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#1 |
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Kasper's Automated Slave
Join Date: Nov 1997
Posts: 6,151
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Analyst warns of iPhone 2.0's effect on BlackBerry, Palm share
The introduction of both native third-party applications and enterprise support to the iPhone is likely to sap further marketshare away from Palm and Research in Motion, says an investor note from Needham & Co.
Charlie Wolf of the financial group explains that neither company will be in a safe position with the anticipated June release of the iPhone's version 2.0 firmware making the Apple device more viable not just as a home user's device but also in the enterprise market that Palm and RIM have called home for some time. The BlackBerry maker in particular faces the greatest impact. Although it remains the definitive leader in business with the largest amount of US marketshare and close competition with Windows Mobile worldwide, the Canadian company could see its growth "slow materially" from the June quarter onwards. Once quality third-party apps are available for the iPhone, there will be less incentive to use BlackBerries for their software. In light of the Apple development kit, RIM's development environment is "comparatively primitive" and will likely result in nothing more than essential "meat and potatoes" apps for the BlackBerry, Wolf says. And while Exchange support for the iPhone will give it secure "push" email similar to the BlackBerry, making it an option for businesses that have previously had to rule out Apple's handset, the real danger in the long term is for the BlackBerry's early steps into the consumer marketplace. The analyst contends that RIM has a competent platform in its OS and phones like the Pearl, but also that its breakneck growth is more a virtue of providing a capable offering versus incompetent alternatives. "BlackBerry is currently the front-runner in the consumer smartphone market in part because it met the criteria for success in this market and in part because its competitors until quite recently were simply inept," the Needham researcher elaborates. "Their failure stemmed less from their ability to design sleek phones than in their choice of an operating system on which to run them." Wolf singles out Windows Mobile as possibly driving many customers into RIM's arms with a "difficult" OS that may satisfy the enterprise but often pushes consumers towards the BlackBerry and other alternatives. Apple is and will be stealing some of RIM's success because it's the first competitor to offer a genuine alternative for consumers who want a smartphone. The other major American smartphone maker, Palm, is already placed in a poor position by the analyst. Most of the damage done to Palm is said to be self-inflicted through complacency -- neither the OS nor the phones have changed significantly for years, Wolf adds -- but the addition of Exchange and third-party apps to Apple's phone will add another competitor to a market that has already downplayed Palm's efforts. Palm's new Centro smartphone is also characterized as a stopgap measure to tide users over until a real, Linux-based Treo replacement is available near the end of 2008. It sells for as little as $99 but isn't seen as capable of holding its own against either the iPhone or other rivals for the next few quarters. Most customers are attracted to the Centro for its price rather than its feature set, a situation the Needham researcher says is likely to change once prices drop. "It’s little more than a down sized Treo," he comments. |
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#2 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2
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Focus on OS
The discussion of which OS a phone is running in this article, and many others, by people who do not seem to be uber phone geeks is awesome. I believe that until iPhone many "lay" people did not know, notice or care what OS they ran or what a difference it makes to their mobile phone experience. I firmly believe that everyone is underestimating the impact iPhone will have on the phone industry. I think only Steve Jobs has hinted that it really will change the way we think about phones just as the Mac did with computers and the iPod did with mp3 players. Thanks.
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#3 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The kool-aid stand...
Posts: 2,187
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I know a lot of people with BB's including me and very few use the Enterprise software. In fact, I don't know but maybe 2 people that use it. Most are stand alone. So I am always curious who these people are because there must be a lot of them.
I have an iPhone too and it would be killing the BB without 2.0 if it was available on all carriers. I think that is blatantly obvious from seeing AT&T's less than stellar coverage area when compared to Verizon that carrier is the cornerstone on swiftly turning the market and not enterprise. This opinion is subject to Visual Voicemail support being equal across carriers and me not being wrong.
Hardcore.
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#4 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,218
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#5 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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I guess it could be argued that Palm and Blackberry filled a need. But it wasn't a need that most consumers had, and it wasn't something they wanted either. What the iPhone represents was a credible attempt at making something consumers want.
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#6 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Jersey (new)
Posts: 1,001
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![]() ![]() I can't argue with that! Of course, coverage varies by region--I have found that in my corner of the world, where I make 95% of my calls, at&t is superior to Verizon. My parents have found the same thing 4 states away where they live. Certainly, Verizon is better in other places without a doubt but the big map of coverage area doesn't really tell the important story... Nevertheless, I agree that, while Apple may have had very good reasons to sign the exclusivity deal with at&t before the rollout, it is going to seem like a dead weight holding them back for the next four years. I wonder if there is a secret opt-out clause...
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c. |
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#7 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 271
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I'm sorry, but RIM has an excellent established enterprise system, and the buttons on their phones to use it. The iPhone is cool, but it truly needs other elements to make it enterprise worthy. Love to see it happen, but not holding my breath.
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#8 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,249
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#9 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 747
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Quote:
The agreement is therefore not a dead weight, but a source of monthly income for Apple - something no other mobile phone maker has been able to achieve.
Ken
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#10 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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Didn't you see the video of the February presentation? They addressed pretty much everything that was being requested for "Enterprise" use, save Lotus Notes integration, and the open standards counterparts to Exchange.
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#11 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Jersey (new)
Posts: 1,001
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Quote:
I don't know if this will happen, just that the next 4 years could seem like a long time...
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c. |
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#12 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 64
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#13 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Stuttgart, Germany
Posts: 60
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Perspective...
I realize that enterprise support is important to a great number of people, but it can't be forgotten that the consumer market is much bigger than the enterprise market.
Apple's decision to cater to the consumer market first is what will eventually make them much bigger than RIM or even Nokia in the overall smartphone market worldwide. |
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#14 | ||||
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Boise, ID among others
Posts: 529
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Quote:
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I agree with you on the exclusive nonsense... five years is a LONG time and will definitely hold them back in the USA, at least until Verizon and AT&T both have 700mhz LTE networks rolled out.. which may indeed take just as long. Quote:
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There are many reasons why a lot of people will not readily jump to an AT&T-locked phone: 1) locked into a mandatory business /corporate account through their employer, and don't wish to carry two cellphones. 2) AT&T having crap coverage in their local area 3) AT&T having crap coverage in areas that they routinely travel 4) iPhone not being able to accept cheap, pre-paid foreign SIM cards while traveling 5) Locked into existing long-term contract In my case, I drive between two cities routinely for work and pleasure, and AT&T doesn't have coverage for nearly 200+ miles between them, EVEN ALONG A MAJOR HIGHWAY! THAT will not work. I am NOT going to be stranded on the side of the highway without phone coverage! Didn't IBM announce Lotus Notes integration is on the way? |
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#15 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 4
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You bet they will. At the least the 50 Million who own the Ipod are going to get one. Told my middle schooler today that I will break his iphone
for applications. He said: "great, now I can have as many applications as my friend (just a girl) who has four pages of launch icons on hers". Holy cow, who needs an Apple SDK. They will not let hackers experiment with it anyway. |
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#16 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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Has that really been officially confirmed? I know it was reported in the business news, I think Business Week, but I don't remember Apple or AT&T confirming the time period.
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#17 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 6,115
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It is a dead weight when you have so many more potential new customers that simply refuse to join AT&T- iPhone or no iPhone.
Last edited by teckstud; 04-10-2008 at 10:15 AM.. |
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#18 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Ansible
Posts: 11,776
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If [(P x T - L x P) x 24] - S x N > 0 then carrier associations are better for Apple. P = Profit paid to Apple from AT&T each month per customer on average T = number of iPhone customers on AT&T's network L = The perceived number potential iPhone users who will not use AT&T's network and therefore will not buy an iPhone S = Assumed profit from sales of unlocked iPhone N = Number of units sold 24 refers to a 2 year contract (We could include those that will unlock the device for use with other GSM if we wanted to and add in other costs, but I am trying to use a simple model here) - Please correct if I am wrong. It's been a very long time since I tried to o something like this. Last edited by solipsism; 04-10-2008 at 05:56 PM.. |
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#19 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 472
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I love it when a plan comes together!
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#20 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Boise, ID among others
Posts: 529
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Quote:
Having said all that, assuming this 5-year contract is real, it would have been MUCH WISER in my opinion to shorten that exclusivity period to 18-24 months. That way, even if AT&T would only give them half of the revenue share that they would otherwise receive with a 5-year exclusivity, they would easily make it up in the MILLIONS of sales they would get from Verizon/Sprint converts with a CDMA iPhone. IMHO, This would be the best of both worlds: 1) Apple receives AT&T's help with all aspects of the iPhone launch, from assisting in technical development and testing on their network to AT&T's help promoting and selling the phone through advertising, promotions, and in-store displays/test units. Remember, many people who walk into an AT&T store to play with the iPhone might have NEVER otherwise been able to physically experiment with it due to the limited reach of Apple stores outside of major metro areas. Also having a carrier partner guarantees Apple would not have to deal with the major incumbents like RIM, Nokia, Sony Ericcson, et all pressuring the carriers to not sell the device in their stores or otherwise find a way to blackball the iPhone. 2) For the 18-24 months of exclusivity, Apple receives x amount of monthly revenue share per contract signed. 3) MOST IMPORTANTLY, once they are in the marketplace and have their iPhone operations and sales streamlined, they can finally drop the exclusivity and made a CDMA/EVDO iPhone and obtain MILLIONS more sales than they otherwise would receive. There are LEGIONS of people who will not switch from Verizon or Sprint to AT&T, iPhone or not. Reasons include being on a corporate contract with another carrier (me), not getting AT&T service in their area or areas they frequent (me), people who travel overseas and can't swap the SIM card for a cheap local pre-paid one because of the AT&T lock, people who have had BAD experiences with AT&T's in the past (me), etc. I think this would be MUCH preferred to a 5 YEAR exclusivity. I have to wonder if AT&T was firm about the length of time in negotiations. If the 5 years is really true, It seems like they are going to be missing out on a lot of potential sales because of it. But you never know.. Remember, that Apple guy did say "Apple is not dedicated to any particular carrier model, we are dedicated to creating great phones" |
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#21 | ||
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Ansible
Posts: 11,776
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I know it is, but I surely couldn't do it justice if I tried to make it accurate and what I could do would make it more complicated that needs to be for my post.
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If AT&T wasn't the first choice, Apple may have had to sign a longer deal to get them onboard. |
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#22 | ||
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,249
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I don't think they are having problems with potential new customers. Quote:
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#23 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Seattle area
Posts: 614
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Even though CDMA may not be popular elsewhere in the world, in the US there's a huge market in the CDMA sector. So IMO, a CDMA iPhone seems a given at some point, otherwise the US GSM market becomes saturated and stagnate. As Winterspan points out, AT&T isn't the first choice as a provider for the majority of US cellphone users.
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#24 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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#25 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Ansible
Posts: 11,776
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Quote:
I've have excellent service for the past year. Not one complaint. I don't think I'm alone in that either. I wonder if my previous issues with Cingular—and other teclos—were manly catalyzed by the horrible phones I was using. |
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#26 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Boise, ID among others
Posts: 529
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Quote:
Even if CDMA was USA-only, its a HUGE market equivalent to the whole EU, with large disposable incomes, and the majority of the population is still in the dark ages using basic phones. That's about as ripe a possible situation for Apple to exploit with the advanced -- yet easy-to-use -- iPhone. BUT, and this is important, contrary to what many people think they know, CDMA/EV-DO is actually used in MANY more countries than just the United States. Current subscriber base of 3G CDMA (CDMA2000-EVDO) in the world is 417 MILLION, including 200+ million in Asia, and 130+ million in the Americas. OBVIOUSLY, you can see the benefit of a CDMA iPhone. http://www.cdg.org/worldwide/cdma_world_subscriber.asp |
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#27 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,077
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Null.
Þ & þ are called "Thorn" & þey represent þe sound you've associated "th" wiþ since þe 13þ or 14þ century. I'm bringing it back.
<(=_=)> (>=_=)> <(=_=<) ^(=_=^) (^=_=)^ ^(=_=)^ +(=_=)+ Last edited by Slewis; 11-09-2008 at 08:21 AM.. |
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#28 | ||
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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Quote:
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Last edited by JeffDM; 04-13-2008 at 11:45 AM.. |
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#29 | |||||
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Ansible
Posts: 11,776
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That is easily confused until it's pointed out.
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Even at 1% (though it looks like that an understatement) Apple would still sell 4M. At $400 a unit, not including revenue sharing Apple grosses $1.6B. That is nothing to scoff at. Last edited by solipsism; 04-13-2008 at 12:21 PM.. |
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#30 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,105
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Quote:
There is like a billion GSM subscribers in the third world --- not really the target audience for the iphone. And the rest of the GSM subscribers are in first world Europe where prepaid is the norm --- not really the iphone business model. |
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#31 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 2
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Actually it is called EAS. Exchange Active Sync protocol. We use is exclusively after we replaced our BES servers. (Blackberry Enterprise Server)
Plain Activesync is what is used to sync pda's and cell phones with a hard cable. http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/l...EXCHG.80).aspx Requires M$ exchange 2003 with SP2 or above. |
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#32 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 95
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Before everyone predicts the dealt of BB, the iPhone has a lot of work to undergo. I like the phone but I am definitely going without features that I previously had on other smartphones. I want the iPhone to be successful and I would even move up to the 16gb over the 8 because I will add a lot of apps but I am expecting a lot more from the phone than I feel we have... We do not have to be Apple Butt Boys and can speak to the obvious things missing. Apple needs to get back to work on the phone...The job is not over. I want Apple to have strong competition so they do not take us for granted.
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#33 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 5,249
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Quote:
Apple licensed Exchange ActiveSync for syncing mobile device with a computer running MS Exchange server. |
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#34 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 2
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Doh wrong person to reply. My bad. You are correct. EAS it is.
Last edited by gold_bug; 04-16-2008 at 10:32 AM.. Reason: cuz i was tired and cant read |
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