Report: iPhone outpacing rivals in Europe without 3G

[AppleInsider]

Despite a very familiar set of limitations, the iPhone is showing continued demand in Europe and leading its immediate rivals, says RBC analyst Michael Abramsky.

Sales checks in France, Germany, and the UK have all revealed strong sales both during and immediately after each country's respective launches. While T-Mobile's initial launch saw only 10,000 iPhones sold in Germany on the first day, many of the carrier's 700 retail stores continue to reflect a "solid" demand of 15-20 iPhones sold per week, Abramsky says.

France has so far proven the most immediately successful of the three nations, having registered roughly 63,000 customers on Orange's website amid reports of sellouts at some of the cellular provider's Parisian stores. Britain's O2 sold between 30,000 and 40,000 iPhones on its first weekend.

Surprisingly, reports from all three countries point to the device outrunning competitors that should theoretically fare better than the iPhone due to features or price. Phones like the HTC Touch or LG Prada are often heavily subsidized or offer features that the iPhone lacks, but are still being outsold by Apple's first offering.

The iPhone is even outselling Nokia's well-known N95 smartphone, which has sold more than a million units in the UK since its March release, the analyst writes.

Europeans are still hesitant to buy the iPhone due to the lack of fast 3G Internet access, its stripped-down Bluetooth feature set, and an unusually high price. However, the statistics suggest that a future 3G iPhone will be more of a pleasant upside to the iPhone's sales than an absolute necessity, Abramsky notes.

The strength of the iPhone is leading RBC to increase its total iPhone forecast to 12.5 million phones sold worldwide by the end of calendar 2008, 25 percent higher than Apple's stated goal of 10 million. About 4 million of these will come from buyers outside the US and may include countries such as Canada, Italy, and Spain, all of whom are top candidates to receive the iPhone next year.

A popular iPhone in Europe could also result in a "halo" that translates to increased sales for the Mac on the continent, according to the report.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[help4mac]

I think it's more the olah effect meaning Apple's success in Europe with the iPod and Macs will translate into higher than expected iPhone sales.

[jragosta]

Originally Posted by help4mac

I think it's more the olah effect meaning Apple's success in Europe with the iPod and Macs will translate into higher than expected iPhone sales.

I don't care what the explanation is. I just hope people will remember that the 'experts' have been saying for weeks that the iPhone won't sell in Europe - and maybe they'll stop believing the Apple-bashing 'experts'.

[Fotek2001]

Originally Posted by jragosta

I don't care what the explanation is. I just hope people will remember that the 'experts' have been saying for weeks that the iPhone won't sell in Europe - and maybe they'll stop believing the Apple-bashing 'experts'.

They may be selling but I've still not seen anyone using one and I live in Central London. If people are buying them, where are they..?

[Guartho]

Maybe they're inside because they don't have to wander around outside looking for a good 3G signal.

[TBaggins]

Now, I'm THOROUGHLY confused. Remember this AI headline from just a few days ago?:


Reports: UK consumers slow to adopt Apple's iPhone

According to a recent report by the Register citing reliable channel sources, exclusive UK iPhone carrier O2 has activated just 26,500 iPhones since its launch two weeks ago, well below expectations of about 100,000 units...

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...es_iphone.html


So... which is it?

Even adjusting upwards to the current article's "Britain's O2 sold between 30,000 and 40,000 iPhones on its first weekend", isn't that still 'well below' expectations of 100,000 units for the UK??

The German results also do not seem strong... only 10K units sold on launch day, compared to 270K units sold in the US during launch weekend? So why then does said RBC analyst seem to be bullish? The French results? The ability of the iPhone to outsell other, older phones during launch? Gosh, you'd think it'd be able to, that's the time of the highest hype and pent-up demand.

In any case, as a shareholder, I'm hoping that Apple does at least okay during launch, once the figures are sorted out. That's the easy part.

Getting and keeping those sales numbers high over the long haul is the real (and difficult) task.

.

[laucala]

Originally Posted by Fotek2001

They may be selling but I've still not seen anyone using one and I live in Central London. If people are buying them, where are they..?

I'm here! Must admit I've not seen anyone else using one yet... but it's possible that many people are hiding them away when in use - when I take mine out in public on, say, a train, I feel the whole carriage straining to have a look

[yama]

I've shown my iPhone to various friends and people at work. Only one of them was concerned about it not being a 3G phone. I honestly think most people in the UK don't give a stuff about how many Gs their phone has, or how many features are listed on the box.

Everyone I've shown it to are most impressed by the user interface - the sheer speed of the response, the animation and how easy it is to use. The pinch zooming and rotation are absolute killers, consistently drawing "oohs" and "aahs" from the audience.

Alas, nobody wants to know once I tell them how much I have to pay each month for the O2 contract. It's a real shame that O2 doesn't offer more flexible contracts, or even a pay-as-you-go option.

A side note: I have started seeing a few people with iPhones on the trains now, usually people commuting in and out of London via Waterloo. iPods and Blackberrys are still more ubiquitous though.

[maxmann]

Originally Posted by laucala

I'm here! Must admit I've not seen anyone else using one yet... but it's possible that many people are hiding them away when in use - when I take mine out in public on, say, a train, I feel the whole carriage straining to have a look

after so many months, i am still surprised every day or two when someone leans over and asks to take a look. The idea that the Iphone with the features presented will not sell in Europe is not a savvy minded viewpoint. Obviously, those who have no idea of consumer electronics marketing will defend what they do know about a competitive product or something of the sort of crap put out by people looking for controversy. but the bottom line is that distribution, product features and company profile all make for a successful launch and sell through. Apple isn't taking over the world with the phone - but they are presenting a nice alternative to feature laden products from competitors - and they are presenting NOW what everyone will expect in the future. Updated the software on your phone lately? how long did it take the dude behind the counter to set up the last one? on and on. these small and significant steps are not so easy to implement from a competitive base that has not been on their toes lately. The motorola razor is the best example of a not well thought out marketing mix. the expected less than 10% of the response that came with the phone? they have no concept of the consumer wants or what makes them tick. Apple is approaching it as a consumer electronics company. This means they are building a customer franchise where brand, innovation and a marketing mix of features with other products all go together in one fancy package. they are not taking over the world of a Nokia.. they are offering an alternative to a market full of piece meal approaches to consumer wants and needs. everyone gets a piece of the action with new innovations - but only a few understand how to make money at it. apple is doing this very very well.

[Guartho]

I live in the US and I have still never seen an iPhone in person. Of course, we don't have AT&T wireless in this area, so that's probably why.

[GQB]

At some point the 'its gonna fail because it doesn't have 3G' crowd is going to have to admit that the iPhone's success or failure will mostly be a function of getting the feature balance right which, I think its becomming clear, Apple has done spectacularly.

Mass sales of the iPhone are going to be primarily driven by good cell phone, iPod and maybe photos. (and of course the primary reason, ease of use of those features.) For most people, web access is far less important than the other 2 or 3, with movie viewing trailing the bunch.

Ease-of-use for web-based features, and battery life far outweigh the marginal difference of 3G. The 'more sophisticated European users' are bearing this out.

I think Apple has gotten the thing amazingly right. They have not let the 'good' fall prey to the 'best'.

[aaarrrgggh]

Originally Posted by GQB

Mass sales of the iPhone are going to be primarily driven by good cell phone, iPod and maybe photos. (and of course the primary reason, ease of use of those features.) For most people, web access is far less important than the other 2 or 3, with movie viewing trailing the bunch.

Ease-of-use for web-based features, and battery life far outweigh the marginal difference of 3G. The 'more sophisticated European users' are bearing this out.

If you are getting an iPhone as a phone first, you are missing the boat entirely; your priorities are completely opposite the real market. It's a phone last-- it is a web browser, mail client, entertainment device first... and it happens to be a great phone as well.

Everybody uses their toys for different things, but what makes the iPhone compelling is doing a great job with the web experience.

Things like battery life just make people hate a phone afterwards, they don't bias people up front.

[RichL]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The iPhone is even outselling Nokia's well-known N95 smartphone, which has sold more than a million units in the UK since its March release, the analyst writes.

I don't think out-selling a year-old phone is much to crow about. Especially considering that iPhone commercials are constantly on TV and all of the stores involved have devoted a lot of floor space to the device. Any device given this much backing should sell a few thousand units.

[GQB]

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh

If you are getting an iPhone as a phone first, you are missing the boat entirely; your priorities are completely opposite the real market. It's a phone last-- it is a web browser, mail client, entertainment device first... and it happens to be a great phone as well.

Everybody uses their toys for different things, but what makes the iPhone compelling is doing a great job with the web experience.

Things like battery life just make people hate a phone afterwards, they don't bias people up front.

We'll agree to disagree. Of the literally dozens of iPhone owners I know well (most of whom are in the tech industry, btw) web access is handy, but given a faster connection (leaving wi-fi aside) or ease-of-use and integration, the latter wins hands down. I've not heard 1 person (outside this forum) complain about access speed.

All I'm saying is that the 'no 3G will sink the product' crowd has been, quite frankly, wrong.
In fact, had Apple included it in generation 1, that would have endangered the product far more.

Just saying Apple got it right.

[aegisdesign]

Does this analyst do standup at The Comedy Store too?

Even going off the most optimistic of the estimates in the article Apple didn't sell more than 200,000 in it's launch month in Europe and ongoing it's selling 14,000 a week (at best) in Germany. That's terrible. 2 phones a day in each store.

The Nokia N95 sold 1.5million in the summer quarter. It's in their Q2 financials. There's a banner advert on this very site advertising it as FREE including 8GB, 800 minutes, unlimited texts, GPS data for £40.

LG Prada???? Why would anyone buy that when you can get an LG Viewty for £29?

HTC Touch? - it's a year out of date. Try a Tytan or Touch Dual if you really want a WinMo geek toy or one of the many rebages. If the analyst actually paid attention to the UK market though, WinMo is in single digit territory for phones. We buy Symbian here.

He got one thing right, 3G won't make much difference. You've got to get past the cost of the handset and tariffs first.

[TenoBell]

There are a few facts that muddy the waters with iPhone sales. Europe already had more advanced phones than we had in the US. So the iPhone had less of a market to sell well in Europe as it did in the US.

The iPod Touch coming to market right before I'm sure also hurt sales of the iPhone.

But I would agree the most damning factor is the carrier tariff. If I had to get an iPhone in Europe I would hesitate to agree to that deal.

But having said all of that it is selling. People are in a rush to call it a failure because it isn't decisively blowing every other phone away in sales. In reality that was never going to happen.

[jbelkin]

Analysts or a lot of journalists don't get it because they twiddle with it for 3 minutes - sure a Zune or Creative is like an ipod or a Moto or a Nokia seems to have the same features as an iPhone but actual longer than 10-minute useability?

That's where the iPod/iPhone wins hands down.

And not to be rude, most 22 year old journalists don't make that money so to them, $400-$600 to spend on a phone is like 500 Pabst Blue Ribbon beers or a huge % of their monthly wages while for most of us, it's about a day or two's pay so really, not that big of a deal if it's what we want.

Bottom line: iPhone's 30 features can ALL be accessed with a tap or two versus trying to access 50 features on any other phone requires menu switching, menus, submenus, guessing at what DSML means and more menus on a low res screen.

And the 3G thing? Would you rather wait 20 seconds on a world class 3.5" high-res screen that orients and is pinch enlargeable or would you rather try and decipher the web in a fixed browser page that takes 9 seconds to load on a low res screen or low res tiny screen? Along with trying to learn a new OS versus tapping and moving your fingers.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Guartho

I live in the US and I have still never seen an iPhone in person. Of course, we don't have AT&T wireless in this area, so that's probably why.

That would explain it.

I've seen a few "in the wild", and I generally don't pay attention.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by aegisdesign

The Nokia N95 sold 1.5million in the summer quarter. It's in their Q2 financials.

That is a very impressive number. Higher than I would have thought. Although, one should keep in mind that it represents sales volume worldwide (at the moment, the iPhone is available only in four countries).

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by aegisdesign

Does this analyst do standup at The Comedy Store too?

Even going off the most optimistic of the estimates in the article, Apple didn't sell more than 200,000 in it's launch month in Europe, and ongoing it's selling 14,000 a week (at best) in Germany. That's terrible. 2 phones a day in each store.

The Nokia N95 sold 1.5million in the summer quarter. It's in their Q2 financials. There's a banner advert on this very site advertising it as FREE including 8GB, 800 minutes, unlimited texts, GPS data for £40.

LG Prada???? Why would anyone buy that when you can get an LG Viewty for £29?

HTC Touch? - it's a year out of date. Try a Tytan or Touch Dual if you really want a WinMo geek toy or one of the many rebages. If the analyst actually paid attention to the UK market though, WinMo is in single digit territory for phones. We buy Symbian here.

He got one thing right, 3G won't make much difference. You've got to get past the cost of the handset and tariffs first.

Unfortunately, I fear you are right.

And yeah, Apple has got to get the cost and plans in line first (otherwise their foot isn't even in the door), and THEN deal with feature-set issues (3G, MMS) if they want the iPhone to do well long-term in Europe. The rest is just whistling in the dark.

The competition in advanced phones is just stronger over there than in the US, and the level of sophistication/expectations of users over there is higher as well.

Of course, Asia makes even Europe seem a bit like the minor leagues in these respects, and that's the next big market to launch in, only a few months away.

.

[darngooddesign]

Makes perfect sense really.

Get worldwide momentum going with the way the phone works and then release a higher spec model for the Asian release. More than enough time will have passed for the upgrade not to piss people off like the price drop did, and since we'll get the same software upgrade its going to feel like we got new phones.

[jragosta]

Originally Posted by aegisdesign

Does this analyst do standup at The Comedy Store too?

Even going off the most optimistic of the estimates in the article Apple didn't sell more than 200,000 in it's launch month in Europe and ongoing it's selling 14,000 a week (at best) in Germany. That's terrible. 2 phones a day in each store.

14,000 per week is 700,000 per year - in Germany alone. Given Apple's projections of 10 M in the first year and a half, that's not bad at all.

Or, 200,000 in the launch month would be 3.6 M in 18 months - or about a third of Apple's worldwide projections. Keep in mind that, at least in the US, sales have not dropped off a lot since the introduction.

Not to mention that the data says that they're outselling all of their direct competitors.

If you expect them to sell as many as the 'free' $29.995 handsets out there, you're dreaming. But they appear to be selling quite well for their target market.

[jragosta]

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh

If you are getting an iPhone as a phone first, you are missing the boat entirely; your priorities are completely opposite the real market. It's a phone last-- it is a web browser, mail client, entertainment device first... and it happens to be a great phone as well.

Everybody uses their toys for different things, but what makes the iPhone compelling is doing a great job with the web experience.

Not for me. I use my iPhone as a phone all the time. I use it for web browsing fairly infrequently.

[TenoBell]

Of course, Asia makes even Europe seem a bit like the minor leagues in these respects, and that's the next big market to launch in, only a few months away.

You need to take a look at the last few posts in the thread about China .

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by jragosta

14,000 per week is 700,000 per year - in Germany alone. Given Apple's projections of 10 M in the first year and a half, that's not bad at all.

Thing is though, that's a launch pace of course, i.e. extremely difficult to maintain.

Or, 200,000 in the launch month would be 3.6 M in 18 months - or about a third of Apple's worldwide projections. Keep in mind that, at least in the US, sales have not dropped off a lot since the introduction.

You certain? For the US launch, they sold 270K iPhones during the three-day launch weekend. That's a 90K per day pace. Obviously, they haven't kept THAT kind of pace up, otherwise Apple would be on target to sell over 30 million iPhones per year in the US alone(!).

Checking the figures, it appears that Apple ended up selling 1.1 million iPhones in the US during calendar Q3. That's more like a 4.4 million units/year pace. Quite good, but nowhere near launch pace.

Not to mention that the data says that they're outselling all of their direct competitors.

Again, during launch, you'd expect them to be able to outsell older phones, since many of the ppl who wanted them already have them. A better comparison might be something like Euro iPhone launch figures vs N95 Euro launch figures, I'd imagine.

If you expect them to sell as many as the 'free' $29.995 handsets out there, you're dreaming. But they appear to be selling quite well for their target market.

I think the jury's still out on that, at best. But I'm hoping. 'Cuz if sales are okay even with the crappy pricing and lack of 3G/MMS, imagine what they'll be if Apple resolves those issues.

...

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

You need to take a look at the last few posts in the thread about China .

You need to be more aware of how tough and demanding the Japanese and South Korean markets are. They're the most advanced in the world. And they're the ones that Apple is really aiming at, for now.

Yep, China has a lot of users. But a lot of them are using CHEAP phones. Per capita income in China (currently running around $2,000/year), is far below that of Japan and S. Korea, even considering only the richer coastal areas. Don't know that you can really expect someone to lay out a couple of month's salary on a phone.

Things may change markedly in a few years, but to do truly well in Asia, seems like Apple will have to do well in Japan and Korea.

Don't fret, though... Apple WILL have a 3G iPhone for the Asian launch. They'd be laughed out of some markets over there if they didn't. They understand that.

...

[TenoBell]

You need to be more aware of how tough and demanding the Japanese and South Korean markets are.

So now we cut Asia down to Japan and S. Korea. From around 1.5 billion potential customers down to around 176 million.

How do you know how demanding the Japan and Korean markets are? Do you study global economics?

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

So now we cut Asia down to Japan and S. Korea. From around 1.5 billion potential customers down to around 176 million.

How do you know how demanding the Japan and Korean markets are? Do you study global economics?

Gosh, Teno, I guess you didn't read my post at all. What matters most to Apple is not how many users, but how many users are wealthy enough to actually AFFORD the iPhone, and who are willing to pay a premium for it over competing products. That's common sense. I mean, we routinely tell people that Apple doesn't aim their $1400 average-selling price Macs at ppl who want $500 laptops, so... how are phones any different?

And yes, Japan and Korea are the most demanding markets in the world, with (by far) the highest rates of 3G penetration (exceeding 50%, or will by the time of the iPhone's Asian launch), and the the most advanced phones in the world. This is both common knowledge and stuff that you can look up, and no one I've met who's heavily into wireless questions it... you can find many thousands of articles confirming it, or just talk to ppl who travel/live there, or have done same yourself. No need for a PhD in global economics.

Let's just say there are some settled issues in wireless, that would be one of them.

But here, I'll help you out a bit:

Asia hints at mobile tech's future
By Marguerite Reardon
Staff writer, CNET News.com (June 1, 2007)
If you want a glimpse of what you'll be doing with your cell phone in two or three years, you don't need a time machine. You simply need to travel to Japan or South Korea.

For years, those two countries have been the world leaders in cell phone technology adoption...

http://www.cnet.com/4520-13387_1-673...l&tag=lwt_more


3G penetration grows to 40% in Japan and South Korea
20 Apr 2006 at 14:28 GMT Timo Poropudas
3G penetration has reached 40 percent in Japan and South Korea. The operators in these countries provide valuable lessons for mobile operators in other regions, according to a new report from.

Mobile operators in Japan and South Korea have consistently led the world in the development of innovative mobile services and technology. They have unrivalled track records of introducing new handset capabilities and services, and they are currently the only markets to achieve mainstream adoption of services delivered by 3G networks.

http://www.mobilemonday.net/news/3g-...nd-south-korea

.

[one9deuce]

aegisdesign, you state that the Nokia N95 is selling way better than the iPhone, and in the very next sentence you refer to an ad that gives away the Nokia for free. Total "sales" of the iPhone would obliterate the Nokia N95 if Apple gave them away with a contract!

[TenoBell]

If you want a glimpse of what you'll be doing with your cell phone in two or three years, you don't need a time machine. You simply need to travel to Japan or South Korea.

I fundamentally disagree with this article. They are more advanced to some degree. But its just as much cultural differences as it is technological advancement. People in the US are not as interested in having swiss army phones. The only technology they list that we don't have in the US is the barcode on the phone.

Perhaps Asians are more honest but I cannot see the barcode being a very popular feature in the US. I cannot think of too many people who would want easy access to their financial life through their phone. Financial institutions would not be thrilled with it either. Phones are easily lost or stolen and anyone can have easy access to your financial life. Phones get hacked and someone can have easy access to your financial life. Their are already serious problems with electronic financial theft we don't need to offer more access.

Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature. Few people in the US care about watching live television on their phone.

We also have gaming on our phones. Its probably more advanced in Asia but there isn't an overwhelming demand for it here.

3G penetration grows to 40% in Japan and South Korea

There are various reasons for 3G adoption in Asia and Europe, its not simply technological advancement.

Japan covers 145,883 square miles with 127 million people.

S. Korea covers 38,492 square miles with 49 million people.

US covers 3,793,079 square miles with 302 million people

The US mobile phone industry began to mature earlier than Japan/Korean markets and is several times larger. Japan/Korea having far less land to cover and a smaller population to service, can adapt to new technology much quicker. The same goes for the countries in Europe.

Its much more difficult and takes more time to change the US mobile infrastructure and equip its population with new handsets. That challenge in accordance with short sightedness from US mobile carriers has put us where we are today.

Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature.

And yet, it has been in Asia. Again, they are generally more accepting of advanced phone features than other markets in the world are. Which completely lines up with what one of the above articles stated, namely:

...and they are currently the only markets to achieve mainstream adoption of services delivered by 3G networks.

There are various reasons for 3G adoption in Asia and Europe, its not simply technological advancement.

You go on to explain why 3G penetration rates in Asia are much higher than in the US and Europe, without disagreeing that it's true. Which is great, since it's a fact that those rates are much higher in Japan and Korea than elsewhere in the world.

Mmm.. okay. Guess we agree then... Asia IS the most advanced wireless market in the world.

The US mobile phone industry began to mature earlier than Japan/Korean markets...

Maybe once upon a time. But not recently. First large commercial 3G network launced in the world? Japan, in January of 2001. We're a couple of years behind them, at least.

Their mobile penetration rates for wireless service (not just 3G) are also quite a bit ahead of the US. Again, we'll get there in a few years.

Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.

Well, purely anecdotal assertions are always to be taken with a grain of salt. But I would agree that cellphone software has never been particularly awesome. It's far from an Asian-only thing, however. Nokia is by far the largest cellphone maker in the world, and they're Finnish. Motorola is No. 3 in the world, and they're American.

I believe the iPhone can do well, even in the most advanced markets in the world, but only if they meet or beat consumer expectations over there. Part of that is software, but part of that is also features.

However, I don't think either of us have much to worry about here. While LG and other Asian makers are beginning the process of catching up to the iPhone in terms of software (look at Verizon's recent LG touchscreen Voyager phone), they aren't there yet, and it will be a long time before they are. The iPhone should still have a significant edge in software and UI over the competition by launch time.

And Apple is no doubt aware of the feature set that's needed to compete over there, and that the consequences for not meeting it are greater than in other markets. They'll have a 3G iPhone ready for the Asian launch. I have a feeling that the Asian launch should be less bumpy than the European one has apparently been.

...

[TenoBell]

Asia IS the most advanced wireless market in the world.

The article said that Asia points the way to what US mobile phones will be like and I disagree with that. To call where they are technologically advanced is to some degree subjective. The US and Asia are not completely interested in the same features.

How that leads back to the iPhone. I agree the iPhone will need to offer enough of the features that they really want in Asia. But the Asian Achilles heel is software design they are terrible at it. There are a few million people in Asia who will appreciate a phone with superior software design and functionality as much as gimmicky gadgetry.

Apple's expectation isn't for the iPhone to out sell every phone dominating the worlds mobile markets.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

The article said that Asia points the way to what US mobile phones will be like and I disagree with that.

Feel free, your opinion is your own. But it isn't just one article you're disagreeing with, its many thousands of articles and the general consensus in the industry and among its analysts.

I think some of what you're mistaking as a 'difference' between the markets (though differences exist) is actually time lag and/or implementation. Mobile TV will be more popular in the US once performance and reliability is improved and the prices come down (the US market in general is pretty price-sensitive). Our high-speed network coverage is spottier. The Asian implementations to this point have been generally better.

Paying for things via cellphone is also something that may be inevitable in the US, i.e. is only a matter of time, regardless of the downsides (hacking, etc). It may not ever be as popular as it is in Asia, but we'll be seeing it here, that's for sure.

How that leads back to the iPhone. I agree the iPhone will need to offer enough of the features that they really want in Asia. But the Asian Achilles heel is software design they are terrible at it.

Again, its not so much as Asian thing as it is a 'cellphone maker' thing. Nokia and Motorola combined are around 50 percent of the worldwide cellphone market, and neither is Asian.

.

[TenoBell]

But it isn't just one article you're disagreeing with, its many thousands of articles and the general consensus in the industry and among its analysts.

Analysts said it was a good idea for Time Warner and AOL to merge. We see how that turned out.

I think some of what you're mistaking as a 'difference' between the markets (though differences exist) is actually time lag and/or implementation. Mobile TV will be more popular in the US once performance and reliability is improved and the prices come down (the US market in general is pretty price-sensitive).

Anything is possible but I just don't see the evidence. This prediction works on the assumption that people will want it just because its there.

Again my own anecdotal observation but mobile TV have been around for years. I've never really seen anyone say "wow you can watch TV on your phone". Its a gimmick we in the US are not impressed with.

We are much more into playing music than we are television.

Paying for things via cellphone is also something that may be inevitable in the US, i.e. is only a matter of time, regardless of the downsides (hacking, etc). It may not ever be as popular as it is in Asia, but we'll be seeing it here, that's for sure.

I don't see how it is inevitable. Its not anything anyone is asking for. It doesn't solve inherent problems we have in exchanging currency for goods or services. It offers more problems such as how would we realistically, reliably, and safely implement it.

It would only be something to do just because you can.

Again, its not so much as Asian thing as it is a 'cellphone maker' thing.

In the back of my mind I was also thinking of other consumer electronics from Asia. Video and photography equipment. They all have bad software.

But be that as it may the iPhone offers improvement.

[clockwork-master]

Originally Posted by TBaggins

You need to be more aware of how tough and demanding the Japanese and South Korean markets are. They're the most advanced in the world. And they're the ones that Apple is really aiming at, for now.

Yep, China has a lot of users. But a lot of them are using CHEAP phones. Per capita income in China (currently running around $2,000/year), is far below that of Japan and S. Korea, even considering only the richer coastal areas. Don't know that you can really expect someone to lay out a couple of month's salary on a phone.

Things may change markedly in a few years, but to do truly well in Asia, seems like Apple will have to do well in Japan and Korea.

Don't fret, though... Apple WILL have a 3G iPhone for the Asian launch. They'd be laughed out of some markets over there if they didn't. They understand that.

...

Well, typical statement from one who is not living in Asia. Lots of them in China are using cheap phones, but the really hairy bit is that the typical China Consumer will want to pay top dollar for REAL products especially luxury goods. And besides, the number of people who have the money to spend on a iPhone and want to do so in China is well, enough to hit the 10M Target in one country alone. (Or maybe less if you consider the number of unlocked US sets floating arround and fake goods) As for a 3G phone for an Asian lanuch, it depends of where. If China, no 3G, Japan and Korea yes... everywhere else not really. But seriously, any one want to take a guess on which country in Asia will have the iPhone first?

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

A popular iPhone in Europe could also result in a "halo" that translates to increased sales for the Mac on the continent, according to the report.

Let's hope it leads to some fucking Apple stores here too!

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by clockwork-master

But seriously, any one want to take a guess on which country in Asia will have the iPhone first?

Good question (and good points).

I don't think it will be either Japan or Korea!

[aegisdesign]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

That is a very impressive number. Higher than I would have thought. Although, one should keep in mind that it represents sales volume worldwide (at the moment, the iPhone is available only in four countries).

I'm not sure they did release it worldwide back in the summer though. IIRC it wasn't released in the USA until much later. Anyway, just think it's doubtful that the iPhone is outselling the N95 or will continue to after the first few weeks rush, not with the deals you get now on the old N95.

Originally Posted by darngooddesign

Makes perfect sense really.

Get worldwide momentum going with the way the phone works and then release a higher spec model for the Asian release. More than enough time will have passed for the upgrade not to piss people off like the price drop did, and since we'll get the same software upgrade its going to feel like we got new phones.

I've no sympathy for people whining that their toy has been 'made obsolete' by a new model. It happens all the time with other phone manufacturers so why shouldn't it happen with the iPhone?

Originally Posted by TBaggins

'Cuz if sales are okay even with the crappy pricing and lack of 3G/MMS, imagine what they'll be if Apple resolves those issues.

I'm really hoping sales suck in Europe and Apple/the carriers do a number of things to rectify that, not least of which is reducing the prices to sensible levels.

Originally Posted by TenoBell

So now we cut Asia down to Japan and S. Korea. From around 1.5 billion potential customers down to around 176 million.

Incidentally we Brits think of Asia as being mostly India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan which I note rarely get included in the US definition of Asia, which is mostly Eastern Asia. With a population bigger than China, you should perhaps include that in your definition of Asia.

Originally Posted by one9deuce

aegisdesign, you state that the Nokia N95 is selling way better than the iPhone, and in the very next sentence you refer to an ad that gives away the Nokia for free. Total "sales" of the iPhone would obliterate the Nokia N95 if Apple gave them away with a contract!

Yes it most certainly would but Apple are not giving them away. They're completely bucking the market here by charging a huge scad of cash instead.

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Phones from ATT, Verizon, and Sprint have had live television technology for years now and it has not been a big selling feature. Few people in the US care about watching live television on their phone.

We also have gaming on our phones. Its probably more advanced in Asia but there isn't an overwhelming demand for it here.

I'd guess it's got something to do with transport too. In Japan and Europe, we commute by public transport more (though still not enough IMHO). In the US, you're wedded to your cars. That quite possibly has quite an effect on phone usage patterns and features used. I think, disregarding the bizarre pricing scheme in the USA, that also partly explains Europe and Asia's love affair with texting, which you can do on a train without being disrespectful to your fellow passengers.

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Every phone I've owned since I've had a mobile phone was made in Asia. And they all had abysmal software design and user interface layout. That is the difference the iPhone will offer Asian customers.

That's something else I've noticed, in the USA you're much more likely to use 'Asian' brands like LG, Honda and the like in all walks of life. It's no wonder there's such a low opinion of phones in the USA when the top brands are LG or your own Motorola.

In context it makes the success of the iPhone in the USA look easy as it had little competition.

Originally Posted by TenoBell

In the back of my mind I was also thinking of other consumer electronics from Asia. Video and photography equipment. They all have bad software.

Back in a former life I wrote compiler software for Japanese companies (NEC, IBM Japan, Mitsubishi, Fujitsu and more) which they rebadged as their own and had many conversations with Japanese programming counterparts. The Japanese do technology extremely well and can copy things and improve on them. eg. NEC taking the 8088 in the late 70s and producing the V20. What they aren't good at is original technology ideas and creating. This shows up the most in their software IME which whilst usually having zero bugs, will usually also have a terrible design.

[Tailpipe]

I think many of the above comments are spot on.

I just bought a UK iPhone. I cannot believe (a) how easy it was to set-up, (b) how easy it is to use, and (c) what a delight the user interface is. It is like a piece of technology from the 25th Century just landed in my lap. It is jaw-droppingly brilliant, a work of pure genius.

It is worth getting this phone simply for its touch screen. Once you get used to typing messages using the keyboard, you'll soon find that you can do it faster than with a Blackberry.

I had the whole thing up and running within ten minutes of opening the box. It sucked up all my contact data, calendar appointments, email settings and other stuff from Outlook without a single glitch. How did they do that? The more I use Apple stuff, the more I realise how much time I've wasted with Windows-based PCs gobbledy-gook over the years. Setting up any Apple product seems to be such a no-brainer, you only need to focus on the tasks you bought it to accomplish.

The four primary functions are excellent: phone, email, web and iPod. Internet connection speeds aren't blazingly fast, but once you get to the web page you want, the ability of the touch screen to zoom in or out makes reading text and viewing images very easy. In fact, no other handheld machine provides a better web experience. Period.

All of the other stuff that comes with it such as the camera, stock prices, weather, clock and Google maps just adds to the overall quality of the user experience.

Anybody who thinks the nokia N95 is better obviously hasn't tried both.

If this is Apple's first effort to produce a smart phone, God help the competition when the next version comes out. Sell your shares in Nokia and Motorola immediately. So in case you're is still wondering whether to buy one of these machines, trust me when I say you won't be disappointed. But don't take my word, see for yourself.

Given the high cost of an iPhone, O2 is gaining new customers almost exclusively to the detriment of Vodafone. Having just migrated from Vodafone to O2 myself, I must say that if anyone from Vodafone is reading this: you guys need to kick yourselves for not beating down Apple's door to get the contract. Your top management must be nuts. unfortunately greed got in the way of customer service. As Julia Roberts said in Pretty Woman: That was a huge mistake!

[JakeBarnes]

It doesn't surprise me that German iPhone sales are soft; Germans tend to look for good bargains, and aren't SO concerned with status symbols.

I predict the Italian launch will be HUGE, despite price. I've spent a lot of time in Italy, and Italians overall are simply the most fashion-conscious people in Western Europe (I mean this in a good way); they also LOVE their cell phones and use them as much as fashion statements as communication devices (though that gets a good workout there too).

Obviously I'm speaking in broad strokes here, but wait and see.