Piper sees iTunes rentals, new breed of Apple touch games in 08

[AppleInsider]

For Apple, 2007 may in some ways represent the very beginning of a new standard in innovation, with 2008 likely giving way to a slew of new Mac models in addition to fresh initiatives like an iTunes movie rental service and a new class of touch-based games, according to investment bank Piper Jaffray.

Joining fellow analysts at UBS and American Technology Research who also published updates on Apple on Monday, analyst Gene Munster issued his own Macworld preview in a research note to clients.

Sharing sentiments first expressed by AppleInsider last month, the analyst said his checks lead him to believe that come January, Apple will 'put the Mac back in Macworld.'

"We believe the timing is right for Apple to update most of its Macs. Some models may only see minor specification upgrades to newer, faster Intel processors. The Mac Pro, for example, will likely benefit from the launch of the new Penryn-based Xeon processors," Munster wrote. "The MacBook may see minor upgrades to its storage capacity and/or processor speed, and the MacBook Pro may also receive minor specification upgrades, but we also expect Apple to expand the MacBook lineup with one new model."

That one new model is expected to be the company's "smallest portable ever," according to the analyst. While he was initially expecting an ultra-portable device with an 8- to 11-inch screen, he said his latest round of checks now leads him to believe the device will sport a display of approximately 11- to 13-inches.

"That said, we continue to expect the 'ultra-portable' MacBook to be Apple's thinnest and lightest ever. While it may not be as small as we originally expected, we believe this could be the most consumer-friendly way to expand its current lineup of MacBook portables," Munster told clients. "It will likely be priced between the $1,099 consumer level MacBook and the $1,999 MacBook Pro."

One contributor to the smaller form factor could be the use of NAND-based solid state storage, the analyst added. He noted that in November, Samsung introduced a 64GB drive which he believes Apple would consider large enough to include in a new portable.

"Finally, there are reports that the new portable may include a unique touchpad, possibly using the same multitouch technology used in the iPhone and iPod touch," he wrote.

Meanwhile, Munster and his team also expect Apple to announce new content partnerships with one or more movie studios, which may involve the launch of iTunes movie rentals.

"If Apple begins renting movie downloads on iTunes, we expect a related software update to the Apple TV enabling movie rentals direct to the Apple TV. In fact, the Apple TV software currently includes 'iTunes Store settings' in its settings menu, but the option is essentially inactive," he wrote. "We expect this setting to be activated soon; users will likely be able to log into their iTunes accounts directly from the Apple TV and browse movie rentals, then download them directly to their Apple TV."

Though admittedly short on hard evidence to support his theory, Munster said it seems as if Apple is delaying the use of the iTunes setting -- and the feature in general -- until it has secured rental deals with enough movie studios. He said Apple may announce such a deal with one or more movie studios at Macworld, and may simultaneously announce movie rentals on iTunes and the Apple TV.

"Indeed, we have been expecting iTunes movie rentals for nearly 1 year, but due to pricing disagreements and DRM-related issues, the studios and Apple have not yet come to an agreement," he explained.

Another possibility for Macworld is the announcement of iPhone and iPod touch games, according to the analyst. He says it's likely that Apple will make games available on those multi-touch devices as it has with the original iPods, but the timing of the initiative is not clear.

"Rather than simply porting iPod games over to the touchscreen devices and making them available for purchase in the iTunes Store, we believe Apple is developing a new class of games that will make special use of the touchscreens," Munster told clients. "While such an announcement would be relatively insignificant, on a high level it is important to keep in mind that the iPhone has many capabilities that are not being fully utilized, and unique touch-based games are one example."

The Piper Jaffray analyst expects Apple will regularly update the iPhone with new features every few months, including an important update in February when the iPhone is opened to third-party applications. "At this time we also expect Apple to introduce contextual searching on the iPhone similar to Spotlight in Leopard," he wrote.

Munster, who does not expect any news of a 3G iPhone or Mac tablet at Macworld, maintained his Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of Apple.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[melgross]

If Apple does include the 64 Gb SSD, the price will have to be at the $1999 range, as that drive itself costs about$1100 retail, which is the same price as the lower one in his range.

So, will this be a premium priced pro machine, or perhaps a lower consumer model with 32 GB SSD, or even a 1.8" (slow) HDD?

[parky]

This statement :-

"In fact, the Apple TV software currently includes 'iTunes Store settings' in its settings menu, but the option is essentially inactive," he wrote."

Is rubbish, the iTunes setting actually controls the Movie Trailers and TV Shows that you can see on the Apple TV, rather than just seeing the USA content you get content for your own country.

[reboylin]

It appears Piper is naming every rumor with enough hedging that they can brag later. I believe the MacBook line will get a new, thinner, case design with an annodized aluminum finish and LED powered screens. There will not be a NAND substitute for a HD, nor will it drop the DVD drive IMHO. They will be lighter and thinner with more touch pad functions; but the ultra compact portable will await further Intel advances and cheaper NAND, IMHO.

The Pro line should see new case designs as well. I used the plural in hopes Apple will expand the line downward in price, perhaps with a single 4-core chip model. We could see what will happen to the Mac mini as well.

I'm beginning to think we'll not see anything new about the iPhone at Macworld. The advances in functionality, games, software, and APIs should come soon enough in a separate dog and pony show. The iPod line could also be absent, save for the announcement of a movie rentals service.

I'm always amazed at how much people think Jobs can squeeze into 1.5 hours. He'll do the usual annual report, Leopard news and commercial demos which will expand due to the iPhone performance news. You can only show off so much in the time allotted; and Jobs usually limits it to two new hardware items at most. That's why I don't expect new monitors although they should be coming soon and would be fitting should the Pro line update appear. Heck, now that I'm thinking negatives, the whole Pro line may await a separate announcement later. Now that would really bum me out.

[TenoBell]

If Apple does include the 64 Gb SSD, the price will have to be at the $1999 range, as that drive itself costs about$1100 retail, which is the same price as the lower one in his range.

Apple wouldn't be paying retail.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Apple wouldn't be paying retail.

Clearly not, but the question is, how much will Apple be paying, and how much will Apple mark it up? If they pay $250 each and price that part of the computer at $500, then that's still a huge proportion of the retail price of whatever computer it goes into.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Apple wouldn't be paying retail.

WE will be paying retail! Therefore, Apple will be charging US that price.

That's going to be the same way Dell must do it.

[minderbinder]

I'd be shocked if apple releases a laptop with flash instead of a conventional hard drive in the next year. It's simply too expensive at this point.

iTunes rentals plus an aTV update would have HUGE potential to give that whole section of apple's business a boost. I hope we see it sooner rather than later.

[TenoBell]

WE will be paying retail! Therefore, Apple will be charging US that price.

Ah I see what you are saying. Apple did not charge us retail when the iPod nano began to use flash, but we shall see.

[Clive At Five]

Shut up shut up shut up!!! Look at yourselves. Always hanging off every word of this analyist, whose main focus, believe it or not, IS NOT APPLE. Meanwhile, we have 5 - 10 rumor sites whose only job is to collect and share Apple rumors and news. Who would you believe -- especially when part of the "research" these analysts do is peruse the rumor sites?? Good grief, some of you are seriously led like sheep!

Originally Posted by reboylin

It appears Piper is naming every rumor with enough hedging that they can brag later.

Exactly. And even though Gene isn't PERSONALLY invested in Apple, Piper is... and Gene's bonus is undoubtedly determined on how well he "predicts" the action of the stock. However, it's obvious that these analysts have no clue when or where these products will appear, and keep repeating them over and over until Apple has so much pressure to produce that its stock will suffer if they do not. Can you imagine what would've happened if Apple had not announced an iPhone last MWSF? I can't even imagine.

These analysts are full of it and they know it, but they come up with excuses for themselves time and time again. How long are you all going to keep believing them?

Anyone with access to these rumor sites can conjure up a realistic enough lie and credit it to "inside sources" and "supply line checks..." especially if you're paid for it.

Analysts are a sham and I can guarantee that the best minds on this board could collaborate to come up with a better predictive analysis than this poser.

-Clive

[melgross]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

Clearly not, but the question is, how much will Apple be paying, and how much will Apple mark it up? If they pay $250 each and price that part of the computer at $500, then that's still a huge proportion of the retail price of whatever computer it goes into.

I don't know what Dell is paying for that drive, but as they are charging $1,070 for it, it must be a lot. There is no way that Apple can get it any cheaper than Dell can, unless the price of the drive drops a small amount by January.

[Clive At Five]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

Analysts are a sham and I can guarantee that the best minds on this board could collaborate to come up with a better predictive analysis than this poser.

This being said, I, at this point, have become convinced that there will be some sort of notebook announcement. 9to5mac have proven their reliability (predicting the fat-boy nano and even procuring a pre-release picture) and they say there will be one, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt. (They say there's something weird about the trackpad too. We'll have to wait and see about that one.)

Mac Pros have to be refreshed. They're so old. It's obvious to anyone who follows Apple at all that this will be the case. How come not a single analyst has reported on it? Because none of the rumor sites have reported such a thing. So the Mac Pro refresh might not be monumental, but neither was the iMac refresh not so long ago, yet the analysts gobbled that one up, as the rumors started spreading on AI and other mac sites.

Just further evidence to support that Analysts just repeat what they hear so we should not be repeating what we hear back from them. Otherwise it will just be an intesifying echo of the same information with nothing new to add except for whatever embelishing details the analysts decide to add.

Please, AI. Stop reporting on this crap. If it's a slow news day, let it be one. Just don't give these nobodies the time of day they never deserve.

-Clive

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Ah I see what you are saying. Apple did not charge us retail when the iPod nano began to use flash, but we shall see.

They did, but Apple had locked up a lot of Flash as you might remember, and so they got it for less than most other companies could, buying much smaller amounts. This is different. Apple will be competing with all of the other companies who want to buy this drive. High demand means high prices, at least, at first, until supply catches up.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

This being said, I, at this point, have become convinced that there will be some sort of notebook announcement. 9to5mac have proven their reliability (predicting the fat-boy nano and even procuring a pre-release picture) and they say there will be one, so I will give them the benefit of the doubt. (They say there's something weird about the trackpad too. We'll have to wait and see about that one.)

Mac Pros have to be refreshed. They're so old. It's obvious to anyone who follows Apple at all that this will be the case. How come not a single analyst has reported on it? Because none of the rumor sites have reported such a thing. So the Mac Pro refresh might not be monumental, but neither was the iMac refresh not so long ago, yet the analysts gobbled that one up, as the rumors started spreading on AI and other mac sites.

Just further evidence to support that Analysts just repeat what they hear so we should not be repeating what we hear back from them. Otherwise it will just be an intesifying echo of the same information with nothing new to add except for whatever embelishing details the analysts decide to add.

Please, AI. Stop reporting on this crap. If it's a slow news day, let it be one. Just don't give these nobodies the time of day they never deserve.

-Clive

Stop it already Clive. Your rant doesn't make any more sense than what you are ranting against. These guys aren't always right, but, whether you like it or not, they do have sources.

It is a big difference between some people on a rumors site wishing, and praying, that something will come true, at some time, and these guys saying that it looks as though Apple will produce a device, and the time will be now.

There is nothing ever said on this site that has come true that has ever been out of line with has been expected by any nornal assumption.

All of the far out ideas are quickly forgotten.

[tmedia1]

I'm looking forward to any MacBook Pro updates. I ready to upgrade today, but will wait to see what January brings...

[Clive At Five]

Originally Posted by melgross

Stop it already Clive. Your rant doesn't make any more sense than what you are ranting against. These guys aren't always right, but, whether you like it or not, they do have sources.

Which, if they want to produce a believeable report, they should cite. That is rule #1 in writing a trustworthy analysis.

I can't imagine what would've happened had I writen a thesis for my physics degree which didn't cite a single source, especially out where the science gets shady and people's reputations are on the line! If you're trying to convince people of something that would otherwise be speculatory, you MUST CITE SOURCES. No ifs ands or buts.

Perfect example: Analysts are always talking about "supply-line checks" -- what compenents? What manufacturers? It's not a breech of customer privacy for a company to say "We're shipping a lot more 16GB NAND units than ever before." It would certainly make a report more trustworthy, especially if the manufacturer was a known supplier for Apple. No one has to share any confidential info. Yet these sources are never shared and are only presumed by the audience of the analysis to exist.

Originally Posted by melgross

There is nothing ever said on this site that has come true that has ever been out of line with has been expected by any nornal assumption.

Then why does AI bombard us with REDUNDANT ARTICLES of what they have ALREADY REPORTED ON?! We don't need to hear it again from people who heard from you.

You know what else is funny? That Gene Munster changed his prediction this week, and it now echos exactly what last week's MacRumor's "rumor roundup
" found regarding the Sub-Notebook. If that's not a 'coincidence,' I don't know what is.

-Clive

[lantzn]

Originally Posted by tmedia1

I'm looking forward to any MacBook Pro updates. I ready to upgrade today, but will wait to see what January brings...

Me to, I want my MBP 17" with LED.

[TenoBell]

I don't know what Dell is paying for that drive, but as they are charging $1,070 for it, it must be a lot. There is no way that Apple can get it any cheaper than Dell can, unless the price of the drive drops a small amount by January.

Its true that Apple does not have the advantage in laptops that it has in iPods.

32GB is really not enough. OS X and iLife take up around 14 gigs themselves.

[mh71]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Its true that Apple does not have the advantage in laptops that it has in iPods.

32GB is really not enough. OS X and iLife take up around 14 gigs themselves.

IIRC, Apple is the number one consumer of NAND memory, gobbling up something like 25% of production. Add to that that Apple also has a reputation for negotiating well and decreasing their costs over time.

[ncee]

Not sure where I heard this, but II love the sound of it.

This person said "Take the iphone, turn is sidways, make it a bunch bigger, and add a keyboard " "and you have one of the new exciting products Apple will be announcing at MacExpo this year"

He's sure (I'm not sure why) - that the touch screen MacBook Pro will be anounced in January. I said, it might happen, but it's still a year or so away. He smiled and said "We'll see"

Skip

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

Which, if they want to produce a believeable report, they should cite. That is rule #1 in writing a trustworthy analysis.

I can't imagine what would've happened had I writen a thesis for my physics degree which didn't cite a single source, especially out where the science gets shady and people's reputations are on the line! If you're trying to convince people of something that would otherwise be speculatory, you MUST CITE SOURCES. No ifs ands or buts.

Perfect example: Analysts are always talking about "supply-line checks" -- what compenents? What manufacturers? It's not a breech of customer privacy for a company to say "We're shipping a lot more 16GB NAND units than ever before." It would certainly make a report more trustworthy, especially if the manufacturer was a known supplier for Apple. No one has to share any confidential info. Yet these sources are never shared and are only presumed by the audience of the analysis to exist.



Then why does AI bombard us with REDUNDANT ARTICLES of what they have ALREADY REPORTED ON?! We don't need to hear it again from people who heard from you.

You know what else is funny? That Gene Munster changed his prediction this week, and it now echos exactly what last week's MacRumor's "rumor roundup
" found regarding the Sub-Notebook. If that's not a 'coincidence,' I don't know what is.

-Clive

Clive, I understand what you want. But don't you realize that they can't do citations? What they do is off the books, so to speak. If they cite who, when, and where, those people will be in a world of trouble. These are anonymous sources. They could lose their jobs. no doubt they are in positions oftentime to have signed NDA's.

But, if you read what they release, they do state what is happening in the supply lines. They can also look at data from legally required filings.

But, what is released to the public is NOT their report. It's a brief summation, like the summation in front of a scientific article that gives a bare bones outline telling what the report is about. The highlights. How many times has this been discussed? If you want the full report, which take pages, then you should pay for it. That's what their business is all about. That's where the detailed information that investors use to look at whether the reports are credible, and for other details that may make their investments more reliable.

You don't REALLY think they troll the rumors sites, do you?

Sometimes we come up with an idea here, and possibly, four years later Apple comes out with something similar, but how many ideas did we throw out that never arrived? Most of them, but we seem to only remember the lucky guesses.

AI simply gives the news. If we, including you, didn't like to read about them, and argue the ppints, then they wouldn't publish them as often. I get e-mails from Forbes every day, about a dozen, all about Apple, or related subjects. Guess what a fair number of them are about? Yes, you're right, the analyst reports.

And that's not a Mac rumors site, it's a serious business and investing site.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by mh71

IIRC, Apple is the number one consumer of NAND memory, gobbling up something like 25% of production. Add to that that Apple also has a reputation for negotiating well and decreasing their costs over time.

This isn't unfinished memory. It's a completed product, much more than bare board level memory chips.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by ncee

Not sure where I heard this, but II love the sound of it.

This person said "Take the iphone, turn is sidways, make it a bunch bigger, and add a keyboard " "and you have one of the new exciting products Apple will be announcing at MacExpo this year"

He's sure (I'm not sure why) - that the touch screen MacBook Pro will be anounced in January. I said, it might happen, but it's still a year or so away. He smiled and said "We'll see"

Skip

Talk to Clive about citations.

[Wiggin]

Originally Posted by melgross

This isn't unfinished memory. It's a completed product, much more than bare board level memory chips.

If I recall correctly, the first version of the iPod mini used a microdrive for storage. At the time, microdrives were still quite expensive. Yet Apple was able to sell the mini at such a low price that people were buying the mini only to tear it apart to get the microdrive out. So, Apple obviously negotiated a price for the microdrive that allowed them to build the rest of the iPod around it and still sell the complete product for less that the retail price of the microdrive itself.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Wiggin

If I recall correctly, the first version of the iPod mini used a microdrive for storage. At the time, microdrives were still quite expensive. Yet Apple was able to sell the mini at such a low price that people were buying the mini only to tear it apart to get the microdrive out. So, Apple obviously negotiated a price for the microdrive that allowed them to build the rest of the iPod around it and still sell the complete product for less that the retail price of the microdrive itself.

That's true. Actually, all iPod minis used microdrives or other brand 1" CF-type hard drive. iPod nano is when they switched to chips, and that's how the size was reduced so much.

But most of those microdrives were supposed to certain modes diisabled so that people couldn't cannibalize and put them in something else.

[joek]

Originally Posted by melgross

You don't REALLY think they troll the rumors sites, do you?

Read this published by Munster today:

he said his latest round of checks now leads him to believe the device will sport a display of approximately 11- to 13-inches.

"That said, we continue to expect the 'ultra-portable' MacBook to be Apple's thinnest and lightest ever. While it may not be as small as we originally expected, we believe this could be the most consumer-friendly way to expand its current lineup of MacBook portables," Munster told clients. "It will likely be [b]priced between the $1,099 consumer level MacBook and the $1,999 MacBook Pro.[b]"

One contributor to the smaller form factor could be the use of NAND-based solid state storage, the analyst added. He noted that in November, Samsung introduced a 64GB drive which he believes Apple would consider large enough to include in a new portable.

"Finally, there are reports that the new portable may include a unique touchpad, possibly using the same multitouch technology used in the iPhone and iPod touch," he wrote.

Read this summary of rumors published on MacRumors last week

MacScoop: 12", Ultra-Thin, Optical Drive, Dual Core, $1700-$1800
Appleinsider: 13", aluminum, 50% lighter, Slim, NAND Flash, LED backlit, No Optical Drive
CNBC: 12", 50% Thinner, NAND Flash only (no HDD). $1500
9to5mac: "something strange about the touchpad"

It's obvious they do troll the rumor sites.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Wiggin

If I recall correctly, the first version of the iPod mini used a microdrive for storage. At the time, microdrives were still quite expensive. Yet Apple was able to sell the mini at such a low price that people were buying the mini only to tear it apart to get the microdrive out. So, Apple obviously negotiated a price for the microdrive that allowed them to build the rest of the iPod around it and still sell the complete product for less that the retail price of the microdrive itself.

Yeah, but Microdrives weren't, and still aren't, doing so well in the sales department. Apple likely sold more Microdrives in one quarter than was sold all the years prior to that quarter, together.

This is different.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by joek

Read this published today:



Read this summary of rumors published last week



It's obvious they do troll the rumor sites.

So? That proves nothing. This idea has been in circulation for over a month. It's just as likely the rumors sites picked this up from the analysts reports. You know, they read also. They get their rumors from reports, not from thin air.

[joek]

Originally Posted by melgross

So? That proves nothing. This idea has been in circulation for over a month. It's just as likely the rumors sites picked this up from the analysts reports. You know, they read also. They get their rumors from reports, not from thin air.

So where did Munster get the "unique trackpad" rumor? 9to5mac was the first and only one to report that. It's obvious to everyone else that Munster got it from 9to5mac or from the rumor summary.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by joek

So where did Munster get the "unique trackpad" rumor? 9to5mac was the first and only one to report that. It's obvious to everyone else that Munster got it from 9to5mac or from the rumor summary.

no, it's not. Obvious to someone who want to believe it, maybe. Do you now where they got it from? No, you don't. They could very well have read it somewhere first themselves.

In fact, most all of the rumors I've ever read started from some report at a more news-like site, that read it from a business report. It then filters down to here, and other rumors sites, except for a couple of trashy ones like MOSR, which must have a staff of twenty just coming up with stupid things to write.

[joek]

Originally Posted by melgross

no, it's not. Obvious to someone who want to believe it, maybe. Do you now where they got it from? No, you don't. They could very well have read it somewhere first themselves.

9to5mac has proven they have their own sources (photos of the fat nano).

So, just say it outright if its true: You really don't believe that Gene Munster whose job it is to follow Apple products and releases does not read any of the rumor sites, who have accurately predicted many new releases?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by joek

9to5mac has proven they have their own sources (photos of the fat nano).

So, just say it outright if its true: You really don't believe that Gene Munster whose job it is to follow Apple products and releases does not read any of the rumor sites, who have accurately predicted many new releases?

Gee, how many times should I say it? No, I don't think he even cares they exist.

And if a rumors site has sources, you don't think he has better ones?

No, don't bother to answer.

[joek]

Originally Posted by melgross

Gee, how many times should I say it? No, I don't think he even cares they exist.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...er_rumors.html

Munster, referencing the MacRumors buyers guide, added that it has been nearly 300 days since Apple has had anything to say about its top-selling desktop system, well beyond the average 168 days between previous upgrade cycles.

[pmcd]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

iTunes rentals plus an aTV update would have HUGE potential to give that whole section of apple's business a boost. I hope we see it sooner rather than later.

Why would I buy an Apple TV in order to rent movies that I can already get via cable? Is there some advantage that isn't obvious?

The video issues are different than audio. A 3 minute song costs very little to make yet yields just as much entertainment as a 1.5 hour movie. Then there's the buy versus rent problem. Do people want to view videos more than once? Certainly some shows would fall into that category.

The reason the iPod has become so popular is that mp3 songs were easy to steal. At 99cents it's no longer clear if stealing is worth it. I guess that's why iTunes is popular. Now with video the price becomes an issue and it's not quite as easy to steal a 1-2 gig file. If it were, and if the Apple TV could play it, then there would be more out there. A lot of getting stuff for free drives sales. That's why recorders have been popular and the whole MediaPC/DiVX player thing.

Hardware sales have been driven in large part by the ability to get stuff for free. As that dries up hardware sales will drop and that is why I don't see the Apple TV (or similar devices) as being the way to go. I always felt the Mini was the right approach to the HDTV screen popularity increase.

It's all hard to say. I don't think anyone knows. The one thing that seems sure is that people do not want to spend as much on digital entertainment as the media companies dream of.

philip

[melgross]

Originally Posted by joek

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...er_rumors.html

Ok, so he read their buyers guide. Big deal.

I knew you were trying to maneuver me into it.