Apple averaging 95 iPhone 3G sales per store, per day

[AppleInsider]

After spending 25 hours observing sales of iPhones at Apple's national retail chain, investment bank Piper Jaffray now estimates the company is on track to announce a more than fourfold increase in sales of the handset during its fiscal fourth quarter.

"Our 25 hours of counting iPhone sales in Apple retail stores throughout the country lead us to believe Apple is on pace to beat our previous estimate of 4.1 million iPhones for the September quarter," analyst Gene Munster advised clients in a report Wednesday.

He now estimates that the electronics maker will sell at least 4.47 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to 1.12 million during the same three-month period last year. More specifically, he estimates that Apple sells an average of 95 iPhone 3Gs per day at each of its 188 U.S. retail stores, up from 21 phones per day during a similar check in August of 2007.

"We believe Apple will sell 1.78 million units at its U.S. retail stores, and 0.90 million phones at U.S. AT&T locations," Munster wrote. "Our estimate assumes each of the 2,200 AT&T stores will sell an average of 5 phones per day from the July 11th launch through the end of the September quarter."

The analyst had noted in a previous report that he believes the U.S. sales will account for only 53 percent of iPhones sold worldwide, leaving international sales of the handset to account for the remaining 1.79 million units that make up his fourth quarter estimate.

While demand for the iPhone 3G remains undoubtedly high, Munster's model factors in the likelihood that demand will decrease slightly in the weeks ahead. His firm's 25 hours of checks spanned two weeks, and he noted sales volume decreased about 10 percent during the second week.

Taking this into account, the analyst said his fourth quarter estimate assumes Apple retail stores will average 31 iPhone sales per day for the remaining 51 days in the quarter.

"We believe that our revision may be conservative and that Apple will meet our estimates," he wrote. "The August 22nd launch in additional countries should provide another catalyst to sales."

Munster's model assumed an average of 12 hours of sales per day based on 8 percent of the stores being high-traffic "flagship" locations and remaining 92 percent regular-sized outlets.

[bloggerblog]

And if they had more than 95 phones per day in stock their average would be higher.

[irnchriz]

I think that the iPhone has the potential to be the Wii of cellphones.

[appletweak]

...analyst was noted to be "significantly more odoriferous" and said, "Seriously dudes, twelve hours in front of a store in a cardboard box, phew."

Apple store employees were also observed to be taking side bets on how long the "homeless-looking guy out in the mall" was going to make it.

[Booga]

Does this take into account the dozen or two more countries in which the iPhone 3G is being released a week from now?

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by Booga

Does this take into account the dozen or two more countries in which the iPhone 3G is being released a week from now?

That question is answered specifically in the article from the analyst's own mouth.

[manfrommars]

Originally Posted by bloggerblog

And if they had more than 95 phones per day in stock their average would be higher.

It does seem VERY suspect that there are still 2-3 hour waits for this device. There's one Apple store near LA that claims to sell out "every day" and yet every night they're 'all green' on the iPhone availability chart.

Anyone know what's really going on behind those big glass walls?

[valanchan]

So when can we expect the 10 millionth iPhone sale?

[valanchan]

August 22!

[walshbj]

There's the science of information gathering. And then there's Munster.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by manfrommars

It does seem VERY suspect that there are still 2-3 hour waits for this device. There's one Apple store near LA that claims to sell out "every day" and yet every night they're 'all green' on the iPhone availability chart.

Anyone know what's really going on behind those big glass walls?

I asked this question last Friday to one of the salespeople in the store.

The problem isn't the number of phones available, she said. The problem was in the ordering and setting up the accounts, then the wait for the phones to be activated. She told me that even in a large store, such as the one we were in, here in NYC, down in the meatpacking district, they only had so many connections out that could register these phones, and only so many people to service the phone customers. I was told that people went for special training on the account setup and information. They had ten people in that store who did that, but that they weren't all on duty at once. I was also told that Apple was training more people all the time.

Hopefully, they will catch up soon.

My wife is going on line outside the store at 6 am tomorrow, so that when the store opens at eight, she can get in quickly, get the stub for the phones, and go to work (she volunteered to do that). At 5:30 I'll meet her there, and we will pick up the phones, and get the account worked out. This is for three phones. We were told, no problem. We were also told that the slowest days were Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and not to even bother Friday and Saturday.

[Walter Slocombe]

Yeah me, I got mine today AT LAST!

16GB black and I'm rather impressed.

nothing to add but my excitement really

[Booga]

Originally Posted by cameronj

That question is answered specifically in the article from the analyst's own mouth.

Kind of. The analyst does say, "The August 22nd launch in additional countries should provide another catalyst to sales." That doesn't really answer my question.

[Xian Zhu Xuande]

Originally Posted by Booga

Kind of. The analyst does say, "The August 22nd launch in additional countries should provide another catalyst to sales." That doesn't really answer my question.

Yes, it does. It says, "No."

Unless you are wondering if the average is based specifically on whether the average is based on the total number of Apple stores that exist. That would only be possible if the study was conducted at every single Apple store. Instead, it would be an average of the Apple stores they have studied, thus they wouldn't be including Apple stores which aren't selling iPhones.

[Cubert]

Aren't there good estimates that say they have already sold 3 million? They are only going to sell another 1.5 million in 2 months time?

[bloggerblog]

Originally Posted by melgross

I asked this question last Friday to one of the salespeople in the store.

The problem isn't the number of phones available, she said. The problem was in the ordering and setting up the accounts, then the wait for the phones to be activated. She told me that even in a large store, such as the one we were in, here in NYC, down in the meatpacking district, they only had so many connections out that could register these phones, and only so many people to service the phone customers...

Her story would not apply to here in DC. Where days would pass without any phones being available, and some days only the white ones would be available. One time I remember waiting in a line of only 8 people, but they didn't have a ninth iPhone for me. So I ended-up pre-ordering one from an ATT store which took 8 days to arrive, and that was the 16gigs.
When checking online we have over 5 stores within a driving distance and sometimes only one or two would have phones available, and they would be available to the early bird shopper only. Their recommendation for me was to show-up at around 6:00am!! The mall opens at around 9:30am!
Maybe the inventory is better now, but the shortages I experienced were only two to three weeks ago.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by melgross

I asked this question last Friday to one of the salespeople in the store.

The problem isn't the number of phones available, she said. The problem was in the ordering and setting up the accounts, then the wait for the phones to be activated. She told me that even in a large store, such as the one we were in, here in NYC, down in the meatpacking district, they only had so many connections out that could register these phones, and only so many people to service the phone customers. I was told that people went for special training on the account setup and information. They had ten people in that store who did that, but that they weren't all on duty at once. I was also told that Apple was training more people all the time.

Hopefully, they will catch up soon.

My wife is going on line outside the store at 6 am tomorrow, so that when the store opens at eight, she can get in quickly, get the stub for the phones, and go to work (she volunteered to do that). At 5:30 I'll meet her there, and we will pick up the phones, and get the account worked out. This is for three phones. We were told, no problem. We were also told that the slowest days were Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and not to even bother Friday and Saturday.

God- if that's your experience at Apple, one can only wonder how long a Best Buy transaction will take? Two a day?
How nice of Apple to do all of AT&T's work.

[technohermit]

Originally Posted by teckstud

How nice of Apple to do all of AT&T's work.

Ummm, I think it's actually the opposite. AT&T would like to sell more, they make more money when they sell them. Apple isn't supplying their stores with the phones. I bought mine at an Apple store, went to AT&T for a new SIM the same day (had trouble with porting my number at the Apple store.) The AT&T guy was pissed that his store had to order them and tell people to wait 7-10 days, while Apple stores were getting them in every night.
Also, I am on hold right now with AT&T and the lady just told me that Apple has loosened up a bit, but still have a very tight leash on what AT&T is allowed to help with on the tech support side of things. I am currently having trouble with voicemail, and she might have to direct me to Apple support for it. It is Apple whipping AT&T, not the other way around.
I just got a new iPhone because my radio was bad in the first one, which was a black 16gb week 29 build. This one is week 31, I hope it was just a one time problem. I read last night on the discussions boards on Apple's site that the problem is pretty big. Quite a few people in quite a few places have had the same problem of large numbers of dropped calls and terrible 3g reception. But that discussion is probably not relevant for this thread.
Suffice it to say Apple has tight control over what the carriers say and do with the iPhone.

[freakboy]

look, i'm sure they did some nice homework here. but 25 hours of observation is kind of laughable. I sat outside one store and measured 95 sales. That MUST BE WHAT HAPPENS EVERYWHERE!

give me a break.

Even doing one hour in front of 25 stores doesn't come close to measuring this.

this is me:

this is the guy who did this survey:

[bwik]

Seeing surveys this poorly done makes me realize how much money I really ought to be making.

[bloggerblog]

Originally Posted by technohermit

Ummm, I think it's actually the opposite. AT&T would like to sell more, they make more money when they sell them...

They do make money but not from the sale of the iPhone, instead it's from the contract. The iPhone still costs $500 however this time the customer pays Apple $200 and ATT pays Apple $300 for every iPhone sold in the US. This is why ATT will not allow any iPhone to be sold without a signed contract first, they do not want to lose. This wasn't the case with the original iPhone, you could buy it no differently than buying a mouse, no immediate contracts.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by bloggerblog

Her story would not apply to here in DC. Where days would pass without any phones being available, and some days only the white ones would be available. One time I remember waiting in a line of only 8 people, but they didn't have a ninth iPhone for me. So I ended-up pre-ordering one from an ATT store which took 8 days to arrive, and that was the 16gigs.
When checking online we have over 5 stores within a driving distance and sometimes only one or two would have phones available, and they would be available to the early bird shopper only. Their recommendation for me was to show-up at around 6:00am!! The mall opens at around 9:30am!
Maybe the inventory is better now, but the shortages I experienced were only two to three weeks ago.

The reports on that is that some Apple stores are out of stock at times.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by teckstud

God- if that's your experience at Apple, one can only wonder how long a Best Buy transaction will take? Two a day?
How nice of Apple to do all of AT&T's work.

I'm not sure what those comments are supposed to mean, but there's no reason to believe that it would take any longer at BB.

Apple is doing Apple's work.

[Tamerlane]

In the Netherlands, T-Mobile has claimes it has sold 35,000 iPhones alreadt. I went and reserved one at one for their stores yesterday, because not a single store has one on offer right now, and the sales-droid pulled up a folder with (rough estimate) at least a hundred applications just like mine. So, over here at least the demand certainly hasn't dried up yet, and I dread the 22nd when another 20 countries will be clamouring for my precious white iPhone...

[charlituna]

Originally Posted by bloggerblog

And if they had more than 95 phones per day in stock their average would be higher.

probably not.

you have to remember that this ain't like last year where it was grab a phone, scan it, take some money and drop it in a bag. now they have to do the whole ATT thing with account lookups, credit checks etc. even a short transaction is likely 10-15 minutes and they can't have everyone doing phones cause they have to sell other stuff.

[charlituna]

Originally Posted by manfrommars

It does seem VERY suspect that there are still 2-3 hour waits for this device. There's one Apple store near LA that claims to sell out "every day" and yet every night they're 'all green' on the iPhone availability chart.

Anyone know what's really going on behind those big glass walls?

it's not that hard to figure out.

they have a limited stock and limited staff to sell the phones. but then late afternoon they get a store shipment and by the time they have more phones unpacked it's too late to start selling them so they go into the next day.

I asked a guy at my local store about the whole 6pm ticket cut off and he flat told me that it was because the company does not want any phones being rung up after 8.30 so that the availability reports are correct and the cut off gives them time in case the last guy in line is a total f-up of a transaction (some of them have taken an hour or even two to get ATT's end sorted out)

so if the phones aren't ready to sell by 6pm you can bet they aren't going to open the boxes

[melgross]

Originally Posted by Tamerlane

In the Netherlands, T-Mobile has claimes it has sold 35,000 iPhones alreadt. I went and reserved one at one for their stores yesterday, because not a single store has one on offer right now, and the sales-droid pulled up a folder with (rough estimate) at least a hundred applications just like mine. So, over here at least the demand certainly hasn't dried up yet, and I dread the 22nd when another 20 countries will be clamouring for my precious white iPhone...

That's why we're finally getting our three today.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by melgross

That's why we're finally getting our three today.

Three? I take it you got your vouchers this morning. Did you have to all go together to be able to buy that many at once?

[melgross]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Three? I take it you got your vouchers this morning. Did you have to all go together to be able to buy that many at once?

My wife had volunteered to go early yesterday for that, but a business call killed it.

She went today, and lined up at 6:00 am. They opened the store early at 7:30. Unfortunately, she didn't have all the info as to what we wanted for the family account, and I didn't either when she called me at 7:45, so we're both going back at 5:00.

Yes, they gave her the vouchers instead. Too bad we didn't think she could get it then, as we had been told that we would have to come back later in the day when we went and asked Friday.

[s.metcalf]

I was one of those guys, I think I waited in line for about 1.5 hours then it took about 1.5 hours to get credit approval because of a problem with the credit agency. They couldn't do anything except keep calling back every 20 minutes until it came through. I felt sorry for everyone waiting in line...I just wanted to be in and out...at least I eventually ended up leaving with one and not having to wait 3-4 weeks for any of the non-Apple retailers to get one! The stupid thing is I probably have a bad credit rating but I could easily have afforded to buy it outright...it's just cause I move and change jobs too frequently...

Originally Posted by charlituna

it's not that hard to figure out.

the cut off gives them time in case the last guy in line is a total f-up of a transaction (some of them have taken an hour or even two to get ATT's end sorted out)