Cheaper iPhone may show as early as Monday

[AppleInsider]

Citing only "people familiar with the initiative," the Financial Times claims that Apple plans to release an iPhone model with a substantially lower retail price in order to boost sales, and that the introduction could happen as soon as the opening day of WWDC.

"The anticipated new phone is likely to start production in July with the third version of the iPhone operating system, also expected to be released next week as a free upgrade for existing iPhone owners," the article stated, noting that Apple declined to offer any comment.

It's been previously reported that Apple is expected to deliver a series of new iPhones, including a possible 4GB low-end model. Mainstream new iPhones are expected to deliver a faster processor, more working RAM, faster mobile and WiFi networking, an improved camera and an electronic compass, in addition to the software features to be delivered in iPhone 3.0

Analysts have been predicting that Apple would cut the upfront price of the iPhone for some time, but the idea that the company would announce a cheaper version as early as Monday is provocative in that Apple faces little competition that would compel such a significant price cut.

The Financial Times cited Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty as saying, "it's either a $50 or a $100 cut" based on a survey of consumers that indicated a $50 drop "could increase demand by 50 per cent and a $100 cut by 100 per cent."

Huberty is somewhat infamous for delivering the worst analysis on Wall Street when it comes to forecasting Apple's future. For Q1 2007 she predicted iPod sales nearly 20% lower than the Street's consensus figures and the company's actual sales, and she expected revenues that were a nearly a billion short of Apple's actual performance of $7.5 billion.

Last fall, Huberty cited general weakness in the "global macro-economic environment" for dramatically lowering her price targets for Apple stock, although the company's actual results since then have proven seemingly recession-resistant in marked contrast to the PC industry in general.

[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]

[bitzandbitez]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Citing only "people familiar with the initiative," the Financial Times has announced that Apple plans to release an iPhone model with a substantially lower retail price in order to boost sales, and that the introduction could happen as soon as the opening day of WWDC.

"The anticipated new phone is likely to start production in July with the third version of the iPhone operating system, also expected to be released next week as a free upgrade for existing iPhone owners," the article stated, noting that Apple declined to offer any comment.

AppleInsider has previously reported that Apple is expected to deliver a series of new iPhones, including a possible 4GB low-end model. Mainstream new iPhones are expected to deliver a faster processor, more working RAM, faster mobile and WiFi networking, an improved camera and an electronic compass, in addition to the software features to be delivered in iPhone 3.0

Analysts have been predicting that Apple would cut the upfront price of the iPhone for some time, but the idea that the company would announce a cheaper version as early as Monday is provocative in that Apple faces little competition that would compel such a significant price cut.

The Financial Times cited Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty as saying, "it's either a $50 or a $100 cut" based on a survey of consumers that indicated a $50 drop "could increase demand by 50 per cent and a $100 cut by 100 per cent."

Huberty is somewhat infamous for delivering the worst analysis on Wall Street when it comes to forecasting Apple's future. For Q1 2007 she predicted iPod sales nearly 20% lower than the Street's consensus figures and the company's actual sales, and she expected revenues that were a nearly a billion short of Apple's actual performance of $7.5 billion.

Last fall, Huberty cited general weakness in the "global macro-economic environment" for dramatically lowering her price targets for Apple stock, although the company's actual results since then have proven seemingly recession-resistant in marked contrast to the PC industry in general.

APPLE GIVE ME MY iPHONE... 3G and my Ichat and NO DATA PLAN!!!!!
my iPHONE 3g SUCKS BIG TIME DROPPED CALLS , ECHO.. ECHO... ECHO...

ATT MONOPOLY MUST....
HELP!!!!....

[bitzandbitez]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Citing only "people familiar with the initiative," the Financial Times has announced that Apple plans to release an iPhone model with a substantially lower retail price in order to boost sales, and that the introduction could happen as soon as the opening day of WWDC.

"The anticipated new phone is likely to start production in July with the third version of the iPhone operating system, also expected to be released next week as a free upgrade for existing iPhone owners," the article stated, noting that Apple declined to offer any comment.

AppleInsider has previously reported that Apple is expected to deliver a series of new iPhones, including a possible 4GB low-end model. Mainstream new iPhones are expected to deliver a faster processor, more working RAM, faster mobile and WiFi networking, an improved camera and an electronic compass, in addition to the software features to be delivered in iPhone 3.0

Analysts have been predicting that Apple would cut the upfront price of the iPhone for some time, but the idea that the company would announce a cheaper version as early as Monday is provocative in that Apple faces little competition that would compel such a significant price cut.

The Financial Times cited Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty as saying, "it's either a $50 or a $100 cut" based on a survey of consumers that indicated a $50 drop "could increase demand by 50 per cent and a $100 cut by 100 per cent."

Huberty is somewhat infamous for delivering the worst analysis on Wall Street when it comes to forecasting Apple's future. For Q1 2007 she predicted iPod sales nearly 20% lower than the Street's consensus figures and the company's actual sales, and she expected revenues that were a nearly a billion short of Apple's actual performance of $7.5 billion.

Last fall, Huberty cited general weakness in the "global macro-economic environment" for dramatically lowering her price targets for Apple stock, although the company's actual results since then have proven seemingly recession-resistant in marked contrast to the PC industry in general.

APPLE GIVE ME MY iPHONE... 3G and my Ichat and NO DATA PLAN!!!!!
my iPHONE 3g SUCKS BIG TIME DROPPED CALLS , ECHO.. ECHO... ECHO...

ATT MONOPOLY MUST....
HELP!!!!....

[bungamunji]

Huberty is so full of it! You can tell she arbitrarily picked the numbers she used. 50 or 100 dollar cut? Well yeah, Apple usually uses numbers that look nice. A price that ends in 49 or 99 is a pretty safe assumption. The thing that kills me is the 50% and 100% increase in demand that goes along with that. So, apple drops a mere 50 bucks off the iphone price. All of a sudden, 50% more people want an iPhone? Says who? Same thing with 100. But yeah, I guess as an analyst, saying demand going up is another safe bet. A lot of people are waiting for the new phone.

But seriously. It's cliche that analysts and the like are full of it, but usually they're more wordy and ambiguous when they lie to us. This is just sad.

And yes. I did register just to say this. I've been a reader for years but always managed to avoid joining the forums. Oh great. Now I'm going to waste so much time on here now that I joined. Oh well. Haha.

[bungamunji]

Huberty is so full of it! You can tell she arbitrarily picked the numbers she used. 50 or 100 dollar cut? Well yeah, Apple usually uses numbers that look nice. A price that ends in 49 or 99 is a pretty safe assumption. The thing that kills me is the 50% and 100% increase in demand that goes along with that. So, apple drops a mere 50 bucks off the iphone price. All of a sudden, 50% more people want an iPhone? Says who? Same thing with 100. But yeah, I guess as an analyst, saying demand going up is another safe bet. A lot of people are waiting for the new phone.

But seriously. It's cliche that analysts and the like are full of it, but usually they're more wordy and ambiguous when they lie to us. This is just sad.

And yes. I did register just to say this. I've been a reader for years but always managed to avoid joining the forums. Oh great. Now I'm going to waste so much time on here now that I joined. Oh well. Haha.

[bungamunji]

Originally Posted by bitzandbitez

APPLE GIVE ME MY iPHONE... 3G and my Ichat and NO DATA PLAN!!!!!
my iPHONE 3g SUCKS BIG TIME DROPPED CALLS , ECHO.. ECHO... ECHO...

ATT MONOPOLY MUST....
HELP!!!!....

No data plan? How do you plan on using iChat? Wifi? Then why do you need an iPhone?

You think at&t is a monopoly? Why don't you use that anger to fuel your buying decisions and get an iPod touch instead. Or go with Verizon, T-mobile or Sprint. You have options. Don't yell because you can't get what you want. Join the club. And please. Calm down.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by bungamunji

And yes. I did register just to say this. I've been a reader for years but always managed to avoid joining the forums. Oh great. Now I'm going to waste so much time on here now that I joined. Oh well. Haha.

Welcome to the other part of the forum. You are dead on about this analyst. I can’t think of a good reason for Apple to release a cheap iPhone or announce a reduced rate for the current iPhone a day before the official announcement. Unless Apple has a special event planned for the iPhone announcement I can’t see that happening, but even then it seems silly to do on a Monday.

[iBill]

What's keeping me from switching from Sprint is the fact that AT&T doesn't have a plan that meets my needs. It really has little to do with the upfront price of the iPhone.

[akhomerun]

a cheaper iphone or any smartphone seems irrelevant to me. the service cost of any smartphone compared to a data-free standard phone service will equal or exceed the cost of the smartphone every year. apple owes it to themselves to get out of the at&t exclusive deal as soon as they possibly can.

how else do you think the razr sold so well? (speaking of that, where the hell is motorola? haven't seen a smartphone from them since the Q that i've heard of)

[bluedalmatian]

iphone demand seem strong so i dont see any reason to drop the price. macson the other hand...

[nvidia2008]

Suspiciously random figures pulled out of thin air.

I think there will be 16GB and 32GB, with some modest "re-pricing", if at all.

I think all this iPhone Nano stuff is nonsense, there's no need to and it will dilute out the goodness of Apps and stuff and make things confusing.

If anything maybe there will be a 8GB for catering to "the depressed economic conditions etc. etc."

So we have 8GB, 16GB and 32GB, with iPod Touches bumped to 16GB, 32GB, and 64GB when the iPhones start shipping sometime in July.

I predict definitely an announcement about the new hardware of iPhone on Monday.

Well, even if there is no hardware, I'm getting my 3.0 software yay yay yayyyy........ Not that I am a heavy phone user, but new software, in this case an entirely new OS version, can't wait......

[palegolas]

I don't think it's that far fetched that at some point there will be a cheaper iPhone. Now would be a perfect time, since Apple has two generations in the back, business model is working, the low price segment all want it, and a third generation coming. They could have streamlined the production of the 2'nd generation, cutting as much cost as possible, perhaps using a cheaper display (like they do with MacBook) and less storage. Basically just a trimmed down 2nd gen iPhone.

I'm still using a first generation iPhone since 1,5 years, and I must say it's the first time I've ever been using a phone for more than a year and it still feels fresh, fast, modern, works fine, up to date, and I'm not constantly looking at new phone models. So if Apple can just streamline the production of an old iPhone where production is steady already, I think it'll be good enough for a lot of people.

[Bageljoey]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I can’t think of a good reason for Apple to release a cheap iPhone or announce a reduced rate for the current iPhone a day before the official announcement.

If this were true, it wold seem to me that the timing of these leaks would indicate that Apple was concerned about the press that the Pre might get over the weekend. If there were indications that a significantly cheeper up-front cost iPhone was coming it might stem the breathless Pre reviews. Or, if stem is too strong a word, it might at least cause reporters to mention something like "while the new Pre is slick and has multitasking, it may be facing stiff competition from the expected new iPhone models including a low cost phone."

I agree with others that knocking 50 or even 100 dollars off the up-front cost makes little difference to the true cost of the phone over a two year contract; but I don't agree that this would be insignificant. My wife, who is quite intelligent and well educated (if not that interested in tech), became much more interested in the iPhone when the up front cost dropped to $200 despite the increase in the data charges over the life of the phone that offset the cheeper price.

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by bungamunji

Huberty is so full of it! You can tell she arbitrarily picked the numbers she used.…But seriously. It's cliche that analysts and the like are full of it, but usually they're more wordy and ambiguous when they lie to us. This is just sad.

Unless you subscribe or a client of their stock reporting services, you have no right to be so indignant. Only their bosses or more important, investors that made buying/selling/holding-off positions re their stock portfolio are so-entitled.

Analysts are monitored continuously. Accuracy is paramount. An analyst's career is predicated on how well he/she performs. Brokers and those that delve in the stock market use analysts' reports as a guidance in their recommendations to their clients or for making purchase decisions respectively. Obviously, if your analyst/broker errs on their recommendation and more importantly causes you to lose monies, you go elsewhere.

Note that analysts are not reviewers. You go to someone else to get those 'lies'.
Analyzing Analyst Recommendations. http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/analysts.htm

[SpamSandwich]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Unless you subscribe or a client of their stock reporting services, you have no right to be so indignant. Only their bosses or more important, investors that made buying/selling/holding-off positions re their stock portfolio are so-entitled.

Analysts are monitored continuously. Accuracy is paramount. An analyst's career is predicated on how well he/she performs. Brokers and those that delve in the stock market use analysts' reports as a guidance in their recommendations to their clients or for making purchase decisions respectively. Obviously, if your analyst/broker errs on their recommendation and more importantly causes you to lose monies, you go elsewhere.

Note that analysts are not reviewers. You go to someone else to get those 'lies'.
Analyzing Analyst Recommendations. http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/analysts.htm

You don't have to be a client to guess that Huberty may be (a) a bold, contrarian AAPL stock analyst, (b) green, (c) willfully ignorant, (d) drinking on the job. You decide.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by bitzandbitez

APPLE GIVE ME MY iPHONE... 3G and my Ichat and NO DATA PLAN!!!!!
my iPHONE 3g SUCKS BIG TIME DROPPED CALLS , ECHO.. ECHO... ECHO...

ATT MONOPOLY MUST....
HELP!!!!....

I feel your pain. Some friends in NYC have to put their head out their apartment to get a signal that holds. It's a real problem/issue.

[teckstud]

Is this the Wal-Mart phone they're talkin?

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by iBill

What's keeping me from switching from Sprint is the fact that AT&T doesn't have a plan that meets my needs. It really has little to do with the upfront price of the iPhone.

Aren't you at all curious about the Pre at Sprint which synch your iTunes?

[vinney57]

Originally Posted by Bageljoey

If this were true, it wold seem to me that the timing of these leaks would indicate that Apple was concerned about the press that the Pre might get over the weekend. If there were indications that a significantly cheeper up-front cost iPhone was coming it might stem the breathless Pre reviews. Or, if stem is too strong a word, it might at least cause reporters to mention something like "while the new Pre is slick and has multitasking, it may be facing stiff competition from the expected new iPhone models including a low cost phone."

I agree with others that knocking 50 or even 100 dollars off the up-front cost makes little difference to the true cost of the phone over a two year contract; but I don't agree that this would be insignificant. My wife, who is quite intelligent and well educated (if not that interested in tech), became much more interested in the iPhone when the up front cost dropped to $200 despite the increase in the data charges over the life of the phone that offset the cheeper price.

oops wrong post

[vinney57]

Originally Posted by Abster2core

Unless you subscribe or a client of their stock reporting services, you have no right to be so indignant. Only their bosses or more important, investors that made buying/selling/holding-off positions re their stock portfolio are so-entitled.

Analysts are monitored continuously. Accuracy is paramount. An analyst's career is predicated on how well he/she performs. Brokers and those that delve in the stock market use analysts' reports as a guidance in their recommendations to their clients or for making purchase decisions respectively. Obviously, if your analyst/broker errs on their recommendation and more importantly causes you to lose monies, you go elsewhere.

Note that analysts are not reviewers. You go to someone else to get those 'lies'.
Analyzing Analyst Recommendations. http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/analysts.htm

You have got to be fucking joking.

There's only one company that I have followed for 20 odd years _ Apple_ and I can tell you that NEVER EVER has an analyst provided any information that was either CORRECT or insightful. Without exception they are tragically late in every story cycle and quite frankly just 'make shit up.'

There have been many clear example where the analyst has based his opinion ON THE RAMBLINGS OF THIS FORUM.

To suggest that analysts are anything other creators of fanciful narratives designed to churn client investments is fucking insulting. Ask any broker (that isn't looking after your money)

[Abster2core]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

You don't have to be a client to guess that Huberty may be (a) a bold, contrarian AAPL stock analyst, (b) green, (c) willfully ignorant, (d) drinking on the job. You decide.

No. But printing such (as in the UK, for example) could be construed as libel.

And there is no reason for such commentary. AI is a rumor site that picks up editorial that in most cases re 'analysts' reports', are really privileged information. The reports are generally not public information per se as most financial firms use independent analysts and publish it for their clients' eyes only.

Analysts are paid to perform. They don't perform, they don't work. Their efforts are not product reviews for public commentary. One may not agree with an analysts findings, but to personally slam their character is totally uncalled for; especially if you don't know wtf you are talking about.

[LookingUp]

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

You don't have to be a client to guess that Huberty may be (a) a bold, contrarian AAPL stock analyst, (b) green, (c) willfully ignorant, (d) drinking on the job. You decide.

(e) incompetent (f) on the take by hedge funds (g) irrelevant

[Enigmafan420]

Wow! A WHOLE $100 drop?!? KEWL D00D!

Seriously, does anyone think this is going to increase ownership by 100%?!?

Obviously the true cost is paying for AT$T's crappy service.

I have 2 3Gs, 2 other phones, and unlimited "texting" and my phone bill is well over $200 per month or $4,800 over the life of the contract. Add my two $200 phones and I get to $5,200.

Does ANYONE think dropping this to $5,000 is really gonna be a deal maker for anyone

[villageindian]

Originally Posted by solipsism

I can’t think of a good reason for Apple to release a cheap iPhone or announce a reduced rate for the current iPhone.........

I speculated on the MR forums that the only way that Apple would do this is if it wants to achieve the following for 4 devices with different configurations.

I see Apple coming out with these devices to have footholds in markets like India and China, which have shown high expectations towards the iPhone. The iPhone failed in India simply because of the price point. Therefore, the low-end models are for geographic segmentation as revenues (India, China, other places) while the high-end models are catered towards marketshare as volumes (US predominantly). This way, Apple hits both ends of the global market in one shot. This is something that MS and others cannot counter at all.

Of course, you might be entirely right as well. Apple would not do a cheap iPhone at all.

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Welcome to the other part of the forum. You are dead on about this analyst. I can’t think of a good reason for Apple to release a cheap iPhone or announce a reduced rate for the current iPhone a day before the official announcement. Unless Apple has a special event planned for the iPhone announcement I can’t see that happening, but even then it seems silly to do on a Monday.

because someone finally beat some common sense into steve jobs

if apple wants to expand market share they have to release a low end product that is priced right. my wife wanted an 8GB and i bought her a 16GB just because. she has maybe 2GB of stuff on there and i don't think she's ever hit 2GB on the data plan even with me streaming internet radio a few times a week.

you think the wal mart people are going to want to spend $200 - $300 on a cell phone?

[GTL215]

Originally Posted by teckstud

Aren't you at all curious about the Pre at Sprint which synch your iTunes?

engadget claims the iTunes syncing is extremely hackish. I wouldn't expect Pre syncing to last very long, frankly.

[mrtotes]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

if apple wants to expand market share they have to

From Apple's historic behaviour it's clear that they are more interested in a quality product than achieving mass market acceptance in a short period.

[Virgil-TB2]

Originally Posted by AppleInsider

... The Financial Times cited Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty as saying, "it's either a $50 or a $100 cut" based on a survey of consumers that indicated a $50 drop "could increase demand by 50 per cent and a $100 cut by 100 per cent."...

I find this really hard to believe.

I don't know anyone who is stopped from buying an iPhone by the initial price. It's expensive but not hugely so and it's not out of line with other common consumer electronic devices. Given that the major part of the cost is the contract, you'd have to be an idiot to care about a hundred bucks here or there on the price when you are paying more than that each month in fees for a two or three year contract.

Everyone I know that's currently "waiting" to buy an iPhone (when the price gets better), is concerned with the contract price only and will buy immediately when the contract gets down to a reasonable level.

Most people don't want to pay anything close to the 70-100 bucks a month the iPhone ends up costing you, and they don't use enough data to justify it anyway. Only when the fees for use change will there be anything like broad adoption.

[NOFEER]

what about this
china group includes a lower priced 4gb
non china group 16 32 maybe a lower priced 8 with new "inards"
the reporter makes no sense.

BUT
its not the price of the phones its the cost of the data plan that keeps regular phone users from moving up, apple and att know this it just supply/ demand econ
until the total costs come down the market won't grow ( can't relie on taking from other smart phone carriers, their contracts are as long as ATT) especially in a recession

[PatsFan83]

Originally Posted by palegolas

I'm still using a first generation iPhone since 1,5 years, and I must say it's the first time I've ever been using a phone for more than a year and it still feels fresh, fast, modern, works fine, up to date, and I'm not constantly looking at new phone models. So if Apple can just streamline the production of an old iPhone where production is steady already, I think it'll be good enough for a lot of people.

And guess what? You'll have a "new" phone when 3.0 rolls out...Pretty sweet!

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by GTL215

engadget claims the iTunes syncing is extremely hackish. I wouldn't expect Pre syncing to last very long, frankly.

"extremely hackish"?- because it works so well? which is what the NY Times said.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by mrtotes

From Apple's historic behaviour it's clear that they are more interested in a quality product than achieving mass market acceptance in a short period.

Then why all the obsession of market share gains for both OS and MACs when these measly changes move from 10 to 12 percent?

[PatsFan83]

Originally Posted by Enigmafan420

Wow! A WHOLE $100 drop?!? KEWL D00D!

Please don't talk/type like that. It makes us think you are or act like a 10 year old.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

because someone finally beat some common sense into steve jobs

if apple wants to expand market share they have to release a low end product that is priced right. my wife wanted an 8GB and i bought her a 16GB just because. she has maybe 2GB of stuff on there and i don't think she's ever hit 2GB on the data plan even with me streaming internet radio a few times a week.

you think the wal mart people are going to want to spend $200 - $300 on a cell phone?

This is the classsic RAZR issue when you only have one version of a phone- it gets stale. The cellphone markwet is extremely fickle. I'vebeen saying for the last 2 years that there needs to be more than 1 version. And now we will finally get it.

[ITFinanceGuy]

Originally Posted by akhomerun

a cheaper iphone or any smartphone seems irrelevant to me. the service cost of any smartphone compared to a data-free standard phone service will equal or exceed the cost of the smartphone every year. apple owes it to themselves to get out of the at&t exclusive deal as soon as they possibly can.

how else do you think the razr sold so well? (speaking of that, where the hell is motorola? haven't seen a smartphone from them since the Q that i've heard of)

Another way of thinking of this exclusive deal is at this point, AT&T needs Apple, not so much the other way around, so Apple is in the position of strength in these negotiations. That means if the true cost holding people back is the data plan pricing (which I agree w/ you fully), I would say that Apple is in a strong position to negotiate AT&T to providing lower cost plans to help drive adoption.

Being that I am about to jump onto the iPhone bandwagon, coming from Sprint, that is what I am hoping for, as the cost of the iPhone itself upfront really is not a concern at all for me. I'm just looking at getting the monthly cost as low as I can.

[PatsFan83]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I feel your pain. Some friends in NYC have to put their head out their apartment to get a signal that holds. It's a real problem/issue.

Isn't that a problem with all ATT 3G phones? You can always switch to Edge.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by PatsFan83

Please don't talk/type like that. It makes us think you are or act like a 10 year old.

The is not a grammar blog. We know what he means. You are just fro m a diff generation.

[mark2005]

Originally Posted by solipsism

Welcome to the other part of the forum. You are dead on about this analyst. I can’t think of a good reason for Apple to release a cheap iPhone or announce a reduced rate for the current iPhone a day before the official announcement. Unless Apple has a special event planned for the iPhone announcement I can’t see that happening, but even then it seems silly to do on a Monday.

From this and other posts, you seem to be missing the fact that WWDC starts on Monday. And the keynote is on Monday at 10am PST.

[teckstud]

Originally Posted by PatsFan83

Isn't that a problem with all ATT 3G phones? You can always switch to Edge.

I guess but why bother when your paying for that 3G contract? I'm amazed by this problem still. AT&T keeps adding more and more phones to its 3G network and advertising relentlessly for them.

[PatsFan83]

Originally Posted by teckstud

I guess but why bother when your paying for that 3G contract? I'm amazed by this problem still. AT&T keeps adding more and more phones to its 3G network and advertising relentlessly for them.

Yeah it solves the problem but isn't the answer.