Apple wanted out of tyranny of MacWorld - reports

[AppleInsider]

Apple's decision to end its participation at the annual Macworld Expo after next month's show is a sign the company wants to free itself from making product announcements on someone else's schedule and not an indication that its chief executive is in poor health, according to new reports.

The announcement Tuesday is similar to a move by which the Mac maker pulled out of the east coast Macworld conference several years ago following a disagreement with show organizer IDG, which sets the dates and locations for the events.

"This change is bound to once again raise questions about Jobs health," Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf told clients in a report on the matter. "Our reliable sources, which we spoke with this fall, indicated that Jobs is cancer free."

Instead, the analyst equated the move to an extension of a recent strategy that has seen the Cupertino-based company more frequently introduce new products at its own events, like the two held this fall that gave way to new iPods and Mac notebooks.

"I think Apple wants to get away from the tyranny of MacWorld where it is forced to introduce new products on IDG’s schedule, rather than its own," he said.

Keith Bachman, an analyst with BMO capital, had similar thoughts on the matter. In a note to his own clients, he said he believes Jobs will remain Apple's chief executive at least through the 2009 calendar year.

Instead, the analyst sees the charismatic chief's absence from this year's conference as a sign that the company has nothing special to announce and therefore has decided to scale back expectations ahead of time.

"We believe that not having Mr. Jobs lead the 2009 MacWorld does suggest [...] that this event will not be terribly meaningful," he said. "Hence, the downside in the stock for a disappointing MacWorld is probably realized near-term rather than at MacWorld."

Shares of Apple were trading down $7.09 (or more than 7%) to $88.34 in late morning trading.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[ncee]

We'll see. Apple won't likely have any announcements before MacWorld, but will they have any, some right afterwards, and will Steve be doing it, or someone else?

Skip

[DimMok]

Something smells bad.

Why wouldnt SJ get in front of a camera to explain this.
Thus, removing any specualtions on his health.

Man I love SJ.....He is the best.

DM

[JeffDM]

It seems to be a problem of Apple's own making, they've been announcing pretty major new products reasonably consistently using that stage at that event.

[silver99]

I love Apple computers but not because of Steve Jobs. I think this is a smart move on Apple's part.

I think Steve Jobs is too closely knit to the brand of Apple (hence the drop in stock after the announcement). Steve won't be around forever so it's good to make the break and show off Apple for Apple's sake.

[Olternaut]

Its the beginning of the end.

What a freakingly nightmarish and utter and absolutely devastating turn of events.

[wobegon]

Originally Posted by Olternaut

Its the beginning of the end.

What a freakingly nightmarish and utter and absolutely devastating turn of events.

/sarcasm

[CREB]

People love to hate Apple. I wish Apple was a privately held company as I get tired of the investors and those here who demand this and that for a the sake of an effing dollar, euro, etc.

[freethinker]

2009- the year apple stock goes to $3.50

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Shares of Apple were trading down $7.09 (or more than 7%) to $88.34 in late morning trading.

Misleading. Right now the whole market is down; even the car (foreign) manufacturers, unless you are getting a bail out like Ford and GM whose stock is up right now. (12/17/08:11:59 AM)

[Foo2]

Originally Posted by DimMok

Something smells bad.

Why wouldnt SJ get in front of a camera to explain this.
Thus, removing any specualtions on his health.

My guess is Jobs doesn't want to be involved in a shuck-and-jive presentation, which it will be without new products. This suggests Apple has outstanding commitments with component suppliers or is overstocked with components, because existing models are not selling well enough. Those commitments and supplies must be depleted before moving on to new models.

[robb01]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Misleading. Right now the whole market is down.

exactly

____________

[bloggerblog]

"I think Apple wants to get away from the tyranny of MacWorld where it is forced to introduce new products on IDG’s schedule, rather than its own,"

That statement is total Bollocks! Apple uses the MWExpo to announce and to show-off upcoming technologies and to publicly express support for other companies such as Intel, Microsoft, even Bungie software. Delivery schedules have always been set before the keynotes and products are sometimes launched a year after the keynote.

The SF MWExpo is a Mac geek's God sent event, where one can indulge himself in everything Mac for a change. It will be a disappointment to see it go.

Having said that, Steve Jobs has done his part and has done it damn well, he deserves to rest all he wants.

[kaiwai]

Talk and hysterics. Has anyone actually asked themselves as to what benefit Apple get from Macworld and whether the costs actually result in increased sales? all but the hardcore ignore expos - the average person has no interest in these geek feasts - you're preaching to the converted so there is no monetary justification to invest in even attending.

IMHO I prefer the way Sun does it - press release; reviews, online videos; if you're hard core - you'll watch them, if you're joe average, it isn't as though you'd be paying attention anyway.

[quinney]

Originally Posted by CREB

People love to hate Apple. I wish Apple was a privately held company as I get tired of the investors and those here who demand this and that for a the sake of an effing dollar, euro, etc.

Originally Posted by freethinker

2009- the year apple stock goes to $3.50

Apple has over $25 per share in cash, so it is unlikely the stock will hit $3.50 per share
this year.

Going private is an interesting idea. With so much cash, no debt, and historically low
interest rates, there may never have been a better time for someone to try to take
Apple private through an LBO. I don't think it would be successful as long as SJ is
at the helm, but if he were to step down, there is nobody Apple could name to replace
him who would have the clout to make an LBO impossible. I suppose current management
could try it. Wouldn't a plausible rumor to that effect cause all the short sellers to soil
themselves?

[roehlstation]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Misleading. Right now the whole market is down; even the car (foreign) manufacturers, unless you are getting a bail out like Ford and GM whose stock is up right now. (12/17/08:11:59 AM)

Ford isn't looking for a bailout. GM and Chrysler are.

[roehlstation]

Originally Posted by quinney

Apple has over $25 per share in cash, so it is unlikely the stock will hit $3.50 per share
this year.

Going private is an interesting idea. With so much cash, no debt, and historically low
interest rates, there may never have been a better time for someone to try to take
Apple private through an LBO. I don't think it would be successful as long as SJ is
at the helm, but if he were to step down, there is nobody Apple could name to replace
him who would have the clout to make an LBO impossible. I suppose current management
could try it. Wouldn't a plausible rumor to that effect cause all the short sellers to soil
themselves?

Private companies don't make as much money.

[tundraboy]

I always wondered why Apple would make their biggest new product announcements *right after* the biggest shopping season of the year. There is no upside at all and it guarantees ill will and disappointment from customers who just bought the product whose replacement was announced at MWSF.

[elroth]

There's going to be a point in the keynote that Schiller videoconferences with Jobs, who announces the "one more thing" that nobody's expecting - and it will change the world we live in forever.

[Walter Slocombe]

Originally Posted by tundraboy

I always wondered why Apple would make their biggest new product announcements *right after* the biggest shopping season of the year. There is no upside at all and it guarantees ill will and disappointment from customers who just bought the product whose replacement was announced at MWSF.

seriously?

why do people HAVE to slavishly buy so much stuff for one single day/event? xmas.

I guess Macworld is.. the same?

Free yourself from the Tyranny of xmas!

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by roehlstation

Ford isn't looking for a bailout. GM and Chrysler are.

Ford has asked to be part of the bailout package. Chrysler is a private company and is not a publicly listed company.

"(Ford) CEO (Alan Mulally) says bailout would allow Ford to "be part of this economic recovery" http://alan%20mulally/

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Ford has asked to be part of the bailout package. Chrysler is a private company and is not a publicly listed company.

"(Ford) CEO (Alan Mulally) says bailout would allow Ford to "be part of this economic recovery" http://alan%20mulally/

The link is broken.

The problem is that the situation seems to change daily. At the start, they wanted in, but later I think they backed out, that might have changed yet again.

[GQB]

Originally Posted by Olternaut

Its the beginning of the end.

What a freakingly nightmarish and utter and absolutely devastating turn of events.

Jeez... lighten up a bit. As much as I like Jobs, Apple needs to get beyond the cult of personality if its going to realize its potential.
I'm personally buyin', not cryin'.

[echosonic]

Originally Posted by tundraboy

I always wondered why Apple would make their biggest new product announcements *right after* the biggest shopping season of the year. There is no upside at all and it guarantees ill will and disappointment from customers who just bought the product whose replacement was announced at MWSF.

This is exactly the reason.

I work for a company that makes music stuff, and each year we lament the fact that the idiots who organize the NAMM show in Anaheim do so in January.

So we have a choice: Release products in time for Christmas and have NOTHING to show off at the convention, or make no money at Xmas and look like Rock Stars with shiny new toys.

Considering that AAPL is hit badly if they do not throw out a new product every Jan, kudos to them and wall street can go f--k itself.

Imagine how much more money AAPL will make this coming year if they can release in time for XMAS and are able to blow off MacWorld.

Now imagine how nice it will be to watch the stock not become such a roller coaster around the holidays.

[bdkennedy1]

What I find interesting is that after MWSF and WWDC, the world would talk about Apple's new products.

I saw none of that excitement in Apple's small press conferences for products such as the iPod Hi-Fi and the new iPods.

[abrooks]

Macworld not MacWorld

[hillstones]

People need to read the current articles at Macworld.com. They said the reason they dropped out of East coast shows is because they had nothing significant to annouce. The last NY Macworld, Apple only had .Mac and iCal to announce. Why bother? They obviously have nothing significant to announce so it is better to avoid negative press over a bad keynote with nothing new.

They also said Apple's presence at Macworld completely overshadows and dominates the Expo, to the point that the other vendors lose out on showing their products. They said Apple's booth is nothing more than a big Apple Store. Again, what's the point?

Apple doesn't need trade shows anymore. They do better announcing products on their own timeline, doing their own keynotes, which is FAR cheaper than Macworld. That was the other main point. They said it is excessively expensive to do the keynote, host a booth, and take employees away from their current projects to watch the booth. They said this applies to any vendor wanting to go to Macworld, which probably explains why Adobe and Belkin dropped out. They need to spend their money elsewhere. Also, the problem with Macworld was that the new products were rarely available. Jobs always said, we hope to have this product shipping by March (but we were forced to announce it now in January because of Macworld).

Since the rumor is only an updated Mac Mini (a complete waste), then Jobs did the right thing. People would have complained and said the keynote sucked because there was nothing new. Better not to do it at all.

[hillstones]

Originally Posted by bdkennedy1

What I find interesting is that after MWSF and WWDC, the world would talk about Apple's new products.

I saw none of that excitement in Apple's small press conferences for products such as the iPod Hi-Fi and the new iPods.

I guess you didn't pay attention to Apple's new MacBook and MacBook Pro announcement? Millions of people use Apple products and Macs. Those same millions don't go to trade shows or rely on trade shows for obtaining information.

There is no point to watching a keynote speech anymore because this site will spoil the new product release days before the keynote. Took all the fun out of it. Apple leaving the Macworld Expo will allow the other Mac developers to get recognized. However, trade shows are a dying breed. I went to the LA car show last year and it sucked big time.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

The link is broken.

The problem is that the situation seems to change daily. At the start, they wanted in, but later I think they backed out, that might have changed yet again.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/11/18/mul...maker.bailout/

They are hedging their bets:

"Ford has said it has enough cash on hand to survive the current economic downturn but requested a line of credit to hedge against further deterioration and the potential collapse of its supply base should either GM or Chrysler fail." http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp..._4Nv6tWFE2o0bg

Ford Bailout Money Unnecessary, Company Says http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/1..._n_149824.html

And from the Huffington Post dated DECEMBER 17, 2008, "…Ford wants to set up a $9 billion long-term line of credit from the government but would use it only if the U.S. auto market worsens or fails to recover. The company has said it has enough borrowed money to make it through 2009 without government help."

[quinney]

Originally Posted by roehlstation

Private companies don't make as much money.

Bechtel and Koch Industries, among others, might differ with your assertion.
Anyway, I was talking about a leveraged buyout. Often with LBOs the ongoing
operation of the company is not as important as "releasing value". This is
investor speak for selling the parts for more than you paid for the whole. Also
some LBO's are done when stock prices are generally depressed (like they are
now) with the idea of going back public when stock prices are generally high
(like they may be in a couple of years).

[Carniphage]

Is it so hard to imagine that Apple fell out with expo group IDG?

IDG wanting to charge Apple to appear at MacWorld is like asking Bette Midler to pay for her stage time in Vegas.

Apple has enough cash to put on large and small events, wherever and whenever it chooses. IDG needs Apple, but Apple does not need IDG.

C.

[brax.j]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Misleading. Right now the whole market is down; even the car (foreign) manufacturers, unless you are getting a bail out like Ford and GM whose stock is up right now. (12/17/08:11:59 AM)

Originally Posted by roehlstation

Ford isn't looking for a bailout. GM and Chrysler are.

Originally Posted by JeffDM

The link is broken.

The problem is that the situation seems to change daily. At the start, they wanted in, but later I think they backed out, that might have changed yet again.

Originally Posted by Abster2core

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/11/18/mul...maker.bailout/

They are hedging their bets:

"Ford has said it has enough cash on hand to survive the current economic downturn but requested a line of credit to hedge against further deterioration and the potential collapse of its supply base should either GM or Chrysler fail." http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp..._4Nv6tWFE2o0bg

Ford Bailout Money Unnecessary, Company Says http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/1..._n_149824.html

And from the Huffington Post dated DECEMBER 17, 2008, "…Ford wants to set up a $9 billion long-term line of credit from the government but would use it only if the U.S. auto market worsens or fails to recover. The company has said it has enough borrowed money to make it through 2009 without government help."

All three wanted the money but the senate said no rightfully so.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/12/11/aut...out/index.html
But our dipsh-t president says he will get them the money.

[KingOfSomewhereHot]

Originally Posted by roehlstation

Private companies don't make as much money.

While you could certainly find examples where that is true, you can also find examples where it is false. Private(ly held) companies are under no obligation to publish how much they make, or how they spend what they make. The controlling interests could decide to pay out all the companies cash as payroll to themselves and create the illusion that the company is "not so profitable", when in reality, it is a hugely profitable company. (A grossly exaggerated example, to make a point.)

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by hillstones

People need to read the current articles at Macworld.com. They said the reason they dropped out of East coast shows is because they had nothing significant to annouce. The last NY Macworld, Apple only had .Mac and iCal to announce. Why bother? They obviously have nothing significant to announce so it is better to avoid negative press over a bad keynote with nothing new.

Most keynotes of most conventions are uneventful anyway. It looks like Apple is the only one that is pressured to announce something big and new.

Originally Posted by echosonic

This is exactly the reason.

I work for a company that makes music stuff, and each year we lament the fact that the idiots who organize the NAMM show in Anaheim do so in January.

So we have a choice: Release products in time for Christmas and have NOTHING to show off at the convention, or make no money at Xmas and look like Rock Stars with shiny new toys.

I think the convention & expo system needs to be revamped. They are usually overly expensive and are pretty demanding. The pricing & regulations imposed by the halls are pretty unrealistic too, there are a lot of things you can't do yourself because they make you use the workers they provide to do the same thing.

Now imagine how nice it will be to watch the stock not become such a roller coaster around the holidays.

The stock is always a roller coaster.

Originally Posted by KingOfSomewhereHot

While you could certainly find examples where that is true, you can also find examples where it is false. Private(ly held) companies are under no obligation to publish how much they make, or how they spend what they make. The controlling interests could decide to pay out all the companies cash as payroll to themselves and create the illusion that the company is "not so profitable", when in reality, it is a hugely profitable company. (A grossly exaggerated example, to make a point.)

I didn't understand that either. Publicly held companies have a lot of expensive regulatory hassles, I think the biggest of which is SOX, and you avoid all that. Stockholder expectations can get unrealistic too.

[WiggyWack]

Didn't you guys hear that Steve's just going back to his home planet so he can come back and enslave us all?

[cacticritter]

Sj, sj, sj

[MacOutlaw]

Very good that Apple has stepped out and away from this trade show.
Now, they needn't announce on anyone's schedule except their own. No more announcing a product, due on said day, and it not arriving, causing all sorts of speculation.
They're in control, good for Apple!

The way it should be. I'm grateful for Macworld and their help over the years. We'll just be getting our news in different ways, we'll be thinking about it differently....


Pete

[paxman]

Originally Posted by GQB

Jeez... lighten up a bit. As much as I like Jobs, Apple needs to get beyond the cult of personality if its going to realize its potential.
I'm personally buyin', not cryin'.

Exactly - the world turns, day turns to night and Apple has hit the mainstream. I don't think this has anything to do with the 'tyranny' of MW but much more to do with Apple growing up. As long as Apple stays cool and cutting edge all will be well.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Misleading. Right now the whole market is down; even the car (foreign) manufacturers, unless you are getting a bail out like Ford and GM whose stock is up right now. (12/17/08:11:59 AM)

Last I heard, GM and Chrysler were begging for a bailout, not Ford.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Misleading. Right now the whole market is down; even the car (foreign) manufacturers, unless you are getting a bail out like Ford and GM whose stock is up right now. (12/17/08:11:59 AM)

While true that the overall market is down, thanks to yesterday's Fed move, Apple is down even more precipitously. Why in the world they couldn't wait until AFTER Macworld to make the announcement that it's their last show... I'd love to throttle Apple's PR department.