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#1 |
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Kasper's Automated Slave
Join Date: Nov 1997
Posts: 6,165
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Investment firm believes Apple's building 4GB iPhones
A 4GB version of the iPhone once rumored to play a major role at Wal-Mart discount chains was a no-show in 2008, though one Wall Street analyst now says there's evidence the device may turn up this year.
Previewing Apple's earnings report due next Wednesday, UBS's Manyard Um said he's concerned that iPhone shipments for the December holiday quarter could come in below his 5 million unit estimate, representing a considerable sequential decline from the 6.9 million units shipped during the September quarter. However, "our UBS semis team and our checks indicate a new 4GB iPhone which may be helping to increase build rates," he wrote in a report to clients. Specifically, Apple's said to have placed manufacturing orders for 7 million iPhones in each of the first two calendar quarters, 5 million in the third quarter, and 4 million in the fourth quarter, all of which are seen as "relatively good numbers." Still, the analyst took pause to caution his investment clients over the volatility of these said build rates, which "have seen cuts in the past and may change" or drive volume iPhone shipments at the expense of the company's historically high average selling prices (ASPs) and gross margins. "Additionally, sell-through remains a concern and although we think a 4GB version would stimulate demand, we think it would likely cannibalize both the 8GB & 16GB models and the iPod Touch to a lesser extent," he added. Based on some quick number crunching, Um estimates that pure cannibalization by a potential 4GB iPhone with no incremental elasticity would negatively impact fiscal year 2009 pro forma per share earnings by $0.27. However, should the advent of a 4GB model drive an incremental 1.5 million unit sales, it would offset this impact assuming Apple maintains 40 percent profit margins on the device, he said. That's a big if, according to the analyst, who said his "main concern remains the potential macro impact on Apple's business given its high ASPs." Although recent MacBook refreshes helped drive some momentum last quarter, he remains "concerned that consumer spending will ultimately hit Apple’s high-end products more materially," potentially applying downward pressure to ASPs and gross margins. For the just-ended December quarter, Um expects revenues to fall within the guided range of $9-$10 billion thanks to the MacBook refreshes and reseller holiday promotions. He sees gross margin coming in better than the 30-31 percent guidance due to better-than-expect commodity pricing, and estimates per-share earnings to be at or above the high end of the guided $1.06-$1.35 range. In his report to clients, Um did not specify the breed of iPhone that's rumored to arrive with 4GB of storage, and there's an outside chance his findings could be related to persistent reports of an "iPhone nano," which was most recently rumored to be a device that may cater to international markets that demand certain concessions on Apple's part. In December, there were also rumors that discount chain Wal-Mart would begin selling a 4GB iPhone at a greatly reduced price of $99. The reports did not materialize. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $110 price target on shares of Apple. Separately on Wednesday, JPMorgan analyst Mark Moskowitz lowered his price target on the Cupertino-based company to $102 from $104, citing weakening demand for the iPhone overseas. "Our conversations with industry contacts suggest that U.S. demand pull for iPhone has held but that Europe has softened," he said. |
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#2 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 644
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Now, why on earth would Apple produce a 4gb iPhone. The cost savings cannot be that great. Its like Apple decided to produce a 60gb MacBook Pro to cut costs. It makes no sense. It makes sense to create a lesser model with 4gb, but not a straight up iPhone. 8gb is pushing the lowest acceptable storage limit as it is.
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#3 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 502
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How long was I asleep? Is it still 2007?
File Encryption Tools Built Into Your Mac
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#4 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Tinton Falls, NJ
Posts: 702
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Quote:
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#5 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 502
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Quote:
It's too big a step backwards for too little gain.
File Encryption Tools Built Into Your Mac
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#6 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 74
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Idiot Analysts
DUPLICATE-Sorry
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#7 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 74
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Idiot Analysts
I don't know why ANY of these guys don't talk about true cost of ownership of a 3G. I have 2-on a family plan-my cell bill is $130 before taxes which includes ONLY 200 text messages per line.
I really don't see how a $99 phone will spur that many more buyers. This $100 price reduction brings cost of ownership over a 2 year period for a single line plan from $2,000 to $1,900-hardly enough to spur some rush to ownership ($30/month data, $40/month voice, 200 SMS). If Apple wants to sell a LOT of iPhones-someone there needs to get with AT$T and offer some sort of affordable data plan (like $15) coupled with some sort of affordable SMS plan (like $5 for unlimited). THAT would spur ownership. Total 2 year cost would still be $1,540-which is a lot-But nearly $500 less than now and would include unlimited SMS. Course, AT$T would never go for it-they are the M$ of the cell phone world and they just gotta have that extra $500 over two years... |
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#8 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 331
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I know several people who don't use their iPhone for music and/or video. If you're only using the iPhone as a phone, 4GB is plenty.
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#9 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 240
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At this point a lower priced handset is not going to bring any more people to the iPhone buffet. I think they have pretty much gotten all the people who like the iPhone and are willing to pay the subscription rates that go with it. The next bump in sales will only come with significantly lower subscription rates. Or perhaps even an iPhone with voice-only service plus wifi and GPS. I'd go for that one.
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#10 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 1,068
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I have a 16GB iPhone and my wife have a 8GB iPhone. I have around 9GB of used space and my wife have 1.5GB used! We have exactly the same music and photo libraries. I keep all my music and half my photos in my iPhone but she only have few songs and few photos. She never exceeded the 2GB mark and therefore a $50 to $100 saving for 4GB would have been nice. Not everyone buys an iPhone for music. Most people want the internet, mail, and/or Apps.
Nasser
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#11 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Location: 0aktown
Posts: 9,249
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Quote:
People really, really need to get off this "iPhone rates are outrageous" thing. If you have a problem with prevailing data costs, fine. But it's not unique to the iPhone.
party's over
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#12 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 2,481
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Quote:
The only possible way I could see this happening is if AT&T and Apple wanted a cheap device for the pay as you go market that doesn't seriously encroach on iPhone's feature set. The rumored Nano could be a sign of such a device. That is a cell phone targetted at an entirely different marketing program. Nano would then be a device specifically engineered not to appeal to current iPhone buyers, probably by supporting 2 G only. In any event the number one issue is they falling price of flash in general. In the short term I expect Apple will simply bump up baseline capacity in the iPhone's, it just doesn't make sense to go backwards in most cases. The exception here is if Apple has an improved iPhone in the wings and this 4GB would then become the low end iPhone. For a new high end iPhone it should be possible for Apple to cram a lot of stuff into a new iPhone considering some of the technologybreleases I've seen. This new iPhone would be easily differentiated from the current model. Such a phone could be improved all around from processor core to camera to wifi hardware and everything else. This would make the 4GB iPhone the poo' mans iPhone. Dave |
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#13 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 5
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I know where you're at here. I stood in line at launch, the store sold out of 16GB phones so I picked up an 8GB instead. My old BlackBerry's screen was broken for about two months at that point and I just desperately wanted a phone. So, I settled. Whoops!
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#14 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 502
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Quote:
And back to an earlier point made above: This does virtually NOTHING for total cost of ownership. $100 off a two year contract - what's the point? I admit I'm surprised at how many people disagree with me. But I still think a size as small as 4GB would be more of a deterrent than a boon.
File Encryption Tools Built Into Your Mac
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#15 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 26
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The cost of the handset is a non-issue to most people. It's a one-time expense, and pales in comparison to the ongoing cost of the device.
Whether the cost is $100 or $300 for the device, you're still on the hook for a minimum of ~$2000 for two years of service. Show me a reasonably featured iphone plan for ~$50/mo and I'll show you your millions of new subscribers. |
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#16 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Southern California
Posts: 48
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Quote:
![]() If anything all the complaints about how expensive the iPhone data plan is makes you realize that the iPhone is exposing smartphones to people that have never looked into them and their offered plans before, which can only make smartphone marketshare rise not flatten out. Last edited by silverpraxis; 01-14-2009 at 12:01 PM.. Reason: added more thoughts |
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#17 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 502
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$1 per day for unlimited data? I have no problem with that. But it should include texting.
File Encryption Tools Built Into Your Mac
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#18 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
Posts: 959
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Quote:
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#19 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Reston, VA
Posts: 367
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Well its obviously for iPhone Nano.
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iWant new iProduct
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#20 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: SoCal
Posts: 941
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It is unfortunate that data is so expensive. I remember racking up hundreds of dollars a month on Compuserve in the early days before the Internet was widely available. Now that kind of service is $10. At some point I would love to see free, city wide, secure, wifi instead. Of course I would settle for just more bike lanes but I'm probably not going to get that either, especially in this economy.
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#21 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Southern California
Posts: 48
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Quote:
People are willing to pay current prices for the current services. Maybe when current data plan pricing has saturated the market, the big telcos will decrease the price to stimulate more market growth. I wish that was soon, but I highly HIGHLY doubt it. |
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#22 | |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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Quote:
It might even cost Apple more than they are saving by adding a SKU and putting it into the distribution chain, more complexity, tracking more inventory and so on. For what? Apple's costs won't go down and and people think they're going to convince Apple to give up $50-$100 of profit? Apple is used to selling lower volume products to get a higher margin, like with their Macs, even if sales did go down, I don't think they will feel they have to cut their prices so much just to keep the same flow of customers. There is absolutely no burden to having too much space (too much space is often better than not enough space), and no benefit to Apple for providing one with less space at a lower price. So why why all this clamor? I just don't see how the numbers could add up to be a win for Apple and a win for customers. I could be wrong, but if I am wrong, I would expect that there are externalities that just aren't accounted for in this discussion. Last edited by JeffDM; 01-14-2009 at 01:21 PM.. |
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#23 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 374
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Quote:
A 4gb phone would save Apple almost nothing and therefore change the pricing almost nothing. This stuff started a year ago, and the people carrying it forward are dumber'n a bag a hammers. If you follow Apple's progression at all, you know the next thing coming is a 32gb phone. More capacity, not less. |
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#24 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 859
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Quote:
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#25 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 859
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Then why did they waste their money on an iPhone if they are only using it as a phone? They are really missing out on the iPhone's full capability.
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#26 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 859
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I currently pay $60/month for my iPhone (16 GB Original), and that's only $20 more than what I was paying before with my Moto Razr. I have plenty of minutes for my use, with rollover, and data and text messaging. I do think there should be an option for 3G use, and for those that don't want it, can pay the original $20 data plan with Edge only.
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#27 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: ASHLAND, KY
Posts: 1,819
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AT&T wants a cheaper iphone for their data plan, NOW lets talk margin, if ATT is saying to apple we'll pay $$$so we can grow this data plan. but what ATT may REALLY want is that
2 YEAR CONTRACT......as this market gets mature, then its not the phone cost that matters at all as many have said.....this happened some time ago when the iphone was rumored, verizon et all were pushing lower cost 2 YEAR AND SOME 3 YEAR CONTRACTS to lock in the customer this also doesn't follow the ipod path, different form factors, more capability like voice dialing cut paste tethering BT with keyboards and other BT expansion but data rates need to come down (that is the limiting cost for many) , but where is the competitive pressure to do so at least in the USA i could see this if another bango hot iphone upgrade came in june and then you have the stairstep function, and less reliance on the form factor. maybe SJ can't make a funtional "value" to customer "nano" maybe the iphone is ideal in size. i don't think so, if you had a basic ipod nano with, minimal phone capablility, texting, (wifi +/- different models) wifi, and some storage, it could be 2g (and bulk up the 2g network....not) then i could see a place for a 4gb 2g wifi iphone. work that click wheel like these teens work the number pad, hey it would be a new "thing". hey you could make the ipod nano screen with a click go to dialer...hmmm now that would be sweet. what market are they going after with this anyway, if data plans stay as is??
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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#28 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 308
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Ok, companies like Apple buy large quantities of components to save on cost. So, you get 8gb & 16gb nanos, iPhones and iPod touches. There is also a 32gb touch which uses 2 16gb flash chips. Nowhere in there are 4gb chips. This makes a 4gb iPhone incredibly unlikely. As a financial guy he should know this. What a tool.
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#29 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 457
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All this silly talk about a iPhone Nano is really referring to a Touch Nano. Sheeeesh.
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#30 | |||
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 1,068
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Quote:
Quote:
Why do you want that $3000 bonus? it is nothing compared to what you make in your life time!! $100 might not sound much but you can pay your first month cell phone bill with it, buy two iPods shuffle, fill your car with gas at least twice, or .... etc. For some people $100 is much (even for some of those who bought iPhones). I know many students in our university campus who have iPhones and take loans to pay for tuition and books. I am not disagreeing with you for the sake of disagreeing with you. I was just stating my point of view, a lower price iPhone will increase sales. Quote:
Nasser
Last edited by NasserAE; 01-14-2009 at 02:41 PM.. |
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#31 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Ireland
Posts: 8,562
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The iPhone nano won't have 8GB, so you weren't asleep.
Collecting my SSD iMac Fry-die. :D
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#32 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Location: 0aktown
Posts: 9,249
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Quote:
Before the iPhone, the only people dealing with smart phones kind of knew what they were getting into and were willing to pony up for the functionality.
party's over
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#33 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 502
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You're right, I admit it. When people desperately want to buy something they can't afford they'll take almost anything as justification for the purchase.
File Encryption Tools Built Into Your Mac
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#34 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 331
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Quote:
Some people like using a phone with a big screen and nice UI. Why should they be obliged to use every feature on a device? |
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#35 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: nl eu
Posts: 1,174
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It's simple, to push iPhone sales Apple will sell the 8GB with a lower price tag not a 4GB, 16GB for 8GB price
and a new 32GB iPhone 3G for 16GB price starting in February 2009. Next generation iPhone in June/July 2009 with 16GB and 32GB ![]()
alles sal reg kom
Last edited by gar; 01-14-2009 at 05:33 PM.. Reason: stupid typoos |
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#36 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1
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NO 4 gb iphone
There is no way Apple is coming with a 4 GB nano. This would blow when it comes to the Apple App store. Once Apple has 16 GB as the standard, then maybe a 8gb for a nano. Apps is one of the leading reasons people will buy one in the first place for consumer level. 4 gb will not get it done unless it was removable.
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#37 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4
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4gb is useless and outdated imo
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#38 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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How is this silly meme still alive? The typical app is about the size of a typical music file. It takes a lot of apps to make a noticeable dent in usable space.
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#39 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2002
Location: 0aktown
Posts: 9,249
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Quote:
Not unusable, by any means, but I can't remember a time Apple offered any machine with less stock memory than the lowest current model, just to hit a price point. Make the existing middle the new low end when you add a new model, and drop the old lower end completely, yes. Add a new model at the same price as the old model and drop the price on the old model, yes. But not go back a generation, spec wise, to create a new low end.
party's over
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#40 |
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Global Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: .US
Posts: 9,127
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I agree, but my point with the previous post was that the notion that iPhone apps taking a lot of space just doesn't hold. There are a few big ones, but most of them that I've seen are very tiny.
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