Second-gen iPhone in final phase; Apple TV update planned - report

[AppleInsider]

After meeting with key component suppliers and manufacturers in Asia, researchers for investment bank Goldman Sachs said this week they believe Apple will introduce two revisions to the iPhone in 2008 -- one minor, one major -- in addition to an Apple TV overhaul during the second half of the year.

In a research note on Tuesday, analyst David Bailey advised clients that his Far Eastern contacts have lead him to believe that "Apple has several important new products lined up for 2008," though none of them are expected to pack the same punch as the company's inaugural iPhone handset.

Among them is a second-generation iPhone currently in the "final design phase," the analyst said. The handset is expected to "have a similar form factor as the current version although it could have a different look and will probably include 3G capability."

Bailey estimates that the next-gen iPhone will launch sometime during the second half of the year, but also believes the company will tie over consumers with "a smaller upgrade with more flash memory earlier in the year."

Meanwhile, the analyst's Asian contacts have also led him to believe that "Apple will be making changes to Apple TV" sometime in the second half of 2008 "which could include an LCD display."

"Apple will refresh its entire Mac line-up throughout 2008, but information about the potential launch of a subnotebook was scarce, with one supplier saying that the product may be pushed out, citing possible design issues," he added.

In general, Bailey said several of the companies he met with suggested that they were seeing higher than expected shipments of iPods this quarter, with one commenting that Apple adjusted orders upward in October during the peak holiday season manufacturing build.

"Both the iPod Touch and nano are seeing strength while iPod shuffle demand seems stable, which should cause blended average selling prices (ASPs) to come in above our $150 estimate," he wrote.

This data point appears to corroborate recent comments from CNBC's Jim Goldman, who last week cited his own sources in Asia as saying that the iPod Touch was selling "far better than expected," compelling one of the Apple's manufacturing partners to increase production to 5.1 million units for the current quarter.

For his part, Bailey added that his supply chain contacts are expecting another year of double-digit iPod growth in 2008. On the Mac side, he said, Apple’s notebook demand remains strong and should drive above-market growth for the seventh quarter in a row – a trend that suppliers expect will continue in the new year.

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $205 per share.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[success]

Release by Jan?

Btw, I'm first

[dr_lha]

So by "LCD" in the AppleTV I wonder if they mean: The next AppleTV will actually be a TV, or do they just mean something like a small clock/channel type display on the AppleTV?

[hanabi]

I hope that early adopters of the iPhone will get an offer to upgrade to the 2nd Gen iPhone. Being locked into an 18 month contract means that we could end up being stuck with our 1st Gen iPhone for a little while longer after the 2nd Gen revision comes out.

[dr_lha]

Originally Posted by hanabi

I hope that early adopters of the iPhone will get an offer to upgrade to the 2nd Gen iPhone. Being locked into an 18 month contract means that we could end up being stuck with our 1st Gen iPhone for a little while longer after the 2nd Gen revision comes out.

Why should early adopters get such an upgrade? Has any cell phone company or cell phone manufacturer ever offered such a thing in the history of mankind? No. Then why should Apple?

Also, I believe you're free to buy a second generation iPhone whenever you like, all that will happen is that your contract will be extended another 2 years from when you sign up the new phone. It works like this because AT&T do not subsidize the iPhone. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but that was how it worked if you bought an iPhone and you were already under contract.

[teckstud]

Wow- now that's thrilling! That's the least of what Apple TV needs- an LCD display.
Will all of us pioneers who got suckered into buying the 1st generation be able to get a trade-in for our lemons or a rebate like the iPhoneers?

[iMat]

In my opinion the already crowded market of LCD HDTVs, with its razor thin margins, doesn't need Apple to step into it. Better fix the existing AppleTV and allow users to hook it into the existing set, than try to sell them a new TV. Early adopters, those who actually are more likely to buy the AppleTV, already own their TV set.

I think Apple should concentrate on "finishing" the AppleTV before venturing in new markets. But that is just my opinion (maybe biased because I own one).

[aross99]

Originally Posted by hanabi

I hope that early adopters of the iPhone will get an offer to upgrade to the 2nd Gen iPhone. Being locked into an 18 month contract means that we could end up being stuck with our 1st Gen iPhone for a little while longer after the 2nd Gen revision comes out.

I'm pretty sure we are locked in to a contract with AT&T service - NOT with our specific model of iPhone. I'm sure we will be able to purchase new iPhones when they come out and use them for the remainder of our contract...

Unless we can sell our old iPhones for a decent amount though, it's going to get kind of pricy buying a new $400-$500 phone every year...

Since the phones are unsubsidised from AT&T, I doubt there will be an upgrade option. It's like going from a 5G iPod to an iPod touch. You have to buy the new one and hope you sell the old one.

[hanabi]

Originally Posted by dr_lha

Why should early adopters get such an upgrade? Has any cell phone company or cell phone manufacturer ever offered such a thing in the history of mankind? No. Then why should Apple?

Also, I believe you're free to buy a second generation iPhone whenever you like, all that will happen is that your contract will be extended another 2 years from when you sign up the new phone. It works like this because AT&T do not subsidize the iPhone. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but that was how it worked if you bought an iPhone and you were already under contract.

In Europe, mobile phone customers are used to getting free mobile phone upgrades and also significantly discounted mobile phone upgrades after a certain period of time, without having to purchase a new phone outright.

[TenoBell]

Also, I believe you're free to buy a second generation iPhone whenever you like, all that will happen is that your contract will be extended another 2 years from when you sign up the new phone. It works like this because AT&T do not subsidize the iPhone.

It works the other way around. When you buy a subsidized phone is when your contract is extended. I doubt the iPhone contract will be extended when you have to pay full price for the new phone.

[cutemartin]

[QUOTE=aross99;1183208
Unless we can sell our old iPhones for a decent amount though, it's going to get kind of pricy buying a new $400-$500 phone every year...
[/QUOTE]

If there are still markets around the world where the iPhone hasn't been released by the time the 2nd Gen comes outm there'll be a decent market for 2nd hand ones...

[mowenbrown]

[QUOTE=dr_lha;1183205]Why should early adopters get such an upgrade? Has any cell phone company or cell phone manufacturer ever offered such a thing in the history of mankind? No. Then why should Apple?[QUOTE]

I agree with you an the update. By that logic those of us that wait should get a break for being patient and waiting for the 2nd generation. </sarcasm>

Originally Posted by dr_lha

Also, I believe you're free to buy a second generation iPhone whenever you like, all that will happen is that your contract will be extended another 2 years from when you sign up the new phone. It works like this because AT&T do not subsidize the iPhone. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but that was how it worked if you bought an iPhone and you were already under contract.

Although, if there's no subsidy why do they get to lock you in? The idea of the contract (and locking the phone to a carrier) was to off-set the money used to subsidize the phone when a consumer purchased it... you don't pay now, but you do pay later. I think the reason they get to lock you in is because they can. They have iPhones, I want an iPhone... Although, in the end I think it's a little off-putting they do. As time marches on I think public opinion may force a change or at least a little more transparency.

[GQB]

Originally Posted by dr_lha

So by "LCD" in the AppleTV I wonder if they mean: The next AppleTV will actually be a TV, or do they just mean something like a small clock/channel type display on the AppleTV?

Of all the suggestions I've seen for 'improving' ATV, adding a monitor would be about the dumbest. And the move in entertainment has been away from controls on the box itself. Seems unlikely that Apple would take a retro move like that.
Goldman Sachs, meeting with suppliers, and "could' include some sort of LCD display.
Pretty weak.

[GQB]

Originally Posted by hanabi

I hope that early adopters of the iPhone will get an offer to upgrade to the 2nd Gen iPhone. Being locked into an 18 month contract means that we could end up being stuck with our 1st Gen iPhone for a little while longer after the 2nd Gen revision comes out.

Dream on.

[minderbinder]

No aTV update until the SECOND half of next year???

And the only detail they can come up with is adding a screen (which ambiguously could either mean adding a big TV screen, or just adding a little display like DVD players have...neither of which would add anything at all).

My guess is they have absolutely no aTV info at all and are just making a wild stab in the dark. It's easy to be right when you're ridiculously vague.

[mugwump]

That apple TV needs to uprez standard def content into stunning HD. Even cheap DVD players do this well.

[Thataboy]

I was really expecting a successor to AppleTV in January. My gut said that AppleTV and her neglected cousin Mac Mini would be sort of merged and revamped. I guess I'll hold out til then!

[dr_lha]

Originally Posted by hanabi

In Europe, mobile phone customers are used to getting free mobile phone upgrades and also significantly discounted mobile phone upgrades after a certain period of time, without having to purchase a new phone outright.

Works the same way in the USA too, but the iPhone isn't subsidized so you just have to pay full price, there is no "upgrade". That "certain period of time" in the USA is generally at the end of your 2 year contract, but I believe some cell phone providers will allow you to upgrade earlier if you extend your contract another 2 years.

[dr_lha]

Originally Posted by mowenbrown

Although, if there's no subsidy why do they get to lock you in?

To guarantee Apple and AT&T a steady profit over the lifetime of the phone I guess. From a customer's point of view its a pretty bad deal I'll agree as every other phone gets subsidized. For this reason when I got my iPhone, I also got a free phone from AT&T (I was out of contract) to sell on Ebay to "self-subsidize" the iPhone.
I believe getting an iPhone doesn't actually affect your eligibility to get a free phone in any way so many people who upgraded to an iPhone could probably do the same as I did today.

[John French]

Originally Posted by mugwump

That apple TV needs to uprez standard def content into stunning HD. Even cheap DVD players do this well.

What it needs to do is be able to get it's hands on Hi-Def iTunes content to begin with. iTunes 8, anyone?

Oh....and while they're at it, why not make it be able to stream content wirelessly from your iPod Touch or iPhone?

Better yet, why not be able to use your iPod Touch or iPhone as a remote for the thing?




Wait a second...those seem like they might...just...happen

[Wings]

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $205 per share.

C'mon Mr. Sachs, Apple will be above $205 in less than 30 days.

[palex9]

100% speculation, no facts. i could come up with a forecast like this in a couple minutes and may even be right on a couple guesses.

[digitalclips]

Originally Posted by Wings

C'mon Mr. Sachs, Apple will be above $205 in less than 30 days.

I agree with you! This had to be a misprint surely? Maybe it should have ben $505

[aegisdesign]

Originally Posted by hanabi

In Europe, mobile phone customers are used to getting free mobile phone upgrades and also significantly discounted mobile phone upgrades after a certain period of time, without having to purchase a new phone outright.

Usually at the end of the contract or close to it and usually you then have to extend your contract by another year or so. Nothing is free when you dig into it.

Originally Posted by TenoBell

It works the other way around. When you buy a subsidized phone is when your contract is extended. I doubt the iPhone contract will be extended when you have to pay full price for the new phone.

That might only be true in France as they're currently the only country selling un-subsidised iPhones without contracts.

[Cicero]

Originally Posted by dr_lha

To guarantee Apple and AT&T a steady profit over the lifetime of the phone I guess. From a customer's point of view its a pretty bad deal I'll agree as every other phone gets subsidized. For this reason when I got my iPhone, I also got a free phone from AT&T (I was out of contract) to sell on Ebay to "self-subsidize" the iPhone.
I believe getting an iPhone doesn't actually affect your eligibility to get a free phone in any way so many people who upgraded to an iPhone could probably do the same as I did today.

That is a great idea!!!

It really makes sense. When I got my iPhone, I just extended my contract for another two years. Had I been in a position to "upgrade", at the end of my current contract, I could have renewed my contract, receiving a new "free" phone, and then bought and activated my iPhone, allowing me to sell the other phone. This could be extended to new users as well.

Nice loophole!!!!!

[SpamSandwich]

"Apple will refresh its entire Mac line-up throughout 2008, but information about the potential launch of a subnotebook was scarce, with one supplier saying that the product may be pushed out, citing possible design issues," he added."

Oh, really?

There never was a "subnotebook"!

[aegisdesign]

Originally Posted by Cicero

That is a great idea!!!

It really makes sense. When I got my iPhone, I just extended my contract for another two years. Had I been in a position to "upgrade", at the end of my current contract, I could have renewed my contract, receiving a new "free" phone, and then bought and activated my iPhone, allowing me to sell the other phone. This could be extended to new users as well.

Nice loophole!!!!!

I wondered about this prior to the O2 launch of the iPhone here.

The cheapest way to get one would seem to be to get a free phone on O2 such as an N95 which comes with much better contract terms, particularly if you don't want data access. Then buy an iPhone from Apple, stick the SIM in the iPhone and activate it. Sell the N95 on eBay brand new, unused.

I don't know if anyone has done that though or is the iPhone IMEI locked into iPhone only tariffs?

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by iMat

In my opinion the already crowded market of LCD HDTVs, with its razor thin margins, doesn't need Apple to step into it. Better fix the existing AppleTV and allow users to hook it into the existing set, than try to sell them a new TV. Early adopters, those who actually are more likely to buy the AppleTV, already own their TV set.

I think it's just for indications of what the thing is doing, think maybe an iPod size screen. I think it would be nice to be able to control it for music playback without burning my projector bulb's hours.

Originally Posted by dr_lha

Works the same way in the USA too, but the iPhone isn't subsidized so you just have to pay full price, there is no "upgrade". That "certain period of time" in the USA is generally at the end of your 2 year contract, but I believe some cell phone providers will allow you to upgrade earlier if you extend your contract another 2 years.

The iPhone is functionally subsidized, just in a very unusual way for phones.

[Charko]

Originally Posted by Wings

C'mon Mr. Sachs, Apple will be above $205 in less than 30 days.

That was my first reaction.

Their target is ludicrously conservative, and will only be accurate if there is a serious recession, otherwise it could be as little as a week or two before it's overtaken.

[Padriac]

Well, theoretically your TV is doing this with AppleTV content, and probably better than those cheap DVD players. If your TV is in 1080i mode and you play something and the TV does not change resolutions = your TV is upconverting to 1080i. This will only look so good given the limitations of your source, of course. Full res rips from handbrake look pretty good to me.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by hanabi

In Europe, mobile phone customers are used to getting free mobile phone upgrades and also significantly discounted mobile phone upgrades after a certain period of time, without having to purchase a new phone outright.

Sounds totally environmentally irresponsible to me! What does this kind of upgrade behavior do to toxicity levels in garbage dumps in Europe?

It always amuses me that the Europeans view themselves as oh-so environmentally responsible ("we're for Kyoto and Bali and all that good stuff"), and yet, do things like this!

[Hattig]

Yay, a screen on the Apple TV would make it a far more usable device for music, 'cos I don't want my TV on when I'm listening to music. If the device has a decent small music browser display on the front it would be a viable alternative to the Squeezebox (although this will still have far superior circuitry). Oh, add support for FLAC as a second lossless format eh?

As for the video playback capability ...

1) Support for full HD decode (i.e., 40mbps streams)
2) Best of breed upscaling
3) Best of breed HQV test results
4) Support for more codecs by default (hey, they don't want to play nice with cheap video downloads via iTunes, so who cares, support divx, etc, the '360 and PS3 are getting this.
5) HDMI 1.3a output (dunno if it already has this)

[freelander51]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

[...]in addition to an Apple TV overhaul during the second half of the year.

[...]
Meanwhile, the analyst's Asian contacts have also led him to believe that "Apple will be making changes to Apple TV" sometime in the second half of 2008 "which could include an LCD display."

Maybe they should first and foremost kiss and make up with NBC/Universal

W/o BSG and Heroes I dont see many early adopters forking out the money again - and I REALLY DONT want to Bittorrent my content. Jaysus - you have honest customers here and we are driven into illegality.

[freelander51]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Sounds totally environmentally irresponsible to me! What does this kind of upgrade behavior do to toxicity levels in garbage dumps in Europe?

It always amuses me that the Europeans view themselves as oh-so environmentally responsible ("we're for Kyoto and Bali and all that good stuff"), and yet, do things like this!

Have you ever heard about donating the handsets to charity ? They get refurbished and then sold onto to less fortunate states in the southern hemisphere, where those phone CAN and DO make a difference. As there is no phone manufacturing down there no jobs get lost either. Jobs that can get lost by overprotective states from the north if you catch my drift. Lets just call the product cotton...

What do you do with your old phones ?

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by freelander51

Have you ever heard about donating the handsets to charity ? They get refurbished and then sold onto to less fortunate states in the southern hemisphere, where those phone CAN and DO make a difference. As there is no phone manufacturing down there no jobs get lost either. Jobs that can get lost by overprotective states from the north if you catch my drift. Lets just call the product cotton...

What do you do with your old phones ?

Oh, I donate it. And, by the tone of your question, I am sure you do too.

What does the average European do? Do you have any data?

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

"Apple will refresh its entire Mac line-up throughout 2008, but information about the potential launch of a subnotebook was scarce, with one supplier saying that the product may be pushed out, citing possible design issues," he added."

Oh, really?

There never was a "subnotebook"!

What do you mean "was"? There are many many sources saying a subnotebook is likely some time next year. We'll see if it happens in January, later in the year, or turns out to be completely bogus.

I think the real question about one is not if it will happen, but when.

[satchmo]

Originally Posted by Thataboy

I was really expecting a successor to AppleTV in January. My gut said that AppleTV and her neglected cousin Mac Mini would be sort of merged and revamped. I guess I'll hold out til then!

Frankly I'm surprised there's even going to be second version of the AppleTV. I thought this "hobby" was done given Apple's issues with NBC and overall lacklustre sales.

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by satchmo

Frankly I'm surprised there's even going to be second version of the AppleTV. I thought this "hobby" was done given Apple's issues with NBC and overall lacklustre sales.

Really? This is likely the future of online viewing, despite the limitations of the aTV the biggest thing holding it back is that it's more a product of the future than of the present. It's only a hobby at this point because they're waiting for the market to catch up - even if the aTV was the perfect product today, it still wouldn't sell that much because it will take a couple years for demand to build up.

You don't think there will be huge TV and movie viewing via a box like this? Or you think that apple will roll over and play dead, and give away this whole market to someone else?

[Steve45]

I talked a guy at the AT&T store (cus the apple store people are clueless about anything with the contract. The AT&T guy had to call into headquarters but eventually got me an answer). While they would not speculate as to what would happen with a future product launch, I posed the hypothetical that I owned a 4GB iPhone and wanted to upgrade to the 8GB iPhone. If that was the case, I could buy the 8GB iPhone and would just have to renew my contract for 2 years from the day of the new activation. I could then call AT&T and release my old iPhone to either sell or give to someone else, but this person upon activation of the cell phone part (cus the rest of it would still be activated from me) would have to sign their own 2 year contract from that day. So as long as you are planning on on staying with at&t, you can upgrade and switch iPhones all you want, it will just keep pushing back the end date of your phone, to to 2 years from the last upgrade.

I am sure that if apple releases a new phone, you will have to extend your contract to use it, as it will mean more money going apple's way, but they will let you buy a new one when it comes out without having to pay any sort of cancelation fee on your old one.

[Ireland]

Jeeze Ireland, that's a good idea isn't it? Yes it is.

Actually, like you have being saying before though, plasma is a better choice right now.

Yeah, I agree with me