3G iPhone seen paving way for video capture, overseas adoption

[AppleInsider]

The advent of a 3G iPhone from Apple Inc. later this year will enabled a slew of often-sought media features and present the greatest opportunity for international adoption, according to a pair of Wall Street analysts, who've nonetheless reduced their price targets on the company given recent growth and economic concerns.

In a research report released to clients on Monday, RBC Capital analyst Mike Abramsky said he believes the impact of 3G iPhone has been largely underestimated by the industry. He's expected the device to account for 25 to 30 percent of Apple's iPhone shipments this year after it launches in the second half, contributing to his view that the company will beat its goal of selling 10 million handsets in 2008 by approximately 1 million units.

Noting that some mobile functions can operate up to ten times as fast on a 3G network as they do on an EDGE network, Abramsky told clients that he believes 3G connectivity will "unleash" the true power of the handset and offer a mobile web surfing experience unparalleled elsewhere in the industry.

"Apple is likely to offer a faster processor in the devices, along with more onboard memory, which will also increase speed, downloading/uploading rates and browsing experience -- as well as enable higher video quality," he wrote. "The lower latency of 3G and faster processor/memory may likely allow deployment of new features, including video/voice capture, streaming HD video, real-time A-GPS location based services, etc."

The analyst, who cut his price target on Apple shares from $200 to $175 on economic/growth concerns, added that 3G wireless service should also allow users to simultaneously receive calls while browsing the web, as well as receive "over-the-air" media downloads and software updates.

Separately on Monday, Banc of American analyst Scott Craig also cut his price target on the Cupertino-based company (from $180 to $160), following checks with Asian suppliers that confirm near-term demand softness for both the iPod and iPhone.

"Recent checks in Asia for iPhone production suggest another sizable adjustment down to less than 1 million units for [the fiscal second quarter of 2008]," he wrote in a research report. "We believe that demand in the U.S. may have been impacted by the anticipation of a new 3G phone and that European demand for a non 3G iPhone remains lackluster."

Craig added that the introduction of a 3G handset in 2008 and further price reduction on the first generation device are critical to achieving the company’s 10 million unit expectation for 2008. In the meantime, however, the analyst reduced his iPhone sales estimated for the company's March quarter to 1.22 million from 1.62 and his fiscal 2008 estimate to 6.56 million from 7.96 million.

"We estimate roughly 8 million units for [calendar] 2008 compared to management's 10 million unit outlook," he wrote.

Despite the reduction in estimates, the Banc of American analyst advised clients to buy Apple shares at their current levels given that he believes the main driver for the company and its stock near-term is notebooks and desktops.

Nevertheless, shares of Apple were hit hard by both analysts' target cuts, falling $5.15 or over 4 percent to $119.87.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[melgross]

This sounds pretty much correct.

The talk of a faster processor also makes sense. It has been noted that even on WiFi, the iPhone is not as fast as a computer. That's because the processor limits the effective bandwidth the device can process.

[axc51]

3G streaming HD video?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by melgross

The talk of a faster processor also makes sense. It has been noted that even on WiFi, the iPhone is not as fast as a computer. That's because the processor limits the effective bandwidth the device can process.

The processor already trumps other smartphones I've seen and the 3G chips will surely be more power hungry than the current EDGE chip.

I predict the processing power not to change substantially. Apple will balance between using faster chips that are more energy efficient so long as it can maintain it's battery life. I feel the battery performance is the most pressing issue with the iPhone right now. IMO, the speed of the interface, even for viewing webpages, is more than adequate for a cell phone.

[Ronbo]

Originally Posted by axc51

3G streaming HD video?

Yeah, I thought that was pretty funny, too.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

The processor already trumps other smartphones I've seen and the 3G chips will surely be more power hungry than the current EDGE chip.

I predict the processing power not to change substantially. Apple will balance between using faster chips that are more energy efficient so long as it can maintain it's battery life. I feel the battery performance is the most pressing issue with the iPhone right now. IMO, the speed of the interface, even for viewing webpages, is more than adequate for a cell phone.

There will doubtless be numerous improvements internally. I'm willing to bet that a large portion will have been redesigned.

But, it's true that the processor limits the ability of the device to use full WiFi speeds. Chip speeds have risen, I'm sure, with the same power consumption. I'm saying that without actually looking. But, it will have been a year, and we can be sure that they have not stood still. Even a 15% increase in cpu power could be enough to send it over the top, resulting in better abilities.

[8CoreWhore]

3G3G3G3G3G3G

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by melgross

There will doubtless be numerous improvements internally. I'm willing to bet that a large portion will have been redesigned.

But, it's true that the processor limits the ability of the device to use full WiFi speeds. Chip speeds have risen, I'm sure, with the same power consumption. I'm saying that without actually looking. But, it will have been a year, and we can be sure that they have not stood still. Even a 15% increase in cpu power could be enough to send it over the top, resulting in better abilities.

I am looking for ARM specs so we can determine what the next iPhone will most likely have. It's proving to be not as simple as Intel's well known roadmap.

[jmadlena]

I really don't like stock analysts/brokers. In my opinion (albeit my ignorance) they just make everything worse off. When they guesstimate (that's right, I said it) the future outlook of companies it just makes people freak out and the stock drops. A self-fulfilling prophecy.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by solipsism

The processor already trumps other smartphones I've seen and the 3G chips will surely be more power hungry than the current EDGE chip.

If the iPhone had a user-replaceable battery, this wouldn't be an issue.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

If the iPhone had a user-replaceable battery, this wouldn't be an issue.

I beg to differ. Swapping out batteries is just a workaround, what you need is a bigger battery for the power. I wonder how much bigger it would be and less durable if there was a sliding cover. I know the battery cover on most of my electronics has broken off and allowed for waited space.

If the duration is an issue there is always a Mophie Juice Pack due out this month. I will be getting one of these.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I am looking for ARM specs so we can determine what the next iPhone will most likely have. It's proving to be not as simple as Intel's well known roadmap.

That's why I didn't bother. Good luck.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

If the iPhone had a user-replaceable battery, this wouldn't be an issue.

Or just an extra two millimeters of thickness, and a battery that's thicker, and more powerful.

[-cj-]

I agree that folks are underestimating the number of people waiting for the 3G version of the iPhone to release. I know I'm not the only one waiting for the next version before jumping into the iPhone pool. People may not just be waiting for the 3G feature, but are saving their iPhone dollars for the next version.

[freethinker]

the iphone is an amazing product but i will happily upgrade to 3g when it arrives, enchallah!!

[zenwaves]

Originally Posted by -cj-

I agree that folks are underestimating the number of people waiting for the 3G version of the iPhone to release. I know I'm not the only one waiting for the next version before jumping into the iPhone pool. People may not just be waiting for the 3G feature, but are saving their iPhone dollars for the next version.

ditto, I've had $600 set aside for a 3G iPhone since December ... was foolishly hoping that it would be out by Macworld, but now it's getting closer!

[MatthewGavin]

Originally Posted by zenwaves

ditto, I've had $600 set aside for a 3G iPhone since December ... was foolishly hoping that it would be out by Macworld, but now it's getting closer!

Same here...I am waiting for the 3G iPhone. Do you think you will need all of that 600 bucks to buy the 3G iPhone? I wonder how much it will cost.

[Booga]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

If the iPhone had a user-replaceable battery, this wouldn't be an issue.

Apple knows what they're doing when it comes to wildly successful consumer electronics.

I don't see many people carrying around an extra cellphone battery with them at all times. If it doesn't fit in the package it'll get left at home/on the desk/etc. The only solution is either less power consumption or more built-in supply.

My BlackBerry 3350 gets days of standby time, but it's got a tiny screen and is very thick. My iPod Touch is the perfect mix of battery, capability, and slimness. I suspect most iPhone users find their slightly thicker cases the right tradeoff, too. Apple's really good at finding the right tradeoffs lately.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by Booga

My iPod Touch is the perfect mix of battery, capability, and slimness. I suspect most iPhone users find their slightly thicker cases the right tradeoff, too. Apple's really good at finding the right tradeoffs lately.

I agree. I use my iPhone for internet and audio music at the same time for hours straight... which means until it dies. I need a model that is a full 1" thick.

[TheIguana]

I do find it slightly ironic that this is a Royal Bank of Canada banker talking when the ruddy iPhone is not even available in the aforementioned country.

[melgross]

I've never used an extra battery on my cellphones, and that includes my old Samsung 1300 and 1330 Palmphones, or my current Treo 700p.

I don't even know anyone who has.

I'm sure someone here will say that they do, but It's not that big of an issue.

[GordonComstock]

Originally Posted by zenwaves

ditto, I've had $600 set aside for a 3G iPhone since December ... was foolishly hoping that it would be out by Macworld, but now it's getting closer!

I HAD to have a smart (ish) phone last year and was forced to purchase in Feb. '07 before the iPhone was introduced. I did a one year plan w/AT&T because I expected to be moving to a 2nd generation iPhone in mid '08. Still hoping that's the case because I'm learning to hate this Blackjack.

gc

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by GordonComstock

I did a one year plan w/AT&T because I expected to be moving to a 2nd generation iPhone in mid '08

I think that June—August is very likely. But I also expect Jobs to present the iPhone in a special keynote the day they submit it to the FCC. Either way, we'll have a many weeks' notice of its arrival. Not the "Apple way" of doing things but they can't get around that... I don't think.


What are others viewpoints and opinions on the next iPhone arrival? I'd like to get a fresh perspective on it.

[ThunkDifferent.com]

iThink we'll be looking at the second week of June, i Sure woud like a mac pro nahalem upgrade too, but Apple does't really release such specialized hardware at such critical point. Way to go on being Money mags #1 brand image in the United Stes of America. Not bad for a young company as Apple, Inc.

Thunk Different Blogger

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by ThunkDifferent.com

iThink we'll be looking at the second week of June, i Sure woud like a mac pro nahalem upgrade too, but Apple does't really release such specialized hardware at such critical point. Way to go on being Money mags #1 brand image in the United Stes of America. Not bad for a young company as Apple, Inc.

Thunk Different Blogger

I don't see email being useful on a screen that's barely wide enough to show the time. It's certainly not going to let you do any form of text entry.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I think that June—August is very likely. But I also expect Jobs to present the iPhone in a special keynote the day they submit it to the FCC. Either way, we'll have a many weeks' notice of its arrival. Not the "Apple way" of doing things but they can't get around that... I don't think.


What are others viewpoints and opinions on the next iPhone arrival? I'd like to get a fresh perspective on it.

What I haven't ever seen anyone mention in the context of the iPhone's FCC certification is that any device that has radio emissions must undergo these tests, and that includes computers.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by ThunkDifferent.com

iThink we'll be looking at the second week of June, i Sure woud like a mac pro nahalem upgrade too, but Apple does't really release such specialized hardware at such critical point

Of Apple's entire product line the Mac Pro will be the easiest to do with their history with Intel releasing chips to Apple first and the lowered unit sales make it easier to handle. However, they are being debuted in June, but we should see them until months later. Mobile Nehelam won't be ready until 2009. The Israeli manufacturing plant Intel is building for this is still under construction.

Way to go on being Money mags #1 brand image in the United Stes of America. Not bad for a young company as Apple, Inc.

Personally, I think the decision may have been more a marketing choice than anything else. Perhaps I'm just being cynical.

[PatsFan83]

streaming HD video? What the heck is he talking about? First, where are you going to stream from? Macs can't even rent HD quality movies, only apple tv can. Second, WHY would you want to watch HD video that will have to get scaled down 4x to fit the screen, unless they invent the worlds smallest 1080p cell phone. Oh yeah you'd only be streaming GBs of data, hope the new phones have about 60 gigs in storage. how is this guy an analyst?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by melgross

What I haven't ever seen anyone mention in the context of the iPhone's FCC certification is that any device that has radio emissions must undergo these tests, and that includes computers.

Does that include the entire device or just the radio portion, because I don't recall ever getting a heads up on a new computer being released from the FCC before Apple announced it? If that is the case then perhaps we won't have an y notice of the 3G iPhone before its unleashing.

[palegolas]

About the processor speed.. Of course there will eventually be a next generation processor. But wasn't the current processor underclocked by several hundreds of mhz? I guess if they figure out a great way to run the processor at faster speeds without stealing battery they could just update the current processor with a firmware update as they have in the past.

[nagromme]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I am looking for ARM specs so we can determine what the next iPhone will most likely have. It's proving to be not as simple as Intel's well known roadmap.

I'm looking for Intel Atom instead

[HyteProsector]

Do you guys think that Apple will do away with wifi on the iPhone when a 3G model comes out? I doubt it seeing as how google maps uses it to triangulate your position. But this article says 3G will give you real time GPS. I'm not quite sure how thats going to work, but do you think wifi is worth the space it takes up if you have a 3G phone?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Does that include the entire device or just the radio portion, because I don't recall ever getting a heads up on a new computer being released from the FCC before Apple announced it? If that is the case then perhaps we won't have an y notice of the 3G iPhone before its unleashing.

Normally, the entire device must be certified. Apple once had some of its computers held up because of that.

In fact, because of the FCC's stringent "Subpart 15" certification process, you aren't even allowed to replace your computer cover with something else, as gamers often do.

The only thing I can think of that would matter, is that it's possible that the testing is now done by the UL. If so, we won't hear of it.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by palegolas

About the processor speed.. Of course there will eventually be a next generation processor. But wasn't the current processor underclocked by several hundreds of mhz? I guess if they figure out a great way to run the processor at faster speeds without stealing battery they could just update the current processor with a firmware update as they have in the past.

If they did underclock it, it would be because of battery drain. They would then need a newer cpu for the higher rate. I don't mean an entirely new cpu, but one that is several steppings later.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by HyteProsector

Do you guys think that Apple will do away with wifi on the iPhone when a 3G model comes out?

Definitely not.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by HyteProsector

Do you guys think that Apple will do away with wifi on the iPhone when a 3G model comes out? I doubt it seeing as how google maps uses it to triangulate your position. But this article says 3G will give you real time GPS. I'm not quite sure how thats going to work, but do you think wifi is worth the space it takes up if you have a 3G phone?

It'll still have WiFi. WiFi is becoming more ubiquitous; it's faster than 3G; it's cheaper than 3G as not everyone will have unlimited data or reside in 3G cell area; and the chip is smaller, cheaper and far less power hungry.

(left) iPhone EDGE in purple and WiFi in green; (right) Blackjack UMTS in red

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by melgross

The only thing I can think of that would matter, is that it's possible that the testing is now done by the UL. If so, we won't hear of it.

Wikipedia states that even with a UL approval it still needs an FCC approval. Perhaps they can fast track with a "good faith approval" if they use the UL's notes, but I doubt that.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Wikipedia states that even with a UL approval it still needs an FCC approval. Perhaps they can fast track with a "good faith approval" if they use the UL's notes, but I doubt that.

I didn't think it was correct, but possible. Apparently, you found it wasn't. Oh well, back to the drawing boards.

[Hattig]

Originally Posted by nagromme

I'm looking for Intel Atom instead

Well you'll be looking for 3 years then.

[macFanDave]

I've had an iPhone since September and have been mostly happy with the EDGE network. This 3G network of which you speak will have to be a helluva lot better than what I have now, or disappointment can turn into anger.

Are you sure it's going to be that great?

And, by the way, if you are one of those saying that the only thing holding you back from buying an iPhone was that it wasn't 3G, and the next version IS 3G, you damn well had better buy one or you are nothing but a liar!

I hope you are right. I hope the web on the iPhone becomes awesomely fast. But, I have also heard lots of hype and seen lots of under-delivering and I have this gnawing feeling that 3G will only be marginally better than EDGE. Don't bother throwing specs at me (USB 2.0 is better than FireWire 400? Yeah, right.), I'll reserve judgment until I can see real-world performance!