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#1 |
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Kasper's Automated Slave
Join Date: Nov 1997
Posts: 6,153
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Apple shares tumble in after-hours on disappointing outlook
Shares of Apple Inc. were further battered and bruised on Tuesday evening, shedding over 11 percent of their value after the company guided considerably below Wall Street's expectations for its fiscal second quarter of the year.
The Cupertino-based Mac maker said it expects to earn $0.94 per share on sales of approximately $6.8 billion for the three-month period ending March, compared to Street consensus estimates of about $1.09 per share on nearly $7 billion in revenues. The guidance sent shares tumbling to their lowest point in over four months -- down $17.35 or some 11.15 percent to $138.29 -- as investors feared that even a company with Apple's momentum may have trouble weathering a possible recession and sluggish global economy. Shares had already closed down $5.72 or 3.54 percent to $155.64 earlier in the day. During a conference call with analysts and members of the media, Apple chief executive Peter Oppenheimer defended his second-quarter estimates, calling it "very strong" guidance. "We are very confident we will achieve it," he said. Also weighing on investor sentiment was word that iPod sales remained relatively flat in the US on a yearly basis, suggesting that the digital media player market -- which accounts for more than 40 percent of the company's revenues -- is quickly approaching its saturation point. Apple executives immediately discounted the notion, however, noting that iPod revenues grew 17 percent year-over-year, a figure they maintain is "uncharacteristic of a saturated market." Company officials further countered concerns by explaining that Apple hopes to transition the iPod touch -- the primary driver behind the iPod's 17 percent revenue growth -- beyond an advanced music player and into the first "mainstream Wi-Fi mobile platform" capable of running "all kinds of mobile applications." Though executives failed to expand on this vision, the company is known to be working at least two initiatives that will help set it is handheld business apart from the pack even further. The first, due to arrive next month, is a software developers kit (SDK) that will enabled third parties to author a plethora of new applications for both the iPhone and iPod touch. The second, as AppleInsider reported in September, is a slightly larger and much enhanced iPod touch-like device mostly reminiscent of a modern day incarnation of a Newton MessagePad -- the Apple handheld device that gave birth to the PDA market back in the 90's. |
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#2 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: No GPS signal.
Posts: 1,169
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It seems to me that a saturated market would see a big DECREASE in sales, not flat (a.k.a. as strong as ever) sales. Flat sales still means that thousands more people own iPods each month than the month before. The number of iPod users is growing rapidly--about as fast as it ever has--it's just growing at a forever-accelerating rate.
Saturation would mean everyone who wants one already has one (and is not ready to replace it). It would mean sales slowdown, not maintaining the same high sales.
nagromme
Would you like a treatment? |
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#3 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Apple's now down into the 137s in after hours trading. How much Apple market cap got wiped out in the past month? $40 billion?
![]() C'mon Steve-o... 3G iPhone, STAT!!!. And some more aggressive notebook pricing. The 'Wi-Fi platform' talk for the iPod Touch is encouraging, however. And at least they're doing a 'Take 2' on AppleTV, instead of just throwing a fit and killing it, as has sometimes been Steve's way when things don't sell. .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#4 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 6,132
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Too bad we didn't get a new more affordable Newton Pad rather than the MacBook Elite at MacWorld- maybe a broader appealing device would have given more confidence.
Last edited by teckstud; 01-22-2008 at 09:33 PM.. |
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#5 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: in a strange land, waiting on my King to come and establish His Kingdom!
Posts: 259
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Quote:
So Apple says that they are going to do 29% better than last year yet they get slammed because it doesn't match what so called "analysts" were guessing. This is guessing about the future I might add. This just fundamentally proves that the stock market is legalized gambling and not investing. How this form of gambling became a hallmark of our nation's financial health is a travesty! edit: I propose new Federal legislation. Market Analysts must advertise themselves as "Handicappers" and Stock Brokers must advertise themselves as "Bookies"!
Please click here to help add native TrueCrypt encryption to Pathfinder by voting for this feature in CocoaTech's Feature Suggestion Voting System, No registration required. Spread the word!
Last edited by kresh; 01-22-2008 at 09:22 PM.. Reason: Added last thought on the subject. |
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#6 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,256
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#7 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,256
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Quote:
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#8 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
Isn't that true of pretty much any new Apple product these days (Euro iPhone aside)? Steve could announce his laundry list and it'd sell well... at launch, anyway. The real test isn't initial orders to the hardcore Apple faithful, but how well sales hold up long-term. But I am rooting for the MBAir, even though it isn't a true subnotebook. Its just so durn 'sexay'. ![]() .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#9 |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Connecticut
Posts: 8
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These Market players kill me. Merrill Lynch writes off 10 Billion. Apple makes Billions. Merrill goes up, Apple tanks.
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#10 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Earth
Posts: 5,678
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Relax guys, Apple is continuing to add more and revenue streams, all the while virtualization is greasing the rails towards doubling their market share. And all they need is another year or two of 30%ish growth to do that.
Call me in 18 mos.
In our desire to impose form on the world and our lives we have lost the capacity to see the form that is there;
and in that lies not liberation but alienation, the cutting off from things as they really are. -- Colin Gunton |
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#11 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 8
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Quote:
The market had of course factored in the analyst's estimates into the stock price, so it is only logical that we see a drop based on Apple being unlikely to meet those estimates, after all if we didn't then the market value would be "wrong" and the stock overvalued (of course it might still be overvalued or undervalued in what is an inefficient market). Bear in mind that if we look at the P/E ratio AAPL is a growth stock, so movement is not going to be based on the company merely doing better year on year. So, what you're saying is that because for the most part the value of a stock is based on what the market considers to be the most likely future for the company which determines the supply and demand for the shares, investing in the market is merely gambling? Now, I'm not going to disagree with that but you have to draw a line between what is gambling and what isn't, after all which investments don't carry risk? Even putting money in a bank could be considered gambling. But most importantly, your reasoning for it being gambling seems to be that because the analysts were "guessing" it's down to luck? That would of course deny the reality that there are a large number of consistently successful players in the market, showing that in this zero sum game it is possible to be more adept than the competition. |
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#12 |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 58
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Anyone see the Forbes article about Apple's quarter? I think they might have hit a new low.
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#13 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 47
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Time to buy
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#14 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,256
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Quote:
The Air is not at all a replacement for any other computer. Its more a lightweight companion to your workhorse. It won't sell as much as the MB or MBP. But it will sell. |
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#15 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
Agreed. It's not a subnotebook or ultraportable (since the footprint's no smaller than a regular MacBook), rather, its a sexy, lightweight, ultrathin MB. Period. Will that lead to great sales, at $1800? Initially, sure. Long-term, maybe not so much. I see it as being more of a 'solid' seller than a big hit. But we'll see. ![]() .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#16 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2
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Quote:
"The company blamed the weak economy for its lowered guidance". If you listened to the conference call, there was no such thing. The CFO's comments were along the lines that we leave the prediction of where the economy goes to others, we are just concentrating on running the business. A totally blatant lie by Forbes. |
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#17 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 87
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you have to admit that there were no really big innovations to start the year ... compared to last year ... however it appears there are strong financials and the company is well run.
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#18 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,221
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Quote:
Unfortunately, this kind of shoddy/sloppy reporting is par for the course. Notice our own AI's headline above: "disappointing outlook," it says, as though Apple may have indicated "disappointment." The accurate and fair headline would have been, "....outlook that the market - after-hours - interpreted as disappointing." |
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#19 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,256
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Quote:
From Anand: "The problem with my Picturebook and every other ultra-portable I've owned (including the sub-2lbs Sony X505) was that I'd get to a point where my productivity suffered too much and I'd switch to a larger, but more usable notebook. The keyboards were too small, the performance too low or the screen resolution insufficient; there would always be a reason and I'd end up abandoning my sexy little notebook for something more practical." |
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#20 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Its not an ultraportable, but it is trying to woo people away from ultraportables. How well that'll work, remains to be seen. It's just so very Steve. Let's not give people what they say they want, but rather something that I think is better. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But you gotta give him props for the massive juevos. .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#21 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 16
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Apple is not an island
I love Apple, their innovations, the eco-conscious efforts that they are now putting into place, and the progressive mindset that has made them one of the most inspiring corporations in the world. Regardless of what one might believe about the stock market and gambling, analyst predictions, or the day-to-day activity of this stock, this is a company that has fundamentally changed the way people live because of the tools they have created and the ideas they have put forth. A 12-year old kid can get a mac laptop that not only comes with an arsenal of tools for creating music, pictures, and essentially expressing whatever he or she wants to express (essential to teenage survival), but in some cases, actually helps organize thoughts and all the crap we are supposed to deal with each day.
When I look at the trends they have set and the direction of other tech companies, I have to say there is no comparison. We are moving towards an Apple world. They are on fire. Screw the numbers, the analysts, and everyone else who is trying to squeeze a buck out of this company for a short term gain. Pay attention to what they are doing. They have moved from a computer company to being a LIFESTYLE company. We're talking about generations of people growing up with buying an iPod as quickly as buying a CD player back in the day. If you want music, you're getting an iPod, period. And let's not forget movie rentals, which not only will have higher profit margins than Netflix, but will also contribute significantly to less waste (no paper, DVD, or postage required). I guess what I am saying is that in the same way Mac users really don't want to take the time to convince PC fanatics why Apple products and ideas are just better, a real investor in this company does not need to explain this to analysts or anyone else. The company is guiding conservatively and being punished for this. Ridiculous. Corporate greed is angry with the hippies at Apple - how dare Apple guide conservatively! These investors don't give a crap about Apple. They just want to make as much money as possible, as quickly as possible. I believe in this company and have continued holding and buying on dips since 2003, beating out every other pick I've ever followed. Read the balance sheets, crunch the numbers, whatever - at the end of the day, you are investing in the future and the people shorting and yelling at Apple when they can't produce what they want will not live long into the future because they wind up dying of the stress trying to make a killing, instead of being a real investor. Of course, we cannot just be blindly in love with Apple and kiss the butt of Mr. Jobs. We must also realize that Apple is not an island - what affects the broader market will always affect Apple. In a perfect world, all companies would be run as well as Apple, but they are not, and now the pathetic lots that lost a lot on other bets need to prostitute their shares of Apple. What we can do is quit bitching and complaining about the stock every week. Look at the mindset - look at the things they have released and the patents they apply for. Look at how their products affect society and generations, not just bottom lines. I do try to make predictions because at some point, you need to decide how long you want to stay in any company. The phone was certainly the easiest one - I'm sure lots of people figured they would go that route as soon as the iPod came out. My next prediction is that in the not-to-distant future, they will be designing ways to help companies who require insane amounts of server streaming (youtube and facebook). Perhaps it will be something with final cut pro and Mac servers, perhaps it will be new compression formats for video - whatever. The actual prediction is not as important as the fact that this is a company that inspires me and millions of other investors to brainstorm and try to predict what they will come up with next. No other company does that. We can't say for certain what the next ideas will be, which is part of the excitement of Apple, but I guarantee you, it will once again confound the minds of everyone stuck on their island, thinking about the present, instead of the future... |
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#22 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Near Antietam Creek
Posts: 367
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Forbes is the People of financial rags, trying to spike readership with their top 50 wealthiest whatever lists. It's losing hits/sales to both the sassier blogs, that do the nouveau-irreverence much better, and the more traditional serious pubs (Economist, WSJ, even Fortune).
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#23 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Silicon Valley
Posts: 7,036
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The problem is that Wall Street is still pessimistic by default in regard to Apple: this is not so for the other big players in the same industries. You think they'd glance at their iPhones for a second and think it over. Apple is the only stock I own that can post great numbers and still drop 11 percent.
Cat: the other white meat
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#24 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 190
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Apple can tumble itself right back up if it had introduced something like the darn xMac. This is so retarded, there is such a large market for such a device.
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#25 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 75
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#26 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2006
Location: La Quinta, CA (near Palm Springs)
Posts: 50
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Quote:
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#27 | ||
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,256
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Quote:
Quote:
In developing a product Apple's way of thinking is to solve the problem with a different solution than others have devised. Inspite of the fact that everytime Apple introduces a new product pundits claim it won't work because of this or that. But over the past few years it has worked more than not. |
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#28 | ||
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
You know, two out of the three physical dimensions. Don't get butthurt about it, it is still a very nice notebook. And it may lure a few folks away from true ultraportables. ![]() Quote:
Fact is, Steve sometimes doesn't give people what they want, sometimes Steve gives people what Steve thinks they should want. And yes, sometimes it works out great (iPod), and other times, not so well (G4 Cube, Apple TV). Noting this is neither positive or negative. It is simply what Apple does. On the whole, I'm happy they do it, but it is at times a risky strategy, because you can't always get people to want what you think they should want. .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#29 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Los Angeles, Kahleefornyah
Posts: 226
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Quote:
They're still being lumped in with Intel and MSFT, instead of Sony and Panasonic. If fucking Sony had shown 1/2 this kind of growth their stock would quadruple. Wall Street Whores. Need I say more? |
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#30 | ||
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,256
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Quote:
Quote:
Is their no realization that the Cube was seven years ago. No Mac has been in that position since. |
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#31 | ||
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
Not the big deal you seem worried it may be, considering that Apple thinks its solution is 'better' than an ultraportable. For some ppl, it may be. We'll see. Quote:
Sigh. Teno, there's no other way to say this except as follows: ![]() .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] Last edited by TBaggins; 01-23-2008 at 03:30 AM.. |
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#32 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Silicon Valley
Posts: 7,036
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How the hell did the Air enter the discussion? From what I've been told, the first manuf run is already booked, and the flash variant is more popular than expected. A real failure it is ...
![]()
Cat: the other white meat
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#33 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: From Parts Unknown
Posts: 2,282
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Quote:
Oh, Teno's just upset because I pointed out that the MBAir isn't a true ultraportable. Whatev. Nothing can be all things to all ppl, much as we might hope otherwise. ![]() I do hope it sells well, even beyond launch. I'd like to see my shares go back up, asap. .
The iPhone 3GS-
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad™ : Wrong again, lol Thanks for listening to your users, Apple. =] |
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#34 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: England
Posts: 557
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asia markets are rebounding, fingers crossed this may not be as bad as some think.
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#35 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Surf City
Posts: 338
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Quote:
My thoughts exactly.
Sent from my iPhone
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#36 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: oblivion
Posts: 256
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I remember...
Quote:
IMO i think we're back on 1997' the time is perfect to buy "once again" some serious appl stock, despite not having that much more money that i had then, i'm gonna go ahead and buy me some of this electronic sugar and sit on it for 10 more years and see what will be the outcome, steve may not be at the helm of Apple by that time, but i'm sure that his legacy will live on. ![]()
zenga
Last edited by Zenga; 01-23-2008 at 03:43 AM.. Reason: spelling |
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#37 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 471
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Quote:
That's right. When you lose, you deduct it straight off your income, and your winnings (aka capital gains) are taxed at a ridiculously low rate, far below that of income earned my performing useful work. And anytime the government passes on collecting taxes to encourage certain activities like donating to the poor (or any charities for that matter), buying a home or losing money on Wall Street, it shifts the burden of financing our government to everyone else. The 15% "flat tax" on all capital gains is blatantly unfair to those of us who realize either a tiny fraction of our income that way compared to the amount we earn by the sweat of our brow, and to those who have none at all. I would hope some good Democrat would start talking up the notion of adding some progressivity to the rates at which capital gains are taxed. It's only fair. |
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#38 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: NYC Area
Posts: 52
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In a sketchy market, anything with a luxury shine is going to go down first. If you miss even this consensus silliness in a sketchy market, the stock will get Hammered!
Good Stocks in Bad Markets make for fantastic buying opportunities, ala Proximityeffect. Apple still has the story. This drop is procyclical traders and people getting shaken out on volatility. Nobody ever made money by panicking.
-but Jimmy has fear? A thousand times no. I never doubted myself for a minute for I knew that my monkey strong bowels were girded with strength like the loins of a dragon ribboned with fat and the opulence of buffalo... dung.
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#39 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: europe
Posts: 258
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Quote:
vista = virus inside switch to apple
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#40 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: europe
Posts: 258
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i agree on the most part!
vista = virus inside switch to apple
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