Apple shares rise on Citi recommendation

[AppleInsider]

Shares of Apple Inc. received a slight boost Monday morning after investment bank Citigroup added the company to its "Top Picks Live" list and reiterated a Buy rating on the badly beaten stock.

"Top Picks Live is a dynamic list of CIR’s highest conviction ideas through calendar year-end which was introduced in January 2008," analyst Rich Gardner explained in a research note to clients. "Apple is the first addition to the list by the PC & Enterprise Hardware team."

In his note, Gardner vouched his belief that the affects of much publicized first-quarter iPhone and iPod production cuts (1, 2) are already reflected in the company's share price, which has fallen some 37 percent since the start of the new year.

"Several sell side analysts have recently cited cuts to March quarter build plans for both iPod and iPhone," he wrote. "We believe that these cuts did occur and that March quarter iPod and iPhone build plans are both below the current sell-side consensus."

For the quarter, the analyst said checks now suggest an iPod build plan of 9 million units will ultimately lead to sales of 10 million revenue units, slightly below sell-side consensus estimates of 10.9 million units. Similarly, iPhone build plan checks imply 1.0 to 1.2 million units, about half a million units shy of the 1.7 million sell-side consensus estimates.

"While March quarter iPod and iPhone build plans are below sell-side consensus numbers, we believe that this is well understood and expected by the buy-side," Gardner said in supporting his Buy recommendation. "At this point, we do not believe 10 million iPod revenue units and 1-1.5 million iPhone units during the March quarter would constitute a surprise to investors. In addition, we believe that iTunes movie rentals will provide an incentive for current iPod users to upgrade to a video-capable iPod as rental content on the site grows throughout the year."

The analyst blames most of the iPod's perceived under-performance in the US market as of late on poor uptake of the the entry level iPod shuffle, which hasn't seen a material revision in well over a year.

"While virtually 100 percent of the unit shortfall was in the low-end iPod Shuffle, allowing Apple to beat consensus iPod revenue despite the unit shortfall, the Street was rightfully concerned about the lack of unit growth," he wrote. "We believe the unit shortfall reflected the lack of a compelling update to the Shuffle product last Fall; the Shuffle simply was not the compelling 'stocking stuffer' this year that it was last year."

Going forward, Gardner said Apple will have to provide compelling reasons for US iPod users to upgrade in order to keep the domestic business from declining. However, the analyst had a slightly different view of the company's scaled back iPhone orders.

"While iPhone shipments are likely to be weak during the March quarter, we believe this partly reflects channel inventory draw down ahead of the launch of a 3G iPhone within 1-1.5 quarters," he explained. "The introduction of 3G along with price cuts and additional carrier relationships in Europe should give investors increased confidence in Apple’s stated target of 10 million iPhone unit shipments during calendar year 2008.

Gardner holds $212 price target on shares of Apple.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

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[mdotdubz]

Go AAPL Go! Up $3 today! I'm pickin up some shares!

[g3pro]

Consumer spending data is coming through the pipes this week. Will it be good news? Or will it be a disaster. It's pretty dumb to be buying AAPL at these prices, since it should be priced in between $85 and $95 in light of current and near-term economic conditions.

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by g3pro

Consumer spending data is coming through the pipes this week. Will it be good news? Or will it be a disaster. It's pretty dumb to be buying AAPL at these prices, since it should be priced in between $85 and $95 in light of current and near-term economic conditions.

That's what you think. $85 is WAY too low, I can't imagine it hitting that point unless a meteor hits Cupertino.

So how much have you made shorting AAPL?

[LouisTheXIV]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

That's what you think. $85 is WAY too low, I can't imagine it hitting that point unless a meteor hits Cupertino.

So how much have you made shorting AAPL?

Um if you still haven't heard we are in a recession right now...all retailers are suffering and Apple will suffer in the coming months too. There just aren't enough fanboys to keep sales afloat. Regular people who buy ipods every now and then or switchers are going to delay their purchases. Apple is going to keep dropping if the economic climate keeps deteriorating. Gadget companies suffer in recessions.

I agee the stock will drop below 100 this year. Then it will be a good time to buy.

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV

Um if you still haven't heard we are in a recession right now...all retailers are suffering and Apple will suffer in the coming months too. There just aren't enough fanboys to keep sales afloat. Regular people who buy ipods every now and then or switchers are going to delay their purchases. Apple is going to keep dropping if the economic climate keeps deteriorating. Gadget companies suffer in recessions.

I agee the stock will drop below 100 this year. Then it will be a good time to buy.

I'm aware of the state of the US (and world) economy. I just don't agree.

Time will tell who is right.

[Booga]

Originally Posted by g3pro

Consumer spending data is coming through the pipes this week. Will it be good news? Or will it be a disaster. It's pretty dumb to be buying AAPL at these prices, since it should be priced in between $85 and $95 in light of current and near-term economic conditions.

Apple appears to be in pretty good shape to weather a recession. Huge amounts of cash on hand, products diversified among various electronics/computer market segments, and a devoted customer base. If they play their cards right (and they seem to have been doing so lately), they could come out of the recession having picked up top talent and way ahead in R&D.

I'm just not sure why anyone would sell much, or what other companies they think would be a better bet in the long term.

[suhail]

I doubt Apple was up because of Citigroup, many tech companies were up today including Dell, HP, Sprint, ATT, IBM, Yahoo, Google, but not MSFT down 1.16%

[monstrosity]

Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV

Um if you still haven't heard we are in a recession right now...all retailers are suffering and Apple will suffer in the coming months too. There just aren't enough fanboys to keep sales afloat. Regular people who buy ipods every now and then or switchers are going to delay their purchases. Apple is going to keep dropping if the economic climate keeps deteriorating. Gadget companies suffer in recessions.

I agee the stock will drop below 100 this year. Then it will be a good time to buy.

if it drops

[Rolo]

Options expiry and hedge fund repemptions both happen Friday. Options Max Pain for AAPL is at 135. That's the price at which options managers would have to pay out the least amount of money. AAPL happens to be doing very well today, exceeded only by RIMM on this chart:



It wouldn't be a surprise if AAPL goes to 135 this week but what happens after that is anyone's guess.

[monstrosity]

Originally Posted by Rolo

Options expiry and hedge fund repemptions both happen Friday. Options Max Pain for AAPL is at 135. That's the price at which options managers would have to pay out the least amount of money. AAPL happens to be doing very well today, exceeded only by RIMM on this chart:



It wouldn't be a surprise if AAPL goes to 135 this week but what happens after that is anyone's guess.

Im amazed RIMM is still going strong, wont be long till that ship sinks.

[g3pro]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

That's what you think. $85 is WAY too low, I can't imagine it hitting that point unless a meteor hits Cupertino.

It was at $83 just a year ago. And that was after the iPhone was announced, and at the heights of economic activity. The iPhone, while selling well, is tapering off in the U.S., and is missing expectations in some international markets, and will not be sold in key markets for a long while, such as China. Apple's latest and greatest product is the Cube 2.0, an expensive peripheral gadget with limited mass-appeal and limited niche-appeal. Apple has been a strong consumer-spending company, but that was only recently the case, which happened to coincide with the largest credit bubble in history, which is in the process of exploding. Home prices are falling, home inventories and months of inventory are increasing, and equity-leveraged ATMs are going away.

$85 per share is a tad optimistic considering the circumstances.

[aaarrrgggh]

Originally Posted by g3pro

It was at $83 just a year ago. And that was after the iPhone was announced, and at the heights of economic activity. The iPhone, while selling well, is tapering off in the U.S., and is missing expectations in some international markets, and will not be sold in key markets for a long while, such as China. Apple's latest and greatest product is the Cube 2.0, an expensive peripheral gadget with limited mass-appeal and limited niche-appeal. Apple has been a strong consumer-spending company, but that was only recently the case, which happened to coincide with the largest credit bubble in history, which is in the process of exploding. Home prices are falling, home inventories and months of inventory are increasing, and equity-leveraged ATMs are going away.

$85 per share is a tad optimistic considering the circumstances.

So, you are basically saying that they should have a PE of 14 (after cash/short term investments are discounted from stock price) on the worst earnings projections is OPTIMISTIC?! Even CSCO which has much worse prospects is trading at 21x after cash and st investments!

In that 12 months, Apple has added about $6/share to its coffers. Growth might be flat this year if the economy gets as bad as the bears are trying to make it, but where I sit most of the pain is really in the financial sector and not the broader economy.

The Apple stores are still crowded (not packed, but crowded), and people are still buying. March won't be a stellar quarter compared to last year, and it would be nice to see either a dividend or an acquisition, but AAPL is priced pretty reasonably right now for the macro economic risk factors. When Europe starts feeling the pain then I can see AAPL dropping below 120 again, but much worse than that seems quite unfounded.

[quinney]

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh

So, you are basically saying that they should have a PE of 14 (after cash/short term investments are discounted from stock price) on the worst earnings projections is OPTIMISTIC?! Even CSCO which has much worse prospects is trading at 21x after cash and st investments!

In that 12 months, Apple has added about $6/share to its coffers. Growth might be flat this year if the economy gets as bad as the bears are trying to make it, but where I sit most of the pain is really in the financial sector and not the broader economy.

The Apple stores are still crowded (not packed, but crowded), and people are still buying. March won't be a stellar quarter compared to last year, and it would be nice to see either a dividend or an acquisition, but AAPL is priced pretty reasonably right now for the macro economic risk factors. When Europe starts feeling the pain then I can see AAPL dropping below 120 again, but much worse than that seems quite unfounded.

I agree that at a p/e of 14, AAPL would be extraordinarily cheap. In addition, some analysts
feel that the p/e understates the value of AAPL, due to the fact that they are now receiving
a material amount of deferred income. Free cash flow, another way of valuing a company,
is massive.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by g3pro

$85 per share is a tad optimistic considering the circumstances.

Originally Posted by g3pro

Consumer spending data is coming through the pipes this week. Will it be good news? Or will it be a disaster. It's pretty dumb to be buying AAPL at these prices, since it should be priced in between $85 and $95 in light of current and near-term economic conditions.

Guess you'd better get your story straight!

[one9deuce]

g3pro, your posts have become very tiresome. If you are so sure, then SHORT the stock and you'll be rich.

aaarrrgggh, you are 100% correct. It is inconceivable that AAPL would be trading at a P/E of around 14.

g3pro you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

[g3pro]

Originally Posted by one9deuce

g3pro, your posts have become very tiresome.

Yeah, I guess we need more unwarranted masturbation fantasy regarding AAPL:

"OMG, iPHone is awesome!!! $250/share is WAAAAY TOO CHEAP! IT'S A BARGAIN AT $175!!!!!!11"

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV

Um if you still haven't heard we are in a recession right now...all retailers are suffering and Apple will suffer in the coming months too.

There hasn't been a confirmed recession. People think there is/may be one soon, but it's not certain.

I think retail did grow in the last quarter, despite warnings otherwise. That growth was small but it wasn't negative, I think about 1%. While the economy is not necessarily strong, I'm not sure of a recession.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by g3pro

The iPhone, while selling well, is tapering off in the U.S.,

Do you have proof of this "tapering off", or is this supposition on your part?

Apple's latest and greatest product is the Cube 2.0, an expensive peripheral gadget with limited mass-appeal and limited niche-appeal.

Even if it's not a hit, that doesn't hurt the rest of Apple's product line.

Apple has been a strong consumer-spending company, but that was only recently the case, which happened to coincide with the largest credit bubble in history, which is in the process of exploding.

It already exploded last quarter, which was also Apple's best quarter ever.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV

Um if you still haven't heard we are in a recession right now...all retailers are suffering and Apple will suffer in the coming months too. There just aren't enough fanboys to keep sales afloat. Regular people who buy ipods every now and then or switchers are going to delay their purchases. Apple is going to keep dropping if the economic climate keeps deteriorating. Gadget companies suffer in recessions.

I agee the stock will drop below 100 this year. Then it will be a good time to buy.

I think AAPL has strategically positioned itself to not be a part of the price-sensitive PC market that relies on very tight margins. Apple is perceived as a premium brand and a lifestyle choice for consumers... both things are far less susceptible to the ups and downs of our economy. Yes, the stock is down right now, but unfairly, since Apple just reported their best ever quarter, and the slowdown in the economy should touch them with far less effect than a Dell or HP.

[penchanted]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I think AAPL has strategically positioned itself to not be a part of the price-sensitive PC market that relies on very tight margins. Apple is perceived as a premium brand and a lifestyle choice for consumers... both things are far less susceptible to the ups and downs of our economy. Yes, the stock is down right now, but unfairly, since Apple just reported their best ever quarter, and the slowdown in the economy should touch them with far less effect than a Dell or HP.

This has been my thought for quite some time and it amazes me that so many people on these forums want Apple to compete in thin-margin products.

If it is true that many of Apple's products are for people with "more money than brains" as is frequently posted, then an economic downturn should effect Apple substantially less than a company looking to sell $500 PCs to people forced to choose basic living expenses over even a somewhat-required-these-days computer.

[one9deuce]

"Yeah, I guess we need more unwarranted masturbation fantasy regarding AAPL"

Hardly, but I do think it will hit $200 (again) by the end of the year.

If you only knew how ridiculous you sound saying that $85 per share is "optimistic". So you're thinking $75 a share? That would give Apple a market cap of only $65 billion. Which is in range of what Microsoft wants to pay for Yahoo. Give me a break.

Not to mention Apple Inc has over 18 BILLION in cold hard cash!

[mdotdubz]

Originally Posted by g3pro

Consumer spending data is coming through the pipes this week. Will it be good news? Or will it be a disaster. It's pretty dumb to be buying AAPL at these prices, since it should be priced in between $85 and $95 in light of current and near-term economic conditions.

hahaha! i think u are a total moron... anything below 130 is a total gift from god!

[augur]

ROTFLMAO

The stocks tanking: Buy! Buy More! Buy Now!
The stock rises: Buy! Buy More! Buy Now!

How easy it is to separate a fool from his money.

The stock market is a ponzi scheme.

Think. D I F F E R E N T

Your treasures will be eaten by inflation, insider trading, and the laws of mathematics.
If 2+2=5 the 5=2+2, too.

Why work hard and save it just for the thief? Why be a thief?

If you gain without working, then someone is working without getting paid. Perhaps even yourself.

A working class hero is something to be.
They hurt you at home and they hit you at school,
They hate you if you're clever and they despise a fool,
Till you're so fucking crazy you can't follow their rules,
A working class hero is something to be,
A working class hero is something to be.
When they've tortured and scared you for twenty odd years,
Then they expect you to pick a career,
When you can't really function you're so full of fear,
A working class hero is something to be,
A working class hero is something to be.
Keep you doped with religion and sex and AppleTV,
And you think you're so clever and classless and free,
But you're still fucking peasents as far as I can see,
A working class hero is something to be,
A working class hero is something to be.
There's room at the top they are telling you still,
But first you must learn how to smile as you kill,
If you want to be like the folks on the hill,
A working class hero is something to be.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by augur

ROTFLMAO

The stocks tanking: Buy! Buy More! Buy Now!
The stock rises: Buy! Buy More! Buy Now!

How easy it is to separate a fool from his money.

The stock market is a ponzi scheme.

Think. D I F F E R E N T

Your treasures will be eaten by inflation, insider trading, and the laws of mathematics.
If 2+2=5 the 5=2+2, too.

Why work hard and save it just for the thief? Why be a thief?

If you gain without working, then someone is working without getting paid. Perhaps even yourself.

Honestly, I have no idea what you're smoking.

[tuneman07]

I do believe I called this awhile back when the MBA came out- that thing is going to sink Apple. I was half joking- its not really going to sink Apple but I think it sank the stock. The Air is so far off I believe people lost faith in what Apple is doing. Here we are heading toward an economic downturn and Jobs puts out a super expensive product based on nothing more than "cool" factor. When money gets tight people don't go for cool. Even with a booming economy the air would have trouble selling. Add to that the failure of Apple TV, the dismal looking online rentals etc... drops in Ipod sales, underachieving Iphone, and a notebook line that is quickly aging and Apple really has no stars in its lineup. Not trying to be an Apple hater here I am just being realistic. If you take your Apple blinders off and look at the situation in a realistic way you will understand why people don't want to buy the stock.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by tuneman07

I do believe I called this awhile back when the MBA came out- that thing is going to sink Apple. I was half joking- its not really going to sink Apple but I think it sank the stock. The Air is so far off I believe people lost faith in what Apple is doing. Here we are heading toward an economic downturn and Jobs puts out a super expensive product based on nothing more than "cool" factor. When money gets tight people don't go for cool. Even with a booming economy the air would have trouble selling. Add to that the failure of Apple TV, the dismal looking online rentals etc... drops in Ipod sales, underachieving Iphone, and a notebook line that is quickly aging and Apple really has no stars in its lineup. Not trying to be an Apple hater here I am just being realistic. If you take your Apple blinders off and look at the situation in a realistic way you will understand why people don't want to buy the stock.

Didn't people say the same thing about iPods & Apple? iPod was released a month after 9/11. It was considered a novelty that wouldn't sell in what looked like a dismal economy.

For one, it's not as if Apple knew there was trouble brewing when it started developing the machine. Development lead times long enough that it's impossible to predict macroeconomic conditions like that. Not only that, I think you should be reminded that Apple introduced the Air *before* the indicators of a possible downturn came out.

iPod sales did not drop. There's no good indication either way on rentals. So far, iPhone sales as a whole have been about on target. I don't really know what's aging about the notebook line, not only that, they sold their record number of their supposedly aging notebooks last quarter.

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by g3pro

$85 per share is a tad optimistic considering the circumstances.

So if you're so confident it will hit that point, are you shorting the stock or taking other action to make money on a drop?

I keep asking you this, why are you so afraid to answer it?

Originally Posted by augur

The stock market is a ponzi scheme.

Augur, your idiotic posts have already been torn apart enough already so it's not worth wasting time repeating them.

We get it, you're either a clueless idiot or an obsessed zealot convinced that the very concepts of investment and growth are evil, period.

Either way, I don't see how your rants are the tiniest bit relevant to Apple Inc. Could you please stop wasting our time?

Originally Posted by tuneman07

I do believe I called this awhile back when the MBA came out- that thing is going to sink Apple. I was half joking- its not really going to sink Apple but I think it sank the stock.

Apple had a big drop at the same time everyone else had a big drop. You really think it's the MBA and not market forces? Or maybe the MBA is SUCH a horrible idea that it made people lose confidence in the entire US economy. Makes about as much sense.

[g3pro]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

So if you're so confident it will hit that point, are you shorting the stock or taking other action to make money on a drop?

I keep asking you this, why are you so afraid to answer it?

I sold all AAPL I owned in a range around $185, making out like a bandit at the expense of ignorant investors in AAPL who thought they could ride a valuation bubble but instead got shafted when they bought in on the tail end of the bubble.

I feel sorry for the investors who were led into the Ponzi scheme that was AAPL for the past couple years.

I enjoyed the Ponzi scheme when it wasn't identified as such, now there is quite a bit of apprehension in investing in AAPL because the "secret is out". But then again, you still have morons who think it's a bargain at whatever price below $250, and they keep buying and buying, and then they get shafted by people who sell their inflated stock.

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by g3pro

I sold all AAPL I owned in a range around $185, making out like a bandit at the expense of ignorant investors in AAPL who thought they could ride a valuation bubble but instead got shafted when they bought in on the tail end of the bubble.

I feel sorry for the investors who were led into the Ponzi scheme that was AAPL for the past couple years.

I enjoyed the Ponzi scheme when it wasn't identified as such, now there is quite a bit of apprehension in investing in AAPL because the "secret is out". But then again, you still have morons who think it's a bargain at whatever price below $250, and they keep buying and buying, and then they get shafted by people who sell their inflated stock.

So I guess that's a "no"? You're not shorting or making other moves to profit on a fall in AAPL price.

If you're so confident, why not?

And would you buy AAPL again, if so at what price? $85? Lower?

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by g3pro

I sold all AAPL I owned in a range around $185, making out like a bandit at the expense of ignorant investors in AAPL who thought they could ride a valuation bubble but instead got shafted when they bought in on the tail end of the bubble.

I feel sorry for the investors who were led into the Ponzi scheme that was AAPL for the past couple years.

I enjoyed the Ponzi scheme when it wasn't identified as such, now there is quite a bit of apprehension in investing in AAPL because the "secret is out". But then again, you still have morons who think it's a bargain at whatever price below $250, and they keep buying and buying, and then they get shafted by people who sell their inflated stock.

The problem is that you're clearly being an extremist in the other direction when you give target prices that would effectively mean a P/E of 14.

[SpamSandwich]

I think he's mainly whining that he didn't sell at $200, instead of when he got out at $185. Sour grapes.

[augur]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Honestly, I have no idea what you're smoking.

LOL I don't get my "highs" on numbers anymore. People are addicted to stock prices like they are to box scores and heroin.

People's emotions go up and down with the stock market. They think they are winning when they are really losing. All profit has to come at somebody else's expense. They are cheering inflation on. Rather than getting richer, they are getting poorer. But that isn't the worst of it.

Remember Scrooge? He spent his life watching over his numbers, and forgot what it was like to be alive. There are many, many, many among the land of the walking dead, who are addicted to the counting of numbers.

I managed to escape.

Scrooge was not the exception, he was the norm. His exception was that he was miserly, too.

[tuneman07]

Thats why I get high from natures herbs man, not numbers you guys are being slaves to the man, plus the P/E is 28 BTW, not 14

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by augur

People's emotions go up and down with the stock market. They think they are winning when they are really losing. All profit has to come at somebody else's expense. They are cheering inflation on. Rather than getting richer, they are getting poorer. But that isn't the worst of it.

It's an interesting perspective. I applaud people simplifying their lives to focus on what's important to them. However, I don't think your understanding of how macroeconomics works jibes with reality. For one, it's not a zero-sum game that you portray it to be.

[augur]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

It's an interesting perspective. I applaud people simplifying their lives to focus on what's important to them. However, I don't think your understanding of how macroeconomics works jibes with reality. For one, it's not a zero-sum game that you portray it to be.

How is it not? At any one moment, there is a finite amount of goods and a finite amount of money. People are constantly producing and consuming and generating waste. It is always a zero-sum game. The number or people increase or fall, but again, it is always a zero-sum game at any particular moment.

Also, it isn't just about "simplifying." The current system is a mathematical farce. The accounting we use doesn't match reality at all, because the value of the goods is constantly increasing. In fact, it is the accounting that is creating the inflation, not "supply and demand," or the invisible hand of stupidism. People buy low and sell high. That IS inflation. It isn't a mystery. Inflation is a man-made phenomenon, caused by the government initially, and perpetuated by everyone.

[JeffDM]

Ah forget it, I'm not going to argue with a Marxist.

[g3pro]

Originally Posted by one9deuce

g3pro, your posts have become very tiresome. If you are so sure, then SHORT the stock and you'll be rich.

aaarrrgggh, you are 100% correct. It is inconceivable that AAPL would be trading at a P/E of around 14.

g3pro you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

Originally Posted by minderbinder

So if you're so confident it will hit that point, are you shorting the stock or taking other action to make money on a drop?

I keep asking you this, why are you so afraid to answer it?



Augur, your idiotic posts have already been torn apart enough already so it's not worth wasting time repeating them.

We get it, you're either a clueless idiot or an obsessed zealot convinced that the very concepts of investment and growth are evil, period.

Either way, I don't see how your rants are the tiniest bit relevant to Apple Inc. Could you please stop wasting our time?



Apple had a big drop at the same time everyone else had a big drop. You really think it's the MBA and not market forces? Or maybe the MBA is SUCH a horrible idea that it made people lose confidence in the entire US economy. Makes about as much sense.

Originally Posted by Booga

Apple appears to be in pretty good shape to weather a recession. Huge amounts of cash on hand, products diversified among various electronics/computer market segments, and a devoted customer base. If they play their cards right (and they seem to have been doing so lately), they could come out of the recession having picked up top talent and way ahead in R&D.

I'm just not sure why anyone would sell much, or what other companies they think would be a better bet in the long term.

Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh

So, you are basically saying that they should have a PE of 14 (after cash/short term investments are discounted from stock price) on the worst earnings projections is OPTIMISTIC?! Even CSCO which has much worse prospects is trading at 21x after cash and st investments!

In that 12 months, Apple has added about $6/share to its coffers. Growth might be flat this year if the economy gets as bad as the bears are trying to make it, but where I sit most of the pain is really in the financial sector and not the broader economy.

The Apple stores are still crowded (not packed, but crowded), and people are still buying. March won't be a stellar quarter compared to last year, and it would be nice to see either a dividend or an acquisition, but AAPL is priced pretty reasonably right now for the macro economic risk factors. When Europe starts feeling the pain then I can see AAPL dropping below 120 again, but much worse than that seems quite unfounded.

Originally Posted by mdotdubz

hahaha! i think u are a total moron... anything below 130 is a total gift from god!

Originally Posted by g3pro

Consumer spending data is coming through the pipes this week. Will it be good news? Or will it be a disaster. It's pretty dumb to be buying AAPL at these prices, since it should be priced in between $85 and $95 in light of current and near-term economic conditions.

dang, it feels good to be a gangsta.

[g3pro]

$97. Good times keep rolling.

[g3pro]

AAPL at $88. Wow, right inside my predicted range. Go me.