Apple warns resellers of Mac and iPod drought, says load up now

[AppleInsider]

With the first phase of the iPhone 3G launch in the rear view, Apple Inc. is now shifting much of its focus towards product refreshes targeting its two other revenue drivers and is advising resellers to be prepared for product shortages in the interim.

More specifically, the Cupertino-based company in recent days issued an advisement bulletin to some of its channel partners hinting at a manufacturing ramp down of iPods and certain Mac notebook models, which will result in limited supplies of those products in the coming weeks.

To best address this situation and assure ample supplies for new customer orders through August, Apple "strongly suggested" that resellers bring in -- or place immediate lump orders for -- approximately 4 weeks worth of their top selling iPod models. Supplies of the players would start to become extremely limited in the next seven days, the bulletin said.

Similarly, the company also advised resellers that it would be in their best interest to place at least 3 weeks worth of orders for existing Mac notebook models. In this part of the communication, Apple is said to have specifically identified 13-inch MacBooks and 15- and 17-inch MacBook Pros, but made no mention of the MacBook Air.

Based on past experiences and knowledge of their own inventory sell-through, those resellers who received the bulletin believe the notice is a strong indicator that Apple will begin introducing its holiday consumer electronics and Mac offerings sometime in early to mid-September.

Indeed, recent anecdotal evidence has suggested Apple is readying new models of both the iPod nano and the iPod touch. A report from AppleInsider earlier this week also provided an update on the company's redesigned MacBook and MacBook Pros, noting that shipments were unlikely for at least another 6 to 8 weeks.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[shanmugam]

Apple Event Coming Soon

[Xian Zhu Xuande]

Oh, boy! Here comes my new laptop!

[trevorlsciact]

Im excited its been a while since an apple event.

[bhall7]

Crap...I was getting ready to buy a MacBook 13" and get a free iPod touch as I begin my full-time MBA program. Except, I can't wait for the new models to come out because classes start Sept. 3, and I need it by then.

[wizard69]

Well nice except for already outfitting myself with a MBP & a 3G Phone this year! One of these devices would have to be very compelling to generate a buy this year from me.

By the way I really love my MBP and iPhone. Great hardware but they do need to work on the software especially the iPhone.

Frankly I'm expecting that all of the iPod line gets some sort of make over. Also really hoping for massive technology strides. It would be nice to see a Touch based device that is at least 3tikes faster and runnig on half the power. Even better would be seeing Apple realize that the iPod are not so much music players as the are minature computers.

To that end I'm hoping that they really start to flesh out Mobile OS. Things like Bluetooth and hardware ports support. It is a bit of a shame that my 3G has this really capable Bluetooth tech but limited ability to us it.

Maybe I will get lucky and have a winfall of cash come my way.



Dave

[dm3]

What about a new Mini?! Its the one in the most urgent need of an update. Are they finally going to kill it? Did the notice say anything about the Mini specifically?

[melgross]

As Apple usually likes to have 3 to 5 weeks of product in the supply line, it seems that AI's estimate of a 6 to 8 week date for new product may be a bit long.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by dm3

What about a new Mini?! Its the one in the most urgent need of an update. Are they finally going to kill it? The the notice say anything about the Mini specifically?

It didn't say anything other than portables and iPods. No desktop models were mentioned, including the hotly anticipated Nehalem Mac Pro.

And as for that, As I've been saying, there is now evidence that Nehalem is being moved up. So I'm expecting to see a new Mac Pro sooner rather than later.

http://www.tomshardware.com/news/int...ield,5968.html

[iOrlando]

Originally Posted by melgross

As Apple usually likes to have 3 to 5 weeks of product in the supply line, it seems that AI's estimate of a 6 to 8 week date for new product may be a bit long.

if apple said place 4 weeks of inventory...that is bear minimal amount of time. Apple has historically let the supply lines turn dry for a few weeks before refreshing. (Customers do not like buying laptops and ipods, only to have them refreshed a week later). By letting supplies dry up, less people will be buying these products. Also, apple will probably wait a few weeks after the ipod promotional ends before updating.

My estimate continues to be Early October.

[casper3]

Keynote presentations, the countdowns, the anticipation... WOW!
I just LOVE Apple Events!

[melgross]

Originally Posted by iOrlando

if apple said place 4 weeks of inventory...that is bear minimal amount of time. Apple has historically let the supply lines turn dry for a few weeks before refreshing. (Customers do not like buying laptops and ipods, only to have them refreshed a week later). By letting supplies dry up, less people will be buying these products. Also, apple will probably wait a few weeks after the ipod promotional ends before updating.

My estimate continues to be Early October.

Apple tries for a one week dry supply line. If they are wrong in their estimates, as they were for the iPhone last quarter before the new one came out, they have problems.

[probably]

Originally Posted by melgross

Apple tries for a one week dry supply line. If they are wrong in their estimates, as they were for the iPhone last quarter before the new one came out, they have problems.

Was it ever substantiated that the 2-month gap wasn't intended to be so unnervingly long?

From what I've read about the way they've employed deferred revenue, it seems like its sole purpose is to mask (not necessarily in a deceitful way) any drop in iPhone revenue during this transition. I have a feeling that they see their out-of-nowhere releases that worked well for keeping iPod demand strong leading up to new releases as especially frustrating when you sign a binding contract with this particular product.

[Feynman]

So if iPod Touch gets updated to 64 GB, think it's logical the iPhone will be at 16 and 32?

[PBG4 Dude]

Originally Posted by probably

Was it ever substantiated that the 2-month gap wasn't intended to be so unnervingly long?

From what I've read about the way they've employed deferred revenue, it seems like its sole purpose is to mask (not necessarily in a deceitful way) any drop in iPhone revenue during this transition. I have a feeling that they see their out-of-nowhere releases that worked well for keeping iPod demand strong leading up to new releases as especially frustrating when you sign a binding contract with this particular product.

It was specifically mentioned in Jobs' WWDC keynote. Jobs said that Apple had underestimated demand for the v1 iPhone when they stopped production.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by probably

Was it ever substantiated that the 2-month gap wasn't intended to be so unnervingly long?

From what I've read about the way they've employed deferred revenue, it seems like its sole purpose is to mask (not necessarily in a deceitful way) any drop in iPhone revenue during this transition. I have a feeling that they see their out-of-nowhere releases that worked well for keeping iPod demand strong leading up to new releases as especially frustrating when you sign a binding contract with this particular product.

No it's not. Apple is reporting much less revenue that it otherwise would have reported if they simply state sales dollars. What this does is to give a stream of revenue. While that evens out the numbers somewhat, over the long run, it doesn't. Revenue reported still reflects the ups and downs of sales. The number of phones sold is made public, so Apple isn't trying to conceal anything.

There is no way to check if what Apple said about the sales numbers shortfall is true, though there is no reason to doubt them. I've seen estimates that have Apple selling over a million phones that period rather that the 717,000 that they did sell. While many of those sales were made up with the new models, there were no doubt those who couldn't wait, and so those sales were lost. What would that number be? Who knows?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Feynman

So if iPod Touch gets updated to 64 GB, think it's logical the iPhone will be at 16 and 32?

I doubt the iTouch will go to 64GB now, and the 3G iPhone just came out, so nothing will happen there either.

[astrosmash]

As usual, expect the new stuff to come as soon as this summer's iPod/MacBook back-to-school promotion ends in September. They use these promotions to move out the old stock before the new models arrive.

[dcorban]

An updated iPod Touch 32GB with a much lower price would be good.

[nvidia2008]

Originally Posted by melgross

As Apple usually likes to have 3 to 5 weeks of product in the supply line, it seems that AI's estimate of a 6 to 8 week date for new product may be a bit long.

Originally Posted by melgross

Apple tries for a one week dry supply line. If they are wrong in their estimates, as they were for the iPhone last quarter before the new one came out, they have problems.

Yup, I'm with melgross (you're still around w00t)... Apple has notorious, ultra-conservative inventory control. Which usually means whatever new stuff comes out will be mouth-wateringly sexy and hot and... sold out quickly.

It's kind of a tactic. "Artificially?" inflate/ project demand by holding a firm, choking grip on supply. I'm not sure how I feel about it, just that Apple needs to do what it needs to do to manage the very high growth the company is experiencing.

[nips]

Tuesday Sept 16-- perhaps the 15th-- for a Macbook update. Apple seems to like Tuesdays (See the first few Tuesdays of the year) and this fits with AI's 6-8 week prediction. Also, the back to school iPod promotion ends on the 14th, so it seems likely that they would push out the remaining stock during this period and unveil the new upgrade shortly thereafter. Here's hoping.

[aaple]

Originally Posted by astrosmash

As usual, expect the new stuff to come as soon as this summer's iPod/MacBook back-to-school promotion ends in September. They use these promotions to move out the old stock before the new models arrive.

It looks like the last two Macbook refreshes in the 2nd half of the year have been in November. I hope this one comes sooner...this news sounds like it.

Do we think they will have an Apple Event separate from the usual iPod event in September (as in, sooner), or will they combine them? If it's 4-6 weeks away, it sounds like the Macbook one could come before it or at the same time, assuming the iPod one is after the BTS promo).

[teckstud]

I pity the fool who buys anything now.
Except the iPhone.

[aaple]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I pity the fool who buys anything now. Except the iPhone.

I was this close buying a Macbook or MBP in April 2008 for starting law school in the middle of August. Then I heard about the BTS promo and decided to wait until it started. Then I heard they should be updating them with in the intro of Montevina in June (possibly at WWDC) or in July. Then Montevina got delayed until July. Then Apple decided not to update them with Montevina's arrival. Now we finally hear of slowdowns in supply pointing to September, maybe October until we see updates.

Does anyone know if this sort of news is typically relatively concrete evidence of the timeframe of a refresh?

I would buy one for myself now as the date keeps moving back...except that the rumors about how much is changing in the new models keep getting juicier. Apple really knows how to string along people who listen to rumors (like me!).

I think I will make do with my 4 year old Dell Inspiron 8600 that is still chugging along until they come out with the new models. I hope they come out before September 15th so I can get a newly designed Macbook and still take advantage of the BTS subsidized iPod Touch (I'll pay $200 for a 32GB model, and I don't mind not getting the latest and greatest Touch, as it's a much smaller investment).

If they don't, though, I think I'll still wait for them, as the redesign keeps sounding more and more significant. Hopefully they come sooner rather than later, though!

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by aaple

I was this close buying a Macbook or MBP in April 2008 for starting law school in the middle of August. Then I heard about the BTS promo and decided to wait until it started. Then I heard they should be updating them with in the intro of Montevina in June (possibly at WWDC) or in July. Then Montevina got delayed until July. Then Apple decided not to update them with Montevina's arrival. Now we finally hear of slowdowns in supply pointing to September, maybe October until we see updates.

Does anyone know if this sort of news is typically relatively concrete evidence of the timeframe of a refresh?

I would buy one for myself now as the date keeps moving back...except that the rumors about how much is changing in the new models keep getting juicier. Apple really knows how to string along people who listen to rumors (like me!).

I think I will make do with my 4 year old Dell Inspiron 8600 that is still chugging along until they come out with the new models. I hope they come out before September 15th so I can get a newly designed Macbook and still take advantage of the BTS subsidized iPod Touch (I'll pay $200 for a 32GB model, and I don't mind not getting the latest and greatest Touch, as it's a much smaller investment).

If they don't, though, I think I'll still wait for them, as the redesign keeps sounding more and more significant. Hopefully they come sooner rather than later, though!

iPods usually always late Sept/ early Oct to gear up for Holiday sales penetration.
Macs are long overdue so I would say again Sept/Oct.
The problem is everyone who buys now comes on here and whines perpetually after these updates and after being forwarned.
I would definitely wait for the new Touch and that should major upgared- 2G usually does.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by aaple

I was this close buying a Macbook or MBP in April 2008 for starting law school in the middle of August. Then I heard about the BTS promo and decided to wait until it started. Then I heard they should be updating them with in the intro of Montevina in June (possibly at WWDC) or in July. Then Montevina got delayed until July. Then Apple decided not to update them with Montevina's arrival. Now we finally hear of slowdowns in supply pointing to September, maybe October until we see updates.

Does anyone know if this sort of news is typically relatively concrete evidence of the timeframe of a refresh?

I would buy one for myself now as the date keeps moving back...except that the rumors about how much is changing in the new models keep getting juicier. Apple really knows how to string along people who listen to rumors (like me!).

I think I will make do with my 4 year old Dell Inspiron 8600 that is still chugging along until they come out with the new models. I hope they come out before September 15th so I can get a newly designed Macbook and still take advantage of the BTS subsidized iPod Touch (I'll pay $200 for a 32GB model, and I don't mind not getting the latest and greatest Touch, as it's a much smaller investment).

If they don't, though, I think I'll still wait for them, as the redesign keeps sounding more and more significant. Hopefully they come sooner rather than later, though!

iPods usually always late Sept/ early Oct to gear up for Holiday sales penetration.
Macs are long overdue so I would say again Sept/Oct.
The problem is everyone who buys now comes on here and whines perpetually after these updates and after being forewarned.
I would definitely wait for the new Touch as that should major upgrade- 2G usually is.

[eAi]

I'd say the iPod update will be early September, not mid-September:

2007: Wednesday September 5th
2006: Tuesday September 12th
2005: Wednesday September 7th

So, I'm going for Tuesday September 9th for the update.

I'd say Mac updates will come at the same time... We'll see though. Apple have been known to have two events pretty close together (weeks), but I think they may want to announce them both at once. Of course, the downside is that the iPods will likely overshadow the macs in the press...

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by eAi

I'd say the iPod update will be early September, not mid-September:

2007: Wednesday September 5th
2006: Tuesday September 12th
2005: Wednesday September 7th

So, I'm going for Tuesday September 9th for the update.

I'd say Mac updates will come at the same time... We'll see though. Apple have been known to have two events pretty close together (weeks), but I think they may want to announce them both at once. Of course, the downside is that the iPods will likely overshadow the macs in the press...

5th generation was released October 12, 2005

[Machead99]

October is pretty late, would they really release it after everyone has already left for college? Wouldn't mid-Sept be more or less the only sensible time to introduce new laptops?

[Felix01]

I'll be ordering a new MacBook Pro on Day One of release. Hope it's worth the wait (four months since the "new laptop" bug bit me).

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Felix01

I'll be ordering a new MacBook Pro on Day One of release. Hope it's worth the wait (four months since the "new laptop" bug bit me).

Patience is a virtue while whining is not. It will def be worth the wait- always is.

[Clive At Five]

WTF? Only Apple could con retailers into loading up on soon-to-be-obsolete tech...

The RDF is true!

(The cake, however, is a lie...)

-Clive

[thejohnsonfactor]

So the promotion for a free iPod Touch with computer purchase ends September 15th and surprise surprise there is an event scheduled September 25-26th (Apple Expo Paris). Conveniently it is 10 days after the end of the promotion, so when they inevitably announce a new line of iPods no one can come back to the store and demand one in exchange for the one they got for free. Amazing how these things work. Not that I am not excited for the announcement.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by thejohnsonfactor

So the promotion for a free iPod Touch with computer purchase ends September 15th and surprise surprise there is an event scheduled September 25-26th (Apple Expo Paris). Conveniently it is 10 days after the end of the promotion, so when they inevitably announce a new line of iPods no one can come back to the store and demand one in exchange for the one they got for free. Amazing how these things work. Not that I am not excited for the announcement.

You forgot that they will also whine on here incessantly as well on how they've been burned meanwhile they've received a freebie.

[AHeneen]

Originally Posted by thejohnsonfactor

So the promotion for a free iPod Touch with computer purchase ends September 15th and surprise surprise there is an event scheduled September 25-26th (Apple Expo Paris). Conveniently it is 10 days after the end of the promotion, so when they inevitably announce a new line of iPods no one can come back to the store and demand one in exchange for the one they got for free. Amazing how these things work. Not that I am not excited for the announcement.

Last year, the iPod Touch was announced September 9th...six days before the end of the BTS promotion. Also, the BTS promotion lists the certain iPod product codes for which the promotion is valid. Even if Apple released the new iPods the day after the BTS promotion ends, you could not take it back and exchange it for another one beacuse: 1)the product code of the new iPod would not be eligible for the promotion and 2)the iPod and Mac must be purchased on the same receipt dated on/before September 15.

[thejohnsonfactor]

oops, looks like I mixed up last years dates with this years (Spetember 17th-20th) and it looks as though Apple will not even be at the event.

[mwickens]

Advisement bulletin? Is that Apple's term? Not one that corresponds with any definition of advisement I'm aware of. Perhaps they mean "advisory."

[meelash]

Just a warning to anyone in the education market looking to score a new iPod Touch. You might as well go ahead and order now. Even if the new Touch is released a week or two before the end of the free iPod offer, it will almost definitely not qualify.

This happened to me two years ago when I bought a new iMac (core2Duo model) after apple released new iMacs and iPods at the beginning of September. The new iMac did not qualify even though the online store was not selling the older models anymore. I was told that to get the rebate, I would have to buy one of the older models from stock at a physical location.

This year, I'm thinking of buying early and selling the iPod Touch before the new model is released and the price drops. I'll probably wait a little while though, just to be sure.

[iVlad]

Yes. Apple is on a tight schedule year after year. More products = more announcements.

For the first time the iPod Classic will not be refresh (or maybe it will), because why go higher than 80GB of 160GB. Can't imagine classic with 160GB and 250GB drives. INSANE!

I don't think iPod Touch will go 64GB yet. Flash mem is still not as cheap as Apple want it to be, so probably cheaper 16GB, 32Gb and no 8GB.

New iPod nano with amazing new features. =)

I can't imagine having Notebooks and iPod releases in one day though. At least a week after another, but then one event has to be online.

But Macbooks are definitely will have a major change. Can't wait. I hope bigger hard drives. Macbook with 250Gb and 320Gb and Macbook Pro's with 320Gb and 500Gb and some crazy new features.

[DHagan4755]

September? God Apple's fucking slow...