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Old 12-10-2008, 04:14 PM   #1
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Are netbooks shrinking Apple's slice of the portable market?

With momentum in a dreary global economy now favoring mini-notebooks called netbooks, many top tier PC vendors are seeing various forms of success in the segment, which for the first time last quarter showed signs of straining Apple's share of the overall portable computing market.

A report released by DisplaySearch this week notes that netbooks have emerged as a bright spot in the otherwise dismal PC market, with sales rising some 160% during the third quarter of the year, with all of the major players except Apple now contributing their own offerings.

The latest wave of netbooks are different from those in years past, which were well equipped and typically fetched a premium over full-sized netbooks. Today, they're barebones systems that start at around $300. And they've been gaining popularity ever since PC vendor Asus opened the door to the market late last year with its Eee PC, an approach to portable computing that was quickly duplicated by many of its rival PC makers.

DisplaySearch expects the netbook market to surge from less than 1 million units in 2007 to over 14 million units by the end of this year. Going forward, the firm believes the segment is poised for even more dramatic growth, propelled by low prices and a user experience that much more closely mirrors a typical PC.

"With the lone exception of Apple, all of the top 10 PC brands have entered the mini-note PC market, initially as a response to the competitive threat posed by Asus, but also to satisfy demand from customers for low-priced, thin and very light (less than 3 pounds) products that provide at least a modicum of typical office software functionality and also enable greater mobility," said John F. Jacobs, Director of Notebook Market Research for DisplaySearch.

He added that "demand for greater mobility is especially evident in certain geographies as a number of mini-note PC brands are partnering with telecom providers to subsidize mini-note PCs, much like they do mobile phones."

More specifically, Jacobs is forecasting the netbook segment to settle at approximately 16% share of the notebook PC market by 2011, fueled by a combination of early adopters, consumer and enterprise customers seeking a smaller or secondary notebook PC, as well as new customers in emerging markets."

As part of his report, the researcher threw together a market share chart that combines netbook and traditional notebook sales by brand. It shows that, despite sales of Macs growing at more than 2.5 times the industry average, the lack of a netbook offering means the company's slice of the overall portable computing market has shrunk from 4.6% in the third quarter of 2007 to 4.1% in the third quarter of this year. In addition, each of the top PC vendors with the exception of Sony and Lenovo grew their combined portable shipments faster than Apple's 24%.



For his part, Apple chief executive Steve Jobs has made it clear that Apple isn't going after the budget PC market just yet. "We choose to be in some segments of the market and we choose not to be in certain segments of the market," he explained during a recent conference call.

"We're not tremendously worried," he said. "As we look at the netbook category, that's a nascent category. As best as we can tell, there's not a lot of them being sold."

Still, Jobs didn't shut the door on an Apple netbook completely, explaining that the company's plan is to observe the market for the time being and see how it evolves. "[A]nd we have got some pretty interesting ideas if it does evolve," he added.

In a lengthy report last week, Technology Business Research analyst Ezra Gottheil dismissed the notion of an artificial premium on Apple products, saying the Mac maker is bound to reach a breaking point where perceived quality can't override genuine financial woes from customers.

Gottheil predicts the company will release a computer in the netbook class within the first half of next year, but one that doesn't obey many of the rules dictated by the industry. He sees it fetching around $599.
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Old 12-10-2008, 04:25 PM   #2
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Quote:
Are netbooks shrinking Apple's slice of the portable market?
Is this a joke? Of course they are. The question is by how much? More importantly I think Apple needs to bring back to colors to the MacBook range. I know kids who like those Dell's simply because of the color.


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Old 12-10-2008, 04:33 PM   #3
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Is this a joke? Of course they are. The question is by how much? More importantly I think Apple needs to bring back to colors to the MacBook range. I know kids who like those Dell's simply because of the color.
Correct me if I'm crazy, but I believe it's mathematically impossible to grow your sales faster than industry average and lose market share.

Am I nuts?


"Solipsism: In philosophy, a view that maintains that the self is the only thing that can be known to exist. It is an extreme form of skepticism. The solipsist sees himself or herself as the only individual in existence...."
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Old 12-10-2008, 04:37 PM   #4
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Apple's doomed!


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Old 12-10-2008, 04:42 PM   #5
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Correct me if I'm crazy, but I believe it's mathematically impossible to grow your sales faster than industry average and lose market share.

Am I nuts?
Unless someone else is doing the samething but at a larger rate or moving more units.

With Apple having an overall small market share, it wouldn't take much to sideline their real story if the statistics are tilted in number of units or they lump a inexpensive netbook in with MacBook sales.


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Old 12-10-2008, 04:43 PM   #6
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The title of this thread is set up for us to debate in this thread.

Macs don't compete directly with any particular model of PC in that way. A consumer would first need to decide if they want a Mac or a PC. Then they decide which specific model of Mac or PC they want.

People buying netbooks have already decided they want a Windows notebook. The next choice is which Windows notebook.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post
Is this a joke? Of course they are. The question is by how much? More importantly I think Apple needs to bring back to colors to the MacBook range. I know kids who like those Dell's simply because of the color.
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Old 12-10-2008, 04:45 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post
...

Macs don't compete directly with any particular model of PC in that way. A consumer would first need to decide if they want a Mac or a PC. Then they decide which specific model of Mac or PC they want.

People buying netbooks have already decided they want a Windows notebook. The next choice is which Windows notebook.
Exactly.
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Old 12-10-2008, 04:47 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post
The title of this thread is set up for us to debate in this thread.

Macs don't compete directly with any particular model of PC in that way. A consumer would first need to decide if they want a Mac or a PC. Then they decide which specific model of Mac or PC they want.

People buying netbooks have already decided they want a Windows notebook. The next choice is which Windows notebook.
Or Linux for an even lower price.
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Old 12-10-2008, 04:47 PM   #9
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Correct me if I'm crazy, but I believe it's mathematically impossible to grow your sales faster than industry average and lose market share.

Am I nuts?
Not nuts, but sales can be measured either in units or in money. So Apple could be increasing its share of the money, but losing share of units. That makes sense considering how cheap some of these netbooks are.
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Old 12-10-2008, 04:47 PM   #10
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PCWorld has done a similar story. The title states netbooks outsell the iPhone.

They are comparing all netbook sales against the sales of one smartphone. Netbooks still barely outsell the iPhone by itself. When it would be applicable to compare netbook sales against all smartphone sales. Where of course smartphones far out sell netbooks.

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With Apple having an overall small market share, it wouldn't take much to sideline their real story if the statistics are tilted in number of units or they lump a inexpensive netbook in with MacBook sales.
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Old 12-10-2008, 04:48 PM   #11
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I wonder if AI is subtly preparing us for a major netbook launch?
I mean, two news bits about netbooks in a week...
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Old 12-10-2008, 04:57 PM   #12
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People buying netbooks have already decided they want a Windows notebook. The next choice is which Windows notebook.
Not necessarily - I have an Eee 901 and have Mac OS X loaded on it. It's not perfect (wired ethernet, microphone, and webcam don't work), but for most purposes it's excellent. Accelerated graphics, sound, WiFi, etc all work fine. 1024x600 is not as constrained as you'd initially think.

Put another way, you can get a 2.2lb solid state laptop capable of running Mac OS X (and the usual Linux and Windows) for under $300. Let that sink in a minute. It's no slouch in power, either - 5 hours battery life and enough oomph to play World of Warcraft (admittedly, just barely).

I've been a Mac die-hard since the mid-eighties, but portability like that is just too hard to pass up.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:01 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post
The title of this thread is set up for us to debate in this thread.

Macs don't compete directly with any particular model of PC in that way. A consumer would first need to decide if they want a Mac or a PC. Then they decide which specific model of Mac or PC they want.

People buying netbooks have already decided they want a Windows notebook. The next choice is which Windows notebook.
Your logic seems confused. You say, "People buying netbooks have already decided they want a Windows notebook." So, they have decided against a Mac, whether it be because they are only interested in a netbook is irrelevant. Thus netbooks are competing against Mac portables. Really, how would you know if they looked at Apple's offerings, realized there wasn't anything that met their requirements (small, lightweight computer embodied in the netbook), and thus had no choice but to look Windows netbooks?
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:04 PM   #14
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Not necessarily - I have an Eee 901 and have Mac OS X loaded on it. It's not perfect (wired ethernet, microphone, and webcam don't work), but for most purposes it's excellent. Accelerated graphics, sound, WiFi, etc all work fine. 1024x600 is not as constrained as you'd initially think.
Of course...to anyone with low standards, an Eee 901 running a crippled Mac OS X is perfectly fine.

Anything can be perfectly fine so long as one's standard is lowered sufficiently. To a lot of people, a 200 dollar PC running Windows is fantastic.

Anyway, the netbook market is a suicidal market. I'd love to see Apple drop its profit margins and give us more affordable products, but Apple will never do this. Even in economic turmoil.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:05 PM   #15
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There will be no video iPod. Nobody wants to watch videos on an iPod.

Apple will not enter the cell phone market.

Apple will not allow third party native iPhone applications. Web apps are really, really SWEET.

Apple will never switch to Intel processors.


Last edited by Haggar; 12-10-2008 at 05:23 PM..
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:05 PM   #16
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Netbooks don't hurt Apple at all, but it is hurting microsoft & PC manufactures big time, just look at Amazon.com People are ether buying Macbooks or buying netbooks regular windows laptops are just not doing to good i think. Almost everyone start's on a windows machine by default so to see this happening is big cause Macs do cost way more money and people just keep buying them at any cost
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:06 PM   #17
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Apple's Netbook should look exactly like a mini MacBook Air but with a 10" screen and a plastic case instead of aluminum.
It should be available in Black and White and be priced around $799.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:06 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post
PCWorld has done a similar story. The title states netbooks outsell the iPhone...
In other news, the sale of new dishwashers completely outstrips the market for trained elephants!

Elephant trainers should be deeply concerned.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:13 PM   #19
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How would sales of netbooks loaded with XP hurt MS?
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Netbooks don't hurt Apple at all, but it is hurting microsoft & PC manufactures big time, just look at Amazon.com People are ether buying Macbooks or buying netbooks regular windows laptops are just not doing to good i think. Almost everyone start's on a windows machine by default so to see this happening is big cause Macs do cost way more money and people just keep buying them at any cost
The Top 13 netbooks are loaded with XP.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:14 PM   #20
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Is this a joke? Of course they are. The question is by how much? More importantly I think Apple needs to bring back to colors to the MacBook range. I know kids who like those Dell's simply because of the color.
I was actually going to say "Is this a joke?" for a completely different reason. Netbooks may be picking up momentum, but I don't see Apple being concerned about it. I also don't see a need for stockholders to be concerned about it either. When the time is right, Apple will make their move. There are enough companies shelling out mediocre devices because their plan is all about offering as many products as possible. Why is everybody in such a hurry to have Apple create every computer and home appliance? You ever hear the phrase, "Jack of all trades - Ace of none"?

I think the current laptop models are pretty small to begin with. I guess if your desktop is literally a tray table you might want to get a netbook to save some space. I guess I see a netbook as a "luxury item" not a necessity. We can all survive without one, but it might be cool, less heavy, or more convenient to have one.

Now THIS makes an Apple 17" laptop seem "netbookish" doesn't it?

We've come a long way in 25 years.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:20 PM   #21
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As always...

Apple will wait for a viable market to emerge first! Then, and only then, will they produce the finest netbook type device on the market. They will not outsell all other vendors in doing so, but they will make more money.

Hello all! My first post! Hooray!
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:20 PM   #22
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Apple's Netbook should look exactly like a mini MacBook Air but with a 10" screen and a plastic case instead of aluminum.
It should be available in Black and White and be priced around $799.
Aaagh, I was going to say something similar.

Also:

You could take the iPhone's innards and still have the basics of casual use (surf, email, edit docs, play music and video, book reader ). Scaling up reduces the cost to manufacture. With a netbook-sized battery, lifetimes could be huge. A single 4-pin two-way audio jack plus a single USB. Add to this a version of OSX that is closer to iPhone than adult Leopard, but can delegate processing and data storage to server-side. 9 inches width gives you full-size alphabet keys.

Instant start-up, active stand-by, endless battery use, ridiculously slim and light, permanently connected, built-in back-to-my-mac, and cheaper than macbook or iPhone-parity.


Last edited by PXT; 12-10-2008 at 05:28 PM..
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:24 PM   #23
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So the author believes apple will put out a netbook because netbooks are shrinking apples slice of the portable market. This makes no sense, why would apple want to create a product that affect its current products sales? Apple evaluates its current products when bringing a new product to the market. If the new product will take sales from another apple will not bring that product to market.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:25 PM   #24
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Ahh the beauty of changing the market target and thus producing completely different numbers to piss on the stock traders.

Apple's Laptop market share that they TARGET is growing.

You go right ahead and add in the Netbooks that they don't target and show that their portable market share is shrinking.

I'll go right ahead and throw in their portable Smartphone market and show its drastically growing.

Get it?

It's a junk art form [not worthy of a science label] to put netbooks in with laptops. They are completely different markets.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:29 PM   #25
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Looks like "nascent" didn't last very longl

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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post
People buying netbooks have already decided they want a Windows notebook. The next choice is which Windows notebook.
Maybe it works for some people, but not everyone.

Who's to say that some people decide they want a netbook and only decide on windows once they find out that there is no Mac option?

It's the old "I'd buy a mac netbook (or whatever other product) but they just don't make one yet".
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:29 PM   #26
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An extremely small number of people are going to bother doing this. To the point its inconsequential when looking at over all netbook and macbook sales.

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Not necessarily - I have an Eee 901 and have Mac OS X loaded on it. It's not perfect (wired ethernet, microphone, and webcam don't work), but for most purposes it's excellent. Accelerated graphics, sound, WiFi, etc all work fine. 1024x600 is not as constrained as you'd initially think.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:31 PM   #27
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. . . impossible to grow your sales faster than industry average and lose market share.
The author is saying that Apple's share of the combined, portable market (laptop + netbook) is declining (per unit) though its share of the laptop market is increasing: netbook sales (units) are increasing. The author doesn't state that Apple is selling more computers than last year, only that people are buying more netbooks than last year. The "who cares" to Apple is if its laptop sales decline or if it misses out on a lucrative netbook market. When Jobs worries about the latter, the iPod Touch will get real Bluetooth. (But is he willing to go up against the Newton?)
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:33 PM   #28
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The adverts are kind of cute today. I wonder how they do the targeting. What shall I do today? Find love, or virtualize some servers?
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:33 PM   #29
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Not confused at all. When has anyone directly compared sales of any particular Windows PC directly against any particular Mac. You can't make that comparison.

Its pretty elementary. You first have to decide between OS X and Windows. Two entirely different platforms which require an investment in different software. Their is nothing netbooks do to negate this choice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by caliminius View Post
Your logic seems confused. You say, "People buying netbooks have already decided they want a Windows notebook." So, they have decided against a Mac, whether it be because they are only interested in a netbook is irrelevant. Thus netbooks are competing against Mac portables. Really, how would you know if they looked at Apple's offerings, realized there wasn't anything that met their requirements (small, lightweight computer embodied in the netbook), and thus had no choice but to look Windows netbooks?
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:37 PM   #30
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News Flash!: Windows has bigger slice than Apple in the OS market

I mean honestly, do these people just come up with news just for the sake of coming up with news?

Maybe Apple is not interested in that market?

Nothing to see here... move along....
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:37 PM   #31
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In other news, the sale of new dishwashers completely outstrips the market for trained elephants!
Dude, that could totally cost Barbar his job at Applebee's.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:42 PM   #32
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In related news, 100% of all lame articles are done by people that drink water.

Maybe they should start hitting the bars and get a buzz. The quality of their work may improve.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:45 PM   #33
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Bring on the Apple Netbooks.

Oh wait....thats right I have an IPhone, already.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:51 PM   #34
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Bring on the Apple Netbooks.

Oh wait....thats right I have an IPhone, already.
heh

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Old 12-10-2008, 05:53 PM   #35
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Apple will wait for a viable market to emerge first!
Just like the iPhone right? /Wrong


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Old 12-10-2008, 05:53 PM   #36
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You first have to decide between OS X and Windows.
Says who?

My wife's PC laptop broke and we've been putting off replacing it. She's fine with getting either a PC or mac to replace it, so the choice comes down to which specific models are available.

When you're mostly doing word processing and internet, choice of platform isn't always as important as what hardware is the best fit.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:55 PM   #37
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Any Apple netbook should have the following to even be considered:

USB 2.0
Display-Port
ExpressCard slot

The MacBook Air misses the mark on being a Netbook because of it's size. Furthermore, I hope with the advent of Snow Leopard, Apple gives us some sort of Portable Home Directory system without the need to run Leopard Server for admin purposes.

The lack of a high speed file transfer system between said "netbook" and a user's primary computer is why Apple won't ever be "in" on the Netbook craze.
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Old 12-10-2008, 05:58 PM   #38
StrangeThingInTheLand
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losing market share, gaining market share: what is the 'market'?

I'm surprised that no one has referenced jobs' other remark on this topic, namely, that they consider the ipod touch in some respects a netbook, as it addresses some of the same needs as a netbook. If one were to add in all of the iphone/touch sales as part of the overall 'portable computing segment', market share is likely growing (hence, elephant trainers and dishwasher manufacturers should both be concerned).

More to the point about apple's future products is this suggests that they may expand the ipod touch upmarket to compete in this category, rather than the macbook/air downmarket. Margins could be higher than the touch rather than lower than the macbook, and it would grow out of a product category where apple is the market leader.

Analysts have latched onto netbooks as an extension of the laptop market, but that doesn't make it so. What truly defines a market, a la crossing the chasm, is the set of alternatives people consider when making a purchasing decision. In our (educational) purchasing decisions, we see netbook and ipod touch as products in an overlapping if not the same category.
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Old 12-10-2008, 06:07 PM   #39
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Most people are mostly word processing and internet. But you still have to make a platform choice and a usability preference. OS X and Windows are very different. MS Office for Windows is very different from MS Windows for Mac.

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Says who?

My wife's PC laptop broke and we've been putting off replacing it. She's fine with getting either a PC or mac to replace it, so the choice comes down to which specific models are available.

When you're mostly doing word processing and internet, choice of platform isn't always as important as what hardware is the best fit.
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Old 12-10-2008, 06:08 PM   #40
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Apple will wait for a viable market to emerge first! Then, and only then, will they produce the finest netbook type device on the market. They will not outsell all other vendors in doing so, but they will make more money.
I'm willing to bet they're already hard at work on it in Apple's Secret LabsŪ. When they feel the market is ready, it'll pop up faster than most people think.

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This makes no sense, why would apple want to create a product that affect its current products sales?
If your choice is to make a smaller sale or lose a sale completely, which would you pick?
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