Apple snags 14 percent of US-based PC retail sales in February

[AppleInsider]

Growth in Apple's personal computer business continued to outpace the industry average last month, with Macs accounting for a 14 percent unit share and 25 percent dollar share of all US-based PC retail sales, according to market research firm NPD.

The results -- first revealed in an investor note from Pacific Crest Securities analyst Andy Hargreaves on Monday -- represent 60 percent unit growth and 67 percent revenue growth over the same period one year ago. At the same time, overall US PC retail shipments grew just 9 percent on a 5 percent increase in revenues.

Apple saw particular strength in notebook systems, which rose 64 percent in units and 67 percent in revenues, suggesting strong sell-through of the company's new MacBook Air, noted Hargreaves.

"Macbook Air sales appear to be additive to total sales, rather than replacing Macbook Pro sales," he said. "We believe a new set of corporate customers make up a meaningful portion of MacBook Air buyers."

Overall, the US retail segment combined for a 20 percent increase in notebook shipments on an 11 percent rise in revenues.

The Mac maker also saw robust demand for its desktop systems, which grew 55 percent on a 68 percent increase in revenues, compared to the overall retail segment which saw unit sales decline 5 percent on a 2 percent drop in revenues.

"Mac sales do not appear to be negatively impacted by macro environment," Hargreaves concluded. "[The] iMac continues to sell extremely well, with strong sales of larger screen sizes."

February 2008 US-based PC retail market share growth figures | Source: NPD, Pacific Crest Securities.

Meanwhile, sales of Apple's iPod digital media players remain somewhat limp, and just off their pace from one year ago.

In a separate research note from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, also issued Monday, it was noted that NPD retail sales data for the month of February suggest total iPod unit sales of 9.5 million to 10.7 million for the three month period ending March.

"Street consensus for March quarter iPods is 10.8 million, representing a 2 percent year-over-year increase; the midpoint of the 9.7m-10.5m range suggests a 4 percent year-over-year decline," Munster wrote. "We see this data point as a slight positive, given this range is a slight increase from what NPD data indicated after 1 month of data."

Both Hargreaves and Munster remain bullish on shares of the Cupertino-based Apple, with Hargreaves noting that the company's current valuation is particularly attractive with the stock trading at just 18 times fiscal year 2008 free cash flow.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[digitalclips]

WOW!!!! Fabulous news.

Please can my shares now go back up

[solsun]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

WOW!!!! Fabulous news.

Please can my shares now go back up

There is no doubt that Apple is going to have a great quarter in terms of revenue and Mac sales.. Unfortunately, I fear that no matter how much revenue and profit they make, if iPod numbers see a year over year decline, investors are going to continue to tank the stock..

I hope i'm wrong.

[melgross]

This looks very good. But, what does it really mean?

Forgetting the 14% for the moment, I would say the only numbers that matter are the Apple year to year numbers, which look VERY good.

That's better growth than I expected. I was hoping for something in the 40%+ area, considering the economic slowdown.

The 14% is murky though, because we need more information to know what it means. Are they including Dell's new foray into retail? Does this include online sales (doubtful)?

Does it include business sales other than the small purchases made by small business?

Does it include sales to schools, which are often not sold retail, but which make up a lot of sales, esp for Apple?

14% of exactly what?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solsun

There is no doubt that Apple is going to have a great quarter in terms of revenue and Mac sales.. Unfortunately, I fear that no matter how much revenue and profit they make, if iPod numbers see a year over year decline, investors are going to continue to tank the stock..

I hope i'm wrong.

We have to see how this relates to the overall digital player market. If all sales are flat, or down, then it is almost entirely due to the economic turndown. If so, then it isn't too bad. but if it's Apple's sales that are flat, or down, and other's sales are not, then it's a big problem.

[minderbinder]

I thought people were predicting AAPL would go below $80...bad call, or do people still expect that some time this year?

[solsun]

Originally Posted by melgross

This looks very good. But, what does it really mean?

Forgetting the 14% for the moment, I would say the only numbers that matter are the Apple year to year numbers, which look VERY good.

I agree, Mac YOY numbers look great... As an investor I would much rather see better YOY numbers for the Mac than the iPod anyday.. For some reason, investors don't see it that way..

Look at last quarter for example.. Record quarter, record revenue, record profit, record Mac sales, even record iPod sales.. Still the stock slumped because iPod growth showed signs of slowing and didn't meet expectations..

At some point, investors are going to have to realize that the Mac and iPhone are Apple's new growth drivers and will far overcompensate for any decline in iPod growth..

[solsun]

Originally Posted by melgross

We have to see how this relates to the overall digital player market. If all sales are flat, or down, then it is almost entirely due to the economic turndown. If so, then it isn't too bad. but if it's Apple's sales that are flat, or down, and other's sales are not, then it's a big problem.

Agreed.

[McHuman]

Originally Posted by melgross

14% of exactly what?

It answers your question :

"14 percent unit share ... of all US-based PC retail sales."

14% of all retail (non online) sales last month in the US of PCs (whatever NPD means by PC you have to ask them).

[melgross]

Originally Posted by McHuman

It answers your question :

"14 percent unit share ... of all US-based PC retail sales."

14% of all retail (non online) sales last month in the US of PCs (whatever NPD means by PC you have to ask them).

No, that doesn't answer the question. Retail means a lot of things. At one time, they didn't include sales from Apple's stores. Then they did. It's not as straightforwards as you may think.

And, as you say, what do they mean by PC? Are they including PC based servers? Sometimes they do.

[solsun]

Originally Posted by minderbinder

I thought people were predicting AAPL would go below $80...bad call, or do people still expect that some time this year?

Don't know, I've never heard this, and I stay pretty up on most analyst reports and predictions..

Where did you hear this?

[David Stevenson]

Of course if iPhone sales for the March quarter were, say, 2 million, then iPod + iPhone sales would be (via NPD estimates) 11.5m to 12.7m, much more impressive unit shipments (there were no iPhone sales in the March quarter last year). But do analysts take this into consideration?

[zunx]

The day that Mac OS X reaches 25% market share, Windows will be history in three years. The only thing keeping the horrible Windows alive is inertia and ignorance.

[iPeon]

Originally Posted by solsun

Unfortunately, I fear that no matter how much revenue and profit they make, if iPod numbers see a year over year decline, investors are going to continue to tank the stock..

Just about every stock has tanked. It's the market itself that is causing Apple's stock to drop.

http://finance.google.com/finance?ch...0&q=MUTF:FAGOX

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by solsun

Don't no, I've never heard this, and I stay pretty up on most analyst reports and predictions..

Where did you hear this?

Sorry I wasn't clear...I was referring to predictions made by people posting in these forums.

[Bergermeister]

Congratulations to Apple on their remarkable success! Purchasing an MBA makes me a contributer to that success.

Shame on anybody who makes money off of this success until Apple can give all purchasers (including me) a computer that functions as advertised. Two bad Apples (and many more on Apple's Discussion Boards) in under a month and I am now on my second week without a computer; only got to use it for just under three weeks.

At what expense has Apple gained this share? How many people have suffered hardware issues due to poor manufacturing and then been forced to wait for repairs or replacements? I think we need to do some research.

iPod nanos still have titled screens. If they are popular, then the masses don't seem to care anymore, and that is better for Apple; they can cut corners and claim the complainers are out of line and that the devices are within specs.

Personally, I have had an unusually high number of computer problems over the years, all from Apple. Perhaps it is just my luck, perhaps not; the shear number makes me doubt that it is bad karma.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Bergermeister

Congratulations to Apple on their remarkable success! Purchasing an MBA makes me a contributer to that success.

Shame on anybody who makes money off of this success until Apple can give all purchasers (including me) a computer that functions as advertised. Two bad Apples (and many more on Apple's Discussion Boards) in under a month and I am now on my second week without a computer; only got to use it for just under three weeks.

At what expense has Apple gained this share? How many people have suffered hardware issues due to poor manufacturing and then been forced to wait for repairs or replacements? I think we need to do some research.

iPod nanos still have titled screens. If they are popular, then the masses don't seem to care anymore, and that is better for Apple; they can cut corners and claim the complainers are out of line and that the devices are within specs.

Personally, I have had an unusually high number of computer problems over the years, all from Apple. Perhaps it is just my luck, perhaps not; the shear number makes me doubt that it is bad karma.

Must be their desire to become a 100% consumer electronics company manifesting itself as shoddy quality control on the computer side...

[Chris_CA]

Didn't Mac go bankrupt after Microsoft bailed them out a few years ago?

[JimDreamworx]

That was the Windows Company that bailed them out!

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by solsun

Don't no, I've never heard this, and I stay pretty up on most analyst reports and predictions..

Where did you hear this?

It's just some crank that regularly posts here that says that.

[solsun]

Originally Posted by iPeon

Just about every stock has tanked. It's the market itself that is causing Apple's stock to drop.

http://finance.google.com/finance?ch...0&q=MUTF:FAGOX

Yes, I know that in general, the market has taken a downturn. But APPL has taken a worse hit than most, nearly 40%, and the bulk of that was within the first few days after quarterly results were announced.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by melgross

We have to see how this relates to the overall digital player market. If all sales are flat, or down, then it is almost entirely due to the economic turndown. If so, then it isn't too bad. but if it's Apple's sales that are flat, or down, and other's sales are not, then it's a big problem.

Units will be down, revenue will be up, and the market will not care. First it won't care because the iPhone steals sales from iPods, and secondly because the good news about Mac sales will trounce it, and finally because sales of high priced Touch models bringing ASPs up will please everyone. The news that units are not growing quickly is already priced into the stock, as it came out last quarter.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by solsun

I agree, Mac YOY numbers look great... As an investor I would much rather see better YOY numbers for the Mac than the iPod anyday.. For some reason, investors don't see it that way..

Look at last quarter for example.. Record quarter, record revenue, record profit, record Mac sales, even record iPod sales.. Still the stock slumped because iPod growth showed signs of slowing and didn't meet expectations..

At some point, investors are going to have to realize that the Mac and iPhone are Apple's new growth drivers and will far overcompensate for any decline in iPod growth..

That's exactly why no one will be disappointed at the iPod news this quarter.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by melgross

No, that doesn't answer the question. Retail means a lot of things. At one time, they didn't include sales from Apple's stores. Then they did. It's not as straightforwards as you may think.

And, as you say, what do they mean by PC? Are they including PC based servers? Sometimes they do.

And to answer your question...

You'll never know what all the numbers mean. All you can know is that they are comparable year over year (one would hope), and that they clearly show absurd growth.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by zunx

The day that Mac OS X reaches 25% market share, Windows will be history in three years. The only thing keeping the horrible Windows alive is inertia and ignorance.

I'll have to alert all my clients who can't afford an $800 PC, much less a $1200 one...

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by Chris_CA

Didn't Mac go bankrupt after Microsoft bailed them out a few years ago?

Who is Mac?

[solsun]

Originally Posted by cameronj

That's exactly why no one will be disappointed at the iPod news this quarter.

Well, I hope you're right.. But I'm not so sure... Macs had an explosive quarter last quarter, and even if iPods didn't meet everyones expectations it still showed slight YOY growth.. This may be the first quarter since 2001 where YOY iPod growth may be flat or even show a slight decline..

Mac growth has been on the rise for several years now, most analysts haven't said or cared much about it.. It seems that in general, analysts seem to view Apple as a one trick pony, or as the "iPod maker."

[MiMiC]

Well, we'll have two iPods, the shuffle and the Touch once the SDK is released and software starts to flow.

Hmm, wonder if i can get a Back to my Mac function using the Touch or Phone, then my music will be changeable anytime! No need for HUGE storage.

The shuffle due to its design will be here for some time. I use my clip on for music and my iPhone for internet. Call comes in, i just switch the cable over LOL

Mac sales will be big even with the SDK being released as all those wanting to develop will have to buy Intel powered Macs and iPhones. So a surge should come from developers buying.

Then with all the cool software, including games, how can you live without it? Having so much information in your pocket will be Apple's greatest achievement. It will, in fact, be the NEXT Step.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by solsun

Well, I hope you're right.. But I'm not so sure... Macs had an explosive quarter last quarter, and even if iPods didn't meet everyones expectations it still showed slight YOY growth.. This may be the first quarter since 2001 where YOY iPod growth may be flat or even show a slight decline..

Mac growth has been on the rise for several years now, most analysts haven't said or cared much about it.. It seems that in general, analysts seem to view Apple as a one trick pony, or as the "iPod maker."

Analysts don't matter, they don't buy and sell stocks. Just look at the guys now saying they have price targets of $250 for proof. People like to blame analysts but besides being a waste of space, they don't move stocks over more than a couple day time frame. If Apple's earnings rock, the stock will go up.

[solsun]

Originally Posted by cameronj

Analysts don't matter, they don't buy and sell stocks. Just look at the guys now saying they have price targets of $250 for proof. People like to blame analysts but besides being a waste of space, they don't move stocks over more than a couple day time frame. If Apple's earnings rock, the stock will go up.

Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.

[solsun]

Originally Posted by cameronj

Analysts don't matter, they don't buy and sell stocks.

I wish it were true, but it's not.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by solsun

Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.

The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.

What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.

The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by solsun

Sorry, I have to disagree., it's much more than just earnings.. Last quarter is a prime example. Earnings "rocked," it was a record quarter in EVERY sense. Look what happened, Wall Street analysts didn't look at the overall picture, they looked at one segment, the iPod. And yes, some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.

I believe at one point Piper Jaffray late last year was predicting 500.00 a share. Guess that call was wrong. Doesn't matter at this point how Apple does they are going to be pulled down by the overall economy and the steady drop in the Nasdaq.

[extremeskater]

Originally Posted by cameronj

The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.

What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.

The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.

A 73 point loss in three months isn't exactly something to be bullish about. Even more so as the US economy gets worse. Apple does not fall under the catagory of a luxury cosumer company or product. Just because they rip you off on hardware doesn't mean they are a luxury product.

[solsun]

Originally Posted by cameronj

The fact is, analysts don't keep buyers from buying an undervalued stock. Right now the market is scared that Apple's earnings growth will slow as the economy slows. We don't think that will happen, but the market is made up of the collective opinions of millions of people, and that collective wisdom is pretty smart as long as things follow historical patterns.

What Apple bulls (myself included) are banking on is that Apple's earnings will go against historical patterns. A high end consumer electronics maker (IE a maker luxury consumer discretionaries) would typically struggle greatly to grow in this kind of economy. When it becomes clear that that's not the case, the market will buy into Apple no matter what any individual says.

The worship of analysts' power smacks of religion - you blame the invincible gods when they seem to influence events, but most of the time analysts simply put their finger to the wind and "report" what is already happening.

Well, like I said, I hope you're right. It seems we both agree on Apple's ability to perform. I however, am very skeptical about Wall Street's ability to comprehend that performance now that the iPod is no longer growing at 200%, 300%, and 400%.

So many things about what Apple is doing is greatly overlooked by Wall Street... Even for the past 4 years while the stock was riding high, the reports about why it was riding high were for the most part, all wrong.. As you said, "analysts simply put their finger to the wind and report what is already happening." Well, what's happening now is no longer as obvious as it once was. It's a multi-year strategy with the Mac and iPhone.

[solsun]

Originally Posted by extremeskater

A 73 point loss in three months isn't exactly something to be bullish about. Even more so as the US economy gets worse.

It all depends on what you're looking at.. If you're looking at Apple's actual performance and actual results (as you should,) then yes, there is plenty to be bullish about..

However, if you're looking at what the analysts are saying and how the market is reacting, then no, there's no much to be bullish about, which is exactly my point..

I have no doubt that Apple is going to continue to perform well a a company. However, I do have doubt that Wall street is going to react accordingly.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by solsun

Well, like I said, I hope you're right. It seems we both agree on Apple's ability to perform. I however, am very skeptical about Wall Street's ability to comprehend that performance now that the iPod is no longer growing at 200%, 300%, and 400%.

So many things about what Apple is doing is greatly overlooked by Wall Street... Even for the past 4 years while the stock was riding high, the reports about why it was riding high were for the most part, all wrong.. As you said, "analysts simply put their finger to the wind and report what is already happening." Well, what's happening now is no longer as obvious as it once was. It's a multi-year strategy with the Mac and iPhone.

Try being a (former) AMD investor. It takes a while (for good reason) for Wall Street to correct a company's valuation when it goes from perennial also-ran to competitor. Apple is still a tiny company in the overall PC market but that is changing. AMD did the same thing - had a brief period of stock success and then it fell back. Then came Opteron and AMD got a bigger run. So the question is, does Apple make it past the Barcelona debacle and grow again, and I think so.

[markb]

some analysts, still hold price targets in the $250 range, but they are a minority , Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, Shaw Wu, they are Apple supporters.. The majority have dropped their 12 month outlook into the sub $150 range.

The best current numbers I can find puts the median estimate at 180ish. I dont think its fair to say the majority or anything close to the majority is handicapping at sub $150.

I am bullish on the stock in general but I see two scenarios.

1. Economy recovers(ish), Apple has some breakthrough numbers in Apr. Announces 3G in June as well as 2 or 3 major new markets...stock would bounce to the 180s by July in that scenario. Justice is served

2. Economy stays stuck on stupid, inflation tears the hearts out of the American consumers pocketbook, the Tax rebate props up Apple for a quarter but... 100 a share is likely if the missed iPod numbers continue to fester under the skin of skittish investors.

Whats killin me is the lethargy behind the AppleTV product. I have one and love it, but cant dump Netflix until they get at least twice the rental content they have (and they really seem to be slowing down in the last two weeks). As an investor it pisses me off because this could be a nice revenue stream but they refuse to advertise it and seemed to have either duped us in terms of promised content, or been duped by the movie studios. Either way, bad mojo.

[solsun]

Originally Posted by cameronj

Apple is still a tiny company in the overall PC market but that is changing.

Hmm. I'm not sure that "tiny" is the right word.. Market-share is still small compared to the leaders. But if you look at annual revenue.. Apple is 3rd, behind HP and Dell (that's counting PC manufacturers, not Microsoft.)

[solsun]

Originally Posted by markb

The best current numbers I can find puts the median estimate at 180ish. I dont think its fair to say the majority or anything close to the majority is handicapping at sub $150.

Whats killin me is the lethargy behind the AppleTV product. I have one and love it, but cant dump Netflix until they get at least twice the rental content they have (and they really seem to be slowing down in the last two weeks). As an investor it pisses me off because this could be a nice revenue stream but they refuse to advertise it and seemed to have either duped us in terms of promised content, or been duped by the movie studios. Either way, bad mojo.

Okay, you're right.. Saying sub $150 isn't fair.. The median is around 180.. The majority are around 150-160, the top estimates (which are a few) are pulling the average up.

I agree about Apple TV.. I have one and love it too. Surprisingly, the past week has been good for new content additions.. If you haven't already, check out the below site.. They keep a daily running tally of all HD content, which for me, is all I'm interested in renting.. They were stuck with only about 100 HD rentals for the first three weeks, but there have been about 50 new HD releases in the past week or so..


www.appletvjunkie.com