Analyst triggers stock surge; flash sales may tumble 66 percent

[AppleInsider]

An investor note by Thomas Weisel Partners has triggered a rush on Apple stock after suggesting that the iPhone and Mac would drive Apple sales for years. Also, iSuppli sees a lack of flash orders from Apple; Microsoft and Yahoo have traded shots over a takeover bid; and Apple may take the matter of an 8800 GT upgrade card into its own hands.

Analyst touts iPhone, Mac as key drivers

Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Doug Reid launched a rush on Apple stock Monday with a research note that pointed to strong long-term growth at Apple for at least the next two years.

The expert claims that Apple will continue to draw in customers through both a sustained "leadership of the aesthetic" as well as a belief that Mac OS X Leopard is more likely to trump Windows Vista in media-centrict homes. A 3G iPhone and the iPhone SDK will help the Cupertino company's handset business, Reid adds.

He estimates a 38 percent year-over-year growth of Mac sales revenue in 2008 to $14.2 billion as well much larger iPhone sales for the handset's first full year on the market, jumping from $123 million in 2007 to just over $2 billion this year. Computer sales would be well above the 3 percent for the PC business as a whole.

The positive comments were enough to help drive Apple shares to nearly $160 in Monday trading, settling at $155.89 (up $2.81) by the end of the day.

iSuppli warns of $400 million Apple flash shortfall

Apple could be one of the largest single contributors to a major shortfall in NAND flash memory orders this year, according to an iSuppli report.

Where the analyst firm had forecast a spike in orders for the storage chips of 27 percent year over year to $17.9 billion, it changed its estimate on Monday to just 9 percent, or $15.2 billion.

The drop is attributed to a tumble in worldwide consumer spending triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis. However, with Apple's iPhones and iPods making it the third largest client for flash memory, a newly expected drop in the electronics giant's orders for flash is estimated to cost suppliers as much as $400 million by itself.

Apple hasn't made large orders for memory so far this year and is contributing to price cuts by memory producers who continue to face an oversupply problem, iSuppli says. The MacBook Air's solid-state drives are reportedly shipped in too few quantities to have an effect.

Microsoft, Yahoo argue over takeover ultimatum

Microsoft drew a line in the sand on Saturday when it established a three-week deadline for Yahoo to accept its takeover bid.

The Windows designer's chief executive, Steve Ballmer, has sent Yahoo a letter threatening to launch a proxy battle that would vote in a board of directors favorable to the takeover, which Microsoft has alleged is essential to fighting Google's control of web ads and searches.

It also claims that Yahoo should appreciate the existing $31 per share offer due to a worsening US economy and that the search engine firm has hurt its value with strategic decisions over the months since the takeover was proposed in January.

Yahoo, however, has rejected the allegations through its own letter and insists that it will only consider an increased Microsoft offer. The Microsoft bid devalues Yahoo and neglects a drop in the fortunes of the former's own stock.

Microsoft also hasn't addressed antitrust concerns that are likely to creep up, Yahoo says.

Apple to manufacture own Mac Pro GeForce upgrades?

A message on Mac Rumors' forums is raising eyebrows through its claims of a solution to ongoing troubles with upgrades for first-generation Mac Pro workstations.

In a reported e-mail, Apple chief Steve Jobs has reportedly assured one owner of the Xeon-based tower that a backwards-compatible version of the GeForce 8800 GT would be available "in about a month."

Although NVIDIA itself had promised a new version of the card that would support the original firmware, the update has not yet materialized at Apple's store, prompting criticism from owners expecting a clear upgrade path from the cards offered with the Mac Pro's 2006 introduction.

Jobs is known to periodically reply personally to customers with certain questions, though the authenticity of the e-mail is unknown.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[melgross]

I'm not sure I understand the bit about the cards. Apple makes its own cards. There's no reason to believe that Nvidia has to get involved in making a card properly compliant, esp. as the reason was mostly about pinning on the card. The original card wasn't properly designed in the first place, because all cards designed for Express 1 are supposed to be compatible with Express 2, and visa versa, according to the standard.

[jmadlena]

Originally Posted by melgross

I'm not sure I understand the bit about the cards. Apple makes its own cards. There's no reason to believe that Nvidia has to get involved in making a card properly compliant, esp. as the reason was mostly about pinning on the card. The original card wasn't properly designed in the first place, because all cards designed for Express 1 are supposed to be compatible with Express 2, and visa versa, according to the standard.

I'm pretty sure that NVIDIA makes the GeForce cards for the Mac Pro, not Apple.

[Phizz]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Jobs is known to periodically reply personally to customers with certain questions, though the authenticity of the e-mail is unknown.

I've never heard this. Is there a website or something showing examples? Fair play to the man if it's true.

[Shogun]

I got an email from the Steve once. Totally unexpected. It was when they put Rosa Parks on their homepage after her death. I thought it showed a real lack of class as it seemed to me at the time that they were capitalizing on her death to sell computers.

I wrote a strongly worded email demanding that they take it down and amazingly enough got an email back from Steve Jobs that began, "You are wrong about this." He then went on to say briefly that they spoke to her several times about a previous campaign and had much respect for her and were going to display her picture and name out of that respect. I wanted to write back and grovel as the point was well-taken.

On the Flash subject, it seems to me that Apple wants to get their hands on HD sized SSDs asap, so they're probably holding out till the last minute when their flash supply is nearing zero so they can order huge and get some decent prices on the big stuff.

[Samnuva]

Since when is 2.61 a massive stock surge?

[BjK]

Ok, get ready for some fuzzy math.

a = 2007 iPhone unit sales = 1,389,000
b = 2007 Income From Sales = 123,000,000
c = 2007 Per Unit Income = 88.5529158 [b/a]
d = Est. 2008 income from cumulative sales = 2,000,000,000
e = Est. Cumulative unit sales = 22,585,366 [d/c]
f = Est. 2008 unit sales = 21,196,365 [e-a]

Thoughts?

[minderbinder]

Originally Posted by Samnuva

Since when is 2.61 a massive stock surge?

It was up to almost 160 before dropping a bit, that's a surge. And who ever said "massive"?

[BjK]

Originally Posted by melgross

I'm not sure I understand the bit about the cards. Apple makes its own cards.

Did you mean to say Apple makes it's own card firmware? nVidia is certainly the manufacturer of the card in question.

EDIT: Nevermind, I'm an idiot. I should have trusted that a person with melgross's experience would know what he's talking about.

[Kasper]

Originally Posted by Phizz

I've never heard this. Is there a website or something showing examples? Fair play to the man if it's true.

Steve indeed responds to emails from time to time... It's legit.

Best,

K

[ikir]

Originally Posted by melgross

I'm not sure I understand the bit about the cards. Apple makes its own cards. There's no reason to believe that Nvidia has to get involved in making a card properly compliant, esp. as the reason was mostly about pinning on the card. The original card wasn't properly designed in the first place, because all cards designed for Express 1 are supposed to be compatible with Express 2, and visa versa, according to the standard.

You don't get the point. The new card is not compatible with EFI 32 of old macpro. Apple will release hopefully a specific efi32 version. The new one has efi 64.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

iSuppli warns of $400 million Apple flash shortfall

Apple could be one of the largest single contributors to a major shortfall in NAND flash memory orders this year, according to an iSuppli report.

Where the analyst firm had forecast a spike in orders for the storage chips of 27 percent year over year to $17.9 billion, it changed its estimate on Monday to just 9 percent, or $15.2 billion.

The drop is attributed to a tumble in worldwide consumer spending triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis. However, with Apple's iPhones and iPods making it the third largest client for flash memory, a newly expected drop in the electronics giant's orders for flash is estimated to cost suppliers as much as $400 million by itself.

Apple hasn't made large orders for memory so far this year and is contributing to price cuts by memory producers who continue to face an oversupply problem, iSuppli says. The MacBook Air's solid-state drives are reportedly shipped in too few quantities to have an effect.

Apple's just waiting for the market to reach maximum pain so they can secure a long term contract and very good prices. With flash hard drives starting to hit the market, I think flash prices could actually rise in the next couple years. Selling 64 or 128 GB at a time for an ever growing chunk of the laptop market will bleed the supply dry far more quickly than 1-2 GB at a time in flash memory sticks and SD cards.

[Booga]

Originally Posted by BjK

Did you mean to say Apple makes it's own card firmware? nVidia is certainly the manufacturer of the card in question.

Really? I didn't know nVidia manufactured video cards. They certainly didn't used to when I used to buy them on the PC side-- nVidia just sold chipsets to card manufacturers. When did they start manufacturing whole cards? (link?)

[BjK]

Originally Posted by Booga

Really? I didn't know nVidia manufactured video cards. They certainly didn't used to when I used to buy them on the PC side-- nVidia just sold chipsets to card manufacturers. When did they start manufacturing whole cards? (link?)

*gulps hard*

I assumed they manufactured their own cards, sorry all. I tried to back up my claim, and realized I didn't know what I was talking about. I've only purchased specific cards as a BTO option, and I haven't even done that since switching to macs. I've edited my post.

[MsNly]

Originally Posted by Phizz

I've never heard this. Is there a website or something showing examples? Fair play to the man if it's true.

I actually got one from him once to, it was very short, about a sentence or two. That actually makes me think it was from him haha.

[iPeon]

Originally Posted by BjK

*gulps hard*

I assumed they manufactured their own cards, sorry all. I tried to back up my claim, and realized I didn't know what I was talking about. I've only purchased specific cards as a BTO option, and I haven't even done that since switching to macs. I've edited my post.

Aaaaa, don't feel so bad. I was under the impression that NVIDIA® manufactured these cards? But hey, I must confess that this was an assumption.

Since when has Apple been making their own Video cards?

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The Windows designer's chief executive, Steve Ballmer... ...also claims that Yahoo should appreciate the existing $31 per share offer due to a worsening US economy and that the search engine firm has hurt its value with strategic decisions over the months since the takeover was proposed in January.

Yahoo, however, has rejected the allegations through its own letter and insists that it will only consider an increased Microsoft offer. The Microsoft bid devalues Yahoo and neglects a drop in the fortunes of the former's own stock.

I was going to say... Ballmer criticizing Yahoo on hurting its value with strategic decisions over the months... if that's not the Kettle calling the Pot black.

Sure MS has had it's problems, anti trust suits here in the US in the late 1990's and with the European Union, Pirated software, Longhorn delays and Vista troubles if you believe some people (I'm just trying to be fair here), but hey Steve Ballmer and MSFT, you are not alone... Apple has had it's fair share, such as the promise of 3Ghz IMB PowerPC processor chip debacle, backdating stock options mess, Steve Jobs health scare (once news was released to the media), music/movie industries giving Apple hard time with contract renewals or pulling out all together because of Apple's success. So each has had their fair share of "issues" to deal with and yet Apple's stock has blossomed, fallen and blossomed again. Microsoft stock was at a high of $92 on April 1, 1999 - eight years ago! If you look back at the last five years, it has remained flat, hovering from the mid twenties to a 52 week high of $37.50 and Steve Ballmer has the "chutzpah" to even remotely critique Yahoo's stategic decisions hurting Yahoo value.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by BjK

Ok, get ready for some fuzzy math.

a = 2007 iPhone unit sales = 1,389,000
b = 2007 Income From Sales = 123,000,000
c = 2007 Per Unit Income = 88.5529158 [b/a]
d = Est. 2008 income from cumulative sales = 2,000,000,000
e = Est. Cumulative unit sales = 22,585,366 [d/c]
f = Est. 2008 unit sales = 21,196,365 [e-a]

Thoughts?

I think it has to do with screwy revenue recognition methods that Apple has chosen to pursue. 2007 is only half a year of 'revenue.' 2008 will be a full year, so the forecasted number will be f/2 = 10,598,182 units. That seems closer in line with Apple's own predictions.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Samnuva

Since when is 2.61 a massive stock surge?

Thomas Weisel Partners analyst Doug Reid launched a rush on Apple stock Monday with a research note that pointed to strong long-term growth at Apple for at least the next two years.

Since when is a rush $2.61?

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Kasper

Steve indeed responds to emails from time to time... It's legit.

Best,

K

Alright, alright everyone. Don't get too excited. Jobs runs a company, he's not the second coming, fer ****'s sake.

[MsNly]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Since when is a rush $2.61?

I know right? Personally, I think of the way gas is nowadays, and shouldn't Exxon going up by 18 cents be a rush?

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Alright, alright everyone. Don't get too excited. Jobs runs a company, he's not the second coming, fer ****'s sake.

Well, If only I wasn't an atheist...

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Alright, alright everyone. Don't get too excited. Jobs runs a company, he's not the second coming, fer ****'s sake.

Book of Jobs — Chapter 1
30 - And it came to pass that [email recipient] called upon [Jobs], saying: Tell me, I pray thee, why these things are so, and by what thou madest them?
31 - And behold, the glory of the [Steve] was upon [email recipient], so that [email recipient] stood in the presence of [Jobs], and talked with him [inter]face to [inter]face. And [Jobs] said unto [email recipient]: For mine own purpose have I made these things. Here is wisdom and it remaineth in me.
32 - And by the word of my power, have I created them, which is mine [Tech Company], who is full of [innovation] and [style].

[BjK]

Originally Posted by iPeon

Aaaaa, don't feel so bad. I was under the impression that NVIDIA® manufactured these cards? But hey, I must confess that this was an assumption.

Yeah, I saw that page, but it only mentions that they are nvidia GPUs, not nvidia cards. All the (non-apple) cards that I found were manufactured by other companies. Live and learn I guess

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

I think it has to do with screwy revenue recognition methods that Apple has chosen to pursue. 2007 is only half a year of 'revenue.' 2008 will be a full year, so the forecasted number will be f/2 = 10,598,182 units. That seems closer in line with Apple's own predictions.

Ah yes, that makes more sense. Also, the revenue from units sold in 2007 would be double in 2008. [b*2] Taking this into account
brings us to 9,903,500, which is even closer. It seems like his 'prediction' is the same thing everyone else is saying.

[Phizz]

Originally Posted by Kasper

Steve indeed responds to emails from time to time... It's legit.

Best,

K

Great - so what's his email address?

[Walter Slocombe]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Book of Jobs — Chapter 1
30 - And it came to pass that [email recipient] called upon [Jobs], saying: Tell me, I pray thee, why these things are so, and by what thou madest them?
31 - And behold, the glory of the [Steve] was upon [email recipient], so that [email recipient] stood in the presence of [Jobs], and talked with him [inter]face to [inter]face. And [Jobs] said unto [email recipient]: For mine own purpose have I made these things. Here is wisdom and it remaineth in me.
32 - And by the word of my power, have I created them, which is mine [Tech Company], who is full of [innovation] and [style].

Har Har, a real day brightener cheers!

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Since when is a rush $2.61?

It was an intra-day rush of nearly $6.50 (approx. $153 at close of previous day, and $159.50 around noon).

[melgross]

Originally Posted by jmadlena

I'm pretty sure that NVIDIA makes the GeForce cards for the Mac Pro, not Apple.

Unlike ATI, Nvidia doesn't make cards, as far as I know. What they do is have standard designs that manufacturers can use. But they have to build their own.

Which cards do you know of that are made by Nvidia?

And, those with Mac Pro's, can take a look at the cards and see who manufactured them.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by ikir

You don't get the point. The new card is not compatible with EFI 32 of old macpro. Apple will release hopefully a specific efi32 version. The new one has efi 64.

I get the point. The point is that they are supposed to be compatible, EFI or not.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Alright, alright everyone. Don't get too excited. Jobs runs a company, he's not the second coming, fer ****'s sake.

Well, other than the religious aspect, he is the second coming in that this is the second time he's been running the company, and possibly, he did resurrect it.

[David Stevenson]

Originally Posted by Phizz

Great - so what's his email address?

sjobs@apple.com (as of a few years ago).
Also, if you show up at the annual stockholders' meeting and stand in line, he does answer any questions addressed to him, and not usually in a terse fashion (in my experience): he is usually unusually gracious in responding to even the most inane question.