Piper Jaffray reduces December quarter iPod estimate

***AppleInsider*** · 01-22-2008, 10:45 AM

Investment bank Piper Jaffray on Tuesday reduced its fiscal first quarter iPod sales estimate for Apple Inc. by approximately 2 million units in light of preliminary sales data that suggests December month sales fell slightly short of expectations.

"We have analyzed all three months of NPD data (Oct., Nov. & Dec.) for the quarter and found that it now suggests iPod units of 24 million to 25 million," analyst Gene Munster wrote in research note to clients.

He now estimates the Cupertino-based firm to announce sales of approximately 23.5 million iPods as part of its fiscal first quarter earnings report later Tuesday, which is below both Street consensus estimates of 24.7 million and his previous estimate of between 25 million and 26 million.

"We see this as a neutral data point," Munster wrote. "Bottom line: we continue to expect Apple to report a strong December quarter driven by in-line iPod results and outperformance in the Mac segment.

The analyst made no other changes to his model, maintaining a Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of the electronics company.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

Bageljoey · 01-22-2008, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The analyst made no other changes to his model, maintaining a Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of the electronics company.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

Well, it is nice to see some confidence!
When I saw the headline I thought they were going to use this as an excuse to lower expectations in light of recent general market conditions...

g3pro · 01-22-2008, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bageljoey

Well, it is nice to see some confidence!
When I saw the headline I thought they were going to use this as an excuse to lower expectations in light of recent general market conditions...

AAPL as low as $147 today makes a $250 price target look preposterous. Plus, you don't want to change price targets on the day of release of earnings.

GQB · 01-22-2008, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by g3pro

AAPL as low as $147 today makes a $250 price target look preposterous. Plus, you don't want to change price targets on the day of release of earnings.

$250 for AAPL would have been achievable were we not in an economy where the 'chickens' of a trillion dollar war deficit and upward distribution of income were rushing home to roost.

Hang on to your butts folks.

ncee · 01-22-2008, 11:43 AM

Here's hoping these guys are wrong … in a BIG way.

That's the only way the stock will bounce back much.

Hell I'd just like to see it around $200.00 again.

Skip

ncee · 01-22-2008, 11:53 AM

When today, is the conference on Apples financials?

Bageljoey · 01-22-2008, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncee

When today, is the conference on Apples financials?

After market close, I thought...

hawks5999 · 01-22-2008, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GQB

$250 for AAPL would have been achievable were we not in an economy where the 'chickens' of a trillion dollar war deficit and upward distribution of income were rushing home to roost.

$250 is still achievable. Don't believe the 'chickens' (Little) who are crying the sky is falling today. Anybody who got out of AAPL in the 140's or 150's is going to be crying when it does hit $250 in the next 12 months.

GQB · 01-22-2008, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hawks5999

$250 is still achievable. Don't believe the 'chickens' (Little) who are crying the sky is falling today. Anybody who got out of AAPL in the 140's or 150's is going to be crying when it does hit $250 in the next 12 months.

Oh, I'm hanging on, to AAPL, as well as my butt.

Last thing you do is sell on a dip, particularly if you're in for the long haul.

As to Chicken Little syndrome, time will tell who's right. AAPL happens to be the best orchestra on the Titanic.
We're not at the bottom yet by a long shot.

Wiggin · 01-22-2008, 12:34 PM

So this guy over-estimates, then makes a correction to HIS estimates, and now Apple is considered to be underperforming? I think the headlines should read, "Analyst overestimates iPod shipments", not "iPod shipments fall below estimates". (I know that's that the actual headlines, but that's how it'll be read.) They are right on the consensus estimates. So it appears that the problem is with the anaylst, not Apple.

I tried a quick Google search, but could find what Apple had estimated at the beginning of the quarter. Anybody know?

Bageljoey · 01-22-2008, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ncee

When today, is the conference on Apples financials?

Here is a more complete (less equivocal answer), from the following article by AI

link here

Quote:

Apple will report earnings from its fiscal first quarter ended December following today's closing bell.

SpamSandwich · 01-22-2008, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GQB

$250 for AAPL would have been achievable were we not in an economy where the 'chickens' of a trillion dollar war deficit and upward distribution of income were rushing home to roost.

Hang on to your butts folks.

I think $200 is a more realistic target, but not soon.

aaarrrgggh · 01-22-2008, 01:48 PM

As long as Apple guides to over $1.05 for Q2, given the current state of the economy, they should stay pretty stable. Each penny or so they add to that should give another $2-3 growth for the stock over the next 3 months.

By my guess, that has Apple back at $200 in the spring.

Unfortunately, since Apple guides conservatively, they might keep their number a bit lower to make sure they hit it.

The economy has plenty of problems right now, but the Apple stores still seem to keep generating a buzz. We'll have a better idea in a few hours...

governor · 01-22-2008, 02:14 PM

it is the girlie wall streeters that fret on this stupid stuff....variations just like this have happened over the last 5 years.....Apple is not the problem and won't be...there is no company better positioned and situated right now other than Apple. If you sold, you will be really sorry, because Apple will continually beat out the estimates....what makes you think otherwise is the enemy, and if you listen to them, you'll be sorry like them.

quinney · 01-22-2008, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GQB

$250 for AAPL would have been achievable were we not in an economy where the 'chickens' of a trillion dollar war deficit and upward distribution of income were rushing home to roost.

Hang on to your butts folks.

Good call. I can't wait to hear Bush's state of the union speech.

anantksundaram · 01-22-2008, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GQB

... hanging on, to ... my butt. ...... in for the long haul.
.... Chicken Little ....time will tell .... the best orchestra on the Titanic.... by a long shot.

Love that patois!

01-22-2008, 10:45 AM	#1
*AppleInsider* Kasper's Automated Slave Join Date: Nov 1997 Posts: 6,152	Piper Jaffray reduces December quarter iPod estimate Investment bank Piper Jaffray on Tuesday reduced its fiscal first quarter iPod sales estimate for Apple Inc. by approximately 2 million units in light of preliminary sales data that suggests December month sales fell slightly short of expectations. "We have analyzed all three months of NPD data (Oct., Nov. & Dec.) for the quarter and found that it now suggests iPod units of 24 million to 25 million," analyst Gene Munster wrote in research note to clients. He now estimates the Cupertino-based firm to announce sales of approximately 23.5 million iPods as part of its fiscal first quarter earnings report later Tuesday, which is below both Street consensus estimates of 24.7 million and his previous estimate of between 25 million and 26 million. "We see this as a neutral data point," Munster wrote. "Bottom line: we continue to expect Apple to report a strong December quarter driven by in-line iPod results and outperformance in the Mac segment. The analyst made no other changes to his model, maintaining a Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of the electronics company. [ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

01-22-2008, 02:14 PM	#14
governor Registered User Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 2	Keep your pants on. it is the girlie wall streeters that fret on this stupid stuff....variations just like this have happened over the last 5 years.....Apple is not the problem and won't be...there is no company better positioned and situated right now other than Apple. If you sold, you will be really sorry, because Apple will continually beat out the estimates....what makes you think otherwise is the enemy, and if you listen to them, you'll be sorry like them.

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01-22-2008, 11:43 AM	#5
ncee Registered User Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: New England Posts: 480	Here's hoping these guys are wrong … in a BIG way. That's the only way the stock will bounce back much. Hell I'd just like to see it around $200.00 again. Skip

01-22-2008, 11:53 AM	#6
ncee Registered User Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: New England Posts: 480	When today, is the conference on Apples financials?

01-22-2008, 12:34 PM	#10
Wiggin Registered User Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 849	So this guy over-estimates, then makes a correction to HIS estimates, and now Apple is considered to be underperforming? I think the headlines should read, "Analyst overestimates iPod shipments", not "iPod shipments fall below estimates". (I know that's that the actual headlines, but that's how it'll be read.) They are right on the consensus estimates. So it appears that the problem is with the anaylst, not Apple. I tried a quick Google search, but could find what Apple had estimated at the beginning of the quarter. Anybody know?

01-22-2008, 01:48 PM	#13
aaarrrgggh Registered User Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Paradise Posts: 400	As long as Apple guides to over $1.05 for Q2, given the current state of the economy, they should stay pretty stable. Each penny or so they add to that should give another $2-3 growth for the stock over the next 3 months. By my guess, that has Apple back at $200 in the spring. Unfortunately, since Apple guides conservatively, they might keep their number a bit lower to make sure they hit it. The economy has plenty of problems right now, but the Apple stores still seem to keep generating a buzz. We'll have a better idea in a few hours...

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