Needham opens coverage of Apple with "buy" rating

[AppleInsider]

Needham & Co has reinitiated its investment coverage of Apple, noting that the Mac maker has moved past the "old" iPod to prosper with the iPhone and the Mac.

Becoming the latest financial institution to track Apple in its portfolio, Needham & Co on Thursday issued its first note to investors analyzing the electronics giant courtesy of analyst Charlie Wolf.

The report issues a strong buy recommendation based on Apple's multi-pronged approach to its products and the underlying potential of the iPhone. The Cupertino, Calif.-based firm is no longer dependent on either the Mac or the iPod alone to succeed and is currently enjoying success on multiple fronts.

The iPod is "yesterday's news," Wolf says, referring to its now established position in the market. "Now the Apple story is all about the Mac and the iPhone."

He especially singles out Apple's inaugural cellular device, noting that its heavily software-based platform may be the key to its long-term success. As Apple can continually upgrade the iPhone without replacing the device itself, the handheld may remain the "gold standard" for as long as Apple wants, the analyst told clients.

Mac sales have also been helped significantly by the ability to run Windows and may help Apple more than double its world marketshare from 3 to 7 percent sometime in the next decade, he added.

Needham has set its 12-month share target at $235.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[aaarrrgggh]

This news is a little overshadowed by Orange's report of only 70k units sold the first month+. Had hoped to see the number come in a little over 120k, personally.

Looks like it is time for a € price cut.

[melgross]

It is disappointing.

I hope new models, and the SDK, will help.

[satchmo]

Originally Posted by melgross

It is disappointing.

I hope new models, and the SDK, will help.

Let's hope Jobs has this SDK ahead of schedule at MacWorld.
This Google Android alliance doesn't need any more of a head start.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by satchmo

Let's hope Jobs has this SDK ahead of schedule at MacWorld.
This Google Android alliance doesn't need any more of a head start.

It's very possible that a beta, at least, may be released. Rumors are that major developers have had one in their hands at least two months now. That's certainly possible. This is a fairly simple device, compared to an open computer platform like the Mac itself.

[gigi]

may help Apple more than double its world marketshare from 3 to 7 percent sometime in the next decade, he added.

In recent news we learn that the market share is already near 8%. But I think it's for US only. That's why.

[Walter Slocombe]

"Now the Apple story is all about the Mac and the iPhone."

Now THERES a Meme that bears repeating!

[monstrosity]

If apple released the iphone at the same time worldwide, I'm sure they would have more European sales.

By the time the iphone hit the UK, it was already old news, and I was saving up for the iPhone mk2 instead.

[backtomac]

Originally Posted by satchmo

Let's hope Jobs has this SDK ahead of schedule at MacWorld.
This Google Android alliance doesn't need any more of a head start.

From what I've read, Android may not have that great of a head start.

As an aside, I recently talked with the developers of a web based electronic medical record and they say they are eager to see develope for the iPhone. This is somewhat significant tin that the Mac platform is a very minor player in this area which is mostly dominated by windows.

[augur]

Yet another daily example of the "pump and dump" strategy that Wall Street suckers people in with.

WorldCom, Enron, etc. Haven't we seen this before 100 times already?

Buy the product, use the product, but who cares what a bunch of theives think? Their objective is to milk Apple to death, and bleed you indirectly by profiting on your Apple purchases. A dumb thief robs people with a gun. A clever thief uses a pen.

"The stock is only $200, but we expect it to go to $235, so why don't you buy some?" We take a percentage, and sell the stock to you we paid less than $200 for. If it never reaches $235, they buy it back for $150. Why can't people see how rigged this game is? It's like the lottery; an occasional wins masks how many people are getting ripped off. The odds are against you. It's an "insider's" game.

Pump and dump.

[satchmo]

Originally Posted by augur

Yet another daily example of the "pump and dump" strategy that Wall Street suckers people in with.

WorldCom, Enron, etc. Haven't we seen this before 100 times already?

Buy the product, use the product, but who cares what a bunch of theives think? Their objective is to milk Apple to death, and bleed you indirectly by profiting on your Apple purchases. A dumb thief robs people with a gun. A clever thief uses a pen.

"The stock is only $200, but we expect it to go to $235, so why don't you buy some?" We take a percentage, and sell the stock to you we paid less than $200 for. If it never reaches $235, they buy it back for $150. Why can't people see how rigged this game is? It's like the lottery; an occasional wins masks how many people are getting ripped off. The odds are against you. It's an "insider's" game.

Pump and dump.

Of course they have a vested interest. As with all investments, do your own homework.
But one is only a sucker if you lose money. Currently, I'm up big time, so I'm a happy camper.

[monstrosity]

Originally Posted by augur

Yet another daily example of the "pump and dump" strategy that Wall Street suckers people in with.

WorldCom, Enron, etc. Haven't we seen this before 100 times already?

Buy the product, use the product, but who cares what a bunch of theives think? Their objective is to milk Apple to death, and bleed you indirectly by profiting on your Apple purchases. A dumb thief robs people with a gun. A clever thief uses a pen.

"The stock is only $200, but we expect it to go to $235, so why don't you buy some?" We take a percentage, and sell the stock to you we paid less than $200 for. If it never reaches $235, they buy it back for $150. Why can't people see how rigged this game is? It's like the lottery; an occasional wins masks how many people are getting ripped off. The odds are against you. It's an "insider's" game.

Pump and dump.

Ride the waves, or just lay back n bob up n down on your lylo for the long haul.

[Clive At Five]

Oh great, that's all we need. Another dirty stinking analyst to read MacRumors and rerelease the news for AI to pick up again.

Like Augur said. It's all a pump and dump stratedgy. Analysts only "dig up facts" that will raise AAPL because the better the stock perform, the more they get paid. I feel bad for the idiots who listen to them.

Yeah yeah, Melgross, I know what you're going to say, that I'm an ignorant fool for thinking an Analyst's job is so trite and corrupted. I don't want to hear it again. Analysts are a waste of our time, as Mac Rumor mongers and should not be reported on. 90% of their info comes straight from the pages we read daily, which is evidenced by Shaw Wu's recent balk once Mac Rumors posted a sub-notbook rumor recap. He changed his analysis to nearly match almost all of MR's points. Coincidence? Only the naive would think so.

I typically think highly of your posts, Melgross. Don't let me down by being one of those niave people.

-Clive

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

Oh great, that's all we need. Another dirty stinking analyst to read MacRumors and rerelease the news for AI to pick up again.

Like Augur said. It's all a pump and dump stratedgy. Analysts only "dig up facts" that will raise AAPL because the better the stock perform, the more they get paid. I feel bad for the idiots who listen to them.

Yeah yeah, Melgross, I know what you're going to say, that I'm an ignorant fool for thinking an Analyst's job is so trite and corrupted. I don't want to hear it again. Analysts are a waste of our time, as Mac Rumor mongers and should not be reported on. 90% of their info comes straight from the pages we read daily, which is evidenced by Shaw Wu's recent balk once Mac Rumors posted a sub-notbook rumor recap. He changed his analysis to nearly match almost all of MR's points. Coincidence? Only the naive would think so.

I typically think highly of your posts, Melgross. Don't let me down by being one of those niave people.

-Clive

If you don't want to hear it again, then stop commenting.

I've been investing since I was 13 in 1963. I've heard it all, believe me.

[thebigapple]

Forget about these stats -isn't the year-end goal some 10 millions iPhones? I predict they've sold close to 4 million by now globally...

[Clive At Five]

While you've been investing longer than I, we've both been investors since a young age... Which makes me even more surprised that you believe those guys.

Number one rule about investing: Do all your own research.
Number two? Never trust what anyone else says about a stock.

-Clive

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

While you've been investing longer than I, we've both been investors since a young age... Which makes me even more surprised that you believe those guys.

Number one rule about investing: Do all your own research.
Number two? Never trust what anyone else says about a stock.

-Clive

Sure, and it's not that simple either.

[bigdaddyp]

Originally Posted by melgross

Sure, and it's not that simple either.

Ok so where does someone like me in my thirty's that now wants to start buying some stock begin? Ignore all analyst and rely only on my own research? Or take their advice under advisement.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

Number one rule about investing: Do all your own research.
Number two? Never trust what anyone else says about a stock.

Very good advice. But there is more to #2 than you are implying. There is a difference between never trust and completely ignore.
You would be a fool to discount the motives and biases of the annalysts, but it would also be foolish not to notice what they are saying.

Remember, there are tons of investors out there with money to invest. The vast majority do not follow Apple rumor sites and don't have time to spend hours researching every company they are going to invest in. It is a simple fact that some people do listen to these analyists regardless of what you may think of them. That can have an impact on demand and pricing of Apple stocks.

Wheather you think they are useful or not, you should consider them relevant, I believe...

[monstrosity]

IMO it's all about trying to predict what the sheep(analysts) AND/OR Apple are going to do next.

Utilize all available info, but know what to ignore and what not to ignore is the trick.
A diversely educated and technologically savvy human should be able to fit the pieces together and discard with reasonable accuracy the B***S*** that exists in the game.
That said, even the BS is influential. So many differing factors, intuition can often be the most suitable tool.

[augur]

Originally Posted by satchmo

Of course they have a vested interest. As with all investments, do your own homework.
But one is only a sucker if you lose money. Currently, I'm up big time, so I'm a happy camper.

Everybody says that when they are going up. They think it will last forever. Hence the old saying, "pride comes before the fall."

If you were wise, then you would get out now, but that is impossible. If you were wise, then you never would have gotten in.

You'll see. Been there, done that. I was once a fool too.

Btw, the wealth is an illusion. The more you "make," the more inflation you create. Your profit is also your expense. It's a vicious circle. The only way to win is to not play, but every new generation is suckered into playing. The more you manipulate your money, the less it will be worth. What could have been a tool becomes a weapon.

[augur]

Originally Posted by bigdaddyp

Ok so where does someone like me in my thirty's that now wants to start buying some stock begin? Ignore all analyst and rely only on my own research? Or take their advice under advisement.

See my previous post. Don't play! You cannot win. It's just an illusion. Pay off all your debts instead. And if you have no debts, then help someone else pay off theirs.

Investing is slavery by proxy, but it isn't just the slave that is enslaved, but also the slave-master.

In the modern world, people are slaves of themselves, since they own stocks while working for publicly-traded companies. The world has never been more absurd than it is today.

[one9deuce]

Bigdaddyp, pick some solid companies that are still growing and buy some shares. Then sit on them, or be "long" on them as investors put it. Augur, you sound like someone that did a lot of daytrading and got burned. I think your advice is good if you are in fact referring to daytrading.

[quinney]

Originally Posted by augur

I was once a fool too.

Congratulations on getting over it.

[satchmo]

Originally Posted by augur

Everybody says that when they are going up. They think it will last forever. Hence the old saying, "pride comes before the fall."

If you were wise, then you would get out now, but that is impossible. If you were wise, then you never would have gotten in.

You'll see. Been there, done that. I was once a fool too.

Btw, the wealth is an illusion. The more you "make," the more inflation you create. Your profit is also your expense. It's a vicious circle. The only way to win is to not play, but every new generation is suckered into playing. The more you manipulate your money, the less it will be worth. What could have been a tool becomes a weapon.

And I suppose you put all your money under a mattress.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Clive At Five

Oh great, that's all we need. Another dirty stinking analyst to read MacRumors and rerelease the news for AI to pick up again.

Like Augur said. It's all a pump and dump stratedgy. Analysts only "dig up facts" that will raise AAPL because the better the stock perform, the more they get paid. I feel bad for the idiots who listen to them.

Yeah yeah, Melgross, I know what you're going to say, that I'm an ignorant fool for thinking an Analyst's job is so trite and corrupted. I don't want to hear it again. Analysts are a waste of our time, as Mac Rumor mongers and should not be reported on. 90% of their info comes straight from the pages we read daily, which is evidenced by Shaw Wu's recent balk once Mac Rumors posted a sub-notbook rumor recap. He changed his analysis to nearly match almost all of MR's points. Coincidence? Only the naive would think so.

I typically think highly of your posts, Melgross. Don't let me down by being one of those niave people.

-Clive

I agree with you. Analysts are just slimy salesmen hiding behind the thin veneer of authenticity with gobbledygook they dig up in rumor sites, mathematical models and hype laden cons they can pull on institutions and the uninformed.

[augur]

Originally Posted by satchmo

And I suppose you put all your money under a mattress.

No. Why bother? It only has value if you spend it.

It was absurd to put money under a mattress, but it is more absurd to give somebody money and expect that they will give you more back. (2+2=5) If this was possible, then they would never need your money, since they could "grow" their own just as easily.

The absurdity doesn't end at the 2+2=5 equation; the person who is taking your money (the stock broker, banker or insurance saleman) actually believes the system works. It is the modern equivelent of alchemy intellectually. Instead of turning lead into gold, people believe that it is possible to turn 2+2 into 5. Eventually they discover that if 2+2=5, then 5=2+2, too.

We were all indoctrinated before we were educated. Money isn't real. It is a government created and (mis)regulated commodity.

Think Different.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by bigdaddyp

Ok so where does someone like me in my thirty's that now wants to start buying some stock begin? Ignore all analyst and rely only on my own research? Or take their advice under advisement.

First of all, make sure that the money you want to spend is not something that you need. It can't be money that, if lost, will cause too much pain.

Having said that, you should learn something about the economy, the industry you would like to invest in, and the companies themselves.

Then you have to look at how those companies fit into the industry, and economy as a whole.

Then try to find the cream of the industry, and invest in them. They will be the lowest risk, but might only have a fair return.

But, if the industry itself is high risk, even the lowest risk investments in it could still have a fair amount of risk.

It's difficult for an individual investor to find out the information needed. If one is new at it, one may not even know where to look.

This is why investment help is often needed. The problem is that brokers aren't necessarily a good source for information, as often, they don't know that much themselves.

There are investment newsletters that are helpful, but the best are expensive.

Sometimes the best investment advice is to invest in a good mutual fund. Check out the history, remembering that, as they themselves say, past performance is no guarantee of future success.

As someone who has been investing since I was 13, for 45 years now, it's difficult to explain my strategy, as it's been built up from experience over the years. I'm fairly heavily invested in Apple since mid 2004, but that could change. I really don't hold Apple close to my heart, it's just been a very good investment. I owned Apple during the '90's, off and on, but dumped all of my stocks in 2000, and didn't get back until 2002.

Right now is not the best investment climate for several reasons.

But, if Apple continues to experience a pullback, I might invest more.

I've got other investments, some doing well, some not so well. I bought a company called Clearwire when the IPO came out. It went up a fair amount, but I failed to sell. It went down quite a bit, then came up again, and I got out. Now it's far down. I got lucky there.

Despite what some people here say, analysts who have a good record are not to be ignored. These guys don't earn their living by just guessing, but what they say is just part of the equation. In the end, you are responsible for your actions, and no one else is to blame or applaud.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by augur

Everybody says that when they are going up. They think it will last forever. Hence the old saying, "pride comes before the fall."

If you were wise, then you would get out now, but that is impossible. If you were wise, then you never would have gotten in.

You'll see. Been there, done that. I was once a fool too.

Btw, the wealth is an illusion. The more you "make," the more inflation you create. Your profit is also your expense. It's a vicious circle. The only way to win is to not play, but every new generation is suckered into playing. The more you manipulate your money, the less it will be worth. What could have been a tool becomes a weapon.

You must have done poorly.

[augur]

Originally Posted by melgross

You must have done poorly.

The easiest way to get rich is to tell people what they want to hear. I stopped playing. The stockbroker-insurance man-banker tell people what they want to hear: I can make you rich!

People say Im crazy doing what Im doing
Well they give me all kinds of warnings to save me from ruin
When I say that Im o.k. well they look at me kind of strange
Surely youre not happy now you no longer play the game

People say Im lazy dreaming my life away
Well they give me all kinds of advice designed to enlighten me
When I tell them that Im doing fine watching shadows on the wall
Dont you miss the big time boy youre no longer on the ball

Im just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round
I really love to watch them roll
No longer riding on the merry-go-round
I just had to let it go

Ah, people asking questions lost in confusion
Well I tell them theres no problem, only solutions
Well they shake their heads and they look at me as if Ive lost my mind
I tell them theres no hurry
Im just sitting here doing time

Im just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round
I really love to watch them roll
No longer riding on the merry-go-round
I just had to let it go
I just had to let it go
I just had to let it go
-John Lennon

The love of money, the fear of death, the pride, the fear of tomorrow, etc., you may cling to it as securely as straw, but it is still straw in the end.

Maybe now you understand the difference between John Lennon and Paul McCartney. Paul couldn't let go, and neither can you, evidently. Not even a billion dollars will buy you the freedom from fear.

[bigdaddyp]

Originally Posted by melgross

You must have done poorly.

Doh! Replied to the wrong post.

[bigdaddyp]

Originally Posted by melgross

First of all, make sure that the money you want to spend is not something that you need. It can't be money that, if lost, will cause too much pain.

Having said that, you should learn something about the economy, the industry you would like to invest in, and the companies themselves.

Then you have to look at how those companies fit into the industry, and economy as a whole.

Then try to find the cream of the industry, and invest in them. They will be the lowest risk, but might only have a fair return.

But, if the industry itself is high risk, even the lowest risk investments in it could still have a fair amount of risk.

It's difficult for an individual investor to find out the information needed. If one is new at it, one may not even know where to look.

This is why investment help is often needed. The problem is that brokers aren't necessarily a good source for information, as often, they don't know that much themselves.

There are investment newsletters that are helpful, but the best are expensive.

Sometimes the best investment advice is to invest in a good mutual fund. Check out the history, remembering that, as they themselves say, past performance is no guarantee of future success.

As someone who has been investing since I was 13, for 45 years now, it's difficult to explain my strategy, as it's been built up from experience over the years. I'm fairly heavily invested in Apple since mid 2004, but that could change. I really don't hold Apple close to my heart, it's just been a very good investment. I owned Apple during the '90's, off and on, but dumped all of my stocks in 2000, and didn't get back until 2002.

Right now is not the best investment climate for several reasons.

But, if Apple continues to experience a pullback, I might invest more.

I've got other investments, some doing well, some not so well. I bought a company called Clearwire when the IPO came out. It went up a fair amount, but I failed to sell. It went down quite a bit, then came up again, and I got out. Now it's far down. I got lucky there.

Despite what some people here say, analysts who have a good record are not to be ignored. These guys don't earn their living by just guessing, but what they say is just part of the equation. In the end, you are responsible for your actions, and no one else is to blame or applaud.

Thanks Mel I appreciate you sharing.
Jim