into detail about puts, calls, etc., what is the guarantee that the stock will go down enough to cover your taxes? If it goes up before it drops to that level, assuming it drops after you sell without going up more first, you may be caught short.

I've held since I bought at $16.93 in 2004, and while I could have made more by selling, and re-buying, there is no guarantee that the timing would have been right.

I'll cry over my 2,000% gain.

[GavinScrimgeour]

Originally Posted by clemo

bollocks. who wants to pay 130 euros extra just for not being patient if he can. in addition, switchers are going to wait so they don't get accustomed to an old system and then have to relearn stuff.

Wait a wee while and save 130 quid, or buy now......... hmmm

Patience will pay off in the end.

Like the advice on a Guinness Beer mat once said "All things come to he who waits ".

For goodness sake, I cant wait myself, but I am. It is torture apple dangling a carrot above our heads like this, but common sense says wait off!

Come on people, use the common sense.

Canny wait to get Leopard though!!!!!!!

[Wildguess]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

What's the calendar on Apple's quarter end? When's the next call?

Apple will report earnings October 22.