Report: two distinct iPhone models nearing production

[AppleInsider]

A little-known equity research firm is out with a new report this week which could potentially shed some color on recent discoveries in Apple's iPhone 3.0 beta software that suggest two architecturally unique iPhones may be in the cards for this spring.

"Our checks confirm that two versions of iPhones will be introduced this year," Lazard Capital Markets semiconductors analyst Daniel Amir wrote in the opening paragraph of the report. "Production of the new phones should start at the beginning of April and will ramp in May."

More specifically, the analyst said both models are likely to be introduced this June, with one representing a "high-end" version and the other a "low-end" version.

But unlike analyst reports earlier this year, which suggested Apple was developing a scaled down iPhone in addition to a new high-end model as part of a volume play, Amir said he believes the two models will target different geographical regions rather than different classes of consumers.

"We believe it is possible that the two phones will be aimed at different regions," he wrote. "The high-end version is expected in North America and Europe, and the low-end version may be for the BRIC countries [Brazil, Russia, India, and China] or China only."

Amir said the high-end version will have video capability, a better camera and 32GB of storage while the low-end version will include less storage, no video functions, and possibly lack Wi-Fi -- a move which could potentially cater to the demands of Chinese wireless carriers.

It was reported last fall that China Mobile was asking for Apple to deliver iPhones with both Wi-Fi and 3G disabled. However, Apple has thus far failed to reach an agreement to deliver the iPhone to China with China Mobile and is more recently reported to have been seen at the bargaining table with the carrier's smaller rival, China Unicom.

Assuming there's some truth to Amir's report, it could possibly explain why references to two distinct iPhone models were recently uncovered in the first external beta of iPhone Software 3.0, namely "iPhone 2,1" and "iPhone 3,1."

Apple makes changes to the first numeral in these kind of identifier strings to distinguish products from their predecessors or family members only when there's a significant architectural difference between the two. Despite some cosmetic changes, the original iPhone and iPhone 3G were largely based on the same component architecture, and are thus identified by the strings "iPhone 1,1" and iPhone 1,2."

As part of his report this week, Amir also told clients that iPhone shipments for the first calendar quarter of the year ending tomorrow could come in as high as 4 million thanks to record shipments for the month of March.

"Our checks suggest that March iPhone shipments have been much stronger than previously expected and may reach 1.5 million units, which is the highest level over the past five months," he said. "Total iPhone shipments in [first quarter of 2009] are therefore tracking slightly higher than Street expectations of 3-3.5 million units and could reach 3.8 to 4 million units."

Based on a similar round of checks, the analyst said second quarter shipments could surge as high as 8 million units, a range well above Street expectations. This would reportedly include 5 million of the current iPhone 3G models that would be sold between the months of April and June.

"April shipments, including both the current and new versions of the iPhone, could increase 40%-50% month-over-month, and be up another 20%-30% month-over-month in May," he wrote. "Accounting for the new versions of the iPhone shipping in April, total iPhone shipments in [the second quarter] could reach 7-8 million units, which equates to approximately 3-4 times last year’s shipments during the same period."

Amir provided no explanation on how he believes Apple will manage to sell 5 million existing iPhone 3Gs in the three-month period when consumers are likely to delay their smartphone purchases in anticipation of new iPhone models.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[MacWhore]

cool

[xwiredtva]

One is for Verizon. Check the chips.

[mdriftmeyer]

Originally Posted by xwiredtva

One is for Verizon. Check the chips.

What part of the exclusive 5 year Telco deal did I miss?

[Morky]

Originally Posted by xwiredtva

One is for Verizon. Check the chips.

I like your thinking.

[hittrj01]

Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer

What part of the exclusive 5 year Telco deal did I miss?

It never was fully disclosed as to how long the exclusive contract was, but I agree with your thought process in that Verizon will not be getting a model anytime soon. I believe AT&T will do anything and everything in their power to prevent that.

[teckstud]

Yawn- give me a new distinct iMac model and then we can talk.

[JohnnyKrz]

Originally Posted by hittrj01

It never was fully disclosed as to how long the exclusive contract was, but I agree with your thought process in that Verizon will not be getting a model anytime soon. I believe AT&T will do anything and everything in their power to prevent that.

It wasn't disclosed? Then it must just be coincidence that we remember hearing 5 years from numerous (ie, ALL) sources.

[Tauron]

The content has been deleted.

Please don't contribute something insulting like this again.

[GeekLawyer]

Originally Posted by xwiredtva

One is for Verizon. Check the chips.

If Verizon were getting the iPhone this year, in just over two months, I guarantee you they wouldn't keep it a secret. Not gonna happen, not for a few more years (if then).

[iVlad]

Originally Posted by Tauron

The chinese should get the bigger iPhone to compensate for the size of their p...

Oh Snap....lol

[meelash]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKrz

It wasn't disclosed? Then it must just be coincidence that we remember hearing 5 years from numerous (ie, ALL) sources.

Not true. In the keynote with the ATT (at that time Cingular) exec, it was just stated as a "multi-year" contract. That means this year is the first possible year that it could be over. Here's hoping!

Does China Mobile use the same standard as Verizon (CDMA or whatever it is?)?

All the new iPhone goodness will just depress me unless a Verizon model is released . But I don't think Apple would be lame enough to release a Verizon version without Wi-fi, etc.

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

... our checks confirm that two versions of iPhones will be introduced this year ... both models are likely to be introduced this June, with one representing a "high-end" version and the other a "low-end" version. ... Assuming there's some truth to Amir's report, it could possibly explain why references to two distinct iPhone models were recently uncovered in the first external beta of iPhone Software 3.0...

Or, conversely, this guy could read AppleInsider and the entire report could be based on the previous published reports about the uncovered product reference numbers.

Speculation based on speculation?

[floccus]

Originally Posted by meelash

All the new iPhone goodness will just depress me unless a Verizon model is released . But I don't think Apple would be lame enough to release a Verizon version without Wi-fi, etc.

I would laugh my ass of if they gave all you Verizon winers an iPhone w/o WiFi

But this is actually a rather interesting take on all the speculation to date of what those product references might be. And if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. Either way, w/ or w/o Steve in front of the cameras, WWDC is going to be interesting

[meelash]

Originally Posted by floccus

I would laugh my ass of if they gave all you Verizon winers an iPhone w/o WiFi

There's no whining going on here (or wining, for that matter), I'm just hoping they do go to Verizon because I'm locked into a family plan w/ Verizon that I can't get out of. I'm not sure why you have a problem with that, but maybe it's time for you to get your head out of your a**.

[okcubko]

I agree, I think this is the best explanation as to why there's iPhone 2,1 and 3,1

I think the iPhone nano speculation is not going to materialize but making a Chinese version is a more than logical business move...

[jpferreira]

"The high-end version is expected in North America and Europe, and the low-end version may be for the BRIC countries [Brazil, Russia, India, and China] or China only.

Amir said the high-end version will have video capability, a better camera and 32GB of storage while the low-end version will include less storage, no video functions, and possibly lack Wi-Fi -- a move which could potentially cater to the demands of Chinese wireless carriers."

yeah right... mr. daniel amir is clearly on drugs.

or maybe he's not human, he's a monkey throwing crap reports at us..

think people, this report is just lame...

[Hattig]

Originally Posted by Tauron

The chinese should get the bigger iPhone to compensate for the size of their p...

Well they're a developing country, that's why their paychecks are small.

[oneaburns]

I just want to know what the thing is gonna look like. The one thing that has been hampering me from upgrading my original iPhone to the 3g is the plastic, curved back. I like the flat surface for when I'm typing on it while it's on my desk and I like the aluminum. I'm hoping they go back to that or something similar.

[hillstones]

Originally Posted by floccus

I would laugh my ass of if they gave all you Verizon winers an iPhone w/o WiFi

But this is actually a rather interesting take on all the speculation to date of what those product references might be. And if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. Either way, w/ or w/o Steve in front of the cameras, WWDC is going to be interesting

True. Verizon would disable all the standard features like they do on other phones and try and charge people for it.

[Gyokuro]

Verizon will not be getting iPhone. They are busy ramping up for the BlackBerry 9630.

[Roos24]

It was a smart move from Apple to go with AT&T and thus with the world standard gsm.

Verizon has its own proprietary standard that is not compatible anywhere. BB had to squeeze a gsm chip in their Storm next to the CDMA chip, otherwise people couldn't use it on their overseas business trips.

And even though it may be a better system, I believe that CDMA is a dead end street (e.g. Sony Beta).

I for one hope that Apple will not spend any money to try and put a CDMA chip in the iPhone.

[Morky]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKrz

It wasn't disclosed? Then it must just be coincidence that we remember hearing 5 years from numerous (ie, ALL) sources.

Actually, the most commonly heard estimate for the contract is to 2010. Five years is by no means a certain assumption.

[me1812]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

A little-known equity research firm ... Lazard Capital Markets

When did one of largest and oldest securities underwriter in the United States become "[a] little known equity research firm"?

[Morky]

Originally Posted by oneaburns

I just want to know what the thing is gonna look like. The one thing that has been hampering me from upgrading my original iPhone to the 3g is the plastic, curved back. I like the flat surface for when I'm typing on it while it's on my desk and I like the aluminum. I'm hoping they go back to that or something similar.

Maybe on your desk that's true, but the 3G is way more comfortable in your hand than the original. A friend and I were just comparing that tonight and it was undeniable.

[Morky]

Originally Posted by Roos24

It was a smart move from Apple to go with AT&T and thus with the world standard gsm.

Verizon has its own proprietary standard that is not compatible anywhere. BB had to squeeze a gsm chip in their Storm next to the CDMA chip, otherwise people couldn't use it on their overseas business trips.

And even though it may be a better system, I believe that CDMA is a dead end street (e.g. Sony Beta).

I for one hope that Apple will not spend any money to try and put a CDMA chip in the iPhone.

As an Apple stockholder, I hope like hell Apple will put a CDMA chip in the iPhone.

[Bergermeister]

Originally Posted by me1812

When did one of largest and oldest securities underwriter in the United States become "[a] little known equity research firm"?

Lazard Capital Markets was just recently created; thus it is little known.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lazard_Capital_Markets

Whether the parent is big or small, young or old, the off-spring is young and small-seeming.

---

On topic:

I hope the new iPhone has video capabilities, but that Apple focuses on making better still images.

I'm half-way through a contract on my 3G that I don't mind breaking...

[Silencio]

Originally Posted by Morky

As an Apple stockholder, I hope like hell Apple will put a CDMA chip in the iPhone.

As an Apple stockholder, I hope Apple doesn't sink precious R&D dollars into yesterday's tech. Let Verizon have another crack at it when they and ATT and everybody else adapt LTE for their 4G networks over the next couple of years.

Besides, Verizon had first dibs on the iPhone, and they blew it. Let 'em suffer a while longer.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by meelash

Not true. In the keynote with the ATT (at that time Cingular) exec, it was just stated as a "multi-year" contract. That means this year is the first possible year that it could be over. Here's hoping!

To add to your comment, it was the Verizon exec who stated that Apple came to them first with an exclusive 5 year deal. I wonder what they think about that deal now. Even my Mother, whom I affectionately describe as 'techtarded', wants to jump into the smartphone community. Which means breaking away from Verizon.

Does China Mobile use the same standard as Verizon (CDMA or whatever it is?)?

I can find GSM and UMTS Frequency ranges for different regions and carriers, but not for CDMA-based networks.

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSM_frequency_ranges
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UMTS_frequency_bands
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Mobile
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TD-SCDMA

All the new iPhone goodness will just depress me unless a Verizon model is released . But I don't think Apple would be lame enough to release a Verizon version without Wi-fi, etc.

I don't think so either; however, if they did back down on negotiations to get a device on China Mobile they might be able to persuade AT&T to allow a more limited device on Verizon and/or Sprint that has no video recording, WiFi, etc. Just throwing it out there, though I seriously doubt Apple or AT&T would want that for the US.

Originally Posted by floccus

I would laugh my ass of if they gave all you Verizon winers an iPhone w/o WiFi.

That would actually be pretty funny.

[quinney]

This analyst is as bullish about the iPhone as Abramsky is bearish. It is
remarkable that they both inhabit the same reality. How can a person
believe either one of them?

[nvidia2008]

Originally Posted by quinney

This analyst is as bullish about the iPhone as Abramsky is bearish. It is
remarkable that they both inhabit the same reality. How can a person
believe either one of them?

Pure non-dualism. http://www.nonduality.com/ ...It may or may not make sense to you right now. Both bullish and bearish states do not actually exist in reality. ...No I am not puffing a bong right now...

[quinney]

Originally Posted by nvidia2008

Pure non-dualism. http://www.nonduality.com/ ...It may or may not make sense to you right now. Both bullish and bearish states do not actually exist in reality. ...No I am not puffing a bong right now...

Who needs a bong? Trying to grasp that kind of abstraction gives me an acid flashback.

( but thanks for trying to help )

[DHKOsta]

Originally Posted by Morky

As an Apple stockholder, I hope like hell Apple will put a CDMA chip in the iPhone.

You must mean that you don't like money.

As an Apple stockholder, I'd settle for some quick gain and dump the stock as soon as such an announcement drove the price up. Then I'd buy it again during the inevitable pullback that would result once everyone realized that running data at an iPhone-user level through a CDMA antenna made the phone so hot that the average user couldn't comfortably hold it and by the same token significantly shortened the life of its components. We're talking a boatload of warranty expense and lawsuits far in excess of "hairline cracks."

I'm inclined to speculate that nobody fully understood how much data iPhone users would use. While Apple surely understands now the nightmare that engineering a CDMA iPhone would be, I doubt it was always of such concern. They lucked out when talks with Verizon fell through and frankly, so did Verizon.

I feel for those of you who need the massive expanse of coverage that the CDMA network in North America provides. For now, GSM is where the iPhone needs to be.

[Constable Odo]

What does China have against WiFi? Totally absurd. Are the carriers over there that greedy? It seems like the larger, densely populated cities in China would certainly benefit from WiFi use. Using just 3G on all iPhones would overload their networks instantly. Then they'll say that something is the matter with Apple's iPhone.

[floccus]

Originally Posted by Constable Odo

What does China have against WiFi? Totally absurd. Are the carriers over there that greedy? It seems like the larger, densely populated cities in China would certainly benefit from WiFi use. Using just 3G on all iPhones would overload their networks instantly. Then they'll say that something is the matter with Apple's iPhone.

China has a communist government. Communist governments (esp. China) control access to the internet to block content they feel is inappropriate. If the phone had no WiFi, then internet usage would be forced through the wireless carrier. If that carrier is China Mobile (which is state-owned) then the restrictions can be tighter and the individual monitoring greater. Apple will have to ignore that this will occur, because it could leader to higher levels of oppression, and that's PR that Apple certainly does not want.

[meelash]

Originally Posted by floccus

China has a communist government. Communist governments (esp. China) control access to the internet to block content they feel is inappropriate. If the phone had no WiFi, then internet usage would be forced through the wireless carrier. If that carrier is China Mobile (which is state-owned) then the restrictions can be tighter and the individual monitoring greater. Apple will have to ignore that this will occur, because it could leader to higher levels of oppression, and that's PR that Apple certainly does not want.

Except that the Chinese government controls the internet as well, so it's not like Wi-fi is going to magically be uncensored. I think there must be some other explanation...

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by meelash

Except that the Chinese government controls the internet as well, so it's not like Wi-fi is going to magically be uncensored. I think there must be some other explanation...

Don't forget that WiFi can also be used without access to a government controlled Internet.

[floccus]

Originally Posted by meelash

Except that the Chinese government controls the internet as well, so it's not like Wi-fi is going to magically be uncensored. I think there must be some other explanation...

Thats why I said the restrictions can be TIGHTER. Its well known that the Chinese government isn't perfect in their internet censorship. But a mobile carrier can set it up so only white-listed sites could be accessed over their network. Its not a situation Apple would really want to be in, but its a possibility, and thus I threw it out as speculation for people to ponder.

[meelash]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Don't forget that WiFi can also be used without access to a government controlled Internet.

Umm... I would guess that the government censors at the level of the main internet pipes (<- not sure that's the right word) in and out of the country and not on an individual level at every house. So unless you're talking about in-country rogue wireless networks that are not connected to the rest of the world, I don't see how wi-fi would be any less censored than cell-fi.

[bigpics]

I want the one with the jet pack AND the pony.

The rest of you can have the one the size of a postage stamp with no screen or buttons that projects a hologram and comes with a "3 area switch" on the headset with 437 easy to memorize button combos.