Apple already building iPhones at rate of 40 million a year?

[AppleInsider]

Apple is reportedly testing the limits of its overseas manufacturing facilities in order to keep up with demand for the new iPhone 3G, with production already cranked nearly sevenfold compared to the first-generation model.

Foxconn, the company's Taiwanese handset and iPod manufacturer, has recently ramped production of the new iPhone to 800,000 units per week, says TechCrunch, citing a person "close to Apple with direct knowledge of the numbers."

The build rate is said to be "above current full capacity" for the Foxconn facilities alloted to Apple's handset business, which has led to concerns that quality control may suffer. At the current rate, Apple stands to produce more than 40 million iPhone 3Gs over the course of twelve months.

That paces well ahead of analysts' estimates (1, 2, 3) and early reports that suggested Apple's initial iPhone 3G orders spanned only 25 million units through the expected lifespan of the product.

TechCrunch believes Apple's initial order was actually 40 million units over the course of the first twelve months, but is now hearing that "those numbers are being revised upwards sharply."

Apple said it sold 1 million iPhones in the first 72 hours the new iPhone 3G was put on sale, but has not provided an updated sales tally since. The iPhone is currently on sale in 23 countries, with 20 more expected to be added on August 22nd, and another 30 by the end of the calendar year.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[MacCentric]

Apple stock at this level of around $155 is such a great buying opportunity, it's incredible. I am pretty sure that we will be over $200 by the end of the year. Over 30% profit growth, incredible new products, new revenue streams, $21 Billion in cash, no debt makes this a company I love owning. The iPhone sales are going to take Wall Street by total surprise. This may well be the last opportunity to get in at this level.

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The build rate is said to be "above current full capacity" for the Foxconn facilities alloted to Apple's handset business, which has led to concerns that quality control may suffer. At the current rate, Apple stands to produce more than 40 million iPhone 3Gs over the course of twelve months.

Was it not a couple of years back when there were "sweatshop" allegations of Foxconn and the manufacturing of iPods? The heck with 'QC' if the manufacturer is said to be "above current fill capacity", what about the employees?! Will this be "Sweatshop, the Sequel". If Apple meant what it said, when it said, "Apple is committed to ensuring that working conditions in our supply chain are safe, workers are treated with respect and dignity, and manufacturing processes are environmentally responsible,” then maybe Apple should pay a surprise inspection every now and then for the welfare of the supply chain's employees...

[merdhead]

Where did Apple go wrong with their forecasting? Or maybe they've just discounted the mainstream for so long that when they join it (subsidised phones, latest technology) it puts all their models out of whack.

And it's definitely bad. Apple should be taking advantage of the positive environment for their phone to build momentum, which they need against the companies that compete with them. People who might have switched from some other product but couldn't buy may be lost forever.

It would be great if Apple sold 100 million phones next year, but they may have done themselves in with their strange pessimism.

[serpicolugnut]

Apple is very conservative with their forecasting. They cited several real issues that could affect their results, like the US economy. During a Presidential election quarter, where the press is going to be hammering the economy to make the situation more favorable to the democrat, this is advisable.

If Apple had crossed the 5 million sold line with the iPhone3G, I'm sure we'd have heard about it by now. They were very quick to tout the 1 million sold the first weekend, I'm sure they'd want to broadcast the next milestone as well.

Originally Posted by merdhead

Where did Apple go wrong with their forecasting? Or maybe they've just discounted the mainstream for so long that when they join it (subsidised phones, latest technology) it puts all their models out of whack.

And it's definitely bad. Apple should be taking advantage of the positive environment for their phone to build momentum, which they need against the companies that compete with them. People who might have switched from some other product but couldn't buy may be lost forever.

It would be great if Apple sold 100 million phones next year, but they may have done themselves in with their strange pessimism.

[Isomorphic]

All of this forecasting must be based mostly on international sales, because the United States market is mostly a zero-sum game.

I guess I'm wrong. I find it amazing that that many people are willing to undertake the onerous contractual and provider obligations "buying*" an iPhone implies, especially in the current economy.

(*It's not ever really your phone, since you can't install your own software on it, or use it with any GSM provider. It's Apple's or AT&T's phone--you're merely leasing it.)

[Thomaspin]

Apple's disastrous planning will simply ramp their increasingly poor quality control issues, abundantly visible on their own discussion forum, to the iPhone.

Just stand in line at the Genius Bar for yet another repair, as I have many times (2 Airport Extremes, two MacBooks, two Airport Expresses, one wireless keyboard, a constantly disappearing Apple TV and wireless router in the Airport Utility) in the past 12 months, and listen to the litany of like issues from your fellow customers in the queue. Then read the discussion boards. These are not isolated incidents.

QC issues? Can you say Leopard? Apple TV? Apple Airport Extreme? iPhone 2.0 software? Just about any wireless product they make? Not one of these was ready for prime time when released, as Apple migrated to the MSFT model of "let the customer do the debugging for us".

Trust and brand equity take years to build and months to destroy, and Apple seems unaware of the fact that trust, once lost, is seldom regained.

No company's stock trading at over 30 times future earnings, making consumer discretionary products which no one needs when the alternative is putting bread on the table while the world heads for a depression, is remotely a buying opportunity.

While the Reality Distortion Field can support the stock with hype when times are good, it has yet to be proved as a workable model in a depression - something neither Apple or any of its customers have experienced.

Add a star CEO, with no visible succession planning, who's health issues have been amateurishly obfuscated by the marketing department, and you have a stock trading at under $100 twelve months hence.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

...... while the world heads for a depression.....

Really.... that's a pretty strong forecast!

On what basis do you say that?

[fraklinc]

Apple is growing fast, they already sitting on $20.8 billion in cash, not to mention microsoft is only holding $23.8 billion

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...mpaign_id=yhoo

[Leehblanc]

Originally Posted by merdhead

Where did Apple go wrong with their forecasting? Or maybe they've just discounted the mainstream for so long that when they join it (subsidised phones, latest technology) it puts all their models out of whack.

And it's definitely bad. Apple should be taking advantage of the positive environment for their phone to build momentum, which they need against the companies that compete with them. People who might have switched from some other product but couldn't buy may be lost forever.

It would be great if Apple sold 100 million phones next year, but they may have done themselves in with their strange pessimism.

I agree that they have most likely lost sales due to the interruption in the supply chain, but I also think they can stem the losses with a quick supply chain refill. If this short supply carries into September or October, then I think it spells trouble

[satchmo]

Originally Posted by MacCentric

Apple stock at this level of around $155 is such a great buying opportunity, it's incredible. I am pretty sure that we will be over $200 by the end of the year. Over 30% profit growth, incredible new products, new revenue streams, $21 Billion in cash, no debt makes this a company I love owning. The iPhone sales are going to take Wall Street by total surprise. This may well be the last opportunity to get in at this level.

We've heard this all before...yet the stock continues to get punished because of conservative estimates.
Wall Street is a crap shoot at best. Personally I'd love to see APPL at $200+ but I'd be surprised if it ended at $180 by year's end, given the state of the economy.

[nagromme]

Originally Posted by Rot'nApple

If Apple meant what it said, when it said, "Apple is committed to ensuring that working conditions in our supply chain are safe, workers are treated with respect and dignity, and manufacturing processes are environmentally responsible,” then maybe Apple should pay a surprise inspection every now and then for the welfare of the supply chain's employees...

What makes you think they're not doing that?

[Thomaspin]

30%-40% off when Jobs retires (or worse, God forbid) to his new yacht. Google for the story.

Then again, why should any investor believe a company which tries to spin the state of its CEO's health? A minor bug became intestinal surgery. Healthy skepticism is the order of the day. And while no one cares who the CEO of GM is, Jobs is key to Apple and, accordingly, his continued involvement is a significant component of the stock's price.

Flat on the rest of the business as the AAPL mouse works the treadmill of growth, running faster and faster to meet unrealistic earnings expectations.

The cash has a negligible and dilutive yield representing a drag on earnings and should be dividended back to shareholders in much the same way MSFT was forced to do a few years ago. Keeping that level of unneeded reserves is hard to understand. Operating cash flow is more than adequate to dictate this action. $5bn is all they need to service all those costly prime high street retail store leases and to fund corporate layoffs over the coming global economic depression.

Any acquisition big enough to need that sort of cash will be both dilutive and subject to extreme anti-trust scrutiny from socialist governments, whether in the US, EU or points east.

Further, AAPL has failed repeatedly to materially expand its customer base to corporate consumers who have a far longer buying and investing horizon. It's a retail company operating in the worst retail environment since 1929. Corporations can afford to invest for the next boom. Bankrupt retail consumers cannot.

Disclosure: No AAPL position.

[GQB]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

30%-40% off when Jobs retires (or worse, God forbid) to his new yacht. Google for the story.

Then again, why should any investor believe a company which tries to spin the state of its CEO's health? A minor bug became intestinal surgery. Healthy skepticism is the order of the day. And while no one cares who the CEO of GM is, Jobs is key to Apple and, accordingly, his continued involvement is a significant component of the stock's price.

Flat on the rest of the business as the AAPL mouse works the treadmill of growth, running faster and faster to meet unrealistic earnings expectations.

The cash has a negligible and dilutive yield representing a drag on earnings and should be dividended back to shareholders in much the same way MSFT was forced to do a few years ago. Keeping that level of unneeded reserves is hard to understand. Operating cash flow is more than adequate to dictate this action. $5bn is all they need to service all those costly prime high street retail store leases and to fund corporate layoffs over the coming global economic depression.

Any acquisition big enough to need that sort of cash will be both dilutive and subject to extreme anti-trust scrutiny from socialist governments, whether in the US, EU or points east.

Further, AAPL has failed repeatedly to materially expand its customer base to corporate consumers who have a far longer buying and investing horizon. It's a retail company operating in the worst retail environment since 1929. Corporations can afford to invest for the next boom. Bankrupt retail consumers cannot.

Disclosure: No AAPL position.

Sorry, but I have to call 'troll'.
Combine the 'apple is an incompetent, messiah-drive fluke' with your previous list of more visits to the Apple Genius Bar then the combined total of everyone I know or have heard of in my entire (large) Mac circle, and I smell some other agenda.

FWIW.

[Rot'nApple]

Originally Posted by nagromme

What makes you think they're not doing that?

Nothing make me think that Apple isn't doing that. For their sake, I hope they are so they can avoid bad PR. However, with that said, how many times have corporations paid lip service to righting wrongs only to have conditions creep back to status quo?

And forget corporations, how about governments? Wasn't it just some 30 years ago when this country had an energy crisis and not enough oil and we were told to lower thermostats and wear sweaters... Fast forward thirty years and neither political party had a energy vision or goal that was worth a damn and now we find ourselves again that oil supply is not meeting demand and we are told to "inflate our car tires"?! Deja Vu anyone...

[Xian Zhu Xuande]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

Just stand in line at the Genius Bar for yet another repair, as I have many times (2 Airport Extremes, two MacBooks, two Airport Expresses, one wireless keyboard, a constantly disappearing Apple TV and wireless router in the Airport Utility) in the past 12 months, and listen to the litany of like issues from your fellow customers in the queue. Then read the discussion boards. These are not isolated incidents.

Let's see, here... it is the responsibility of an Apple Genius to help people who are having problems or need help with their Apple products. People don't schedule an appointment with them to thank them for all the hard work they do, or to talk about Steve Jobs' excellent taste in turtle neck sweaters. Apple staffs enough Apple Geniuses to service the flow of customers into the store, and Apple has a massive number of customers and products out there. As such, especially at this time, the Apple Genius will be helping customers with problems all day long.

What did you expect to hear while you were waiting in that line?

And how on earth is that a representation of anything?

As for the internet, people love to complain when they are having a problem. They don't say much when they are happy. People are thrilled to post about issues, and actively search for solutions, when something is troubling them. Precious few even bother with a review when things are working great. What did you expect from the internet?

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by MacCentric

Apple stock at this level of around $155 is such a great buying opportunity, it's incredible. I am pretty sure that we will be over $200 by the end of the year. Over 30% profit growth, incredible new products, new revenue streams, $21 Billion in cash, no debt makes this a company I love owning. The iPhone sales are going to take Wall Street by total surprise. This may well be the last opportunity to get in at this level.

What makes you think 30% profit growth justifies that kind of stock price increase? 30% is pretty slow given Apple's high valuation, even after this decline. They need to grow faster than that if you want $200 per share.

[physguy]

Originally Posted by Xian Zhu Xuande

Let's see, here... it is the responsibility of an Apple Genius to help people who are having problems or need help with their Apple products. People don't schedule an appointment with them to thank them for all the hard work they do, or to talk about Steve Jobs' excellent taste in turtle neck sweaters. Apple staffs enough Apple Geniuses to service the flow of customers into the store, and Apple has a massive number of customers and products out there. As such, especially at this time, the Apple Genius will be helping customers with problems all day long.

What did you expect to hear while you were waiting in that line?

And how on earth is that a representation of anything?

As for the internet, people love to complain when they are having a problem. They don't say much when they are happy. People are thrilled to post about issues, and actively search for solutions, when something is troubling them. Precious few even bother with a review when things are working great. What did you expect from the internet?

Very well said, thanks!!! Deriving general conclusions from highly biased (problem postings, surveys at problem reporting locations (genius bar)) data seems to be the norm around here.

[Foo2]

Originally Posted by serpicolugnut

If Apple had crossed the 5 million sold line with the iPhone3G, I'm sure we'd have heard about it by now.

I expect the next milestone Apple touts will be the 10 million sold goal they had set for all of 2008. If sales to the service providers significantly outpace the rumored production rate, this goal could be reached sooner than the 74-day mark (Sept. 22 for the iPhone 3G) when the original iPhone had sold only its first million.

[bwik]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

30%-40% off when Jobs retires (or worse, God forbid) to his new yacht. Google for the story.

Further, AAPL has failed repeatedly to materially expand its customer base to corporate consumers who have a far longer buying and investing horizon. It's a retail company operating in the worst retail environment since 1929. Corporations can afford to invest for the next boom. Bankrupt retail consumers cannot.

Disclosure: No AAPL position.

"Has failed???"

This is precisely why AAPL is a buying opportunity, and MSFT is not. AAPL has not yet conquered the world, while MSFT has (in the past). TO state the obvious, if AAPL had already conquered the world, they would not be a growth stock anymore.

The enterprise statistics (and prospects) are nothing if not hugely promising!

The worst retail environment since 1929? Surely you jest. Ever been to China? Japan? New York? Didn't think so. The world, today, is wealthier than it has ever been. Crucially, the cell phone market (high end cell phone) is stronger and bigger than ever before, projected to hit 1 billion units, at perhaps $100 to $200 each. I guess we could all go in our hidey-hole, pretending 2008 is so terrible. Personally, I am amazed at the entire world's near-infinite wealth in this year 2008. Money is shooting out of ever pore of this planet, as we look forward to even better times ahead.

So, I think you're trying to bad-mouth the world's most prosperous moment ever. Interesting.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Rot'nApple

Was it not a couple of years back when there were "sweatshop" allegations of Foxconn and the manufacturing of iPods? The heck with 'QC' if the manufacturer is said to be "above current fill capacity", what about the employees?! Will this be "Sweatshop, the Sequel". If Apple meant what it said, when it said, "Apple is committed to ensuring that working conditions in our supply chain are safe, workers are treated with respect and dignity, and manufacturing processes are environmentally responsible,” then maybe Apple should pay a surprise inspection every now and then for the welfare of the supply chain's employees...

This has nothing to do with "sweatshop conditions". These are highly automated production lines.

When they say that production is over "full" capacity what that means is that the production lines are not being given their normal downcycle for maintenance and QC checks. It has nothing to do with the workers themselves.

At some point, extra lines have to be assembled. Whether they have enough capacity in a plant for those extra lines is the question.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

30%-40% off when Jobs retires (or worse, God forbid) to his new yacht. Google for the story.

Then again, why should any investor believe a company which tries to spin the state of its CEO's health? A minor bug became intestinal surgery. Healthy skepticism is the order of the day. And while no one cares who the CEO of GM is, Jobs is key to Apple and, accordingly, his continued involvement is a significant component of the stock's price.

Flat on the rest of the business as the AAPL mouse works the treadmill of growth, running faster and faster to meet unrealistic earnings expectations.

The cash has a negligible and dilutive yield representing a drag on earnings and should be dividended back to shareholders in much the same way MSFT was forced to do a few years ago. Keeping that level of unneeded reserves is hard to understand. Operating cash flow is more than adequate to dictate this action. $5bn is all they need to service all those costly prime high street retail store leases and to fund corporate layoffs over the coming global economic depression.

Any acquisition big enough to need that sort of cash will be both dilutive and subject to extreme anti-trust scrutiny from socialist governments, whether in the US, EU or points east.

Further, AAPL has failed repeatedly to materially expand its customer base to corporate consumers who have a far longer buying and investing horizon. It's a retail company operating in the worst retail environment since 1929. Corporations can afford to invest for the next boom. Bankrupt retail consumers cannot.

Disclosure: No AAPL position.

You're blowing too hard. Take a minute off to catch your breath.

We've heard all this before.

Nothing you've said so far is anything more than overblown projections on your part.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by cameronj

What makes you think 30% profit growth justifies that kind of stock price increase? 30% is pretty slow given Apple's high valuation, even after this decline. They need to grow faster than that if you want $200 per share.

A 30% profit increase, alloyed with a growth curve like Apple's could very well result in a 30% increase in stock price.

The main reason why Apple is down where it is, is because of the economy as a whole. If it weren't for that, the stock would likely be above $200 now, possibly more than a bit higher.

Remember that a P/E of 30 is low for Apple, which usually is closer to 40, or sometimes even higher.

[Foo2]

Originally Posted by melgross

This has nothing to do with "sweatshop conditions". These are highly automated production lines.

Automated to what degree? There's a tremendous amount of detailed, manual labor that goes into the manufacture of an iPhone.

When they say that production is over "full" capacity what that means is that the production lines are not being given their normal downcycle for maintenance and QC checks. It has nothing to do with the workers themselves.

How do you know that?

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

30%-40% off when Jobs retires (or worse, God forbid) to his new yacht. Google for the story.
......
Flat on the rest of the business as the AAPL mouse works the treadmill of growth, running faster and faster to meet unrealistic earnings expectations.

The cash has a negligible and dilutive yield representing a drag on earnings a....

......dividended back to shareholders in much the same way MSFT was forced to do a few years ago.

Any acquisition big enough to need that sort of cash will be both dilutive and subject to extreme anti-trust scrutiny from socialist governments, whether in the US, EU or points east.

......It's a retail company operating in the worst retail environment since 1929. ......

Your points are almost entirely b-s. Let me call you on a few:

1) Googling ≠ price forecast.

2) Flat on the rest of the business? Go look up/listen to their recent quarterly report/conf call.

3) You don't know the first thing about business valuation. Cash is simply worth cash. It is the growth opportunites in the non-cash part of the business that are being valued in the market. Any half-baked analyst knows to keep cash aside when valuing AAPL (or anybody else).

4) Yeah, and perceptions about MSFT being a growth stock turned on a dime, with the stock essentially going sideways since their dividend initiation.

5) You know little about acquisitions either. Apart from the fact that dilutive/accretive is an arcane and fairly useless concept, there are many (much larger) acquisitions that have been accretive. A case in point will be Inbev's $55B (all cash) acquisition of Anheuser Busch. Also, there are no antitrust issues there other than for proforma HSR-type reviews required by the law.

6) Worst retail environment since 1929?! Wow, surely, you understate.

[johnqh]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

Apple's disastrous planning will simply ramp their increasingly poor quality control issues, abundantly visible on their own discussion forum, to the iPhone.

Just stand in line at the Genius Bar for yet another repair, as I have many times (2 Airport Extremes, two MacBooks, two Airport Expresses, one wireless keyboard, a constantly disappearing Apple TV and wireless router in the Airport Utility) in the past 12 months, and listen to the litany of like issues from your fellow customers in the queue. Then read the discussion boards. These are not isolated incidents.

If someone is having so much problems continue to buy Apple products, I would say that's an indicator Apple will only gain market share.

Why? because by simply improve the quality (with .0.1 or 0.2 releases), it will gain customers who would be otherwise turned off (unlike Thomaspin).

On ther other hand, if a product doesn't have much problems, and people are frustrated at it (like Vista), that would indicate design problems. That cannot be fixed by bug fix releases (or service packs, as MS likes to call it).

Finally, I have been using Vista for the last two weeks. I cannot tell you how irritated I was by the design, from the annoying warning dialog everytime I want to do something, to the way MS makes everything look nicer but takes more mouse clicks in Explorer....I won't call any of them bugs, but they make me rather use XP (or even use System 7).

[guinness]

I know most products are made in China anymore, but I hope Apple ramps up QC procedures to go along with increased production.

[Feynman]

Originally Posted by fraklinc

Apple is growing fast, they already sitting on $20.8 billion in cash, not to mention microsoft is only holding $23.8 billion

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...mpaign_id=yhoo

So in theory, in a few years Apple could buy Microsoft, return the cash to their shareholders and run the world

[AjitMD]

I hope that is report regarding the ramp-up to rate of 40M/year iPhones is not true. For a hi end company like Apple is important to maintain quality.

As it stands, there are some doubts about the integrity of the case that may cause the case to crack. All these issues need to be addressed. Also, too fast production cause ruin the quality of the supply chain. These are not Croc shoes.

Damaged reputation is difficult to fix... look how long it is taking to fix MobileMe.

[elroth]

Originally Posted by serpicolugnut

During a Presidential election quarter, where the press is going to be hammering the economy to make the situation more favorable to the democrat, this is advisable.

So true - NOT. What kind of a moron actually believes this? The kind that believes that tax cuts for the very richest people somehow help the middle class, and that giving large subsidies to the oil companies is the free market at work.

I guess by your reasoning the economy is in great shape, and if the media would just stop talking about it, everything would be fine.

And oh yeah, two-thirds of U.S. newspapers endorsed Bush in the last two elections.

[Fast Fred 1]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

Apple's disastrous planning will simply ramp their increasingly poor quality control issues, abundantly visible on their own discussion forum, to the iPhone.

Just stand in line at the Genius Bar for yet another repair, as I have many times (2 Airport Extremes, two MacBooks, two Airport Expresses, one wireless keyboard, a constantly disappearing Apple TV and wireless router in the Airport Utility) in the past 12 months, and listen to the litany of like issues from your fellow customers in the queue. Then read the discussion boards. These are not isolated incidents.

QC issues? Can you say Leopard? Apple TV? Apple Airport Extreme? iPhone 2.0 software? Just about any wireless product they make? Not one of these was ready for prime time when released, as Apple migrated to the MSFT model of "let the customer do the debugging for us".

Trust and brand equity take years to build and months to destroy, and Apple seems unaware of the fact that trust, once lost, is seldom regained.

No company's stock trading at over 30 times future earnings, making consumer discretionary products which no one needs when the alternative is putting bread on the table while the world heads for a depression, is remotely a buying opportunity.

While the Reality Distortion Field can support the stock with hype when times are good, it has yet to be proved as a workable model in a depression - something neither Apple or any of its customers have experienced.

Add a star CEO, with no visible succession planning, who's health issues have been amateurishly obfuscated by the marketing department, and you have a stock trading at under $100 twelve months hence.

Wow , you sure have a lot of absolutes.

[Fast Fred 1]

Originally Posted by guinness

I know most products are made in China anymore, but I hope Apple ramps up QC procedures to go along with increased production.

Naw....China has everything made in India and has them stamped "Made In China"

[pk22901]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

Apple's disastrous planning will simply ramp their increasingly poor quality control issues, abundantly visible on their own discussion forum, to the iPhone.

Just stand in line at the Genius Bar for yet another repair, as I have many times (2 Airport Extremes, two MacBooks, two Airport Expresses, one wireless keyboard, a constantly disappearing Apple TV and wireless router in the Airport Utility) in the past 12 months, and listen to the litany of like issues from your fellow customers in the queue. Then read the discussion boards. These are not isolated incidents.

QC issues? Can you say Leopard? Apple TV? Apple Airport Extreme? iPhone 2.0 software? Just about any wireless product they make? Not one of these was ready for prime time when released, as Apple migrated to the MSFT model of "let the customer do the debugging for us".

Trust and brand equity take years to build and months to destroy, and Apple seems unaware of the fact that trust, once lost, is seldom regained.

No company's stock trading at over 30 times future earnings, making consumer discretionary products which no one needs when the alternative is putting bread on the table while the world heads for a depression, is remotely a buying opportunity.

While the Reality Distortion Field can support the stock with hype when times are good, it has yet to be proved as a workable model in a depression - something neither Apple or any of its customers have experienced.

Add a star CEO, with no visible succession planning, who's health issues have been amateurishly obfuscated by the marketing department, and you have a stock trading at under $100 twelve months hence.

Whoa Mr Thomas, you're having a hard day. I guess you missed the <several> national quality and support polls which show Apple leading the way at 80% + satisfaction levels.

BTW, maybe you can do some excellent research and tell us who was Number 2 and what their % was. We'd appreciate your astute observations on this matter.

[NDPTAL85]

These forums could really benefit from some moderators who keep the discussion from getting so wildly off track as it does with so many stories posted.

References to the 70's energy crisis?
Steve Job's health?
The value of the stock?

The story is about 800,000 iPhones being stamped out a week. Sometimes its like a game of telephone in here where you start off saying 'The Dog is in the Yard' and when it comes back to you the phrase has become 'The Frog is eating Lard'.

[physguy]

Is anyone here aware of any concrete quantitative information on so-called 'quality disaster'? By that I mean real percentages? Take the following as an apocryphal example with plausible but made-up numbers.

Assume

phones sold = 2,000,000

white phone (16GB) = 20% => 400,000 white phone sold

Posters posting about cracks => 1,000 (a huge number IMO, remember I'm saying actual posters)

-> 0.25% failure rate quite good overall

Given that a problem phone prompts someone to post whereas a working phone does not and given the apparently huge number of phones that are apparently selling it is not surprising to see 'a lot' of problems posted. This is the bias of the internet in this regard.

So, again I ask, any hard number? Other wise at this point we don't know if Apple has any significant quality issues with the new phones.

[Constable Odo]

Ramping up production for 800,000 iPhone units a week is the "Kiss of Death" for Apple's stock price. For every 800,000 units produced, look for a drop of at least $1 in Apple's share price. Damn. Why did this bad news have to be mentioned at such a critical time? WS will have Apple by its fiscal genitals. With this lousy news, the current WS whisper numbers will be multiplied by 10X and Apple can't possibly meet those figures.

As I type, Apple's share price is already heading for the bottom of the toilet bowl, ready to be flushed by investors and WS alike.

800,000 iPhones a week = FAIL

[Davewrite]

Originally Posted by Rot'nApple

Was it not a couple of years back when there were "sweatshop" allegations of Foxconn and the manufacturing of iPods? The heck with 'QC' if the manufacturer is said to be "above current fill capacity", what about the employees?! Will this be "Sweatshop, the Sequel". If Apple meant what it said, when it said, "Apple is committed to ensuring that working conditions in our supply chain are safe, workers are treated with respect and dignity, and manufacturing processes are environmentally responsible,” then maybe Apple should pay a surprise inspection every now and then for the welfare of the supply chain's employees...

The reports of Apple 'sweatshop' conditions some time ago was (as usual) a groundless whack at Apple and Chinese manufacturing.

Allegations were refuted by an investigation. Read the investigation "http://www.apple.com/hotnews/ipodreport/"

Much less than 'sweatshop' the investigation states: "The campus includes factories, employee housing, banks, a post office, a hospital, supermarkets, and a variety of recreational facilities including soccer fields, a swimming pool, TV lounges and Internet cafes. Ten cafeterias are also located throughout the campus offering a variety of menu choices"

"Sweatshop" with a swimming pool!

The investigation found out that "The single largest complaint (approximately 20% of interviewed workers) was the lack of overtime during non-peak periods" i.e. not OVERWORK but 'LACK OF MORE OVERTIME' i.e. they wanted to work MORE!
====

I'm not sure if the iPhones are manufactured at the same plant but basically all these 'slave labor' stories especially for high tech manufacturing are overblown. The top end manufacturing plants in china are very sophisticated.

[Booga]

Originally Posted by NDPTAL85

These forums could really benefit from some moderators who keep the discussion from getting so wildly off track as it does with so many stories posted.

References to the 70's energy crisis?
Steve Job's health?
The value of the stock?

The story is about 800,000 iPhones being stamped out a week. Sometimes its like a game of telephone in here where you start off saying 'The Dog is in the Yard' and when it comes back to you the phrase has become 'The Frog is eating Lard'.

The frog is eating Lard?? What does that imply for AAPL and Jobs' health? Should I sell?

[merdhead]

The frog is eating lard?. That sounds serious. I'm going short AAPL.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Davewrite

The investigation found out that "The single largest complaint (approximately 20% of interviewed workers) was the lack of overtime during non-peak periods" i.e. not OVERWORK but 'LACK OF MORE OVERTIME' i.e. they wanted to work MORE!

This only makes sense. Workers in China have but one goal on their minds... to become rich.