Apple testing full multi-touch Macs - report

[AppleInsider]

Mac maker Apple Inc. is in the early developmental stages of a personal computer system that will rely exclusively on its revolutionary multi-touch technology rather than traditional input devices, investment bank Piper Jaffray said Tuesday.

"Looking into 2010, we expect Apple to advance its touchscreen technology, known as multi-touch, from simple trackpad features to a complete MacBook touch with touchscreen keypad features," analyst Gene Munster told investors. "Discussions we have had with component suppliers indicate that Apple is already testing full multi-touch Macs, but the software requirements will likely lead to a launch timeframe of 2010."

The analyst's comments were included in the second installment of a three part series covering Apple's "3 Cylinder Engine." Like the first report on the Cupertino-based firm's iPhone business published Monday, the new segment presents his views on the future direction of the Mac business, how to think about PC market share, upcoming Macs, and the latest on the Apple ecosystem.

In the more immediate future, Munster advised clients to look out for likely upgrades to the iMac and Mac mini sometime in the next 90 days, and upgraded MacBook and MacBook Pros in time for the educational buying season (which typically heats up in the July timeframe.)

For the just-ended March quarter, he's forecasting Apple to report sales of between 2.0 million and 2.1 million Mac systems, above Wall Street consensus estimates of 1.95 million units, representing approximately 40 percent yearly growth.

Among the important drivers fueling sales of the company's personal computer line are iPhone & iPod halo effects, the analyst said. He believes that by tightly integrating the elements of its ecosystem -- the iPod, iPhone and Mac -- the electronics maker is driving demand for its other two product categories with the sale of each third category product.

"In 2004, the iPod's third full year of sales, Apple sold more than twice as many iPods as it did Macs. And in the December 2007 quarter, Apple sold more iPhones than it did Macs," he wrote. "Clearly, these devices have enabled Apple to significantly expand its user base, which we believe will drive demand for Macs."

Munster noted that Apple has already managed to outpace the industry in terms of PC unit sales growth for the past three years, simultaneously raising the average selling price (ASP) of its systems amidst an industry pattern that has seen prices from rival PC makers trend downwards.

Nevertheless, the analyst said he's taking a conservative approach this year and modeling for Mac market share to remain relatively flat, or inline with the 2.9 percent worldwide share recently estimated by market research firm IDC. However, should Mac share rise just 60 basis points, it would added $0.89 or 17 percent to his calendar year 2008 per share earnings, he said.

At the same time, Munster advised clients that taking market share percentages from market research firms like IDC at face value may somewhat overstate Apple's opportunity, as those figures include sales to enterprises where Apple is not aggressively competing. At the same time, however, the company's opportunity in the sector remains vast.

"In the US, IDC indicates that Apple sold 4.2 million of the 67 million total PCs [in 2007]," he explained. "Again, if we assume 70 percent of those were Enterprise sales, then Apple's market share in the US was still just 21 percent."

In one final point presented in his Mac report Tuesday, the Piper Jaffray analyst also insinuated that Apple could also see incremental share gains should consumers begin to erode the notion that Macs cost 20 to 30 percent more than comparable Windows-based PCs.



"We took a closer look at some specific examples of buying comparably appointed Macs and PCs and found that on average, PC desktops are priced 16 percent lower than Macs, while PC laptops are priced 9 percent lower. This compares to similar checks we conducted almost 2 years ago in which we found PC desktops were 13 percent cheaper than Macs and PC laptops were 10 percent cheaper than Macs," he wrote. "We believe computer shoppers are willing to pay a premium (10 percent to 15 percent) for a Mac, and Mac sales would benefit if consumers realized that the actual premium is in fact 10 percent to 15 percent, as opposed to the perception that Macs are 20 percent to 30 percent more expensive."

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[Slewis]

Null.

[Solar]

Wow I didn't realize that Lenovo Made Giant Laptops

[ajay]

Perfect example of something that would invoke mixed emotions... news of multi-touch macs on the 1st of April

[Slewis]

Null.

[Buck]

The technology is so slow...
I can't wait for 2010. I want MacBook Touch now! This year!
Probably not gonna happen too. Bummer.

[ajay]

Originally Posted by Slewis

Oh well, when we're all using Avian/IP instead of TCP/IP none of this will matter.

that's it folks... we, as humans, are officially obsolete!

[DanUK]

Gotta love the Munster!

He does just what we do (idly speculate) only he get paid for it, people listen, and stock price changes.

Crazy world.

ps If this multi-touch Mac doesn't have 4 FW800 ports, forget it.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Solar

Wow I didn't realize that Lenovo Made Giant Laptops

It's what you need to make the real presentations.

[Tailpipe]

This story tells us nothing that we didn't know already.

That doesn't mean it isn't exciting stuff, it sure is.

But we need to look behind Piper Jaffray's hype to what is really going on. After forcing many Apple investors to take a bath when the stock tanked in February, Gene Munster is now trying to bid up the price by his second pronouncement in two days about future products. The truth is he knows Jack S**t, just like the rest of us. If Apple suppliers start releasing details on future products they won't remain suppliers for very long, so are unlikely to be sources of new product info.

When it comes to Apple's share price, the one story that no analyst wants to get out is Steve Job's recent illness due to cancer and what this means in terms of succession and Apple's future prospects. Can you imagine what it what do to Apple's share price if we suddenly found out that Apple's visionary leader was living on borrowed time? I for one, sincerely hope that this is not the case. Jobs has been one of the most visionary business leaders for many generations and his loss would be felt globally. But there is no denying that he looks thin and gaunt at recent press interviews. Has he beaten cancer? Until we know for sure, Apple's shares remain a hold, not a buy.

In the meantime, for goodness sake, Piper Jaffray, get a grip on your analysts before your reputation loses any remiaining vestige of credibility.

[Ireland]

Mac touch, not MacBook touch (damn you Gizmodo)

[Crtaylor]

I had a good feeling that somehow they would make a touchscreen computer. They could possibly make iMac Touches or even make their displays compatible with multitouch. This would totally eliminate the need for a mouse (except if you had big fingers). However, I think they need to make a touchscreen keyboard, too, as I would miss the traditional keyboard input device rather than an iPhone-style keyboard that would pop-up for everything. They also need to make these things stylus compatible as well. Wacom already has several solutions for this, but nothing beats their Cintiq models, which enable you to draw on a screen, but wouldn't drawing on an actual computer screen as painter would paint on canvas be better than a USB input device anyway?

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by Crtaylor

I had a good feeling that somehow they would make a touchscreen computer. They could possibly make iMac Touches or even make their displays compatible with multitouch. This would totally eliminate the need for a mouse (except if you had big fingers). However, I think they need to make a touchscreen keyboard, too, as I would miss the traditional keyboard input device rather than an iPhone-style keyboard that would pop-up for everything.

Wow, you're a genius

[zorinlynx]

Yes, Mac prices are comparable to PC prices for similar machines, BUT...

- There are no budget laptops in the Apple line. The starting Macbook is at around a grand. You can get PC laptops for around $400. Sure, the specs aren't very good, but most people will jump on that and be happy with a slower system than to spend $1000 on a better laptop.

- There is no economical minitower solution. This has been argued and re-argued so I'll leave it at that.


These two issues are keeping many people, who aren't as financially endowed, from buying Macs.

[Slewis]

Null.

[starwarrior]

Originally Posted by zorinlynx

Yes, Mac prices are comparable to PC prices for similar machines, BUT...

- There are no budget laptops in the Apple line. The starting Macbook is at around a grand. You can get PC laptops for around $400. Sure, the specs aren't very good, but most people will jump on that and be happy with a slower system than to spend $1000 on a better laptop.

- There is no economical minitower solution. This has been argued and re-argued so I'll leave it at that.


These two issues are keeping many people, who aren't as financially endowed, from buying Macs.

If they are not financially endowed, it means that they may also be to incompetent to use a computer anyway.
http://forums.appleinsider.com/image...ies/1devil.gif

[mstone]

Originally Posted by Slewis

Hopefully that "in place of traditional input methods" really means "in addition to" traditional input methods.

Might as well be instead of because Apple doesn't make a keyboard or mouse that is usable in my opinion. I just tossed an Apple wireless mouse and keyboard set in the trash last week. It's inexcusable really because those are probably the easiest pieces of computer equipment to manufacture and they have never been able to get it right.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by mstone

Might as well be instead of because Apple doesn't make a keyboard or mouse that is usable in my opinion. I just tossed an Apple wireless mouse and keyboard set in the trash last week. It's inexcusable really because those are probably the easiest pieces of computer equipment to manufacture and they have never been able to get it right.

Never been able to, or never wanted to? I think the problem is that they've been going for style over substance. Sometimes style is nice, I did buy the wireless keyboard for my HTPC to replace a Logitech boogieboard-sized unit, but I don't think it's that nice to type a lot on, thankfully, it's not necessary on the HTPC. I wouldn't use it at my desktop.

[Slewis]

Null.

[eldernorm]

I take this cost comparison as shady. as an example, Apples come with cameras and stearo built in. That adds cost but is not shown in the compares.

Just a thought.

[Constable Odo]

I never used an iPod or iPod Touch so I can't say that a virtual keyboard isn't any good. I grew up using typewriters (IBM Selectrics) and then graduated to computer keyboards. I was able to type at close to 100 WPM in my prime. I am comfortable with using a real keyboard. I like key travel and resistance feedback.

I'm not to sure I want to give up a real keyboard for a virtual one. Perhaps if Apple starts to use voice input or something that is very accurate, I might concede, but I don't think this is likely. As long as I'm given the option to use a real keyboard, then I won't complain. A few sentences shouldn't be a problem, but typing reports and books on a screen keyboard really doesn't seem that good a substitute for a real full-size keyboard.

Maybe I'm just out of touch. The computing world is changing, so maybe I should just try to adjust to whatever the future has waiting for me.

[Slewis]

Null.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by Slewis

Their keyboards are fine (for me, but there are 3rd party solutions though and it doesn't sound like you're using their laptops anyway),

I do have MBP and I would prefer and actual right click especially when in Windows. That keyboard is better than the others, but it is just a notebook. I have another one of the new style wired keyboards and it is just silly. To use expose pressing the fn key is tedious. I suppose I could do some remapping but instead of "It Just Works" it just doesn't.

m

[Slewis]

Null.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by Slewis

Hmm, haven't you enabled 2 finger clicking? I much prefer not having a second mouse button getting my way, and I think Apple's drivers handle it in Windows too. There's also a checkbox in the System Preferences that removes the need to hold fn.

Good to know.

I just prefer a normal keyboard and mouse. Nothing fancy, not ultra sleek, not a crumb tray, not side buttons on the mouse or secret handshakes.

Third party solutions are pretty bad too, like Logitec, because they offer a zillion buttons and features to be cool but most of them don't work or don't work on Mac.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by Tailpipe

This story tells us nothing that we didn't know already.…

In the meantime, for goodness sake, Piper Jaffray, get a grip on your analysts before your reputation loses any remiaining vestige of credibility.

And your analysis would be…?

Piper Jaffray isn't releasing these reports for you. It for their clients. In fact, unless you are a client or prospective client, you only get a snippet of the report that the company wants to release.

As I have said before, Investment brokerages have a responsibility to their prospective clients to advise them re their stock porfolio. Their clients, in most cases, are not the people seen here and in many cases their understanding of Panther, Tiger and Leopard is what they have seen on the Discovery Channel.

By the way, it is not your business to know what Jobs' medical condition is unless he personally wants to disclose it. And unless he releases it, it is against the law to do it for him.

One would have to be quite dumb if they didn't appreciate the consequences of everybody having to publically disclose such personal information to keep their job.

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by Slewis

Hopefully that "in place of traditional input methods" really means "in addition to" traditional input methods.

T_T;

Sebastian

starts humming theme to 'Star Trek'...

Never saw a "mouse" or "keyboard" being needed on 'Star Trek TNG' or 'Voyager', etc., just mighty fast fingers using "multi-touch"! Happy April fool's everyone, be careful out there today.

Never using a Windows based computer in my life (not that I didn't punch a few keys and double clicked an icon or two at the local computer store), what am I missing (or am I) with regards to this "right click" some people lament about??? Seriously...

[Kolchak]

Originally Posted by Slewis

As for speech recognition? Considering how little Apple has shown in Mac OS X so far, I wouldn't hold my breath, but MacSpeech Dictate is licensing the Dragon NaturallySpeaking engine so there is at least one good 3rd party product, it's just not shipping yet.

Dictate has been shipping for weeks now. It's not all that great, though, aside from the Dragon technology. Compared with DNS, it's missing huge chunks of functionality that Macspeech has promised will be added in later versions. As of right now, it can be absolutely maddening, though. Only borderline functional. On my machine, at least, it refuses to work with Pages. So I dictate into Dictate's Notepad to cut and paste into Pages. But Notepad has some horrible issues with cursor positioning, text deletion and insertion, etc. I'll give them a few months, but I may ditch the program if they don't make some serious fixes soon.

The main problem with voice recognition as a primary interface is that it's slow and limited. If you're working with words, it's fine. But you'll never use it with Photoshop or even a web browser, except maybe to issue a few commands. Certainly can't click on a link with it or select a marquee area. And I can point a lot faster than I can say, "Zoom in on section A2" a la Star Trek.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by DanUK

Gotta love the Munster!

He does just what we do (idly speculate) only he get paid for it, people listen, and stock price changes.

Crazy world.

ps If this multi-touch Mac doesn't have 4 FW800 ports, forget it.

I was going to say, Munster will do anything to pump up the stock at this point.

[SpamSandwich]

We all know that once Apple has decided on a vision for the future of computing, they will doggedly integrate that vision into all of their products, cases in point: iTunes simplicity, cover flow, touch/multi-touch.

Whatever comes next will be an extension of past success.

[coremonkey]

Originally Posted by mstone

Might as well be instead of because Apple doesn't make a keyboard or mouse that is usable in my opinion. I just tossed an Apple wireless mouse and keyboard set in the trash last week. It's inexcusable really because those are probably the easiest pieces of computer equipment to manufacture and they have never been able to get it right.

Bullox! I'll hand it to you with the mice... The "Mighty" Mouse does have a nice scroll ball, but still feels like I'm holding a bar of soap and Apple missed the multi-button concept by about 15 years.

All of the keyboards have always been very cleanly designed and a pleasure to type on however. In addition, they hold up very well over the course of time. Yes, they could use a few more multi-media keys perhaps, but the additional row of buttons would detract from Apple's traditional clean, minimalist design. Can't have your cake and eat it too, eh?

[lantzn]

Originally Posted by DanUK

ps If this multi-touch Mac doesn't have 4 FW800 ports, forget it.

Yes but by then it will be wireless firewire.
http://www.1394ta.org/Press/2004Press/may/5.10.a.htm

[lantzn]

Originally Posted by mstone

Might as well be instead of because Apple doesn't make a keyboard or mouse that is usable in my opinion. I just tossed an Apple wireless mouse and keyboard set in the trash last week. It's inexcusable really because those are probably the easiest pieces of computer equipment to manufacture and they have never been able to get it right.

I would have paid the shipping to have you send me those.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by mstone

Good to know.

I just prefer a normal keyboard and mouse. Nothing fancy, not ultra sleek, not a crumb tray, not side buttons on the mouse or secret handshakes.

Third party solutions are pretty bad too, like Logitec, because they offer a zillion buttons and features to be cool but most of them don't work or don't work on Mac.

I don't know if you've tried any, but several of the odd buttons on my Logitech Bluetooth keyboard do work for its labeled function.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by mstone

Might as well be instead of because Apple doesn't make a keyboard or mouse that is usable in my opinion. I just tossed an Apple wireless mouse and keyboard set in the trash last week. It's inexcusable really because those are probably the easiest pieces of computer equipment to manufacture and they have never been able to get it right.

No it isn't.

Like a baseball or child's mitt, a catcher's, golfer, astronaut or ski gloves, every hand and the way we use them are different.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by lantzn

Yes but by then it will be wireless firewire.
http://www.1394ta.org/Press/2004Press/may/5.10.a.htm

Crap, wireless wires! What will they think of next?!

[Olternaut]

Originally Posted by Slewis

Hopefully that "in place of traditional input methods" really means "in addition to" traditional input methods.

T_T;

Sebastian

Why would you hope that? "in place" does not mean "in addition to". What, are you in denial or something?

Thats kinda sad.

[mstone]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

No it isn't.

Like a baseball or child's mitt, a catcher's, golfer, astronaut or ski gloves, every hand and the way we use them are different.

I'm thinking more like broken different, carpal tunnel, sticky key, won't stay connected bluetooth, crumb collecting, scroller ball stuck in one direction different.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Olternaut

Why would you hope that? "in place" does not mean "in addition to". What, are you in denial or something?

Thats kinda sad.

Yes, but for reasons that probably aren't what what you're thinking. When reports of reports are made, it's often restated in a way that doesn't fully reflect the original intention. The AI writers are not all top writers, so simple mistakes like that can and do get made. It doesn't even matter the medium, mistakes are made, even with the traditional media. So it helps to be careful about what you take from any given piece.

[diskimage]

Bullox! I'll hand it to you with the mice... The "Mighty" Mouse does have a nice scroll ball, but still feels like I'm holding a bar of soap and Apple missed the multi-button concept by about 15 years.

Have you heard about something called keyboard shortcuts. The other button was simply not needed because it could be done faster with keyboard shortcuts. The only thing I use the right click for is spell checking. Also Apple had the right click as far back as OS 9 (maybe farther I never used OS 8) if you pressed the control key and clicked.