An alternative argument for new iPhones at WWDC

[AppleInsider]

A prominent blogger is firing back at a Wall Street analyst who predicted this week that Apple's upcoming developers conference won't see the introduction of new iPhones, offering a simple argument as to why the company may be compelled to introduce its new hardware at the start of the conference.

On Wednesday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote that, "While some investors may be expecting Apple to launch redesigned iPhones at WWDC, we do not anticipate the launch in early June. Rather, we expect Apple to host a special event in late June or early July to launch a family of iPhones."

Responding to the assessment, which he called "goofy," Apple follower and Daring Fireball author John Gruber said the arrival of new iPhones at WWDC is "probably the easiest and most obvious Apple prediction of the year." He noted that last year's iPhone 3G made its debut at the conference so there's no reason to suggest this year will see anything different.

In addition, Gruber pointed to recent reports that have identified a built-in video camera and magnetometer (digital compass) as two new hardware-related features expected to turn up this year's iPhones. "[T]hat means new APIs, and if Apple wants to have WWDC sessions for the new hardware-specific APIs, they have to announce the hardware first," he said.

Apple earlier this week expanded its list of WWDC sessions, though a cursory review reveals nothing conspicuous about the existing lineup of iPhone labs or instructional presentations. Still, there's no shortage of other reasons why Apple is more likely to stick to recent tradition and clue its followers into its 2009 handset plans in early June.

For instance, the company has on average announced availability dates for its iPhones three to four weeks ahead of time so that it can funnel the necessary launch information and procedures to its partners around the world without extensive safeguards, and so that its customers have time to plan out their purchase and associated wireless contracts.

Apple is also expected to see more intense competition in the emerging smartphone space this year with Palm's touchscreen Pre device rumored for an introduction a day or so before the start of WWDC. It would be uncharacteristic of the company to allow a fledgeling rival to generate headlines weeks on end without revealing its own hand and stealing any thunder Palm may muster up, some argue.

Then there's the all-too-true argument waged by several AppleInsider forum members Wednesday that its imperative that Apple, at some point or other, demonstrate it can successfully launch a major new product like the third-generation iPhone without the charisma and showmanship that only Jobs can bring to the table.

"My gut feeling is that we’ve seen the last Steve Jobs keynote address," said Gruber. "I don’t think he’s leaving the company — and his medical leave has been scheduled to run through the end of June — but I wonder if he’s done as the company’s spokesman."

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[justflybob]

And the thought plickens....

[ivan.rnn01]

Because they always did.

[akf2000]

Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01

Because they always did.

Compelling!

[wizard69]

That is my take, a minor iPhone update really has no reason to debut at WWDC. Now a tablet or a more capable iPhone is a different story altogether.

The other thing is that if there is a family of devices coming it would be to big of a distraction at WWDC. Remember this meeting is focused on developers, they wouldn't appreciate a lost of focus for revved items. So again I see a device release only if it is significantly more capable than the current release hardware. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone revs get released the week before or after WWDC. Instead at WWDC we will see an iTablet.


Dave

[ivan.rnn01]

Originally Posted by akf2000

Compelling!

Alas! We'll see to what extent...

[bdogg]

Something has to happen with iPhone next month:
- 2G users are coming out of first contract.
- OS 3.0 is arriving
- 3G stocks are being run low and sold at discount
- Shiller said before that June was the product cycle for iPhone
This analyst is getting paid to say stupid things. You don't have to be an expert to see from the above that something is going to happen in June iPhonewise.

Jobs may introduce a new Tablet later or the end of June when he is due back. That would seem to make sense to me. 3G iPhone launch was pretty lowbrow. Nothing much new in terms of wow-factor. Maybe Shiller and co. can do the same with the new model and let Steve do the new tablet if it arrives at the end of June.

[hmurchison]

I don't believe a GD thing Munster says. In 3 weeks he's going to look like a fool.

[fryke]

I don't see the "fella" reference, but if you mean that they always were announced/released at WWDC, you're wrong.

1G iPhone was announced at MWSF 2007 and released in June 2007.
2G iPhone (3G) was announced at WWDC 2008 in June and released in July 2008.

That could very well mean the 3G iPhone would be announced at the end of June and be released in August.

But what about the idea of being able to move from one iPhone contract to the next? I got my iPhone 3G in September 2008 with a one-year Orange Switzerland contract in the hopes that I can get a third generation iPhone in September 2009, renewing my contract for another year. (My personal wishes of course don't mean anything to Apple here...)

[8CoreWhore]

WWDC sold out in record time because of the iPhone developers... The App Store is a cash cow for Apple - they must address the iPhone Devs at the Dev Conference. Duh!

[ivan.rnn01]

like that

[walshbj]

Originally Posted by wizard69

That is my take, a minor iPhone update really has no reason to debut at WWDC. Now a tablet or a more capable iPhone is a different story altogether.

The other thing is that if there is a family of devices coming it would be to big of a distraction at WWDC. Remember this meeting is focused on developers, they wouldn't appreciate a lost of focus for revved items. So again I see a device release only if it is significantly more capable than the current release hardware. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone revs get released the week before or after WWDC. Instead at WWDC we will see an iTablet.


Dave

Actually, I think NOT announcing revved hardware at WWDC would be a much larger distraction, with everyone wondering if there's a problem. I think it would be a dark cloud over the entire conference. Announce it a week after? No way.

Announcing the new hardware won't distract developers from 3.0. Munster is bored and lonely.

[toolrox923]

I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.

I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.

[crees!]

That's what she said.

[JohnnyKrz]

There are new features in iPhone 3.0 that are related to the new hardware, so I would imagine they would release it so that they can discuss developing for those things at the, you know, developer's conference. Then developers can go home and add these new features before the release at the end of the month or in July. I don't see any other way. None of the reasons I've heard for them to wait for SJ to announce it make any sense.

If they are actually going to release the mythical tablet or netbook, then that would probably be where SJ makes his re-appearance. I agree with whoever said that they probably wouldn't release a new product line at WWDC because that would distract from iPhone 3.0 and Snow Leopard and wouldn't need special development if it runs plain OS X. A new iPhone, however, is coming without a doubt so why would they need a special event unless the 'kitchen sink' is something really groundbreaking that none of us can even imagine. Even still, I think they would want to discuss developing apps for that unicorn at the conference.

[JohnnyKrz]

Originally Posted by toolrox923

I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.

I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.

You wouldn't have to sign a new contract if you don't buy a new phone. You can go month to month until the new phone arrives.

[gsteeno]

Originally Posted by toolrox923

I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.

I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.

If your original contract runs out, wouldn't you just pay month-to-month until the new iPhone comes out? The voice / data plan is not subsidized because you signed on for 2 yrs, just the hardware.

[coasterswim]

I don't see any reason they can't announce the new iPhone and have it available the same day. With the original phone, they had to get all the FCC approval and whatnot. Then when they added the 3G capability, they had to do the same thing. If you're just boosting the processor, ram, camera, and storage, I can't imagine that would require a new stamp of approval from the FCC, so they could instantly roll it out.

[quinney]

Originally Posted by toolrox923

I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.

I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.

doesn't it just go month-to-month when the two years are over?

[Denton]

Originally Posted by toolrox923

I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.

I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.

This is no concern. If the update comes after your contract ends, you'll just have to wait a bit to get a new iPhone: you're not obliged to re-sign a new contract as soon as your old one expires. For instance, I've been under contract only 5 of the last 8 years.

Edit: ya, what they said ^^

[rtdunham]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

...Apple follower and Daring Fireball author John Gruber ...pointed to recent reports that have identified a built-in video camera and magnetometer (digital compass) as two new hardware-related features...

I thought it had been shown the present camera has video capabilities and that providing video in a new camera would be a software mod. No? The answer to that question would seem to reflect on the value of Gruber's insights.

[slcossio]

I think it's time for Apple to show the world they can manage without Steve Jobs, to show people that Apple CAN work when Steve Jobs decides to leave, and I think this is a perfect opportunity to do that.

I don't think Jobs is leaving Apple anytime soon, but he's got to start backing up slowly so that the other big shots at Apple know how to run the company later on.

[Virgil-TB2]

I tend to agree with Gruber on this, but my one concern or reservation is simply the amount of time the keynote could possibly go on for.

There is a *lot* to cover with Snow Leopard and if rumours are to be believed, two new iphones to introduce, and possibly a tablet. There is no way they can get anything but the breeziest details announced with all that on the table.

Personally I would prefer separate announcements for OS-X and iPhone related software, and perhaps even a third event whenever they have new hardware to talk about. It would give us obsessive Apple followers some more events to look forward to at minimum and would make everything a little less stressful and a little more clear.

The last two sets of announcements seemed rushed, abbreviated, and un-focussed with all the different people walking on and off stage. If Phil is going to get up and stutter again, and all that sh*t has to be covered, with multiple execs etc. it sounds like a generally uncomfortable and possibly disastrous situation.

Maybe they will f*ck it up and *that* will cause the return of Steve?

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by rtdunham

I thought it had been shown the present camera has video capabilities and that providing video in a new camera would be a software mod. No? The answer to that question would seem to reflect on the value of Gruber's insights.

The current iPhone camera is capable (after jailbreaking) of very low-end 15 fps, highly pixelated video. So while this is "okay" to people used to cell phone video, to Apple this means "not capable of doing video (properly)."

The rumour is that the new iPhone has a much better camera (3.5MP), which would do acceptable video (from Apple's POV). What's not clear is:

• whether or not there are going to be two versions of new iPhone
• whether or not just the "pro" one will get the better camera
• whether or not both of them will get the new camera.
• whether the "pro" model will get even better than 3.5MP

All these are open questions right now.

[charlituna]

Originally Posted by wizard69

That is my take, a minor iPhone update really has no reason to debut at WWDC.

I agree with the notion that any new hardware will be minor. slightly better camera, perhaps a 24 or 32 gb storage model, maybe a new color option. but there's no new cellular system to warrant a huge overhaul.

I do think anything will be announced at WWDC, just to shut the gossip sites up.

the bulk of the announcement will be about the finals of Snow Leopard and the iPhone 3.0 software.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by toolrox923

I would like to see the next generation of iPhones introduced before the end of June to coincide with the original iPhone contract which will be ending after June.

I don't want to have to re-new my 2 year contract with my original iPhone if i plan on buying the next generation iPhone anyways.

If it is like any other cell phone I have gotten via an upgrade for the past 25-30 years, I haven't had to renew any contract until I got a new phone. That is, my service was continued at the current rate as an open-ended contract. As far as I know, nobody has gotten a notice of renewal after their contracts expire, or have been required to re-sign. (As such, I still have my evening and weekend 'free' calls starting at 6 pm and not the commonly 9 pm found today.)

Once your contract period expires, you can cancel your service without any penalties. It is when you upgrade to a newer model, will you be required to sign a new, or renew your contract for another 2-year term, which commenced from the moment you activated you new phone.

[MacTel]

Why waste the perfect opportunity to intro the iPhone at WWDC? The iPhone is driving the latest and greatest development on the OSX platform (AppleTV, iPod, iPhone, Mac). I'm sure that a lot of decisions on Snow Leopard's development consider all of the devices that run the core OS (e.g. OpenCL). Of course the new iPhone and iPod Touch will be intro'd at WWDC.

[SirROM]

Originally Posted by JohnnyKrz

There are new features in iPhone 3.0 that are related to the new hardware, so I would imagine they would release it so that they can discuss developing for those things at the, you know, developer's conference. Then developers can go home and add these new features before the release at the end of the month or in July. I don't see any other way. None of the reasons I've heard for them to wait for SJ to announce it make any sense.

OTOH, large developers with a special relationship with Apple probably already have access to more ”complete“ versions of the beta software and test hardware (such as companies like Tom Tom perhaps?) and have likely already been testing their software on the new iron.

I agree that there will likely be a 2-3 week period after announcement before the new iPhones are available to the public, but Apple is already working with ”showcase“ developers, who will also likely get a small amount of stage time at the WWDC keynote to demo their apps running on the new hardware.

[FastLaneJB]

I think the new iPhone needs to be available for sale the day that all those 2G first day buyers contracts expire. Sure they can roll on for a month but the point is those people are then entiled to upgrade.

If there is no new Apple iPhone to buy they might be tempted to get a new phone that isn't an iPhone. For instance they might get a Palm Pre and change networks.

If it comes out on that day then it's much more likely all those people that queued for the first iPhone will then queue for the 3rd iPhone on launch day. It would be highly in Apple's / AT&T's interests to tie these people up again for 2 more years plus the good publicity of huge launch queues again.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by MacTel

Why waste the perfect opportunity to intro the iPhone at WWDC? The iPhone is driving the latest and greatest development on the OSX platform (AppleTV, iPod, iPhone, Mac). I'm sure that a lot of decisions on Snow Leopard's development consider all of the devices that run the core OS (e.g. OpenCL). Of course the new iPhone and iPod Touch will be intro'd at WWDC.

+1

Excuse my incredulity but do developers "really" want to pay $1300 to go to WWDC and not see new hardware?

Let's make no bones about it the iPhone/iTouch are generating profits so massive former Mac developers like Pangea are going iPhone only (it makes sense for gaming companies). Thus we have to look at who really is the bankable start here. Mac OS or iPhone OS? I think we all know the answer to that one.

It's time to unveil the new iPhone hardware, deliver a feature complete iPhone SDK 3.0 and Snow Leopard and let the developers work through the RC and prepare for final ship.

[ewiener]

What is the pricing for a new model iPhone if I signed a contract last July when I purchased an iPhone 3G? Do I qualify for the same discount price as a new subscriber if I extend my contract for another two years? Or is there there no upgrade pricing discount for those currently under contract?

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by gsteeno

If your original contract runs out, wouldn't you just pay month-to-month until the new iPhone comes out? The voice / data plan is not subsidized because you signed on for 2 yrs, just the hardware.

You can, but from Apple and AT&T's PoV they are best to get it out right as close as possible to that time to give iPhone owners less cause to jump ship. However, I'd think that the original iPhone owners, who bought the device for $600, are probably the least likely group to go with another device, so Apple can wait a few weeks without a real risk of losing sales. Even now, they would be eligible for the upgrade price within AT&T without penalty.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Excuse my incredulity but do developers "really" want to pay $1300 to go to WWDC and not see new hardware?

I would hope they go for the software workshops first and foremost. However, since Apple is making most of their money from the iPhone it does seem like it should be showcased so developers can plan their v3.0 apps for the HW changes.

[dkoff]

just not in person.

my prediction is that the roles will be switched and instead of steve calling phil schiller onto some iChat as he's done many time in the past, that Phil will engage with Jobs via iChat. this way, Steve stays at home, recoups and still gets a chance to make a big introduction from the comfort of his home.

slam dunk for everyone.

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by crees!

(iPad) That's what she said.

Jeez I hope they don't go with "iPad." Dumbest. Name. Ever.

All it suggests is a product designed to sop up various disgusting human effluents.

[pairof9s]

All those original iPhones' 2-yr contracts expire at the end of June (at least those that didn't upgrade to 3G). Apple & AT&T would certainly not want these owners to wander over to Pre or whatever because there is no new iPhone hardware to entice them to renew.

I wager at least an announcement at WWDC of new iPhones rather than at a later date.

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by dkoff

just not in person.

my prediction is that the roles will be switched and instead of steve calling phil schiller onto some iChat as he's done many time in the past, that Phil will engage with Jobs via iChat. this way, Steve stays at home, recoups and still gets a chance to make a big introduction from the comfort of his home.

slam dunk for everyone.

cool.

This would also totally make sense if they are introducing a new iChat or a new video-chat capable iPhone.

Although ... if Steve is not in perfect health, appearing on a web cam might make him look even worse than he actually is, which might be bad PR. No one looks very good on a webcam, except when they appear in the ads for webcams.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by ewiener

What is the pricing for a new model iPhone if I signed a contract last July when I purchased an iPhone 3G? Do I qualify for the same discount price as a new subscriber if I extend my contract for another two years? Or is there there no upgrade pricing discount for those currently under contract?

They may offer a discount over the "in contract" upgrade price, but I doubt that it will be the same as the "out of contract" price since AT&T is subsidizing the device quite a bit. The price difference is $200 right now between the two.

I believe their contract cancelation fee is $175 with $5 dropping off each month. If you have had your device for 12 months before buying the cancelation fee would be $115. I wonder if AT&T would allow you do get it for $100 more than the out of contract free. If you have to cancel your account I think you lose your number, unless you sign up for a different carrier and transfer the number. Regardless, it all seems like more trouble than it's worth. If AT&T doesn't have a way for in contract iPhone 3G users to get the next iPhone at reduced rate I'll just buy it as the in-contract price. I don't want to, but I'm not going to go through that rigamarole to save $85.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by dkoff

steve jobs WILL be at the keynote
just not in person.

my prediction is that the roles will be switched and instead of steve calling phil schiller onto some iChat as he's done many time in the past, that Phil will engage with Jobs via iChat. this way, Steve stays at home, recoups and still gets a chance to make a big introduction from the comfort of his home.

slam dunk for everyone.

I fully expect Jobs will come out on stage looking like this...

[carloblackmore]

That's the first thing I thought when I read about Munster's sudden reversal of expectations.

[Techslacker]

Methinks Munster really knows better but has gotten caught up in the desktop OS wars. There's alot of hype behind Windows 7 and alot of fanboys(both Windows and OSX) have tried to make too much out of it and forget that Apple has another market now that means more to them than the desktop OS market. This is of course the iphone.

And in case you didn't pick up on it, yes, I labeled Munster as a fanboy.