Analyst braces clients of "underwhelming" Apple event

[AppleInsider]

American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu put out a call to clients on Friday, saying they should be prepared for a slight letdown at Apple's event next Tuesday unless chief executive Steve Jobs pulls a rabbit from his black turtleneck.

"While there is always room for surprise, it seems this event may be somewhat underwhelming versus previous expectations and events," he wrote. "Over the past several days, Apple shares have pulled back as expectations have likely come down."

More specifically, Wu said his check into the company's supply chain have turned up no evidence to suggest a major hardware revelation will take place at the event, which "may be viewed as disappointing" given that some investors previously had high hopes for major Mac-related announcements.

Instead, he sees a "modestly redesigned 4th generation iPod nano and slimmer 2nd generation iPod touch with lower price points and higher storage capacities," but isn't expecting radical changes to the iPod portfolio given the great success and extensive refinement the media players have already undergone.

The analyst maintains that the company's MacBook Pro and MacBook are due for refreshes with more radical redesigns, but aren't likely to be unveiled at Tuesday's event as the focus appears to be on its non-Mac businesses.

"In addition, we are picking up that MacBook Air could see a minor refresh and potential price cut to increase its value proposition as build plans have slowed from earlier robust levels as customers have opted for MacBook or MacBook Pro instead," he wrote.

Some potential "wild card" announcements that could boost sentiment surrounding the event could include "an advanced AppleTV with DVR and TV tuner capabilities" or "new touch form factors (iPod-Mac hybrid) with larger screens," he added.

The AmTech analyst maintained his Buy rating and $220 price target on shares of the Cupertino-based electronics maker, vouching his belief that the company remains the best play in the digital home market and that penetration levels of its Mac and iPhone business segments remain opportunistically low.

"The disturbance in the macroeconomic environment is within lower-income demographics and financial institutions with exposure and impact to overall liquidity," he wrote. "This could certainly spread, but we believe Apple's business will remain strong in the near- to medium-term. Enough high-end consumers are still buying tech, though commodities inflation could pressure future margins."

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[Enigmafan420]

It is down over $15 from a few days ago-and this on news that they may have sold 7(!) million iPhone 3Gs already-it looks to be another record MAC quarter-and the Christmas shopping season is right around the corner.

Whatever, APPL investors buy on rumors and sell on facts-even good ones?!?

[sapporobaby]

Does anyone listen to Shaw Wu? He is about as bad as Prince McClean.

[Enigmafan420]

Originally Posted by sapporobaby

Does anyone listen to Shaw Wu? He is about as bad as Prince McClean.

Who is Prince McClean?

[freeny]

Ironically, any expectations that were assumed were manufactured by these same analysts

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by Enigmafan420

It is down over $15 from a few days ago-and this on news that they may have sold 7(!) million iPhone 3Gs already-it looks to be another record MAC quarter-and the Christmas shopping season is right around the corner.

Whatever, APPL investors buy on rumors and sell on facts-even good ones?!?

I think if you're really paying attention to anyone saying they may have already sold 7 million iPhone 3Gs....... you're making a mistake.
If that's the rumor you're looking at, then you'll be willing to buy on the rumor and want to sell when you get the facts.

The phone is going great, but 7 million is crazy.

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by sapporobaby

Does anyone listen to Shaw Wu? He is about as bad as Prince McClean.

1) I am (sort of) OK with some occasional negative news about AAPL, since that allows for upside surprises. There somehow always seems to be a little too much good news impounded into Apple's price.

2) What's with this guy's writing style. Sheesh. He says: "...disturbance in the macroeconomic environment is within lower-income demographics and financial institutions with exposure and impact to overall liquidity" when he means to say "... the current economic slowdown only affects poorer people and investment firms with junk in their portfolios."

[nace33]

I really hope that if Apple does allow for DVR that they do so by utilizing the USB port on existing AppleTvs.

I really think that the iPods need wifi. There is just something that is satisfying about the idea of placing your iPod in its charging dock and having it sync. Of course a killer feature would be to include front row so when you hook it into the universal dock you basically have an AppleTv, but I realize that will never happen.

My final concern is that I am worried that all we are going to see is a new shell for the nano, an iPod Touch that looks like an iPhone 3G and maybe a lower prices. Maybe that should be enough and I am being overly demanding, but it just seems like it has been a while (Jan. 07) since we saw Apple sparkle. Maybe I am going to have to wait till Jan 09?

[merdhead]

Originally Posted by sapporobaby

Does anyone listen to Shaw Wu? He is about as bad as Prince McClean.

I think you should apologise to Mr Wu for that comment.

[Enigmafan420]

Originally Posted by wbrasington

I think if you're really paying attention to anyone saying they may have already sold 7 million iPhone 3Gs....... you're making a mistake.
If that's the rumor you're looking at, then you'll be willing to buy on the rumor and want to sell when you get the facts.

The phone is going great, but 7 million is crazy.

I realize that that number is all speculation-but it is based on some pretty decent anecdotal evidence. While it may be too high, I think Apple's "hope" to sell 3 million is too low.

[mebbert]

I doubt that this event will be as bad as Wu is saying. Steve is too smart to have an event that will do nothing more than introduce minor upgrades.

It won't be of iPhone proportions, but this event has always been a more mild one.

[sapporobaby]

Originally Posted by merdhead

I think you should apologise to Mr Wu for that comment.

Nice.

Mr. Wu, oh great knower of things and usual incorrect pronouncement sayer, please except my most humble apologies for the comparison to Prince McClean.

[Mr Underhill]

Originally Posted by sapporobaby

Does anyone listen to Shaw Wu? He is about as bad as Prince McClean.

TUT TUT!!

[Galley]

I don't think we'll see anything "jaw-dropping" announced on Tuesday, but you never know.

[merdhead]

Originally Posted by sapporobaby

Nice.

Mr. Wu, oh great knower of things and usual incorrect pronouncement sayer, please except my most humble apologies for the comparison to Prince McClean.

You are a true gentleman.

[Hattig]

What we will see in my end-of-work-week befuddled opinion:

New iPod nano
New iPod touch
Slightly cheaper Shuffle
iTunes 8 announcement, but "coming in October"
HD TV shows on iTunes "coming in October"
Blather about iPod and iTunes sales, and some iTunes App Store software packages

So therefore:

No new Macs
No iPod tablet or Mac Tablet
No subscription music service

[merdhead]

Originally Posted by Enigmafan420

Who is Prince McClean?

Someone who talks a lot of shit.

[crocodile]

If the special event is just a refresh of the existing iPod range with a cursory makeover, then why even bother with a special event?

Steve Jobs is a busy man and I doubt he would make time to hold a special event if it is no more than a routine refresh of the iPod line-up. So I wonder if there isn't a trick up Apple's sleeve?

We are well overdue for revised MacBooks and although everyone is expecting them to come after September 15th when the current back to college promotion ends, and possibly even later on in October, maybe Apple will surprise everybody.

On the other hand it could be a completely new product, the iTouch, or a dramatically revised piece of software with significant potential, iTunes 8. Whatever it is I think it won't be "underwhelming".

Despite various technical issues the launches of both iPhone 3G and MobileMe have been resounding successes. They have genuinely offered something better than what went before. So I feel optimistic.

I really do want new MacBooks to arrive, though. Everyone has been talking about them all year.

[merdhead]

Originally Posted by Hattig

What we will see in my end-of-work-week befuddled opinion:

New iPod nano
New iPod touch
Slightly cheaper Shuffle
iTunes 8 announcement, but "coming in October"
HD TV shows on iTunes "coming in October"
Blather about iPod and iTunes sales, and some iTunes App Store software packages

So therefore:

No new Macs
No iPod tablet or Mac Tablet
No subscription music service

I think you nailed it there. I would also add: No mid-size Mac Pro.

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by freeny

Ironically, any expectations that were assumed were manufactured by these same analysts

Excellent point. I'm looking forward to aapl creeping up instead of down between now and Christmas. Wall Street seems intent on ignoring Apple's performance and focusing on manufactured worries.

[merdhead]

Originally Posted by walshbj

Excellent point. I'm looking forward to aapl creeping up instead of down between now and Christmas. Wall Street seems intent on ignoring Apple's performance and focusing on manufactured worries.

Don't bet on it. Looks like this xmas will not be good, since everyone in the US is broke, homeless, losing their jobs, unable to fill their tank and having what money they do have eroded by global inflation.

Other than that Q4 looks good.

[Enigmafan420]

Originally Posted by merdhead

Someone who talks a lot of shit.

I goggled him-is it that extreme wrestler type?

[Thomaspin]

The only thing that matters is Jobs's appearance. if he hasn't fattened up some, that's all she wrote for the stock.

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by merdhead

Don't bet on it. Looks like this xmas will not be good, since everyone in the US is broke, homeless, losing their jobs, unable to fill their tank and having what money they do have eroded by global inflation.

Other than that Q4 looks good.

Yeah, but it seems like it's been that way for a while. And people always seem to be willing to go deeper into debt at the Apple Store, especially at Christmas. Despite everything you point out I still expect another record-breaking quarter. And the iPhone's spread into other countries could be a new halo effect for Macs.

Everything you say is valid. But people need computers, MS is dropping the ball, college students crave Macs, iPhone is revolutionary, and iPods are a new way of life for lots of people. Combine that with the hundreds of millions of people yet to switch and there's a lot of upside to aapl.

[holywarrior007]

I would be really disappointed if Apple announces only the redesigned iPods etc on next Tuesday. MacBooks are long overdue for updates. I am dying to buy a new MacBook Pro with some new hardware. Steve don't hold special events only to show the new design of iPods. Do something new. Don't join the herd of some stupid companies.

[pk22901]

@Sapporobaby and Merdhead - You guys carry an incredible grudge for Prince McClean (aka Daniel Elger w/ personal blog at roughlydrafted.com). What's up?

Daniel writes his most intellectually demanding pure technical overview/strategy columns at roughlydrafted as 'Daniel Elger'. Writing in AppleInsider as Prince McClean he publishes simpler articles with less attitude towards Microsoft.

Daniel's work is clear, detailed, accurate, encyclopedic, and VERY ADVANTAGEOUS to know if you're an Apple investor.

It's a shame bozos like you two want to shout him down.

Is this a personal grudge as in, maybe he owes you money? Whatever; You guys don't deserve the 'ink' you use to attack Daniel.

No offense meant, but it's your (angry) agenda as I see it.

Perhaps you might grow up, calm down, and let Daniel speak to the 'rest of us'. I think we'd all appreciate your courtesy.

[iCarbon]

Originally Posted by Thomaspin

The only thing that matters is Jobs's appearance. if he hasn't fattened up some, that's all she wrote for the stock.

Actually, that's what I think the whole point of this event is -- they've had Steve in super-fat camp (not the thinning kind) for a few months, and having thickened him up they need to trot him out and let us check out his healthiness.

otherwise, this may be the first time I've ever felt any sense of agreement with Prince Wu.

[Messiah]

As usual, everyone is whipping themselves into a frenzy...

At this point, it doesn't really matter what gets announced, people are going to be disappointed – even if Elvis Presley, makes a surprise appearance on stage and personally announces a $99 Mac Pro with complementary 42" Cinema Display.

I wouldn't be surprised if we simply see a speed bumped MacBook Pro in the existing enclosure...

[sapporobaby]

Originally Posted by pk22901

@Sapporobaby and Merdhead - You guys carry an incredible grudge for Prince McClean (aka Daniel Elger w/ personal blog at roughlydrafted.com). What's up?

Daniel writes his most intellectually demanding pure technical overview/strategy columns at roughlydrafted as 'Daniel Elger'. Writing in AppleInsider as Prince McClean he publishes simpler articles with less attitude towards Microsoft.

Daniel's work is clear, detailed, accurate, encyclopedic, and VERY ADVANTAGEOUS to know if you're an Apple investor.

It's a shame bozos like you two want to shout him down.

Is this a personal grudge as in, maybe he owes you money? Whatever; You guys don't deserve the 'ink' you use to attack Daniel.

No offense meant, but it's your (angry) agenda as I see it.

Perhaps you might grow up, calm down, and let Daniel speak to the 'rest of us'. I think we'd all appreciate your courtesy.

Welcome to the Prince McClean fan club. Pick up your pompoms at the door.

By the way, there are more than me and Merdhead that have a problem with his accuracy. Even in this very forum.

If I still have it, I will post the exchange between your hero and Jeremy Horowitz of iLounge that slammed your supreme leader for his "accuracy" in reporting.

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by pk22901

No offense meant........

Perhaps you might grow up.....

Takes some real stones to say no offense is meant when you lecture someone to grow up.

[sapporobaby]

Originally Posted by Messiah

As usual, everyone is whipping themselves into a frenzy...

At this point, it doesn't really matter what gets announced, people are going to be disappointed – even if Elvis Presley, makes a surprise appearance on stage and personally announces a $99 Mac Pro with complementary 42" Cinema Display.

I wouldn't be surprised if we simply see a speed bumped MacBook Pro in the existing enclosure...

For sure. I would settle for a better working iPhone, because right now, I have more iPod than phone.

[wbrasington]

Originally Posted by Messiah

As usual, everyone is whipping themselves into a frenzy...

At this point, it doesn't really matter what gets announced, people are going to be disappointed – even if Elvis Presley, makes a surprise appearance on stage and personally announces a $99 Mac Pro with complementary 42" Cinema Display.

I wouldn't be surprised if we simply see a speed bumped MacBook Pro in the existing enclosure...

I'd be floored if they started down the music path in an announcement and then use the event to roll out small incremental changes in any computer they make.....

This isn't going to be the only show between now and the lead up to the holiday season, trust me.

[sausage&Onion]

Originally Posted by mebbert

Steve is too smart to have an event that will do nothing more than introduce minor upgrades.

What? Are you kidding? He does this crap all the time. Info about the SDK that was coming out in a few months, lame ipod updates before this.

[sapporobaby]

Originally Posted by merdhead

Don't bet on it. Looks like this xmas will not be good, since everyone in the US is broke, homeless, losing their jobs, unable to fill their tank and having what money they do have eroded by global inflation.

Other than that Q4 looks good.

No worries Merdhead.

I currently live near Russia, I balanced my check book, and organized a community play. I will be submitting my name for VP. I will fight to make sure you get the Mac's you need.

[iVlad]

That's how rumors kill events like these as well as Apple stock. (no offense to this site though, i love 100% of it)

[sausage&Onion]

Originally Posted by holywarrior007

I would be really disappointed if Apple announces only the redesigned iPods etc on next Tuesday.

Sorry man, I hate to say it, but prepare to be disappointed.

[satchmo]

Umm...how long has Wu been targeting this mythical $220 mark? It must be over a year since he been so bullish, yet it languishes at $160.

IMO, Apple needs to brace itself for an even greater downturn in the economy. The iPod Touch will likely see a huge price drop. But any new Nano needs a price reduction as well. And don't get me started on that Shuffle. That needs to be like $25.

[retiarius]

Originally Posted by iCarbon

Actually, that's what I think the whole point of this event is -- they've had Steve in super-fat camp (not the thinning kind) for a few months.

There's only so much fat a vegan/pescatarean personal chef can sneak into a diet.
100% cocoa fat chocolate chip cookies? Beer-battered catfish fried in peanut oil?
Sturgeon egg sushi? Or are we talking an around-the-clock emergency regimen
of whale blubber, washed down with avocado smoothies?

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by sapporobaby

Does anyone listen to Shaw Wu? He is about as bad as Prince McClean.

Jeepers!

I feel bad sometimes about some of the grumpy things that I post here but at least I have an argument when I do. If you have nothing to offer other than a one line personal attack, maybe you should just not post, M'kay?

I know you have nothing to support your dig at "Prince McClean" because I have read every single article posted under the name and every article of Roughly Drafted for the last two years.

You can't just make crap up about people who know more than you and expect to get away with ....

wait, .... Are you John McCain?

[jittery jimmy]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Some potential "wild card" announcements that could boost sentiment surrounding the event could include "an advanced AppleTV with DVR and TV tuner capabilities" or "new touch form factors (iPod-Mac hybrid) with larger screens," he added.

Yep, it'd appear that this guy is way off the mark. This guy should know that Jobs is not interested in competing against the Cable TV monopoly or introducing a near-defunct idea like an over-the-air TV tuner.

A DVR is a remote possibility, particularly if offered by a 3rd party. A TV tuner is never going to be an Apple product.

I see movement in iTunes, iPod, iPhone, and Apple TV. The hardware is just about perfect - add GPS and audio I/O to the Touch and incremental changes to memory and it's all about perfect.

Everything else is a software problem. That's what Apple needs now - they have an awesome HW platform already.