Piper ups likelihood of ultra-portable at Macworld, comments on iPhone

[AppleInsider]

Investment bank Piper Jaffray said Friday it now believes there is as an 85 percent likelihood that Apple at the upcoming Macworld Expo in January will finally take the wraps off its long-rumored ultra-portable MacBook.

"As Macworld approaches, reports of an ultraportable MacBook are following patterns of previously expected products that eventually materialized," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients. "We believe these reports are legitimate and continue to expect Apple to introduce a MacBook with a significantly smaller form factor."

Earlier this month, AppleInsider cited well-respected sources who, following nearly two years of internal development on Apple's part, are finally pinning the thin and lightweight 13-inch sub-notebook for an unveiling on January 15, 2008 as part of the company's annual Macworld Expo announcements.

Munster, who dubbed the ultra-portable MacBook his "hot topic of the month," had previously estimated that there was a 75 percent chance the notebook would make an appearance at the conference.

Meanwhile, the analyst also used his note to clients on Friday to offer a roundup of recent ongoings with Apple's overseas iPhone launches, noting that Cupertino-based company's three carrier partners in the Europe each expect to sell about 100,000 iPhones by the end of the year.

"Collectively, we were expecting the European iPhone launches to add 250,000 to December iPhone sales, but if Apple sells 100,000+ iPhones in the UK, Germany and France, there would likely be upside to our iPhone estimates," he advised clients. "Thus far, it appears as though iPhone units in Europe are not exceeding the carriers' expectations; however, the carriers' estimates are meaningfully higher than our initial estimate of 250,000 in Europe."

Also, Munster said that Verizon's announcement this week that it will open its network up to "any application on any device" in 2008 will have "virtually no impact" on Apple's exclusive deal with AT&T and its revenue sharing agreement given that Verizon's network is CDMA and the iPhone only operates on GSM networks.

Long term, however, the move makes it easier for Google's Android platform to proliferate; as such it may indirectly impact the iPhone, but at this point the impact of Android on the iPhone is difficult to predict, the analyst told clients.

"The Verizon announcement coincides with Google's Android plans and the formation of the Open Handset Alliance, OHA, of which Verizon is a member," he wrote. "While it is too early to tell, this could be the beginning of a new chapter in the wireless market. Microsoft has taken its traditional software-centric approach offering Windows Mobile to any device maker wishing to partner with Microsoft, [while] Apple has opted for a closed ecosystem in which it controls the entire experience (hardware, software, phone activation, etc.), and Google has invested in an open sourced platform with Verizon as the open carrier."

Nevertheless, Munster said it will be interesting to see what wireless users come to expect over the next several years with those three major players competing for customer support.

"If consumer demand shifts toward an open system based on choice, then Apple's closed agreement with AT&T could become a limiting issue," he added. "However, we believe customers also appreciate and need simplicity. Apple and AT&T's closed system enables a user to buy the phone activate and load it with media in a few easy steps, which is made possible by the closed nature of the iPhone ecosystem."

The Piper Jaffray analyst maintained his Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of Apple.


---------

Black Friday Mac pricing matrix (find the best prices)

While Apple on Friday announced modest price cuts on a handful of Macs for its 24 hour sale, several of the company's authorized resellers have stepped up to offer much steeper discounts, including OnSale.com and ClubMac, which have cut $200 off some unibody MacBooks and $300 off some unibody MacBook Pros. Our pricing matrix (below) highlights the best deals on each of the current Mac models.

With Best Buy's 4-day Mac sale coming to a close Thursday at midnight, both OnSale.com and ClubMac have moved in to fill the void, offering identical pricing and the lowest prices we've seen on 13 of the 16 current Mac models. MacMall's own Black Friday deals match those from OnSale and Club Mac on 9 models, while Amazon.com offers the best deal on the 8-Core Mac Pro.

We've laid out the below Black Friday Mac Pricing Matrix to make it easy for readers to locate the lowest price on the Mac model of their choice. The best deals are highlighted in bold. The "Discount" column to the far right reflects the amount of savings between Apple's suggested retail price and the lowest price offered Friday for that respective model.

Each price is a link that will take you to the retailer's product page for the specific Mac model.

Black Friday: Office 2008, Parallels, Quicken, Adobe

A handful of Mac software developers are offering special savings for Black Friday, including Parallels, Intuit, and Adobe. The deepest discount comes from Microsoft, which has cut the price of Office 2008 for Mac Special Media Edition by $330, bringing the cost down to $169.99.

Office 2008 for Mac

Microsoft, via Amazon.com, is running a 24-hour special on Microsoft Office 2008 for Mac Special Media Edition, lopping 66% off the suggested retail price, which reduces the cost to $169.99.

Similarly, Microsoft has also cut 63% off Microsoft Office 2008 for Mac Special Media Edition Upgrade for owners of Office 2004 for Mac, which brings the cost down to $109.99.

Also on sale for $109.99 is Microsoft Office 2008 for Mac Home & Student Edition -- a 27% discount.

Save $5 off Parallels 4.0

Parallels is offering $5 off Parallels Desktop for Mac 4.0 when you use this link, brining the cost down to $74.99. Please note that the above link automatically adds a $6.99 "Extended Download" option to your shopping cart, but you can simply remove this item by clicking the "X".

Quicken 2007 for Mac

Intuit is offering 23% off Quicken for Mac 2007 -- the latest version of the financial software for the Mac -- bringing the cost down to $33.99. It's available on CD or as a direct download.

QuickBooks 2009 for Mac is also on sale through Amazon.com for $179.99 -- a modest $20 discount.

Adobe

Adobe is offering 30% (or $100) off Lightroom 2 when you purchase the software along with a full or upgrade version of Photoshop CS4, Photoshop CS4 Extended, or Creative Suite® containing Photoshop CS4 or Photoshop CS4 Extended.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[Fishyesque]

Hurry up and get here already.

[Sedicivalvole]

Are we saying it will be a powerhouse i.e macbook pro or a shrunk macbook?

[zunx]

Hopefully it will be based on Intel Silverthorne chip, and thus it will be tiny. The full Mac OS X computer on your hand. Finally!

[rjharary]

Who cares anymore? i've been waiting too long and I now like my 13" MB enough to just keep it.

[Fishyesque]

Originally Posted by Sedicivalvole

Are we saying it will be a powerhouse i.e macbook pro or a shrunk macbook?

I think Apple would only make a smaller 'Pro' version.

[HyteProsector]

Originally Posted by rjharary

Who cares anymore? i've been waiting too long and I now like my 13" MB enough to just keep it.

People that never knew it was coming in the first place will get excited. It will probably snag an article in the USAToday or something like that as well.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Sedicivalvole

Are we saying it will be a powerhouse i.e macbook pro or a shrunk macbook?

A shrunken Mac Book.

You can't make a powerhouse portable that size. Small and light will always be much less powerful than large and heavy. It should be obvious, when the well known heat problems are taken into account.

low power chips are used for ultralights, as well as slower, smaller HDD's. If Apple chooses to use an SSD, that will help.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Fishyesque

I think Apple would only make a smaller 'Pro' version.

It may be a pro version, but it won't have a pro's power.

[melgross]

I hope that all this will be (if it really does come out) is a "One more thing" product. It would be a big disappointment, to say the least, if it were the only major announcement this MacWorld.

[AndroidGuys]

Verizon has nothing to do with the Open Handset Alliance. Look it up.

AndroidGuys.com

[eridium]

Originally Posted by rjharary

Who cares anymore? i've been waiting too long and I now like my 13" MB enough to just keep it.

We care a lot. I usually have a portable Mac for just that, carrying around. For real work I have a desktop Mac, and I'm waiting to dump my PowerBook to get one of these. There's a huge market for small, light portables ... it's called Japan.

You may already have a 13" portable, that's well and good, but just because you already have one doesn't mean that others wouldn't covet the small and light 13" ultraportable. I'll buy it the moment it's announced.

By the way, the HDD will not be a magnetic disk drive: it will be a flash memory drive. This will reduce power use and weight, along with capacity. It'd pair up perfectly with one of these:
http://www.g-technology.com/Products/G-DRIVE-mini.cfm

[satchmo]

Originally Posted by melgross

It may be a pro version, but it won't have a pro's power.

And more importantly, priced as a pro version.

[Clive At Five]

Originally Posted by Sedicivalvole

Are we saying it will be a powerhouse i.e macbook pro or a shrunk macbook?

See that's the thing about "ultra-portables." You can call it "Pro," but it won't have the power of an MBP. The harder Apple tries to make this a "pro" laptop, the further from "ultra-portable" we get.

I'm hoping it's a shrunken MB, or better yet, that Apple doesn't try to compare it to either product line and just lets it be itself. MacBook Mini. The MBM has to have compromised performance for portability. An ultra-portable is supposed to suppliment your desktop (or main computer), and shouldn't need to worry about running a lick of photoshop, FCE, or maybe not even iMovie (though I hear the newest iMovie is pretty light-weight).

People need to get this through their heads that an ultra-portable is a SUPPLIMENT, and shouldn't have to compete with other more fully-powered laptops... and if that's our (Apple's) course of action, they will only end up with a "slightly-more-portable," and fail to bring something actually new to their product line-up.

Don't get me wrong, some people WANT "slightly-more-portables," but they should not be confused with "ultra-portables.

I'm fearing that this will be the former.

-Clive

[KennyWRX]

Originally Posted by satchmo

And more importantly, priced as a pro version.

LOL, good one. That is probably the only Pro feature it'll have.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by satchmo

And more importantly, priced as a pro version.

That's likely.

[KennyWRX]

I just hope it's smaller than 13.3". I think a 10" would be great.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

maybe not even iMovie (though I hear the newest iMovie is pretty light-weight).

Well, I don't know what your definition of lightweight is, but iMovie has the highest processor requirements of any of the iLife programs.

Still, it is supposed to work on any of the intel Macs, so I can't imagine it wouldn't run on what is comming.

And your point is well taken--if you need a portable workhorse, get a MBP.


(I'm just bummed that my PB G4 is falling off the list of supported CPUs...)

[Louzer]

Originally Posted by zunx

Hopefully it will be based on Intel Silverthorne chip, and thus it will be tiny. The full Mac OS X computer on your hand. Finally!

I'm betting on this finally being the Powerbook G5 we've been waiting for. Just what would be needed to keep on e warm in the middle of winter.

[Fishyesque]

Originally Posted by melgross

It may be a pro version, but it won't have a pro's power.

Yeah, I realized I didn't get my point across. I believe it will have a pro feel to it, a business feel, more so than a Macbook.
Definitely wont have the power of a MBP by any means.

[Shogun]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

People need to get this through their heads that an ultra-portable is a SUPPLIMENT, and should have to compete with other more fully-powered laptops...
-Clive

Riiiight. Except... isn't that what someone somewhere said about powerhouse desktop machines as compared to mainframes? Seriously, in the future power and small will be less and less mutually exclusive. As 2008 is the future, I'm not hedging my bets.

[Clive At Five]

Originally Posted by Shogun

Riiiight. Except... isn't that what someone somewhere said about powerhouse desktop machines as compared to mainframes? Seriously, in the future power and small will be less and less mutually exclusive. As 2008 is the future, I'm not hedging my bets.

That was supposed to be a "shouldn't," sorry for the confusion.

Eventually, we'll get to a point where we'll have one main computer will a butt-load of CPU power, and carry about terminals that simply reflect what would be on the screen of the main computer. With little-to-no computing power built-in, it would just be a wifi-esque connection and a display... and support for attachable peripherals if needed.

-Clive

[appleeinstein]

Any ultraportable that Apple makes is going to begin moving away from the traditional notebook form factor. I'm thinking a tablet, personally.

[Fishyesque]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

That was supposed to be a "shouldn't," sorry for the confusion.

Eventually, we'll get to a point where we'll have one main computer will a butt-load of CPU power, and carry about terminals that simply reflect what would be on the screen of the main computer. With little-to-no computing power built-in, it would just be a wifi-esque connection and a display... and support for attachable peripherals if needed.

-Clive

I thought it was obvious that it was a simple mistake.

[DanUK]

I definitely agree that this needs tol be a supplemental machine, not for all day use/time critical photoshopping if it is to succeed in tapping into an emerging sector.

Lurch is calling it a Macbook- smart money says this will have a new name, design and set of ads to cement the exposure that the iPhone has brought.

This is not the machine for someone who wants a bit of everything or wants it to be their only machine- it should and will have compromises re power/size/specs. I am still going to get my girlfriend a santa rosa MacBook next week as this coming machine will not be the one for her.

ps Thanks Eridium for the link to the G Tech site-In the market and I may have a look at how they compare to others price-wise.

pps Anyone had any thoughts regarding the fact that apart from serious graphics ability the current MacBook and MacBook Pro are virtually indistinguishable speed wise and the MB beat the Pro in some tests? Upgrades to the MBP must be coming but what are they going to be? New form factor?

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by appleeinstein

Any ultraportable that Apple makes is going to begin moving away from the traditional notebook form factor. I'm thinking a tablet, personally.

That would be interesting.
But I'm not convinced it is what the market wants at this point. And I am even less convinced that that is what is comming next. Maybe after we get our small formfactor laptop they can try to build the niche market of the tablet...which I agree would be interesting.

[Fishyesque]

I wouldn't expect the tablet until towards the end of 2008. Maybe people will be ready for it by then.

[elroth]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

maybe not even iMovie (though I hear the newest iMovie is pretty light-weight).

As Bageljoey pointed out, the new iMovie takes much more processing power than the old iMovie HD, even though it has about half the capability. The change in the interface requires faster chips and more memory.
You could say it's light-weight in function, but not in processor use.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Fishyesque

I believe it will have a pro feel to it, a business feel, more so than a Macbook.

It's going to be made out of corrugated cardboard to make it lightweight and keep it environmentally friendly and not p'off Greenpeace. Just like the recycled looking blue folders throughout Leopard.
And no plastic - only glossy glass.

[Clive At Five]

Originally Posted by elroth

As Bageljoey pointed out, the new iMovie takes much more processing power than the old iMovie HD, even though it has about half the capability. The change in the interface requires faster chips and more memory.
You could say it's light-weight in function, but not in processor use.

Hmm... well it wouldn't make much sense to bundle software that requires better specs than the unit, so either a MBM would be able to run iMovie, or it shouldn't come with iLife... neither option is without its disadvantages...

-Clive

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

That was supposed to be a "shouldn't," sorry for the confusion.

Eventually, we'll get to a point where we'll have one main computer will a butt-load of CPU power, and carry about terminals that simply reflect what would be on the screen of the main computer. With little-to-no computing power built-in, it would just be a wifi-esque connection and a display... and support for attachable peripherals if needed.

-Clive

What a nutso idea.

Oh wait, that's what I do. Get yourself a few $200 laptops, a gotomypc account and you're all set.

[NYCMacFan]

1. Remember that speeds of processors double every 18 months (Moore's law still works, even today). So the "slower" ultraportable is usually as fast as a slightly older desktop. It's not a big penalty.

2. Memory matters and as long as you get the ultraportable with 2g of Ram or more, most programs will be pretty fast. I still work on an old G4 PB 12incher and it is fast for most jobs. Dunno how processor intensive iMovie is however...

3. Flash based storage has much faster theoretical access times than a conventional HDD and this can conceivably help, including super fast start-up times. Unfortunately, tests to date of these things have not shown a big performance bump for computers.

I suspect firms like Apple, Sony and Toshiba will be thinking creatively about making use of the potential access times for this kind of memory. Probably too late to be of benefit for any January release product (one reason I hate Dell and Compaq is they buy better processors and stuff off the shelf, but they make zero effort to come up with creative platforms to make the best use of them, as you can see they don't even put money into coming up with better plugs and adapters).

4. I really do not care about processor speeds. I'm not doing graphic design or CGI and so anything I do on a new computer is twice as fast or more as my old computer. So I don't mind.

[NYCMacFan]

The notion of an Aluminum enclosure sounds cool as well.

I had a scary dream that the Kindle would inspire other firms to pursue the retro 70s Battlestar Galactica look...

(too bad as I love the Kindle as a concept too....)

[GregAlexander]

I hope we see an ultra portable - but this report is just circular.

ie: We've already read the rumors for the ultra portable.
Now Gene Munster is repeating that they believe the rumours are true, because when there was this degree of talk in the past on similar rumored products, they turned out to be true.

And his comments then boost our rumor's credibility....
Round and round it goes

[ecking]

Forget 13", 11" is where it's at.

[Fishyesque]

Originally Posted by ecking

Forget 13", 11" is where it's at.

but I want 13"

Let 10-11" be for the tablet.
Cheers

[ncee]

And to think, this won't even be the BIG news at MacExpo

Skip

[one9deuce]

Ok Skip, what will the "big" news be? iPhone version 2? Apple TV upgrade and iTunes movie rentals? iPhone nano (or whatever the model without internet will be called?

[BallmerSteve]

Jobs lacks the vision!

[onlooker]

Originally Posted by Fishyesque

but I want 13"

Let 10-11" be for the tablet.
Cheers

I doubt there are two, and I imagine if there is anything to this rumor they are both the same product in one convertible tablet. 13" seems small to be a professionals tablet. Maybe it's a MacBook replacement.