Apple's Best Buy play makes 12m iPhones "very conservative"

[AppleInsider]

An agreement for Best Buy to start selling iPhones will help make already strong estimates for Apple's device sales seem all too modest, according to an investment note from Lehman Brothers.

Analyst Ben Reitzes determines that the large increase in the number of American distribution points that comes with the Best Buy initiative, combined with more than one million iPhones sold on the launch weekend alone, should result in Apple blowing past earlier predictions for the rest of calendar 2008.

"We believe our estimate of 3.8 million iPhones sold in Apple’s [September quarter] is very conservative," Reitzes says. "Furthermore, we believe that initial demand overseas is very strong and will get much stronger; we estimate at least 8.3 million iPhones could be sold in [the December quarter]," equating to 12.1 million of the new devices trading hands during the summer and fall combined.

The analyst notes that Apple has enjoyed the results of its rapidly expanding Best Buy presence with Macs and may be poised to expand the "halo" effect with iPhones on sale at the third-party chain, as customers buying iPhones come back to buy other Apple products.

The timing of Apple's retail expansion is also seen as fortunate given a much healthier iPhone supply starting from late July, though the researchers at Lehman don't anticipate the Cupertino, Calif.-based company's supply levels to keep up with demand before September. International demand may exacerbate the problem with over 20 countries set to offer the device on August 22nd.

These factors could also be enough to skew estimates for future years, Reitzes adds. Lehman now believes its prediction of 24.2 million iPhones sold in Apple's fiscal 2009 is just as conservative as for the next few months and could be similarly pessimistic through fiscal 2010.

Not every analyst shares this point of view. Although Reitzes believes iPhone sales at Best Buy and elsewhere should have a significant effect on Apple's cash flow, UBS Investment Research analyst Maynard Um notes that each Best Buy store would have to sell about 200 iPhones to move Apple's earnings per share by one cent. That's performance unlikely to occur so early into the retail expansion, he argues.

Even if true, the Lehman expert views the move as a "tipping point" that will get iPhones into more places and boost sales, and that it won't be alone: in addition to redesigned MacBook lines which match information provided to AppleInsider, he also expects multiple MacBook Air variants, new iPods, and the possibility of an ultraportable media and messaging device appearing in the next six months.

[echosonic]

any monkey could have made that prediciton. analists.

worthless.

[merdhead]

Multiple Air variants would be nice, like one with a smaller foot print. I miss my old 12".

[thomasfxlt]

Originally Posted by echosonic

any monkey could have that prediciton. analists.

worthless.

I'd say he's a tad brighter than this douchebag.....

http://www.thestreet.com/video/10432....html#10432613

[Nobody Special]

Originally Posted by merdhead

Multiple Air variants would be nice, like one with a smaller foot print. I miss my old 12".

Amen! Preach on Brother Merdhead!

[eAi]

After having used my new iPhone for the last couple of weeks, I can't really see the need for a larger form-factor device. I've hardly used my MacBook Pro in that time, except for some Photoshop work and a couple of games... I can't quite see Apple making one, but perhaps. It'd be more elegant to merge it into one of the other lines (e.g. MacBook Air).

[chwilliam]

I'm sorry, "ultraportable media and messaging device"? Sounds like a phone to me. I like hearing more about an iTablet than an iPhone Plus Size.

[echosonic]

Originally Posted by thomasfxlt

I'd say he's a tad brighter than this douchebag.....

http://www.thestreet.com/video/10432....html#10432613

He said "I'd buy Dell before I'd buy Apple."

The big factor these toolbags keep willfully overlooking is the "tech" aspect of Apple. And that's just fine, because when the "experts" figure out that Apple is now more "Sony" than it is "Intel", there will be a run up in its stock like you can't imagine. Every day is a good day to buy Apple.

Anybody who says differently, even based on their financials, is effing wrong. Any Monkey can see that.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by merdhead

Multiple Air variants would be nice, like one with a smaller foot print. I miss my old 12".

Originally Posted by Nobody Special

Amen! Preach on Brother Merdhead!

I'd like to have one too, but it's only viable in the 4:3 ratio, which Apple won't go back to. Have you seen the widescreen notebooks that are 11" or 12"? They don't have enough screen height to be useful for reading documents. The 13" MB already as a shorter screen height than the 12" PB.

Diagonal...Ratio...Width...Height
PB 12"......4:3.....9.6"....7.2"
MB 13".....16:10...11.0"....6.9"

[Alonso Perez]

Originally Posted by thomasfxlt

I'd say he's a tad brighter than this douchebag.....

http://www.thestreet.com/video/10432....html#10432613

Um, the guy's point isn't that Apple isn't doing well. His point is that everybody knows this already so the news is priced into the stock. It's a fair point.

My personal opinion is that uncertainty about Job's health situation is dragging down on the stock. I didn't see much impact from the NYT article where Jobs talked to the journalist and said he was cancer free. Investors will believe it when they see it.

If Jobs shows up at the September event looking just slightly better than at WMDC, I think AAPL could go straight to $250 or higher, assuming the rest of the market isn't tanking at that time. If he doesn't show, or if he looks worse, then at best it will stay where it is, but more likely it will sink to below $150.

Apple must be aware of this, so the fact that they are planning an event at all is a positive sign.

[Alonso Perez]

Originally Posted by eAi

After having used my new iPhone for the last couple of weeks, I can't really see the need for a larger form-factor device.

Well, you are you. Now, I'll admit I don't have an iPhone yet, but spending two weeks without a real computer is simply unthinkable to me. There are a ton of things you can't do on an iPhone-sized device.

[teckstud]

Are you serious that this BULLSH*T deserves a thread?
Gimme a break and post something decent for a change on here already.

[thomasfxlt]

Originally Posted by Alonso Perez

Well, you are you. Now, I'll admit I don't have an iPhone yet, but spending two weeks without a real computer is simply unthinkable to me. There are a ton of things you can't do on an iPhone-sized device.

It's not that he doesn't have a point, it's the arrogance with which he make HIS point....

and the stock is up $ 17 bucks since his "don't do it" call.

[JimDreamworx]

After reading this, it's not an issue of "Does anyone want an iPhone?"

It seems that (notwithstanding the forum I am posting in) this has become a given.

It's an issue of "How can we ensure people can buy an iPhone?"

Oh, the fate of being popular!

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Alonso Perez

Well, you are you. Now, I'll admit I don't have an iPhone yet, but spending two weeks without a real computer is simply unthinkable to me. There are a ton of things you can't do on an iPhone-sized device.

There is quite a bit that can be done with a device that small, but there is this matter of efficiency. That inefficiency doesn't matter so much for those that aren't heavy computer users, but it does make a difference to those that are. There are a lot of compromises needed just to make a device that small.

[MacMyDay]

Good god Apple. You've got the eyes of the world and the world in your arms. blow off the ATT deal, sell the friggin' fones for $400 or $500 unlocked and just let the dough roll in... the locking customers into two years is just so baaaaad. I'd gladly pay $500 for a phone unlocked and choose my own friggin' carrier .... you got distribution and with T-Mobile, ATT and soon Verizon going GSM freedom should be the game... not prison.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by MacMyDay

Good god Apple. You've got the eyes of the world and the world in your arms. blow off the ATT deal, sell the friggin' fones for $400 or $500 unlocked and just let the dough roll in... the locking customers into two years is just so baaaaad. I'd gladly pay $500 for a phone unlocked and choose my own friggin' carrier .... you got distribution and with T-Mobile, ATT and soon Verizon going GSM freedom should be the game... not prison.

Can you explain how you think would benefit Apple? BTW, there are no UTMS networks for T-Mobile. Sprint or Verizon.

[Slewis]

Null.

[bigmc6000]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I'd like to have one too, but it's only viable in the 4:3 ratio, which Apple won't go back to. Have you seen the widescreen notebooks that are 11" or 12"? They don't have enough screen height to be useful for reading documents. The 13" MB already as a shorter screen height than the 12" PB.

Diagonal...Ratio...Width...Height
PB 12"......4:3.....9.6"....7.2"
MB 13".....16:10...11.0"....6.9"

That's why I'm waiting on an Aluminum MB to replace my 3.5 year old 12" PB

On a side note - I love the fact that iPhony (read: Instinct) is going to be side by side with the iPhone. How on God's green earth are you going to convince someone to buy the Instinct if they aren't already locked in with Sprint and AT&T has reception in the area??? Well, other than the Apple Haters of course but man - between the App Store and the WiFi and the soon to be released turn by turn navigation the instinct really provides no advantages at all...

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by bigmc6000

That's why I'm waiting on an Aluminum MB to replace my 3.5 year old 12" PB

On a side note - I love the fact that iPhony (read: Instinct) is going to be side by side with the iPhone. How on God's green earth are you going to convince someone to buy the Instinct if they aren't already locked in with Sprint and AT&T has reception in the area??? Well, other than the Apple Haters of course but man - between the App Store and the WiFi and the soon to be released turn by turn navigation the instinct really provides no advantages at all...

TV Shows and a 3G battery life that slightly bests the iPhone's battery life for calls because CDMA2000 can use CDMA for calls while maintaining a CDMA connection for data and UMTS can't. But being on a Sprint network is the biggest draw and I've already recommended it to people that are on Sprint and being offered deals on plans and new handsets (they require a carrier lock in, of course). So far, it's the best "iPhone killer" )read: competitor) currently on the market I've seen, but that won't last long.

[bigmc6000]

Originally Posted by solipsism

TV Shows and a 3G battery life that slightly bests the iPhone's battery life for calls because CDMA2000 can use CDMA for calls while maintaining a CDMA connection for data and UMTS can't. But being on a Sprint network is the biggest draw and I've already recommended it to people that are on Sprint and being offered deals on plans and new handsets (they require a carrier lock in, of course). So far, it's the best "iPhone killer" )read: competitor) currently on the market I've seen, but that won't last long.

I'd still tend to think that if you're not locked into a service provider and your salesman isn't slanted in either direction you'd end up with the iPhone. Of course the huge elephant in the room is how Anti- (or Pro) Apple are some of the employees at Best Buy? Especially the ones that don't have the built-in Apple Stores. There was a long standing belief amongst the people on here and on MR that the people at Best Buy would talk just about anybody out of a Mac and didn't know enough about Macs to even provide good information. I'm sure that's changed at all the stores that have those dedicated Apple sections but what about the hundreds that don't have the devoted Apple sections? Combine that with the fact that it's going to be sold by the cell phone employee and not the computer employee.

But still - in the end - I think this will be a huge catalyst in furthering iPhone growth because a lot of people go into Best Buy for a number of reasons and might just stop by to check out "what all the buzz is about" but I don't know of anyone that actually goes out of their way to go to an AT&T store just to check out a phone... At least that's my impression.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by solipsism

TV Shows and a 3G battery life that slightly bests the iPhone's battery life for calls because CDMA2000 can use CDMA for calls while maintaining a CDMA connection for data and UMTS can't. But being on a Sprint network is the biggest draw and I've already recommended it to people that are on Sprint and being offered deals on plans and new handsets (they require a carrier lock in, of course). So far, it's the best "iPhone killer" )read: competitor) currently on the market I've seen, but that won't last long.

Have you seen the LG DARE?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Have you seen the LG DARE?

I did forget about the Verizon LG Dare, but I honestly don't know anyone in the flesh who uses Verizon so I wasn't considering it. That is also another good competitor though the $100M Instinct ad campaign is making would probably push it over the edge for being the best "iPhone killer." Remember, it's all about sales in the end.

As for direct competition I'd say the Dare is the better choice for having better 3G speeds (that that is because of Verizon) and for having a web browser. On the other hand the Instinct does do some some things better than the Dare and only cost $129 compared to the Dare's $199 price. And both offer things like video recording that the iPhone can't do.

Bottom line: if you were a long time Verizon or Sprint customer who had never used a smartphone before but were considering getting an iPhone but were weary about the iPhone's missing features or AT&T I'd first recommend getting the Dare or Instinct, respectively.

[MacGregor]

Originally Posted by solipsism
"I'd like to have one too, but it's only viable in the 4:3 ratio, which Apple won't go back to. Have you seen the widescreen notebooks that are 11" or 12"? They don't have enough screen height to be useful for reading documents. The 13" MB already as a shorter screen height than the 12" PB."

Yeah, but that isn't such a bad thing. The little Vaio's have had even more dramatically shortened wide-screens and they sold just fine.

[merdhead]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I'd like to have one too, but it's only viable in the 4:3 ratio, which Apple won't go back to. Have you seen the widescreen notebooks that are 11" or 12"? They don't have enough screen height to be useful for reading documents. The 13" MB already as a shorter screen height than the 12" PB.

Diagonal...Ratio...Width...Height
PB 12"......4:3.....9.6"....7.2"
MB 13".....16:10...11.0"....6.9"

I don't think that's an issue. What I miss about my old 12" is that it was only as wide as the keyboard. It doesn't have to be ultra thin and the screen would only have to be a little less wide to fit into that width assuming they trim some of the screen border.

Moreover they need to get rid of the CD drive, it's completely useless. They need to solder in 4G of memory and they can skimp on the battery a bit since the difference between 4h and 3h is not much, you still need to plug in to get any sort of work done during the day. I think keeping standard hard drives and processors are a good idea.

But something like this would not have the profile of an Air. I don't know if Apple care about small laptops or if the 12" sold that well, but right now they only make laptops that are rather large to very large. It's the SUV mentality! I want a laptop that is genuinely small, not just an optical illusion.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by merdhead

I want a laptop that is genuinely small, not just an optical illusion.

Remember that the screen is done on a diagonal so if you want a machine with the same width of the 12" PB you'll have to go for a 11.2" screen at 16:10, not a 12" at 16:10. Check out the 11.1" Sony Vaio if you want one that has the same width of the 12" PB. That makes the screen height now just under 6 inches high. That is 1.3" less screen height just to have the aesthetic of the notebook ending at the edge of the keyboard.

Also, the display size and aspect ratio almost always determines the footprint of the machine which means that a 4:3 ratio notebook will have more square area for components than a 16:10 ratio notebook. Now Apple has less room to put the same components.

It's just not possible no matter who you measure it when using a widescreen display.

PS: I am all for the optical drive being removed completely. It's the single largest base component out the side battery and it's not often used. Removing it would allow for a great deal of design freedom. Will Apple do it this time around? Probably not, but the next design change in about 3 years should see the removal of the drive.

[merdhead]

Ah solipsism. As usual, you are well informed but miss the point entirely. Atheistics is important but those who have a good memory (and who bother to read my posts) will note that I have railed against design over function. And it is functionality that I want here.

Smaller is better with laptops. Much better. If I could I would carry around my laptop as if it were my mobile phone. I still want to do serious work (mostly programming) on it, so I need a full keyboard, a decent screen and performance, but I really want portability because I want my laptop by me at all times. It's my only friend.

Now portability has its trade offs, which I'm willing to accept. Screen size is not so critical and 1.3" is not an issue. When I'm at my desk I plug my MacBook into three screens for a total of 5100x1200 pixels. If I'm not at my desk I can live without so many pixels. Also you could put more pixels into a smaller screen in a compact design.

As for the width it actually happens to be a critical factor for me because of an unusual way I use my laptop (but will become more popular in the future I think). I often use my laptop lying down (usually in bed) with front bottom edge resting on my chest (in the little nook above that bone where the bottom of your rib cage meets) and the machine fully open. I support the laptop with my left pinkie and both my palms resting below the keyboard. I type with two hands. Doing this is more and more difficult as the machine gets wider. That's why a MacBook Pro is not an option for me. The 12" was perfect for this. A lighter machine is good for this too.

I know it might seem strange and unique to me, but once you get into working lying down it is a revelation. It's supremely comfortable, you can do it where ever there is a bed or a floor (no desk required) and studies have shown that people are more creative in this position. I kid you not. Whenever I am designing something I do it lying down. When I'm doing more tedious work I sit at my desk. It really makes a huge difference.

PS: You might be right but if Apple took it upon themselves to build an "Air" range they could easily trash the CD just in that range.

[solipsism]

@ Merhhead,

As I said in my initial post on this topic I would like to have a smaller form factor too, but went to describe the reasons why Apple won't do it. When you travel as much as I do a MB is quite big on weight and dimensions. THen throw in the 2 extra batteries I carry and it gets to be a pain at times. I specifically have a Eec PC for when I'm "backpacking" it because I need to be connected no matter I am.

[merdhead]

Apple won't go back to 4:3 which is fine, but height is far from important. As long as you get 1000+ pixels across viewing documents is fine, you have to scroll anyway unless you have a huge screen. And anyway you can have the same number of pixels with a smaller size. People tend to be closer to the screen when they use their laptops.

I think the important thing is that people want smaller laptops. Just like you and me. I don't think there are valid technical or usability reasons for not building them. The Air has shown that people will accept trade-offs for size. Now Apple has to take that further and make a truly small laptop.

So why didn't you buy and Air?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by merdhead

So why didn't you buy and Air?

The main reason is the bad battery life. I didn't necessary need a user-replaceable battery but having one that is at least 5 hours would be required on one charge. I though about one of the external battery packs but the price was too high for a machine that I would be banging around quite a bit so I opted for the Eee.

[MacGregor]

merdhead, hmmm, that was almost too much information, but I appreciate your detailed description to further the topic.

For me Apple just needs to make an 10 inch MacBook Air with tablet multi-touch capability. No optical drives and lots of battery and gpu's for dual monitors when available. Incrementally making MacBooks smaller and lighter is okay, but time for a little more revolution and less evolution.