Report: half of prospective smartphone buyers eying iPhone 3G

[AppleInsider]

In a sign of "unprecedented pent-up demand" for the upcoming iPhone 3G, investment bank RBC Capital Markets says its own proprietary study has revealed that more than half of consumers who are in the market for a smartphone intend to purchase one of the new Apple handsets after its launch on July 11th.

Specifically, the survey of 3,600 RBC Technology Adoption Panel members conducted shortly after Apple's annual developers conference this month indicated that 56 percent of those consumers who plan on buying a smartphone in the next 90 days have their heart set on the sleek new iPhone 3G.

That's a jump from just 35 percent of consumers who said they anticipated buying one of the new touch-screen handsets back in March when the firm conducted a similar survey before Apple had announced pricing and features. Another 25 percent indicated that they may buy an iPhone 3G "sometime in the future" -- a more than twofold increase in interest from the March study.

There's more good news for Apple. The same study showed that purchase interest in the Apple handset is two times greater than that of other brands surveyed. Consumers holding out for a BlackBerry device in the next 90 days made up 23 percent of responds, while Palm garnered interest from just 3 percent. HTC, Nokia, and Samsung each had the interest of 2 percent of respondents to the study, and Motorola just 1 percent.



Consumers routinely cited the iPhone 3G's lower price (67 percent) and faster 3G internet access (63 percent) among the top reasons they plan to choose the Apple handset. 47 percent indicated GPS was a strong selling feature as well, while 35 percent included enterprise email in the list of selling points, and 20 percent check-marked third party applications.

Overall, RBC analyst Mike Abramsky said the surge in interest is the biggest jump ahead of any consumer phone recorded by his firm's internal panel since 2003.



"Overall intentions by the panel to purchase smartphones jumped to 10.5 percent, indicating a significant expansion of the smartphone market," he wrote. "[The] iPhone's TAM (Total Addressable Market) handset share [is] expected to rise from 0.3 percent in 2007 to 1.7 percent in 2009.

The analyst, who reiterated his Outperform rating on Apple shares, said he continues to expect that the company will ship 14 million iPhones in 2008 and 24 million in 2009.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[iCarbon]

This is all well and good, but why does the stock keep tanking....

we need SJ to make a healthy looking appearance! (seriously, can't we put him in a fat suit or something?)

[Lafe]

Count me as one of the pent-up!

Why is 7/11 taking so long to get here?

[NOFEER]

voice dialing???

[oneof52]

I am curious what demand would be if the iPhone were not exclusive to ATT. Almost everyone I know in my area would have one now, but ATT service is very spotty or unavailable where we live.

I'm hoping some version of the iPhone will come to Verizon soon.

[Tantrum]

Apple has decided to be extremely low key about the release of iPhone 3G. It saves them millions of dollars in marketing but I wonder if it also has something to do with anxiety about meeting initial demand. I don't expect them to have enough 3G iPhones on hand to satisfy the Japan, Spain, Australia and Italy launch demand for more than 7 days. I also think that the US numbers may end up being softer than optimistic people expect.

[aaarrrgggh]

Originally Posted by iCarbon

This is all well and good, but why does the stock keep tanking....

we need SJ to make a healthy looking appearance! (seriously, can't we put him in a fat suit or something?)

AAPL stock is always being manipulated. Just a way of life. If you think it is a good value and are willing to hold on to it for the long-run, call it an opportunity to buy.

I think the SJ component of it is pretty low on the totem pole; it is added risk, but the biggest issue in the market is that people are engineering a recession which will reduce consumer spending. Traffic in the Apple stores looks to be down a bit, if my neighborhood store is an accurate indicator. The June quarter isn't going to be anything fantastic by the looks of it.

If SJ were to die tomorrow, the stock would likely go below $100, which would still put it at a 25% premium to HP or Dell. If you are paranoid about this, check your actuarial tables and hedge accordingly...

Me, I'm holding off on buying more shares until it dips below $160 or so.

[Lafe]

Originally Posted by Tantrum

I also think that the US numbers may end up being softer than optimistic people expect.

Any number is softer than an optimist expects it to be.

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by iCarbon

This is all well and good, but why does the stock keep tanking....

we need SJ to make a healthy looking appearance! (seriously, can't we put him in a fat suit or something?)

To answer your question, Steve Ballmer needs to be out doing his "monkey dance", clapping his hands and screaming... "SPECULATORS!, SPECULATORS!, SPECULATORS!"

[drjjones]

Apple just released 10.5.4

[Chris_CA]

Originally Posted by iCarbon

This is all well and good, but why does the stock keep tanking....

Same reason 75% of all stocks are "tanking" right now.
It has little to do with Apple as a single entity.

[TenoBell]

Originally Posted by oneof52

I'm hoping some version of the iPhone will come to Verizon soon.

Not gonna' happen anytime soon. They use two entirely different network technologies. Verizon pushes to lock customers into its VCast media network. That business model is the antithesis of the iPhone business model.

[macFanDave]

Shouldn't it be "iing" the iPhone 3G? (I was at the Apple Store yesterday and I ied an iMac.)

I think "eyeing" is the preferred spelling, although "eying" is acceptable, but it looks weird to me.

[Tantrum]

Originally Posted by Lafe

Any number is softer than an optimist expects it to be.

You're right.
I should have added that for a number of quarters, Apple has beaten even optimistic projections.

I'll concede and re-word my point: Apple's US numbers may simply meet it own conservative projections, even as it grows overseas.

[tmedia1]

People may be less than thrilled when they see the pricing of the monthly rate plans for the 3G iPhone.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Chris_CA

Same reason 75% of all stocks are "tanking" right now.
It has little to do with Apple as a single entity.

The industrial average is actually green on my widget, but every stock I'm watching is in the red, but that's because it's almost all tech stocks, tech sector was hit. According to the Google Finance Sector Summary, most sectors are up.

Apple is usually it harder than most.

Originally Posted by Tantrum

Apple has decided to be extremely low key about the release of iPhone 3G. It saves them millions of dollars in marketing but I wonder if it also has something to do with anxiety about meeting initial demand. I don't expect them to have enough 3G iPhones on hand to satisfy the Japan, Spain, Australia and Italy launch demand for more than 7 days. I also think that the US numbers may end up being softer than optimistic people expect.

I don't think Apple is any quieter than usual. They are usually just about silent on anything.

Last year, the analysts were practically one-upping each other with higher launch expectations.

[TenoBell]

Originally Posted by Tantrum

I'll concede and re-word my point: Apple's US numbers may simply meet it own conservative projections, even as it grows overseas.

Apple didnt' release any US specific numbers for 2008. So far Apple has sold the majority in the US. I wouldn't put money on sales being conservative.

[winterspan]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Not gonna' happen anytime soon. They use two entirely different network technologies. Verizon pushes to lock customers into its VCast media network. That business model is the antithesis of the iPhone business model.

Although Verizon does indeed nickel and dime you to death with their 'VCAST' media crap and they infect their cellphones with their hideous red user interface, they don't do any of that crap to the smartphones they sell. I'm sure they would readily sell the iPhone to stop defection to AT&T, and the main problem lies in AT&T exclusivity and Apple developing an CDMA iPhone.

I personally wish this would happen, but unfortunately it's probably not going to happen until Verizon and AT&T launch their next-gen LTE network. Even in that case, I'm not sure how Verizon is going to handle the outlying areas, e.g., if they are going to sell dual-mode CDMA/LTE phones or switch their existing CDMA network over to UMTS, or even just build out an entire nationwide LTE network in parallel with the existing CDMA one, and slowly transition all their customers over.

Originally Posted by tmedia1

People may be less than thrilled when they see the pricing of the monthly rate plans for the 3G iPhone.

They shouldn't be. Bottom line is that iPhone 1.0 people got a good deal since it was limited to 2G and an AT&T exclusive. Blackberry owners have been paying the normal higher rate for years even though all blackberry devices were limited to 2G as well. The iPhone 3G plans are the standard rate plans that ALL smartphones pay for voice and data access. People are just pissy because they didn't realize how high the prices have been. I'm been paying $50/month for "unlimited" aka 5GB of data from Verizon for years...

Hopefully with the enormous popularity of the iPhone (and raised awareness of other smartphones as well), consumers start adopting data plans in droves! This should eventually result in better mobile data prices as carriers start to compete on that feature.....

[samab]

Originally Posted by winterspan

I'm sure they would readily sell the iPhone to stop defection to AT&T, and the main problem lies in AT&T exclusivity and Apple developing an CDMA iPhone.

What defection?

Verizon Wireless is beating AT&T Wireless in net adds --- even after the iphone was launched.

[NasserAE]

Originally Posted by tmedia1

People may be less than thrilled when they see the pricing of the monthly rate plans for the 3G iPhone.

AT&T will be charging the 3G iPhone users the same rate they charge everyone else on their network for the data and voice plans. Blackberry Pearl 8120 cost $199.99 after mail-in rebate and uses the same plans the 3G iPhone use. What's the problem?
As some one mentioned before, AT&T offered good plans for people who bought the 2G iPhone but people didn't see it then. You want 3G speeds, you will pay for the 3G speed even if it is not in your area. That's what most people didn't understand.

[digitalclips]

Any guesses on the year RIM will fold?

[NOFEER]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

Any guesses on the year RIM will fold?

i think RIM and iPhone will carve out the market, and the nokia, sony, MS (yea baby) and the also ran "smartphones" will fight for the bottom 10% nokia knows this as does MS, it's now the battle of the "os" , interface, seemless integration with other services (moble me), how apple does to displace RIM in the enterprise, requires apple to do what is hasn't done, go after enterprise full bore, knock them dead, we will win attitude--and address their needs as they have done with consumers.

my beef is i pay for a servie (3g) that's not here and won't be for years, i live in an underserved region.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by digitalclips

Any guesses on the year RIM will fold?

Maybe never? They'll fold when large businesses and governments don't need their services, and those are the kind of customers that are slowest to abandon something they've adopted. Also keep in mind that RIM doubled in revenue, profits and stock price over the time iPhone was available for sale. No doubt that iPhone will make a big dent in that with the 2.0 software, but I doubt it's a killer blow. The market isn't as if there should only be one major player. I think multiple major players would be good for us.

[oneof52]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Not gonna' happen anytime soon. They use two entirely different network technologies. Verizon pushes to lock customers into its VCast media network. That business model is the antithesis of the iPhone business model.

I just read somewhere that the HTC is coming out with a version that will work on the Verizon network, so maybe there is some hope.

If I can still hook it up to iTunes, I can load my own songs and movies. That's all I care about.

[winterspan]

Originally Posted by samab

What defection? Verizon Wireless is beating AT&T Wireless in net adds --- even after the iphone was launched.

I'm obviously not talking about total numbers, fanboy. I'm referring to Verizon customers who switch over to AT&T to get an iPhone. The poster was saying that Verizon wouldn't seel the iPhone because they would want total control of the device, and I said that they would love to sell the iPhone, unmodified, as they do all their other smartphones in order to keep iPhone seekers from leaving their network.

Originally Posted by oneof52

I just read somewhere that the HTC is coming out with a version that will work on the Verizon network, so maybe there is some hope.
If I can still hook it up to iTunes, I can load my own songs and movies. That's all I care about.

?? We are talking solely about a CDMA version of the iPhone. HTC has had many smartphone models available from Verizon already, although they are always re-branded with a Verizon model number.

Originally Posted by digitalclips

Any guesses on the year RIM will fold?

RIM's not going to fold ANYTIME soon. "JeffDM" and others are right in that RIM has an enormous share of the corporate and government sector, and these entities on average are very conservative and slow to adopt new technology. Also, because of the way the Blackberry system works, these companies have made a *significant* investment in equipment and licensing, and they will want to see their money's worth. To overcome these factors, Apple will have to convince them that the iPhone technology and eco-system will provide them with a substantial advantage in communications, intranet connectivity, custom mobile software use, etc. I have no doubt that Apple can make a convincing argument, but they are really going to have to work hard to get these types of client. They will need a lot of hand-holding and support to get large deployments off the ground.
I also think Apple will have to create a line of iPhones, and include a model with a physical keyboard. Although I was happily surprised at how practical and functional the iPhone screen keyboard is, I guarantee many people will still insist on a traditional keyboard, especially old, stubborn executive types who have used Blackberry and Treo models for years.

[NOFEER]

Originally Posted by winterspan

I'm obviously not talking about total numbers, fanboy. I'm referring to Verizon customers who switch over to AT&T to get an iPhone. The poster was saying that Verizon wouldn't seel the iPhone because they would want total control of the device, and I said that they would love to sell the iPhone, unmodified, as they do all their other smartphones in order to keep iPhone seekers from leaving their network.




?? We are talking solely about a CDMA version of the iPhone. HTC has had many smartphone models available from Verizon already, although they are always re-branded with a Verizon model number.



RIM's not going to fold ANYTIME soon. "JeffDM" and others are right in that RIM has an enormous share of the corporate and government sector, and these entities on average are very conservative and slow to adopt new technology. Also, because of the way the Blackberry system works, these companies have made a *significant* investment in equipment and licensing, and they will want to see their money's worth. To overcome these factors, Apple will have to convince them that the iPhone technology and eco-system will provide them with a substantial advantage in communications, intranet connectivity, custom mobile software use, etc. I have no doubt that Apple can make a convincing argument, but they are really going to have to work hard to get these types of client. They will need a lot of hand-holding and support to get large deployments off the ground.
I also think Apple will have to create a line of iPhones, and include a model with a physical keyboard. Although I was happily surprised at how practical and functional the iPhone screen keyboard is, I guarantee many people will still insist on a traditional keyboard, especially old, stubborn executive types who have used Blackberry and Treo models for years.

rim is moving to the touch screen, because it's the future and apple is the target making a defensive line, the end run will be people getting the iphone anyway and IT as usual being dragged into the 20th century. they will only go when pushed.

[winterspan]

Originally Posted by NOFEER

rim is moving to the touch screen, because it's the future and apple is the target making a defensive line, the end run will be people getting the iphone anyway and IT as usual being dragged into the 20th century. they will only go when pushed.

I believe the capacitive touchscreen coupled with an intuitive finger friendly interface is the future for cellphones, yes, but I'm not sure the "virtual keyboard" will come to dominate until they create an acceptable mechanism for tactile feedback. As i said, I was surprised at just how functional the iPhone keyboard is, but I'm sure there will still be many who will just hate it and will demand a hardware QWERTY keyset. I'm sure RIM is taking the Blackberry into the touchscreen world, but I doubt they will completely abandon hardware keyboards anytime soon..