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#1 |
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Kasper's Automated Slave
Join Date: Nov 1997
Posts: 6,151
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Steve Jobs on Apple's cash, NetBooks, Apple TV, and cheap PCs
Apple chief executive Steve Jobs made a surprise appearance on the company's fourth quarter conference call Tuesday and fielded a variety of questions that revealed further insight into company's ongoing product strategies. Specifically, he made remarks about Apple's position on the emerging NetBook space, how the troubled global economy impacts the company, the state of Apple TV, and how Apple views the prospects for $500 desktop PCs.
The hidden, outstanding success of the iPhone Jobs announced the release of non-GAAP financial results that expose the hidden, deferred revenues related to the subscription accounting used for the iPhone and Apple TV. The numbers are "truly stunning" Jobs said. "By eliminating subscription accounting, adjusted sales for the quarter were $11.68 billion, 48% higher than the reported revenue of $7.9 billion, while adjusted income was $2.44 billion, 115% higher than the reported net income of $1.14 billion. "Adjusted net income that is more than double our reported income," he added. "If this isn't stunning, I don't know what is. All due to the incredible success of the iPhone 3G." Jobs also announced two milestones related to its phone business. "The first is that Apple beat RIM," Jobs said, noting that "RIM is a good company that makes good products. And so it is surprising that after only fifteen months on the market that we could outsell them in any quarter." "But even more remarkable is this," he continued, "measured by revenues, Apple's become the world's third largest mobile phone supplier. I know this sounds crazy, but it's true. As measured in revenues, not units, Apple has become the third largest mobile phone supplier." "Let's look at the ranking. Nokia is clearly number one with $12.7 billion. Samsung number two at 5.9 billion. Apple is number three at 4.6 billion, Sony Ericsson is number four with 4.2 billion. LG number five at 3.4 billion, Motorola number six with 3.2 billion and RIM number seven at 2.1 billion. Pretty amazing." Lots of cash to throw around Apple added another $3.7 billion in cash during the quarter, so it now has $24.5 billion "safely in the bank, and zero debt" Jobs noted. He spoke of "extraordinary opportunities" for companies in a time of economic downturn "with the cash to take advantage of them, like Apple does," but wouldn't clarify how that might relate to any specific strategies, including new efforts to acquire other companies. Jobs did say the company's cash position "provides us tremendous stability and the ability to invest our way thorough this downturn. This is what we did during the last downturn. We increased R&D investments and created some of our best new products and businesses, like the Apple retail stores for one." When asked how much more expensive the aluminum unibody was over conventional construction, and whether the 35% decline in aluminum pricing would show up in Apple's financials, Jobs answered, "We'd certainly sell our new MacBooks cheaper if we just delivered them with a block of aluminum. But we have to machine that aluminum, and it's a fairly precision operation. So the cost of aluminum matters some, but is not a dominant cost." Netbooks, iPhones, and the troubled economy Asked about PC prices in the current economy and the new netbook category that is "getting a lot of hype", Jobs said "well, again, this particular downturn is not creating a market of cheaper computers. That market has existed for some time. And there are parts of that market that we choose not to play in." "I think that when people want a product of the class that we make, over and over again people have done the price comparisons and we're actually quite competitive. So we choose to be in some segments of the market and we choose not to be in certain segments of the market. "So the question is, 'is the downturn going to drive some of our customers to those lower segments of the market place to buy lesser products. "I will be surprised if that happens in large numbers. And I actually think that there are still a tremendous number of customers that we don't have, in the Windows world, or in the other 99% of the phone market that we don't have, who would like to and can afford to buy Apple products. "We're not tremendously worried. As we look at the netbook category, that's a nascent category. As best as we can tell, there's not a lot of them being sold. You know, one of our entrants into that category if you will is the iPhone, for browsing the Internet, and doing email and all the other things that a netbook lets you do. And being connected via the cellular network wherever you are, an iPhone is a pretty good solution for that, and it fits in your pocket. "But we'll wait and see how that nascent category evolves, and we have got some pretty interesting ideas if it does evolve," Jobs said. Asked how well the iPhone will do in the troubled economy, Jobs replied, "We'll be glad to tell you how it does." Earlier in the call, Jobs said, "none of our competitors can deliver products in this class," and noted that cash strapped customers, "while they might postpone purchases, they are more likely to delay than switch." Cheap PCs Asked whether users will be likely to see a cheaper computer from Apple, Jobs answered, "I think what we want to do is deliver an increasing level of value to these customers." "There are some customers which we chose not to serve," he added. "We don't know how to make a $500 computer that's not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that. But we can continue to deliver greater and greater value to those customers that we choose to serve. And there's a lot of them." "We've seen great success by focusing on certain segments of the market and not trying to be everything to everybody. So I think you can expect us to stick with that winning strategy and continue to try to add more and more value to those products in those customer bases we choose to serve." Apple TV Asked about the "digital living room opportunity and how it relates to Apple TV," Jobs replied, "well again I think the whole category is still a hobby right now. I don't think anybody has succeeded at it. And actually the experimentation has slowed down. A lot of the early companies that were trying things have faded away." "So I have to say that given the economic conditions, given the venture capital outlook and stuff, I continue to believe that it will be a hobby in 2009." Jobs was also asked about Tablet computing and touch screens and whether Apple has any products in the pipeline, to which he replied, "I think we have such creative people that are looking a lot of things, but I can't really talk about any of the future products we're working on, I'm sorry." iPhone Nano When asked why Apple only has one product offering in the vast smartphone market and what further opportunities for innovation or "other market opportunities within that market" Apple might have, Jobs replied, "I wasn't alive then, but from everything I've heard, Babe Ruth only had one home run. He just kept hitting it over and over again. "I think that the traditional game in the phone market has been to produce a voice phone in a hundred different varieties. But as software starts to become the differentiating technology of this product category, I think that people are going to find that a hundred variations presented to a software developer is not very enticing. And most of the competitors in this phone business do not really have much experience in a software platform business." "So we're extremely comfortable with our product strategy going forward, and we approach it as a software platform company, which is pretty different than most of our competitors." Additional Coverage Apple profits rise 26% on sales of 2.6M Macs, 6.8M iPhones Notes of interest for Apple's Q4 2008 results call Apple iPhone 3G sales surpass RIM's Blackberry iPhone App Store continues to exceed iTunes song sales growth |
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#2 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 134
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Steve tickles me. He's got a very amusing rap for such a bright fellow. Long live, Steve!
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#3 |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Walnut Creek, CA
Posts: 1,118
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![]() Haaaaa, sanity! |
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#4 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,437
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#5 | ||
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 10,457
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Quote:
I believe that Netbooks are a fantastic idea and that Apple will eventually be forced to serve this market. iPhone is nice but there is a substantial market for a real keyboard and larger screen. Apple's current USB only Macbook strengthens the netbook appeal because if USB is good enough for Apple's laptops as the primary connectivity then Netbooks need not offer that much more connectivity either. http://www.amazon.com/Acer-8-9-inch-...4636851&sr=8-1 Quote:
I eventually plan to see Netbooks with WWAN built right into the chipset and using faster processors. They may as well add cellular options along with the WWAN. I think this market is only Nascent because the mobile Atom chips are new but I expect this to be an explosive area for computer companies. Typical Apple MO is to downplay markets (flash based digital music players) until they're ready to promote a product and then suddently the category is a hot seller. AppleTV - of course it's a hobby. It's functionality is pretty basic and it actually offers less functionality than say an Xbox 360 with extra software or a PS3. I still think it offers value but it's groundbreaking in no way that I can think of. |
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#6 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: la Jolla
Posts: 768
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Jobs said:
Asked about the "digital living room opportunity and how it relates to Apple TV," Jobs replied, "well again I think the whole category is still a hobby right now. I don't think anybody has succeeded at it. And actually the experimentation has slowed down. A lot of the early companies that were trying things have faded away." "So I have to say that given the economic conditions, given the venture capital outlook and stuff, I continue to believe that it will be a hobby in 2009." Too bad, It seems that next update of AppleTV will not be as robust as most of us expect. At least I hope it has external drive support, so storage can be increase.
MacPro Octo 2.8
30" & 23" Apple Cinema HD Displays PowerBook G4 550, MacBook Pro 2.2 Ipod 1G, Shuffle 2G, iPhone 3G |
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#7 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Ireland
Posts: 8,557
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Quote:
And the have the cash to make it happen.September 2009 or earlier: Apple "TV" They may not kill the 20" and 30" Cinema displays (though I believe they are going to kill the 20"), but a TV is on the cards, in the tea leaves and in their future. Like the mobile phone was for them, this too is almost unavoidable.
Collecting my SSD iMac Fry-die. :D
Last edited by Ireland; 10-21-2008 at 09:27 PM.. |
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#8 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,218
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RDF or not, this guy is a true leader.
Buy. (But only if you have the cajones to Hold.) ![]() |
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#9 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,218
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Quote:
But, I have to tell you that I am (actually my whole family is) amazed at how often I (we) end up using the little box! And how much enjoyment we get out of it. It has been $229 well-spent. |
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#10 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 134
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Quote:
It's all in the lab, HM... It's all in the lab! |
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#11 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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The netbook is taking off though, I think surprisingly well for being such a new category, to dismiss it out of hand sounds like a feint to me. IDG estimates 2M sold in EMEA last quarter, not too shabby for a category of products that didn't exist at all last year that I remember, back then it was just one guy and a few people trying to design one.
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#12 | ||
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 10,457
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Quote:
Quote:
I expect a $699-799 Apple "netbook" to hit within 18 months. |
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#13 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 73
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Remember, the minis didn't and still don't come with a monitor, keyboard or mouse. The base mini today costs $599 - $200 more for a faster processor, larger hard drive and Super Drive. Compare that with the current $500 notebooks on the market and what hardware and software they include. Then look at the repriced $999 MacBook and decide where the real value is.
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#14 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 204
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Quote:
Besides, the iPod Touch is a decent entry into the Netbook market. It is actually priced lower than most netbooks, has more storage than many of them and is well suited for portable internet access. If Apple decides to release iWorks Touch or perhaps Microsoft develops an Office Touch, it'll be a decent productivity tool. Peripherals can be sorted out by adding Wireless USB instead of space consuming physical ports. |
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#15 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 640
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#16 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 16
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Quote:
Realistically they're just going to wait it out like Sony is doing to see what happens. Sales are definitely taking off in that area, but the market has also become incredibly saturated with competitors as of late. The thing that bothers me is that Apple lets their low end rot with old designs. I mean look at the mac mini, and now they're gonna do the same with the low end macbook. How hard would it be to update these things to current chipsets? |
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#17 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 310
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They advertised it it appropriately as a low-end Mac for people that wanted to fiddle with OSX but not break the bank to do it. |
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#18 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 92
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Wow, the comments on the AppleTV were really disheartening.
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#19 |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 34
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What if there wasn't an economical downturn?
As someone else said:
Who cares about guidance... ...just look at the non-GAAP numbers. Those reflect Apple's ACTUAL sales and profits last quarter, if Apple didn't defer the iPhone revs. Sales would have been $11.7B, not $7.9B. Profit would have been $2.4B, not 1.1B. EPS would have been $2.69!!! not $1.26. Just look at those numbers. That's why free-cash flow is so high. That's why cash is being added to Apple's cash pile faster than income. If you just look at those numbers, you'll realize that Apple is one of the most profitable companies in the world, and growing like mad. That's why Apple merited a high multiple, and that's why stupid analysts just don't get it. Steve actually had to get in on the conference call to explain the non-GAAP figures to the analysts, because they've been so clueless since Apple started deferring revenues. Awesome! |
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#20 | |
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Banned
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 110
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(redacted)
Quote:
Last edited by JeffDM; 10-22-2008 at 05:16 PM.. Reason: No politics out of Political Outsider please. |
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#21 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Houston, Tx.
Posts: 686
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I sure hope we some some advancement on the Apple TV.
I love mine. Nice to listen or watch podcasts on the big screen and the movie rentals is a great feature. More and more movies appearing. I want to see forward movement here. I really think we will see some sort of crossover device. Something between a phone and a laptop. Was hoping it would be out before years end but it did not happen. ![]() The new 'books are nice but 2008 was just not a "wow" year like 2007 was with the iPhone. |
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#22 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: la Jolla
Posts: 768
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Jobs, still calling AppleTV a hobby because I think he is having a huge hard time breaking into the networks and movie studios distribution of content.
It's pretty solid that Jobs want to make iTunes the portal of all of the content in order to AppleTV becoming a successful and mass market product. The problem is the studios and networks are not buying into it and making it really hard to happen. They are worried the way Apple dominates the digital downloads for music and dictates a lot of the pricing for the same. That's why it has been so difficult for Apple to break in this market. The networks and movie studios do not want to give Apple too much power. So the struggle continues.... Meanwhile the advancement of AppleTV seems to be place on hold. Too bad, I think there is a lot of potential for that product. As for television goes, besides all the current information and market analysis that is not a good idea at the moment business wise, still AppleTV has to become a great product with mass appeal in order to expand it to new areas of hardware. Until then forget about it. If it happens, will not change dynamics of the HDTV industry and the public perception IMHO. Again AppleTV has to succeed first as stand alone product.
MacPro Octo 2.8
30" & 23" Apple Cinema HD Displays PowerBook G4 550, MacBook Pro 2.2 Ipod 1G, Shuffle 2G, iPhone 3G |
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#23 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 115
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Quote:
MacBook 13.3" • 2.0 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo • 4GB RAM • 320GB 7200 RPM HD
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#24 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Ireland
Posts: 8,557
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Quote:
Collecting my SSD iMac Fry-die. :D
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#25 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Ireland
Posts: 8,557
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Don't be disheartened; Apple are just holding their cards close to their chest with all this "hobby" talk. It's all just misdirection.
Collecting my SSD iMac Fry-die. :D
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#26 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 640
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I am thinking (hoping?) next iteration. A KB doesn't have to be 'slapped on'. It could form part of a soft wallet of some sort. Even then the package would be very small.
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#27 | |||
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 10,457
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Quote:
Apple "is" a me too company They use X86 hardware They standardize on industry standards The only thing unique about Apple is industrial design and OS X. The rest of it what they offer is replicated easily by companies like Psystar. Netbook Sales http://www.techradar.com/news/mobile...er-fist-476362 Quote:
http://technicalconclusions.wordpres...01/tablet_pcs/ Quote:
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#28 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 856
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Apple did make a "cheap" PC style Mac, it was called the Power Mac 4400 and they used a very cheap PC clone box. See how successful that was? No one wants to buy a poorly made piece-of-shit box. Dell has that market covered. The Dells we have at work are truly noisy pieces of junk boxes. I don't want Apple making something like that. I would rather spend the money for a quality made computer.
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#29 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 640
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There is no way they will let this one die. It forms an integral part of the long term strategy. With the success of iTunes the ATV is a natural extension. I think the problem is that there hasn't been a great take up so far. People generally aren't linking the net and Television. I don't think a 'killer' app or piece of hardware will change that quickly. People are still, and will be for quite a while, too used to the 'old' model. The one thing that can speed the process up is content, by which I mean rental movies. When there are ten thousand (I have no idea what the magic number is) movies available for rent, including new releases, the take up will suddenly start to increase dramatically. This could easily be a few years away, though. AppleTV is more of a service than it is a product and most people are fairly happy with the traditional service. Its a hard one to crack.
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#30 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 640
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Quote:
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#31 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 10,457
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Apple's (and other vendors) "free lunch" is over.
With Comcast instituting Bandwidth caps and the studios reluctant to put themselves into the same bind as the music studios I don't see Apple dominating video the way they do music for the reasons gugy so articulately mentioned in his post. Apple simply doesn't have the video playback device to rule them all like they had with the iPod. Sometimes I think companies chase success in other areas based on some fallacious hope that conquering another area is possible via the same methodology. Broadcast Cable Satellite Netflix/Blockbuster All represent different ways to access media and frankly downloading media doesn't offer that much of an improvement over using the VoD services from incumbent media providers. Video access is the new Gold Rush and and their are many companies panning for Gold but few will really be successful. |
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#32 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 57
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I love the way Steve disarms...
...his questioners. Where does he get the one-liners like the one about Babe Ruth? Brilliant!
As for netbooks, I saw a report that less than 1M had been sold in the US. As long as the numbers are low, Steve won't enter. It's like UMPCs, MIDs, HTPCs and now Netbooks. Apple doesn't have alot of engineers, and there's only one Steve. They can't make hundreds of products, and Steve has said so. They have to pick and choose, and they're going to pick and choose the most profitable businesses they find, where they can add their unique value. It's far more likely that Apple won't make a netbook, that dumbs down a Macbook. It's not the Apple Way. It's far more likely that Apple will take an iPhone, and grow it into a netbook, with an iTab or iDevice. Something about double the size it is now. That's where PA Semi can fit, designing a low-power cpu, based on powerpc. Powerful as a laptop, but power-miserly as a iPhone. Something like that. And, Steve said, if the netbook market takes off, they'll be watching and he has some good ideas about it. So there. It's in the research labs. |
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#33 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: la Jolla
Posts: 768
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exactly hmurchison,
This is Apple biggest hurdle. If they conquer that AppleTV will become a huge success overnight. Right now I think the device is cool, I hope for a bit more in order to buy it, but I am not dropping my satellite and DVR equipment for it yet. Still have a long way to go.
MacPro Octo 2.8
30" & 23" Apple Cinema HD Displays PowerBook G4 550, MacBook Pro 2.2 Ipod 1G, Shuffle 2G, iPhone 3G |
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#34 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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#35 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Wherever your mama is…
Posts: 919
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I put it in another thread somewhere, but I will put it here also...
I think Apple just might make a netbook, but not just a netbook... As much as I hate it, I think a convertible laptop/tablet might not be a bad idea. I am thinking a 10" touchscreen display, one that handles both multi-touch AND stylus input. Styled after the uni-body MacBook, just scaled down to a 10" model. 4GB RAM, 128GB SSD & backlit keyboard standard. Stylus stores in device, much like the stylus in a ModBook. Able to tether to an iPhone (or iPhone nano!) for 3G network access (when WiFi is not available). Internals would be somewhere between the Air and the MacBook. Obviously, this would be in the upper-mid to high end of the netbook pricing spectrum... I just don't like the idea of that pivot/swivel hinge...
The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious.
It is the source of all true art and science. Albert Einstein |
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#36 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 640
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#37 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 570
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Quote:
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Jessie Ventura + Ron Paul = USA
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#38 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 32
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The Mini is NOT a piece of junk - not now, not ever. For the few that need or want a small, quiet desktop Mac (without a screen), the Mini is perfect. But, Apple *has to* update the graphics. Let's hope...
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#39 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Dubuque, IA USA
Posts: 2,400
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Quote:
"Don't be trapped by dogma, which is living with the results of other people's thinking" -Steve Jobs. I guess he forgot to add "unless its mine."
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#40 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 32
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[re] "Apple added another $3.7 billion in cash during the quarter, so it now has $24.5 billion "safely in the bank, and zero debt" Jobs noted. He spoke of "extraordinary opportunities" for companies in a time of economic downturn "with the cash to take advantage of them, like Apple does," but wouldn't clarify how that might relate to any specific strategies, including new efforts to acquire other companies." [/re]
Apple's saving up their pennies for the big Yahoo acquisition ![]() |
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