Apple's iPhone may have outsold Android nearly 6-to-1

[AppleInsider]

While Apple may not have had the strongest of holiday sales for Macs and iPods, estimates for sales of iPhone 3G versus T-Mobile's G1 may show Apple's device having outsold one of its closest competitors by a ratio of six to one in the US alone.

Morgan Stanley has issued both research notes and a survey ahead of Apple's quarterly results report that paint a mixed picture for the Cupertino-based electronics maker, but which show the iPhone as favorable all the same.

Based on polls of recent cellphone buyers, the analyst firm believes T-Mobile USA may have sold upwards of 300,000 of its touchscreen G1 handsets from launch in late October through to the end of 2008. In contrast, even Morgan Stanley's prediction of about 1.75 million iPhone 3G units sold through AT&T is about 5.9 times greater than what T-Mobile is believed to have managed.

A number of factors play into the wide gap between the two. Apple's handset had the full run of the quarter as well as significantly longer time to establish its reputation. AT&T also counts a significantly larger subscriber base as well as a much more established 3G data network to encourage sales. T-Mobile's faster data speeds reached only 25 major coverage areas by the end of the year versus over 300 for its challenger.

Worldwide figures aren't mentioned in the survey, though Apple's advantage widens here with over 70 countries selling iPhones where only the UK could sell the G1 outside of the US.

And outside of the cellular industry, Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty cautions that Apple is liable to show relatively disappointing though not catastrophic performance. Apple's Mac sales are estimated to have grown 4 percent year-over-year in December, which is strong in a weak economy but significantly below the 10 percent predicted for the PC business as a whole.

In a consolation to Apple, Huberty notes that Hewlett-Packard fared worse and watched its sales slide 5 percent versus the same month in 2007. The Mac's creator also saw its inventory levels drop to as little as three days where many others' accumulated as customers held off on purchases.

iPod sales are also forecast as partly contradictory. Sales in December may have dropped 9 percent compared to the year before but may still have resulted in a slight market share gain to 71 percent of the entire US market.

[hmurchison]

Android= ass kicked

[columbus]

From anecdotal observation in the UK: Apple and O2 have had an outstanding Christmas period with iPhone 3G.

I haven't seen a single G1 in the wild.

I'd like to see what other users have noticed.

[RichL]

Originally Posted by columbus

I haven't seen a single G1 in the wild.

I'd like to see what other users have noticed.

I've seen one. But, to be fair, I didn't see many iPhones for the first six months of its life and now they're as common as muck in the UK.

I'm still waiting for the first really compelling Android device. The G1 is nice for a software point-of-view but the hardware stinks. I'm trying to think of who will deliver the first mainstream Android phone and the only name that springs to mind is Sony Ericsson. Their record with smartphones is exactly anything to write home about over the past few years though.

[cameronj]

If that's true, and the ratio is only 6 to 1, it has to be considered a incredible success for the Android phone.

[Booga]

Originally Posted by columbus

From anecdotal observation in the UK: Apple and O2 have had an outstanding Christmas period with iPhone 3G.

I haven't seen a single G1 in the wild.

I'd like to see what other users have noticed.

I was with a couple friends a couple weeks ago and it was 2 G1's to 1 iPhone. Of course, they both worked for Google and got their phones free.

The Android plan is a long-term one, though. Getting too complacent over one quarter isn't a good idea. Being a GPL'ed device, there are more libraries and data sources available to G1 developers. In a few iterations they'll probably have a pretty compelling product that will have a solid developer ecosystem. AT&T is bigger than T-Mobile, but everyone-else-combined is bigger than AT&T.

[hmurchison]

I think Android will do better when it gets better hardware but let's be honest.


Android had absolutely no Killer Feature. The marketing of Android mainly consisted of mentioning Google owns it and that it's open source.

What exact magic bullet were people expecting? I fail to see where open source delivers anything special when it's confined by the draconian policy of the networks.

The iPhone shows that to enjoy incredible success you have to be more than a phone. You have to forge an eco system. The iPhone has done this via parlaying ipod success into a ramp for iPhone success.

Everyone expects an iPhone killer with just a phone...yawn. I need more than a phone I need a platform.

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by Booga

I was with a couple friends a couple weeks ago and it was 2 G1's to 1 iPhone. Of course, they both worked for Google and got their phones free.

The Android plan is a long-term one, though. Getting too complacent over one quarter isn't a good idea. Being a GPL'ed device, there are more libraries and data sources available to G1 developers. In a few iterations they'll probably have a pretty compelling product that will have a solid developer ecosystem. AT&T is bigger than T-Mobile, but everyone-else-combined is bigger than AT&T.

I agree.

Personally, I find Android's UI to be kind of ho-hum at the moment and the G1's hardware quality barely above that of a rusty washing machine, but in the long run Android has a very good chance of being the only real compelling alternative to the iPhone.

Open source is a long term game and if Android has enough time to prove itself it will almot certainly be a winner IMO.

[Macfabulous]

Buy stocks today! After The Mac’s 25th Anniversary on tuesday, the stock will soar!!! I tell you! (Secret product release)

"We will extend an open hand to all those who will unclench their fists" - Go Obama!!!

Bring that iPhone of yours to the White House...

[bdkennedy1]

I love headlines that have "may have" in them, completely negating the validity of the story.

[Isomorphic]

I have a G1. I sold my original hacked iPhone just before the 3G model came out--getting back what I paid for it.

The iPhone is glossy and the UI is the best on the market. On the other hand, you're definitely playing in Apple's sandbox. It's Apple and AT&T's phone--not yours--and they never stop letting you know that.

The G1 has a certain amount of tie-in to Google, but at least I can drop a foreign SIM in and make a call. (T-Mobile unlocks phones for customers in good standing. What a concept.)

Frankly, the G1's hardware keyboard coupled with the full touch screen *is* a killer feature in my book. The on-screen keyboard for the iPhone in portrait mode is a joke. In landscape mode it's nice, but it uses most of the screen. A perfect example of this that an ssh app for the G1 (ConnectBot) is actually usable.

Is Apple still charging to develop for its phone? Do you still have to ask for their permission to distribute an app?

Let's put it this way: If Apple were to charge for Mac development, require permission to distribute Mac apps, and tie the Mac's networking only to AOL--people would be ticked. Why do people tolerate obnoxious corporate behavior on their cell phones?

[anantksundaram]

The iPhone has changed this market, and changed the conversation, period. At this point, in this segment of the market, the rest are also-rans.

That may - and probably will - change in the future, but right now the iPhone stands alone.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Isomorphic

Let's put it this way: If Apple were to charge for Mac development, require permission to distribute Mac apps, and tie the Mac's networking only to AOL--people would be ticked. Why do people tolerate obnoxious corporate behavior on their cell phones?

Cell provider's networks aren't public infrastructures.

Apple charges money because they host the apps which takes bandwidth and storage of wich neither is free.

Apple must also play in that sandbox that is owned by AT&T.

Just because the android OS is open source doesn't mean that developers will be able to create anything.

Android "Kill Switch"

Originally Posted by Engadget

"Google may discover a product that violates the developer distribution agreement ... in such an instance, Google retains the right to remotely remove those applications from your device at its sole discretion"

Yeah....it's open<sarcasm>

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by Isomorphic

I have a G1. ... Is Apple still charging to develop for its phone? ...

Your whole post is a pretty nasty piece of work, but the implication that Apple "charges" you to develop for the iPhone is particularly misleading nonsense.

[UralBas]

Once all final numbers are in we shall see.

This year the Iphone is the in thing to have... under certain logic I can see it is what most people that follow fads want to have.

Second thing that needs to be kept in mind.. you are comparing a final product like the Iphone 3G with a beta product the G1. So this is expected.

Fact is, 1 million G1's were sold in 3 days less then the iphone (71 to 74 days). Which goes to prove that the G1 was a success,

http://www.googleandblog.com/android...n-iphone/3564/

My personal experience is that I do know 2 people out of about 10000 that I have dealt with since early Dec 2008 that have bought an Iphone, in the same period I know of 5 people that have gotten a G1.

One big drawback is the G1 is battery life.. you need a suppercharged 2400 mA battery to make it work properly, but they do their job well.

The long standing problem is not the G1 .. its Android.... a lot more manufactures will produce Android based phones and that is the issue. G1 is only the first of many more to come.

[iVlad]

I though it would be like 30-to-1. Android is not anywhere near to compete. Its a platform. Only developers are excited about it and know about it. Public don't even know that Google makes applications for phone.

Android will never be an iPhone killer because for that it has to meet ALL features that iPhone has plus many more to kill it. I haven't seen a phone that can kill iPhone. (or am I missing something?)

[mdriftmeyer]

Originally Posted by cameronj

If that's true, and the ratio is only 6 to 1, it has to be considered a incredible success for the Android phone.

Horescrap. It has to be considered a success when T-Mobile USA reveals the sales for the phones it actually sells. Let's see how it faired against the Blackberry and Windows Mobile phones.

If T-Mobile USA sold iPhones the gap of total G1 phones sold in the US would be even greater.

[alpha10711]

Originally Posted by cameronj

If that's true, and the ratio is only 6 to 1, it has to be considered a incredible success for the Android phone.

Absolutely. T-Mobile + Google don't have the advertising presence that Apple + AT&T do. I haven't even seen ANY ads for the Android phone; have there been any? Plus a lot of people don't want to switch to T-Mobile's network. All things considered, the figures for the Android phone are better than I expected.

[Booga]

Is Apple still charging to develop for its phone? Do you still have to ask for their permission to distribute an app?

Let's put it this way: If Apple were to charge for Mac development, require permission to distribute Mac apps, and tie the Mac's networking only to AOL--people would be ticked. Why do people tolerate obnoxious corporate behavior on their cell phones?

Oh please. Yes, you have to pay $99. Google subsidizes their SDK with search engine cash, while Apple subsidizes theirs with iPhone profit, because $99 sure doesn't begin to cover everything you get (including 2 support incidents with actual Apple engineers.) $99 is really cheap.

And no, you don't have to ask permission, but Apple can veto apps. They appear to have actually done so in about 0.01% of apps so far. In the meantime, it's virtually impossible not to at least break even developing for the platform even starting from nothing.

So Google will get the idealistic developers and Apple will get the ones who want to start businesses. We'll see whether idealism or money sustains these developers longer.

[Booga]

Originally Posted by alpha10711

Absolutely. T-Mobile + Google don't have the advertising presence that Apple + AT&T do. I haven't even seen ANY ads for the Android phone; have there been any? Plus a lot of people don't want to switch to T-Mobile's network. All things considered, the figures for the Android phone are better than I expected.

I've seen a lot. Ones with twins asking if they have the same fingerprints or something and suggesting looking it up on your cellphone. They were pretty bad ads-- you might have seen them and just forgotten.

[addabox]

Originally Posted by Booga

I've seen a lot. Ones with twins asking if they have the same fingerprints or something and suggesting looking it up on your cellphone. They were pretty bad ads-- you might have seen them and just forgotten.

I don't understand the ads for the G1- the pitch seems to be that it has a browser and you can look stuff up. As if it hasn't occured to anyone that having a functional browser on your cellphone is useful.

Doesn't seem like a compelling differentiator, at this point.

[KenC]

Originally Posted by UralBas

Once all final numbers are in we shall see.

Fact is, 1 million G1's were sold in 3 days less then the iphone (71 to 74 days). Which goes to prove that the G1 was a success,

http://www.googleandblog.com/android...n-iphone/3564/

Yes, when the numbers are all in, we SHALL see.

Funny how your "fact" is garbage. Just keep clicking back to the source of the 1M figure. It's a reputed manufacturer estimate of how many G1s would be made by the end of 2008, back in November. Hardly a number to hang one's hat on as a "fact".

The fact is, there was no way the G1 would ever sell as quickly as the original iPhone. The iPhone could be used all over the US, wherever EDGE was available. T-Mo's 3G network was only up and running in 15 cities when the G1 launched. No matter how good the G1 is/was, it was not going to sell 1M when the launch was so small.

[KenC]

What I really love about cellphone ads is that ALL of the screenshots are "SIMULATED"! Just look at the fine print when the ads start. Yes, the Blackberry Storm = simulated. The HTC G1 = simulated. The BB Bold = simulated. Etc., etc., etc. Of course the only cellphone ad where there is no need for a disclaimer are iPhone ads.

[MacTel]

When is Apple's quarterly financial call? All of these speculated numbers but aren't we a day or week away from knowing the actuals?

[os2baba]

I sold my 3G iPhone as well. I really liked it. But I love the G1 much more. The iPhone certainly has a slicker more consistent UI, but the physical keyboard on the G1 alone is enough. The G1 is as responsive, has plenty of cool free apps (although they need to do something about the comment section of the Android Market), is open (I installed a friend's software from a file he sent me by mail) and highly extensible. The hardware is okay. But the Android IMO is superior to the iPhone and Apple had better watch out. In my group at work, in October, about 10 or so of us had iPhones. Today two of us have switched to the G1 and four more have bought the G1. So the iPhones still outnumber the G1s, but it doesn't bode well in the long term for Apple, unless they change some policies (the phone is fine).

[sflocal]

Just face it, Android - although welcomed - has only one thing going for it and that is a high-geek factor. Their current v1 iteration is quite fugly hardware-wise so it comes to no surprise that it is not a big player yet. Don't get me wrong, a lot a geeks have iPhones too but it is also a more consumer-popular product which is what Apple had the advantage in terms of getting mass-acceptance.

I think Android will be a niche player in the long run only because the phone manufacturers will not play well with the software developers and it will become too fragmented. It has been shown in the past and I believe the companies will go down kicking and screaming before they hand over the keys to everything in their products.

Like it or not, Apple does well because it has total control over the hardware and software and they really do stand out among smart phones. I wonder what was Google thinking when their first phone was introduced. It was nowhere near prime time on both the hardware and software front.

The argument that it was Google's first attempt doesn't hold water here. I mean honestly, put Apple's v1.0 iPhone next to Google's v1.0 phone and just on the complete user experience, looks, quality, etc., Apple had a much more polished first-time product.

And don't even start with the 1.x firmware problems the iPhone had. That's a different subject. How many phones were sold by Apple in its first quarter of introduction compared to Google even with the buggy iPhone firmware and no App Store?

[ThinkAdrian]

Well, the iPhone has had a marketing campain for more than a year, and the Android has had how much? I don't think these statistics say anything about how good the phones are.

[hiimamac]

I love my iPhone 3G but still, no cut and paste and turn by turn. I have given up on the bugs or when browsing, it just closes. Still, nothing comes close.

To be fair though, Android has not been out long and Palm Pre rumored to be $119 looks like the bomb.

I think Apple will be playing catch up sooner rather than later - note the rumored iPhone price cuts. Unlike OS X and Mac hardware, developers are going to use Android and software like the palms in droves. You watch. I've never been wrong. Apple can loose market share in this business fast, especially since companies like Palm will price very agressivly as will Android developers. In addition, there are many PEEVED Apple app store developers who got shunned or told NO by Apple and are gladly developing for the open sourced platforms.

We think the iPhone is all that and a bag of chips and it is, for now anyway, but the problem is, it's Apple and everything about them is CLOSE ENDED and in the end, as TV transitions into mobile devices, companies are going to stream video, create HD phones, GPS turn by turn and offer devices that record TV and closed ended systems, App Store and Apple TV (and to some respect mac computers) will lose marketshare and some will go the way of the doo doo bird, ala Apple TV. One of the biggest failures since the Cube.

Just telling you like it is as its unfair to compare an Android OS that hasn't really seen the light of day. IMHO, Palm is going to come out like a hurricane and it looks to be really great.

Remember, whomever creates the OS with streaming TV, real time, high end content towers, ends up the winner and in Apples circle of NON FREE, CLOSE ENDED, DEVELOPERS CANNOT TALK TO DEVELOPERS, I see them going back down to 3-5%. Only if Jobs stays away and the marketing "GETS IT" will Apple do well.

Right now is not the time for high end, close minded, proprietary hardware and displays that have DRM built in just won't cut it.

[ivan.rnn01]

when g1 will become a real phone... then loose infrastructure and non-working applications will ruin g1...

[hiimamac]

Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01

when g1 will become a real phone...

Oh and for those that think Android won't have sleek phones, one simply has to google Android, actually, no, you wouldn't get this story, you would have to have heard it on a TECH pod cast but believe you me, Android is in its infacy as is Web streaming TV/Movies/Entertainment and Apples solutions for this are all proprietary/closed ended.

Here is a story from the iPhone LEAD developer working on a touchscreen HOME phone:

http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2009/01/ni..._engineer.html

Apple had better wake up and stop worry about petty things such as the <1% of the market = PRO users wanting to use a Macbook for Pro Apps therefore removing firewire or changing on-board GMA on the last model to one that went from 171% to 70% simply due to websites like barefeats reporting you could run motion/shake (still no games) so Apple onlt crippled it to hit the PRO users and force them to buy high end. Sorry Apple but times are tough, others are catching up and you iPhone developers and App developers you shunned, not to mention the billions in TV crossnet internet programming coming, does not bode well.

They have to start thinking outside the box -Apple is becoming STALE and are reaching a plateau.

More products had better come and probably will before Jobs returns (highly unlikey as we will hear the truth that he is not doing well), giving the impression Apple is fine when in fact, it was Jobs that planned this ever since the bailing of Mac World. All the rumors sites were 100% dead wrong, yet the OS showed updated hardware. This is due to Apple pulling the products with plans on releasing down the road while Steve is gone.

C'mon Apple, start to bring back the "Think Different" and in order to compete, they will have to price aggressive- watch, as many investors will say this in about 1~1.5 years. Look for Apple to get to $55.00 unless new products come out.

[ivan.rnn01]

Originally Posted by hiimamac

Android is in its infacy

so, no headphones right now... i see...

believe you me,

sorry for my english... pray stay patient

[Carniphage]

Originally Posted by hiimamac

...Apples circle of NON FREE, CLOSE ENDED, DEVELOPERS CANNOT TALK TO DEVELOPERS...

Developers who blog about freedom, you're in Room A.
Developers who want to make big chunks of cash, you're in Room B.

OK OK, Room B is getting really crowded. Standing room only guys.

Room A please read this:

http://www.engadget.com/2008/10/01/a...ps-iphone-nda/

Please guys, don't all rush into Room B.

C.

[RichL]

Originally Posted by KenC

What I really love about cellphone ads is that ALL of the screenshots are "SIMULATED"! Just look at the fine print when the ads start. Yes, the Blackberry Storm = simulated. The HTC G1 = simulated. The BB Bold = simulated. Etc., etc., etc. Of course the only cellphone ad where there is no need for a disclaimer are iPhone ads.

Except in the UK, where Apple have had several ads banned and the rest have big disclaimers at the bottom.

[MH01]

Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer

Horescrap. It has to be considered a success when T-Mobile USA reveals the sales for the phones it actually sells. Let's see how it faired against the Blackberry and Windows Mobile phones.

If T-Mobile USA sold iPhones the gap of total G1 phones sold in the US would be even greater.

PigsAss..... if AT&T sold G1s being the much bigger network...what then??? have a think about it...

At 6 to 1 the the G1 has done very well. The G1 is just not there, from a hardware / usability point of view, with new devices being released this year i can only see sales going up. Also the G1 is going to be bought by people with 1/2 a brain while the Iphone is fad right now. If a new phone comes out that appeals to the Fad crowd, the iphone will be the big looser, while people buying G1s are not buying cause it hip and cool....as can be seen by the current G1.

[MH01]

Originally Posted by KenC

What I really love about cellphone ads is that ALL of the screenshots are "SIMULATED"! Just look at the fine print when the ads start. Yes, the Blackberry Storm = simulated. The HTC G1 = simulated. The BB Bold = simulated. Etc., etc., etc. Of course the only cellphone ad where there is no need for a disclaimer are iPhone ads.

Thank god my 3g iphone is twice as fast as my original iphone.... Now if only the rest of the industry was as honest as Apple marketing the world would be a much happier place..

[markb]

I might have a hazy memory but...doesnt this analyst have the WORST track record for predicting AAPL results of any of them out there? Take what she says with a block of salt.

[Xian Zhu Xuande]

Originally Posted by cameronj

If that's true, and the ratio is only 6 to 1, it has to be considered a incredible success for the Android phone.

I was thinking the same thing. Anywhere near 6 to 1 is a huge success for the Android phone...

[rain]

Apple has brand.
Android has geek fetish.

Does anything else need to be said?

Until Google gets a name for hardware, they will not be a competitor. Most consumers are not looking at 'software' first. They want the hardware, they pay for the shinny. Software is the nice after thought. This trend is changing, and Apple is leading the way, by offering both.

There is a changing trend among us geeks, but main stream consumerism is looking at hardware and brand first over fringe products.
I believe the HDD vs Blu war cemented the 'consumer watch' to pick a strong brand. They don't want to 'invest' in a loser.
Apple has finally broken into mainstream conciseness.
It took Apple decades to develop a brand name that people trust... you can't expect a "search engine" company to deliver a phone.
I think Google's largest competitor is RIM. Apple is in a class of it's own because of it's brand.
Obama pack's a RIM product. He won't give it up.
That is marketing that companies dream of.
The iPhone is a glorified iPod that makes phone calls. How Apple takes on RIM in the next year will decide the future of the company without SJ.

My thoughts may be broken as i've discovered the Nectar D'or by Glenmorangie.
My god, this single malt Scotch is kicking my ass.

Happy new year... can we still say that?

[RichL]

Originally Posted by rain

Apple has brand.
Android has geek fetish.

Apples [sic] and oranges.

Apple is a company, Android is a mobile OS.

Apple has a brand. Google has a brand.

Only geeks care/know that the iPhone runs Mobile OSX. Only geeks care/know that the G1 runs Android.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by Macfabulous

"We will extend an open hand to all those who will unclench their fists" - Go Obama!!!

Bring that iPhone of yours to the White House...

"O" uses a crackberry.