JPMorgan: MacBook escaping industry-wide downturn

[AppleInsider]

A new investment note from JPMorgan reveals confidence that Apple's MacBook line is strong enough overcome dropping notebook sales at its rivals, but cautions that the post-holiday lull may eat into the company's iPhone and iPod numbers.

The financial firm's primary analyst for the report, Mark Moskowitz, refers to sources within the industry who suggest that Apple may be one of the few computer builders to have increased its shipments of portables from quarter to quarter.

While the overall computer market is predicted to drop by 9.2 percent between the quarters ended in December and March, the Mac maker is estimated to have grown its portable shipments by about 0.2 percent in the same three months of 2008. The gain would put Apple's combined MacBook, MacBook Air, and MacBook Pro deliveries for the latest quarter at nearly 1.37 million units.

Apple's desktop sales are expected to dip about 20 percent but is subject primarily to the same seasonal dips as other designers, according to Moskowitz.

iPhone and iPods are likely to be the real concern for investors, he says. JPMorgan is ramping down its estimates for iPhone and iPod shipments from approximately 1.6 million and 10.1 million units each in the March quarter to 1.5 million and 9.7 million units.

Aside from the expected post-holiday drop in sales, the reduced forecast stems partly from anticipation for the launch of a 3G-capable iPhone, which may encourage some prospective buyers to defer their purchases until an expected release later in the year. Moskowitz sees little to fear, as any immediate weakness in sales is likely to be recouped by strength later in 2008.

"As long as there is nothing to suggest that a summer launch of the 3G phone is not a possibility, we would expect investors to look past any near-term disappointment in iPhones," he explains."

For iPods, the analyst is worried only that the iPhone may be cannibalizing their sales. Apple is likely to have higher profit margins on both device types courtesy of steady drops in flash memory prices and recent hard disk drive discounts.

Moskowitz also cautions that even Apple's expected strong MacBook shipments are unlikely to assist the Cupertino, Calif.-based company in evading disappointing results. Although JPMorgan is raising its estimates on Apple's earnings from $1.05 to $1.09 per share, the electronics producer is still seen as falling prey to the same macro-economic factors as its challengers during the spring quarter.

"Across the tech hardware sector, we still believe that the June quarter could be the toughest in five years for investor sentiment, not to mention business fundamentals," the analyst says.

Apple has scheduled its latest quarterly results announcement for April 23rd.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[kresh]

Is this analysis trying to say that lower shipment numbers for the quarter after the Christmas holidays is unusual for the industry? It's great that Apple appears to be able to hold Christmas numbers for the 1st Qtr in 08, but come on.

A one eyed monkey could tell investors that sales are less in the Spring Qtr vs. the Winter Qtr due to gift purchasing

[NasserAE]

Moskowitz also cautions that even Apple's expected strong MacBook shipments are unlikely to assist the Cupertino, Calif.-based company in evading disappointing results

Well, thats sum his analysis. Why not let investors decide whether the results are disappointing or not?

[iPeon]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The financial firm's primary analyst for the report, Mark Moskowitz, refers to sources within the industry who suggest that Apple may be one of the few computer builders to have increased its shipments of portables from quarter to quarter.

"...who suggest that Apple may be one of the few computer builders to have increased its shipments of portables from quarter to quarter."? May have been? Is this how you analyse data Mr. Mark Moskowitz? With a may have been? You are guessing a future by "guessing" what has already happened? God help us.

[mdriftmeyer]

Apple products are a lifestyle changer.

They don't just buy one product, once they've had a bite and like it.

No other PC manufacturer can compete on the aesthetics level across their hardware offerings.

OS X makes this all possible.

[MiMiC]

For iPods, the analyst is worried only that the iPhone may be cannibalizing their sales

I bought my iPhone then a shuffle. I love both for what they are. Mostly listen to my shuffle, but sometimes my iPhone. I carry both all the time....

The only thing i wish the shuffle had was the ability to switch between multiple playlist. Say i wanted to set up 4 playlist and hit a click combo to switch between them. no screen. i just don't want to dock each time to change up.

[tundraboy]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

For iPods, the analyst is worried only that the iPhone may be cannibalizing their sales.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

This always drives me nuts. Cannibalization is one of those tire old check boxes that analysts run through whenever they prepare a report. As long as your products are differentiated, cannibalization is NOT, repeat, NOT a bad thing. If one of your products is cannibalizing another of your products that is a good thing because that means it's not your competitor who is doing it to you. When you introduce a product that fills a feature gap in your product line, there will be some cannibalization. If there isn't, then you've left a gap that your competitor can come in and fill.

[Booga]

Originally Posted by tundraboy

This always drives me nuts. Cannibalization is one of those tire old check boxes that analysts run through whenever they prepare a report. As long as your products are differentiated, cannibalization is NOT, repeat, NOT a bad thing. If one of your products is cannibalizing another of your products that is a good thing because that means it's not your competitor who is doing it to you. When you introduce a product that fills a feature gap in your product line, there will be some cannibalization. If there isn't, then you've left a gap that your competitor can come in and fill.

Yes, unless you make substantially more profit on the product that is losing sales to a much cheaper product, and your competitor doesn't have anything comparable. But it's an awfully nice position to be in when your very expensive smart phone "cannibalizes" your simple MP3 player.

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer

Apple products are a lifestyle changer.

They don't just buy one product, once they've had a bite and like it.

No other PC manufacturer can compete on the aesthetics level across their hardware offerings.

OS X makes this all possible.

I like that "once they've had a bite and like it." part... Imagine getting rid of the "I'm a Mac" guy and replacing him with some "Eve-like" woman, dressed provocatively, taking a bite out of the apple and then summons "I'm a PC" guy to take a bite, as he is cowers by a fig leaf and licking his chops because you know he wants in on that action!

Definitely a break from the standard "stand-up" routine we see today.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Booga

But it's an awfully nice position to be in when your very expensive smart phone "cannibalizes" your simple MP3 player.

I think that's the major reason that this talk of cannibalization is moot, or at least completely misstated on the part of the alleged analysts. It might be an appropriate concern if their cheaper product is taking sales away from a more expensive product, but here, no.

[SpamSandwich]

This analyst is like a child wandering in the woods... cretin.

[mdriftmeyer]

Originally Posted by Rot'nApple

I like that "once they've had a bite and like it." part... Imagine getting rid of the "I'm a Mac" guy and replacing him with some "Eve-like" woman, dressed provocatively, taking a bite out of the apple and then summons "I'm a PC" guy to take a bite, as he is cowers by a fig leaf and licking his chops because you know he wants in on that action!

Definitely a break from the standard "stand-up" routine we see today.

Yeah that is a good one and definitely works off the bite motif.

[sapporobaby]

Ohhhhh the humanity.

Time and time again these guys need to make a statement to valid their supposed value. Shaw Wu is probably one of the worst. He states the obvious, sells it as gospel, with AI and other sites buying this dribble. At the end of the day, it is what it is.

The only analyst worth having would be the guy that analyzes what these guys say, chart their hits or misses and then publishes the results. Now this would something of value.

[Lafe]

Originally Posted by sapporobaby

Ohhhhh the humanity.
He states the obvious, sells it as gospel, with AI and other sites buying this dribble. At the end of the day, it is what it is.

The only analyst worth having would be the guy that analyzes what these guys say, chart their hits or misses and then publishes the results. Now this would something of value.

I don't think AI "buys it". I think they report on it, because it's good to know what people are saying about AAPL, even if it's inaccurate guesswork.

Now I totally agree with your "tracking the so-called analysts" idea. Someone needs to jump on that!

[sapporobaby]

Originally Posted by Lafe

I don't think AI "buys it". I think they report on it, because it's good to know what people are saying about AAPL, even if it's inaccurate guesswork.

Now I totally agree with your "tracking the so-called analysts" idea. Someone needs to jump on that!

I will agree with on this. AI may not buy, but simply report it. I will withdraw that statement.

[ncee]

And when Apple surprises some, that will be great.

Like many folks, I have purchase many Apple products AFTER xmas.

a iPod nano
a iPod touch (both of these within the last few weeks)

Likely to get an iphone within the next few weeks.

Anyone ever look at ALL of the companies who give away iPod's as gift / raffles / incentives throughout the year.

Most of these folks must be trying to run the market / price down so they can get in and make a killing on Apple stock - which is headed up, and up, and up.

I can't even guess where it will go, once they open up 10 stores or more in China And let us not forget the 3G model coming out soon … and all of the new laptops / desktop units and monitors all within the next several months.

[sapporobaby]

Originally Posted by ncee

And when Apple surprises some, that will be great.

Like many folks, I have purchase many Apple products AFTER xmas.

a iPod nano
a iPod touch (both of these within the last few weeks)

Likely to get an iphone within the next few weeks.

Anyone ever look at ALL of the companies who give away iPod's as gift / raffles / incentives throughout the year.

Most of these folks must be trying to run the market / price down so they can get in and make a killing on Apple stock - which is headed up, and up, and up.

I can't even guess where it will go, once they open up 10 stores or more in China And let us not forget the 3G model coming out soon … and all of the new laptops / desktop units and monitors all within the next several months.

Your post seems to be based on a rather myopic assumption that the other manufactures will simply pack it in. There are new products on the horizon that I hope challenge Apple. Challenge is good for the consumer, and should bring out the best in a producer. To simply sit back and let Apple dictate how we should experience the Internet, Media, Entertainment, etc.... is akind to giving away the farm. In some respects I hope Apple is not as successful on some things but has to go back to the drawing board to bring a better product.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by sapporobaby

Ohhhhh the humanity.

Time and time again these guys need to make a statement to valid their supposed value. Shaw Wu is probably one of the worst. He states the obvious, sells it as gospel, with AI and other sites buying this dribble. At the end of the day, it is what it is.

The only analyst worth having would be the guy that analyzes what these guys say, chart their hits or misses and then publishes the results. Now this would something of value.

I've suggested this before also. An "analyst for the analysts". That would expose these frauds for what they are: slimy salespeople who pump expectations and try to capitalize on obvious information and trends... they don't know jack.

[palomine]

Where did I first hear the term 'anal cyst'...

Well the SEC is watching these guys. We are watching too.

I am sure there is stock manipulation going on, especially most so with Apple, the King of Gossip Stocks. Better watch out!

The way the markets are now, regulators need to take down the manipulators before they damage the world economy!

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by palomine

Where did I first hear the term 'anal cyst'...

Well the SEC is watching these guys. We are watching too.

I am sure there is stock manipulation going on, especially most so with Apple, the King of Gossip Stocks. Better watch out!

The way the markets are now, regulators need to take down the manipulators before they damage the world economy!

It would have to be more obvious than that. The SEC didn't do jack against SCO, which seemed to be pretty blatant in terms of their shenanigans.