iPhone behind only Nokia and RIM in global smartphone share

[AppleInsider]

Apple maintained the third place position in global unit sales of smartphones, but was passed up by Microsoft's Windows Mobile to become the fourth largest smartphone vendor in terms of operating system platforms as it continues to lead the industry in year over year growth.

Market research firm Gartner released a quarterly report this morning that warned worldwide smartphone sales had slowed to the industry's lowest growth rate ever, just 3.7 percent, in the last quarter of 2008.

"After a strong third quarter with new product introductions, sequential growth slowed down again in the fourth quarter as fewer compelling new products and the worsened economic climate continued to make data plans associated with smartphones out of reach for most consumers," said Gartner research director Roberta Cozza. "In general in 2008, the focus from vendors and operators on increasing their smartphone portfolios remained very strong. Samsung, RIM, HTC and Apple saw their volumes and share increase during 2008, thanks to their ability to offer compelling device experiences and touch interfaces."

Smartphone device share

In terms of units sold by manufacturer, Nokia still clings to its shrinking lead among smartphones; the company's quarterly change of -16.8 percent was the most severe market share retraction of any single handset maker, however.

Apple stands in a strong third place behind Nokia and second place RIM after achieving 111.6 percent year-over-year growth as it brought the iPhone 3G into new markets internationally. Samsung entered the top five vendors for the first time.

"Apple's initial sell-through dropped significantly as sales fell during the fourth quarter," Gartner said. "Nevertheless, Apple maintained its third position in the global rankings."

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Vendor, 4Q08 (Thousands of Units)

Smartphones by OS share

In the summer (third) quarter of last year, at the launch of the iPhone 3G, Apple took a 12.9 percent share of the worldwide market for smartphones, moving the iPhone's OS ahead of the global shipments of all smartphones based on Microsoft's Windows Mobile by 1.8 percentage points. In the fourth quarter, the iPhone 3G slipped back down to fourth place, behind the sum of all manufacturers using Windows Mobile, with 10.7 percent share of all smartphones. However, Apple has more than doubled its previous fourth-quarter share from 2007 of 5.2 percent.

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System, 4Q08 (Thousands of Units)

Windows Mobile, which Gartner said was helped by the Samsung Omnia and touchscreen products from HTC, took back the third-place ranking with a 12.4 percent share. Symbian, which lost 21.6 percent year-over-year, remains in first place ahead of Research In Motion.

Moving away from individual quarters to look at the entire year, Apple has enjoyed a whopping 245.7 percent growth when comparing 2008 against 2007, easily trouncing its closest competitor RIM (96.7 percent).

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Operating System, 2008 (Thousands of Units)

As rumors swirl about more flexible plan pricing from Apple's US partner AT&T, a possible iPhone deal in China and other nations, and the strong possibility of a new model arriving in June, 2009 could be another strong year for the iPhone.

Troubled financial markets and the shrinking growth in smartphones sales in general may pose tough obstacles to overcome, but the established brand reputation of the iPhone, combined with its leading mobile app store, new platform developments in the works, and the third iPhone release are likely to keep the company afloat as other manufacturers struggle to differentiate themselves, much as Apple's Mac sales are outperforming the PC market as a whole.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[anantksundaram]

The market share data are less important than the remarkable 111% growth from 4Q07 - 4Q08 that both Apple's hardware and software achieved.

This during a period in which RIM introduced three new products.

And, if I was Nokia's top management looking at these numbers, I would be very worried. And calling some folks to the carpet.

[surur]

"Troubled financial markets and the shrinking growth in smartphones sales in general may pose tough obstacles to overcome, but the established brand reputation of the iPhone, combined with its leading mobile app store, new platform developments in the works, and the third iPhone release are likely to keep the company afloat as other manufacturers struggle to differentiate themselves, much as Apple's Mac sales are outperforming the PC market as a whole."

Troubled by perceptions of high price, high hardware costs and a stale product line up, Apple is likely to experience further loss of market share and continuing shrinking sales as competition continue to ramp of compelling products.

Apple is reportedly considering reducing prices even further, as they did in Japan, to combat sliding sales and building inventory, which currently runs at a dangerous 2 million.

[surur]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

The market share data are less important than the remarkable 111% growth from4Q07 - 4Q08 that both Apple's hardware and software achieved.

lets see -

iPhone Q4 2007 - $400, only in US and 3 countries in Europe.

iPhone Q4 2007 - $200, in 60+ countries. Sales merely doubled, demand low. Shipments at 4.4 million once again exceed sell though at 4.07 million, just like Q3 shipments of 6.9 million exceeded sell though of 4.7 million.

Apple strategicly decided to increase inventory from 2.2 to 2.5 million in the face of slowing sales and new product launches upcoming.... Sure.....

[Dorotea]

Originally Posted by surur

lets see -

iPhone Q4 2007 - $400, only in US and 3 countries in Europe.

iPhone Q4 2007 - $200, in 60+ countries. Sales merely doubled, demand low. Shipments at 4.4 million once again exceed sell though at 4.07 million, just like Q3 shipments of 6.9 million exceeded sell though of 4.7 million.

Apple strategicly decided to increase inventory from 2.2 to 2.5 million in the face of slowing sales and new product launches upcoming.... Sure.....

Negativity rules !!!!.

Considering the economic news I think the stats are TERRIFIC!

FANGIRLS RULE!

Sorry couldn't help myself in the face of such a dour outlook from the quoted poster.

[monstrosity]

Originally Posted by surur

iPhone Q4 2007 - $200, in 60+ countries. Sales merely doubled,

Did you expect 60 x sales? lol

[Gyokuro]

Given the current economy, iPhone will only continue to grow at this pace if prices come down and/or new data/talk plans are established to stir interest in more casual users. With the first iPhone contracts coming due soon it will be interesting to see how they approach this issue.

[monstrosity]

Originally Posted by surur

"
Troubled by perceptions of high price, high hardware costs and a stale product line up, Apple is likely to experience further loss of market share and continuing shrinking sales as competition continue to ramp of compelling products..

haha Apple are doomed! You guys never give in. Why do you even bother? It must be soul destroying to be continually wrong for over a decade.

[floccus]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

And, if I was Nokia's top management looking at these numbers, I would be very worried. And calling some folks to the carpet.

And those folks would be the upper management who've obviously embarked on failed paths to maintain/increase their overall leadership position. Your suggestion would be like GM management firing its plant managers for making bad cars while the CEO still talks up SUVs.

Anywho, Apple is still maintaining strong growth and has the potential to come out the other end of this whole recession much stronger than the others. The appStore is the current model for hand-held app distribution, the underlying MacOS is showing itself to be better than Windows Mobile by far, and the iPhone itself is the standard for elegant design. Frankly Steve and the others can just sit back and let the users slowly come to them than go around chasing them.

[JeffDM]

Originally Posted by surur

Apple strategicly decided to increase inventory from 2.2 to 2.5 million in the face of slowing sales and new product launches upcoming.... Sure.....

Where does it say they have 2.5 million of them in inventory?

[surur]

Originally Posted by JeffDM

Where does it say they have 2.5 million of them in inventory?

They say they have 2 million, but if we subtract Gartner's sell through numbers from Apple's shipment numbers things look even less rosy.

[RichL]

It'll be interesting to see what the price tag of the new iPhone will be in Europe. The new range of desktops were up by about 25% in price. Will Apple take a profit hit on the iPhone or increase the price?

[TenoBell]

Its really interesting how people like to look at Apple's numbers in a vacuum irrespective of context. In the midst of world economy crisis numbers don't look so rosy. At this point if you are still making a profit from quarter to quarter you are above average.

Originally Posted by surur

They say they have 2 million, but if we subtract Gartner's sell through numbers from Apple's shipment numbers things look even less rosy.

[GQB]

For those interested in what Palm Pre apps are going to look like (and the chance that they'll compare to iPhone apps) check out http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXS3SQauwPE

can you say 'HyperCard'?
I really don't get how they think this is a platform that will compete with iPhone apps.

[Robin Huber]

What is this Symbian on phones? I thought it was one of those ride a dildo machines.

[mjtomlin]

Originally Posted by surur

They say they have 2 million, but if we subtract Gartner's sell through numbers from Apple's shipment numbers things look even less rosy.

Since the release of the iPhone 3G Apple has continuously had 2 million units in the channel worldwide. Which shows that they're selling as many as they're making and keeping that 2 million unit buffer. The original iPhone was out of stock all over the place several weeks before the new iPhone was released last year. This is probably the reason for Apple wanting so many in the channel this time around; as production on the current model dies down, there should be enough inventory until a newer model(s) is released.

[nikon133]

Originally Posted by Robin Huber

What is this Symbian on phones? I thought it was one of those ride a dildo machines.

Nokia's smartphone OS. Goes way back, I think... before that other Symbian

[anantksundaram]

Yikes, I've rarely seen so much errant nonsense crammed into two sentences.

Originally Posted by surur

Troubled by perceptions of high price,

By whom, where? Can you cite any evidence?

Originally Posted by surur

... high hardware costs ....

Says who? Especially, considering their margins are among the highest in the business? Can you point to some evidence?

Originally Posted by surur

... a stale product line up....

According to whom? Compared to whom or what product?

Originally Posted by surur

... Apple is likely to experience further loss of market share and continuing shrinking sales as competition continue to ramp of compelling products.

Can you read numbers? Where does it show loss of share? "Further"? When was the prior share loss? Shrinking sales? Which compelling products are you talking about by which competitor (let's only talk about those actually in the market)? Can you provide some evidence on how their market share is doing?

Originally Posted by surur

Apple is reportedly considering reducing prices even further....

'Reportedly'.... by whom?

Originally Posted by surur

.... as they did in Japan.....

Apple did not. Softbank may have (I am not even sure about that).

Originally Posted by surur

... combat sliding sales.....

Yeah, I am sure sales are sliding even 'further'......

Originally Posted by surur

.... building inventory, which currently runs at a dangerous 2 million.

And, how do you conclude it is 'dangerous?' Can you provide any evidence?

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

Its really interesting how people like to look at Apple's numbers in a vacuum irrespective of context. In the midst of world economy crisis numbers don't look so rosy. At this point if you are still making a profit from quarter to quarter you are above average.

It's that tunnel vision the Internet seems to thrive on.

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Yikes, I've rarely seen so much errant nonsense crammed into two sentences.

By whom, where? Can you cite any evidence?

Says who? Especially, considering their margins are among the highest in the business? Can you point to some evidence?

According to whom? Compared to whom or what product?

Can you read numbers? Where does it show loss of share? "Further"? When was the prior share loss? Shrinking sales? Which compelling products are you talking about by which competitor (let's only talk about those actually in the market)? Can you provide some evidence on how their market share is doing?

'Reportedly'.... by whom?

Apple did not. Softbank may have (I am not even sure about that).

Yeah, I am sure sales are sliding even 'further'......

And, how do you conclude it is 'dangerous?' Can you provide any evidence?

Hilarious! Go get 'em!

[Bergermeister]

Apple is a very new contestant in the smart-phone business, yet look where they are. Also look at how many other makers are jumping on the touch and app-store bandwagons.

Once again, Apple jumped into a market, made a strong showing for itself almost instantaneously, and changed the market for everyone, not just their own customers.

And still the bashers will bash. Gotta love it.

[iVlad]

You might own a blackberry because of work, but to make your life complete you need iPhone. No other phone can do that.

After so many attempts by other companies Apple still owns Music Player Beezwax and soon will own Mobile industry.

[mark2005]

Originally Posted by surur

They say they have 2 million, but if we subtract Gartner's sell through numbers from Apple's shipment numbers things look even less rosy.

Why do you believe Gartner's ESTIMATE over Apple's SEC filing and conference call? Because you're a troll.

Seriously, I have a problem with Gartner's numbers; they're crap. They claim sell-through to end users but provide no methodology over how they determine that. For comparison, Gartner's data for computers and other equipment do not claim sell-through to end users. AFAIK, other companies report sales unit numbers just like Apple does - shipment into the channels, not end users.

Even so, the Apple numbers are consistently low. 4Q07: Apple reports 2.315m; Gartner reports 1.9283m. 4Q08:Apple reports 4.363m and says they reduced channel inventory by 250k, so sell-through should be 4.6m, but Gartner says 4.079m. Something is off, way off.

[hill60]

Was it really only two years ago that Steve Ballmer sat in his little castle of "compelling products" laughing his arse off at Apples audacity.

If Apple really wanted to they could subsidize their handsets via App store profits and annihilate the opposition...

...if they wanted to.

[nikon133]

I'm wondering... what is the smartphones' share in total mobile phones number? RIM, Apple, Windows... are doing only smartphones, but Nokia is doing many "normal" mobile phones... which should differentiate them from others in total mobile phone market even more.

Also... what is definition of smartphone? Many basic phones today have organizer, web access, camera & picture viewer, other gadgets...?

But good for Nokia... and all that with Symbian...

[RichL]

Originally Posted by hill60

If Apple really wanted to they could subsidize their handsets via App store profits and annihilate the opposition...

I doubt that Apple makes any significant profit from the app store. It's all about encouraging people to buy and stay with the hardware.

[ivan.rnn01]

what exclusive deals, lack of exchange, bluetooth, iR etc. are, "inspites" or "becauses"...

[lfmorrison]

Originally Posted by monstrosity

Did you expect 60 x sales? lol

Certainly not. But I think it's fairly certain that, if the iPhone had already been available in the same total number of countries back in 2007 as it was by the end of 2008, then the year-over-year worldwide market share growth figures would not have been nearly as large.

To put it another way, now that Apple is operating in 60+ countries, it would take significantly more effort on their part to reproduce similar year-over-year market share growth figures for 2009, even if there wasn't a worldwide financial crisis.

[trumptman]

This whole analysis is crap because the definition of smart phone has become nebulus and I'm not sure the iPhone itself would stand up to the strictest form of the definition.

There are loads of "feature" phones or "dumb" phones out there now depending upon your word choice and definition. They play videos, have touch screens, let you browse the web and get your email. I own one, an LG Dare and LG isn't even mentioned in this category.

This article talks about the industry as a whole, not just one category.

Why is this important? Because last I checked, Apple had not added back the one feature that was supposed to seperate it from the feature phone category and also part of the reason it should require a data plan, and that is push notification.

Finally, it is clear from that article that there are a lot of phones in the channel no matter who is making them. It should also be clear from those that have analyzed app store data that most apps curiousities rather than something people spend money on and that like with every other phone, people buy one or two apps and move on with their life and using the phone.

Finally, the smaller carriers are fighting back with some insane plans. The best was unlimited everything for $50 a month per phone with no contract. The carriers might not be able to sustain the loss-leader model on phone pricing. We see this dynamic right now happening in the videogame industry where the Wii kicked the hell out of XBOX360 and PS3 when it was supposed to have no chance. To some, those little additional charges keep adding up and make the solution much less competitive to anyone who is not "hardcore." How long can AT&T afford to subsidize the iPhone via more expensive plans when other carriers are starting to give away the store for $50 a month?

[surur]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Yikes, I've rarely seen so much errant nonsense crammed into two sentences.

Hey, its about as valid as the conclusion of the base article.

Read this:

http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/...x-iphone-sales

By whom, where? Can you cite any evidence?

Says who? Especially, considering their margins are among the highest in the business? Can you point to some evidence?

According to whom? Compared to whom or what product?

Can you read numbers? Where does it show loss of share? "Further"? When was the prior share loss? Shrinking sales? Which compelling products are you talking about by which competitor (let's only talk about those actually in the market)? Can you provide some evidence on how their market share is doing?

'Reportedly'.... by whom?

Apple did not. Softbank may have (I am not even sure about that).


Yeah, I am sure sales are sliding even 'further'......

And, how do you conclude it is 'dangerous?' Can you provide any evidence?

I answered your questions point by point earlier, but the forum suddenly became "too busy". I wont repeat myself, but I will put forward my main point -

iPhone Q3 4.7 million sell through
iPhone Q4 4.07 million sell through
iPhone Q1 3.3 million sell though?

[TenoBell]

Originally Posted by trumptman

This whole analysis is crap because the definition of smart phone has become nebulus and I'm not sure the iPhone itself would stand up to the strictest form of the definition. There are loads of "feature" phones or "dumb" phones out there now depending upon your word choice and definition. They play videos, have touch screens, let you browse the web and get your email. I own one, an LG Dare and LG isn't even mentioned in this category.

Their has never been a hard definition for a smartphone. At this point the what all smartphones have in common are an evolving operating system and a software development platform.

Dumb phones don't typically allow for updating the operating system and don't have a software development platform.

Finally, it is clear from that article that there are a lot of phones in the channel no matter who is making them. It should also be clear from those that have analyzed app store data that most apps curiousities rather than something people spend money on and that like with every other phone, people buy one or two apps and move on with their life and using the phone.

There have been over 500 million App Store downloads and roughly 12 million iPhones sold. People have been downloading far more than only two apps.

Finally, the smaller carriers are fighting back with some insane plans. The best was unlimited everything for $50 a month per phone with no contract. The carriers might not be able to sustain the loss-leader model on phone pricing. We see this dynamic right now happening in the videogame industry where the Wii kicked the hell out of XBOX360 and PS3 when it was supposed to have no chance. To some, those little additional charges keep adding up and make the solution much less competitive to anyone who is not "hardcore." How long can AT&T afford to subsidize the iPhone via more expensive plans when other carriers are starting to give away the store for $50 a month?

Sprint and T-Mobile are in a far different position than the Wii. This past quarter Sprint lost 1.3 million subscribers, T-Mobile added 610,000 subscribers. Verizon added 1.4 million subscribers, AT&T added 2.1 million subscribers.

Sprint and T-Mobile are forced to lower their prices to stay competitive, in the case of Sprint to stay in business at all.

[TenoBell]

A couple of problems with the article you've posted. The first problem is that it sets up the iPhone selling 440,000 less units predicted from an educated guess as a sign of a downturn in sales. That's a ridiculous rational.

The other problem with this article is that it gives no other example of another phone performing better than the iPhone in the current economic climate. To prove that the iPhone is too expensive you have to give an example of another phone that is performing better. They attempt to cast the iPhone as being much more expensive than other phones and this is not at all true.

As far as the iPod Touch cannibalizing iPhone sales, Apple has already stated they'd rather have one of their own products cannibalizing sales rather than someone else.

Originally Posted by surur

Hey, its about as valid as the conclusion of the base article.

Read this:

I answered your questions point by point earlier, but the forum suddenly became "too busy". I wont repeat myself, but I will put forward my main point -

iPhone Q3 4.7 million sell through
iPhone Q4 4.07 million sell through
iPhone Q1 3.3 million sell though?

[anantksundaram]

Originally Posted by surur

Hey, its about as valid as the conclusion of the base article.

Read this:


http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/...x-iphone-sales



I answered your questions point by point earlier, but the forum suddenly became "too busy". I wont repeat myself, but I will put forward my main point -

iPhone Q3 4.7 million sell through
iPhone Q4 4.07 million sell through
iPhone Q1 3.3 million sell though?

This is the basis for your claims!?

The article by Dan Frommer is silly at so many different levels. About as informed as your posts. And who is he (and businessinsider) anyway? Some major analyst? Technology prognosticator? Seer? Can you point to any important trends or outcomes that he has called vis-a-vis Apple (or anyone else)? Does he have a huge following, i.e., is he some sort of opinion leader? Lead steer? Does he drive tech trends and buying habits? And what is his forecasting record?

Indeed, the very informed comments following the article -- which you perhaps did not read -- rip apart many of Mr. Frommer's facile assertions. (No need to go through which, since they are all fairly obvious).

Pardon me for thinking this person sounds to me like another blowhard offering his completely unsolicited (and possibly uninformed) views on Apple and iPhone. Just adds to a multitude of those out there, doing not much more than contributing to the noise-to-signal ratio.

[surur]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

A couple of problems with the article you've posted. The first problem is that it sets up the iPhone selling 440,000 less units predicted from an educated guess as a sign of a downturn in sales. That's a ridiculous rational.

The other problem with this article is that it gives no other example of another phone performing better than the iPhone in the current economic climate. To prove that the iPhone is too expensive you have to give an example of another phone that is performing better. They attempt to cast the iPhone as being much more expensive than other phones and this is not at all true.

Given that the iPhone lost market share between Q3 and Q4, it could easily be argued that Apple's stratergy of only having one model and one price point will continue to limit their market, while companies that address the market at various levels, like RIM or the Windows Mobile market in general will have more success.

I mean, how many people would suggest Apple respond to the recession by releasing a cheaper iPhone nano?

[surur]

Originally Posted by anantksundaram

This is the basis for your claims!?

The article by Dan Frommer is silly at so many different levels. About as informed as your posts. And who is he (and businessinsider) anyway? Some major analyst? Technology prognosticator? Seer? Can you point to any important trends or outcomes that he has called vis-a-vis Apple (or anyone else)? Does he have a huge following, i.e., is he some sort of opinion leader? Lead steer? Does he drive tech trends and buying habits? And what is his forecasting record?

Indeed, the very informed comments following the article -- which you perhaps did not read -- rip apart many of Mr. Frommer's facile assertions. (No need to go through which, since they are all fairly obvious).

Pardon me for thinking this person sounds to me like another blowhard offering his completely unsolicited (and possibly uninformed) views on Apple and iPhone. Just adds to a multitude of those out there, doing not much more than contributing to the noise-to-signal ratio.

A bit like your post, which attacks the person, not the points. (Is this the opposite of appeal to authority?)

Or are you suggesting its not the high price which has resulted in Apple sales going down while everyone else's was going up which is the problem, but lack of demand?

Its either one or the other, isnt it?

[TenoBell]

That was the operating system market share not the device market share. As a singular device the iPhone far outsells all other singular smartphones. Nokia, RIM, and Windows mobile make hundreds of phones. As a single device platform the iPhone cannot out compete platforms that have multiple devices.

Apple isn't competing to dominate market share, Apple is competing for profits. Those are two different concepts.

Originally Posted by surur

Given that the iPhone lost market share between Q3 and Q4, it could easily be argued that Apple's stratergy of only having one model and one price point will continue to limit their market, while companies that address the market at various levels, like RIM or the Windows Mobile market in general will have more success.

I mean, how many people would suggest Apple respond to the recession by releasing a cheaper iPhone nano?

[TenoBell]

I don't think you understand what these numbers are saying. You have it all wrong. Everyone's sales have gone down.

Where you saw Apple's market share recede was on a platform basis not a single phone basis. Apple is in fourth place behind Windows Mobile with one phone. Windows Mobile is in third place with the sales of all of its phones combined.

Originally Posted by surur

Or are you suggesting its not the high price which has resulted in Apple sales going down while everyone else's was going up which is the problem, but lack of demand?

Its either one or the other, isnt it?

[surur]

Originally Posted by TenoBell

I don't think you understand what these numbers are saying. You have it all wrong. Everyone's sales have gone down.

Where you saw Apple's market share recede was on a platform basis not a single phone basis. Apple is in fourth place behind Windows Mobile with one phone. Windows Mobile is in third place with the sales of all of its phones combined.

There are very many who said the iphone is going to take over the smartphone world.

They point at the iPod as an example of this.

If you say the iphone will be confined to its MacOS-like niche, your view would be seen as rather contoversial around here I suspect.

BTW between Q3 and Q4, Nokia sales are up (only 90 000, but still up)
RIM sales up 1.64 million
HTC has "record sales" implying they are the highest ever
Samsung went from below 1.2 million to 1.6 million, so also up.
Apple down 700 000.

[mark2005]

Originally Posted by surur

I wont repeat myself, but I will put forward my main point -
iPhone Q3 4.7 million sell through
iPhone Q4 4.07 million sell through
iPhone Q1 3.3 million sell though?

iPhone 3G was launched in Q3 to huge pentup demand, so of course there was a dropoff in subsequent quarters. The only exceptions to this rule are if supply is very constrained at launch, or if major marketing efforts don't occur until later. (For the iPhone 3G, supply was constrained but had resolved itself by Sept, which was still within the same quarter.) This pattern also holds true for computer models, major software releases, car models, etc.

The one point you made that makes some sense is that Apple may have to launch new "phones" more frequently. However, since Apple claims that software is the key, major iPhone software updates on a semi-annual basis (which Apple has not yet done) could capture 50-75% of what a new hardware model would bring.

[mark2005]

Originally Posted by surur

There are very many who said the iphone is going to take over the smartphone world.

They point at the iPod as an example of this.

If you say the iphone will be confined to its MacOS-like niche, your view would be seen as rather contoversial around here I suspect.

Some people may have said it, but Apple never did. They said they wanted 1% of all phone sales (by unit) in their first full year, and they achieved it.

That said, the iPhone has already begun to takeover the smartphone world. All other smartphones are now copying its interface.

This is analogous to the Mac. Though Mac unit sales are only about 5% of all worldwide PC sales, the Mac interface was "copied" and exists on probably 99+% of all worldwide PG sales.