New deals seen tripling Apple's addressable market for iPhone

[AppleInsider]

A flurry of new agreements between Apple and international wireless carriers has given American Technology Research higher conviction in the iPhone's near-term growth prospects, prompting an analyst at the firm to raise his price target on the company for the second time in as many weeks.

"Last week was busy for new carrier agreements," analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a note to clients on Monday. "Vodafone, Telecom Italia, America Movil and Roger Wireless now expect to launch iPhone later this year."

The analyst said the arrangements should more than triple Apple's wireless subscriber opportunity from about 150 million potential customers today to approximately 470 million around the time the handset maker unveils its 3G iPhone.

As a result, Wu bumped his price target on Apple shares for the second time in two weeks to $220, and also raised his forecast for cumulative iPhone shipments by the end of 2008 to 14.6 million from 11 million units.

The change reflects expectations that Apple will ship approximately 11 million iPhones in 2008, or about one million more than the company stated that it hoped to sell over the course of the year. For 2009, the analyst is now expecting the Cupertino-based firm to ship 17 million units, up from his previous estimate of 10 million.

"We continue to believe unlocked iPhones will play an important role in driving sales, but lower than the 55-60 percent contribution we estimated for the December quarter," he wrote. "We see it trending towards 25 percent over the next couple of quarters as more carriers are signed up, particularly in Asia-Pacific."

In a separate report Monday out of investment firm Piper Jaffray, analyst Gene Munster offered a slightly different interpretation of the mass carrier agreements, mainly that they signal an "imminent" release of a 3G iPhone.

"We continue to expect a 3G iPhone to be launched in mid-June. Given the channels are running dry of the current models (8GB and 16GB), the limited availability is one of several indications that the release of a new model is imminent," he wrote.

"We expect the second-generation iPhone to be slightly redesigned with 3G mobile data. Apple's Worldwide Developer's Conference on June 9th is a likely event at which Apple could announce the design and features of the new device."

Munster noted that while the limited availability of iPhones at the online Apple Store and in some retail stores puts pressure on iPhone unit expectations in the June quarter, he believes the release of a new model in June will serve to offset any loss of sales over the next few weeks.

As such, the analyst reiterated confidence in his estimate of 1.7 million iPhone shipments in the June quarter, as well as his Buy rating and $250 price target on shares of Apple.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[studiomusic]

Shaw Wu: OMG AAPL is falling!!! Sell! $175 price target...
what? AAPL is at $180?? eh, new price target... you can buy again after you lost all that money selling...
WHAT?? It's at $187??!?!?! Ok, new price target... um... $220

[SpamSandwich]

This "analyst" is like a crack-smoker. He'll try anything to get his fix.

[echosonic]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

This "analyst" is like a crack-smoker. He'll try anything to get his fix.

He's either a completely manipulating fraudulent tool or a SCANDALOUSLY incompetent moron who needs to be shut down permanently by the SEC. ASAP.

How they allow this idiot to get away with what he's doing is a mystery to me.

I have logged several complaints with SEC myself, am I the only one?

[drjjones]

Originally Posted by echosonic

He's either a completely manipulating fraudulent tool or a SCANDALOUSLY incompetent moron who needs to be shut down permanently by the SEC. ASAP.

How they allow this idiot to get away with what he's doing is a mystery to me.

I have logged several complaints with SEC myself, am I the only one?

You haven't heard of free speech ?

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by echosonic

He's either a completely manipulating fraudulent tool or a SCANDALOUSLY incompetent moron who needs to be shut down permanently by the SEC. ASAP.

How they allow this idiot to get away with what he's doing is a mystery to me.

I have logged several complaints with SEC myself, am I the only one?

Wu is an analyst. He, by law, can't and doesn't promote stock.

His boss(es) and the company's clients decide on his employment. They make money from how well his reports stack up. Right now and for some time, he has made done extremely well, and by organizations that measure such things, he sits up near the top.

Equally important, his work is well within the dictates of the SEC.

[studiomusic]

Recently though, Wu has become a FUD Packer.

[sikras]

Originally Posted by studiomusic

Shaw Wu: OMG AAPL is falling!!! Sell! $175 price target...
what? AAPL is at $180?? eh, new price target... you can buy again after you lost all that money selling...
WHAT?? It's at $187??!?!?! Ok, new price target... um... $220

LOL


Good Call. That's funny

[McHuman]

only listen to gene.

[ascii]

If Apple make a version of .Mac for the iPhone, they will be able to get subscription revenues even from people who have unlocked their phone (provided the extra features it enables are compelling enough).

Perhaps this is what they are planning, and why they are suddenly opening up the phone to so many new markets and multiple providers in some of those markets.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by studiomusic

Recently though, Wu has become a FUD Packer.

[echosonic]

Originally Posted by drjjones

You haven't heard of free speech ?

You haven't heard of "Market Manipulation?"

(It's illegal)

[mdriftmeyer]

Originally Posted by drjjones

You haven't heard of free speech ?

Free Speech is in the Public Square and it's still regulated.

In his line of work, speculation is expected, but patterned speculation is illegal.

[k2director]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The change reflects expectations that Apple will ship approximately 11 million iPhones in 2008, or about one million more than the company stated that it hoped to sell over the course of the year.

Apple never said it would sell 10 million iPhones in over the course of a year (ie, 2008). It said it would sell 10 million cumulative iPhones by the end of 2008, giving itself about 1.5 years to do so (ie, June 29 2007 to Dec 31 2008).

So if Apple ships 11 million iPhones in 2008, then you need to add that figure to its 2007 sales, and you get a number that blows away its goal of selling 10 million iPhones by Dec 31, 2008.

[Flounder]

Noooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Captain Jack]

Wu's earlier downgrade looked suss at the time, now it looks extremely suss.

All the same, he is right now, AAPL is headed over 200, still you don't have to be Einstein to see that one.

[TBaggins]

Originally Posted by k2director

Apple never said it would sell 10 million iPhones in over the course of a year (ie, 2008). It said it would sell 10 million cumulative iPhones by the end of 2008, giving itself about 1.5 years to do so (ie, June 29 2007 to Dec 31 2008).

.

[dfiler]

Funny pic, but what k2director said is not incorrect.

Apple employees (including steve) have made a few statements that have been interpreted differently by different people. The AI article interpreted it one way and stated that as fact, glossing over the other interpretation as if it didn't exist.

People seem to have a rather strong personal stake in promoting one interpretation or the other. Pretty strange really. In actuality though, the language used was quite simply, ambiguous.