Apple stock surges on belief MacBooks "peel away" Windows users

[AppleInsider]

Investors returned to Apple shares in force on Monday and sent the stock climbing a massive 12.5 percent after reports said Apple was likely to profit on a wave of converts to its new aluminum MacBooks.

A research note by investment analyst Yair Reiner of Oppenheimer & Co. set the blueprint for the dramatic $10.37 gain in Apple's stock over the trading day as he believed the new, unibody designs and their built-in media features were enough to attract a fresh round of buyers and persuade Reiner to raise his estimates for Apple's earnings per share during the holiday season's quarter from $1.36 to $1.39.

The one-piece metal design is alluring enough that it should "continue to peel away users from the Windows mold" despite many either being short on cash or just hesitant to buy in the current climate, he says.

In turn, JP Morgan's Mark Moskowitz was more aggressive still, boosting his own valuation from a cautious $1.29 per share to $1.38 based on the same predictions of strong performance for the MacBook line.

Both researchers are nonetheless cautious and still expect a downturn. JP Morgan and Oppenheimer alike lowered their estimates for iPhone sales, while Moskowitz has also downplayed expectations for iPods despite the usual spike in sales that comes with holiday shopping.

The launch is helped in no small part by news of additional US government aid for Citigroup, which helped the entire Dow Jones surge about $397 in Monday trading. Nonetheless, early sales data also supports the claims, with October Mac sales spiking by 28 percent in October despite the new MacBook and MacBook Pro only being made available for sale during the last half of the month.

Separately, one researcher speaking to AppleInsider has also estimated that Apple could easily blow past expectations for the quarter based on the hidden value of its deferred revenue from iPhones and a likely better-than-anticipated performance for the Mac.

[Ireland]

Oppenheimer & Co, ahem.

[solipsism]

While I'm glad to read a positive note about the new MacBook sales as Apple-based forums are inundated with a "sky is falling" attitude from the loss of FW400 (despite my feelings that this is Apple's best MB ever), the market jump today leads me to believe that any news about Apple notebooks had little to no effect on its surge.

[sikras]

The most manipulated stock I've ever seen. The shorters are getting ready to short this stock in a few days. I am taking my gain and I'm out.

It won't matter how well Apple sells anymore.

[monstrosity]

I could have told these investors ages ago the laptops would sell like hot cakes. It's not rocket science, why are these stupid investors surprised? why is anyone surprised!

[Bandersnatch]

APL has been tracking the DJIA for a while now. See the chart below.

Today was just a bullish day for all the stocks in the DJIA, and Apple fared accordingly.
The speculation that the stock went up because an analyst said MacBooks will steal market share is just BS.

[NasserAE]

The one-piece metal design is alluring enough that it should "continue to peel away users from the Windows mold" despite many either being short on cash or just hesitant to buy in the current climate, he says.

In turn, JP Morgan's Mark Moskowitz was more aggressive still, boosting his own valuation from a cautious $1.29 per share to $1.38 based on the same predictions of strong performance for the MacBook line.

Well, Good morning.. had a goodnight sleep?!

[ericblr]

Meanwhile... Microsoft's marketshare slowly starts slipping away...

[Stormchild]

I'm not sure I agree about the reason for Apple's stock price jump. It's following exactly the same trend as the NASDAQ as a whole. I would say the explanation given in this article has nothing to do with it.

[quinney]

Originally Posted by Bandersnatch

APL has been tracking the DJIA for a while now. See the chart below.

Today was just a bullish day for all the stocks in the DJIA, and Apple fared accordingly.
The speculation that the stock went up because an analyst said MacBooks will steal market share is just BS.

Frumious BS

[fraklinc]

Originally Posted by Stormchild

I'm not sure I agree about the reason for Apple's stock price jump. It's following exactly the same trend as the NASDAQ as a whole. I would say the explanation given in this article has nothing to do with it.

Agree with you 100%, almost every stock was up today but Apple is gaining market share like crazy from laptop users though, Most people are ether buying macbooks or netbooks that don't even run windows, just look at Amazon top seller under laptops and you will see

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by ericblr

Meanwhile... Microsoft's marketshare slowly starts slipping away...

Slowly.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by fraklinc

Agree with you 100%, almost every stock was up today but Apple is gaining market share like crazy from laptop users though, Most people are ether buying macbooks or netbooks that don't even run windows, just look at Amazon top seller under laptops and you will see

But they can install Windows if they choose to. While their is no way of telling the reason for the Windows purchases except to look at some anecdotal replies at Amazon, Windows is topping the software charts at #1 and #2. OS X Leopard is #9, VM Ware Fusion 2 is #19 and Parallels #87. There is no evidence to support how these VMs are being used or how many buy netbooks or Macs to use with illegally downloaded versions of Windows, so all the numbers are a bit moot, but I did find the Fusion number to be much higher than I would have expected, which bodes well for Macs being used by switchers.

[mikeske]

It was a up day for stocks all around and the news that Apple is expected to get more sales from the new MacBooks is not surprising given the fact I even helped Apple by buying a MacBook on Friday.

Now I have to go back to the Apple store and see if they will price match the $100.00 sale that Best Buy is having.....

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by mikeske

Now I have to go back to the Apple store and see if they will price match the $100.00 sale that Best Buy is having.....

They won't, but using a student discount is better than the Best Buy discount in all or almost all cases. I think even Amazon is better as you probably won't have to pay tax and they tend to offer discounts.

PS: Does anyone else who buys Macs or other PCs refuse the damn printer that is always offered? I always get the strangest looks for not wanting the printer.

[anantksundaram]

I call b-s on the attribution of some firm-specific event for AAPL's share price move. With a Beta of 2+, AAPL would be expected to move, on average, 2+% for every 1% change in the S&P.

The S&P went up 6.5% percentage points today. So, AAPL came out just about even.

[cameronj]

Originally Posted by Bandersnatch

APL has been tracking the DJIA for a while now. See the chart below.

Nice two day chart!

[ThinkExpensive]

Originally Posted by Bandersnatch

APL has been tracking the DJIA for a while now. See the chart below.

Today was just a bullish day for all the stocks in the DJIA, and Apple fared accordingly.
The speculation that the stock went up because an analyst said MacBooks will steal market share is just BS.

Agreed. BS report, just following market trends.

[TenoBell]

Its funny how people don't follow market trends when the stock is down.

They will argue the stock is down because the iPhone doesn't have copy and paste or the Apple is killing firewire, or whatever other gripe people have with Apple.

In reality you look across the market and everybody's down.

Originally Posted by ThinkExpensive

Agreed. BS report, just following market trends.

[Adjei]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Its funny how people don't follow market trends when the stock is down.

They will argue the stock is down because the iPhone doesn't have copy and paste or the Apple is killing firewire, or whatever other gripe people have with Apple.

In reality you look across the market and everybody's down.

Well said, I just have to laugh at some of the reasoning on this board sometimes.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Bandersnatch

APL has been tracking the DJIA for a while now. See the chart below.

Today was just a bullish day for all the stocks in the DJIA, and Apple fared accordingly.
The speculation that the stock went up because an analyst said MacBooks will steal market share is just BS.

Absolutely right. Anyone thick enough to credit an analyst's statement for today's rise has no business commenting.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Its funny how people don't follow market trends when the stock is down.

They will argue the stock is down because the iPhone doesn't have copy and paste or the Apple is killing firewire, or whatever other gripe people have with Apple.

In reality you look across the market and everybody's down.

This is the reality of today's marketplace, where irrationality is the norm. When the market settles in a few years, we'll be back to the "regular" irrational AAPL stock rises and dips.

[delreyjones]

Originally Posted by Ireland

Slowly.

... but surely ...

[sandau]

Originally Posted by MacOldTimer

How about reporting on the new Safari update and the 4,000 posts to Apple's website looking for help.

http://www.computerworld.com/action/...ource=rss_news

Apple continues to put out beta software and is using us to test it for them.

Give me a break 4,000+ users looking for help and Apple doesn't even bother to put out why the update was put out today.

MS/Apple what's the difference these days!

cheese curds. One has them, the other doesn't. You pick.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by solipsism

PS: Does anyone else who buys Macs or other PCs refuse the damn printer that is always offered? I always get the strangest looks for not wanting the printer.

Does it cost anything extra? If it involves a rebate, then I wouldn't necessarily want it but I don't think I'd refuse it in a bundle if I don't save anything by dropping it. I've never had a situation like that, but even if I don't use printers, I wouldn't mind having one in case it turns out to be useful for some odd reason or another. Or just take it and give it away.

Though maybe my perceptions are colored, I do remember times I almost didn't need one at all, but came handy enough to justify keeping one around. The part that might color might comments is that I do have five printers that are used on a near daily basis, three more are occasional use. Kind of a long story, though three of them are shared.

[Dick Applebaum]

Originally Posted by sandau

cheese curds. One has them, the other doesn't. You pick.

You know cheese curds? They squeak when you chew... 2 Februarys in Marshfield WI.

[bloggerblog]

Yup I agree this is BS:
AAPL: up 12.56%
S: up 28.65%
GM: up 17.32%
GOOG: Down 1.9%
MSFT: up 5.13%
YHOO: up 8.73%
T: up 6.95%

So Apple gained like everyone else, almost.

[sandau]

Originally Posted by MacOldTimer

Well I have an MS XP laptop because I'm in the business world.

Steve is still playing with games and tantrums.

Edit.
Made the mistake of thinking that Apple was going to put out a business phone and start listening to consumers and not just Steve.

My mistake.

Good part is I'll have plenty to choose from.

I too have a Dell, it works just fine, runs Vista. Works great for windows development, is solid. No issues. But my MBP is just hot sexy and what I come home to after work. Ahh, bliss.

[mikeske]

Originally Posted by solipsism

They won't, but using a student discount is better than the Best Buy discount in all or almost all cases. I think even Amazon is better as you probably won't have to pay tax and they tend to offer discounts.

PS: Does anyone else who buys Macs or other PCs refuse the damn printer that is always offered? I always get the strangest looks for not wanting the printer.

I refused the printer as I already have three printers and did need another one. I get a military discount from the Apple store (I am retired Air Force and they give a discount on both the iMac and the MacBook) but the ad never reflected a military or student discount just a hundred dollars off on the machine.

[wallymcgoo]

Originally Posted by ericblr

Meanwhile... Microsoft's marketshare slowly starts slipping away...

In fairness to Microsoft, there is a shift for one because of the 'Vista' issues but independent hardware manufacturers who are producing laptops have dropped the ball in relation to design.If anything, design is worse now as they cut manufacturing costs in the short term strategy of higher dividends and better share prices.

[markb]

Speaking of gains in the mac notebook segment...I just returned from the SC08 conference. This is a computing conference where Apple, unlike Dell Hp and MS, has no official presence (supercomputing). 90% of the 10,000 attendees had notebooks and Apple was almost certainly the most represented brand. I took a few samples during slow presentations and estimate that 30-40% of all the notebooks were macs. A fair number of the new models and airs too, even though people in this segment tend to go for pro models. Dell was probably number two, but it is just sooo sad to see the grey plastic Dell corporate brick sitting next to Apples various gorgeous models. Also saw a large number of mac pros driving displays on the exhibition floor, and a number of imacs deployed in quasi-kiosk mode. I know its never going to be a big profit center for them, but i have to think it would have been well worth the money to set up a booth in the exhibit hall even as pure advertising.

[evaness]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Absolutely right. Anyone thick enough to credit an analyst's statement for today's rise has no business commenting.

And probably shouldn't be playing the market, either.

[m2002brian]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Its funny how people don't follow market trends when the stock is down.

They will argue the stock is down because the iPhone doesn't have copy and paste or the Apple is killing firewire, or whatever other gripe people have with Apple.

In reality you look across the market and everybody's down.

Not directed at anybody in particular:
Exactly, that's why, with the market where it's at, and also, how secure Apple is, this is a great time for those with resources. The market will come back, and thus APPL HOLDERS will benefit.

[robb01]

Im just not seeing this...


__________

[auxio]

Originally Posted by sandau

I too have a Dell, it works just fine, runs Vista. Works great for windows development, is solid. No issues. But my MBP is just hot sexy and what I come home to after work. Ahh, bliss.

I have a MBP. Works great for Mac, Windows, and Linux development at the same time. Emulators are a godsend.

Tried Vista, had about 2 or 3 blue screens while applying the 100 odd updates after I installed it. Finally got it all up to date, just to find out that some of the software I use still isn't supported. So now I need to repeat the process again with XP. Fun times.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by delreyjones

... but surely ...

Don't call me Shirley.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum

You know cheese curds? They squeak when you chew... 2 Februarys in Marshfield WI.

That's because of the curdish mice.

[Blah64]

Originally Posted by solipsism

...PS: Does anyone else who buys Macs or other PCs refuse the damn printer that is always offered? I always get the strangest looks for not wanting the printer.

Originally Posted by JeffDM

Does it cost anything extra? If it involves a rebate, then I wouldn't necessarily want it but I don't think I'd refuse it in a bundle if I don't save anything by dropping it. ...

It doesn't cost you cash, but it isn't completely free. They want your personal information, and are willing to give you a free printer in exchange for it. Not worth it to me, so I either turn it down or see if someone else wants to "do the deal". And of course the printer manufacturers want you to get locked into buying their profit-generating cartridges, but that's another story...

[vandy1997]

I own an iPhone, and I do NOT own any other Apple products. Based upon the fact that Apple does not listen to the demands of its iPhone users (with respect to MMS, copy and paste, video recording, etc. on the iPhone), I will NEVER buy another Apple product. And I am a user who loves the advancement of technology. I have a doctorate degree in law, and I'm pretty well educated. Apple's stubborn stance will not get it to the next level! You have to satisfy the ENTERPRISE AND the call of the common folk. Otherwise, you will go back to the Apple of yesteryear - OVERPRICED and UNDERPROMISED! I am a J.D. AND an M.B.A.! That may not mean much, but I am speaking for many of those who are well educated but who see Apple as being in an Ivory Tower and not listening to its users. This type of attitude will ruin you in the long run if other companies meet the needs of such users! Apple should take advantage of this rocky market to take control of the smartphone business. Yet, it still decides to continue with its stubborn ways and avoid the demads of its audience. It sounds to me like the U.S auto industry, but the next 12 months will reveal the future of Apple. It will either come out ahead, or it will fail, along with Motorola and other companies who decided what was best for the economy based upon the ideas of its executive office, as opposed to the ideas of its consumers. That's Marketing 101!!!

[TenoBell]

Originally Posted by vandy1997

I own an iPhone, and I do NOT own any other Apple products. Based upon the fact that Apple does not listen to the demands of its iPhone users (with respect to MMS, copy and paste, video recording, etc. on the iPhone), I will NEVER buy another Apple product. And I am a user who loves the advancement of technology.

I would suggest for the future. If a product does not perform some crucial function that you require. The company has not promised that the product will ever perform the function you require. The wisest choice would be not to buy that product.

Otherwise, you will go back to the Apple of yesteryear - OVERPRICED and UNDERPROMISED! This type of attitude will ruin you in the long run if other companies meet the needs of such users! Apple should take advantage of this rocky market to take control of the smartphone business. Yet, it still decides to continue with its stubborn ways and avoid the demads of its audience. It sounds to me like the U.S auto industry, but the next 12 months will reveal the future of Apple. It will either come out ahead, or it will fail, along with Motorola and other companies who decided what was best for the economy based upon the ideas of its executive office, as opposed to the ideas of its consumers. That's Marketing 101!!!

It can be argued that Apple is listening to the needs of consumers. In studies of mobile phones the top three uses of smart phones are email, voice calling, SMS. Everything else is icing on the cake. Most of those extra features go unused by many people.

Its not simply incumbent on a company to provide a product that checks off a feature list. A company should provide a product that does what it does very well. The fact that the iPhone is the best selling phone in the US and the second best selling smartphone in the world, is indication that it does meet the needs of the market.