Apple's Leopard to boost Mac sales while Dell, HP slump: report

[AppleInsider]

Mac OS X Leopard will drive Apple computer sales to record levels in the next few months while both Dell and HP are mired in sinking or largely stagnant demand, according to a new report from ChangeWave Research.

Of those poll respondents shopping for a desktop or notebook computer within the three months following November, a record 29 percent of each group plans to buy a Mac -- a slight increase from 28 percent in August for the already strong-selling MacBook range but a major spike from the 23 percent set by desktops in the same late summer period.

At 24 percent, nearly one quarter of those who answered the research firm specifically said they would be more likely to buy a Mac due to the release of Mac OS X Leopard in October.

Apple is also likely to crack the historically resistant corporate market, ChangeWave says. Sales of both Mac desktops and notebooks to business customers have remained virtually flat for a full year, but are now set to climb a percentage point each to 6 and 7 percent respectively. The combination should put Apple ahead of the curve, according to the poll.

"Over the next 90 days, Mac laptop and desktop sales to consumers will remain the biggest growth story in the PC industry," ChangeWave explains.





The analyst firm notes that Apple is more likely to retain these buyers, with a full 80 percent of existing Mac owners saying they are "very satisfied" with their systems compared to 61 percent for its next-best competitor, Dell. About 18 percent of Mac users are at least somewhat satisfied.

Major Windows PC makers are losing favor among the 13,000 respondents. Surprisingly, Hewlett-Packard's rapid growth in marketshare may cool during the holidays: although HP's demand has remained steady for most of the year, demand for HP's home desktops and portables has dipped to 24 and 21 percent, a drop of 4 percent in each case. The computer builder's corporate sales have remained largely flat, peaking at 18 percent for desktops.

If anticipated purchases are an indication, Dell has yet to recover from its "downward spiral" from the past two years, ChangeWave says. The company's desktops remained at their two-year low of 31 percent demand while notebooks dropped from 29 to 28 percent. Businesses only saw a slight upturn but were only slightly higher than lows set in August.

And while there are more "very satisfied" owners of Dell and HP systems, more of their user bases in the study group are likely to complain about the experience than before: Dell's dissatisfied base has grown from 8 to 12 percent, while HP sees a near-identical climb from 9 to 13 percent.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[shanmugam]

if xMac, MacBook 15" released MWSF, hmmm sigh sigh i am day dreaming ....

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by shanmugam

if xMac, MacBook 15" released MWSF, hmmm sigh sigh i am day dreaming ....

I'm crossig my fingers for a 13.4" MacBook. The 13.3" display is just too small for me.

[plus]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The analyst firm notes that Apple is more likely to retain these buyers, with a full 80 percent of existing Mac owners saying they are "very satisfied" with their systems compared to 61 percent for its next-best competitor, Dell. About 18 percent of Mac users are at least somewhat satisfied.

Umm, assuming that someone who is "very satisfied" is more satisfied than someone who is "somewhat satisfied", then we can't have 80% very satisfied but only 18% who are at least somewhat satisfied. Saying "at least" means they are satisfied at least somewhat (and maybe more) ... and we already know that 80% polled as "very satisfied"!

Judging from the actual ChangeWave data displayed later in the article, 98% of Mac users are at least somewhat satisfied (80% very satisfied and an additional 18% who are (only) somewhat satisfied). The text should be changed ... e.g., "About 18% of Mac users are at least somewhat satisfied" should read "An additional 18% of Mac users are at least somewhat satisfied."

[zunx]

Is this for the States, Worldwide?

The day Mac OS X reaches 20% marker share worldwide, Windows will fade away in three years. Windows is maintained by ignorance (with all due respect) and inertia. People suffer it because they do not know that there is a much better alternative named Mac OS X.

[shanmugam]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I'm crossig my fingers for a 13.4" MacBook. The 13.3" display is just too small for me.

you meant to say 15.4" ?

[iCarbon]

Originally Posted by shanmugam

you meant to say 15.4" ?

Nahhh... I personally think that extrat 0.1" makes a huge difference!

[HyteProsector]

Originally Posted by iCarbon

Nahhh... I personally think that extrat 0.1" makes a huge difference!

you meant to say "extra"?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by shanmugam

you meant to say 15.4" ?

No, I was just goofing around.

[Ireland]

That 11", ultra-light Mac touch will create even more interest

Not that I expect it to be announced at Macworld. I'd say late summer myself, or even possibly Macworld 2009.

What I'd love to happen @ Macworld (but don't expect to):

* 11" Mac touch, 13mm thin, iSight in bezel, 64GB SSD storage, ultra-light, ultra-portable, glass screen, aluminum rear with touch stand (like when you press a touch bin - it pops out), rubber hand grips, and completely M-T UI with virtual keyboard. Comes with docking stand, targeted @ desktop users "Take some work with you.", can be used a digital picture frame.

* New 13.3", 15.4" & 17.1" LED-backlit MacBooks, newly design aluminum chassis, slightly thinner case, new flat white keyboards, magnetic latch across the board, and "Pro" moniker completely killed. 13.3" version available in colors. "All three" fully customizable.

* 12.1" MacBook thin announced, 15mm thin, Leopards comes on thumb drive, fully SSD, 64GB or 128GB versions, mag-latch, the works.

* New Cinema Displays; 20", 24" + 30", all LED back-lit, iSights built-in, Glossy or matte options, 50% thinner, 30% lighter, 25% cheaper.

* Early iPhone SDK announced with 3 games released (work on iPod touch too)

* 16GB iPhone released

* Johnny Ive signed in as new CEO :P

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by zunx

Is this for the States, Worldwide?

The day Mac OS X reaches 20% marker share worldwide, Windows will fade away in three years. Windows is maintained by ignorance (with all due respect) and inertia. People suffer it because they do not know that there is a much better alternative named Mac OS X.

Well over the past three decades Apple has not broken 10% market share so I doubt we have to worry about 20% anytime soon.

Also Windows could never fade away in three years because the average business would not invest that much money in that span of time to change around all their systems.

The fact is the business world in general has very little interest in Apple. With all the hype and all the reports the simple fact is Apple market share still remains around 6%, people were predicting 10% back in 2005 and yet it's still at 6%.

[macosxp]

Well, there you have it. It looks like Mac sales are WAY up, and looking at Amazon.com's bestselling computers and operating systems show some good news, as well. Leopard comes before XP, XP before Vista.

And this trend is going to get stronger, not weaker, and Mac OS X market share will break WAY beyond 20%. You see, the way sales are going on now, the Mac market share should reach around 20% (or at least get close) in a few months. (with a side-effect of even MORE software being written for Mac.) And then when such a large amount of people are using Mac, all the Windows users who use it just because that is what is shown to them at Staples will open their eyes and realize that Mac OS X is an actual option to consider. After that happens, and it will likely be within one or two years, a LARGE portion of these Windows users who are fed up with Windows or Microsoft will begin using Macs, and that could make the Windows market share shrink to around 40% within a few years (with it slowly declining from there, unless Microsoft REALLY cleans up their act and makes a REALLY good OS without all the problems or high prices). Yup, that's the snowball effect for you, and it's very real.

--
[ Oh, and there is also an emerging operating system, ReactOS, intended to be a free, open source alternative to Windows (meaning it is completely legal, works like Windows, and runs all Windows software natively) . It could mean that eventually, instead of installing Windows (on Boot Camp or VMware) for any other software needs (which probably won't be needed by then), some people will use ReactOS instead. It is only at version 0.3 right now (and as such is about twice as unstable as Windows ME), but it should be an option in several years. (The only downsides are that it wouldn't be officially supported by Microsoft or anything, and it would likely lag a bit behind Windows, but on the other hand it will be made by the people, for the people, and as such be better than Windows in many ways). ]
--

[heffeque]

Originally Posted by macosxp

And this trend is going to get stronger, not weaker, and Mac OS X market share will break WAY beyond 20%. You see, the way sales are going on now, the Mac market share should reach around 20% (or at least get close) in a few months.

That market share is in the US. The rest of the world (and there's a lot of world out of the US) isn't really into Macs yet, but... give it some time :-)

[macosxp]

Originally Posted by heffeque

That market share is in the US. The rest of the world (and there's a lot of world out of the US) isn't really into Macs yet, but... give it some time :-)

Except in Japan, where Mac is far more popular than it is in the USA.

[ascii]

Originally Posted by zunx

Windows will fade away in three years. Windows is maintained by ignorance (with all due respect) and inertia. People suffer it because they do not know that there is a much better alternative named Mac OS X.

And also because it enabled them to pirate software off their work computer. But with corporate copy protection these days it's a lot harder. One less reason to buy a PC.

[jsavage]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

Well over the past three decades Apple has not broken 10% market share so I doubt we have to worry about 20% anytime soon.

Also Windows could never fade away in three years because the average business would not invest that much money in that span of time to change around all their systems.

The fact is the business world in general has very little interest in Apple. With all the hype and all the reports the simple fact is Apple market share still remains around 6%, people were predicting 10% back in 2005 and yet it's still at 6%.

Although I am all for the spirit of "Windows fading away", I think we will see eye-to-eye in that time estimates are pointless. The question is "will windows fade away?". The answer is becoming closer to yes, but we're not there yet.

On the three years question, look at Dell. Everyone forgets that the whole Order Online Dell efficiency was not the reason why they suceeded, it was instead a good product and impecable (apple-esque) technical support. They ditched that and within three years, they had dug their own grave. Still they do have the number one share, but everyone would rather be in Apple's spot! I agree that when Apple hits 20%, within 3 years it will mark MSFT's entry into the Dell category. I think it will take ten years to complete the euthanization, though.

[Charko]

Originally Posted by heffeque

That market share is in the US. The rest of the world (and there's a lot of world out of the US) isn't really into Macs yet, but... give it some time :-)

If Apple wants to increase the market share of Macs in Europe to that of the U.S., they could start by lowering the cost a bit.
The cheapest iMac here in Germany costs $1760. That's almost 50% more than in the States. It's the same with all other Apple products.

Sales tax here is 19%. So that doesn't explain it.
Why does Apple slap another 30% on?

[camimac]

Originally Posted by plus

Umm, assuming that someone who is "very satisfied" is more satisfied than someone who is "somewhat satisfied", then we can't have 80% very satisfied but only 18% who are at least somewhat satisfied. Saying "at least" means they are satisfied at least somewhat (and maybe more) ... and we already know that 80% polled as "very satisfied"!

Judging from the actual ChangeWave data displayed later in the article, 98% of Mac users are at least somewhat satisfied (80% very satisfied and an additional 18% who are (only) somewhat satisfied). The text should be changed ... e.g., "About 18% of Mac users are at least somewhat satisfied" should read "An additional 18% of Mac users are at least somewhat satisfied."

Stop being pedantic. Yes, it could have been written a bit better, but even a trained monkey understands the meaning.

[camimac]

Originally Posted by macosxp

And this trend is going to get stronger, not weaker, and Mac OS X market share will break WAY beyond 20%. You see, the way sales are going on now, the Mac market share should reach around 20% (or at least get close) in a few months. (with a side-effect of even MORE software being written for Mac.) And then when such a large amount of people are using Mac, all the Windows users who use it just because that is what is shown to them at Staples will open their eyes and realize that Mac OS X is an actual option to consider. After that happens, and it will likely be within one or two years, a LARGE portion of these Windows users who are fed up with Windows or Microsoft will begin using Macs, and that could make the Windows market share shrink to around 40% within a few years (with it slowly declining from there, unless Microsoft REALLY cleans up their act and makes a REALLY good OS without all the problems or high prices). Yup, that's the snowball effect for you, and it's very real.
--

What drugs are you taking? They seem fun...

If Apple reaches 10% in "a few months" I'll eat my keyboard.

[camimac]

Originally Posted by Charko

If Apple wants to increase the market share of Macs in Europe to that of the U.S., they could start by lowering the cost a bit.
The cheapest iMac here in Germany costs $1760. That's almost 50% more than in the States. It's the same with all other Apple products.

Sales tax here is 19%. So that doesn't explain it.
Why does Apple slap another 30% on?

The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro is just one explanation. The other is that it's always been more expensive to buy Apple gear here in Europe. Mind you, it's not just Apple, I wanted to buy a bag to go with a MacBook, and it was exactly the same price to order it from the USA with a $40 shipping fee than buy it from an European retailer with a 7.5 euro shipping fee

[aegisdesign]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I'm crossig my fingers for a 13.4" MacBook. The 13.3" display is just too small for me.

I'm hoping for a 337.82mm MacBook. It's about time they went metric.

[freelander51]

Originally Posted by camimac

If Apple reaches 10% in "a few months" I'll eat my keyboard.

Can you please post the video of this on YouTube afterwards ?

[Charko]

Originally Posted by camimac

The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro is just one explanation. The other is that it's always been more expensive to buy Apple gear here in Europe. Mind you, it's not just Apple, I wanted to buy a bag to go with a MacBook, and it was exactly the same price to order it from the USA with a $40 shipping fee than buy it from an European retailer with a 7.5 euro shipping fee

But I'm using today's exchange rate to compare the prices so how can that play a role? Or am I missing something here?
Moreover, both the U.S. and the European customer is using a product shipped from China, not the U.S.

To say that Apple products were always more expensive in Europe is neither an explanation, a justification, or, indeed, a comfort.

[Charko]

O.K., it might be an explanation (or sorts).

But on second thoughts and having just re-heard the audiobook: 'The Second Coming of Steve Jobs', I'm beginning to think that it may well be S.J.'s well-documented tendency to make as much as you can on any deal however fair or not.
'Fairness' is a word that just doesn't belong in S.J.'s vocabulary.

[iCarbon]

Originally Posted by Charko

But I'm using today's exchange rate to compare the prices so how can that play a role? Or am I missing something here?
Moreover, both the U.S. and the European customer is using a product shipped from China, not the U.S.

To say that Apple products were always more expensive in Europe is neither an explanation, a justification, or, indeed, a comfort.

I know that it may seem harsh that Apple is over pricing in Europe, but its for a very simple reason. They're blaming all of Europe for that old taxation without representation thing from way back when, and sticking it to all of you now.

Actually, I'm guessing that there is either an import or export tax that someone is charging... you know, free trade and all....

[Charko]

Originally Posted by iCarbon

I know that it may seem harsh that Apple is over pricing in Europe, but its for a very simple reason. They're blaming all of Europe for that old taxation without representation thing from way back when, and sticking it to all of you now.

Actually, I'm guessing that there is either an import or export tax that someone is charging... you know, free trade and all....

It seems a bit hard that all the other Europeans should be made to pay for the sins of we Brits!http://forums.appleinsider.com/image...s/1smoking.gif

[samurai1999]

Originally Posted by Charko

If Apple wants to increase the market share of Macs in Europe to that of the U.S., they could start by lowering the cost a bit.
The cheapest iMac here in Germany costs $1760. That's almost 50% more than in the States. It's the same with all other Apple products.

Sales tax here is 19%. So that doesn't explain it.
Why does Apple slap another 30% on?

You're right the Euro cost Apple products (after VAT) is the same as the dollar number
i.e. 1199 Euro - $1199

Taking of the VAT, you get about a 23% higher price in Germany compared to the US
- in the UK, we pay about 15% more for the honour of buying Apple than the US (exc VAT)
- so I would say that the Germany/France prices are way out of line
- there's no need to charge such a premium - a small amount of margin to allow for currency fluctations would be understandable, but 23% is ridiculous!

It's almost like they were just being lazy at Apple Germany - and just copief the Sticker prices and put a Euro sign on instead of a $!

But if they want to improve market-share on this side of the water they need to be more competitive, I think.

[Clive At Five]

Wow, if this trend remains true, then in a life-cycle of computers, Apple's market share will be 29%!!!

All the more reason to add an xMac to the lineup, Apple. Let's push 50%.

-Clive

[OldMacGuy]

I've been meeting friends whose kids have convinced them to buy Macs. The kids have not been corrupted by work computers. Unfortunately, while the kids are comfortable with their own Macs, they aren't showing the parents how to actually USE OSX, and the initial experiences are not particularly satisfying. I'm thinking of putting up a sign in the supermarket offering one-on-one tutoring at a "reasonable" price. What the hell, I'm retired, anyway.

[macosxp]

Originally Posted by camimac

What drugs are you taking? They seem fun...

If Apple reaches 10% in "a few months" I'll eat my keyboard.

Better get ready to eat.

Actually, maybe 20% is a little overly-optimistic (but it may not be, we'll see, depending on how many people choose to buy new computers), but 10% is in the bag.

Among consumers, it might already be above 10%. Two fairly popular, non-computer-related blogs:
http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=...rdwatcher&r=19
http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s26dafyoni&r=19

I've seen lots of other sitemeter reports, too, and they all tell the same story.
And how about this:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...f=pd_ts_sw_nav

So you're going to be eating your keyboard before you know it.

And what's important is that these sources are looking mostly at consumers, not businesses. The snowball effect takes place among the consumers, though it could influence businesses later on.

[macosxp]

Originally Posted by OldMacGuy

I've been meeting friends whose kids have convinced them to buy Macs. The kids have not been corrupted by work computers. Unfortunately, while the kids are comfortable with their own Macs, they aren't showing the parents how to actually USE OSX, and the initial experiences are not particularly satisfying. I'm thinking of putting up a sign in the supermarket offering one-on-one tutoring at a "reasonable" price. What the hell, I'm retired, anyway.

What about Apple Store workshops? When they buy the computer, can't they learn about them there, or even ask their kids?

[guinness]

Originally Posted by zunx

Is this for the States, Worldwide?

The day Mac OS X reaches 20% marker share worldwide, Windows will fade away in three years. Windows is maintained by ignorance (with all due respect) and inertia. People suffer it because they do not know that there is a much better alternative named Mac OS X.

How do you figure?

Apple doesn't care about most business or gamers - iWork '08( Keynote's nice, but everything else is sad...) and games, on a Mac?

To be honest with you, either I know too much about Windows to care, and because I use Ubuntu as well, but OSX just isn't that different or better. Vista may be built on a bed of gravel, but I find it fine for the most part.

I find Picasa better than iPhoto too, and with every revision, iTunes is getting worse, Safari is weak, as I prefer Opera or FF, and it offers nothing over the former. Other than pretty boxes, and the iPod, I think Apple's been neglecting their applications. And from my experience at work, Leopard hasn't been a bed of roses.

And I'll be upgrading to Leopard this weekend, so I'll be curious how that goes.

The more I use Windows, Linux, or OSX, the more I find them the same, with their own idiosyncrasies.

When Apple gets serious about a xMac, I'll listen, but their choices are too limited. Apple is where they are at in the computer market because of their own arrogance. The Vista/Mac ads are stupid and insulting...

I like my new Mac Mini, but I'll take Apple's or Microsoft's claims with a grain of salt.

[Lafe]

Originally Posted by camimac

Stop being pedantic. Yes, it could have been written a bit better, but even a trained monkey understands the meaning.

My monkey had some trouble parsing that one. I explained it to him,
though, and he seems okay now. I would have preferred to skip that,
though. He throws feces when he's frustrated.

It could have been more clearly written.

[lundy]

When Apple gets serious about a xMac, I'll listen, but their choices are too limited.

You are not the target market then. The vast majority of consumers don't care about expandability - there is nothing to expand. They buy a Dell because it comes with Windows, not because it is a tower.

Apple is where they are at in the computer market because of their own arrogance. The Vista/Mac ads are stupid and insulting...

What arrogance? Compared to Microsoft's unbelievable business practices?

- Announcing vaporware to make buyers hesitate in buying competing products
- Per-processor licensing to boxmakers
- Threats to force competitors out of the market
- Buying up competition and killing it
- Using monopoly status in OS to get monopoly in many other areas: browser, audio and video formats, etc.
- Tried to make Java work only on Windows and got slapped for it
- Putting fake error messages in Windows blaming DR-DOS
- Making non-W3C compliant web design apps to run only on Windows IE
- Threatening Apple to kill QuickTime
- Threatening Apple to kill MacBasic
- Threatening to stop Word and Excel development
- Making developers agree not to compete in order to get APIs

and many more..

If MS ever once had to compete on quality of the product, they would have been extinct 20 years ago.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by guinness

How do you figure?

Apple doesn't care about most business or gamers - iWork '08( Keynote's nice, but everything else is sad...) and games, on a Mac?

Gamers= non issue they don't generate consistent revenue/profits. Apple "does" care about business. Leopard Server is finally ready for primetime with full ACL support and Calendar Servers (Mail and Cal being clusterable). Spotlight Server is another boon as well as the sharing functionality.

To be honest with you, either I know too much about Windows to care, and because I use Ubuntu as well, but OSX just isn't that different or better. Vista may be built on a bed of gravel, but I find it fine for the most part.

Some people don't see the value in polish and elegance. That's not a negative on them.

I find Picasa better than iPhoto too, and with every revision, iTunes is getting worse, Safari is weak, as I prefer Opera or FF, and it offers nothing over the former. Other than pretty boxes, and the iPod, I think Apple's been neglecting their applications. And from my experience at work, Leopard hasn't been a bed of roses.

iTunes is becoming a mess. I think Apple should have a huge revision for ver 8. I like Picasa and felt it was better than iPhoto but I don't have the most recent iPhoto to compare so I'll withhold final judgement. Safari is not weak IMO. It displays my websites fine under Leopard my stability increased and the HTML support has improved. No it's not going to have a bajillion plugins like FF or Opera but weak is not what I'd call Safari and the benefits are pretty clear. Ask a web developer about how they feel about Safari 2 vs 3. Leopard has been fine for me but then again I'm not trying to make it connect to windows domains.

And I'll be upgrading to Leopard this weekend, so I'll be curious how that goes.

The more I use Windows, Linux, or OSX, the more I find them the same, with their own idiosyncrasies.

True..a computer is just a tool for most. I just can't swallow windows idiosyncrasies that annoy me (WGA, constant silly security alerts etc) OS X has been tranquil for me. It doesn't scream out for my attention at every step. Apple has made some awkward moves (stripping hierarchical doc folders) but I think what they've done with the core will make current apps better. Tiger was nice and all but developers are pretty keen on Leopard core technologies for their apps. That means less suckitude.

When Apple gets serious about a xMac, I'll listen, but their choices are too limited. Apple is where they are at in the computer market because of their own arrogance. The Vista/Mac ads are stupid and insulting...

I like my new Mac Mini, but I'll take Apple's or Microsoft's claims with a grain of salt.

I kind of think the computer market on a whole is stuck in stasis for a bit. We have cool procs...more storage than ever and the web but no one has really put things together with a breadth that makes them unbeatable.

I think Leopard is cool but not so cool that I'm a PC users so gobsmacked that I'm coming over. The era of the PC as a single computing entity is over. Vendors better start thinking about how they work in a networked and ubuiquitous environment. I need my data everywhere now. My inspiration doesn't follow typical work hours.