Outside chance of new consumer device at Macworld - analyst

[AppleInsider]

While acknowledging that expectations for next week's Macworld Expo are running relatively low, one Wall Street analyst believes there's an outside chance Apple will surprise show-goers with a new consumer oriented device.

Speaking to clients in a research note, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu said his latest round of supply chain checks lead him to believe Apple's announcements at the conference will center around new Macs and "potentially a sneak preview of Mac OS X 10.6 Leopard."

However, the analyst also cited "sources" as he echoed a pair of speculative reports (1, 2) from Apple bloggers this week, indicating the remote possibility that the Cupertino-based company may introduce a new "consumer device" that may be "an updated version of AppleTV and/or Time Capsule with enhanced capabilities including the ability to access personal content from anywhere on the Internet."

"Frankly, we would be a little surprised if there is a major announcement as we believe it would make better sense for Steve Jobs to do so himself at an Apple event," he said. "However, there is always the likelihood that Apple may surprise and send a message that Apple is a much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend."

Wu continues to believe that Apple is also hard at work on new, lower-cost iPhones and other larger form factor touchscreen devices, but doesn't expect those products to see daylight until sometime in the future.

"Our sense is that investor expectations [for Macworld] are fairly modest since it was announced that CEO Steve Jobs wouldn't be the keynote speaker," he added. "Nonetheless, we view new Macs as a positive catalyst as Apple's desktop business (iMac, Mac mini, Mac Pro) needs a refresh to re-ignite sales."

Meanwhile, the Kaufman Bros. analyst said his sources indicate that the recently refreshed MacBooks and MacBook Pros continue to experience robust demand. That said, he still called upon Apple to loosen its grip on premium pricing and introduce lower price points on some of its products given the macroeconomic environment.

"We continue to believe Apple is one of the better names to own in this tough macroeconomic environment, given its strong fundamentals," he said.

Wu maintains a Buy rating and $120 price target on shares of Apple.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[quinney]

Reasonable summary for Kaufman Bros clients who don't read rumor message boards.
Speaking of boards, why do I feel like hitting Shaw Wu with a 2 x 4 every time I read
one of his releases?

[aaarrrgggh]

The idea that SJ has to give a keynote for a major project likely goes against the whole goal of moving him out of that position; I would argue that the opposite is more likely-- a major product introduced by someone in the line to succession so people can see how great he is.

With a month to prepare for the keynote with good training, I think you could expect a great sales show from an ameture.

[Virgil-TB2]

I still don't see why Steve might not be doing the keynote but still invited on stage to demo a new product. Steve did the last keynote and invited both Ive and Phil on stage at different points.

Saying that there will be no new products because Steve Jobs is not doing the keynote is false reasoning to begin with, and to base an analysis on it just shows (yet again) how much hocus-pocus and general BS goes into the average financial analysts report.

Remember how every financial analyst in the US didn't see the recession coming? One is almost literally better off throwing animal bones and divining the result than listening to these guys.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2

I still don't see why Steve might not be doing the keynote but still invited on stage to demo a new product. Steve did the last keynote and invited both Ive and Phil on stage at different points.

Possible, it depends on how the release was worded. They might have hedged their wording a bit.

Remember how every financial analyst in the US didn't see the recession coming? One is almost literally better off throwing animal bones and divining the result than listening to these guys.

There were a few that did, but they were heckled for breaking with the crowd and were told they didn't know what they were talking about. Like every other culture, subculture, industry or trade, there is a risk of group think.

[SpamSandwich]

Phil presents this time, but he should call up Steve via iChat to give the "one more thing"...

[Cam'ron]

I think it is pretty absurd to assume no new products are coming because Mr. Jobs isn't doing the keynote. There are already rumours of new iMacs and Mac minis with great credibility. When Mr. Wu calls Mac OS 10.6 "Leopard" and not "Snow Leopard" then he has no credibility.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Cam'ron

I think it is pretty absurd to assume no new products are coming because Mr. Jobs isn't doing the keynote. There are already rumours of new iMacs and Mac minis with great credibility. When Mr. Wu calls Mac OS 10.6 "Leopard" and not "Snow Leopard" then he has no credibility.

I thought he lost his credibility years ago. He's just treading water now, watching the AI boards for more rumors he can peddle to his clueless clients.

[charlituna]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

"However, there is always the likelihood that Apple may surprise and send a message that Apple is a much broader and deeper company than one person, even if he/she is a living legend."

and given the recent history of having other folks on the stage during announcements, I'd said this is a certainty.

[crentist]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Phil presents this time, but he should call up Steve via iChat to give the "one more thing"...

Maybe not this keynote, but I imagine the ultimate one-more-thing would be an iChat call from Phil to Steve only to have Steve pop out from behind the stage revealing that he is video-chatting from his brand new iPhone video. How cool would that be? Kind of in the same vein as the iSight inclusion into the MacBook Pro like Steve-Phil did a couple of years ago.

This would be an instant stock jump of 15-20%

[JiveTurkey]

Reading this story, I had a vision of Schiller interrupted at the end of the keynote by a deafening bass beat seconds before Steve rolls out on the stage in a brand new Aston Martin with the top down, music blasting and an AT&T logo on the side… "Sorry I'm late, but I've brought one more thing… Ladies and gentlemen, meet the iPod car."

At least I can keep dreaming.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by crentist

Maybe not this keynote, but I imagine the ultimate one-more-thing would be an iChat call from Phil to Steve only to have Steve pop out from behind the stage revealing that he is video-chatting from his brand new iPhone video. How cool would that be? Kind of in the same vein as the iSight inclusion into the MacBook Pro like Steve-Phil did a couple of years ago.

This would be an instant stock jump of 15-20%

I'd love for that to happen. But there is one more thing... AAPL always drops after every keynote.

[MacTel]

I'd just be satisfied with iMac, Mac Mini, and Snow Leopard updates.

That short iPhone floating on the Internet would be a disappointment to me at least.

[ltcommander.data]

Personally, I was always of the opinion that with Apple pulling out of Macworld, they may try to usurp the show by holding some type of Apple Special Event back at Apple HQ sometime during Macworld to launch the radical new product, which will of course be hosted by Jobs. Or is that too vindictive of Jobs?

[walshbj]

They really need to find someone else to present or just drop the whole live presentation thing. Nobody they dragged up last time had the charisma. Ive might be cool but his presentation style is awkward at best. I actually thought it was painful to watch him speak about the unibody in that video - even though I thought the subject matter was interesting.

Jobs has a rare ability. Asking someone else to take over is asking for too much.

New products? Where are the rumors? We should have seen leaked pics by now. The biggest rumor this time around has been Wal-mart.

[crentist]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I'd love for that to happen. But there is one more thing... AAPL always drops after every keynote.

He he he. EXCEPT with the original iPhone announcement. The only stock to drop that day was RIM's. AAPL closed at an all-time high that day an kept rising all that week!

Probably won't happen until the network is faster anyway - but it does have to happen sometime. . . .

[Ireland]

Mac touch FTW?

[ncee]

Duh … really. Good guessing


Skip

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by Ireland

Mac touch FTW?

I really really REALLY think they should make this. But I don't know :

a. how do you type on it? thumbs?

b. how does it stand up when you're not holding it?

(i'm assuming your Mac Touch is in a tablet form factor....)

[Ireland]

Originally Posted by walshbj

I really really REALLY think they should make this. But I don't know :

a. how do you type on it? thumbs?

b. how does it stand up when you're not holding it?

(i'm assuming your Mac Touch is in a tablet form factor....)

How do you type on a keyboard when you're not holding it? This would be similar, it would have a pop-out stand Murph, pop it out and place Mac touch (tablet) on a desk or table where it rests on the stand at about 17º, a good angle for typing and looking at the screen at the same time, at least if you're not typing a full novel

Just like my mockup:

(only the stand is around the back obviously)



When not on your desk, but rather in your hands, you push the rear rest back into the device in the "hidden" position. Pop it out, pop it in - depending on how your using it at that moment. Example; on a doctor's desk, he'd have it out the whole time, resting on the desk.

Closed app store? Possibly.

[wizard69]

Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2

I still don't see why Steve might not be doing the keynote but still invited on stage to demo a new product. Steve did the last keynote and invited both Ive and Phil on stage at different points.

It is certainly possible. The thing is where are the leaks or solid rumors of a new product? Something that Steve and the rest of us can yet excited about.

I also think Apple will expand upon the last couple of years and simple schedule new releases every week for the first couple of months. This keeps the buzz going and spreads out demand on servers for software updates.

Sadly I really think that we will see a lot ofvhardware updates but no new platforms to deliver Mac OS/X or Mobile on. The only big if is Nano iPhone.

Saying that there will be no new products because Steve Jobs is not doing the keynote is false reasoning to begin with, and to base an analysis on it just shows (yet again) how much hocus-pocus and general BS goes into the average financial analysts report.

This is true to an extent, I actually believe Apple is being honest about it's approach which actually follows a general trend in industry.

The bigger issue in my mind is the lack of good sound leaks. Not rumors but good old fashion leaks of info. Currently there is nothing with the detail needed to get excited.

Remember how every financial analyst in the US didn't see the recession coming? One is almost literally better off throwing animal bones and divining the result than listening to these guys.

You must be a slave to the liberal media if you believe the above. There where many warnings as much as two years before the banks melted down. Many of those warnings where very specific about the issue with mortgages.

The problem with mortgages is that elements in both the Democrate & Republican parties pushed the idea that access to loans would be good for the development or redevelopment of blighted area. The idea being that ownership increases pride in the communities. There is one big problem here, people have to be able and willing to repay the loan. Many where not willing or able and frankly demonstrates that people in government don't understand the mindset of the welfare crowd. Coupled with that is the desire of many cities to keep property prices artificially high and you end up with simple math problems that lead to unsustainable markets.

What is funny is not more than a couple of weeks ago somebody in authority suggested that Detroit needs access to low cost loans. It is like they can't learn even during a depression.

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by Ireland

How do you type on a keyboard when you're not holding it? This would be similar, it would have a pop-out stand Murph, pop it out and place Mac touch (tablet) on a desk or table where it rests on the stand at about 17º, a good angle for typing and looking at the screen at the same time, at least if you're not typing a full novel

Just like my mockup:

(only the stand is around the back obviously)

(see Ireland post for image)

When not on your desk, but rather in your hands, you push the rear rest back into the device in the "hidden" position. Pop it out, pop it in - depending on how your using it at that moment. Example; on a doctor's desk, he'd have it out the whole time, resting on the desk.

Closed app store? Possibly.

Yeah - that's basically my point. I have trouble seeing a pop out stand that Jobs and Ives can live with. I think it needs a stand, because I foresee a lot of people using it with a wireless keyboard at times.
But you're saying type on its virtual keyboard while it's propped up a little, which sounds like it could be an ergonomic disaster. But maybe not, I hadn't thought of it that way before you said it. Leave it to Ireland... But now I can see needing two kinds of stand!

All of my conjecture is based on a device that's like a big iPod touch - maybe 6x8".

[wizard69]

Originally Posted by Ireland

How do you type on a keyboard when you're not holding it? This would be similar, it would have a pop-out stand Murph, pop it out and place Mac touch (tablet) on a desk or table where it rests on the stand at about 17º, a good angle for typing and looking at the screen at the same time, at least if you're not typing a full novel :

Your mock up is nice and all but way to big.

Some one posted a pic from 2001 A Space Odyssee ( however you spell it ) that closely summed up my desire. Close because something just a bit smaller would be nice. The ideais thin and as many pixels as possible. Frankly I still think of this as more of a Touch based device than a Mac. I still have trouble seeing the line up of Mac software working well on a Touch screen Mac. That and the idea that if Apple does go ARM for the coming Touch devices backward capability is not needed.

Actually I think Apple avoiding any sort of backward capability on the Touch devices is a good thing. It sparks innovation and fresh approaches to problem solving.

When not on your desk, but rather in your hands, you push the rear rest back into the device in the "hidden" position. Pop it out, pop it in - depending on how your using it at that moment. Example; on a doctor's desk, he'd have it out the whole time, resting on the desk.

Closed app store? Possibly.

Pop in or out, it doesn't overcome the primary issues that large tablets just don't have a market. They have never caught on primarily because they focused on trying to be a replacement for a desktop or laptop. That is a big mistake but Touch as in a grown up iPod is a fresh approach.


Dave

[winterspan]

The "Time Capsule" thing was stupid from the beginning. It should have been created and sold as a full-featured NAS device / storage server running a cutdown OSX.. They could no doubt use the iPhone OS foundation. It would use a simple interface integrated into OSX (or a simple web application) that allows it to act as a Time Machine backup, iTunes/UPnP media streamer, AFP/SMB/SAMBA File server for home/office, etc. It could be integrated with .Mac/MobileMe or use a lightweight VPN tunnel so you can connect to it from another Mac over the internet to access files at home.

Additionally, in combination with the Airport router, Apple could create a system for easily and securely accessing the device's storage over any web browser in the world. It would work like this:

1) The storage server would run a lightweight web server (like routers and other NAS devices) and would have a web-based AJAX interface for accessing stored files.
2) The storage server would communicate with the Airport router to get the internet-facing I.P. address for the broadband connection, and to setup port forwarding for getting through the firewall/NAT.
3) Apple's web infrastructure would be involved to provide a simple starting point to get the connection setup. A user would simply log into a special Apple website, perhaps just their mobile me account. Once logged in, the Apple server would verify that the user's home IP address is reachable and then just redirect the users browser to the proper address. The browser would then be connected to the storage server over SSL (just like any regular HTTPS website) and present the user with a simple AJAX interface for browsing and download/uploading files. So in effect, the sole purpose of Apple's server involvement is just to provide an easy "front door" to the storage server web interface without requiring users to remember an IP address and port number*. This is an important point --- Apple would NOT have access to your data, nor would any of your data pass through their servers.

Heck, I should make this into a product. I wonder if MS's "Windows Home Server" and their "Live" services has something like this.. If not, I should make it and sell it... don't steal my idea!


* This is especially important for most users of residential cable/satellite/wireless broadband which usually have dynamically assigned I.P. addresses that change everytime your router is rebooted.

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by winterspan

The "Time machine" thing was stupid from the beginning. It should have been created and sold as a full-featured NAS device / storage server running a cutdown OSX.. They could no doubt use the iPhone OS foundation. It would use a simple interface integrated into OSX (or a simple web application) that allows it to act as a Time Machine backup, iTunes/UPnP media streamer, AFP/SMB/SAMBA File server for home/office, etc. It could be integrated with .Mac/MobileMe or use a lightweight VPN tunnel so you can connect to it from another Mac over the internet to access files at home.

Additionally, in combination with the Airport router, Apple could create a system for easily and securely accessing the device's storage over any web browser in the world. It would work like this:

1) The storage server would run a lightweight web server (like routers and other NAS devices) and would have a web-based AJAX interface for accessing stored files.
2) The storage server would communicate with the Airport router to get the internet-facing I.P. address for the broadband connection, and to setup port forwarding for getting through the firewall/NAT.
3) Apple's web infrastructure would be involved to provide a simple starting point to get the connection setup. A user would simply log into a special Apple website, perhaps just their mobile me account. Once logged in, the Apple server would verify that the user's home IP address is reachable and then just redirect the users browser to the proper address. The browser would then be connected to the storage server over SSL (just like any regular HTTPS website) and present the user with a simple AJAX interface for browsing and download/uploading files. So in effect, the sole purpose of Apple's server involvement is just to provide an easy "front door" to the storage server web interface without requiring users to remember an IP address and port number*. This is an important point --- Apple would NOT have access to your data, nor would any of your data pass through their servers.

Heck, I should make this into a product. I wonder if MS's "Windows Home Server" and their "Live" services has something like this.. If not, I should make it and sell it... don't steal my idea!


* This is especially important for most users of residential cable/satellite/wireless broadband which usually have dynamically assigned I.P. addresses that change everytime your router is rebooted.

Time Machine was not "stupid from the beginning" - it got the masses backing up. There's nothing stupid about that.

[winterspan]

Originally Posted by walshbj

Time Machine was not "stupid from the beginning" - it got the masses backing up. There's nothing stupid about that.

Woops! I meant the "Time Capsule" device, not "Time machine" software... Time Machine is excellent!