Apple may report unprecedented 3 million Mac quarter

[AppleInsider]

The investment banking division of the Royal Bank of Canada said Thursday that Apple's back-to-school promotion is showing signs that it will drive the company to a record-smashing quarter in which sales of Macs could exceed 3 million.

In a report to clients, analyst Mike Abramsky cited proprietary data from his firm's recent IQ/ChangeWave Panel which "suggests that massive back-to-school Mac sales" could see the Cupertino-based company report year-over-year growth of 44 percent to 3.04 million units for the three month period ending September.

The study of 4,400 respondents demonstrates "resilience despite a sluggish consumer spending environment," and would also signal 22 percent growth on a sequential basis, the analyst said. Apple shipped a record 2.496 million systems for the most recent quarter ended June.

Specifically, Abramsky pointed to "unprecedented intentions" on the part of consumers during what has historically been only Apple's second strongest Mac quarter. His firm's study found that 34 percent of respondents intend to purchase a Mac notebook in the next 90 days, while another 30 percent plan to buy a Mac desktop.

"We forecast Apple's global PC share to rise to 4.2 percent [in 2009], from 2.9 percent [in 2007]," he said, adding that every 25 basis points of market share gain will equate to $1 billion in incremental revenue and $0.15 in per share earnings.

Two factors appear to be driving the uncharacteristically large surge in fiscal fourth quarter Mac sales, according to the analyst. The first is Apple's back-to-school promotion, which offers a $299 rebate for a free iPod touch to educational customers who purchase a qualifying Mac system through September 15th. The second is an "iPhone halo effect" where 17 percent of consumers in the RBC study say they're now "more likely" to purchase a Mac after having purchased and experienced the new iPhone 3G.

Abramsky has been one most accurate analysts covering Apple in recent quarters, besting all other Wall Street folk tracked by AppleInsider in predicting the results of Apple's second fiscal quarter. He was also the only analyst to accurately predict the company would sell 1 million units of the iPhone 3G in its first weekend on the market.

Abramsky reiterated his Outperform rating and $200 price target on shares of the Mac maker. He estimates sales of 5.1 million iPhones for the company's September quarter and also anticipates new Mac notebooks and iPods will arrive later this quarter or early next.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[Booga]

We're still a month from the quarter's end and two from quarterly results. If they're saying 3M now, analysts will be estimating about 4.5M by the time the quarter ends, and when Apple sells 3.2M the stock will tank...

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

His firm's study found that 34 percent of respondents intend to purchase a Mac notebook in the next 90 days, while another 30 percent plan to buy a Mac desktop.

64% going to buy Apple.
Huge.

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by Booga

We're still a month from the quarter's end and two from quarterly results. If they're saying 3M now, it'll be about 4.5M estimated by the time the quarter ends, and when Apple sells 3.2M the stock will tank...

Now that's just crazy talk.
He didn't say they SOLD 3 million, he said they would SELL three million by the end.
Read more carefully.

[teckstud]

Pairing Macs with free iPods gave birth to this I'd say.

[Enigmafan420]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Pairing Macs with free iPods gave birth to this I'd say.

No doubt-I wish I had gotten my iPod touch for FREE

Back when I was in school-NO BODY wanted a Mac-for obvious reasons, the John Sculley and Jean Louis Gassee days...

[zunx]

The day people know about the Mac (say, 25% market share for Mac), Windows will be history in three years. Windows is only maintained by inertia and ignorance.

[Constable Odo]

Doesn't it always seem like no matter how much Apple sells, WS is always expecting higher. I don't quite understand why this happens quarter after quarter. Still Apple should have a blowout quarter due to both high Mac and iPhone sales. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but it seems there is a good possibility from what I've been reading. Let's hope that all those teenagers and college students that have been hanging out at the Apple Stores have saved up money all summer long and are ready to make their Mac notebook purchases and get that free iPod to go along with it. That is really great incentive and clears inventory at the same time.

What bugs the heck out of me is that Apple is doing far better than it's peers and gets no reward for that. Why don't investors just jump on the Apple streak and make some money?

[Mr Underhill]

Originally Posted by zunx

The day people know about the Mac (say, 25% market share for Mac), Windows will be history in three years. Windows is only maintained by inertia and ignorance.

Whilst i take your point about Microsoft, i don't think people are ignorant of Apple, more that Apple Macs appear too expensive for the masses.

Case in point are the sales of iPhone 3G in the UK compared to the 1st generation. I know lots of people who wanted an iPhone 1st time around, but thought it too expensive. Those very same people now own an iPhone 3G as it's now perceived as good value. When, or if, Apple lower their prices on their computer lines, then you'll see a surge in Apple market share not just here in the UK, but th world.

People are aware of the Apple brand but just can't justify the extra cash.

[jpellino]

Originally Posted by Constable Odo

What bugs the heck out of me is that Apple is doing far better than it's peers and gets no reward for that. Why don't investors just jump on the Apple streak and make some money?

Erm, look at AAPL's past two years. Many people made much money. Many more will. You could have made a bit of money in the past year if you timed it right with momentum trading, but that's not what investing is about. Trading volume has tripled since 2005 from its historical levels. And we've all heard how much the execs have made on stocks. Plus the numbers. $24B revenue... $8B profit... 28% return on equity... sounds pretty rewarding to me!

[ktappe]

Originally Posted by wbrasington

Now that's just crazy talk. He didn't say they SOLD 3 million, he said they would SELL three million by the end.

It's not crazy at all--his guess very likely to be correct. If you've watched AAPL over the years, you'd know it goes up on rumors and speculation (such as this), then tanks when actual products or profits get announced. Hell, it dropped $5 in the first 3 minutes of Jobs' latest keynote. In this case, "analysts" (aka. those paid large amounts of money to pull numbers out of a random orifice) will see the 3 million guess then try to outdo each other and raise estimates to 4.5 million. Investors will see these guesses and buy up AAPL. Then the original guess will turn out to have been correct all along and AAPL will drop $10 in overnight trading following the 5PM conference call from Cupertino. Just watch.

[rtdunham]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

The investment banking division of the Royal Bank of Canada said Thursday that Apple's back-to-school promotion is showing signs that it will drive the company to a record-smashing quarter in which sales of Macs could exceed 3 million... for the three month period ending September.

remember apple knows how sales are going before we ever read about it.

if the apple's internally aware of booming laptop sales along the lines of this prediction, isn't it unlikely it'll be eager to introduce new models (normally a strategy to boost lagging sales)?

[farshad]

Id rather be 10% market share and stay a little expensive. No reason to compete with Dell. Apple has a strong brand and thats worth more in the long run.

[Mr Underhill]

Originally Posted by farshad

Id rather be 10% market share and stay a little expensive. No reason to compete with Dell. Apple has a strong brand and thats worth more in the long run.

Couldn't agree more

[LoganHunter]

I can't hardly wait for the new Mac models to come out! I search the web every single day trying to know a little more about it! I'm looking forward to buy a MBP! I use windows since de begining and linux for 10 years or so but I really do want to get a Mac and enjoy OSX! If they come out with nice specs, I'm sure they will sell well! Come on, Apple! Show us what you got!

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by ktappe

It's not crazy at all--his guess very likely to be correct. If you've watched AAPL over the years, you'd know it goes up on rumors and speculation (such as this), then tanks when actual products or profits get announced. Hell, it dropped $5 in the first 3 minutes of Jobs' latest keynote. In this case, "analysts" (aka. those paid large amounts of money to pull numbers out of a random orifice) will see the 3 million guess then try to outdo each other and raise estimates to 4.5 million. Investors will see these guesses and buy up AAPL. Then the original guess will turn out to have been correct all along and AAPL will drop $10 in overnight trading following the 5PM conference call from Cupertino. Just watch.

Show me ONE example of a credible analyst raising estimates two months into a quarter, and then raising them again BY FIFTY PERCENT within thirty days.

One time.

One example.

Ever.

Doesn't happen, it's crazy talk.

NOBODY, is going to put their repuation on the line by saying 3 million Macs after looking at how the school sales are going, and then raise it to 4.5 million after the bulk of the school sales already happened to get you to the 3 million estimate. Crazy.

The people that makes estimates, look at the sales they can see, the factors that can accelerate or decelerate that sales rate, plug that into a full quarter run rate, and come up with a number for the entire quarter.

When you see someone raise an estimate by 50% within a couple weeks with ZERO new marketing efforts coming out.... you let us all know.
Until then.....

[AHeneen]

Originally Posted by zunx

The day people know about the Mac (say, 25% market share for Mac), Windows will be history in three years. Windows is only maintained by inertia and ignorance.

Originally Posted by Mr Underhill

Whilst i take your point about Microsoft, i don't think it's that people are ignorant of Apple, more that Apple Macs appear too expensive for the masses.

Case in point are the sales of iPhone 3G in the UK compared to the 1st generation. I know lots of people who wanted an iPhone 1st time round, but thought it too expensive. Those same people now own iPhone 3G's as it's now perceived as great value. When, or if, Apple lower their prices on their computer lines, then you'll see a surge in Apple market share not just here in the UK, but th world.

People know the Apple brand very well, but just can't justify the cash layout.

I think we can all agree that most Macs are competitively priced when it comes to the hardware. But when it comes to the AVERAGE PC buyer (not those with money or those in IT, business, the arts, or science) but the blue collar workers, the healthcare professionals, the education field (which is slowly changing), or the poorest among us...I just don't see the Windows waning so quickly. I'd imagine the least amount of time for Windows to become a memory would be 8-10 years...and that's IF Apple expands their lineup AND includes some cheap models. How can Apple completely overtake the industry when their cheapest notebook is $1099 (an doesn't even burn DVDs like some $500 laptops do?) and the cheapest desktop is $599 (not including a monitor, keyboard, or mouse)??????? I would not be surprised if 75% of PCs sold are ones which cost less that $1000!

Again, this is NOT to say that Apple products aren't worth the money...it's just that most who buy PCs do so for the cost (and of course inertia and ignorance play a part). Also, many industries are PC-centric. I for one, am an engineer and there is only 1 CAD software which runs on my Mac...but since it's not one which is widely used and not compatible with others, I am stuck using AutoCAD via Windows/BootCamp. Another example would be healthcare...has anyone ever seen a Mac used in the healthcare field?? Not just that, but many machines (from ATMs, self-checkouts, etc.) run a special type of Windows. Also 99% of computers in public schools are PCs, why?...because they're inexpensive. While there have always been a few Macs around most schools, PCs are king. Of course software will be developed for OS X in these industries if Macs start to rule...but most people don't buy a new computer every year!! Many companies, almost all schools, and a large minority of people keep their computers for at least 5 years.

While I certainly don't want to seem too critical (I love my MacBook Pro and will never buy a PC), but we must admit there are many hurdles before the world opens their eyes to the greatness of Macs. I would love to see the day Macs rule...but my pessimistic side doesn't see that happening that soon!

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by rtdunham

remember apple knows how sales are going before we ever read about it.

if the apple's internally aware of booming laptop sales along the lines of this prediction, isn't it unlikely it'll be eager to introduce new models (normally a strategy to boost lagging sales)?

Usually, the introduction of new models is geared to keep a lead on competitiors, and set up for the winter season. They usually set the table and run with their plan. It is not unusal to end a selling season with new products or dressing up the old line. (MBA introduced just after XMas, Touch introduced at end of BTS sales)

Don't look for slowing model sales to trigger the new models.
They have new models on the planning board for some time before they launch.
Everybody knows they are launching new models based on the SJ comments and the mere fact it's September. (even sans comments by SJ..... it would still be September and the plans from last winter for what would be released are going to play out)

[AHeneen]

Originally Posted by rtdunham

remember apple knows how sales are going before we ever read about it.

if the apple's internally aware of booming laptop sales along the lines of this prediction, isn't it unlikely it'll be eager to introduce new models (normally a strategy to boost lagging sales)?

Apple tends to refresh models as the technology becomes available. But as far as new models go, I think they introduce them simply to increase sales...not necessarily "lagging sales".

[Booga]

Originally Posted by wbrasington

Show me ONE example of a credible analyst raising estimates two months into a quarter, and then raising them again BY FIFTY PERCENT within thirty days.

One time.

One example.

Ever.

Doesn't happen, it's crazy talk.

NOBODY, is going to put their repuation on the line by saying 3 million Macs after looking at how the school sales are going, and then raise it to 4.5 million after the bulk of the school sales already happened to get you to the 3 million estimate. Crazy.

The people that makes estimates, look at the sales they can see, the factors that can accelerate or decelerate that sales rate, plug that into a full quarter run rate, and come up with a number for the entire quarter.

When you see someone raise an estimate by 50% within a couple weeks with ZERO new marketing efforts coming out.... you let us all know.
Until then.....

I didn't say it would be the same analyst. Last quarter, and the quarter before that, and etc... each analyst came out with a higher estimate than the last until it got ridiculous for both Mac and iPod estimated sales.

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by Booga

I didn't say it would be the same analyst. Last quarter, and the quarter before that, and etc... each analyst came out with a higher estimate than the last until it got ridiculous for both Mac and iPod estimated sales.

Show me a credible analyst last quarter, that went nuts and was off by 50% on mac numbers.
In fact, show me EVER AN ANALYST that was off on Mac sales by 50% in the last two years.

It has never happened, saying it happens all the time is just crazy talk.

[TheCrow]

Oh no! More good news! Down goes the stock. Every time something comes out that sounds fabulous for Apple, the stock inexplicably tanks. I just don't get it.

[guinness]

Originally Posted by TheCrow

Oh no! More good news! Down goes the stock. Every time something comes out that sounds fabulous for Apple, the stock inexplicably tanks. I just don't get it.

That doesn't make any sense, unless they are then expecting even more sales...maybe the analysts shouldn't say anything at all.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by ktappe

It's not crazy at all--his guess very likely to be correct. If you've watched AAPL over the years, you'd know it goes up on rumors and speculation (such as this), then tanks when actual products or profits get announced.
<snip>
Investors will see these guesses and buy up AAPL. Then the original guess will turn out to have been correct all along and AAPL will drop $10 in overnight trading following the 5PM conference call from Cupertino. Just watch.

I'm not sure what the bellyaching is about.
If the stock goes up $20 in the run-up to financial disclosures due to wild optimism and starry-eyed investors jumping on the bandwagon and then drops $10 when the (albeit fantastic) actual numbers get announced, who is the fool? Only those people who bought when the stock was already run-up. If you already know this is the pattern, then use this knowledge to buy before the run-up (or after the post announcement drop).
If you have the extra money and the stones, you could even try to be one of those people. Buy now. And then be the one to start the selloff at 1 minute into the Keynote at the peak price.

I personally don't have the money or the stones for that, so I buy when I think it is low and hold on as long as I think the price is below my long term expectations of Apple's growth and profit potential. Those counterintuitive selloffs on great news don't really have any impact when you follow that strategy...

Originally Posted by wbrasington

Show me ONE example of a credible analyst raising estimates two months into a quarter, and then raising them again BY FIFTY PERCENT within thirty days.

One time.

One example.

Ever.

Doesn't happen, it's crazy talk.

While you are probably right, I think those numbers thrown out originally were not meant to be actual numbers. The were a frustrated knock on the apparent one-upmanship among analysts who seem to be unable to contain their optimism at times...

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by Bageljoey

While you are probably right, I think those numbers thrown out originally were not meant to be actual numbers. The were a frustrated knock on the apparent one-upmanship among analysts who seem to be unable to contain their optimism at times...

Agreed, but the numbers used are just crazy.
It might be easier to actually say it the way YOU said it.

I disagree with what you're saying, but it is not crazy.

The reason I disagree, is you can find as many Fud-meisters that do the one-upmanship game going the other way. One after another, reporting on problems and talking the company down. (not out-doing each with lower and lower numbers, just with each having to do their fear story)

The sales numbers quoted by reputable guys, are pretty steady.
If you just stick your finger in the wind, on a message board somewhere, you would find lots of talk about how the economy was going to kill off Apples normal back to school sales. (or at least make it such a low margin event as to hurt their stock) Some of this comes off Apples own attempt to talk down future estimates.
The people that were talking back to school sales down, are the same ones that talked Apple down because of the SJ back-dating issue, the SJ health issue, and they were even the ones that said Apple moving to Intel would just make Apple into another PC maker that Dell would kill. (like all the rest)
The reputable guys are pretty stable.
The Fudsters are not stable, but are consistent.
The Fans of Apple are consistent also on the high side.
If you pay attention to the trends, you will find the Fud guys make their mark when Apple talks down future numbers in their cc. Usually, the guys like Munster that know what they are doing are silent for a while as they look through things and try to figure out how much of what Apple says is true and how much is just a damper. (lower margins was probably because Apple knew the Touch give-away was a little harder on margins than the prior year Nano give-away)
You get your Fud from your fud guys.
Your pump from you pumpers.
You never get anyone so far off that they completely damage their credibility in the open public. (even though some are know to be clueless by those of us with an attention span longer than one week)

When Apple tanks after the 2 PM conference call (not 5PM) it is usually because they say something themselves to set it off, NOT because of a run-up that's overdone or expectations that are overheated. Just my experience telling me that Apple usually provide a damper for expectations and that provides the shock.
(for anyone with a serious issue with this, run the 5 year chart on Apple and then get over it)

[Cubert]

I can remember the days not too long ago when Apple struggled to keep Mac sales above the one million mark!

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by TheCrow

Oh no! More good news! Down goes the stock. Every time something comes out that sounds fabulous for Apple, the stock inexplicably tanks. I just don't get it.

The "news" would have only had an impact on the stock if it was a surprise to anyone. As it is, everyone knows Apple is selling a ton of Macs, so today Apple stock is moved by the trend of the broader market, which is generally down.

I thought that was pretty obvious.

[cameronj]

Time to lay off the caffeine eh?

Originally Posted by wbrasington

Agreed, but the numbers used are just crazy.
It might be easier to actually say it the way YOU said it.

I disagree with what you're saying, but it is not crazy.

The reason I disagree, is you can find as many Fud-meisters that do the one-upmanship game going the other way. One after another, reporting on problems and talking the company down. (not out-doing each with lower and lower numbers, just with each having to do their fear story)

The sales numbers quoted by reputable guys, are pretty steady.
If you just stick your finger in the wind, on a message board somewhere, you would find lots of talk about how the economy was going to kill off Apples normal back to school sales. (or at least make it such a low margin event as to hurt their stock) Some of this comes off Apples own attempt to talk down future estimates.
The people that were talking back to school sales down, are the same ones that talked Apple down because of the SJ back-dating issue, the SJ health issue, and they were even the ones that said Apple moving to Intel would just make Apple into another PC maker that Dell would kill. (like all the rest)
The reputable guys are pretty stable.
The Fudsters are not stable, but are consistent.
The Fans of Apple are consistent also on the high side.
If you pay attention to the trends, you will find the Fud guys make their mark when Apple talks down future numbers in their cc. Usually, the guys like Munster that know what they are doing are silent for a while as they look through things and try to figure out how much of what Apple says is true and how much is just a damper. (lower margins was probably because Apple knew the Touch give-away was a little harder on margins than the prior year Nano give-away)
You get your Fud from your fud guys.
Your pump from you pumpers.
You never get anyone so far off that they completely damage their credibility in the open public. (even though some are know to be clueless by those of us with an attention span longer than one week)

When Apple tanks after the 2 PM conference call (not 5PM) it is usually because they say something themselves to set it off, NOT because of a run-up that's overdone or expectations that are overheated. Just my experience telling me that Apple usually provide a damper for expectations and that provides the shock.
(for anyone with a serious issue with this, run the 5 year chart on Apple and then get over it)

[Booga]

Yeah, ok, I exaggerated. No one has estimated 50% more Macs than actually delivered. In fact Mac estimates tend to be fairly accurate. But last Christmas, many estimated 15% more iPods than actually shipped and were setting AAPL price targets higher and higher as the stock market went lower and lower.

For that quarter:
American Technology Research 12/4/07 24-25M iPods, 2.3M Macs, ~<2M iPhones, $1.63/share on $9.4B, 33% GM, PT $210
Bear Stearns 12/7/07 25M iPods, 2.2M Macs, 2.13M iPhones, PT $243-$249
UBS 12/17/07 17% growth in iPods, 2.24M Macs, 2.1M iPhones, $1.56/share on $9.42B, PT $235
Goldman Sachs 01/04/08, $1.60/share, PT $205-$220
Needham & Co 01/04/08, PT $235
Piper Jaffray 01/14/08, 24-25M iPods, 2.3M Macs, 2.2M iPhones, $1.73/share on $9.73B, 33% GM, PT $250
American Technology Research 01/16/08 PT $210

Actual 01/22/08: 22.1M iPods, 2.3M Macs, 2.3M iPhones, $1.76/share on $9.6B
All-time high AAPL close: $202.96
Current AAPL: $174.28

[amac4me]

Can somebody say "switchers"

[ktappe]

Originally Posted by wbrasington

Show me ONE example of a credible analyst raising estimates two months into a quarter, and then raising them again BY FIFTY PERCENT within thirty days.

This is the 2nd time in this thread you've mis-read a post and ranted about your misinterpretation. First you claimed the OP said that 3 million had already been sold, when he made no such claim. YOU re-read his post, don't tell him to re-read. Now you claim I said that an analyst would raise his own estimates when in fact I said that analysts would try to outdo each other by raising estimates. That is, the analyst who said 3M will stick to it, but another, seeing what he predicted, may well attempt to get some headlines and make a higher prediction.

Read before you rant.

[EyeNsteinNo]

The 4.2% share is world wide. I would gess the North American market share is around 14%. Any one know?

BTW, Bill Gates has been using mac's for 24 years now, price was never a issue for him. More and more people perceive you get extra valve with a mac (who don't a low budget too meet).

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by EyeNsteinNo

The 4.2% share is world wide. I would gess the North American market share is around 14%. Any one know?

It was 14% for the month of February 2008, but I think the latest poll shows 8.5% for the 2md calendar year quarter of 2008.

• http://www.appleinsider.com/articles..._february.html
• http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...pc_vendor.html

[thompr]

Originally Posted by Constable Odo

What bugs the heck out of me is that Apple is doing far better than it's peers and gets no reward for that. Why don't investors just jump on the Apple streak and make some money?

Apple P/E is double that of its competitors. If you don't know what that means, it means that the price of one share of Apple is double what it would be if Apple was performing at the same earnings growth levels as the other guys. THAT is the reward. Unfortunately, if you waited until the past year to buy in, then you haven't seen much joy. Also unfortunately, if your investment horizon is less than about a year, it is unclear whether you will make a profit in AAPL at all. This train is going higher when Wall Street can almost smell unaccounted-for money rolling in, not when they can just speculate about it. (Speculation is what got us to this high P/E to begin with. Performance to date has just been validation of past bets, not proof for the future.)

My investment horizon happens to be 10 - 20 years, and I believe that in that timeframe Apple (the company) is going to have unbelievable success in numerous markets and that AAPL (the stock) will rise along with it, but with a zig-zag path that is quite inscrutable.

Originally Posted by Constable Odo

Doesn't it always seem like no matter how much Apple sells, WS is always expecting higher. I don't quite understand why this happens quarter after quarter.

What a high P/E indicates is that the investors have high hopes for Apple to grow its earnings in the future. Basically, people are willing to pay a little more now because they believe that Apple's growth will eventually justify it. In even more basic terms, the high price is caused by high expectations. The very day that expectations for Apple are reduced is the very day that the stock price will get pummeled. Stock price is the truest barometer of expectations.

So be careful what you ask for. The high expectations come with the territory.

Thompson

[kim kap sol]

Originally Posted by Booga

We're still a month from the quarter's end and two from quarterly results. If they're saying 3M now, analysts will be estimating about 4.5M by the time the quarter ends, and when Apple sells 3.2M the stock will tank...

Nah. AAPL stocks only tank when Apple exceeds expectations.

[freakboy]

The next 5 years could be huge for apple. Vista has tanked and M$ has stated that their next OS will NOT be backward compatible. They're going to break their own monopoly. Once people have to make a clear choice between two new platforms, Macs will look a lot better.

Up until now, people have had a lot of money tied up in windows (software and hardware) post vista, M$ is ending that. Apple's products have never been more competitive and are pretty much superior in every way except cost.

One thing peopl aren't talking about .. and it's been a huge block for apple .. marketshare. Companies won't be able to afford to not port their software to the mac. The upsides for this are truly fantastic for all of us users.

More software = double plus good.

[ThePixelDoc]

Originally Posted by AHeneen

I think we can all agree that most Macs are competitively priced when it comes to the hardware. But when it comes to the AVERAGE PC buyer (not those with money or those in IT, business, the arts, or science) but the blue collar workers, the healthcare professionals, the education field (which is slowly changing), or the poorest among us...I just don't see the Windows waning so quickly. I'd imagine the least amount of time for Windows to become a memory would be 8-10 years...and that's IF Apple expands their lineup AND includes some cheap models. How can Apple completely overtake the industry when their cheapest notebook is $1099 (an doesn't even burn DVDs like some $500 laptops do?) and the cheapest desktop is $599 (not including a monitor, keyboard, or mouse)??????? I would not be surprised if 75% of PCs sold are ones which cost less that $1000!

Again, this is NOT to say that Apple products aren't worth the money...it's just that most who buy PCs do so for the cost (and of course inertia and ignorance play a part). Also, many industries are PC-centric. I for one, am an engineer and there is only 1 CAD software which runs on my Mac...but since it's not one which is widely used and not compatible with others, I am stuck using AutoCAD via Windows/BootCamp. Another example would be healthcare...has anyone ever seen a Mac used in the healthcare field?? Not just that, but many machines (from ATMs, self-checkouts, etc.) run a special type of Windows. Also 99% of computers in public schools are PCs, why?...because they're inexpensive. While there have always been a few Macs around most schools, PCs are king. Of course software will be developed for OS X in these industries if Macs start to rule...but most people don't buy a new computer every year!! Many companies, almost all schools, and a large minority of people keep their computers for at least 5 years.

While I certainly don't want to seem too critical (I love my MacBook Pro and will never buy a PC), but we must admit there are many hurdles before the world opens their eyes to the greatness of Macs. I would love to see the day Macs rule...but my pessimistic side doesn't see that happening that soon!

I've said it before, and once again, The Mac is the Porsche of the computing industry. Not everyone has one, or can afford one... but almost anyone would love to have one!

Leave the enterprise to Windows... or better yet, let them make the change to Linux... a far better platform for industrial work. Steve has always loved everything entertainment... and/or consumer oriented machines creating it, or connecting to it to the content. I for one hope Apple continues with this strategy, with or without Steve. Leave the home-spun, industry-specific, analysis software, etc. to "dumb and cheap" machines. Can you imagine your local Police or Fire dept. or Post office using a Mac? Ever? No. But a ported version of their software on a Linux-flavored box, absolutely.

As for the average PC user... they ARE starting to get it, and some are taking a look at Linux (Ubuntu mostly) slowly but surely for simple tasks like Web and Mail. Then they start to lust after a Mac for more advanced things, as well as the experience, also because of the Halo effect of iTunes and the iPhone.

Just a dumb idea really, but if Apple wanted to really kill MS, just give a silent hand to the dev of a special Apple-flavored Linux version. Even better than (the very stupid idea!) of opening up Leopard, or future versions of Mac OSX, to be installed on any PC. Give people something to start with, then to lust for or move up to. However, truthfully, I don't think Steve want's to see Windows die. Personally, as a Mac user for over 20 years, while I've entertained the thought many a time... I still don't think it would be good, or actually help Apple all that much.

And seriously, do we want those "average PC people " here on these boards???

[delreyjones]

Originally Posted by thompr

Apple P/E is double that of its competitors.
Thompson

Excellent point. And my guess is that in the next two years, Apple's E will triple while its P/E is cut in half, which will still make us long-term investers winners.

[Tiffy]

Steve Jobs often says that its business model is more Porsche than General Motors. He prefers a small market share with high margins than a large market share with low margins (or even loose money). The difficulty is that contrary to the car industry, the PC industry need software, created by 3rd parties. And it is difficult to attract them if your market share is too low. So the question for Apple is : which minimum/maximum market share can it reach, keeping high margins & attracting developers at the same time ? min 2/max 5% ? min 4/max 10% ? min 7/max 25% ?

[MacTel]

Originally Posted by zunx

The day people know about the Mac (say, 25% market share for Mac), Windows will be history in three years. Windows is only maintained by inertia and ignorance.

Actually I predict the Mac and Windows systems will be replaced by the PDA phone (e.g. iPhone). The processing power, graphics, memory, storage, etc will be enough to wirelessly hook-up keyboard, mouse, printer, and monitor to use as a full sized system. Cloud computing (e.g. MobileMe) will backup our important files and maintain our critical information and history.

The iPhone is the future but people won't realize this until probably the 4th generation. At least those in the U.S. won't. Those in Japan already embrace this idea.