First year Apple TV sales fall below expectations

***AppleInsider*** · 12-10-2007, 04:18 PM

Introduced last year as the DVD player of the future, Apple Inc.'s $299 Apple TV set-top-box has thus far been anything but a hit with consumers, says one market research firm, which estimates that first year sales have fallen well short of initial expectations.

Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research predicted back in May that Apple loyalists would help fuel sales of 1 million of the devices by the end the year. However, the firm is now pointing to a failed iTunes video revolution as doing its part to help stifle adoption amongst consumers.

“In addition to the 400,000 Apple TV units we estimate Apple has sold thus far, the company will be lucky to sell another 400,000 in the year-end holiday rush, short of our one million estimate,” said analyst James McQuivey. "Unfortunately, the same lack of interest in iTunes video will mean the iPhone and the iPod touch have less video momentum to ride.”

According to Forrester, nearly half of all adults with access to the Internet say they have heard of the Apple TV. However, only about 5 percent of those people familiar with the product say they've read up on it via Apple's website or took one for a spin at the company's retail stores.

In fact, Forrester claims that just 3 percent of online adults intend to purchase an Apple TV in the future -- essentially the same percentage of iLife users who eventually purchase one of Apple's standalone Jam Packs for GarageBand.

In a report last week, McQuivey warned executives of the Cupertino-based company that it was in their best interest to "win NBC back" as an iTunes partner if they had any hopes of replicating their success in music with digital video.

"Don't let the Macgeeks posting angry blogs against NBC fool you," McQuivey wrote in a report last Monday following the television network's pull-out from iTunes. "The loser here is Apple, which relies on NBC Universal to deliver 30 (percent) of video download sales. Any supposed backlash against NBC will not materialize because NBC has made its content available, for free, on NBC.com and six other major portals sites."

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

roehlstation · 12-10-2007, 04:33 PM

Too many limitations,

Unfortunately, the Apple TV is completing with Media Center, and for whatever reasons Apple TV doesn't have all the features people want. I can only imagine these limitations placed on them by external forces for them NOT to have some sort of DVR built into it. Adding that feature would have sold me on it for sure.

tink · 12-10-2007, 04:40 PM

Add some Tivo intigration, Tivo to go like and some recording / capturing feature. One shop stop.

dylan3d · 12-10-2007, 04:40 PM

Apple TV is is an incomplete idea. It needs dvr functionality, cable card slot/s, and 1080P to make it a product that consumers will truly understand.

machole · 12-10-2007, 04:41 PM

The state of the AppleTV is 100% due to Apple failing to give a crap about it. Sure, it's a tough sell considering this is basically a BYOS (Bring Your Own Screen) iPod. But did they even try doing what was necessary to make this thing enticing to anyone other than the highest level of Mac enthusiasts?

While I love the things it CAN do, I absolutely hate it for what it CAN'T. And with the Xbox 360 now offering DivX/XviD support then not only does the Xbox give us total codec support, it also plays games.

I have no interest in being a "gamer" but I'm very tempted to selli the AppleTV and buy an Xbox purely for streaming video. Heck, it beats being a guinea pig for what Apple deems to be a dead "hobby".

(Yes, I've tried unlocking it but for weeks I've gotten nowhere. Maybe Apple should just quit being so tight with these ignored products and just unlock the darn thing so it can do what it's capable of doing.)

Elmo151 · 12-10-2007, 04:41 PM

I have one but don't find myself using it very often.
I have a decent stereo system and it's an easy way to play music .
Visitors love looking at full screen photos. Every visitor thinks it's incredible.

Would I buy it again? Yes!

What's missing:
...HDTV

macinthe408 · 12-10-2007, 04:46 PM

I considered the Apple TV. For about 10 seconds. And then I sold my Series2 TiVo's and got me some HD Series3 lovin' going on in my bedroom (TiVo HD) and living room (Series 3 HD).

With Amazon Unbox and the new offerings TiVo keeps rolling out (Music Choice, DesktopToGo, etc.), the Apple TV fades further and further away in the rearview mirror of choices.

**melgross** · 12-10-2007, 04:48 PM

I agree with this. I've been saying the same thing. Apple hasn't done anything with the ATv to make its purchase meaningful. They did increase the size of the HDD, and update the firmware, but that's not much.

They also have to learn to play nice with their content suppliers, like it or not.

My wife buys the occasional show. But, in some cases, she now watches the commercially sponsored versions, as they are not on iTunes. Whether we are happy about it or not, people are used to watching commercials. If they can learn to do that with internet offerings, then the pay sites, like iTunes, will have a hard time of it.

I think we can all suspect that the other Tv companies are closely watching what is happening with NBC, and Universal. If they look to be making a success of it, Apple might see more follow their example. And, actually, some of the companies who do sell content on iTunes are already following their example.

Apple better get its ass in gear. What they have to understand, is that internet sales are still a very small portion of the content company's total income. While that remains true, they can experiment, and leave, with little loss to themselves. If Apple sees its way to understanding their needs, sales may rise to the point where they can't as easily leave.

As these companies are either charging no more than Apple is, or offering content for free, ad supported or not, we can see that price is not really the entire issue—control is. no business wants to have its pricing controlled by its retailers. It just doesn't happen.

Clive At Five · 12-10-2007, 04:49 PM

Hmm let's see what went wrong here...

iTunes video is low-quality & too expensive. Plus watching video is more of a commitment than listening to music. It requires your attention, unlike music. Not to mention that a TV show lasts 22 minutes or more, whereas a song lasts roughly 4 minutes. For this reason, it's unrealistic for people to want to own video, as there's less time to watch it. Renting is the obvious answer to this problem. Cheaper and less committal.

Then there's aTV. TOO DAMN EXPENSIVE! For that price it should have a DVD player, and/or DVR. I know those technologies compete with the iTS, but it would still mean extra $$ in Apple's pocket. With the iTS video aisle the way it is, I'd say screw it and include these technologies. If Apple had a DVR that could capture and export to iTunes quickly and easily, so that you could upload to your iPhone or iPod........ now THAT would be a technology worth purchasing.

aTV and the iTS video section are both failures in my eyes.

I would've liked to have had an aTV too... except I'm resorting to a Mini so I can have DVR.

-Clive

bdkennedy1 · 12-10-2007, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by machole

The state of the AppleTV is 100% due to Apple failing to give a crap about it.

I couldn't agree more. I've had my Apple TV since it was released, and I've seen hardly an effort put into this device. The last activity we've had from Apple is when they added YouTube on June 20. Big f-deal. Trying to use YouTube with the Apple remote is like trying to chew without teeth.

I've rarely watched a movie all the way through without having to get up and reset something. My Mac will lose the connection, or the Apple TV will lose the connection, or error messages such as the media is not readable when it is.

It's one of Apple's pet projects they use to test the waters with, like .Mac. Fortunately I only spent $200.

Since Apple has basically created a dumpster baby with the Mac Mini and Apple TV. I'm confident they will release a product that combines both, since it would be stupid to give up on streaming media.

And frankly, I don't mind going to NBC and ABC's web site to watch a show I missed. TV networks posting their shows for free on their web sites is just common sense.

kresh · 12-10-2007, 04:53 PM

Why does AI keep posting this Apple Bashing tripe from a known Apple Bashing hate group?

Let's see, they pulled an arbitrary number out of their ass and now they jump all over Apple because they didn't meet this number?

How freaking simplistic can you be?

Edit: Why don't we revisit Forrester and their past fiascos? Anyone remember the doom and gloom that Itunes was dead? This group has less than Zero credibility!

**melgross** · 12-10-2007, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

Hmm let's see what went wrong here...

iTunes video is low-quality & too expensive. Plus watching video is more of a commitment than listening to music. It requires your attention, unlike music. Not to mention that a TV show lasts 22 minutes or more, whereas a song lasts roughly 4 minutes. For this reason, it's unrealistic for people to want to own video, as there's less time to watch it. Renting is the obvious answer to this problem. Cheaper and less committal.

Then there's aTV. TOO DAMN EXPENSIVE! For that price it should have a DVD player, and/or DVR. I know those technologies compete with the iTS, but it would still mean extra $$ in Apple's pocket. With the iTS video aisle the way it is, I'd say screw it and include these technologies. If Apple had a DVR that could capture and export to iTunes quickly and easily, so that you could upload to your iPhone or iPod........ now THAT would be a technology worth purchasing.

aTV and the iTS video section are both failures in my eyes.

I would've liked to have had an aTV too... except I'm resorting to a Mini so I can have DVR.

-Clive

Yeah, I'm surprised that Apple hasn't already upgraded this thing. Maybe we'll see something at Macworld.

Apple is too stuck on what it wants everyone to do, rather than seeing what everyone wants to do. Trying to force everyone to iTunes is not working for video. If they can't see that, they are in trouble.

**melgross** · 12-10-2007, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kresh

Why does AI keep posting this Apple Bashing tripe from a known Apple Bashing hate group?

Let's see, they pulled an arbitrary number out of their ass and now they jump all over Apple because they didn't meet this number?

How freaking simplistic can you be?

It isn't Apple bashing, it's reality. Most of us here can see that.

solipsism · 12-10-2007, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

In addition to the 400,000 Apple TV units we estimate Apple has sold thus far, the company will be lucky to sell another 400,000 in the year-end holiday rush
...
Forrester claims that just 3 percent of online adults intend to purchase an Apple TV in the future

That sound pretty good to me. How many TiVos have been sold in that time frame? It seems obvious that Apple released the AppleTV prior to the movies appearing on iTunes Store to give an example of what AppleJust wait until the movie content is there, especially if rentals are permitted.

Quote:

Originally Posted by roehlstation

Too many limitations,

Unfortunately, the Apple TV is completing with Media Center, and for whatever reasons Apple TV doesn't have all the features people want. I can only imagine these limitations placed on them by external forces for them NOT to have some sort of DVR built into it. Adding that feature would have sold me on it for sure.

Windows Media Center? That is much pricer option and using the 360 is only a solution for gamers who are somewhat technically savvy.

As for a DVR, I only foresee that happening if and when the other major television studios back out of iTunes. For Apple to add a DVR would kill a good deal of the iTunes store videos thereby stunting iTunes Store downloads even more when Apple is already struggling to get movie studios on board and pissing off the television studios, including Disney.

PS: WHo is going to incorrectly state that the AppleTV can only output in low-def?

DeaPeaJay · 12-10-2007, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by appleinsider

However, the firm is now pointing to a failed iTunes video revolution as doing its part to help stifle adoption amongst consumers.

How is iTunes' bad quality video a revolution?

nagromme · 12-10-2007, 04:58 PM

Translated:

Forrester Research says that Apple TV sales fall below Forrester Research predictions.

Apple TV was never meant to be a huge tidal wave--it's a strategic piece that Apple needed to offer BEFORE demand for such functionality was significant. (A strategic piece that has nothing to do with DVR. A product isn't a failure just because only a small number of people want it, nor because YOU don't want it. That's like saying there shouldn't be an iPod Classic because more people want a Nano. Apple TV is simply an option the iTunes ecosystem needs to have for completeness. You could just as easily say that iPod-to-TV adapters are a failure because more than 50% of people don't need them. Well, they're a great option if you need them, and no harm done if you don't.)

Yes, the move into downloadable video has been slow--for all companies. That's not a "failure." The movie and TV industries will drag their feet at all costs. There's no one partner--not even NBC--that Apple needs to stay afloat. There's room for multiple solutions, and just because iTunes isn't the only one (merely the largest) doesn't make iTunes video a flop.

Apple TV is not the last step, but the first. Forrester Research's "predictions" that focus on a tiny piece of a bigger picture don't mean much.

BTW, some commentary here on the supposed Apple TV "failure:"

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/0...e-facts-wrong/

DeaPeaJay · 12-10-2007, 04:59 PM

People need to stop thinking about it like an amazing Apple product. It's no more of an amazing apple product than the Airport Extreme is. It's an accessory for viewing your digital content on your TV.

kresh · 12-10-2007, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by melgross

It isn't Apple bashing, it's reality. Most of us here can see that.

Well, I've seen, what, about 6 of you posting about how bad it is, and none of you own one.

I do own an AppleTV, the small 40GB one. I don't store anything on it, as I stream everything from a Mac Mini to it.

I've ripped about 200 movies from DVD's using 720x4xx settings and it's absolutely amazing on my 46" LCD TV. (Not to mention about 7 HD Podcasts, all my other video and audio podcasts) It's so good in fact that 3 others in my family have purchased one, as well as 6 or 7 friends of mine.

It's the non-owning, paper spec queens, that keep saying it's a failure.

anantksundaram · 12-10-2007, 05:02 PM

For Forrester Research report to pin the lack of success of @TV on lack of NBC is silly. As is their plea to Apple to ignore the 'Macgeeks' (oxymoron?). Neither has anything to to do with its lack of success.

As has been pointed out repeatedly on forums such as these right from the get-go, it is the product itself that is wanting. (For instance, if it could wirelessly receive video signals from the computer -- which, of course, would require it to be made independent of iTunes -- then someone could watch NBC from hulu-or-whatever.com).

It sounds a lot to me a like a market research firm CYA-ing because of its own flawed predictions.

DeaPeaJay · 12-10-2007, 05:02 PM

The AppleTV is too early for it's time. Nobody can tell me that in 10-15 years we're all going to have shelves and shelves of blu-ray or HD DVD movies that we have to put into a machine to read. Do you know how long it's been since I touched an audio CD? Eventually video will get to the same stage as audio currently is, with a rental model thrown in. As soon as iTunes gets HD content, I wouldn't be surprised if it kills Bluray and HD-DVD. Or severely hurts them anyway.

MacWorld 08! *crosses fingers*

chameleon · 12-10-2007, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by machole

The state of the AppleTV is 100% due to Apple failing to give a crap about it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dylan3d

Apple TV is is an incomplete idea. It needs dvr functionality, cable card slot/s, and 1080P to make it a product that consumers will truly understand.

These two posts have it right. It's not shocking that the

TV hasn't exploded. Apple hasn't done nearly anything to promote it. It sits in the corner of the Apple Store without much fanfare. Advertising has been virtually nothing, and it hasn't been updated in what seems like forever.

Also, it's lacking some major features that really hurt it.

HD Content. Those crummy little 640 videos from iTunes don't look great on a 42" Plasma. You clearly intend for the TV to be used with an HD set, so give me HD content.
Direct iTunes integration without a PC or Mac. Why do I need to keep a computer running when I want to load the TV? If my iPhone can purchase content from the iTunes store directly, the TV should be able to also.
Full Dolby Support. No excuse.
DVD Drive w/ BTO Blu-Ray Option. No one wants to add one more device to their Home Theater setup. It just means more space, more power, more heat, and another damned remote. Make this the one device. If I can get rid of the DVD player and just use the TV, that makes my life easier, and it makes the product more compelling. Hell, a DVD drive must be about $8 in parts. Slap it in there. If you want Blu-Ray, pay $200 more. At least give us options.
More content and Movie Rentals. This is the tough one. The iTunes store is struggling to find enough Movie content. That doesn't help the TV. It would be great if you could just order a movie right through the device, have it download and start playing within 5 minutes, or have it download and sit ready for you when you actually have time to view it.

I think this device has a place, and could be a big seller, it just needs more focus.

anantksundaram · 12-10-2007, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kresh

Well, I've seen, what, about 6 of you posting about how bad it is, and none of you own one.

Ummm..... there is a reason that those who are posting "how bad it is" don't own one. Cause-and-effect sort of thing......

teckstud · 12-10-2007, 05:06 PM

There is no Apple bashing on this item- agreed. AppleTV is a FRK'N LEMON! I should know -I bought one. If ever there was a class action suit in the making - it's for this product. It doesn't do anything but draw enough heat to make a cheese melt sandwich. We still don't know what the USB port is for on the back! Come on Apple- what is it for???? It has a completely useless hard drive that you can't even use in disk mode- WHY? It could have been used for Time Machine-Apple's version of an external hard drive at least- hello?? What a waste. And Apple is the loser with the NBC pullout too- 100%. The television film moguls were getting sucked into a prixfix deal like the dumb music industry and they called Steve Job's bluff. Apple used the music industry to help drive the iPod to where it is today yet keep calling the music industry greedy in the process- LOL. The film/TV industry showed them they weren't going to do it twice. And who lost. The consumers who bought the Apple TV. I want a rebate - you can take it back, thank you.

Eriamjh · 12-10-2007, 05:08 PM

There is one solution: Apple TV and Mac mini become one machine.

Boom.

kresh · 12-10-2007, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Ummm..... there is a reason that those who are posting "how bad it is" don't own one. Cause-and-effect sort of thing......

Yeah I understand, thus my "Paper Spec Queen" comment

edit: What I mean by that is because all the complaints are based on trying to shoehorn the AppleTV into something it's not. Kind of like buying a houseboat and expecting to set the world's record for speed on water. Some of us just want a house boat

nagromme · 12-10-2007, 05:10 PM

Movie rentals are definitely needed. Some rumors say Apple has been at work on that, and I hope so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by teckstud

There is no Apple bashing on this item- agreed. AppleTV is a FRK'N LEMON! I should know -I bought one. If ever there was a class action suit in the making - it's for this product.

What exactly did Apple tell you it would do, that it did not do? It sounds like you bought it for the USB port (?) which Apple clearly stated was only for diagnostic use. Or maybe you bought it on rumors that never came true?

As for Apple's iPod success being from the music industry, well.. obviously. But not through iTunes Music Store: most of the music on iPods is from CD, not downloads. Are CD player makers also picking on the poor, defenseless music industry who only wants to jack up prices to benefit the world?

tadunne · 12-10-2007, 05:11 PM

This is what apple needs to do..

1) Use the basis of the ipod/touch platform (cpu and os) to create a new version of the Apple TV which pretty much the same as the ipod touch hardware wise except for a better H.264 decoding to cope with 720p. Don't have much storage space and rely on streaming. This should reduce the cost of the unit.

2)Sell this for $150 (as it's basically an ipod touch without the screen or flash ram)

3)Start selling and renting HD movies/TV shows on itunes and allow the new apple TV to purchase these directly from the box and stored on a connected computer

4)Allow the iphone/ipod touch to become the same device via a more advanced dock that sells for $75

5)Sell a NAS device that can act as a wireless itunes server that users of ipods/apple tvs can wirelessly sync their data from/to

Wally · 12-10-2007, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kresh

Well, I've seen, what, about 6 of you posting about how bad it is, and none of you own one.

I do own an AppleTV, the small 40GB one. I don't store anything on it, as I stream everything from a Mac Mini to it.

I've ripped about 200 movies from DVD's using 720x4xx settings and it's absolutely amazing on my 46" LCD TV. (Not to mention about 7 HD Podcasts, all my other video and audio podcasts) It's so good in fact that 3 others in my family have purchased one, as well as 6 or 7 friends of mine.

It's the non-owning, paper spec queens, that keep saying it's a failure.

Couldn't agree more. I held off buying one after seeing the demo in the Mac store. The demo movie they had playing (the Incredibles) looked pretty bad resolution-wise. Then after reading up on what others were doing (handbraking their movies etc.) I bought one. It has been awesome. I handbrake all my movies and the quality is excellent. I honestly don't see the difference between my aTV and my up-rezzing DVD player on my 46" 1080p philips.

My only super-pet-peev is the lack of discrete audio channels - that I can tell the difference in. Fortunately it's not as noticeable as a resolution problem is, but hopefully that will be something upgraded in the future. (don't mv4's hold discrete channels?)

Anyhow, I would definitely buy it again as I have successfully been able to retire my DVD player.

PhotoMacUser · 12-10-2007, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kresh

Well, I've seen, what, about 6 of you posting about how bad it is, and none of you own one.

I do own an AppleTV, the small 40GB one. I don't store anything on it, as I stream everything from a Mac Mini to it.

I've ripped about 200 movies from DVD's using 720x4xx settings and it's absolutely amazing on my 46" LCD TV. (Not to mention about 7 HD Podcasts, all my other video and audio podcasts) It's so good in fact that 3 others in my family have purchased one, as well as 6 or 7 friends of mine.

It's the non-owning, paper spec queens, that keep saying it's a failure.

I have the 160 gig version and the Airport Extreme as well. This thing is amazing. I love that I can copy all my iTunes Music, Videos and sync iPhoto albums onto it, but also stream from content on any of my computers. The quality is "good" about equal to VHS or better.

The main feature missing is the ability to purchase movies direct from iTunes- like you can purchase music using iPhone and the Wi-Fi iTunes store. Rentals would be a tremendous plus as well. This is a really cool device that is here a little before its time I am afraid. I think Steve Jobs had planned to roll out video iTunes rentals at least six months ago. Let's see what happens in January.

MoparSteve · 12-10-2007, 05:14 PM

I still wish the Apple TV was more like an enhanced mini, why not have the media hub be the main server of the media instead of having to keep you main computer on and able to stream when you want to watch your content. Add EyeTV (&/or cable card slot) and you have your DVR setup. Adding a BlueRay drive too is even better.

I didn't buy my video iPod with the notion that I would be filling it with media I bought from iTunes. 99% of the video I have loaded on my iPod is either ripped from DVDs that I own, or shows I recorded off EyeTV. TV episode prices will need to come down substantially for me to buy online, when recording it is so easy. Even if I miss an episode, it'll be rerun before too long. Online movie prices will need to come down substantially less than that of a dvd before I go there. I can't think of a single movie where I couldn't wait to make a trip to the store. Video iPods will sell even without the iTunes video store. The iTunes music store is a different story. That fills a need I've been looking for, for a very long time.

BRussell · 12-10-2007, 05:15 PM

The lack of success of the AppleTV has nothing to do with its hardware, it has to do with the iTunes store videos. The selection is relatively poor, there are no rentals, and the resolution isn't good enough for big-screen TV viewing. Change those things, but don't change the AppleTV hardware or functionality, and you've got a hit with AppleTV.

teckstud · 12-10-2007, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nagromme

What exactly did Apple tell you it would do, that it did not do?

Not what it would do but in what it would have- and that is content to purchase and play as in NBC shows- comprendez?

nagromme · 12-10-2007, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BRussell

The lack of success of the AppleTV has nothing to do with its hardware, it has to do with the iTunes store videos. The selection is relatively poor, there are no rentals, and the resolution isn't good enough for big-screen TV viewing. Change those things, but don't change the AppleTV hardware or functionality, and you've got a hit with AppleTV.

Exactly. AppleTV is an accessory for a video venture that is still in its infancy (and wouldn't even be THAT far without Apple). Should Apple have waited until after the revolution is complete and THEN offer a way to get video to TV? Of course not. They have to offer it first. And that means, at first, that very few people will need it. The story is not over in 12 months, and was never intended to be.

Quote:

Originally Posted by teckstud

Not what it would do but in what it would have- and that is content to purchase and play as in NBC shows- comprendez?

Your believed Apple was making a promise to you about future NBC shows? Sounds like you made a misguided purchase--there was no such promise, nor could there ever have been. The promise that WAS made was that NBC shows you bought would keep playing. And they will.

More content will come. Nothing Apple can do would make that happen overnight. Not at a price anyone would want. You'd still be calling for class action suits if Apple let the TV industry price their content unreasonably. Remember: the TV and music industries are stuck in the past. They don't want future sales as much as they want present power and a lack of change. They want things to stay the same. They are not the good guys and Apple is not the bad guys.

kresh · 12-10-2007, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BRussell

The lack of success of the AppleTV has nothing to do with its hardware, it has to do with the iTunes store videos. The selection is relatively poor, there are no rentals, and the resolution isn't good enough for big-screen TV viewing. Change those things, but don't change the AppleTV hardware or functionality, and you've got a hit with AppleTV.

How should we define successful? Forrester guestimates 400K (up to 800K) units sold in a year. Is that a failure? Even if all 400K units were the 40GB units, that's $120 Million USD in sales.

I am guessing that Forrester is off by more than 50%, my guess is as good as theirs

teckstud · 12-10-2007, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nagromme

Movie rentals are definitely needed. Some rumors say Apple has been at work on that, and I hope so.

As for Apple's iPod success being from the music industry, well.. obviously. But not through iTunes Music Store

Sorry- Wrong! If you buy a song from iTunes you are locked into buying iPods unless you convert it into another format and then rip it again to your hard drive.

**JeffDM** · 12-10-2007, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeaPeaJay

As soon as iTunes gets HD content, I wouldn't be surprised if it kills Bluray and HD-DVD. Or severely hurts them anyway.

Different markets, making them not very direct competition. The way it's shaping up, it looks like the HD DVD and Blu-Ray formats are about getting the best A/V quality possible, basically LD part II.

I don't really think a hypothetical iTunes HD offering would compete against that, nor can they right now or in the next few years. iTunes HD would be competing against cable/FIOS/DSL video on demand services as well as HD satellite. All those services compromise the A/V quality, sometimes quite a bit, which is fine for their market anyway. iTunes HD would probably be just 720p at a bitrate that's a fifth that of HD DVD and Blu-Ray.

Clive At Five · 12-10-2007, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eriamjh

There is one solution: Apple TV and Mac mini become one machine.

Boom.

I assume by that you mean that the aTV gains DVD and DVR capability... and that the Mac Mini loses its "sentience." This would be fine if and only if they replace the Mini with a mid-range tower.

-Clive

nagromme · 12-10-2007, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by teckstud

Sorry- Wrong! If you buy a song from iTunes you are locked into buying iPods unless you convert it into another format and then rip it again to your hard drive.

You deleted my statement about CDs. So you're commenting on something I never said? You're talking about iTunes sales and I'm talking about CDs. Which are the vast majority of legal content on iPods.

The iPod was a success BEFORE the iTunes Music Store. People forget that. The reason was ease-of-use, which applies to the store AND the player, but you can--and most people do--use one without the other all the time.

teckstud · 12-10-2007, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nagromme

Your believed Apple was making a promise to you about future NBC shows? Sounds like you made a misguided purchase--there was no such promise, nor could there ever have been. The promise that WAS made was that NBC shows you bought would keep playing. And they will.

Sorry- poor content available was not was was promised but what is actually being delivered and that is being kind to the content available. It is not the product of the future as Jobs said. And there is no high def content available yet and it's 2008 in 3 1/2 weeks!!

GQB · 12-10-2007, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dylan3d

Apple TV is is an incomplete idea. It needs dvr functionality, cable card slot/s, and 1080P to make it a product that consumers will truly understand.

DVR, yes.
Cable Card slot, yes. (Does hi-def Tivo have use cable card?
1080P, absolutely not necessary. To the vast majority of viewers, the diff between 1080i and 1080p is virtually indistinguishable, and there's no 1080p content. Its a cool videophile feature, but meaningless for the forseeable future, especially for the mass market.

Kind of like people saying they want high def on the iPhone, when on that small of a screen, its indistinguishable from 480P.

12-10-2007, 04:18 PM	#1
*AppleInsider* Kasper's Automated Slave Join Date: Nov 1997 Posts: 6,151	First year Apple TV sales fall below expectations Introduced last year as the DVD player of the future, Apple Inc.'s $299 Apple TV set-top-box has thus far been anything but a hit with consumers, says one market research firm, which estimates that first year sales have fallen well short of initial expectations. Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research predicted back in May that Apple loyalists would help fuel sales of 1 million of the devices by the end the year. However, the firm is now pointing to a failed iTunes video revolution as doing its part to help stifle adoption amongst consumers. “In addition to the 400,000 Apple TV units we estimate Apple has sold thus far, the company will be lucky to sell another 400,000 in the year-end holiday rush, short of our one million estimate,” said analyst James McQuivey. "Unfortunately, the same lack of interest in iTunes video will mean the iPhone and the iPod touch have less video momentum to ride.” According to Forrester, nearly half of all adults with access to the Internet say they have heard of the Apple TV. However, only about 5 percent of those people familiar with the product say they've read up on it via Apple's website or took one for a spin at the company's retail stores. In fact, Forrester claims that just 3 percent of online adults intend to purchase an Apple TV in the future -- essentially the same percentage of iLife users who eventually purchase one of Apple's standalone Jam Packs for GarageBand. In a report last week, McQuivey warned executives of the Cupertino-based company that it was in their best interest to "win NBC back" as an iTunes partner if they had any hopes of replicating their success in music with digital video. "Don't let the Macgeeks posting angry blogs against NBC fool you," McQuivey wrote in a report last Monday following the television network's pull-out from iTunes. "The loser here is Apple, which relies on NBC Universal to deliver 30 (percent) of video download sales. Any supposed backlash against NBC will not materialize because NBC has made its content available, for free, on NBC.com and six other major portals sites." [ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

12-10-2007, 04:40 PM	#3
tink Registered User Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: earth Posts: 326	and... Add some Tivo intigration, Tivo to go like and some recording / capturing feature. One shop stop. “All my life, I always wanted to be somebody. Now I see that I should have been more specific.” - Lily Tomlin

12-10-2007, 04:41 PM	#6
Elmo151 Registered User Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1	reasonably useful I have one but don't find myself using it very often. I have a decent stereo system and it's an easy way to play music . Visitors love looking at full screen photos. Every visitor thinks it's incredible. Would I buy it again? Yes! What's missing: ...HDTV

12-10-2007, 04:46 PM	#7
macinthe408 Registered User Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Los Gatos, CA (spanish for The Gatos) Posts: 149	TiVo is just fine... I considered the Apple TV. For about 10 seconds. And then I sold my Series2 TiVo's and got me some HD Series3 lovin' going on in my bedroom (TiVo HD) and living room (Series 3 HD). With Amazon Unbox and the new offerings TiVo keeps rolling out (Music Choice, DesktopToGo, etc.), the Apple TV fades further and further away in the rearview mirror of choices.

12-10-2007, 04:53 PM	#11
kresh Registered User Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: in a strange land, waiting on my King to come and establish His Kingdom! Posts: 259	Why does AI keep posting this Apple Bashing tripe from a known Apple Bashing hate group? Let's see, they pulled an arbitrary number out of their ass and now they jump all over Apple because they didn't meet this number? How freaking simplistic can you be? Edit: Why don't we revisit Forrester and their past fiascos? Anyone remember the doom and gloom that Itunes was dead? This group has less than Zero credibility! Please click here to help add native TrueCrypt encryption to Pathfinder by voting for this feature in CocoaTech's Feature Suggestion Voting System, No registration required. Spread the word!

12-10-2007, 04:33 PM	#2
roehlstation Registered User Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 492	Too many limitations, Unfortunately, the Apple TV is completing with Media Center, and for whatever reasons Apple TV doesn't have all the features people want. I can only imagine these limitations placed on them by external forces for them NOT to have some sort of DVR built into it. Adding that feature would have sold me on it for sure.

12-10-2007, 04:40 PM	#4
dylan3d Registered User Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Venice, CA Posts: 5	Apple TV is is an incomplete idea. It needs dvr functionality, cable card slot/s, and 1080P to make it a product that consumers will truly understand.

12-10-2007, 04:41 PM	#5
machole Registered User Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1	The state of the AppleTV is 100% due to Apple failing to give a crap about it. Sure, it's a tough sell considering this is basically a BYOS (Bring Your Own Screen) iPod. But did they even try doing what was necessary to make this thing enticing to anyone other than the highest level of Mac enthusiasts? While I love the things it CAN do, I absolutely hate it for what it CAN'T. And with the Xbox 360 now offering DivX/XviD support then not only does the Xbox give us total codec support, it also plays games. I have no interest in being a "gamer" but I'm very tempted to selli the AppleTV and buy an Xbox purely for streaming video. Heck, it beats being a guinea pig for what Apple deems to be a dead "hobby". (Yes, I've tried unlocking it but for weeks I've gotten nowhere. Maybe Apple should just quit being so tight with these ignored products and just unlock the darn thing so it can do what it's capable of doing.)

12-10-2007, 04:48 PM	#8
melgross Global Moderator Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: NYC Posts: 19,612	I agree with this. I've been saying the same thing. Apple hasn't done anything with the ATv to make its purchase meaningful. They did increase the size of the HDD, and update the firmware, but that's not much. They also have to learn to play nice with their content suppliers, like it or not. My wife buys the occasional show. But, in some cases, she now watches the commercially sponsored versions, as they are not on iTunes. Whether we are happy about it or not, people are used to watching commercials. If they can learn to do that with internet offerings, then the pay sites, like iTunes, will have a hard time of it. I think we can all suspect that the other Tv companies are closely watching what is happening with NBC, and Universal. If they look to be making a success of it, Apple might see more follow their example. And, actually, some of the companies who do sell content on iTunes are already following their example. Apple better get its ass in gear. What they have to understand, is that internet sales are still a very small portion of the content company's total income. While that remains true, they can experiment, and leave, with little loss to themselves. If Apple sees its way to understanding their needs, sales may rise to the point where they can't as easily leave. As these companies are either charging no more than Apple is, or offering content for free, ad supported or not, we can see that price is not really the entire issue—control is. no business wants to have its pricing controlled by its retailers. It just doesn't happen.

12-10-2007, 04:49 PM	#9
Clive At Five Registered User Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 646	Hmm let's see what went wrong here... iTunes video is low-quality & too expensive. Plus watching video is more of a commitment than listening to music. It requires your attention, unlike music. Not to mention that a TV show lasts 22 minutes or more, whereas a song lasts roughly 4 minutes. For this reason, it's unrealistic for people to want to own video, as there's less time to watch it. Renting is the obvious answer to this problem. Cheaper and less committal. Then there's aTV. TOO DAMN EXPENSIVE! For that price it should have a DVD player, and/or DVR. I know those technologies compete with the iTS, but it would still mean extra $$ in Apple's pocket. With the iTS video aisle the way it is, I'd say screw it and include these technologies. If Apple had a DVR that could capture and export to iTunes quickly and easily, so that you could upload to your iPhone or iPod........ now THAT would be a technology worth purchasing. aTV and the iTS video section are both failures in my eyes. I would've liked to have had an aTV too... except I'm resorting to a Mini so I can have DVR. -Clive

12-10-2007, 04:58 PM	#16
nagromme Registered User Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: No GPS signal. Posts: 1,169	Translated: Forrester Research says that Apple TV sales fall below Forrester Research predictions. Apple TV was never meant to be a huge tidal wave--it's a strategic piece that Apple needed to offer BEFORE demand for such functionality was significant. (A strategic piece that has nothing to do with DVR. A product isn't a failure just because only a small number of people want it, nor because YOU don't want it. That's like saying there shouldn't be an iPod Classic because more people want a Nano. Apple TV is simply an option the iTunes ecosystem needs to have for completeness. You could just as easily say that iPod-to-TV adapters are a failure because more than 50% of people don't need them. Well, they're a great option if you need them, and no harm done if you don't.) Yes, the move into downloadable video has been slow--for all companies. That's not a "failure." The movie and TV industries will drag their feet at all costs. There's no one partner--not even NBC--that Apple needs to stay afloat. There's room for multiple solutions, and just because iTunes isn't the only one (merely the largest) doesn't make iTunes video a flop. Apple TV is not the last step, but the first. Forrester Research's "predictions" that focus on a tiny piece of a bigger picture don't mean much. BTW, some commentary here on the supposed Apple TV "failure:" http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/0...e-facts-wrong/ nagromme Would you like a treatment? Last edited by nagromme; 12-10-2007 at 05:10 PM..

12-10-2007, 04:59 PM	#17
DeaPeaJay Registered User Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: USA - TN Posts: 889	People need to stop thinking about it like an amazing Apple product. It's no more of an amazing apple product than the Airport Extreme is. It's an accessory for viewing your digital content on your TV.

12-10-2007, 05:02 PM	#19
anantksundaram Registered User Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,218	For Forrester Research report to pin the lack of success of @TV on lack of NBC is silly. As is their plea to Apple to ignore the 'Macgeeks' (oxymoron?). Neither has anything to to do with its lack of success. As has been pointed out repeatedly on forums such as these right from the get-go, it is the product itself that is wanting. (For instance, if it could wirelessly receive video signals from the computer -- which, of course, would require it to be made independent of iTunes -- then someone could watch NBC from hulu-or-whatever.com). It sounds a lot to me a like a market research firm CYA-ing because of its own flawed predictions.

12-10-2007, 05:06 PM	#23
teckstud Registered User Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 6,115	There is no Apple bashing on this item- agreed. AppleTV is a FRK'N LEMON! I should know -I bought one. If ever there was a class action suit in the making - it's for this product. It doesn't do anything but draw enough heat to make a cheese melt sandwich. We still don't know what the USB port is for on the back! Come on Apple- what is it for???? It has a completely useless hard drive that you can't even use in disk mode- WHY? It could have been used for Time Machine-Apple's version of an external hard drive at least- hello?? What a waste. And Apple is the loser with the NBC pullout too- 100%. The television film moguls were getting sucked into a prixfix deal like the dumb music industry and they called Steve Job's bluff. Apple used the music industry to help drive the iPod to where it is today yet keep calling the music industry greedy in the process- LOL. The film/TV industry showed them they weren't going to do it twice. And who lost. The consumers who bought the Apple TV. I want a rebate - you can take it back, thank you.

12-10-2007, 05:08 PM	#24
Eriamjh Registered User Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 137	There is one solution: Apple TV and Mac mini become one machine. Boom.

12-10-2007, 05:11 PM	#27
tadunne Registered User Join Date: Jun 2003 Posts: 153	This is what apple needs to do.. 1) Use the basis of the ipod/touch platform (cpu and os) to create a new version of the Apple TV which pretty much the same as the ipod touch hardware wise except for a better H.264 decoding to cope with 720p. Don't have much storage space and rely on streaming. This should reduce the cost of the unit. 2)Sell this for $150 (as it's basically an ipod touch without the screen or flash ram) 3)Start selling and renting HD movies/TV shows on itunes and allow the new apple TV to purchase these directly from the box and stored on a connected computer 4)Allow the iphone/ipod touch to become the same device via a more advanced dock that sells for $75 5)Sell a NAS device that can act as a wireless itunes server that users of ipods/apple tvs can wirelessly sync their data from/to TD

12-10-2007, 05:14 PM	#30
MoparSteve Registered User Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 6	I still wish the Apple TV was more like an enhanced mini, why not have the media hub be the main server of the media instead of having to keep you main computer on and able to stream when you want to watch your content. Add EyeTV (&/or cable card slot) and you have your DVR setup. Adding a BlueRay drive too is even better. I didn't buy my video iPod with the notion that I would be filling it with media I bought from iTunes. 99% of the video I have loaded on my iPod is either ripped from DVDs that I own, or shows I recorded off EyeTV. TV episode prices will need to come down substantially for me to buy online, when recording it is so easy. Even if I miss an episode, it'll be rerun before too long. Online movie prices will need to come down substantially less than that of a dvd before I go there. I can't think of a single movie where I couldn't wait to make a trip to the store. Video iPods will sell even without the iTunes video store. The iTunes music store is a different story. That fills a need I've been looking for, for a very long time.

12-10-2007, 05:15 PM	#31
BRussell Registered User Join Date: Nov 2001 Location: In rehab for sex addiction Posts: 9,481	The lack of success of the AppleTV has nothing to do with its hardware, it has to do with the iTunes store videos. The selection is relatively poor, there are no rentals, and the resolution isn't good enough for big-screen TV viewing. Change those things, but don't change the AppleTV hardware or functionality, and you've got a hit with AppleTV.

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