Apple exec: iPhone "not married" to single-carrier model

[AppleInsider]

Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Investment Symposium, Apple chief operating officer Tim Cook stated that the iPhone isn't beholden to the one-carrier strategy used so far, even if it makes the most sense from a business standpoint.

Cook made the observation when asked why Apple hadn't seen fit to offer either an unlocked version or multi-carrier offerings from the outset, noting that the particular conditions of the US and the initial launch made it impractical to try and satisfy every carrier and user. For Americans, Apple would have had to release at least two iPhones -- one for CDMA networks and one for GSM -- potentially making the learning process overly complex for the public.

This model could change over time, he says, but the ultimate plan is to provide the best possible experience early on. The existing tie-in with AT&T gave Apple a large amount of coverage while allowing both companies to be themselves, and a simple experience for first-time users.

"We're not married to any business model," Cook explained. "What we're married to is shipping the best phones in the world."

He added that for some areas to get the iPhone, it might be necessary to drop even staple features of most cellphone services. Some areas rarely if ever offer post-pay (subscription) cellphone service, for example, which would require a setup process devoted solely to prepaid options.

This isn't a sign of things Apple will or won't do in the market, Cook warned investors.

The officer also reiterated that there would always be a certain level of hacking no matter how widespread the phone might be, if simply because the demand exists. When users outside of official areas are "stepping over each other" to import iPhones, that indicates significant potential, he said.

The Apple senior staffer also noted that the iPhone's price cut to $399 during the holidays wasn't just a reaction to customers who thought the device was too expensive. It helped build momentum and a user base for the upcoming SDK, which he said would let programmers "only be limited by [their] imagination."

Beyond the iPhone, Cook acknowledged but downplayed concerns that the market for digital music players was oversaturated and cooling off. In a rare admission, the COO admitted that sales for the iPod shuffle had lagged by 17 percent worldwide during the holidays and was the key factor behind new price cuts that should help rekindle sales.

There was also likely some cannibalization of iPhone sales by the iPod touch, but the iPod sold well and needed to be out in the market to set the groundwork for the Wi-Fi mobile platform it represents, he said.

However, Cook reassured investors and analysts at the Goldman Sachs event by characterizing the iPhone as the company's greatest chance at success to date. Apple is still on track to sell 10 million iPhones in 2008, he said -- a statement that sent the company's share price up over 3 percent in after-hours trading.

The iPhone is already an "incredible accomplishment," he said, but has far more potential in the long term. "I need a word bigger than 'enormous' to describe it."

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[MacBookAir77]

Yay! I can have the iPhone soon! Anyways T-Mobile(in US) is wayyyy better than AT&T my bill is usually $50

[bigdaddyp]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The iPhone is already an "incredible accomplishment," he said, but has far more potential in the long term. "I need a word bigger than 'enormous' to describe it."

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

How about its bigger than Steve's Ego?

[TenoBell]

This model could change over time, he says, but the ultimate plan is to provide the best possible experience early on. The existing tie-in with AT&T gave Apple a large amount of coverage while allowing both companies to be themselves, and a simple experience for first-time users.

This is what I've said. Apple has only used the carrier lock in to get the iPhone started with a partner who is equally invested in its success. Gives the customer a consistent experience. After the iPhone has proven a success Apple is in a better position to deal with multiple carriers.

Yay! I can have the iPhone soon! Anyways T-Mobile(in US) is wayyyy better than AT&T my bill is usually $50

You get what you pay for. T-Mobile's coverage is worse than ATT. T-Mobile has only begun 3G, it will be some time for 3G to expand very far.

[minderbinder]

"Apple is still on track to sell its 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, he said "

Do you guys have a direct quote on this from him?

Other sources are reporting that he reiterated 10 million in calendar year 2008, not 10 million by years end.

Could you clarify, I'd love to give you guys the benefit of the doubt but you've gotten this wrong in the past.

[minderbinder]

Also, looks like AAPL popped again in after hours based on the reiteration of confidence in selling 10M phones in 2008. It's up about 8% or almost 10 bucks a share from the close yesterday.

[TenoBell]

It helped build momentum and a user base for the upcoming SDK, which he said would let programmers "only be limited by [their] imagination."

To those who fear Apple will limit iPhone apps.

[nevenmrgan]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

It helped build momentum and a user base for the upcoming SDK, which he said would let programmers "only be limited by [their] imagination."

Oh boy, is this quote ever going to get some mileage on it when the SDK is out.

Personally I think the apps will be pretty restricted, but even if the SDK is amazingly liberal in giving access to the device, someone will wish that they could install an InputManager for Safari and quote this when they can't

[MsNly]

Originally Posted by bigdaddyp

How about its bigger than Steve's Ego?

The..

STEGO

[bigdaddyp]

Originally Posted by MsNly

The..

STEGO

Thats good. Really good. All hail the STEGO.

[btitusjr]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

You get what you pay for. T-Mobile's coverage is worse than ATT. T-Mobile has only begun 3G, it will be some time for 3G to expand very far.

You are correct. You may save 20 bucks but if you live here in NE PA your not going to get any service with t-mobile where AT&T shines.

[TBell]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

This is what I've said. Apple has only used the carrier lock in to get the iPhone started with a partner who is equally invested in its success. Gives the customer a consistent experience. After the iPhone has proven a success Apple is in a better position to deal with multiple carriers.



You get what you pay for. T-Mobile's coverage is worse than ATT. T-Mobile has only begun 3G, it will be some time for 3G to expand very far.

I have a hacked iPhone on T-Mobile's network in Michigan. It sounds comparably better then an iPhone running on AT&T's network in the same area (I have several friends using AT&T). I have no idea why this is the case, and this fact probably is location dependent. Nonetheless, I wouldn't give AT&T a penny if my life depended on it, and I love rubbing it in that my hacked phone sound better. T-Mobile also has better family plan rates.

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

To those who fear Apple will limit iPhone apps.

Does "Stego" agree with Tim's comments??? If it doesn't have his blessings, I doubt if your premise will have any legs, IMHO.

[dagamer34]

A monkey could tell that the one-carrier business model doesn't do very much for Apple. They would make a lot more money selling the phone by itself and sorting out other details later.

[MsNly]

Originally Posted by dagamer34

They would make a lot more money selling the phone by itself and sorting out other details later.

I don't think so, Apple is all about simplicity and that doesn't make it easy for the layman.


or STEGO

Sorry couldn't help myself

[gobble gobble]

[scottiB]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

"Apple is still on track to sell its 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, he said "

Do you guys have a direct quote on this from him?

Other sources are reporting that he reiterated 10 million in calendar year 2008, not 10 million by years end.

Could you clarify, I'd love to give you guys the benefit of the doubt but you've gotten this wrong in the past.

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/goldmansachs08/

The general question about excess iPhone inventory begins around 23:10.

His quote (25:25):

We are right on track to where we want to be. We are...the...the 4 million units that we've sold over the first 200 days gives us confidence that we can achieve 10 million units in 2008. I know we've said that before; you've heard us say that before, but I want to make that perfectly clear--that we're--we believe that we are right on track for that.

[Constable Odo]

I'm so glad to hear that Apple is still on track to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008.

There were analysts doubting it was possible and saying how many iPhones would need to be sold each month and such drivel. I was just hoping they didn't know anything and merely talking to unsettle Apple investors.

I realize that it's still too early in the year to say they couldn't reach that goal. I just hope Apple can make some sort of arrangement with a decent China cellphone carrier which would easily make that 10 million mark. But even without China, the SDK and iPhone 2 should boost sales enough to reach the mark. Especially if the iPhone really does become Enterprise ready enough to steal sales from RIM's BlackBerry.

Me, I'm just happy to see the stock price rise overnight.

[samab]

Originally Posted by Constable Odo

There were analysts doubting it was possible and saying how many iPhones would need to be sold each month and such drivel. I was just hoping they didn't know anything and merely talking to unsettle Apple investors.

It's just semantics --- there is no difference in what the analysts and apple are saying.

The analysts are saying that given the current business models, it may be difficult to achieve 10 million iphones.

Apple is saying that they are maintaining the 10 million iphone target --- even if they have to kill their current business model.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

"Apple is still on track to sell its 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, he said "

Do you guys have a direct quote on this from him?

Other sources are reporting that he reiterated 10 million in calendar year 2008, not 10 million by years end.

Could you clarify, I'd love to give you guys the benefit of the doubt but you've gotten this wrong in the past.

Let's get the semantics out of the way for once.

When someone says "IN" calender year of..., it MEANS, by the end of the year.

The reason it means that, is because without giving a specific date during the year, such as June, it means whenever the sales reach that number during the year. And THAT means that the sales can reach the number at the end of January, or the end of December, which is the end of the year.

Leaving a date nebulous like that is something Apple does all the time, as we are always remarking upon. When Apple says that something will come out during a specific month, we always assume that it means around the end of the month, which is usually the case.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

To those who fear Apple will limit iPhone apps.

His statement does sound much better. Hopefully, it will mean what it sounds like.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by gobble gobble

No waffling allowed.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by samab

It's just semantics --- there is no difference in what the analysts and apple are saying...

Actually there is a huge difference in what some analysts said and what Apple has been saying. Analysts last week were saying Apple couldn't meet the 10m mark - they were figuring that based on a flat steady sell rate which no Apple product has. So their analysis was wrong and is basically just some more of the same crap.

[ahmlco]

Originally Posted by samab

...even if they have to kill their current business model.

Which one? Macs? iTunes? Apple TV and rentals? Accessories? Oh, you mean iPods.

Well, that model is going away anyway, as evidenced by the Touch, leaving Shuffles for cheap presents and some nano-type device for joggers.

But as Cook also said, it's better to canabalize your own sales than have someone else do it to you. A fact many, many companies learned far too late.

[Bregalad]

Originally Posted by ahmlco

Which one? Macs? iTunes? Apple TV and rentals? Accessories? Oh, you mean iPods.

Well, that model is going away anyway, as evidenced by the Touch, leaving Shuffles for cheap presents and some nano-type device for joggers.

But as Cook also said, it's better to canabalize your own sales than have someone else do it to you. A fact many, many companies learned far too late.

Tim Cook is right. Always better to compete against your own products than to let the competition get any of the sales.

I hope there will always be a reasonably priced, high capacity iPod. I see no point paying for a large touch screen or WiFi connection that I can't use while driving, walking or riding public transit.

The iPod Classic would be great because it would hold my whole library, but I worked for an Apple reseller for 3 years and saw way too many iPods with dead HDs, including someone who lost 10GB of irreplaceable vacation photos, to ever fully trust a HD based unit. I'd also prefer something smaller and lighter because it'll be exclusively for music. If it can't hold my whole library I might as well save $100's and just use a Shuffle.

There will probably be a perfect unit, a 32GB nano, in 2010. Guess Apple will be waiting that long for my money.

[Haggar]

http://www.macnn.com/articles/08/02/...ook.interview/

Will there be some cannibalization from the iPod Touch and iPhone? Tim Cook says maybe. "But I'd rather Apple cannibalize itself than others take our business"

Nice response. So how about that expandable Mac minitower?

[SpamSandwich]

Even though I take Tim Cook's comments lightly, the mere fact that he alluded to the possibility of either hastening other carrier deals or something else that will broaden acceptance of the iPhone (yes, possibly iPhone2) is exciting. Maybe, just maybe I'll load up on more AAPL at this time...we could be heading north again real soon if they make some bolder moves to counteract the current stock slump.

Also, here's the exact contents of the story...

By Ben Charny
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

SAN FRANCISCO -(Dow Jones)- Apple Inc. (AAPL) is open to exploring new ways of selling its iPhone, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said Wednesday.
Cook also made bullish comments about the impact of any economic headwinds, and said the company is confident it will meet the 2008 target for iPhone sales. He also hinted of a bigger iPhone development to come later this month.
Shares of Apple stock were trading up $4.35, or 3.5%, to $127.31 after-hours.
Apple thus far has sold its iPhone, a combination of phone and media player, by giving individual carriers the exclusive rights to sell it in their home country. The strategy has been criticized for limiting the iPhone's potential sales, and leaving potential business on the table. At last report, Apple's sold 4 million iPhones.
"Apple is not married to the single, exclusive-carrier model," Cook said from the stage of a Goldman Sachs investor conference in Las Vegas.
As to any impact by the slowing U.S. economy on Apple, Cook pointed to Apple's healthy revenue and Macintosh computer share growth of late. "I'm not saying that Apple is immune to economic factors," he said.
Cook also hinted that on March 6, Apple will release tools that programmers can use to create downloadable iPhone software, which Apple can then sell through its iTunes stores. The tools were due by the end of February.
Cook said the software developer kit will "make the iPhone even more compelling." Apple on Wednesday began circulating invitations to a March 6 event to discuss the iPhone software roadmap.
-By Ben Charny; Dow Jones Newswires; 415-765-8230; ben.charny@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-27-08 2000ET
Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

This is intriguing... "He also hinted of a bigger iPhone development to come later this month."

[TenoBell]

I have a hacked iPhone on T-Mobile's network in Michigan. It sounds comparably better then an iPhone running on AT&T's network in the same area (I have several friends using AT&T). I have no idea why this is the case, and this fact probably is location dependent.

There are various reasons this could be. Location is one of them.

Even though I take Tim Cook's comments lightly, the mere fact that he alluded to the possibility of either hastening other carrier deals or something else that will broaden acceptance of the iPhone (yes, possibly iPhone2) is exciting.

I doubt it will be hasty. But eventually the iPhone should be widely available.

Maybe, just maybe I'll load up on more AAPL at this time...we could be heading north again real soon if they make some bolder moves to counteract the current stock slump.

For those who want to hold Apple stock price in a vacuum. Google's stock price slid 38% from $747 to $464. The stock market pain is being shared all around.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

For those who want to hold Apple stock price in a vacuum. Google's stock price slid 38% from $747 to $464. The stock market pain is being shared all around.

It's all relative, I suppose. I'd rather have AAPL than GOOG at this point. I could never afford enough shares of GOOG to make a profit.

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by Tim Cook

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/goldmansachs08/

The general question about excess iPhone inventory begins around 23:10.

His quote (25:25):

We are right on track to where we want to be. We are...the...the 4 million units that we've sold over the first 200 days gives us confidence that we can achieve 10 million units in 2008. I know we've said that before; you've heard us say that before, but I want to make that perfectly clear--that we're--we believe that we are right on track for that.

So AI did botch this (again). Is this so hard to get right?

Could you PLEASE correct this in the story? I'm serious.

[Abster2core]

Re Dow Jones Newswire on Goldman Sachs Technology Investment Symposium featuring Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook.

"Cook also hinted that on March 6, Apple will release tools that programmers can use to create downloadable iPhone software, which Apple can then sell through its iTunes stores. The tools were due by the end of February."

NOT TRUE! What Apple did say (last October) was, "Apple: "We plan to have an iPhone SDK in developers' hands in February. Big difference.

[Abster2core]

Re http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/goldmansachs08/

How did we miss this, starting at 36:18 to 39:26 which ended with…

"And we just received word on Monday that Apple surpassed Dell as the number one supplier of portables to higher education for 2007/"

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by samab

Apple is saying that they are maintaining the 10 million iphone target --- even if they have to kill their current business model.

I'm not sure where you get this particular spin. They have lowered their price, which is what everyone expected from day one. They have entered new markets, which everyone also expected from day one. Sure, they have made changes since release, but it seems like FUD to describe that as "killing their current business model".

Originally Posted by melgross

When someone says "IN" calender year of..., it MEANS, by the end of the year.

Absolutely wrong. Everything apple has said has contradicted that, and it defies common sense.

If I say I will run 20 marathons in 2008, does that mean I've run 19 marathons through 2007 and will run one more in 2008?
Or does it mean I'll run 20 marathons in 2008?

The first "interpretation" is simply absurd.

We just went through this in another thread, this is at least the fifth time apple has made the statement "in 2008" - nobody has shown that they've ever said "by the end of 2008".

"Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year — or will it be more?

Jobs: We think 10 million is a realistic goal."

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/techinv...enson-qa_N.htm

"Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray

Good afternoon. First in terms of the iPhone, Steve Jobs talked about 10 million units. Is that for fiscal '08 or calendar '08? Where did that number come from? Maybe just a little bit of logic behind that number.

Tim Cook

Gene, calendar year '08 is what Steve referenced in his keynote. The point that he made was that the worldwide market for total cell phones is somewhere around 1 billion and our objective of getting 1% of it would yield 10 million units across the calendar year."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2443...all-transcript

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf07/
about 1:15 in.

"If you just get 1% market share, you are going to sell 10 million phones. And this is exactly what we are going to try and do in 2008, our first full year in the market - is grab 1% of the market and go from there. So we're going to enter a very competitive market - a lot of players - we think we're going to have the best product in the world - and we're going to go for it see if we can get 1% market share, 10 million units in 2008 and go from there."

http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.en...1/dsc_0245.jpg

And the newest one from yesterday:

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/goldmansachs08/

The general question about excess iPhone inventory begins around 23:10.

Tim Cook (25:25):
We are right on track to where we want to be. We are...the...the 4 million units that we've sold over the first 200 days gives us confidence that we can achieve 10 million units in 2008. I know we've said that before; you've heard us say that before, but I want to make that perfectly clear--that we're--we believe that we are right on track for that.

[drjjones]

You better buy as much AAPL as you can now as 200 a share is comin so fast it's gonna make your head spin. Buy on the open today and it will be nothin but up all day today. And the rest of the year. I bought all i can with all i can borrow. The rocket has lit it's next stage of the rocket and we are in for another one hell of a ride up . yeah APPLE. :s mokey:

[samab]

Originally Posted by Wally

Actually there is a huge difference in what some analysts said and what Apple has been saying. Analysts last week were saying Apple couldn't meet the 10m mark - they were figuring that based on a flat steady sell rate which no Apple product has. So their analysis was wrong and is basically just some more of the same crap.

If anything, a flat steady sell rate would create an over-estimation, not an under-estimation --- because they would base the annual sell rate on the hyping first month (until they lowered the price by $200) and the christmas quarter.

Apple, like everything other CE company, lives and dies with the christmas quarter for their ipods and iphones.

[samab]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

Sure, they have made changes since release, but it seems like FUD to describe that as "killing their current business model".

Apple said that they are not married to the single carrier model and they are maintaining their sales target.

The analysts are saying given the current single carrier model, it would be hard to achieve the sales target.

[samab]

Originally Posted by ahmlco

Which one? Macs? iTunes? Apple TV and rentals? Accessories? Oh, you mean iPods.

No, I mean iphone.

Apple just said that they are not married to the single carrier business model.

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by samab

Apple said that they are not married to the single carrier model and they are maintaining their sales target.

The analysts are saying given the current single carrier model, it would be hard to achieve the sales target.

How is that "killing their business model"? Apple has a five year exclusive contract with ATT, we've known since day one that they could go multicarrier after that. They've never said that their business model would be single carrier forever.

Cook didn't say they'd add more carriers this year, did he? (the article says "this could change over time") I don't see how they could considering they have an exclusive contract with ATT that extends beyond that.

[samab]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

How is that "killing their business model"? Apple has a five year exclusive contract with ATT, we've known since day one that they could go multicarrier after that. They've never said that their business model would be single carrier forever.

Cook didn't say they'd add more carriers this year, did he? (the article says "this could change over time") I don't see how they could considering they have an exclusive contract with ATT that extends beyond that.

He was responding to the international market.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by melgross
"When someone says "IN" calender year of..., it MEANS, by the end of the year."

Originally Posted by minderbinder

Absolutely wrong. Everything apple has said has contradicted that, and it defies common sense.

If I say I will run 20 marathons in 2008, does that mean I've run 19 marathons through 2007 and will run one more in 2008? Or does it mean I'll run 20 marathons in 2008?

The first "interpretation" is simply absurd.

Mindbinder, what is the problem?

Not that I agree with Melgross all the time, he is not wrong here. All he is saying is that Apple will reach their goal, that is to sell 10 million iphones in 2008, by the end of 2008 or sometime in 2008. Apple's projection number of 10 million should not be taken as absolute.

If Apple doesn't sell 10 million units between January 1st, 2008 and December 31st, 2008, they will miss their original forecast. However, if they do or sell more than 10 million by the end of 2008 the will have achieved or exceeded their projections.

Normally, published market projections by a public company are released with reservation. I'll bet that internally, the iPhone Product Manager (PM) has three forecast (pessimistic, realistic and optimistic) numbers in his/her marketing plan with a bonus that starts between the latter two. However, it wouldn't surprise me that Jobs would never allow the posting of the first number. I know I wouldn't, and I'll even bet that the PM is going for the last figure which he/she has pasted on the office wall for everybody to see.